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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 15 Jun 2024 at 01:57 Created: 

Climate Change

The world is warming up, with 2023 being by far the hottest year since record keeping began and 2024 shaping up to be hotter yet. But these changes only involve one or two degrees. What's the big deal?

The amount of energy required to raise the temperature of one liter of water by one degree is one kilocalorie (kcal). Scaling up, the amount of energy required for a one-degree increase in the water temperature of the Gulf of Mexico is 2,434,000,000,000,000,000 kcals. That's 25 million times more energy than released by the WW-II atomic bomb that destroyed the city of Hiroshima and killed more than 100,000 people.

So, for every one degree increase in water temperature, the Gulf of Mexico takes on 25-million atomic bombs worth of new energy, which is then available to fuel hurricanes and other storms. Maybe a one-degree rise in temperature is a big deal.

Created with PubMed® Query: (( "climate change"[TITLE] OR "global warming"[TITLE] )) NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

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RevDate: 2024-06-13

Bao Y, Han A, Gele T, et al (2024)

Climate change reduces elevational and latitudinal differences in spring phenology of pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Bulter).

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)03994-9 [Epub ahead of print].

The pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Bulter, Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae), as an ectotherm, temperature plays a crucial role in its development. With climate change, earlier development of insect pests is expected to pose a more frequent threat to forest communities. Yet the quantitative research about the extent to which global warming affects pine caterpillar populations is rarely understood, particularly across various elevations and latitudes. Spring phenology of pine caterpillars showed an advancing trend with 0.8 d/10a, 2.2 d/10a, 2.2 d/10a, and 3.3 d/10a under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively. There was a maximum advance of 20 d in spring phenology of pine caterpillars during the 2090s, from mid-March to early March, and even late February. This study highlighted the significant advance in spring phenology at elevations >1000 m and lower latitudes. Consequently, the differences in elevational and latitudinal gradients were relatively small as the increasing temperatures at the end of the 21st century. And the average temperature in February-March was effective in explaining theses variability. These findings are crucial for adapting and mitigating to climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-13

Viji R, Yi Y, Xueyuan W, et al (2024)

Evaluate climate change and anthropogenic activities influencing geochemical variations in sediment between and within the avulsion period in the Lower Yellow River avulsion channels.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(24)01310-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The geochemical data from sediments in avulsion channels provide historical evidence of climate change and human-induced alterations in river basin environments. The present study focused on the particle size of sediments in cores and the level of geochemical variation in avulsion channels of the Lower Yellow River Delta (YRD), China. The sediment samples were collected in a depth range of 20-400 cm in avulsion channels. The collected samples were analyzed for sediment particle size and geochemical composition using standard methods. The results demonstrated rapid increases in agriculture practices, rainfall pattern changes, and terrestrial sediment runoff reduction in river basins after the 1960s. The reduced sediment loads in the Sanmenxia Reservoir significantly changed the sediment grain size and geochemical levels in the avulsion channel from August 1960.8 to January -1961.1. In particular, TC, TN, and C/N levels decreased with increasing sediment depth. The C/N values of <12 denoted completely reduced terrestrial sources of organic matter in the channel during the August 1960- January 1961 period compared to the July 1953- August 1960 period. The two-way ANOVA p-values were (p<0.016-p<0.001) strong between the avulsion periods but had no significant variation within the avulsion periods. We emphasize that this study provides a close interplay of different historical periods of geochemical variation in avulsion channel sediments in the alluvial fan YRD, and we argue that the evolution of the middle upstream river basin was subjective by climate change and human developmental actions, which impacted the YRD. In particular, reservoir-interrupted water flow and sediment reduction impacts associated with geochemical fluctuations are documented in the YRD.

RevDate: 2024-06-13
CmpDate: 2024-06-13

D'Ambrosio M, Locke T, R Hendricks-Sturrup (2024)

Addressing Climate Change-Induced Tick-borne Lyme Disease Patterns Through Data-Driven 'One Health' Policy.

Journal of public health management and practice : JPHMP, 30(4):E157-E160.

RevDate: 2024-06-13

Dočkalová K, Stuchlík E, Hamerlík L, et al (2024)

Cold mountain stream chironomids (Diptera) of the genus Diamesa indicate both historical and recent climate change.

Environmental entomology pii:7692858 [Epub ahead of print].

Chironomids of the genus Diamesa (Meigen, 1835, Diptera: Chironomidae) inhabit cold, oxygen-rich running waters. We have investigated the presence of Diamesa and other freshwater macroinvertebrates at 22 stream sampling sites in 3 European high mountain regions (the Central Pyrenees, the Ötztal Alps, and the Tatra Mountains) to establish suitable temperature conditions for Diamesa dominance. It has been generally accepted that their high abundance was linked to the presence of glaciers; however, we have shown that in the Tatra Mountains, where there are no glaciers, the conditions for the dominance of Diamesa species are created due to permanent snowfields, the geographical orientation of the valley and shading by the surrounding high peaks. The historical connection of Diamesa to glaciers was investigated from the paleolimnological records of subfossil chironomid assemblages from the Bohemian Forest, where glaciers disappeared before or during the Late Glacial period. As expected, water temperature seems to be the main driver of Diamesa distribution, and we determined that the relative abundance of Diamesa species was significantly higher at the sites with a mean July water temperature below 6.5 °C. The Diamesa-dominated stream communities seems to be endangered due to ongoing climate warming and this assumption is supported by our paleolimnological results from the Bohemian Forest lakes, where Diamesa has disappeared due to warming of lake inflows at the beginning of the Holocene. These findings strengthen the former suggestions that some Diamesa species could be used as an indicator for tracking recent environmental changes in vulnerable ecosystems of cold mountain streams.

RevDate: 2024-06-13

Ortula NWA, Alcober AMC, Travieza DEC, et al (2024)

Filipinos and Philippine government on public health vis-à-vis climate change: an interactive proposal.

Journal of public health (Oxford, England) pii:7692304 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2024-06-13
CmpDate: 2024-06-12

Hannah L, Irvine A, Brito-Morales I, et al (2024)

To save the high seas, plan for climate change.

Nature, 630(8016):298-301.

RevDate: 2024-06-12
CmpDate: 2024-06-12

Ros A, A Brinker (2024)

Thermotactic behaviour in lacustrine and riverine forms of Salmo trutta and its relevance to an emerging parasitic disease (PKD) in the wake of climate change.

Scientific reports, 14(1):13539.

The thermotactic response of brown trout (Salmo trutta) was examined with the goal to investigate potential effects of the emerging temperature-dependent fatal trout disease PKD (proliferative kidney disease). First the differences in cold-water preferences of two forms of brown trout, lacustrine (migratory) and riverine, were determined. Second, it was studied whether this preference was changed in fish infected with PKD. The experiment involved a one-week habituation period at 14 °C in a two-chamber runway followed by a week of 3 °C temperature difference between the two runways. The fish could freely move between lanes via an opening at the end where food was provided. The temperature manipulation was repeated twice, and there were 3 trials per experimental group. All fish developed a clear spatial preference in the test. Lacustrine trout demonstrated a preference for warmer water, while riverine trout preferred cooler water. This may increase the risk to PKD in the lacustrine form. Most strikingly, riverine trout experimentally exposed to Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, the parasite that causes PKD, demonstrated stronger cold-seeking behaviour than control fish. Cold seeking behaviour suggests the occurrence of a disease-induced behavioural chill response, which may play an important role in disease recovery. This demonstrates the significance of protecting river connectivity and cold-water sanctuaries as management strategies for preserving salmonid populations in a warming climate.

RevDate: 2024-06-12

Wang G, Cai W, A Santoso (2024)

Variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole post-2100 reverses to a reduction despite persistent global warming.

Nature communications, 15(1):5023.

Previous examination of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) response to greenhouse warming shows increased variability in the eastern pole but decreased variability in the western pole before 2100. The opposing response is due to a shallowing equatorial thermocline promoting sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the east, but a more stable atmosphere decreasing variability in equatorial zonal winds that weakens SST variability in the west. Post-2100, how the IOD may change remains unknown. Here we show that IOD variability weakens post-2100 in majority of models under a long-term high emission scenario to 2300. Post-2100, the atmosphere stability increases further and persistent ocean warming arrests or even reverses the eastern Indian Ocean shallowing thermocline. These changes conspire to drive decreased variability in both poles, reducing amplitude of moderate, strong and early-maturing positive IOD events. Our result highlights a nonlinear response of the IOD to long-term greenhouse warming under the high emission scenario.

RevDate: 2024-06-12

Tu Y, Yao Z, Guo J, et al (2024)

Predicting the potential risk of Caragana shrub encroachment in the Eurasian steppe under anthropogenic climate change.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)04073-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and human activities drive widespread shrub encroachment in global grassland ecosystems, particularly in the Eurasian steppe. Caragana shrubs, the primary contributors to shrub encroachment in this region, play a crucial role in shaping the ecosystem's structure and function. Future changes in the suitable distribution range of Caragana species will directly affect the ecological security and sustainable socio-economic development of the Eurasian steppe ecosystem. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict Caragana shrub-dominated plant communities' current and future distribution in three major steppe subregions: the Black Sea-Kazakhstan steppe, the Tibetan Plateau steppe, and the Central Asian steppe. We assessed the potential risk of Caragana shrub encroachment by predicting changes in the suitable distribution area of 19 Caragana shrub species under future climate changes. Our research findings suggest that the expansion of Caragana species in different subregions of the Eurasian steppe is influenced by the effects of climate change in various ways. The distribution of Caragana species is primarily influenced by precipitation and temperature, and the global human modification (ghm) has a significant impact on the Central Asian and Tibetan Plateau subregions. Minimal changes are expected in the Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregion, a slight increase on the Tibetan Plateau, and a substantial rise in the Central Asian subregion, which suggests a higher potential risk of Caragana species shrub encroachment in that area. Our research provides valuable insights into the response of Caragana shrub encroachment to changing climates and human activities. It also has implications for the sustainable management of different areas of the vast Eurasian steppe ecosystem.

RevDate: 2024-06-12

Baykara Mat ST, BN Yilmaz (2024)

Is awareness of climate change a predictor of eco-anxiety? Research within the scope of nursing students.

Nurse education today, 140:106274 pii:S0260-6917(24)00184-9 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Understanding nursing students' awareness of climate change and its impact on their anxiety levels is crucial in representing a significant research area for the sustainability of healthcare services and the development of strategies to address climate change.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to determine nursing students' awareness of global climate change and eco-anxiety levels. Additionally, it seeks to uncover the relationship between these two factors.

DESIGN: During the academic year 2022-2023, this research was conducted with nursing students at a university in Istanbul, utilizing a cross-sectional and exploratory correlational design. The study involved 390 nursing students at the same university, aiming to reach the entire population without using any sampling method. Valid data were obtained from 374 students. The Student Information Form, University Students' Climate Change Awareness Scale and the Eco-anxiety Scale used as instruments for data collection. Subsequently, the data underwent analysis in a computational environment utilizing descriptive statistical methods and Pearson correlation analysis.

RESULTS: Most of the participants were female and single. The mean "total global climate change awareness" of the students was 75.072 ± 15.094, and the mean "general eco-anxiety" of the students was 1.158 ± 0.629. A weak positive relationship was found between the total global climate change awareness and general environmental concerns of the students participating in the study at r = 0.233 (p = 0.000 < 0.05). The level of awareness of climate change explains 5 % of nursing students' eco-anxiety levels.

CONCLUSION: This study emphasizes a significant relationship between climate change awareness and increased ecological anxiety. Filling a gap in the field due to the lack of specific research focusing on nursing students highlights the importance of maintaining awareness to prevent ecological anxiety from reaching undesirable levels. This approach is crucial in actively encouraging nurses to contribute to developing educational curricula and environmentally friendly health policies.

RevDate: 2024-06-12

Kazi DS, Katznelson E, Liu CL, et al (2024)

Climate Change and Cardiovascular Health: A Systematic Review.

JAMA cardiology pii:2820068 [Epub ahead of print].

IMPORTANCE: Climate change may increase the risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes by causing direct physiologic changes, psychological distress, and disruption of health-related infrastructure. Yet, the association between numerous climate change-related environmental stressors and the incidence of adverse cardiovascular events has not been systematically reviewed.

OBJECTIVE: To review the current evidence on the association between climate change-related environmental stressors and adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

EVIDENCE REVIEW: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched to identify peer-reviewed publications from January 1, 1970, through November 15, 2023, that evaluated associations between environmental exposures and cardiovascular mortality, acute cardiovascular events, and related health care utilization. Studies that examined only nonwildfire-sourced particulate air pollution were excluded. Two investigators independently screened 20 798 articles and selected 2564 for full-text review. Study quality was assessed using the Navigation Guide framework. Findings were qualitatively synthesized as substantial differences in study design precluded quantitative meta-analysis.

FINDINGS: Of 492 observational studies that met inclusion criteria, 182 examined extreme temperature, 210 ground-level ozone, 45 wildfire smoke, and 63 extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, dust storms, and droughts. These studies presented findings from 30 high-income countries, 17 middle-income countries, and 1 low-income country. The strength of evidence was rated as sufficient for extreme temperature; ground-level ozone; tropical storms, hurricanes, and cyclones; and dust storms. Evidence was limited for wildfire smoke and inadequate for drought and mudslides. Exposure to extreme temperature was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, but the magnitude varied with temperature and duration of exposure. Ground-level ozone amplified the risk associated with higher temperatures and vice versa. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, were associated with increased cardiovascular risk that persisted for many months after the initial event. Some studies noted a small increase in cardiovascular mortality, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, and hospitalizations for ischemic heart disease after exposure to wildfire smoke, while others found no association. Older adults, racial and ethnic minoritized populations, and lower-wealth communities were disproportionately affected.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Several environmental stressors that are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change are associated with increased cardiovascular risk, but data on outcomes in low-income countries are lacking. Urgent action is needed to mitigate climate change-associated cardiovascular risk, particularly in vulnerable populations.

RevDate: 2024-06-12

Monteiro Ramos N, P Castro (2024)

The climate battles of ideas: Minority discourses in readers' comments to climate change articles in the Portuguese press.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

Today, the dominant climate change discourses affirm its anthropogenic nature and the urgency for policies. However, minority discourses remain active in the worldwide debate, refining arguments beyond simple denial-as shown regarding formal/official discourses of the United States and European far-right parties. This makes it necessary to examine the public understanding of climate change in everyday, informal minority discourses, looking at how they work for broadening societal space for "quarantining" the transformative potential of climate change meanings/policies. For this, we analyze readers' comments on climate change articles from two Portuguese newspapers, drawing from the frameworks of neutralization techniques and meaning barriers. Findings show that although denial of anthropogenic climate change remains, discursive efforts concentrate on person-stigmatizing depictions of climate change actors, delegitimized as "elites" in populist vocabularies, reflecting a consistent alignment between everyday discourses and those of the United States and European official far-right. We discuss the functions this pattern may have for the growth of climate change minority positions.

RevDate: 2024-06-12

Li X, Black TA, Zha T, et al (2024)

Long-term trend and interannual variation in evapotranspiration of a young temperate Douglas-fir stand over 2002-2022 reveals the impacts of climate change.

Plant, cell & environment [Epub ahead of print].

The shortage of decades-long continuous measurements of ecosystem processes limits our understanding of how changing climate impacts forest ecosystems. We used continuous eddy-covariance and hydrometeorological data over 2002-2022 from a young Douglas-fir stand on Vancouver Island, Canada to assess the long-term trend and interannual variability in evapotranspiration (ET) and transpiration (T). Collectively, annual T displayed a decreasing trend over the 21 years with a rate of 1% yr[-1], which is attributed to the stomatal downregulation induced by rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Similarly, annual ET also showed a decreasing trend since evaporation stayed relatively constant. Variability in detrended annual ET was mostly controlled by the average soil water storage during the growing season (May-October). Though the duration and intensity of the drought did not increase, the drought-induced decreases in T and ET showed an increasing trend. This pattern may reflect the changes in forest structure, related to the decline in the deciduous understory cover during the stand development. These results suggest that the water-saving effect of stomatal regulation and water-related factors mostly determined the trend and variability in ET, respectively. This may also imply an increase in the limitation of water availability on ET in young forests, associated with the structural and compositional changes related to forest growth.

RevDate: 2024-06-11
CmpDate: 2024-06-11

Ccami-Bernal F, Barriga-Chambi F, Quispe-Vicuña C, et al (2024)

Health science students' preparedness for climate change: a scoping review on knowledge, attitudes, and practices.

BMC medical education, 24(1):648.

INTRODUCTION: Climate change (CC) is a global public health issue, and the role of health professionals in addressing its impact is crucial. However, to what extent health professionals are prepared to deal with CC-related health problems is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of health students about the CC.

METHODS: We conducted a scoping review through systematic searches in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Proquest, and EBSCO. We included original scientific research with no language or time restrictions. Two authors independently reviewed and decided on the eligibility of the studies, then performed data extraction.

RESULTS: 21 studies were included, with a total of 9205 undergraduate nursing, medical, pharmacy, and public health students mainly. Most health science students (> 75%) recognized human activities as the main cause of CC. However, they perceived a lack of knowledge on how to address CC. Moreover, we found inadequate coverage or limited development of CC in related curricula that may contribute to incomplete learning or low confidence in the theoretical and practical concepts of students.

CONCLUSION: The findings of our scoping review suggest that while health sciences students possess a general understanding of CC, there is a significant gap in their knowledge regarding its specific health impacts. To address this gap, there is a need for targeted education and training for future health care professionals that emphasizes the health effects of CC.

RevDate: 2024-06-11

Bogdziewicz M, Kelly D, Ascoli D, et al (2024)

Evolutionary ecology of masting: mechanisms, models, and climate change.

Trends in ecology & evolution pii:S0169-5347(24)00117-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.

RevDate: 2024-06-11

Weber RW (2024)

Current and Future Effects of Climate Change on Airborne Allergens.

Current allergy and asthma reports [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Delineation of the impact of elevated carbon dioxide and concomitant global warming on airborne allergens is performed.

RECENT FINDINGS: European tree pollen trends in general showed earlier start and end dates and increased total pollen release, with some differences both in locale and among species. Earlier flowering was also seen with grasses and weeds. In the case of some boreal trees, flowering was delayed due to a pre-seasonal requirement for necessary accumulated chilling temperature to achieve bud-set. Anthropogenic climate change induced rise in temperature and CO2 levels has resulted in demonstrable increases in aeroallergens. This has been most dramatic in tree pollen annual load, but also seen with grasses and weeds. Collected data is greatest for the Northern Hemisphere, especially the European continent, with supporting data from North America and Australia.

RevDate: 2024-06-11

Du J, Bird A, Boniface G, et al (2024)

The Perceived Role of Occupational Therapists in Climate Change.

Canadian journal of occupational therapy. Revue canadienne d'ergotherapie [Epub ahead of print].

Introduction. In 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) predicted that climate change would cause thousands of additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress alone between the years of 2030 and 2050. With such health consequences and environmental changes, climate change is impacting human occupations globally. However, there is a gap in the literature regarding the occupational therapists' role in climate change, particularly in the Canadian context. Objectives. Our research aimed to explore what is the perceived role of occupational therapists in climate change and climate action from the perspective of Canadian occupational therapists and international experts. Methods. This qualitative study used interpretive description methodology. We recruited 12 occupational therapists, including 4 research experts in the field. We conducted semi-structured interviews with each participant. Data were analyzed thematically. Results. This study uncovered three themes that focused on the complex interconnections between climate challenges and climate actions that occupational therapists are wrestling with personally, clinically, and professionally. Specifically, this study emphasized the importance of supporting individual occupational therapists with their personal challenges, integrating climate actions into clinical practices, and incorporating climate change and climate justice into occupational therapy curricula and professional advocacy. Conclusions. The environment, including the planet's ecosystem, is a fundamental component in many models of occupational therapy practice. This research provides a rich understanding in the themes of occupational therapists' perceptions of climate change and climate actions, particularly within a Canadian context.

RevDate: 2024-06-10

Graham F (2024)

Daily briefing: How to figure out which climate-change policies really work.

RevDate: 2024-06-10
CmpDate: 2024-06-10

Situma S, Nyakarahuka L, Omondi E, et al (2024)

Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

BMJ global health, 9(6): pii:bmjgh-2023-014737.

BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterising recent RVF disease events in East Africa.

METHODS: Data on 100 disease events (2008-2022) from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modelled against possible geoecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980 and 2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern.

RESULTS: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and three livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR, 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geoecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1°C increase in temperature and a 1-unit increase in NDVI, one months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1, 1.2) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.01, 3.71), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed a significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12-0.3°C/decade, p<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (p<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively.

CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics.

RevDate: 2024-06-10

Wang Z, Shi Y, Tang Q, et al (2024)

Capturing woody aboveground biomass historical change and potential under climate change using Landsat time-series for afforestation in dryland of China.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)04034-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Capturing long-term dynamics and the potential under climate change of woody aboveground biomass (AGB) is imperative for calculating and raising carbon sequestration of afforestation in dryland. It is always been a great challenge to accurately capture AGB dynamics of sparse woody vegetation mixed with grassland using only Landsat time-series, resulting in changing trajectory of woody AGB estimates cannot accurately reflect woody vegetation growth regularity in dryland. In this study, surface reflectance (SR) sensitive to woody AGB was firstly selected and interannual time-series of composited SR was smoothed using S-G filter for each pixel, and then optimal machine learning algorithm was selected to estimate woody AGB time-series. Pixels that have reached AGB potential were detected based on the AGB changing trajectory, and the potential was spatial-temporal extended using random forest model combining environmental variables under current climate condition and CMIP6 climate models. Results show that: 1) minimum value composite based on NIRv during Jul.-Sep. is more capable of explaining woody AGB variation in dryland (R = 0.87, p < 0.01), and Random Forest (RF) model has the best performance in estimating woody AGB (R[2] = 0.75, RMSE = 4.74 t·ha[-1]) among sis commonly used machine learning models. 2) Annual woody AGB estimates can be perfectly fitted with a logistic growth curve (R[2] = 0.97, p < 0.001) indicating explicit growth regularity of woody vegetation, which provides physiological foundation for determining woody AGB potential. 3) Woody AGB potential can be accurately simulated by RF combining environmental variables (R[2] = 0.95, RMSE = 2.89 t·ha[-1]), and current woody AGB still has a potential of small increase, whereas the overall losses of woody AGB potential were observed in 2030, 2040 and 2050 under CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios.

RevDate: 2024-06-11

Wang Y, Zhao Y, Miao G, et al (2024)

Predicting the potential distribution of Dendrolimus punctatus and its host Pinus massoniana in China under climate change conditions.

Frontiers in plant science, 15:1362020.

INTRODUCTION: Dendrolimus punctatus, a major pest endemic to the native Pinus massoniana forests in China, displays major outbreak characteristics and causes severe destructiveness. In the context of global climate change, this study aims to investigate the effects of climatic variations on the distribution of D. punctatus and its host, P. massoniana.

METHODS: We predict their potential suitable distribution areas in the future, thereby offering a theoretical basis for monitoring and controlling D. punctatus, as well as conserving P. massoniana forest resources. By utilizing existing distribution data on D. punctatus and P. massoniana, coupled with relevant climatic variables, this study employs an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model for predictions. With feature combinations set as linear and product (LP) and the regularization multiplier at 0.1, the model strikes an optimal balance between complexity and accuracy.

RESULTS: The results indicate that the primary climatic factors influencing the distribution of D. punctatus and P. massoniana include the minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. Under the influence of climate change, the distribution areas of P. massoniana and its pests exhibit a high degree of similarity, primarily concentrated in the region south of the Qinling-Huaihe line in China. In various climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for these two species may expand to varying degrees, exhibiting a tendency to shift toward higher latitude regions. Particularly under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), D. punctatus is projected to expand northwards at the fastest rate.

DISCUSSION: By 2050, its migration direction is expected to closely align with that of P. massoniana, indicating that the pine forests will continue to be affected by the pest. These findings provide crucial empirical references for region-specific prevention of D. punctatus infestations and for the rational utilization and management of P. massoniana resources.

RevDate: 2024-06-11

Atwa W, Almazroi AA, N Ayub (2024)

Reliable renewable energy forecasting for climate change mitigation.

PeerJ. Computer science, 10:e2067.

Accurate prediction of electricity generation from diverse renewable energy sources (RES) plays a pivotal role in optimizing power schedules within RES, contributing to the collective effort to combat climate change. While prior research often focused on individual energy sources in isolation, neglecting intricate interactions among multiple sources, this limitation frequently leads to inaccurate estimations of total power generation. In this study, we introduce a hybrid architecture designed to address these challenges, incorporating advanced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The hybrid model seamlessly integrates a gated recurrent unit (GRU) and a ResNext model, and it is tuned with the modified jaya algorithm (MJA) to capture localized correlations among different energy sources. Leveraging its nonlinear time-series properties, the model integrates meteorological conditions and specific energy source data. Additionally, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to extract linear time-series data characteristics for each energy source. Application of the proposed AI-infused approach to a renewable energy system demonstrates its effectiveness and feasibility in the context of climate change mitigation. Results reveal the superior accuracy of the hybrid framework compared to more complex models such as decision trees and ResNet. Specifically, our proposed method achieved remarkable performance, boasting the lowest error rates with a normalized RMSE of 6.51 and a normalized MAPE of 4.34 for solar photovoltaic (PV), highlighting its exceptional precision in terms of mean absolute errors. A detailed sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the influence of every element in the hybrid framework, emphasizing the importance of energy correlation patterns. Comparative assessments underscore the increased accuracy and stability of the suggested AI-infused framework when compared to other methods.

RevDate: 2024-06-11

de Schrijver E, Sivaraj S, Raible CC, et al (2023)

Nationwide projections of heat- and cold-related mortality impacts under various climate change and population development scenarios in Switzerland.

Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site], 18(9):094010.

Climate change and progressive population development (i.e., ageing and changes in population size) are altering the temporal patterns of temperature-related mortality in Switzerland. However, limited evidence exists on how current trends in heat- and cold-related mortality would evolve in future decades under composite scenarios of global warming and population development. Moreover, the contribution of these drivers to future mortality impacts is not well-understood. Therefore, we aimed to project heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland under various combinations of emission and population development scenarios and to disentangle the contribution of each of these two drivers using high-resolution mortality and temperature data. We combined age-specific (<75 and ⩾75 years) temperature-mortality associations in each district in Switzerland (1990-2010), estimated through a two-stage time series analysis, with 2 km downscaled CMIP5 temperature data and population and mortality rate projections under two scenarios: RCP4.5/SSP2 and RCP8.5/SSP5. We derived heat and cold-related mortality for different warming targets (1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C) using different emission and population development scenarios and compared this to the baseline period (1990-2010). Heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 312 (116; 510) in the 1990-2010 period to 1274 (537; 2284) annual deaths under 2.0 °C of warming (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 1871 (791; 3284) under 3.0 °C of warming (RCP8.5/SSP5). Cold-related mortality will substantially increase from 4069 (1898; 6016) to 6558 (3223; 9589) annual deaths under 2.0 °C (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 5997 (2951; 8759) under 3.0 °C (RCP8.5/SSP5). Moreover, while the increase in cold-related mortality is solely driven by population development, for heat, both components (i.e., changes in climate and population) have a similar contribution of around 50% to the projected heat-related mortality trends. In conclusion, our findings suggest that both heat- and cold-related mortality will substantially increase under all scenarios of climate change and population development in Switzerland. Population development will lead to an increase in cold-related mortality despite the decrease in cold temperature under warmer scenarios. Whereas the combination of the progressive warming of the climate and population development will substantially increase and exacerbate the total temperature-related mortality burden in Switzerland.

RevDate: 2024-06-10

Ladányi M, Divéky-Ertsey A, L Csambalik (2024)

Editorial: Adaptation of traditional crop cultivars to climate change in terms of nutritional aspects.

Frontiers in nutrition, 11:1427068.

RevDate: 2024-06-09

Golchin A, M Misaghi (2024)

Investigating the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on SOC storage and cumulative CO2 emissions in forest soils across altitudinal gradients using the century model.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)03905-6 [Epub ahead of print].

This study investigated the impact of climate change, grazing, manure application, and liming on soil organic carbon (SOC) stock and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in forest soils across different altitudes. Despite similar soil texture, acidity, and salinity across elevations, SOC stock significantly increased with altitude due to cooler temperatures and higher precipitation. The highest SOC stock (97.46 t ha[-1]) was observed at 2000-2500 m, compared to the lowest (44.23 t ha[-1]) at 500-1000 m. The Century C Model accurately predicted SOC stock, with correlation and determination coefficients exceeding 0.98. A climate change scenario projecting decreased precipitation (2.15 mm per decade) and increased temperature (0.4 °C) revealed potential SOC stock losses ranging from 28.36 to 36.35 %, particularly at higher altitudes. Grazing further decreased SOC stock, with a more pronounced effect at higher elevations. However, manure application (40 t ha[-1] every four years) and liming (7-10 t ha[-1] every three years) had positive effects on SOC stock, again amplified at higher altitudes and with an increase in lime application rate. In scenarios combining climate change with manure application and climate change with liming, manure application and liming mitigated some negative impacts of climate change, but could not fully offset them, resulting in 1.49-5.42 % and 0.39-4.07 % decreases respectively. Simulations of cumulative CO2 emissions mirrored the distribution of SOC stock, with higher emissions observed at higher altitudes and with management practices that increased SOC stock. This study emphasizes the critical role of conserving high-altitude forest soils and implementing optimal forest management strategies to combat climate change by minimizing SOC losses.

RevDate: 2024-06-09

Bojer AK, Woldetsadik M, BH Biru (2024)

Machine learning and CORDEX-Africa regional model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Gibe Watershed, Ethiopia.

Journal of environmental management, 363:121394 pii:S0301-4797(24)01380-X [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time, profoundly impacting global water resources and sustainability. This study aimed to predict the long-term effects of climate change on the Gilgel Gibe watershed by integrating machine learning (ML) methods and climate model scenarios. Utilizing an ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa project, we forecast future climatic conditions. Although global and regional climate simulations offer valuable insights, their limitations necessitate alternative approaches, such as ML, for improved accuracy. Employing an ensemble ML model with Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and CatBoost (CB) algorithms, we assessed various bias-correction methods using historical data from 1993 to 2009. Our results highlight the effectiveness of distribution mapping (DM) in capturing temperature variability and precipitation patterns, using the power transpiration (PT) method to represent precipitation variability. Projections indicate a decline in future precipitation under the RCP 8.5 (-32.2%) and SSP 4.5 (-88.8%) for 2024-2049, with further decreases expected for 2050-2099. Conversely, temperatures will rise under RCP 4.5 (TMAX 0.67 °C) and RCP 8.5 (TMAX 0.25 °C and TMIN 1.11 °C) in the near term, exacerbated by higher emissions under SSP 4.5 and 8.5. By leveraging an ensemble mean of four observed RCMs in an ML framework, our study successfully reproduced future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and (CMIP6) climatic datasets, with the CB model demonstrating superior performance in predicting future precipitation and temperature trends. These findings offer valuable insights for shaping future climate scenarios and informing policy decisions for the Gilgel Gibe Watershed, thereby enhancing water resource management in the basin and its environs.

RevDate: 2024-06-09

Xu B, X Wu (2024)

A comprehensive analysis to optimizing national-scale protected area systems under climate change.

Journal of environmental management, 363:121408 pii:S0301-4797(24)01394-X [Epub ahead of print].

With the intensification of climate change, incorporating climate information into protected areas planning has become crucial in reducing biodiversity loss. However, the current natural reserve system in China does not take climate information into account. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of existing protected areas through climate refuge and connectivity rankings, and Zonation software was used to identify the ecological priority zone in China by combining climate indicators and human footprint. The results show that the current natural protected areas in China have certain limitations in dealing with climate change, and some protected areas may struggle to maintain their value in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Moreover, China still has lots of important areas that can maintain biodiversity under climate change, but most of them are not covered by protected areas. The results provide support for the planning of China's nature protected area system in response to climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-09

Krohn LM, Klimpel F, Béziat P, et al (2024)

Impacts of COVID-19 and climate change on wastewater-derived substances in urban drinking water: Evidence from gadolinium-based contrast agents in tap water from Berlin, Germany.

Water research, 259:121847 pii:S0043-1354(24)00748-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Anthropogenic gadolinium from MRI contrast agents has been detected in surface waters worldwide. It is released with the treated effluents of wastewater treatment plants, similar to other wastewater-derived substances (WWDS) such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products. We determined concentrations of the rare earth elements in tap water from Berlin, Germany, using an automated preconcentration procedure that is both time- and cost-efficient. Anthropogenic gadolinium concentrations in Berlin's tap water increased on average 30-fold between 2009 and 2021. However, the tap water composition responded quickly to the reduced number of MRI scans during the COVID-19 pandemic, and some districts show a decrease from 2016 to 2021. Since climate change causes groundwater levels to decline in many regions, this needs to be mitigated by artificial groundwater recharge with surface water. This will inevitably lead to an increase in WWDS in potable water, which can be cost-efficiently monitored using anthropogenic gadolinium as tracer.

RevDate: 2024-06-08

Abdullah MA, Chuah LF, Abdullah SB, et al (2024)

From Port to Planet: Assessing NO2 Pollution and Climate Change Effects in Maritime Zones.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(24)01233-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The growing effects of climate change on Malaysia's coastal ecology heighten worries about air pollution, specifically caused by urbanization and industrial activity in the maritime sector. Trucks and vessels are particularly noteworthy for their substantial contribution to gas emissions, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which is the primary gas released in port areas. The application of advanced analysis techniques was spurred by the air pollution resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels such as fuel oil, natural gas, and gasoline in vessels. The study utilized satellite photos captured by the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the Sentinel-5P satellite to evaluate the levels of NO2 gas pollution in Malaysia's port areas and exclusive economic zone. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, unrestricted gas emissions led to persistently high levels of NO2 in the analyzed areas. Nevertheless, the temporary cessation of marine industry operations caused by the pandemic, along with the halting of vessels to prevent the spread of COVID-19, resulted in a noticeable decrease in NO2 gas pollution. In light of these favourable advancements, it is imperative to emphasize the need for continuous investigation and collaborative endeavours to further alleviate air contamination in Malaysian port regions, while simultaneously acknowledging the wider consequences of climate change on the coastal ecology. The study underscores the interdependence of air pollution, maritime activities, and climate change. It emphasizes the need for comprehensive strategies that tackle both immediate environmental issues and the long-term sustainability and resilience of coastal ecosystems in the context of global climate challenges.

RevDate: 2024-06-08

Luo W, Sun C, Yang S, et al (2024)

Contrasting range changes and drivers of four forest foundation species under future climate change in China.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)03931-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Forest foundation species, vital for shaping community structure and dynamics through non-trophic level interactions, are key to forest succession and sustainability. Despite their ecological importance, the habitat ranges of these species in China and their responses to future climate change remain unclear. Our study employed the optimal MaxEnt model to assess the range shifts and their essential drivers of four typical forest foundation species from three climatic zones in China under climate scenarios, including Acer tegmentosum, Acer pseudo-sieboldianum (temperate zone), Quercus glandulifera (subtropical zone), and Ficus hispida (tropical zone). The optimal MaxEnt model exhibited high evaluation indices (AUC values > 0.90) for the four foundation species, indicating excellent predictive performance. Currently, we observed that A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum are predominantly inhabited temperate forest areas in northeastern China, Q. glandulifera is primarily concentrated in subtropical forests in southeastern China, and F. hispida is mainly distributed across the tropical forests in southern China. Climate factors, particularly temperature, emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the potential range of forest foundation species. Moreover, precipitation strongly influenced the potential range of A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum, while elevation exhibited a greater impact on the range of Q. glandulifera and F. hispida. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas for A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum tend to expand southward, F. hispida tends to expand northward, while Q. glandulifera exhibited a tendency to contract towards the center. This study advances our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest foundation species in China under climate change, providing critical insights for conservation efforts and sustainable forest management practices.

RevDate: 2024-06-08

Gong J, Wang K, Zeng J, et al (2024)

Climate change dominates the interannual variation of carbon export efficiency in each season in the Northern Gulf of Mexico during 1998-2011.

Marine environmental research, 199:106564 pii:S0141-1136(24)00225-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Carbon export efficiency is a key indicator of the capacity of biological pump, but the controlling mechanism of the efficiency remains unclear. Our findings revealed that interannual variations in seasonal carbon export efficiency are determined by direct factors including riverine nutrient fluxes, stratification, residence time. These direct factors are finally attributed to two indirect factors (human activities and climate change). We quantified the absolute contributions of direct and indirect factors to carbon export efficiency. The results showed that the carbon export efficiency in the northern Gulf of Mexico in spring (summer; autumn; winter) was driven by human activities, which accounted for an absolute contribution of 16.02% (7.20%; 4.00%; 8.49%, respectively) through riverine nutrient fluxes, and by climate change, which accounted for an absolute contribution of 33.51% (21.43%; 25.73%; 15.80%, respectively) through stratification and water residence time. Moreover, carbon export efficiency could be predicted by MEI of 8 months earlier.

RevDate: 2024-06-08

Tran TN, Tapas MR, Do SK, et al (2024)

Investigating the impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes in the Tar-Pamlico River basin, North Carolina.

Journal of environmental management, 363:121375 pii:S0301-4797(24)01361-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Evaluating the forthcoming impacts of climate change is important for formulating efficient and flexible approaches to water resource management. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are primary tools that enable scientists to study both past and potential future climate changes, as well as their impacts on policies and actions. In this work, we quantify the future projected impacts of hydroclimatic extremes on the coastal, risk-prone Tar-Pamlico River basin in North Carolina using GCMs from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These models incorporate projected future societal development scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) as defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Specifically, we have utilized historical residential expansion data, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Interquartile Range (IQR) method for analyzing extremes from 2024 to 2100. Our findings include: (1) a trend toward wetter conditions is identified with an increase in flood events toward 2100; (2) projected increases in the severity of flood peaks are found, quantified by a rise of 21% compared to the 2000-2020 period; (3) downstream regions are forecast to experience severe droughts up to 2044; and (4) low-lying and coastal regions are found as particularly susceptible to higher flood peaks and more frequent drought events between 2045 and 2100. This work provides valuable insights into the anticipated shifts in natural disaster patterns and supports decision-makers and authorities in promoting adaptive strategies and sustainable policies to address challenges posed by future climate changes in the Tar-Pamlico region and throughout the state of North Carolina, United States.

RevDate: 2024-06-08

Krawczyk R, Osyczka P, Siebielec G, et al (2024)

Fires in the face of climate change: Indicators of fire disturbance in heath areas - Inference from military training lands.

Journal of environmental management, 363:121373 pii:S0301-4797(24)01359-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming significantly affects the frequency and intensity of wildfires in many fire-prone areas of the world and fire disturbance regimes are changing rapidly. Alongside this, controlled burning is often considered or implemented as an alternative method for nature protection. Here, we studied the post-fire secondary succession in dry heath habitat located in military training grounds to recognise the impact of fire on the effectiveness and rate of ecosystem recovery. We focus particularly on identifying indicator species for a given successional phase of Central European dry heath habitats and assessing their value for dating the last fire disturbance. The research involved 60 vegetation patches (plots of 25 m[2]), which were assigned to four post-fire age classes, namely: 1-5 years (Class A), 6-10 years (Class B), 11-15 years (Class C), and >15 years (Class D). In each study plot, species diversity and coverage of lichens, bryophytes and vascular plants were examined in addition to the physicochemical properties of the soil substrate. Cryptogams and vascular plants clearly differ in terms of the secondary succession pattern; specific sets of cryptogams correspond well to particular post-fire classes and are therefore good determinants of the post-fire succession stage. Spontaneous succession of plant vegetation eventually leads to complete recovery of the heath in a relatively short time. Nevertheless, great vegetation dynamics in the first years after a fire disturbance may result in seemingly different directions of succession. Post-fire classes did not differ noticeably in terms of soil properties, it follows that the effects of fire on soil conditions are negligible; though, a significant upward trend was observed for exchangeable form of K throughout the succession process. Our results indicate that sporadic fires reduce the undesirable overgrowth of heathlands or psamophilous grasslands and generally have a little negative side-effect on the ecosystem. The revealed succession patterns and defined sets of species characteristic for subsequent post-fire age classes are applicable to dating fire disturbances, regardless of whether the fire was planned or spontaneous.

RevDate: 2024-06-08

Félix-Burruel RE, Larios E, González EJ, et al (2024)

Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change.

Annals of botany pii:7690007 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change is a global phenomenon species are experiencing, which in arid regions will translate into more frequent and intense drought. The Sonoran Desert is becoming hotter and drier, and many organisms are rapidly changing in abundance and distribution. These population attributes directly depend on the dynamics of the population, which in turn depends on the vital rates of its individuals; yet few studies have documented the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of keystone species such as the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Although saguaros have traits that enable them to withstand present environmental conditions, climate change could make them vulnerable if forced beyond their tolerance limits.

METHODS: We evaluated the effect of climate change on 13 saguaro populations spanning most of the species' distribution range. Using field data from 2014 to 2016, we built an integral projection model (IPM) describing the environmentally-explicit dynamics of the populations. We used this IPM, along with projections of two climate change and one no-change scenarios, to predict population sizes (N) and growth rates (λ) from 2017 to 2099 and compared these scenarios to demonstrate the effect of climate change on saguaro's future.

KEY RESULTS: We found that all populations will decline, mainly due to future increases in drought, mostly hindering recruitment. However, the decline will be differential across populations, since those located near the coast will be affected by harsher drought events than those located further inland.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that climate change and its associated increase in drought pose a significant threat to the saguaro cactus populations in the Sonoran Desert. Our findings indicate that the recruitment of saguaros, vital for establishing new individuals, is particularly vulnerable to intensifying drought conditions. Importantly, regional climate trends will have different impacts on saguaro populations across their distribution range.

RevDate: 2024-06-08

Badger MS (2024)

The Intersection of Geriatrics, Climate Change, and Wilderness Medicine: Education is Critical.

Wilderness & environmental medicine [Epub ahead of print].

According to the US Census, for the first time in history, older adults are projected to exceed the number of children by 2035. These seniors are headed to the outdoors in increasing numbers and face unique risks. They benefit from careful pre-event evaluation planning to maintain their health in wilderness environments. Climate change is affecting all of us, but seniors are considered an especially vulnerable group. This vulnerability needs to be addressed not only when older adults head into the wilderness but also when the wilderness "comes to them" in areas where wilderness medicine and disaster medicine overlap. Education of both providers and patients is vital. This article aims to discuss the special needs of older adults/seniors /elders (defined as those over 65 unless otherwise indicated) in the wilderness as well as the vulnerability of older adults to climate change, both during planned wilderness activities and when the wilderness "comes to them" because of climate change, and to identify opportunities for education and adaptation of patients and education of physicians and wilderness and disaster responders to care for these older patients. The PubMed and Google Scholar Database search engines were utilized to review relevant English language publications between 2000 and 2023 that addressed individuals over 65 and explored the overlap of geriatrics (aged over 65), wilderness and disaster medicine, and climate change and create a perspective summary. Because of increased numbers of older adults heading into the wilderness for outdoor activities or having wilderness thrust upon them due to climate change, cross training of all specialties including the fields of emergency, geriatrics, wilderness medicine, and disaster medicine is needed in collaboration with other organizations and search and rescue. Response agencies must recognize that training in wilderness medicine provides a background for practitioners working in dangerous and remote settings and ought to seek out individuals with such skills when placing responders in the field. Climate change is making these intersections and the need for this education more urgent with time.

RevDate: 2024-06-07
CmpDate: 2024-06-07

Dinh NTT, Tran J, M Hensher (2024)

Measuring and valuing the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation: a scoping review.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 8(6):e402-e409.

Despite growing interest in the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions, there is little recent evidence on the appropriateness of the measurement techniques being used to estimate them. We did a scoping review to identify the different approaches that have been used to measure and value health co-benefits in the climate change mitigation literature. We searched three databases (EBSCOhost, Web of Science, and MEDLINE Ovid) to identify relevant papers published between 2010 and 2023, and identified 267 studies that met our inclusion criteria to be included in the review. We found that health co-benefit studies are more typically published in the environmental science literature than in health journals. Despite calls going back many years for greater standardisation in methods, we found a highly diverse set of health measures and valuation approaches still in use. The majority of studies (232 [87%]) measured only near-term health co-benefits from reduced air pollution, and only 13 (5%) studies incorporated the longer term health benefits from mitigating the future health harms of climate change. Just over half the studies included monetary valuation of health co-benefits, using a variety of valuation approaches. Public and planetary health researchers, epidemiologists, and health economists should seek to engage more actively with those undertaking research in health co-benefits. This would allow consideration of how best to reconcile differing perspectives and techniques, how to achieve better standardisation of measurement and valuation, and how to extend the generally narrow focus of current health co-benefit studies to become more holistic and comprehensive.

RevDate: 2024-06-07
CmpDate: 2024-06-07

Garfin DR, G Wong-Parodi (2024)

Climate change anxiety, hurricane exposure, and climate change actions and attitudes: results from a representative, probability-based survey of US Gulf Coast residents.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 8(6):e378-e390.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to climate change-related threats (eg, hurricanes) has been associated with mental health symptoms, including post-traumatic stress symptoms. Yet it is unclear whether climate change anxiety, which is understudied in representative samples, is a specific mental health threat, action motivator, or both, particularly in populations exposed to climate-change related disasters. We sought to examine the associations between exposure to hurricanes, climate change anxiety, and climate change actions and attitudes in a representative sample of US Gulf Coast residents.

METHODS: This study used data from a 5-year, representative, prospectively assessed, probability-based, longitudinal cohort sample of residents in Texas and Florida (USA) exposed to exogenous catastrophic hurricanes rated category 3 or greater. Participants were adults aged 18 years and older and were initially recruited from the Ipsos KnowledgePanel in the 60 h before Hurricane Irma (Sept 8-11, 2017). Relationships between climate change anxiety, hurricane exposure, hurricane-related post-traumatic stress symptoms, general functional impairment, and climate change-related individual-level actions (eg, eating a plant-based diet and driving more fuel efficient cars) and collective-level actions (eg, petition signing and donating money) and climate change action attitudes were evaluated using structural equation modelling.

FINDINGS: The final survey was completed by 1479 individuals (787 [53·2%] women and 692 [46·8%] men). Two climate change anxiety subscales (cognitive-emotional impairment and perceived experience of climate change) were confirmed using confirmatory factor analysis. Mean values were low for both climate change anxiety subscales: cognitive-emotional impairment (mean 1·31 [SD 0·63], range 1-5) and perceived climate change experience (mean 1·67 [SD 0·89], range 1-5); these subscales differentially predicted outcomes. The cognitive-emotional impairment subscale did not significantly correlate with actions or attitudes; its relationship with general functional impairment was attenuated by co-occurring hurricane-related post-traumatic stress symptoms, which were highly correlated with general functional impairment in all three models (all p<0·0001). The perceived climate change experience subscale correlated with climate change attitudes (b=0·57, 95% CI 0·47-0·66; p<0·0001), individual-level actions (b=0·34, 0·21-0·47; p<0·0001), and collective-level actions (b=0·22, 0·10-0·33; p=0·0002), but was not significantly associated with general functional impairment in any of the final models. Hurricane exposure correlated with climate change-related individual-level (b=0·26, 0·10-0·42; p=0·0011) and collective-level (b=0·41, 0·26-0·56; p<0·0001) actions.

INTERPRETATION: Expanded treatment for post-traumatic stress symptoms after disasters could help address climate change-related psychological distress; experiences with climate change and natural hazards could be inflection points to motivate action.

FUNDING: National Science Foundation and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

RevDate: 2024-06-07
CmpDate: 2024-06-07

Lau SSS, Fong JWL, van Rijsbergen N, et al (2024)

Emotional responses and psychological health among young people amid climate change, Fukushima's radioactive water release, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the mediating roles of media exposure and nature connectedness: a cross-national analysis.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 8(6):e365-e377.

BACKGROUND: New global crises are emerging, while existing global crises remain unabated. Coping with climate change, the radioactive water released into the Pacific Ocean subsequent to the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East (hereafter referred to as the wars) as individual crises can negatively affect the psychological health of young people, but little is known about the compounded impact of multiple crises. We aimed to examine: (1) the emotional responses of young people towards each individual crisis, (2) how aggregate levels of emotional engagement in global crises might pose different potential trajectories in psychological health, and (3) the protective or exacerbating role of media exposure and nature connectedness as mediators on psychological health outcomes of young people.

METHODS: We conducted a cross-national online survey among young people (aged 18-29 years) from China, Portugal, South Africa, the USA, and the UK. We adopted stratified purposive sampling and distributed the survey using online platforms (www.wenjuan.com and www.prolific.com). Individuals were eligible for inclusion in our analysis if they were literate in Chinese or English and had no mental disorders diagnosed within the past 12 months. Participants were asked questions on their demographic characteristics and time spent on social media, including proportion of time exposed to media pertaining to global crises of interest, and they completed surveys based on validated scales that measure depression, anxiety, stress, and wellbeing, as well as emotional responses to each global crisis and nature relatedness. We assessed the survey results using descriptive statistics, ANOVA tests, cluster analysis for individual emotional responses, and structural equation modelling for the aggregate measure of emotional engagement towards individual global crises.

FINDINGS: Between Oct 20 and Nov 3, 2023, 2579 individuals participated in the survey, of whom 400 participants from each country (200 male and 200 female participants) were included in our analysis (mean age 24·36 years [SD 2·86]). The mean emotional engagement varied between the global crises of interest (on a scale from 0 to 68, where 0 indicates no emotional response and 68 indicates strong emotional responses across 17 different emotions; wars: 32·42 [SD 14·57]; climate change: 28·79 [14·17]; radioactive water: 21·26 [16·08]), and emotional engagement also varied by country; for instance, for respondents from China, mean emotional engagement in radioactive water was relatively high (39·15 [10·72]) compared with the other countries, and for respondents from the USA, engagement with the wars was relatively low (29·45 [15·78]). We found significant variations in the level of emotional engagement between different crises, with distinct emotional profiles observed among individual countries. To assess the role of media exposure and nature connectedness on psychological outcomes, using structural equation modelling, we constructed a multi-country model comprising Portugal, South Africa, the USA, and the UK, and a standalone model for China. These models elucidated associations between emotional engagement and psychological distress and wellbeing, explaining substantial portions of the variance in both. Notably, while greater emotional engagement in the ecological crises (ie, climate change and radioactive water) generally predicted worse psychological health outcomes, we found the direction of effect for war crises to have positive outcomes for mental health in the standalone China model. Additionally, we found that media exposure mediated the negative effect of wars on psychological distress in the multi-country model, and positive psychological wellbeing in the standalone China model. Moreover, nature connectedness emerged as a potent mediator, effectively mitigating the adverse mental health effects of emotional engagement with some crises, such as radioactive water and climate change.

INTERPRETATION: Our findings offer valuable insights into the nuanced dynamics of emotional engagement in global crises and its implications for mental health outcomes among young people across diverse global contexts. Further research is needed to understand the contribution of ongoing and new global crises towards a compounded negative future outlook on young people's mental health to identify effective communication and intervention strategies that can mitigate the effect of this global challenge.

FUNDING: Research Grants Council of Hong Kong, China.

RevDate: 2024-06-07
CmpDate: 2024-06-07

Guihenneuc J, Cambien G, Blanc-Petitjean P, et al (2024)

Knowledge, behaviours, practices, and expectations regarding climate change and environmental sustainability among health workers in France: a multicentre, cross-sectional study.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 8(6):e353-e364.

BACKGROUND: Faced with climate change, hospitals are confronted with a dual challenge. On one hand, they need to embark on a far-reaching ecological transformation to reduce their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts; on the other hand, they need to limit the effects of climate change on their activities. We aimed to evaluate the knowledge, behaviours, practices, and expectations of health workers in French hospitals regarding climate change and environmental sustainability.

METHODS: This multicentre, cross-sectional study was carried out in six French hospitals from June 1, 2021 to Dec 31, 2022. All health workers at the hospitals were eligible to participate and were recruited through internal publicity. We designed a structured questionnaire consisting of five parts: participant characteristics, knowledge and perceptions of climate change, pro-environmental behaviours, practices concerning environmental sustainability actions, and expectations. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to evaluate associations between the knowledge, behaviours, and practices of health workers and the characteristics of the health workers and hospitals.

FINDINGS: Of 57 034 health workers across the six hospitals, 4552 (8·0%) participated in the study. Of those for whom gender data were available, 3518 (78·2%) participants were women and 979 (21·8%) were men. Participants considered energy consumption (71·0%) and waste and discharges related to medical activities (55·6%) and non-medical activities (50·2%) to be the three activities with the greatest environmental impact. On a scale of 1 (not a priority) to 10 (high priority), the median rating attributed by the participants to the commitment of their hospitals to ecological transformation was 5·0 (IQR 3·0-6·0). 1079 (23·7%) of 4552 participants had already initiated at least one environmental sustainability action in their hospital. Barriers reported by participants to the implementation of environmental sustainability-related projects were the lack of dedicated time (40·4%), hierarchical support (32·5%), methodological support (28·9%), and access to training (23·7%). The presence of a sustainable development steering committee, especially one with more than 5 years of activity, was positively associated with health workers feeling better informed about the ecological transformation of their hospital (adjusted odds ratio 1·78 [95% CI 1·29-2·45]), having better knowledge of the environmental impacts of their hospital (1·83 [1·32-2·53]), and initiating a larger number of environmental sustainability actions (1·74 [1·33-2·29]).

INTERPRETATION: We showed that health workers in French hospitals seem to be committed to the ecological transformation of their workplaces, and identified some drivers and barriers to further support these essential transformations. There is an urgent need to bolster training for all health workers, enhance structural frameworks within hospitals, and encourage future interdisciplinary research on the vulnerability of health-care facilities to climate change.

FUNDING: The University Hospital of Poitiers.

RevDate: 2024-06-07
CmpDate: 2024-06-07

Sorcher R, Ochieng Arunda M, Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights and Climate Change Consultation Group (2024)

Key considerations for research into how climate change affects sexual and reproductive health and rights.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 8(6):e347-e348.

RevDate: 2024-06-07
CmpDate: 2024-06-07

Peden AE, Chisholm S, Meddings DR, et al (2024)

Drowning and disasters: climate change priorities.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 8(6):e345-e346.

RevDate: 2024-06-07

Vospernik S, Vigren C, Morin X, et al (2024)

Can mixing Quercus robur and Quercus petraea with Pinus sylvestris compensate for productivity losses due to climate change?.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)03489-2 [Epub ahead of print].

The climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with a representative concentration pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing of 4.5 W m[-2] and 8.5 W m[-2] by 2100, respectively, predict an increase in temperature of 1-4.5° Celsius for Europe and a simultaneous shift in precipitation patterns leading to increased drought frequency and severity. The negative consequences of such changes on tree growth on dry sites or at the dry end of a tree species distribution are well-known, but rarely quantified across large gradients. In this study, the growth of Quercus robur and Quercus petraea (Q. spp.) and Pinus sylvestris in pure and mixed stands was predicted for a historical scenario and the two climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the individual tree growth model PrognAus. Predictions were made along an ecological gradient ranging from current mean annual temperatures of 5.5-11.4 °C and with mean annual precipitation sums of 586-929 mm. Initial data for the simulation consisted of 23 triplets established in pure and mixed stands of Q. spp. and P. sylvestris. After doing the simulations until 2100, we fitted a linear mixed model using the predicted volume in the year 2100 as response variable to describe the general trends in the simulation results. Productivity decreased for both Q. spp. and P. sylvestris with increasing temperature, and more so, for the warmer sites of the gradient. P. sylvestris is the more productive tree species in the current climate scenario, but the competitive advantage shifts to Q. spp., which is capable to endure very high negative water potentials, for the more severe climate change scenario. The Q. spp.-P. sylvestris mixture presents an intermediate resilience to increased scenario severity. Enrichment of P. sylvestris stands by creating mixtures with Q. spp., but not the opposite, might be a right silvicultural adaptive strategy, especially at lower latitudes. Tree species mixing can only partly compensate productivity losses due to climate change. This may, however, be possible in combination with other silvicultural adaptation strategies, such as thinning and uneven-aged management.

RevDate: 2024-06-07

Mayekar HV, S Rajpurohit (2024)

No single rescue recipe: genome complexities modulate insect response to climate change.

Current opinion in insect science pii:S2214-5745(24)00062-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Declines in insect populations have gained formidable attention. Given their crucial role in the ecosystem, causes of declining insect populations must be investigated. However, the insect clade has been associated with low extinction and high diversification rates. It is unlikely that insects underwent mass extinctions in the past. However, the current climate change could make insect populations vulnerable to extinction. We propose genome size (GS) and transposable elements (TE) to be rough estimates to assess extinction risk. Specifically larger GS and/ or proliferating TE numbers are associated with adaptation in rapid climate change scenarios. We speculate unstable, stressful environmental conditions strongly associate with GS and TE expansion which further correlate with adaptations. Alternately, stressful conditions trigger TE bursts which are not purged in smaller populations. GE and TE could be indicators of small effective populations in the wild likely experiencing bottlenecks and hence demand assessment for extinction risk.

RevDate: 2024-06-07

Zangerl KE, Hoernke K, Andreas M, et al (2024)

Child health prioritisation in national adaptation policies on climate change: a policy document analysis across 160 countries.

The Lancet. Child & adolescent health pii:S2352-4642(24)00084-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Integration of child-specific adaptation measures into health policies is imperative given children's heightened susceptibility to the health impacts of climate change. Using a document analysis method, we examined 160 national adaptation policies for inclusion of child-relevant measures and identified 19 child health-related adaptation domains. 44 (28%) of 160 countries' policies that were analysed failed to include any domains, 49 (31%) included at least one child-related domain, 62 (39%) included between two and six domains, and five (3%) included at least seven domains. Predominant domains among child-specific adaptation measures included education and awareness raising, followed by community engagement and nutrition. No country addressed children's direct needs in the domain of mental health. National adaptation policies tend towards overly simple conceptualisations of children across four major lenses: age, social role, gender, and agency. Limited inclusion of child-specific measures in national adaptation policies suggests insufficient recognition of and action on children's susceptibility to climate change effects.

RevDate: 2024-06-07
CmpDate: 2024-06-07

Meng F, Felton AJ, Mao J, et al (2024)

Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change.

Science advances, 10(23):eadn2487.

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-07
CmpDate: 2024-06-07

Martyn-Nemeth P, LL Hayman (2024)

Climate Change and Cardiovascular Health.

The Journal of cardiovascular nursing, 39(4):305-306.

RevDate: 2024-06-07

Gini G, Piggott-McKellar A, Wiegel H, et al (2024)

Navigating tensions in climate change-related planned relocation.

Ambio [Epub ahead of print].

The planned relocation of communities away from areas of climate-related risk has emerged as a critical strategy to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Empirical examples from around the world show, however, that such relocations often lead to poor outcomes for affected communities. To address this challenge, and contribute to developing guidelines for just and sustainable relocation processes, this paper calls attention to three fundamental tensions in planned relocation processes: (1) conceptualizations of risk and habitability; (2) community consultation and ownership; and (3) siloed policy frameworks and funding mechanisms. Drawing on the collective experience of 29 researchers, policymakers and practitioners from around the world working on planned relocations in the context of a changing climate, we provide strategies for collectively and collaboratively acknowledging and navigating these tensions among actors at all levels, to foster more equitable and sustainable relocation processes and outcomes.

RevDate: 2024-06-07

Pearson H (2024)

What's the best way to tackle climate change? An 'evidence bank' could help scientists find answers.

RevDate: 2024-06-06

Vidal C, C Latkin (2024)

Views of Psychiatrists and Psychiatry Trainees on Climate Change: Distress, Training Needs, and Envisioned Role.

Academic psychiatry : the journal of the American Association of Directors of Psychiatric Residency Training and the Association for Academic Psychiatry [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVE: Increasing evidence demonstrates that climate change has effects on mental health. Given the magnitude of climate change's health consequences, mitigation and adaptation will require massive societal changes and the involvement of individuals and professional organizations. The aim of this research was to assess the views of psychiatrists and psychiatrists-in-training about climate change and its effects on health, perceived barriers to discussing climate change in their clinical, teaching, research, and advocacy work, personal preparedness for climate action, and expected roles of their professional organizations.

METHODS: The authors administered an online anonymous survey to members of two mid-Atlantic professional psychiatric organizations. Measures included an adaptation of The International Climate and Health Survey and demographic and career characteristics. Descriptive statistics for categorical variables were conducted.

RESULTS: The majority of the 67 participants who completed the survey were White and senior in their career, and almost all were clinicians. Most were concerned about climate change and its mental health effects on patients and supported their organizations' engagement in activities related to this topic. Barriers to engagement in climate change action included lack of time and believing it would not make a difference.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate a desire of psychiatrists involved in teaching, research, and clinical work to address climate change and a need for training. These findings highlight the need for preparedness as newer generations face more disasters related to climate change, and experience psychological distress related to climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-06
CmpDate: 2024-06-06

MacDonald JS, Lutscher F, Y Bourgault (2024)

Climate change fluctuations can increase population abundance and range size.

Ecology letters, 27(6):e14453.

Climate change threatens many species by a poleward/upward movement of their thermal niche. While we know that faster movement has stronger impacts, little is known on how fluctuations of niche movement affect population outcomes. Environmental fluctuations often affect populations negatively, but theory and experiments have revealed some positive effects. We study how fluctuations around the average speed of the niche impact a species' persistence, abundance and realized niche width under climate change. We find that the outcome depends on how fluctuations manifest and what the relative time scale of population growth and climate fluctuations are. When populations are close to extinction with the average speed, fluctuations around this average accelerate population decline. However, populations not yet close to extinction can increase in abundance and/or realized niche width from such fluctuations. Long-lived species increase more when their niche size remains constant, short-lived species increase more when their niche size varies.

RevDate: 2024-06-06

Kolanowska M, Rewicz A, S Nowak (2024)

Can global warming be beneficial for Arctic-alpine orchid species? Outcomes from ecological niche modeling for Chamorchis alpina (L.) Rich. (Orchidaceae).

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)03763-X [Epub ahead of print].

The disjunct Arctic-alpine plants that persist on isolated mountain sites at the limits of their geographical range are particularly sensitive indicators of climate change effects. Here, we investigated a remarkably fragile plant, the smallest orchid in Europe, Chamorchis alpina. The ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach was employed not only to verify the shift in the range of the studied orchid but also to evaluate the future overlap between this plant population and its pollen vectors, Dasytes alpigradus, Formica lemani and Leptothorax acervorum. Our analyses showed that the bioclimatic preferences of the northern (Scandinavian) populations differed from those of the southern populations located in the Alps and Carpathians. Surprisingly, both C. alpina groups will expand their potential ranges under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario, and additional suitable niches will become available for the northern group under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. The Scandinavian populations will face significant habitat loss (36 %) in the SSP5-8.5 projection. The southern group will lose suitable niches under both the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (33 % and 58 %, respectively). For all pollinators of C. alpina, global warming will be favorable, and all three species will expand their potential ranges under all analyzed climate change scenarios. Our research suggests that a "middle of the road" scenario of climate change (SSP2-4.5), which assumes that socioeconomic factors follow historical trends, will not be harmful to the studied orchid or possibly other elements of Arctic-alpine flora, but all other scenarios that predict increases in CO2 emissions will result in a decreases in the coverage of suitable C. alpina niches, especially in the alpine region. At the same time, an overall expansion of alpine dwarf orchid pollen vectors is predicted, so even within a reduced geographical range, the orchid population will be able to reproduce sexually.

RevDate: 2024-06-06

Keleş Özgenç E, O Uzun (2024)

Impacts of land use/land cover and climate change on landscape sensitivity in Tunca River sub-basin: Use in spatial planning and sectoral decision processes.

Journal of environmental management, 363:121372 pii:S0301-4797(24)01358-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Managing landscape change is increasingly challenging due to rapid anthropogenic shifts. A delicate balance must be struck between the environment and change to ensure landscapes can withstand these impacts. This study conducted in the Tunca River sub-basin of Edirne province, aims to assess landscape sensitivity by examining the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on landscape function processes. For this purpose, a methodology was developed based on ecosystem services to determine landscape sensitivity. The results revealed a LULC transformation that could lead to a 60% reduction in forest areas and a 5% and 20% increase in urban and irrigated agricultural areas, respectively. Water and erosion emerged as the most affected landscape function processes. Future scenarios from 2050 to 2070 indicate noteworthy changes in landscape sensitivity, showing an increase in sensitivity in the upper regions of the basin. The study identified high sensitivity in forested areas, moderate sensitivity in agricultural zones, and low sensitivity in micro-basins near residential areas. Protection and improvement strategies are recommended for areas with high and moderate sensitivity, while use-oriented strategies are suggested for those with low sensitivity. This study also establishes a scientific foundation for guiding the protection and management of ecologically sensitive basin areas, offering insights into the effects of landscape change processes at the micro-basin level in connection with climate change models.

RevDate: 2024-06-06

Abeles SR, Kline A, P Lee (2024)

Climate change and resilience for antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention.

Current opinion in infectious diseases pii:00001432-990000000-00155 [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review covers recent research regarding the challenges posed by climate change within the areas of antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention, and ways to build resiliency in these fields.

RECENT FINDINGS: Infectious disease patterns are changing as microbes adapt to climate change and changing environmental factors. Capacity for testing and treating infectious diseases is challenged by newly emerging diseases, which exacerbate challenges to antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention.Antimicrobial resistance is accelerated due to environmental factors including air pollution, plastic pollution, and chemicals used in food systems, which are all impacted by climate change.Climate change places infection prevention practices at risk in many ways including from major weather events, increased risk of epidemics, and societal disruptions causing conditions that can overwhelm health systems. Researchers are building resilience by advancing rapid diagnostics and disease modeling, and identifying highly reliable versus low efficiency interventions.

SUMMARY: Climate change and associated major weather and socioeconomic events will place significant strain on healthcare facilities. Work being done to advance rapid diagnostics, build supply chain resilience, improve predictive disease modeling and surveillance, and identify high reliability versus low yield interventions will help build resiliency in antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention for escalating challenges due to climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-06

Ke C, Gong LX, Geng Y, et al (2024)

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change.

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

RevDate: 2024-06-06

Chen X, Tian F, Tao L, et al (2024)

The response rules to maintain social stability facing the climate change in ming dynasty.

Heliyon, 10(11):e31696.

Studying the mechanisms by which climate change interacted with human societies during the historical period can provide historical insights and cultural roots for climate policy building in the region. In this study, we constructed Stability-Robustness-Resilience Model (SSR model) and used the TOPSIS method (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and the entropy weight method to assess the change processes of robustness, resilience, and stability of Ming's society in response to climate threats. We have also compared three extreme droughts that occurred in different periods of social robustness-resilience combinations by using the SRR model. The results are as follows. (1) The stability of the Ming society was high in YongLe - HongZhi period (1402-1505 CE), when both social robustness and resilience were higher than the average level of Ming Dynasty (0.5611 for the former and 0.4215 for the latter), but there was a significant decline in social stability in TianShun period (1457-1464 CE). In ZhengDe - ChongZhen period (1506-1644 CE), the stability of Ming society gradually decreased, and it rebounded shortly in the LongQing-WanLi period (1506-1620 CE). (2) The high stability benefited from higher socio-economic levels, better government finance levels, larger national food reserves, safer social environments (high robustness), and higher levels of ruling class governance and risk response (high resilience); whereas insecure social environment induced by war, declining socio-economic levels and government finance levels were the main reasons for the decline in society's stability. (3)The ChengHua and WanLi droughts both happened at a time with high social robustness, so although their meteorological anomalies were severe, their impact on society was small. While the JiaJing drought happened at a time with low social robustness and resilience, so although the meteorological anomaly was relatively weak, it resulted in a more severe social consequence than the other two events.

RevDate: 2024-06-05
CmpDate: 2024-06-06

Stevens M, Israel A, Nusselder A, et al (2024)

Drawing a line from CO2 emissions to health-evaluation of medical students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and health following a novel serious game: a mixed-methods study.

BMC medical education, 24(1):626.

BACKGROUND: Education is urgently needed to equip medical students with knowledge, values and skills to promote planetary health. However, the current literature offers little insight into evidence-based approaches and best practices. In response to this pressing need, a novel serious game was introduced into the medical curriculum at Erasmus Medical Center in 2023. The aim of this study was to evaluate the knowledge and attitudes of medical students after they had played a serious game that addresses climate change and health.

METHODS: In accordance with a mixed-methods design, quantitative data were collected using pre- and post-intervention surveys. Differences were assessed using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Focus group discussions were held after the game and thematically analysed.

RESULTS: One hundred forty-five students (38.6% of the entire cohort) played the game, of which 59 students completed the pre- and post-intervention surveys. After the game, self-reported knowledge increased. Regarding objective knowledge, an increase in the proportion of students who answered one of the two questions correctly was observed, while the proportion of correct responses decreased for the other question. Student's responses to two out of five attitude questions were significantly more positive. The proportion of students who recognized the importance of climate change education, to inform patients and society about the health impacts of climate change, increased. Moreover, survey results indicated a significant increase in climate worry subsequent to the game. Eleven students participated in the focus group discussions. Thematic analysis highlighted participants' reflections on the roles and responsibilities in climate change and health, along with their realisation of the tools for action that climate and health co-benefits provide. Another significant aspect was the importance participants placed on learning alongside peers with diverse attitudes. Additionally, participants appreciated the tangible overview of climate change and health provided by the serious game.

CONCLUSIONS: Our novel serious game addressed an important gap in the medical curriculum. The game can enable medical students to cultivate the necessary knowledge and attitudes to promote health in times of a climate crisis. The accompanying climate worry needs attention through the empowerment of students' agency to foster change.

RevDate: 2024-06-05
CmpDate: 2024-06-06

Abebe DM, Mengistie DT, AA Mekonen (2024)

The influence of climate change on the sesame yield in North Gondar, North Ethiopia: Application Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) time series model.

BMC plant biology, 24(1):506.

Sesame is a major annual oil crop that is grown practically everywhere in tropical and subtropical Asia, as well as Africa, for its very nutritious and tasty seeds. Rising temperatures, droughts, floods, desertification, and weather all have a significant impact on agricultural production, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to examine the influence of climate change on the sesame yield in North Gondar, North Ethiopia, by using the autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) time series model. This study employed climate data from the Bahirdar Agrometeorological Center and secondary data on sesame production from the Ethiopian Statistical Service, spanning 36 years, from 1987 to 2023. Autoregressive Distributed LAG (ARDL) includes diagnostic tests for both short- and long-term autoregressive models. The results for the long-run and short-run elastic coefficients show a significant positive association between temperatures and sesame yield. Sesame yield and rainfall have a significant negative long-run and short-run relationship in North Gondar, North Ethiopia. ARDL results confirm that temperature and rainfall have significant effects on sesame productivity. Temperature had a considerable favorable effect on sesamen production, but rainfall had a negative effect in North Gondar, Ethiopia. Based on the evidence acquired from our study, we made several policy recommendations and suggestions to government officials, policymakers, new technologies, researchers, policy development planners, and other stakeholders in order to develop or implement new technology to halt its production and direct adaptation measures in light of the certainty of global warming and the characteristics of climate-dependent agricultural production.

RevDate: 2024-06-05
CmpDate: 2024-06-05

Perry D, Tamarit E, Sundell E, et al (2024)

Physiological responses of Atlantic cod to climate change indicate that coastal ecotypes may be better adapted to tolerate ocean stressors.

Scientific reports, 14(1):12896.

Healthy ecosystems and species have some degree of resilience to changing conditions, however as the frequency and severity of environmental changes increase, resilience may be diminished or lost. In Sweden, one example of a species with reduced resilience is the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). This species has been subjected to overfishing, and with additional pressures such as habitat degradation and changing environmental conditions there has been little to no recovery, despite more than a decade of management actions. Given the historical ecological, economical, and cultural significance of cod, it is important to understand how Atlantic cod respond to global climate change to recover and sustainably manage this species in the future. A multi-stressor experiment was conducted to evaluate physiological responses of juvenile cod exposed to warming, ocean acidification, and freshening, changes expected to occur in their nursery habitat. The response to single drivers showed variable effects related to fish biometrics and increased levels of oxidative stress dependent parameters. Importantly, two separate responses were seen within a single treatment for the multi-stressor and freshening groups. These within-treatment differences were correlated to genotype, with the offshore ecotype having a heightened stress response compared to the coastal ecotype, which may be better adapted to tolerate future changes. These results demonstrate that, while Atlantic cod have some tolerance for future changes, ecotypes respond differently, and cumulative effects of multiple stressors may lead to deleterious effects for this important species.

RevDate: 2024-06-05
CmpDate: 2024-06-05

Miller MR, Landrigan PJ, Arora M, et al (2024)

Environmentally Not So Friendly: Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Wildfires: JACC Focus Seminar, Part 1.

Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 83(23):2291-2307.

Environmental stresses are increasingly recognized as significant risk factors for adverse health outcomes. In particular, various forms of pollution and climate change are playing a growing role in promoting noncommunicable diseases, especially cardiovascular disease. Given recent trends, global warming and air pollution are now associated with substantial cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. As a vicious cycle, global warming increases the occurrence, size, and severity of wildfires, which are significant sources of airborne particulate matter. Exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with cardiovascular disease, and these effects are underpinned by mechanisms that include oxidative stress, inflammation, impaired cardiac function, and proatherosclerotic effects in the circulation. In the first part of a 2-part series on pollution and cardiovascular disease, this review provides an overview of the impact of global warming and air pollution, and because of recent events and emerging trends specific attention is paid to air pollution caused by wildfires.

RevDate: 2024-06-05
CmpDate: 2024-06-05

Khatana SAM (2024)

Climate Change and Cardiovascular Mortality: Will Fewer Cold Days Balance Out More Hot Days?.

Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 83(23):2288-2290.

RevDate: 2024-06-05

Shaban M, Amer FGM, MM Shaban (2024)

The impact of nursing sustainable prevention program on heat strain among agricultural elderly workers in the context of climate change.

Geriatric nursing (New York, N.Y.), 58:215-224 pii:S0197-4572(24)00121-6 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: This study assesses a geriatric nursing-led sustainable heat prevention program for elderly agricultural workers. It targets those aged 60 and above, addressing the heightened risk of heat strain in the era of climate change.

METHODS: A community-based quasi-experimental design involved 120 elderly agricultural workers, divided into intervention and control groups. The program, spanning three months, included education on hydration, rest, protective clothing, and recognition of heat-related illnesses.

RESULTS: The intervention led by geriatric nursing professionals showed significant improvements in heat strain metrics. The Heat Strain Score Index (HSSI) and the Observational-Perceptual Heat Strain Risk Assessment (OPHSRA) Index indicated increased safety levels and reduced risk categories among participants.

CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates the effectiveness of a geriatric nursing-led, tailored prevention program in reducing heat strain among elderly agricultural workers. It highlights the crucial role of nursing in adapting healthcare practices to the challenges posed by climate change.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, ID NCT06192069 retrospectively registered.

RevDate: 2024-06-05

Kuhn BT, R Gupta (2024)

Improving Wildfire Readiness Among Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma: Applying a Population Health Approach to Climate Change.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.) [Epub ahead of print].

As a result of climate change, wildfire frequency, duration, and severity are increasing in the United States. Exposure to wildfire-related air pollutants can lead to negative health outcomes, particularly among patients with pre-existing respiratory diseases (eg, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and those who are at higher risk for developing these conditions. Underserved communities are disproportionately affected for multiple reasons, including lack of financial and social resources, increased exposure to air pollutants at home and at work, and impaired access to healthcare. To best serve clinically high-risk and underserved populations, health systems must leverage community public health data, develop and mobilize a wildfire preparedness action plan to identify populations at high risk, and implement interventions to mitigate the consequences of poor air quality. University of California, Davis Health, located at the epicenter of the largest wildfires in California's history, has developed the 5 pillar Wildfire Population Health Approach: (1) identify clinically at-risk and underserved patient populations using well-validated, condition-targeted registries; (2) assemble multidisciplinary care teams to understand the needs of these communities and patients; (3) create custom analytics and wildfire-risk stratification; (4) develop care pathways based on wildfire-risk tiers by disease, risk of exposure, and healthcare access; and (5) identify outcome measures tailored to interventions with a commitment to continuous, iterative improvement efforts. The Wildfire Population Health Approach provides an action plan for health systems and care teams to meet the needs of clinically at-risk and underserved patients affected by the increasing health threat posed by climate change-related wildfires.

RevDate: 2024-06-05
CmpDate: 2024-06-05

Taylor PJ, Kearney TC, Clark VR, et al (2024)

Southern Africa's Great Escarpment as an amphitheater of climate-driven diversification and a buffer against future climate change in bats.

Global change biology, 30(6):e17344.

Hosting 1460 plant and 126 vertebrate endemic species, the Great Escarpment (hereafter, Escarpment) forms a semi-circular "amphitheater" of mountains girdling southern Africa from arid west to temperate east. Since arid and temperate biota are usually studied separately, earlier studies overlooked the biogeographical importance of the Escarpment as a whole. Bats disperse more widely than other mammalian taxa, with related species and intraspecific lineages occupying both arid and temperate highlands of the Escarpment, providing an excellent model to address this knowledge gap. We investigated patterns of speciation and micro-endemism from modeled past, present, and future distributions in six clades of southern African bats from three families (Rhinolophidae, Cistugidae, and Vespertilionidae) having different crown ages (Pleistocene to Miocene) and biome affiliations (temperate to arid). We estimated mtDNA relaxed clock dates of key divergence events across the six clades in relation both to biogeographical features and patterns of phenotypic variation in crania, bacula and echolocation calls. In horseshoe bats (Rhinolophidae), both the western and eastern "arms" of the Escarpment have facilitated dispersals from the Afrotropics into southern Africa. Pleistocene and pre-Pleistocene "species pumps" and temperate refugia explained observed patterns of speciation, intraspecific divergence and, in two cases, mtDNA introgression. The Maloti-Drakensberg is a center of micro-endemism for bats, housing three newly described or undescribed species. Vicariance across biogeographic barriers gave rise to 29 micro-endemic species and intraspecific lineages whose distributions were congruent with those identified in other phytogeographic and zoogeographic studies. Although Köppen-Geiger climate models predict a widespread replacement of current temperate ecosystems in southern Africa by tropical or arid ecosystems by 2070-2100, future climate Maxent models for 13 bat species (all but one of those analyzed above) showed minimal range changes in temperate species from the eastern Escarpment by 2070, possibly due to the buffering effect of mountains to climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-05

Li GY, Li Y, H Liu (2024)

Distribution patterns of Phytoseiulus persimilis in response to climate change.

Pest management science [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: The biological control agent Phytoseiulus persimilis is a commercialized specialist predator of two agricultural pest mite species Tetranychus urticae and Tetranychus evansi. Biocontrol of these pest species by P. persimilis has achieved success in biological control in some areas. However, the lack of precise information about the influence of global climate change on the worldwide distribution of this biocontrol agent hampers international efforts to manage pest mites with P. persimilis. With 276 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables, this study investigated the potential global distribution of P. persimilis.

RESULTS: The results demonstrated that the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model performed well, with the area under the curve being 0.956, indicating the high accuracy of this model. Two variables, the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio_6) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio_19) were the most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of P. persimilis, contributing more than 30% to the model, respectively. The suitable area currently occupies 21.67% of the world's land area, spanning latitudes between 60°S and 60°N. Under shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 (high-carbon emissions), the low suitable area would increase by 1.31% until the 2050s.

CONCLUSION: This study successfully identified that south-eastern China, parts of countries in the Mediterranean coastal regions, including Libya, Algeria, Portugal, Spain, and France, are climatically favorable regions for P. persimilis, providing valuable information about the potential areas where it can be effectively exploited as biocontrol agents in classical biological control programs to manage pest spider mites environmentally friendly. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

RevDate: 2024-06-05
CmpDate: 2024-06-05

Périard JD, Brown HA, B Clark (2024)

Cross-disciplinary heat acclimatization research for climate change resilience.

Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985), 136(6):1341.

RevDate: 2024-06-05
CmpDate: 2024-06-05

Niclou AM, Chen KY, LM Redman (2024)

The juxtaposition between heat stress from global warming and human health.

Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985), 136(6):1346-1347.

RevDate: 2024-06-05

Wang D, Li L, Ning R, et al (2024)

Satellite Tracking Reveals the Speed Up of the Lacustrine Algal Bloom Drift in Response to Climate Change.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Satellite evidence indicates a global increase in lacustrine algal blooms. These blooms can drift with winds, resulting in significant changes of the algal biomass spatial distribution, which is crucial in bloom formation. However, the lack of long-term, large-scale observational data has limited our understanding of bloom drift. Here, we have developed a novel method to track the drift using multi-source remote sensing satellites and presented a comprehensive bloom drift data set for four typical lakes: Lake Taihu (China, 2011-2021), Lake Chaohu (China, 2011-2020), Lake Dianchi (China, 2003-2021), and Lake Erie (North America, 2003-2021). We found that blooms closer to the water surface tend to drift faster. Higher temperatures and lower wind speeds bring blooms closer to the water surface, therefore accelerating drift and increasing biomass transportation. Under ongoing climate change, algal blooms are increasingly likely to spread over larger areas and accumulate in downwind waters, thereby posing a heightened risk to water resources. Our research greatly improves the understanding of algal bloom dynamics and provides new insights into the driving factors behind the global expansion of algal blooms. Our bloom-drift-tracking methodology also paves the way for the development of high-precision algal bloom prediction models.

RevDate: 2024-06-05

Tang H, Chen L, Liu S, et al (2024)

Reconsidering the Effectiveness of Fear Appeals: An Experimental Study of Interactive Fear Messaging to Promote Positive Actions on Climate Change.

Journal of health communication [Epub ahead of print].

Masspersonal communication has emerged as a compelling alternative persuasive approach in response to the widespread use of social media. It is crucial to comprehend how observing online interpersonal interactions regarding the fear appeal of climate change can foster pro-environmental behaviors among users. This study examines the effects of vicarious message interactivity in promoting actions against climate change and the underlying mechanisms behind this effect. The results of an online experiment conducted in China (N = 236) revealed that psychological reactance and message elaboration mediated the effects of vicarious message interactivity on behavioral intention in a serial indirect effect. In comparison to static fear appeal, interactive fear appeal proves effective in reducing psychological reactance, promoting message elaboration, and ultimately increasing intention to take actions against climate change. Our findings not only contribute to the literature on interactive communication but also provide insights for environmental-health campaigns on social media.

RevDate: 2024-06-05

Souto-Veiga R, Groeneveld J, Enright NJ, et al (2024)

Climate change may shift metapopulations towards unstable source-sink dynamics in a fire-killed, serotinous shrub.

Ecology and evolution, 14(6):e11488.

Climate change, with warming and drying weather conditions, is reducing the growth, seed production, and survival of fire-adapted plants in fire-prone regions such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. These effects of climate change on local plant demographics have recently been shown to reduce the persistence time of local populations of the fire-killed shrub Banksia hookeriana dramatically. In principle, extinctions of local populations may be partly compensated by recolonization events through long-distance dispersal mechanisms of seeds, such as post-fire wind and bird-mediated dispersal, facilitating persistence in spatially structured metapopulations. However, to what degree and under which assumptions metapopulation dynamics might compensate for the drastically increased local extinction risk remains to be explored. Given the long timespans involved and the complexity of interwoven local and regional processes, mechanistic, process-based models are one of the most suitable approaches to systematically explore the potential role of metapopulation dynamics and its underlying ecological assumptions for fire-prone ecosystems. Here we extend a recent mechanistic, process-based, spatially implicit population model for the well-studied fire-killed and serotinous shrub species B. hookeriana to a spatially explicit metapopulation model. We systematically tested the effects of different ecological processes and assumptions on metapopulation dynamics under past (1988-2002) and current (2003-2017) climatic conditions, including (i) effects of different spatio-temporal fires, (ii) effects of (likely) reduced intraspecific plant competition under current conditions and (iii) effects of variation in plant performance among and within patches. In general, metapopulation dynamics had the potential to increase the overall regional persistence of B. hookeriana. However, increased population persistence only occurred under specific optimistic assumptions. In both climate scenarios, the highest persistence occurred with larger fires and intermediate to long inter-fire intervals. The assumption of lower intraspecific plant competition caused by lower densities under current conditions alone was not sufficient to increase persistence significantly. To achieve long-term persistence (defined as >400 years) it was necessary to additionally consider empirically observed variation in plant performance among and within patches, that is, improved habitat quality in some large habitat patches (≥7) that could function as source patches and a higher survival rate and seed production for a subset of plants, specifically the top 25% of flower producers based on current climate conditions monitoring data. Our model results demonstrate that the impacts of ongoing climate change on plant demographics are so severe that even under optimistic assumptions, the existing metapopulation dynamics shift to an unstable source-sink dynamic state. Based on our findings, we recommend increased research efforts to understand the consequences of intraspecific trait variation on plant demographics, emphasizing the variation of individual traits both among and within populations. From a conservation perspective, we encourage fire and land managers to revise their prescribed fire plans, which are typically short interval, small fires, as they conflict with the ecologically appropriate spatio-temporal fire regime for B. hookeriana, and likely as well for many other fire-killed species.

RevDate: 2024-06-04
CmpDate: 2024-06-04

Wu L, Huang Z, Zhang X, et al (2024)

Harmonizing existing climate change mitigation policy datasets with a hybrid machine learning approach.

Scientific data, 11(1):580.

With the rapid proliferation of climate policies in both number and scope, there is an increasing demand for a global-level dataset that provides multi-indicator information on policy elements and their implementation contexts. To address this need, we developed the Global Climate Change Mitigation Policy Dataset (GCCMPD) using a semisupervised hybrid machine learning approach, drawing upon policy information from global, regional, and sector-specific sources. Differing from existing climate policy datasets, the GCCMPD covers a large range of policies, amounting to 73,625 policies of 216 entities. Through the integration of expert knowledge-based dictionary mapping, probability statistics methods, and advanced natural language processing technology, the GCCMPD offers detailed classification of multiple indicators and consistent information on sectoral policy instruments. This includes insights into objectives, target sectors, instruments, legal compulsion, administrative entities, etc. By aligning with the sector classification of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission datasets, the GCCMPD serves to help policy-makers, researchers, and social organizations gain a deeper understanding of the similarities and distinctions among climate activities across countries, sectors, and entities.

RevDate: 2024-06-04

Wetchayont P, Wirasatriya A, Hayasaka T, et al (2024)

Increasing marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Thailand after the global warming hiatus.

Marine environmental research pii:S0141-1136(24)00231-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been reported often throughout the world, producing severe effects on marine ecosystems. However, the spatial pattern and trend of MHWs in the Gulf of Thailand (GOT) is still unknown. Based on high-resolution daily satellite data over a 40-year period from 1982 to 2021, changes in annual mean SST and MHW occurrences across the GOT are explored here. The results demonstrate that during a warming hiatus (1998-2009), annual mean SST in the GOT encountered a dropping trend, followed by an increasing trend during a warming reacceleration period (2010-2021). Although a warming hiatus and a warming reacceleration occurred in the annual mean SST after 1998, regional averaged SSTs were still 0.18 °C-0.42 °C higher than that for 1982-1997. Statistical distributions reveal that there was a significant shift in both annual mean SSTs and annual extreme hot SSTs. These changes have the potential to increase the frequency of MHWs. Further analysis reveals that MHW frequency has increased at a rate of 1.11 events per decade from 1982 to 2021, which is 2.5 times the global mean rate. For the period 2010-2021, the frequency and intensity of MHWs in the GOT have never dropped, but have instead been more frequent, longer lasting and extreme than those metrics of MHWs between 1982 and 2009. Furthermore, the findings highlight significant changes in the SST over the GOT that may lead us to change or modify the reference period of the MHW definition. The findings also suggest that heat transport and redistribution mechanisms in the GOT sea are changing. This study contributes to our understanding of MHW features in the GOT and the implications for marine ecosystems.

RevDate: 2024-06-04

Krogh A, Junginger M, Shen L, et al (2024)

Climate change impacts of bioenergy technologies: A comparative consequential LCA of sustainable fuels production with CCUS.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)03807-5 [Epub ahead of print].

The use of sustainable biomass can be a cost-effective way of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions in the maritime and aviation sectors. Biomass, however, is a limited resource, and therefore, it is important to use the biomass where it creates the highest value, not only economically, but also in terms of GHG reductions. This study comprehensively evaluates the GHG reduction potential of utilising forestry residue in different bioenergy technologies using a consequential LCA approach. Unlike previous studies that assess GHG impacts per unit of fuel produced, this research takes a feedstock-centric approach which enables comparisons across systems that yield diverse products and by-products. Three technologies-combined heat and power plant with carbon capture, hydrothermal liquefaction, and gasification-are assessed, while considering both carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and utilisation (CCU). Through scenario analysis, the study addresses uncertainty, and assumptions in the LCA modelling. It explores the impact of energy systems, fuel substitution efficiency, renewable energy expansion, and the up/down stream supply chain. All technology pathways showed a potential for net emissions savings when including avoided emissions from substitution of products, with results varying from -111 to -1742 kgCO2eq per tonne residue. When combining the bioenergy technologies with CCU the dependency on the energy system in which they are operated was a significantly higher compared to CCS. The breakpoint was found to be 44 kg CO2eq/kWh electricity meaning that the marginal electricity mix has to be below this point for CCU to obtain lower GHG emissions. Furthermore, it is evident that the environmental performance of CCU technologies is highly sensitive to how it will affect the ongoing expansion of renewable electricity capacity.

RevDate: 2024-06-04

Liu Z, Si J, Jia B, et al (2024)

The dominant influencing factors of desertification and ecological risk changes in Qinghai Area of Qilian Mountains National Park: Climate change or human activity?.

Journal of environmental management, 362:121335 pii:S0301-4797(24)01321-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Transitional features of desert environments partially determine the risks associated with ecosystems. Influenced by climate change and human activities, the variability and uncertainty of desertification levels and ecological risks in the Qinghai Area of Qilian Mountain National Park (QMNPQA) has become increasingly prominent. As a critical ecological barrier in northwest China, monitoring desertification dynamics and ecological risks is crucial for maintaining ecosystem stability. This study identifies the optimal monitoring model from four constructed desertification monitoring models and analyzes spatiotemporal changes in desertification. The spatial and temporal changes in ecological risks and their primary driving factors were analyzed using methods such as raster overlay calculation, geographic detector, cloud model, and trend analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: The desertification feature spatial model based on GNDVI-Albedo demonstrates better applicability in the study area, with an inversion accuracy of 81.24%. The levels of desertification and ecological risks in QMNPQA exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, with a gradual decrease observed from northwest to southeast. From 2000 to 2020, there is an overall decreasing trend in desertification levels and ecological risks, with the decreasing trend area accounting for 89.82% and 85.71% respectively, mainly concentrated in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the study area. The proportion of areas with increasing trends is 4.49% and 7.05% respectively, scattered in patches in the central and southern edge areas. Surface temperature (ST), Digital Elevation Map (DEM), and Green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) are the most influential factors determining the spatial distribution of ecological risks in QMNPQA. The effects of management and climatic factors on ecological risks demonstrate a significant antagonistic effect, highlighting the positive contributions of human activities in mitigating the driving effects of climate change on ecological risks. The research results can provide reference for desertification prevention and ecological quality improvement in QMNPQA.

RevDate: 2024-06-04

Siemon M, Diekema AR, RA Calabria (2024)

Cross sectional survey of attitudes on sustainability and climate change among baccalaureate nursing faculty and students.

Nurse education today, 140:106268 pii:S0260-6917(24)00178-3 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Nurse educators are critical to ensuring future nurses are prepared to meet healthcare needs due to climate change.

AIM: The purpose of this research was to assess the attitudes of nursing students and faculty on sustainability and climate change in nursing and nursing education.

DESIGN: This study used a descriptive, cross-sectional online survey of nursing students and faculty recruited online and at national conferences.

SETTINGS: Online survey.

PARTICIPANTS: A convenience sample of students and faculty were recruited from a national student nursing convention and a national meeting of community health nursing educators along with the principal investigator's university. Additional faculty were recruited from national nursing education organization email listservs. Eligibility criteria included adults 18 years or older who are enrolled students or faculty in an undergraduate nursing program.

METHODS: Participants completed the Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey (SANS_2) survey online. Survey responses were downloaded and analyzed using IBM SPSS.

RESULTS: Independent sample Mann-Whitney U tests of responses from faculty and students was significantly different, p = 0.047, for the question "Issues about climate change should be included in the nursing curriculum". Comparison of SANS_2 overall means from first-year nursing students in other countries showed lower mean scores among first-year U.S. students that climate and sustainability are important issues of nursing and nursing education. Comparison of faculty overall SANS_2 means found greater support for including climate change and sustainability among U.S. nursing faculty when compared with faculty from South Carolina.

CONCLUSIONS: The results of the survey found differences in support among baccalaureate faculty and students for including climate change and sustainability in nursing education. Additional research into the effectiveness of learning activities needs to be done by nurse educators and researchers as part of on-going efforts to ensure future nursing students understand the impact of climate change on health.

RevDate: 2024-06-04

Hou L, Yang J, Ji C, et al (2024)

Water Scarcity Assessment of Hydropower Plants in China under Climate Change, Sectoral Competition, and Energy Expansion.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Hydropower plays a pivotal role in low-carbon electricity generation, yet many projects are situated in regions facing heightened water scarcity risks. This research devised a plant-level Hydropower Water Scarcity Index (HWSI), derived from the ratio of water demand for electricity generation to basin-scale available runoff water. We assessed the water scarcity of 1736 hydropower plants in China for the baseline year 2018 and projected into the future from 2025 to 2060. The results indicate a notable increase in hydropower generation facing moderate to severe water scarcity (HWSI >0.05), rising from 10% in 2018 to 24-34% of the national total (430-630 TWh), with a projected peak in the 2030s-2040s under the most pessimistic scenarios. Hotspots of risk are situated in the southwest and northern regions, primarily driven by decreased river basin runoff and intensified sectoral water use, rather than by hydropower demand expansion. Comparative analysis of four adaptation strategies revealed that sectoral water savings and enhancing power generation efficiency are the most effective, potentially mitigating a high of 16% of hydropower risks in China. This study provides insights for formulating region-specific adaptation strategies and assessing energy-water security in the face of evolving environmental and societal challenges.

RevDate: 2024-06-04
CmpDate: 2024-06-04

Pelissolo A (2024)

[Eco-anxiety: an emerging disorder linked to climate change].

La Revue du praticien, 74(5):529-532.

AN EMERGING DISORDER LINKED TO CLIMATE CHANGE. Eco-anxiety is the chronic fear of an environmental disaster, particularly in relation to global warming. Emerging in the 1990s, this concern is increasingly developing in all countries, especially among younger generations. It is not currently recognized as a diagnosis in psychiatric classifications, but some people (about 3% of the population) experience significant suffering and symptoms that can impair their quality of life. The role of the physician is then to look for an underlying anxiety or depressive disorder, or to assess the intensity of a possible specific Eco-anxiety Disorder. Treatment is based primarily on psychotherapeutic listening, stress and anxiety management methods, and cognitive behavioral therapy aimed at giving the patient better control over their emotions and means of action.

RevDate: 2024-06-04

Adame BJ, LD Mattson (2024)

Vested Interest Theory as a Framework for Understanding Anthropogenic Climate Change Risk Perceptions.

Health communication [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change due to anthropogenic activities is contributing to the systematic warming of Earth. A warming planet represents an existential threat to humanity, contributing to the increased frequency and magnitude of multiple natural hazards. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that time is running out to create meaningful change to avert climate-related consequences. This research posits Vested Interest Theory (VIT) as a potentially useful framework for assessing attitudes and risk perceptions associated with anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Vested Interest Theory mediates the attitude-behavior relationship where highly vested individuals are more likely to behave in attitudinally-consistent ways. Vestedness is conceptualized as five distinct and observable variables: salience, certainty, immediacy, self-efficacy, and response-efficacy. To test VIT's efficacy in this context, a survey was conducted with participants crowdsourced from Amazon's Mechanical Turk platform (N = 1053). Participants responded to items designed to measure their individual vestedness in ACC consequences, risk perceptions, and behavioral intentions. This initial investigation shows that VIT's constituent variables predict consequential amounts of observed variance in critical variables including risk perception, perceived event severity, and behavioral intentions related to ACC hazard mitigation. The results support the use of VIT as a framework for understanding attitude-behavior relationships associated with ACC mitigation. Based on these findings, we argue that VIT can also serve as a valuable message design framework to motivate ACC-related mitigation actions.

RevDate: 2024-06-04

Lee BY, Pavilonis B, John DC, et al (2024)

The Need to Focus More on Climate Change Communication and Incorporate More Systems Approaches.

Society is at an inflection point-both in terms of climate change and the amount of data and computational resources currently available. Climate change has been a catastrophe in slow motion with relationships between human activity, climate change, and the resulting effects forming a complex system. However, to date, there has been a general lack of urgent responses from leaders and the general public, despite urgent warnings from the scientific community about the consequences of climate change and what can be done to mitigate it. Further, misinformation and disinformation about climate change abound. A major problem is that there has not been enough focus on communication in the climate change field. Since communication itself involves complex systems (e.g. information users, information itself, communications channels), there is a need for more systems approaches to communication about climate change. Utilizing systems approaches to really understand and anticipate how information may be distributed and received before communication has even occurred and adjust accordingly can lead to more proactive precision climate change communication. The time has come to identify and develop more effective, tailored, and precise communication for climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-04
CmpDate: 2024-06-03

Sarre A, Demarcq H, Keenlyside N, et al (2024)

Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security.

Scientific reports, 14(1):12684.

Climate change is recognised to lead to spatial shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by altering their environmental optima. Fish supply along the Northwest African coast is significant at both socio-economic and cultural levels. Evaluating the impacts of climatic change on small pelagic fish is a challenge and of serious concern in the context of shared stock management. Evaluating the impact of climate change on the distribution of small pelagic fish, a trend analysis was conducted using data from 2363 trawl samplings and 170,000 km of acoustics sea surveys. Strong warming is reported across the Southern Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), extending from Morocco to Senegal. Over 34 years, several trends emerged, with the southern CCLME experiencing increases in both wind speed and upwelling intensity, particularly where the coastal upwelling was already the strongest. Despite upwelling-induced cooling mechanisms, sea surface temperature (SST) increased in most areas, indicating the complex interplay of climatic-related stressors in shaping the marine ecosystem. Concomitant northward shifts in the distribution of small pelagic species were attributed to long-term warming trends in SST and a decrease in marine productivity in the south. The abundance of Sardinella aurita, the most abundant species along the coast, has increased in the subtropics and fallen in the intertropical region. Spatial shifts in biomass were observed for other exploited small pelagic species, similar to those recorded for surface isotherms. An intensification in upwelling intensity within the northern and central regions of the system is documented without a change in marine primary productivity. In contrast, upwelling intensity is stable in the southern region, while there is a decline in primary productivity. These environmental differences affected several small pelagic species across national boundaries. This adds a new threat to these recently overexploited fish stocks, making sustainable management more difficult. Such changes must motivate common regional policy considerations for food security and sovereignty in all West African countries sharing the same stocks.

RevDate: 2024-06-03

Moussavi A SMR, A Lak (2024)

Cultural landscapes in climate change: A framework for resilience in developing countries.

Journal of environmental management, 362:121310 pii:S0301-4797(24)01296-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Cultural landscapes, particularly cities with rich historical and cultural heritage, play a crucial role in bolstering the resilience of local communities. The occurrence of climate change-induced phenomena jeopardizes cultural landscapes, resulting in the deterioration of historical structures, natural landscapes, cultural heritage, the economy, and the livelihoods of residents in these areas. Therefore, adopting a resilient approach is essential for the integrated management of cultural landscapes. This study develops a model for enhancing cultural landscape resilience to climate change in Nishapur, a historical and cultural city in Iran. Through desk studies, factors affecting the resilience of cultural landscapes to climate change were extracted in the context of developing countries. Subsequently, a model was developed based on the frequency of the occurrence of dimensions and indicators. Snowball sampling was used to distribute questionnaires to 310 members of the academic and professional communities in the field. Next, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted using IBM SEM-AMOS to analyze the data and measure the reliability and validity of the model. The findings indicate that the driving factors of change, such as changes in livelihood and social issues, historical fabric and physical environment, natural hazards, biodiversity patterns, and management patterns, can significantly affect the resilience of cultural landscapes to climate change. The developed model can contribute to policymaking in various fields, including urban design and planning, economics, sociology, and cultural heritage conservation. This can play a vital role in creating cultural landscapes that are resilient to the increasing impacts of climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-04

Wong A, Frommel AY, Sumaila UR, et al (2024)

A traits-based approach to assess aquaculture's contributions to food, climate change, and biodiversity goals.

npj ocean sustainability, 3(1):30.

Aquaculture has the potential to support a sustainable and equitable food system in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) on food security, climate change, and biodiversity (FCB). Biological diversity amongst aquaculture organisms can drive diverse contributions to such goals. Existing studies have assessed the performance of a limited number of taxa in the general context of improving aquaculture production, but few explicitly consider the biological attributes of farmed aquatic taxa at the FCB nexus. Through a systematic literature review, we identify key traits associated with FCB and evaluate the potential of aquaculture to contribute to FCB goals using a fuzzy logic model. The majority of identified traits are associated with food security, and two-thirds of traits linked with food security are also associated with climate change or biodiversity, revealing potential co-benefits of optimizing a single trait. Correlations between FCB indices further suggest that challenges and opportunities in aquaculture are intertwined across FCB goals, but low mean FCB scores suggest that the focus of aquaculture research and development on food production is insufficient to address food security, much less climate or biodiversity issues. As expected, production-maximizing traits (absolute fecundity, the von Bertalanffy growth function coefficient K, macronutrient density, maximum size, and trophic level as a proxy for feed efficiency) highly influence a species' FCB potential, but so do species preferences for environmental conditions (tolerance to phosphates, nitrates, and pH levels, as well as latitudinal and geographic ranges). Many highly farmed species that are typically associated with food security, especially finfish, score poorly for food, climate, and biodiversity potential. Algae and mollusc species tend to perform well across FCB indices, revealing the importance of non-fish species in achieving FCB goals and potential synergies in integrated multi-trophic aquaculture systems. Overall, this study provides decision-makers with a biologically informed assessment of desirable aquaculture traits and species while illuminating possible strategies to increase support for FCB goals. Our findings can be used as a foundation for studying the socio-economic opportunities and barriers for aquaculture transitions to develop equitable pathways toward FCB-positive aquaculture across nuanced regional contexts.

RevDate: 2024-06-03

Liu S, Liu Y, Teschke K, et al (2024)

Correction: Incorporating mesopelagic fish into the evaluation of marine protected areas under climate change scenarios.

Marine life science & technology, 6(2):363-364 pii:193.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9.].

RevDate: 2024-06-04

Yang L, Ling J, Lu L, et al (2024)

Identification of suitable habitats and priority conservation areas under climate change scenarios for the Chinese alligator (Alligator sinensis).

Ecology and evolution, 14(6):e11477.

Amphibians and reptiles, especially the critically endangered Chinese alligators, are vulnerable to climate change. Historically, the decline in suitable habitats and fragmentation has restricted the distribution of Chinese alligators to a small area in southeast Anhui Province in China. However, the effects of climate change on range-restricted Chinese alligator habitats are largely unknown. We aimed to predict current and future (2050s and 2070s) Chinese alligator distribution and identify priority conservation areas under climate change. We employed species distribution models, barycenter migration analyses, and the Marxian model to assess current and future Chinese alligator distribution and identify priority conservation areas under climate change. The results showed that the lowest temperature and rainfall seasonality in the coldest month were the two most important factors affecting the distribution of Chinese alligators. Future predictions indicate a reduction (3.39%-98.41%) in suitable habitats and a westward shift in their distribution. Further, the study emphasizes that suitable habitats for Chinese alligators are threatened by climate change. Despite the impact of the Anhui Chinese Alligator National Nature Reserve, protection gaps persist, with 78.27% of the area lacking priority protected area. Our study provides crucial data for Chinese alligator adaptation to climate change and underscores the need for improved conservation strategies. Future research should refine conservation efforts, consider individual plasticity, and address identified limitations to enhance the resilience of Chinese alligator populations in the face of ongoing climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-03

Maibach E, Kotcher J, L Patel (2024)

We can use our superpower to help end fossil fuel pollution and rise to the challenge of climate change.

Journal of communication in healthcare [Epub ahead of print].

In this commentary, we argue that health professionals can play a pivotal role in accelerating the adoption of public policies that will help communities, nations, and the world end fossil fuel pollution and rise to the challenges of climate change. We briefly describe our previously published research showing that communicating about fossil fuel pollution and the health relevance of climate change has many benefits in building public support for climate action. Most importantly, we make the case that because health professionals, especially medical doctors and other clinicians, are highly trusted, we collectively have a unique opportunity to bring people together across the political continuum to have constructive dialogues about the intertwined problems of fossil fuel pollution and climate change and what to do about them - even in the current hyper-partisan environment.

RevDate: 2024-06-01

Rijal M, Luo P, Mishra BK, et al (2024)

Global systematical and comprehensive overview of mountainous flood risk under climate change and human activities.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)03819-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Snow-covered mountainous regions are crucial for the hydrologic cycle. Any changes in the 3 cryosphere are critical and directly impact the hydrologic cycle and socio-environment of the 4 downstream. It is likely to occur more extreme events of precipitations, raising the risk of 5 flooding worldwide. Glacier melting is increasing, thus the formation of the moraine-dammed 6 lake called glacial lake, whose outburst may be a catastrophic disaster. Due to steep topography, 7 flash floods with high energy can sweep away infrastructure, electric power stations, property, 8 and livelihood and even change the channel morphology, hence the whole environment. In this 9 article, we present the causes of flooding in mountainous regions and historical trends of 10 mountainous flooding and its management policies. Carbon emission is a driver to increase the 11 temperature of the globe and which is triggering the flash floods in mountainous regions is 12 illustrated using data from different sources. The discussion section includes how technology 13 helps to achieve a climate-resilient environment. Understanding river morphology, mapping 14 and monitoring risks, and simulating essential natural processes are necessary for reducing the 15 cascading hazards in the mountains. There is still a gap in modern data collection techniques in 16 mountainous regions. More advanced technology for regional and global collaborations, 17 climate change adaption, and public awareness can build the climate resilience cryosphere.

RevDate: 2024-06-01
CmpDate: 2024-06-01

Garroway CJ, de Greef E, Lefort KJ, et al (2024)

Climate change introduces threatened killer whale populations and conservation challenges to the Arctic.

Global change biology, 30(6):e17352.

The Arctic is the fastest-warming region on the planet, and the lengthening ice-free season is opening Arctic waters to sub-Arctic species such as the killer whale (Orcinus orca). As apex predators, killer whales can cause significant ecosystem-scale changes. Setting conservation priorities for killer whales and their Arctic prey species requires knowledge of their evolutionary history and demographic trajectory. Using whole-genome resequencing of 24 killer whales sampled in the northwest Atlantic, we first explored the population structure and demographic history of Arctic killer whales. To better understand the broader geographic relationship of these Arctic killer whales to other populations, we compared them to a globally sampled dataset. Finally, we assessed threats to Arctic killer whales due to anthropogenic harvest by reviewing the peer-reviewed and gray literature. We found that there are two highly genetically distinct, non-interbreeding populations of killer whales using the eastern Canadian Arctic. These populations appear to be as genetically different from each other as are ecotypes described elsewhere in the killer whale range; however, our data cannot speak to ecological differences between these populations. One population is newly identified as globally genetically distinct, and the second is genetically similar to individuals sampled from Greenland. The effective sizes of both populations recently declined, and both appear vulnerable to inbreeding and reduced adaptive potential. Our survey of human-caused mortalities suggests that harvest poses an ongoing threat to both populations. The dynamic Arctic environment complicates conservation and management efforts, with killer whales adding top-down pressure on Arctic food webs crucial to northern communities' social and economic well-being. While killer whales represent a conservation priority, they also complicate decisions surrounding wildlife conservation and resource management in the Arctic amid the effects of climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-31

Das U, Datta P, B Behera (2024)

Identification of Major Threats of Climate Change, Hazards, and Anthropogenic Activities on Biodiversity Conservation in the Buxa Tiger Reserve, India.

Environmental management [Epub ahead of print].

The Himalayan forests are facing a range of threats, which are making conservation efforts challenging. Using a mixed-method approach, this study investigated the threats to biodiversity conservation in Buxa Tiger Reserve (BTR), a fragile ecosystem in the Eastern Himalayan foothills. The study found that between 1990 and 2021, BTR experienced rising summer temperatures and decreasing annual precipitation, contributing to forest dryness, water scarcity, and forest fires. Natural disasters such as floods, flash floods, earthquakes, and landslides also caused significant damage to wildlife habitats. Changes in land use and land cover, including encroachment, infrastructure development, fuelwood collection, and grazing practices, were also identified as significant drivers of ecosystem alteration. Besides, hunting and poaching also emerged as threats to wildlife populations in the reserve. By employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the study determined that land use change, infrastructure development, climate change, livestock grazing, and fuelwood collection pose significant threats to flora conservation outcomes in BTR, while infrastructure development, climate change, livestock grazing, and forest fires are the primary threats to wildlife conservation outcomes in the reserve. The study recommends the regulation of land use practices, promotion of sustainable livelihoods for local communities, effective conservation strategies, and public awareness and education programs to promote the value of biodiversity conservation.

RevDate: 2024-06-03
CmpDate: 2024-05-31

Zhang Z, Zhang Q, Chen B, et al (2024)

Global biogeography of microbes driving ocean ecological status under climate change.

Nature communications, 15(1):4657.

Microbial communities play a crucial role in ocean ecology and global biogeochemical processes. However, understanding the intricate interactions among diversity, taxonomical composition, functional traits, and how these factors respond to climate change remains a significant challenge. Here, we propose seven distinct ecological statuses by systematically considering the diversity, structure, and biogeochemical potential of the ocean microbiome to delineate their biogeography. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter the ecological status of the surface ocean by influencing environmental conditions, particularly nutrient and oxygen contents. Our predictive model, which utilizes machine learning, indicates that the ecological status of approximately 32.44% of the surface ocean may undergo changes from the present to the end of this century, assuming no policy interventions. These changes mainly include poleward shifts in the main taxa, increases in photosynthetic carbon fixation and decreases in nutrient metabolism. However, this proportion can decrease significantly with effective control of greenhouse gas emissions. Our study underscores the urgent necessity for implementing policies to mitigate climate change, particularly from an ecological perspective.

RevDate: 2024-06-03
CmpDate: 2024-05-31

van Tiel N, Fopp F, Brun P, et al (2024)

Regional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change.

Nature communications, 15(1):4375.

The conservation and restoration of forest ecosystems require detailed knowledge of the native plant compositions. Here, we map global forest tree composition and assess the impacts of historical forest cover loss and climate change on trees. The global occupancy of 10,590 tree species reveals complex taxonomic and phylogenetic gradients determining a local signature of tree lineage assembly. Species occupancy analyses indicate that historical forest loss has significantly restricted the potential suitable range of tree species in all forest biomes. Nevertheless, tropical moist and boreal forest biomes display the lowest level of range restriction and harbor extremely large ranged tree species, albeit with a stark contrast in richness and composition. Climate change simulations indicate that forest biomes are projected to differ in their response to climate change, with the highest predicted species loss in tropical dry and Mediterranean ecoregions. Our findings highlight the need for preserving the remaining large forest biomes while regenerating degraded forests in a way that provides resilience against climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-31
CmpDate: 2024-05-31

Berg CD (2024)

Addressing oncology's contribution to climate change.

The Lancet. Oncology, 25(6):690-691.

RevDate: 2024-06-03
CmpDate: 2024-05-31

Cai C, Lv L, Wei S, et al (2024)

How does climate change affect potential yields of four staple grain crops worldwide by 2030?.

PloS one, 19(5):e0303857.

Global food security basically depends on potential yields of staple grain crops worldwide, especially under climate change. However, most scholars use various models of production function in which climatic factors are often considered to estimate crop yield mostly at local or regional level. Therefore, in this paper: Potential yields of rice, wheat, maize and soybean worldwide by 2030 are projected creatively using Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average and Trend Regressed (ARIMA-TR) model in which actual yields in recent two years are used for testing the reliability of projection and Gray System (GS) model for validating the test; Especially individual impacts of climate change on the productions of rice, wheat, maize and soybean worldwide since 1961 are analyzed by using unary regression model in which global mean temperature and land precipitation are independent variable while the yield of crop being dependent one, respectively. Results show that: by 2030, the ratio between average and top yields of world rice is projected to be 50.6% increasing, while those of world wheat, world maize and world soybean are projected to be 38.0% increasing, 14.7% decreasing and 72.5% increasing, respectively. Since 1961 global warming has exerted a negative impact on average yield of world rice less than on its top, a positive effect on average yield of world wheat while a negative impact on its top, a positive effect on average yield of world maize less than on its top, and a positive influence on average yield of world soybean while a negative one on its top, which might be slightly mitigated by 'Carbon Peak' target. The fluctuation of global rainfall contributes to the productions of these crops much less than global warming during same period. Our findings indicate that: to improve global production of four staple grain crops by 2030, the priorities of input should be given to either rice or wheat in both high and low yield countries, whereas to maize in high yield countries and to soybean in low yield countries. These insights highlight some difference from previous studies, and provide academia with innovative comprehension and policy-decision makers with supportive information on sustainable production of these four staple grain crops for global food security under climate change in the future.

RevDate: 2024-06-01

Bellehumeur CR, LM Carignan (2024)

On proposing relational environmental metaphors to stimulate engagement and foster well-being in the midst of climate change.

Frontiers in psychiatry, 15:1377205.

Messages regarding climate change that are intended to stimulate responsible engagement can impact our mental health in both positive and negative ways, which in turn can increase or limit the potential engagement being sought through those very messages. Increasingly alarmist environmental metaphors are being brought into question due to their possibly detrimental impact on mental health and well-being, and in their place, relational environmental metaphors are proffered to instill hopeful and constructive individual and collective engagement for responsible climate action. This article discusses how both alarmist and relational environmental metaphors interact with eco-emotions. It proposes, in light of concepts arising from Porges' Polyvagal Theory - on the psychophysiology of autonomic states created in contexts of threatening cues and feelings of safety and connection -, that relational environmental metaphors are preferable for stimulating responsible collective engagement and fostering global well-being in the midst of climate change.

RevDate: 2024-06-01

Xian X, Qi Y, Zhao H, et al (2024)

Temperature extremes nip invasive macrophyte Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray in the bud: potential geographic distributions and risk assessment based on future climate change and anthropogenic influences.

Frontiers in plant science, 15:1393663.

Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray, an ornamental submerged plant indigenous to tropical America, has been introduced to numerous countries in Europe, Asia, and Oceania, impacting native aquatic ecosystems. Given this species is a popular aquarium plant and widely traded, there is a high risk of introduction and invasion into other environments. In the current study the potential global geographic distribution of C. caroliniana was predicted under the effects of climate change and human influence in an optimised MaxEnt model. The model used rigorously screened occurrence records of C. caroliniana from hydro informatic datasets and 20 associated influencing factors. The findings indicate that temperature and human-mediated activities significantly influenced the distribution of C. caroliniana. At present, C. caroliniana covers an area of approximately 1531×10[4] km[2] of appropriate habitat, especially in the south-eastern parts of South, central and North America, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, and most of Europe. The suitable regions are anticipated to expand under future climate scenarios; however, the dynamics of the changes vary between different extents of climate change. For example, C. caroliniana is expected to expand to higher latitudes, following global temperature increases under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, however, intolerance to temperature extremes may mediate invasion at higher latitudes under future extreme climate scenarios, e.g., SSP5-8.5. Owing to the severe impacts its invasion causes, early warning and stringent border quarantine processes are required to guard against the introduction of C. caroliniana especially in the invasion hotspots such as, Peru, Italy, and South Korea.

RevDate: 2024-05-30
CmpDate: 2024-05-30

Becker J, McDermott-Levy R, Moore C, et al (2024)

Social Capital as a Framework to Address Organizational Climate Change Policy.

Journal of gerontological nursing, 50(6):11-15.

PURPOSE: To examine state Area Agencies on Aging (AAAs) in Pennsylvania for services they provide to older adults regarding extreme events and how readiness can be captured through social networks and policies at the local, state, and federal levels.

METHOD: Using an online survey, 79% of AAA directors answered questions describing perceptions and actions related to social capital and its influence on policy.

RESULTS: AAAs acknowledged weather/temperature changes impact the need to prepare for common scenarios of extreme weather, temperature, and flooding. AAAs reported major social connections with county government and one state agency, with limited connections with federal agencies.

CONCLUSION: Multiple opportunities exist for AAAs to consider climate change in expansion efforts, specifically regarding health care. Geriatric nurses can play a key role in expansion, advocacy, and policy development for AAAs that serve older adults in the context of climate change. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 50(6), 11-15.].

RevDate: 2024-06-01
CmpDate: 2024-05-30

Dalapati T, Alway EJ, Mantri S, et al (2024)

Development of a curricular thread to foster medical students' critical reflection and promote action on climate change, health, and equity.

PloS one, 19(5):e0303615.

INTRODUCTION: Due to the health consequences arising from climate change, medical students will inevitably interact with affected patients during their training and careers. Accordingly, medical schools must incorporate education on the impacts of climate change on health and equity into their curricula. We created a curricular thread called "Climate Change, Health, and Equity" in the first-year preclinical medical program to teach foundational concepts and foster self-reflection and critical consciousness.

METHODS: The authors developed a continuum of practice including administrators, educators and faculty members, students, and community partners to plan and design curricular activities. First-year medical students at Duke University School of Medicine participated in seven mandatory foundational lectures and two experiential learning opportunities in the local community. Following completion of activities, students wrote a critical reflection essay and completed a self-directed learning exercise. Essays were evaluated using the REFLECT rubric to assess if students achieved critical reflection and for thematic analysis by Bloom's Taxonomy.

RESULTS: All students (118) submitted essays. A random sample of 30 (25%) essays underwent analysis. Evaluation by the REFLECT rubric underscored that all students were reflecting or critically reflecting on thread content. Thematic analysis highlighted that all students (30/30, 100%) were adept at identifying new areas of medical knowledge and connecting concepts to individual experiences, institutional practices, and public health and policy. Most students (27/30; 90%) used emotionally laden words, expressing negative feelings like frustration and fear but also positive sentiments of solidarity and hope regarding climate change and effects on health. Many students (24/30; 80%) expressed actionable items at every level including continuing self-directed learning and conversing with patients, minimizing healthcare waste, and advocating for climate-friendly policies.

CONCLUSION: After participating in the curricular thread, most medical students reflected on cognitive, affective, and actionable aspects relating to climate change, health, and equity.

RevDate: 2024-05-30

Konkel Neabore L (2024)

Erratum: "Wake-up Call: Rapid Increase in Human Fungal Diseases under Climate Change".

Environmental health perspectives, 132(5):59001.

RevDate: 2024-06-01
CmpDate: 2024-05-30

Williams SL, Toda M, Chiller T, et al (2024)

Effects of climate change on fungal infections.

PLoS pathogens, 20(5):e1012219.

RevDate: 2024-05-30

Nogueira LM, Ross AJ, D'Angelo H, et al (2024)

Climate Change in Comprehensive Cancer Control Plans in the US.

JAMA oncology pii:2819246 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2024-05-30

Kish-Doto J, CT Gloria (2024)

Change is in the air: considerations for how we communicate about climate change and health.

Journal of communication in healthcare [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2024-05-30

Zheng Y, Yang Q, Zhou H, et al (2024)

Editorial: Carbon-water-nitrogen processes and mechanisms of agricultural and forest ecosystems under future climate change.

Frontiers in plant science, 15:1423506.

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ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
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Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg.

Timelines

ESP now offers a large collection of user-selected side-by-side timelines (e.g., all science vs. all other categories, or arts and culture vs. world history), designed to provide a comparative context for appreciating world events.

Biographies

Biographical information about many key scientists (e.g., Walter Sutton).

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )