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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 26 Jul 2024 at 01:35 Created: 

Climate Change

The world is warming up, with 2023 being by far the hottest year since record keeping began and 2024 shaping up to be hotter yet. But these changes only involve one or two degrees. What's the big deal?

The amount of energy required to raise the temperature of one liter of water by one degree is one kilocalorie (kcal). Scaling up, the amount of energy required for a one-degree increase in the water temperature of the Gulf of Mexico is 2,434,000,000,000,000,000 kcals. That's 25 million times more energy than released by the WW-II atomic bomb that destroyed the city of Hiroshima and killed more than 100,000 people.

So, for every one degree increase in water temperature, the Gulf of Mexico takes on 25-million atomic bombs worth of new energy, which is then available to fuel hurricanes and other storms. Maybe a one-degree rise in temperature is a big deal.

Created with PubMed® Query: (( "climate change"[TITLE] OR "global warming"[TITLE] )) NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

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RevDate: 2024-07-23

Arshad Z, Madaleno M, Lillebø AI, et al (2024)

Digitalization's contribution towards sustainable development and climate change mitigation: An empirical evidence from EU economies.

Heliyon, 10(13):e33451.

The current study aims to test the usage of econometric and machine learning approaches to study the relationship between methane (CH4), a hydrocarbon component of natural gas, as a proxy of carbon emission, GDP as economic growth, financial development (FIN), and medium and high technologies as a proxy of information technology (ICT) and human development (HDI). This study observes two extended moderating effect models of human development index and financial development via medium and high technologies on carbon emissions over the 15-year periods from 2007 to 2021 for the 27 EU economies. Results indicate that when considered solely, ICT, economic growth, and HDI improve environmental quality and contribute to climate change mitigation, reducing methane emissions, whereas financial development seems to damage environmental quality. However, the crossed effects of ICT with HDI, and that of ICT with FIN, were considered in estimations, with results pointing out that those favorably affect climate change mitigation. Jointly considering ICT, HDI, and financial development proves to have a synergistic effect in promoting environmental health than each element on its own. Green and yellow countries were also identified revealing the countries for which a reduction and increase, respectively, in the value of methane emissions is predicted after three years. In the case of the entire panel, the STR (linear regression tree) algorithm predicts an average growth in methane emissions of around 3.64 %. Important policy directions are drawn considering the results obtained.

RevDate: 2024-07-23

Arzo S, M Hong (2024)

Resilient green infrastructure: Navigating environmental resistance for sustainable development, social mobility in climate change policy.

Heliyon, 10(13):e33524.

This study explores the complex dynamics of environmental resistance, policy stability, skill development, and green initiatives in light of the growing worldwide concerns about climate change. COP27 and the G20 Summit show that as microcosm of the global discourse, provides a unique opportunity to study it. This research sought to thoroughly investigate, the links among green infrastructure, green technological innovation, policy stability, skill development, and their combined effects on social mobility and climate change (Case-1), it also discusses the global talk on climate change in COP27 and G20 (Case-2). In Case-1 data were analyzed through the use of structural equation modeling (SEM) by adopting a quantitative approach, and in Case-2 data were analyzed using theme analysis by applying a qualitative approach. Using a mixed-method research approach, the study surveyed 375 locals living close to the CPEC corridor quantitatively and interviewed ten important stakeholders, including elected officials, environmental activists, and community leaders, qualitatively. The survey highlighted the complex perspectives and experiences of citizens with green programs and environmental legislation in the CPEC zone. The study revealed the perceptions and experiences of residents regarding green initiatives and environmental policies within the CPEC region. Key stakeholders provided valuable insights into policy formulation and ongoing environmental sustainability efforts. The analysis unveiled intricate relationships between green infrastructure, technological innovation, policy stability, skill development, and their collective impact on climate change and social mobility. Notably, the study identified a critical research gap in understanding these dynamics within regions undergoing substantial economic development. Policy formulation and continuing environmental sustainability efforts were aided by key stakeholders' ideas. Green infrastructure, technological innovation, policy stability, skill development, and their overall influence on climate change and social mobility were all examined. Notably, the study found a critical research vacuum in understanding these processes inside rapidly developing economies. Policymakers, environmental groups, and communities managing the fine line between economic success and environmental responsibility will find great value in the findings. This study is unique because it examines issues on climate change from a local perspective in a region that is rapidly developing economically, it also adds value to the climate change challenges on the global level. This study presents a substantial theoretical contribution by examining the intricate interactions among environmental opposition, policy stability, skill development, and green initiatives within the CPEC against the backdrop of global climate change concerns.

RevDate: 2024-07-21

Souza NF, Leal JS, Tourinho L, et al (2024)

Bioindicator aquatic insects at risk from climate change in a biodiversity hotspot.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)04973-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change can affect biological assemblages by shifting their species' geographic range and changing species richness. Aquatic insects represent more than half of the freshwater animal species but have been neglected mainly in climate change assessments, particularly in tropical ecosystems. Among the aquatic insect taxa, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) are well-known bioindicators of environmental changes and encompass an essential metric for rivers and streams' biomonitoring. Here, we use ecological niche models to project the impact of climate change on the distribution range and richness of EPT in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We found EPT to be at high risk from future climate change, with Plecoptera as the order of greatest concern. We projected range contraction of ca. 90 % of the analyzed EPT genera, resulting in a reduction in the richness of EPT genera under future climatic conditions. We projected >50 % contraction in the distribution of 50 % of Plecoptera, ≈14 % of Trichoptera, and ≈7 % of Ephemeroptera genera. The remaining climatically suitable regions in the Atlantic Forest are concentrated in the high-altitude areas, which may act as climate refuges for EPT biodiversity in the future. The projected changes in EPT's distribution range and richness may impact biomonitoring programs conducted in tropical ecosystems. Restricting EPT's geographic distribution may undermine its potential as a bioindicator and influence the composition of EPT assemblages at reference sites, which may lead to shifting baseline conditions. We reinforce the importance of considering future climatic conditions when planning long-term biomonitoring and priority areas for conservation.

RevDate: 2024-07-20

Memarsadeghi NP, Rowan S, Sisco AW, et al (2024)

Enhancing resilience: Integrating future flood modeling and socio-economic analysis in the face of climate change impacts.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)05043-5 [Epub ahead of print].

As climate change intensifies, future floods will become more severe in some areas with geographic variation, necessitating that local and regional governments implement systems to provide information for climate adaptation, particularly for vulnerable populations. Therefore, we aimed to develop a methodology to identify areas that are at an increased risk from future floods and independently socially vulnerable. In this study, 100-year recurrence interval flood extents and depths were estimated using an ensemble of six independent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models for a past and future period under the highest-emissions climate scenario. The flood inundation results were related to social vulnerability for two selected study areas in the Mississippi River Basin. The range of flood extents and depths for both time periods were estimated, and differences were evaluated to determine the effects from climate change. To identify at-risk areas, the relationship between the spatial distribution of flood depths and vulnerability was then assessed. Finally, an analysis of the current and future damages on infrastructure from flooding on residential housing was performed to determine whether damages are correlated with higher vulnerability areas. Results show in every flooding scenario, flood extents and depths are increasing in the future compared with the past, ranging from an increase of 6 to 76 km[2] in extent across both locations. A statistically significant relationship between spatial clusters of flooding and of vulnerability was found. The infrastructure analysis found that residential structures in the most vulnerable census tracts are 6 to 59 times more likely to experience moderate damage compared with the least vulnerable tracts depending on scenario. Overall, a framework was established to holistically understand the hydrologic and socioeconomic impacts of climate change, and a methodology was developed to use for allocating resources at the local scale.

RevDate: 2024-07-19

Liu F, Su L, Du Y, et al (2024)

No-interfered and visual evaluation of global warming impacts on phytoplankton-based copper bioavailability and then carbon sequestration.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)04911-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming has an increasingly serious impact on the ecological environment. Copper bioavailability plays an important physiological role in revealing the mechanism of carbon cycle, photosynthesis, and respiration. Here we reported a multifunctional carbon quantum dots fluorescence probe for no-interfered and visual determination of phytoplankton-based intracellular Cu(II), glucose, and reactive oxygen species (ROS). Glucose and ROS were explored to reflect the change in primary biomass and carbon sequestration. H2O2 is acted as the standard material of ROS, and the fitting parameter for glucose and H2O2 concentrations was 0.42(r = 0.9972). Both glucose, ROS, and Cu[2+] detection have advantages of wide linear range (24.8-3.96 × 10[5] μg/L, 6-9.6 × 10[5] ng/L and 5-15 × 10[3] nmol/L, respectively), high precision (1.22 %, 6.38 %, and 7.37 %, respectively), and low detection limit (86.7 ng/L, 5.32 ng/L, and 0.367 nmol/L, respectively). Cu[2+] uptake was increased with the increasing of temperature, and the copper bioavailability in increasing order was Cu-PorPhyr > Cu-phthalate > Cu-EDTA. There were significant positive correlation between glucose and Cu[2+](r = 0.9943). Copper bioavailability would directly affect the carbon sequestration, i.e., when the concentration of intracellular copper increases by 1 mg/L, the content of intracellular glucose increases by 412 mg/L approximately, equally to 2.47 g/L of carbon dioxide was fixed.

RevDate: 2024-07-19

Zhang X, Liu W, Feng Q, et al (2024)

Multi-objective optimization of the spatial layout of green infrastructures with cost-effectiveness analysis under climate change scenarios.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)05000-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Green infrastructure (GI) plays a significant role in alleviating urban flooding risk caused by urbanization and climate change. Due to space and financial limitations, the successful implementation of GI relies heavily on its layout design, and there is an increasing trend in using multi-objective optimization to support decision-making in GI planning. However, little is known about the hydrological effects of synchronously optimizing the size, location, and connection of GI under climate change. This study proposed a framework to optimize the size, location, and connection of typical GI facilities under climate change by combining the modified non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) and storm water management model (SWMM). The results showed that optimizing the size, location, and connection of GI facilities significantly increases the maximum reduction rate of runoff and peak flow by 13.4 %-24.5 % and 3.3 %-18 %, respectively, compared to optimizing only the size and location of GI. In the optimized results, most of the runoff from building roofs flew toward green space. Permeable pavement accounted for the highest average proportion of GI implementation area in optimal layouts, accounting for 29.8 %-54.2 % of road area. The average cost-effectiveness (C/E) values decreased from 16 %/10[5] Yuan under the historical period scenario to 14.3 %/10[5] Yuan and 14 %/10[5] Yuan under the two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. These results can help in understanding the optimization layout and cost-effectiveness of GI under climate change, and the proposed framework can enhance the adaptability of cities to climate change by providing specific cost-effective GI layout design.

RevDate: 2024-07-19
CmpDate: 2024-07-19

Obeagu EI, GU Obeagu (2024)

Adapting to the shifting landscape: Implications of climate change for malaria control: A review.

Medicine, 103(29):e39010.

Malaria, a global public health challenge, continues to affect millions of lives, particularly in regions where its transmission is endemic. The interplay between climate change and malaria dynamics has emerged as a critical concern, reshaping the landscape of this vector-borne disease. This review publication, titled "Adapting to the shifting landscape: Implications of climate change for malaria control," explores the multifaceted relationship between climate change and the control of malaria. The paper begins by dissecting the influence of climate change on malaria dynamics, including alterations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors that impact the habitat and life cycle of malaria vectors. It delves into the evolving ecology and behavior of malaria vectors in response to changing climatic conditions, emphasizing the importance of understanding these adaptations. As a response to this shifting landscape, the review discusses adaptive strategies for malaria control, ranging from vector control measures to the utilization of climate data in early warning systems. Community engagement and education are highlighted as essential components of these strategies, recognizing the vital role of local communities in effective malaria control efforts. The paper also identifies future directions and research needs, underscoring the importance of staying ahead of the evolving climate-malaria relationship. This review underscores the urgency of adapting to the changing landscape of malaria transmission driven by climate change. It emphasizes the significance of proactively addressing climate-related challenges to enhance malaria control and protect the health and well-being of vulnerable populations.

RevDate: 2024-07-19

Solano JH, Moitinho MA, Chiaramonte JB, et al (2024)

Organic matter decay and bacterial community succession in mangroves under simulated climate change scenarios.

Brazilian journal of microbiology : [publication of the Brazilian Society for Microbiology] [Epub ahead of print].

Mangroves are coastal environments that provide resources for adjacent ecosystems due to their high productivity, organic matter decomposition, and carbon cycling by microbial communities in sediments. Since the industrial revolution, the increase of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) released due to fossil fuel burning led to many environmental abnormalities such as an increase in average temperature and ocean acidification. Based on the hypothesis that climate change modifies the microbial diversity associated with decaying organic matter in mangrove sediments, this study aimed to evaluate the microbial diversity under simulated climate change conditions during the litter decomposition process and the emission of GHG. Thus, microcosms containing organic matter from the three main plant species found in mangroves throughout the State of São Paulo, Brazil (Rhizophora mangle, Laguncularia racemosa, and Avicennia schaueriana) were incubated simulating climate changes (increase in temperature and pH). The decay rate was higher in the first seven days of incubation, but the differences between the simulated treatments were minor. GHG fluxes were higher in the first ten days and higher in samples under increased temperature. The variation in time resulted in substantial impacts on α-diversity and community composition, initially with a greater abundance of Gammaproteobacteria for all plant species despite the climate conditions variations. The PCoA analysis reveals the chronological sequence in β-diversity, indicating the increase of Deltaproteobacteria at the end of the process. The GHG emission varied in function of the organic matter source with an increase due to the elevated temperature, concurrent with the rise in the Deltaproteobacteria population. Thus, these results indicate that under the expected climate change scenario for the end of the century, the decomposition rate and GHG emissions will be potentially higher, leading to a harmful feedback loop of GHG production. This process can happen independently of an impact on the bacterial community structure due to these changes.

RevDate: 2024-07-20

Bojago E, Tessema A, I Ngare (2024)

GIS-based spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends under climate change in different agro-ecological zones of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia.

Heliyon, 10(13):e33235.

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of climatic conditions within a region is paramount for informed rural planning and decision-making processes, particularly in light of the prevailing challenges posed by climate change and variability. This study undertook an assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall trends across various agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within Wolaita, utilizing data collected from ten strategically positioned rain gauge stations. The detection of trends and their magnitudes was facilitated through the application of the Mann-Kendall (MKs) test in conjunction with Sen's slope estimator. Spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall were further analyzed utilizing ArcGIS10.8 environment and XLSTAT with R programming tools. The outcomes derived from ordinary kriging analyses unveiled notable disparities in the coefficient of variability (CV) for mean annual rainfall across distinct AEZs. Specifically, observations indicated that lowland regions exhibit relatively warmer climates and lower precipitation levels compared to their highland counterparts. Within the lowland AEZs, the majority of stations showcased statistically non-significant positive trends (p > 0.05) in annual rainfall, whereas approximately two-thirds of midland AEZ stations depicted statistically non-significant negative trends. Conversely, over half of the stations situated within highland AEZs displayed statistically non-significant positive trends in annual rainfall. During the rainy season, highland AEZs experienced higher precipitation levels, while the south-central midland areas received a moderate amount of rainfall. In contrast, the northeast and southeast lowland AEZs consistently received diminished rainfall across all seasons compared to other regions. This study underscores the necessity for the climate resilient development and implementation of spatiotemporally informed interventions through implementing region-specific adaptation strategies, such as water conservation measures and crop diversification, to mitigate the potential impact of changing rainfall patterns on agricultural productivity in Wolaita.

RevDate: 2024-07-20

Ran W, Chen J, Zhao Y, et al (2024)

Global climate change-driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation.

Ecology and evolution, 14(7):e70003.

Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 10[4] km[2], while the contraction area is 25.40 × 10[4] km[2]; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 10[4] km[2], and the contraction area is 26.54 × 10[4] km[2]. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.

RevDate: 2024-07-20

Wang Z, Chang N, Li H, et al (2024)

Impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Pulex simulans and Polygenis gwyni.

Ecology and evolution, 14(7):e11621.

Pulex simulans and Polygenis gwyni are vectors of many flea-borne diseases. They were widely recorded in the United States and Mexico between 1970 and 2000. Maximum entropy models were used to explore the habitats of both fleas under different climate scenarios to provide the scientific basis for the surveillance and control of flea-borne diseases. We screened climate variables by principal component analysis and Pearson's correlation test and evaluated model performance by ROC curve. ArcMap was used to visualize expressions. Under current climatic conditions, the medium and highly suitable areas for P. simulans are estimated to be 9.16 × 10[6] km[2] and 4.97 × 10[6] km[2], respectively. These regions are predominantly located in South America, along the Mediterranean coast of Europe, the southern part of the African continent, the Middle East, North China, and Australia. For P. gwyni, the medium and highly suitable areas under current climatic conditions are approximately 4.01 × 10[6] and 2.04 × 10[6] km[2], respectively, with the primary distribution in North China extending to the Himalayas, near the Equator in Africa, and in a few areas of Europe. Under future climate scenarios, in the SSP3-7.0 scenario for the years 2081-2100, the area of high suitability for P. simulans is projected to reach its maximum. Similarly, in the SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2061-2080, the area of high suitability for P. gwyni is expected to reach its maximum. Under global climate change, there is a large range in the potential distribution for both fleas, with an overall upward trend in the area of habitat under future climate scenarios. Governments should develop scientific prevention and control measures to prevent the invasive alien species flea.

RevDate: 2024-07-20

Wang X, Li Z, Zhang L, et al (2024)

The optimized Maxent model reveals the pattern of distribution and changes in the suitable cultivation areas for Reaumuria songarica being driven by climate change.

Ecology and evolution, 14(7):e70015.

Reaumuria songarica, a drought-resistant shrub, is widely distributed and plays a crucial role in the northern deserts of China. It is a key species for desert rehabilitation and afforestation efforts. Using the Maxent model to predict suitable planting areas for R. songarica is an important strategy for combating desertification. With 184 occurrence points of R. songarica and 13 environmental variables, the optimized Maxent model has identified the main limiting factors for its distribution. Distribution patterns and variation trends of R. songarica were projected for current and future climates (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different scenarios (ssp_126, ssp_370, and ssp_585). Results show that setting parameters to RM (regulation multiplier) = 4 and FC (feature combination) = LQHPT yields a model with good accuracy and high reliability. Currently, R. songarica is primarily suitable for desert control in eight provinces and autonomous regions, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The total suitable planting area is 148.80 × 10[4] km[2], representing 15.45% of China's land area. Precipitation (Precipitation of the wettest month, Precipitation of the warmest quarter, and Annual precipitation) and Ultraviolet-B seasonality are the primary environmental factors limiting the growth and distribution of R. songarica. Mean temperature of the warmest quarter is the primary factor driving changes in the distribution of suitable areas for R. songarica under future climate scenarios. In future climate scenarios, the suitable planting area of R. songarica will shrink, and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitude, potentially indicate further desertification. The area of highly suitable habitat has increased, while moderately and less suitable habitat areas have decreased. Increased precipitation within R. songarica's water tolerance range is favorable for its growth and reproduction. With changes in the suitable cultivation area for R. songarica, priority should be given to exploring and utilizing its germplasm resources. Introduction and cultivation can be conducted in expanding regions, while scientifically effective measures should be implemented to protect germplasm resources in contracting regions. The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis for addressing desertification resulting from climate change and offer practical insights for the development, utilization, introduction, and cultivation of R. songarica germplasm resources.

RevDate: 2024-07-18

Vlahov D, A Kurth (2024)

The "15-Minute City" Concept in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Climate Change.

RevDate: 2024-07-20
CmpDate: 2024-07-18

Hollenbeck EC, DF Sax (2024)

Experimental evidence of climate change extinction risk in Neotropical montane epiphytes.

Nature communications, 15(1):6045.

Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.

RevDate: 2024-07-18

Stipcich P, Guala I, La Manna G, et al (2024)

How the seagrass Posidonia oceanica flowering will benefit from climate change.

Marine pollution bulletin, 206:116721 pii:S0025-326X(24)00698-2 [Epub ahead of print].

This study aimed at identifying the importance of the thermal framework preceding Posidonia oceanica flowering induction (autumn before the flowering year) and anthesis (summer of the flowering year). In 53 locations of Sardinia (Italy), 35 vertical shoots were collected in 2001, 2020 and 2023 and analyzed through lepidochronology, detecting past flowering events from 1991 to 2022. Flowering probability was positively correlated with autumn SST range and MHWs, stressing the importance of the temperature in the year preceding the flowering. Summer SST mean and Marine Cold Spell duration (the latter emerged as a novel outcome) also positively influenced flowering. A negative association was highlighted with the summer SST range. As the occurrence of MHWs will increase, and the SST range will also increase in the autumn and decrease in the summer, P. oceanica might benefit through a higher flowering frequency, leading to a greater resilience to disturbances due to higher genetic variation.

RevDate: 2024-07-18
CmpDate: 2024-07-18

Baigaliyeva M, Mount N, Gosling SN, et al (2024)

Unravelling long-term impact of water abstraction and climate change on endorheic lakes: A case study of Shortandy Lake in Central Asia.

PloS one, 19(7):e0305721 pii:PONE-D-23-24232.

Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent changes in many lakes remain unexplored. Modelling hydrological processes for CA lakes poses challenges in separating climatic change impacts from human management impacts due to limited data and long-term variability in hydrological regimes. This study developed a spatially lumped empirical model to investigate the effects of climate change and human water abstraction, using Shortandy Lake in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP) as a case study. Modelling results show a significant water volume decline from 231.7x106m3 in 1986 to 172.5x106m3 in 2016, primarily driven by anthropogenic water abstraction, accounting for 92% of the total volume deficit. The highest rates of water abstraction (greater than 25% of annual outflow) occurred from 1989 to 1993, coinciding with the driest period. Since 2013, the water volume has increased due to increased precipitation and, more importantly, reduced water abstraction. Despite limited observational data with which to calibrate the model, it performs well. Our analysis underscores the challenges in modelling lakes in data-sparse regions such as CA, and highlights the importance and benefits of developing lake water balance models for the region.

RevDate: 2024-07-18

Gervasio MP, Soana E, Gavioli A, et al (2024)

Contrasting effects of climate change on denitrification and nitrogen load reduction in the Po River (Northern Italy).

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

An increase in water temperature is one of the main factors that can potentially modify biogeochemical dynamics in lowland rivers, such as the removal and recycling of nitrogen (N). This effect of climate change on N processing deserves attention, as it may have unexpected impacts on eutrophication in the coastal zones. Intact sediment cores were collected seasonally at the closing section of the Po River, the largest Italian river and one of the main N inputs to the Mediterranean Sea. Benthic oxygen fluxes, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) rates were measured using laboratory dark incubations. Different temperature treatments were set up for each season based on historical data and future predictions. Higher water temperatures enhanced sediment oxygen demand and the extent of hypoxic conditions in the benthic compartment, favoring anaerobic metabolism. Indeed, warming water temperature stimulated nitrate (NO3[-]) reduction processes, although NO3[-] and organic matter availability were found to be the main controlling factors shaping the rates between seasons. Denitrification was the main process responsible for NO3[-] removal, mainly supported by NO3[-] diffusion from the water column into the sediments, and much more important than N recycling via DNRA. The predicted increase in the water temperature of the Po River due to climate change may exert an unexpected negative feedback on eutrophication by strongly controlling denitrification and contributing to partial buffering of N export in the lagoons and coastal areas, especially in spring.

RevDate: 2024-07-19

Xu Y, Smith P, Z Qin (2024)

Sustainable bioenergy contributes to cost-effective climate change mitigation in China.

iScience, 27(7):110232.

Bioenergy development is critical for achieving carbon neutrality. Biomass residues from agriculture, forest, and livestock manure provide substantial bioenergy resources in China, but their availability, climate, and economic impacts have not been evaluated systematically. Here we assess biomass sustainability, bioenergy potential, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reduction, and cost-effectiveness using an integrated data-modeling approach. Nationally, only 27% of biomass can be used for sustainable bioenergy production, but can contribute to significant climate change mitigation with optimized regional utilization. The annual GHG reduction can reach 1.0 Gt CO2e for bioenergy, or 1.4 Gt CO2e for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which is comparable to total terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks in China. The abatement cost varies regionally but is lower than many other carbon removal technologies. Our findings reveal region-specific bioenergy pathways that contribute to carbon neutrality, and encourage future assessments to explore factors including technological advances and carbon markets.

RevDate: 2024-07-19

Acosta D, Barrow A, Mahamadou IS, et al (2024)

Climate change and health in the Sahel: a systematic review.

Royal Society open science, 11(7):231602.

The Sahel region is projected to be highly impacted by the more frequent hazards associated with climate change, including increased temperature, drought and flooding. This systematic review examined the evidence for climate change-related health consequences in the Sahel. The databases used were Medline (PubMed), Embase (Ovid), Web of Science (Clarivate) and CABI Global Health. Hand searches were also conducted, which included directly engaging Sahelian researchers and hand-searching in the African Journals Online database. Of the 4153 studies found, 893 were identified as duplicates and the remaining 3260 studies were screened (title and abstract only) and then assessed for eligibility. A total of 81 studies were included in the systematic review. Most studies focused on vector-borne diseases, food security, nutrition and heat-related stress. Findings suggest that mosquito distribution will shift under different climate scenarios, but this relationship will not be linear with temperature, as there are other variables to consider. Food insecurity, stunting (chronic malnutrition) and heat-related mortality are likely to increase if no action is taken owing to the projected impact of climate change on environmental factors and agriculture. Seventy-one per cent of manuscripts (n = 58) had first authors from institutions in North America or Europe, of which 39.7% (n = 23) included co-authors from African institutions.

RevDate: 2024-07-19

Rose KC, Bierwagen B, Bridgham SD, et al (2023)

Indicators of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

Climatic change, 173(23):1-20.

Freshwater ecosystems, including lakes, streams, and wetlands, are responsive to climate change and other natural and anthropogenic stresses. These ecosystems are frequently hydrologically and ecologically connected with one another and their surrounding landscapes, thereby integrating changes throughout their watersheds. The responses of any given freshwater ecosystem to climate change depend on the magnitude of climate forcing, interactions with other anthropogenic and natural changes, and the characteristics of the ecosystem itself. Therefore, the magnitude and manner in which freshwater ecosystems respond to climate change is difficult to predict a priori. We present a conceptual model to elucidate how freshwater ecosystems are altered by climate change. We identify eleven indicators that describe the response of freshwater ecosystems to climate change, discuss their potential value and limitations, and describe supporting measurements. Indicators are organized in three inter-related categories: hydrologic, water quality, and ecosystem structure and function. The indicators are supported by data sets with a wide range of temporal and spatial coverage, and they inform important scientific and management needs. Together, these indicators improve the understanding and management of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Gontijo JB, Paula FS, Bieluczyk W, et al (2024)

Methane-cycling microbial communities from Amazon floodplains and upland forests respond differently to simulated climate change scenarios.

Environmental microbiome, 19(1):48.

Seasonal floodplains in the Amazon basin are important sources of methane (CH4), while upland forests are known for their sink capacity. Climate change effects, including shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures, may alter the functionality of soil microbial communities, leading to uncertain changes in CH4 cycling dynamics. To investigate the microbial feedback under climate change scenarios, we performed a microcosm experiment using soils from two floodplains (i.e., Amazonas and Tapajós rivers) and one upland forest. We employed a two-factorial experimental design comprising flooding (with non-flooded control) and temperature (at 27 °C and 30 °C, representing a 3 °C increase) as variables. We assessed prokaryotic community dynamics over 30 days using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and qPCR. These data were integrated with chemical properties, CH4 fluxes, and isotopic values and signatures. In the floodplains, temperature changes did not significantly affect the overall microbial composition and CH4 fluxes. CH4 emissions and uptake in response to flooding and non-flooding conditions, respectively, were observed in the floodplain soils. By contrast, in the upland forest, the higher temperature caused a sink-to-source shift under flooding conditions and reduced CH4 sink capability under dry conditions. The upland soil microbial communities also changed in response to increased temperature, with a higher percentage of specialist microbes observed. Floodplains showed higher total and relative abundances of methanogenic and methanotrophic microbes compared to forest soils. Isotopic data from some flooded samples from the Amazonas river floodplain indicated CH4 oxidation metabolism. This floodplain also showed a high relative abundance of aerobic and anaerobic CH4 oxidizing Bacteria and Archaea. Taken together, our data indicate that CH4 cycle dynamics and microbial communities in Amazonian floodplain and upland forest soils may respond differently to climate change effects. We also highlight the potential role of CH4 oxidation pathways in mitigating CH4 emissions in Amazonian floodplains.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Kwon Y, Jin Y, Lee JH, et al (2024)

Rice rhizobiome engineering for climate change mitigation.

Trends in plant science pii:S1360-1385(24)00150-X [Epub ahead of print].

The year 2023 was the warmest year since 1850. Greenhouse gases, including CO2 and methane, played a significant role in increasing global warming. Among these gases, methane has a 25-fold greater impact on global warming than CO2. Methane is emitted during rice cultivation by a group of rice rhizosphere microbes, termed methanogens, in low oxygen (hypoxic) conditions. To reduce methane emissions, it is crucial to decrease the methane production capacity of methanogens through water and fertilizer management, breeding of new rice cultivars, regulating root exudation, and manipulating rhizosphere microbiota. In this opinion article we review the recent developments in hypoxia ecology and methane emission mitigation and propose potential solutions based on the manipulation of microbiota and methanogens for the mitigation of methane emissions.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Sparling TM, Offner C, Deeney M, et al (2024)

Intersections of climate change with food systems, nutrition, and health: an overview and evidence map.

Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.) pii:S2161-8313(24)00108-X [Epub ahead of print].

Scientific research linking climate change to food systems, nutrition and nutrition-related health (FSNH) has proliferated, showing bidirectional and compounding dependencies that create cascading risks for human and planetary health. Within this proliferation, it is unclear which evidence to prioritise for action, and which research gaps, if filled, would catalyse most impact. We systematically searched for synthesis literature (i.e. reviews) related to FSNH, published after January 1, 2018. We screened and extracted characteristics of these reviews and mapped them in an interactive Evidence and Gap Map (EGM), supplemented by expert consultation. 844 synthesis reports met inclusion criteria (from 2,739 records) and were included in the EGM. The largest clusters of reports were those describing climate impacts on crop and animal source food (ASF) production, and emissions from such (86%). Comparatively few reports assessed climate change impacts on nutrition-related health, or food manufacture, processing, storage, and transportation. Reports focused on strategies of climate adaptation (40%), mitigation (29%), both (19%) or none (12%). Only one quarter of reports critically evaluated equity (25%), and fewer reports suggested that changes to equity and equitable practices would alter climate-FSNH dynamics (6%). The expert consultation mirrored the results of the EGM, and contextualised findings further. This novel map describes a wide research landscape linking climate change to FSNH. We identified four key research gaps, including 1) Research on whole food systems or post-harvest elements 2) Research evaluating relationships between climate change and nutrition-related health outcomes, especially among vulnerable populations; 3) Promising methods (and additional data required) that can a) identify inflection points or levers for intervention, b) incorporate complex dynamics and characterize trade-offs, c) be understood and applied in context-specific, localised ways for decision-making; and 4) Research undertaken through interdisciplinary collaborations that enables producing and translating evidence to action, especially those that inherently consider co-production and fairness.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Yang X, Zheng R, Wan Z, et al (2024)

Differences of soil carbon pools and crop growth across different typical agricultural fields in China: the role of geochemistry and climate change.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(24)01528-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Carbon storage and the aboveground biomass of farmland provide practical significance for understanding global changes and ensuring food production and quality. Based on soil carbon storage, aboveground biomass, climate, geochemistry, and other data from 19 farmland ecological stations in China, we analyzed the distribution characteristics of farmland carbon storage in topsoil and aboveground biomass. We notably revealed the response direction and degree of climate and geochemical factors to farmland carbon storage in topsoil and aboveground biomass. The results indicated that the average carbon stocks of farmland in different regions ranged from 0.28 to 7.91 kg m[-2], the average fresh weight of the aboveground biomass (FAB) ranged from 1370.64 to 5997.28 g m[-2], and the average dry weight of the aboveground biomass (DAB) ranged from 119.95 to 852.35 g m[-2]. The least angle regression (LARS) and the best subsection selection regression (BSS) showed that evapotranspiration and extreme low temperatures were significant climatic factors affecting carbon sequestration and aboveground biomass on long-time scales. The linear mixed-effects model (LMM) further showed that AN and AP had significant long-term effects on carbon sequestration and aboveground biomass (p<0.05), with AN having the highest contribution to SOC%, FAB, and DAB. The structural equation model (SEM) showed that carbon sequestration and aboveground biomass in agricultural fields were significantly positively correlated (p<0.05). Moreover, the climate had a less direct contribution to carbon sequestration and above-ground biomass compared to geochemistry (PCc<0.1

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Vangi E, Dalmonech D, Cioccolo E, et al (2024)

Stand age diversity (and more than climate change) affects forests' resilience and stability, although unevenly.

Journal of environmental management, 366:121822 pii:S0301-4797(24)01808-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Stand age significantly influences the functioning of forest ecosystems by shaping structural and physiological plant traits, affecting water and carbon budgets. Forest age distribution is determined by the interplay of tree mortality and regeneration, influenced by both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Unfortunately, human-driven alteration of tree age distribution presents an underexplored avenue for enhancing forest stability and resilience. In our study, we investigated how age impacts the stability and resilience of the forest carbon budget under both current and future climate conditions. We employed a state-of-the-science biogeochemical, biophysical, validated process-based model on historically managed forest stands, projecting their future as undisturbed systems, i.e., left at their natural evolution with no management interventions (i.e., forests are left to develop undisturbed). Such a model, forced by climate data from five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios and one baseline scenario to disentangle the effect of climate change, spanned several age classes as representative of the current European forests' context, for each stand. Our findings indicate that Net Primary Production (NPP) peaks in the young and middle-aged classes (16- to 50-year-old), aligning with longstanding ecological theories, regardless of the climate scenario. Under climate change, the beech forest exhibited an increase in NPP and maintained stability across all age classes, while resilience remained constant with rising atmospheric CO2 and temperatures. However, NPP declined under climate change scenarios for the Norway spruce and Scots pine sites. In these coniferous forests, stability and resilience were more influenced. These results underscore the necessity of accounting for age class diversity -lacking in most, if not all, the current Global Vegetation Models - for reliable and robust assessments of the impacts of climate change on future forests' stability and resilience capacity. We, therefore, advocate for customized management strategies that enhance the adaptability of forests to changing climatic conditions, taking into account the diverse responses of different species and age groups to climate.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Szalińska E, Jarosińska E, Orlińska-Woźniak P, et al (2024)

Total nitrogen and phosphorus loads in surface runoff from urban land use (city of Lublin) under climate change.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

An expansion of impervious surfaces in urban areas leads to increases of nutrient loads discharged with the surface runoff to receivers. A study of a different density of urban development impact on total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) loads from the city of Lublin (eastern Poland) with the use of the SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model was performed. To distinguish between areas with high and low density of urban development (UHD and ULD), a special analysis of hydrological parameters has been proposed. Moreover, to investigate the impact of climate change, four variant scenarios were taken into account, combining the RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 forecasts and the adopted time horizons (2026-2035 and 2046-2055). The results showed a much higher share of TN and TP from UHD compared to ULD (86%-32 022 kg/year and 89%-2574 kg/year, respectively). In addition, the variant scenarios showed that the forecasted increase in precipitation and temperature will result in increased loads of nutrients from UHD and ULD up to 30%. Furthermore, the current increase of inhabitant number, due to the Ukrainian war migration and the common tendency to convert agricultural land to residential areas, could contribute to further expansion of UHD and ULD areas and an additional increase of nutrient loads.

RevDate: 2024-07-17
CmpDate: 2024-07-17

Abouelhassan EM, GadAllah S, Kamel MS, et al (2024)

Molecular identification and morphological variations of Amblyomma lepidum imported to Egypt, with notes about its potential distribution under climate change.

Parasitology research, 123(7):276.

The tick Amblyomma lepidum is an ectoparasite of veterinary importance due to its role in transmitting livestock diseases in Africa, including heartwater. This study was conducted in 2023 to monitor Amblyomma spp. infestation in dromedary camels imported from Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan to Egypt. This study inspected 200 camels at the Giza governorate's camel market that had been imported from Somalia, 200 from Ethiopia, and 200 from Sudan for tick infestation. Specimens were identified using morphological characteristics and phylogenetic analyses of the 12S and 16S rRNA genes. Clusters were calculated using an unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic averages (UPGMA) dendrogram to group the specimens according to their morphometric characteristics. The morphometric analysis compared the body shape of ticks collected from different countries by analyzing dorsal features. Principal component analysis (PCA) and canonical variate analysis (CVA) were performed to obtain body shape variation among specimens from different countries. Results indicated that camels were infested by 57 males Amblyomma lepidum, and no female specimens were observed; among these specimens, one may have a morphological abnormality. The results suggest that A. lepidum specimens collected from camels imported to Egypt from African countries exhibit locally adapted morphology with variations among specimens, particularly variations in body size. This adaptation suggests minimal potential for genetic divergence. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict the areas in Africa with suitable climates for A. lepidum. The study confirmed that East African countries might have the most favorable climatic conditions for A. lepidum to thrive. Interestingly, the amount of rain during the wettest quarter (Bio16) had the strongest influence on the tick's potential distribution, with suitability decreasing sharply as rainfall increased. Future predictions indicate that the climatic habitat suitability for A. lepidum will decrease under changing climate conditions. However, historical, current, and future predictions indicate no suitable climatic habitats for A. lepidum in Egypt. These findings demand continuous surveillance of A. lepidum in camel populations and the development of targeted strategies to manage tick infestations and prevent the spread of heartwater disease.

RevDate: 2024-07-17
CmpDate: 2024-07-17

Hassol SJ (2023)

Changing the Language of Climate Change: Choosing words and stories that speak to people's priorities can build the will needed to implement climate solutions.

Scientific American, 328(2):64.

RevDate: 2024-07-18

Jackson RJ, H Frumkin (2021)

Needed: Climate Change and Health Institute.

Scientific American, 324(4):9.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Oreskes N (2024)

Gaslighting by the Gas Industry: A fossil-fuel executive blames the public for climate change.

Scientific American, 331(1):96.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Jiménez G (2024)

Whirlwind Conversation: Hurricanes boost social chatter about climate change.

Scientific American, 330(3):16.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Cosier S (2023)

Zeroing In: Supercomputer network could predict climate change effects down to the neighborhood.

Scientific American, 329(4):16.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Ritchie H (2024)

What We Learned from Acid Rain: By working together, the nations of the world can solve climate change.

Scientific American, 330(1):75.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Youmshajekian L (2024)

Quick Hits: Deciphering a scorched scroll from ancient Herculaneum, unlikely flavors in climate-change-affected wine, an undiscovered ore found in China, and more in this month's Quick Hits.

Scientific American, 330(1):19.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Fox D (2023)

A Stratospheric Gamble: The effects of global warming have gotten so bad, so fast that some scientists say it's time to start engineering the sky.

Scientific American, 329(3):30.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Matich P, Plumlee JD, Bubley W, et al (2024)

Long-term effects of climate change on juvenile bull shark migratory patterns.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Seasonal variability in environmental conditions is a strong determinant of animal migrations, but warming temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to alter this phenomenon with unknown consequences. We used a 40-year fishery-independent survey to assess how a changing climate has altered the migration timing, duration and first-year survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas). From 1982 to 2021, estuaries in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas) experienced a mean increase of 1.55°C in autumn water temperatures, and delays in autumn cold fronts by ca. 0.5 days per year. Bull shark migrations in more northern estuaries concomitantly changed, with departures 25-36 days later in 2021 than in 1982. Later, migrations resulted in reduced overwintering durations by up to 81 days, and the relative abundance of post-overwintering age 0-1 sharks increased by >50% during the 40-year study period. Yet, reductions in prey availability were the most influential factor delaying migrations. Juvenile sharks remained in natal estuaries longer when prey were less abundant. Long-term declines in prey reportedly occurred due to reduced spawning success associated with climate change based on published reports. Consequently, warming waters likely enabled and indirectly caused the observed changes in shark migratory behaviour. As water temperatures continue to rise, bull sharks in the north-western Gulf of Mexico could forgo their winter migrations in the next 50-100 years based on current trends and physiological limits, thereby altering their ecological roles in estuarine ecosystems and recruitment into the adult population. It is unclear if estuarine food webs will be able to support changing residency patterns as climate change affects the spawning success of forage species. We expect these trends are not unique to the western Gulf of Mexico or bull sharks, and migratory patterns of predators in subtropical latitudes are similarly changing at a global scale.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Jones EM, Venkatachalam AM, NL Ifejika (2024)

Weathering the storm: Effect of climate change on acute stroke care and stroke rehabilitation.

PM & R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has deleterious effects on stroke recovery, disproportionately affecting populations with increased stroke incidence. These effects start prior to the acute care hospitalization, precipitated by environmental etiologies and are sustained throughout the life course of stroke survivors. Health care practitioners play a critical role in identifying these concerns and mitigating their impact through effective strategies at the patient level, interventions at the community level, and advocacy at the state and federal level. As the experts on improvement in function, quality of life, and the mitigation of disability, physiatrists have the opportunity to lead efforts in this space for stroke survivors and their caregivers.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Odebiri O, Mutanga O, Odindi J, et al (2024)

Mapping Sub-surface Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in South Africa's Arid and Semi-Arid Landscapes: Implications for Land Management and Climate Change Mitigation.

Geoderma regional, 37:e00817.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are critical for land management strategies and climate change mitigation. However, understanding SOC distribution in South Africa's arid and semi-arid regions remains a challenge due to data limitations, and the complex spatial and sub-surface variability in SOC stocks driven by desertification and land degradation. Thus, to support soil and land-use management practices as well as advance climate change mitigation efforts, there is an urgent need to provide more precise SOC stock estimates within South Africa's arid and semi-arid regions. Hence, this study adopted remote-sensing approaches to determine the spatial sub-surface distribution of SOC stocks and the influence of environmental co-variates at four soil depths (i.e., 0-30 cm, 30-60 cm, 60-100 cm, and 100-200 cm). Using two regression-based algorithms, i.e., Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Random Forest (RF), the study found the former (RMSE values ranging from 7.12 t/ha to 29.55 t/ha) to be a superior predictor of SOC in comparison to the latter (RMSE values ranging from 7.36 t/ha to 31.10 t/ha). Nonetheless, both models achieved satisfactory accuracy (R[2] ≥ 0.52) for regional-scale SOC predictions at the studied soil depths. Thereafter, using a variable importance analysis, the study demonstrated the influence of climatic variables like rainfall and temperature on SOC stocks at different depths. Furthermore, the study revealed significant spatial variability in SOC stocks, and an increase in SOC stocks with soil depth. Overall, these findings enhance the understanding of SOC dynamics in South Africa's arid and semi-arid landscapes and emphasizes the importance of considering site specific topo-climatic characteristics for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation. Furthermore, the study offers valuable insights into sub-surface SOC distribution, crucial for informing carbon sequestration strategies, guiding land management practices, and informing environmental policies within arid and semi-arid environments.

RevDate: 2024-07-16
CmpDate: 2024-07-17

Fekih-Romdhane F, Malaeb D, Yakın E, et al (2024)

Translation and validation to the Arabic language version of the climate change anxiety scale (CCAS).

BMC psychiatry, 24(1):507.

BACKGROUND: The Arab world is one of the global regions the most directly concerned by, and suffering from climate change's adverse consequences. As such, there appears to be a strong need for an understanding of how Arab people may emotionally respond to climate change. Providing valid and reliable measures of climate change anxiety (CCA) can help gain a clear overview of the situation in Arab countries, and allow to intervene timely and effectively to mitigate any adverse effects on Arab people's mental health. To this end, the present study sought to validate the Arabic language version of the Climate Change Anxiety Scale (CCAS) in a sample of native Arabic-speaking adults from the general population of Lebanon.

METHODS: This study adopted a cross-sectional approach and enrolled 763 adults between July and September 2023.

RESULTS: A confirmatory analysis of the one-factor model showed poor fit indices as follows: CFI = 0.90, GFI = 0.83, SRMR = 0.048 and RMSEA 0.131 [90% CI 0.123, 0.138). The two-factor model showed a satisfactory fit with a high CFI of and a GFI of 0.91 and a SRMR of 0.04 and RMSEA of 0.05 [90% CI 0.04, 0.06]. Both McDonald's omega and Cronbach alpha values were high for the overall CCAS score (α = 0.96 and ω = 0.96) in the whole sample. Configural, metric and scalar invariance across gender was demonstrated. No significant difference was found between males and females in terms of total CCAS scores (24.53 ± 10.59 vs. 26.03 ± 11.17, t(761) = -1.82, p = .069). Higher CCA, functional impairment and cognitive impairment scores were significantly associated with higher depression, anxiety and stress.

CONCLUSION: The reliability and validity of the CCAS in its Arabic version were proven. The availability of this self-report measure could offer a chance to assess CCA among Adults speaking Arabic, and to spread its future use for screening and research purposes.

RevDate: 2024-07-16
CmpDate: 2024-07-16

Braga A, M Laurini (2024)

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects across Brazilian biomes.

Scientific reports, 14(1):16414.

We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within a spatio-temporal model. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil-a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.

RevDate: 2024-07-16
CmpDate: 2024-07-16

Guo Y, Zhang S, Ren L, et al (2024)

Prediction of Chinese suitable habitats of Panax notoginseng under climate change based on MaxEnt and chemometric methods.

Scientific reports, 14(1):16434.

Notoginseng saponin R1; ginsenosides Rg1, Re, Rb1, and Rd; the sum of the five saponins; and underground-part fresh weight (UPFW) of single plants were used as quality evaluation indices for Panax notoginseng (Burk.) F. H. Chen (P. notoginseng). Comprehensive evaluation of P. notoginseng samples from 30 production areas was performed using that MaxEnt model. Spatial pattern changes in suitable P. notoginseng habitats were predicted for current and future periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) using SSP126 and SSP585 models. The results revealed that temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were important environmental variables. Suitable habitats were located mainly in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan Provinces. The distribution core of P. notoginseng is predicted to shift southeast in the future. The saponin content decreased from the southeast to the northwest of Yunnan Province, which was contrary to the UPFW trend. This study provides the necessary information for the protection and sustainable utilization of P. notoginseng resources, and a theoretical reference for its application in the quality evaluation of Chinese medicinal products.

RevDate: 2024-07-16
CmpDate: 2024-07-16

Rehman SU, Watson E, LM Noble (2024)

EACH: International Association for Communication in Healthcare statement on climate change, health and vulnerability: enhancing resilience through social and behavior change communication.

Journal of communication in healthcare, 17(2):197-200.

RevDate: 2024-07-17
CmpDate: 2024-07-15

Kleinteich J, Frassl MA, Schulz M, et al (2024)

Climate change triggered planktonic cyanobacterial blooms in a regulated temperate river.

Scientific reports, 14(1):16298.

Harmful algae blooms are a rare phenomenon in rivers but seem to increase with climate change and river regulation. To understand the controlling factors of cyanobacteria blooms that occurred between 2017 and 2020 over long stretches (> 250 km) of the regulated Moselle River in Western Europe, we measured physico-chemical and biological variables and compared those with a long-term dataset (1997-2016). Cyanobacteria (Microcystis) dominated the phytoplankton community in the late summers of 2017-2020 (cyano-period) with up to 110 µg Chlorophyll-a/L, but had not been observed in the river in the previous 20 years. From June to September, the average discharge in the Moselle was reduced to 69-76% and water temperature was 0.9-1.8 °C higher compared to the reference period. Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silica (Si) declined since 1997, albeit total nutrient concentrations remained above limiting conditions in the study period. Cyanobacterial blooms correlated best with low discharge, high water temperature and low nitrate. We conclude that the recent cyanobacteria blooms have been caused by dry and warm weather resulting in low flow conditions and warm water temperature in the regulated Moselle. Under current climate projections, the Moselle may serve as an example for the future of regulated temperate rivers.

RevDate: 2024-07-17
CmpDate: 2024-07-15

Meyer AS, Pigot AL, Merow C, et al (2024)

Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity.

Nature communications, 15(1):5836.

Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure (when temperature exceeds realised species' thermal limits) and opportunity (when temperature at a previously unsuitable site becomes suitable) for 21,696 marine species globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected to arise earlier and accumulate gradually, especially in temperate and polar regions. Thermal exposure increases later and occurs more abruptly, mainly in the tropics. Assemblages tend to show either high exposure or high opportunity, but seldom both. Strong emissions reductions reduce exposure around 100-fold whereas reductions in opportunities are halved. Globally, opportunities are projected to emerge faster than exposure until mid-century when exposure increases more rapidly under a high emissions scenario. Moreover, across emissions and dispersal scenarios, 76%-97% of opportunities are projected to persist until 2100. These results indicate thermal opportunities could be a major source of marine biodiversity change, especially in the near- and mid-term. Our work provides a framework for predicting where and when thermal changes will occur to guide monitoring efforts.

RevDate: 2024-07-15
CmpDate: 2024-07-15

Domingo KN, Gabaldon KL, Hussari MN, et al (2024)

Impact of climate change on paediatric respiratory health: pollutants and aeroallergens.

European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society, 33(172): pii:33/172/230249.

Paediatric populations are particularly vulnerable to respiratory diseases caused and exacerbated by aeroallergens, pollutants and infectious agents. Worsening climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of pollutants and aeroallergens while amplifying disease severity and causing disproportionate effects in under-resourced areas. The purpose of this narrative review is to summarise the role of anthropogenic climate change in the literature examining the future impact of aeroallergens, pollutants and infectious agents on paediatric respiratory diseases with a focus on equitable disease mitigation. The aeroallergens selected for discussion include pollen, dust mites and mould as these are prevalent triggers of paediatric asthma worldwide. Human rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus are key viruses interacting with climate change and pollution and are primary causal agents of viral respiratory disease. Within this review, we present the propensity for aeroallergens, climate change and pollution to synergistically exacerbate paediatric respiratory disease and outline measures that can ameliorate the expected increase in morbidity and severity of disease through a health equity lens. We support shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy worldwide, across sectors, as a primary means of reducing increases in morbidity.

RevDate: 2024-07-15

Gizaw Z, Salubi E, Pietroniro A, et al (2024)

Impacts of climate change on water-related mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions: A systematic review of literature and meta-analysis.

Acta tropica pii:S0001-706X(24)00206-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Mosquito-borne diseases are a known tropical phenomenon. This review was conducted to assesses the mechanisms through which climate change impacts mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions. Articles were searched from PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase databases. Identification criteria were scope (climate change and mosquito-borne diseases), region (temperate), article type (peer-reviewed), publication language (English), and publication years (since 2015). The WWH (who, what, how) framework was applied to develop the research question and thematic analyses identified the mechanisms through which climate change affects mosquito-borne diseases. While temperature ranges for disease transmission vary per mosquito species, all are viable for temperate regions, particularly given projected temperature increases. Zika, chikungunya, and dengue transmission occurs between 18 - 34°C (peak at 26 - 29°C). West Nile virus establishment occurs at monthly average temperatures between 14 - 34.3°C (peak at 23.7 - 25°C). Malaria establishment occurs when the consecutive average daily temperatures are above 16°C until the sum is above 210°C. The identified mechanisms through which climate change affects the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions include: changes in the development of vectors and pathogens; changes in mosquito habitats; extended transmission seasons; changes in geographic spread; changes in abundance and behaviours of hosts; reduced abundance of mosquito predators; interruptions to control operations; and influence on other non-climate factors. Process and stochastic approaches as well as dynamic and spatial models exist to predict mosquito population dynamics, disease transmission, and climate favorability. Future projections based on the observed relations between climate factors and mosquito-borne diseases suggest that mosquito-borne disease expansion is likely to occur in temperate regions due to climate change. While West Nile virus is already established in some temperate regions, Zika, dengue, chikungunya, and malaria are also likely to become established over time. Moving forward, more research is required to model future risks by incorporating climate, environmental, sociodemographic, and mosquito-related factors under changing climates.

RevDate: 2024-07-17
CmpDate: 2024-07-17

Parshley L (2023)

Blame Game: How scientists got confident attributing disastrous weather to global warming.

Scientific American, 328(6):44.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Oreskes N (2023)

Social Security and Science: Attacks on the program rest on false "facts" similar to ones used against climate change action.

Scientific American, 328(5):86.

RevDate: 2024-07-17
CmpDate: 2024-07-17

Helmuth L (2023)

Mates and Strangers: Love in the brain, how dreams predict disease and better words for climate change in this month's issue of Scientific American.

Scientific American, 328(2):4.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Haaland D (2023)

Satellites Can Help Us Fight Climate Change: Landsat data will shape the Biden administration's climate change plans.

Scientific American, 328(1):9.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Montañez A, A Thompson (2022)

The Cost of Climate Change: How each nation's greenhouse gas emissions have cost others.

Scientific American, 327(5):88.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Goodkin N, J Pullen (2022)

Let Oceans Breathe: Marine oxygen levels are the next great casualty of climate change.

Scientific American, 326(4):11.

RevDate: 2024-07-17

Thompson A (2022)

Generational Climate Change: Young people will suffer the most from warming temperatures.

Scientific American, 326(2):76.

RevDate: 2024-07-15

Shahvandi MK, Adhikari S, Dumberry M, et al (2024)

The increasingly dominant role of climate change on length of day variations.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 121(30):e2406930121.

The melting of ice sheets and global glaciers results in sea-level rise, a pole-to-equator mass transport increasing Earth's oblateness and resulting in an increase in the length of day (LOD). Here, we use observations and reconstructions of mass variations at the Earth's surface since 1900 to show that the climate-induced LOD trend hovered between 0.3 and 1.0 ms/cy in the 20th century, but has accelerated to 1.33 [Formula: see text] 0.03 ms/cy since 2000. We further show that surface mass transport fully explains the accelerating trend in the Earth oblateness observed in the past three decades. We derive an independent measure of the decreasing LOD trend induced by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) of [Formula: see text]0.80 [Formula: see text] 0.10 ms/cy, which provides a constraint for the mantle viscosity. The sum of this GIA rate and lunar tidal friction fully explains the secular LOD trend that is inferred from the eclipse record in the past three millennia prior to the onset of contemporary climate change. Projections of future climate warming under high emission scenarios suggest that the climate-induced LOD rate may reach 2.62 [Formula: see text] 0.79 ms/cy by 2100, overtaking lunar tidal friction as the single most important contributor to the long-term LOD variations.

RevDate: 2024-07-15
CmpDate: 2024-07-15

McNellie JP, May WE, Rieseberg LH, et al (2024)

Association studies of salinity tolerance in sunflower provide robust breeding and selection strategies under climate change.

TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik, 137(8):184.

Phytotoxic soil salinity is a global problem, and in the northern Great Plains and western Canada, salt accumulates on the surface of marine sediment soils with high water tables under annual crop cover, particularly near wetlands. Crop production can overcome saline-affected soils using crop species and cultivars with salinity tolerance along with changes in management practices. This research seeks to improve our understanding of sunflower (Helianthus annuus) genetic tolerance to high salinity soils. Genome-wide association was conducted using the Sunflower Association Mapping panel grown for two years in naturally occurring saline soils (2016 and 2017, near Indian Head, Saskatchewan, Canada), and six phenotypes were measured: days to bloom, height, leaf area, leaf mass, oil percentage, and yield. Plot level soil salinity was determined by grid sampling of soil followed by kriging. Three estimates of sunflower performance were calculated: (1) under low soil salinity (< 4 dS/m), (2) under high soil salinity (> 4 dS/m), and (3) plasticity (regression coefficient between phenotype and soil salinity). Fourteen loci were significant, with one instance of co-localization between a leaf area and a leaf mass locus. Some genomic regions identified as significant in this study were also significant in a recent greenhouse salinity experiment using the same panel. Also, some candidate genes underlying significant QTL have been identified in other plant species as having a role in salinity response. This research identifies alleles for cultivar improvement and for genetic studies to further elucidate salinity tolerance pathways.

RevDate: 2024-07-15
CmpDate: 2024-07-15

Bhatt P, Padhi A, Agarwal A, et al (2024)

The impact of climate change on viral transmission: Viral persistence and reactivation.

Journal of medical virology, 96(7):e29813.

RevDate: 2024-07-14

Zhang J, RG Cong (2024)

Managing ecosystem services in oleaginous forests for bioenergy provision and climate change mitigation.

Journal of environmental management, 366:121790 pii:S0301-4797(24)01776-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Oleaginous forests provide diverse ecosystem services, including timber, seed yield (a vital feedstock for biodiesel production), and substantial carbon savings. These carbon savings encompass carbon sequestration related to timber growth and carbon savings resulting from substituting fossil fuel with biodiesel. However, oleaginous forests are vulnerable to seed wasp attacks (disservice), which significantly threaten both seed yield and carbon savings. Using an integrated ecological-economic model that includes Faustmann's Land Expectation Value model and a pest damage control model, we aim to understand the intricate relationship among multiple ecosystem services and disservices of oleaginous forests. The results reveal four distinct phases contingent on varying pesticide application rates: the pesticide under-use phase, substitution phase, complementary phase, and over-use phase. Notably, a potential avenue to minimize pest damage is identified during the complementary phase by reducing the optimal rotation age at the expense of decreased carbon sequestration and bioenergy provision, posing a challenge to climate change mitigation. These findings have implications for formulating policies to manage conflicting ecosystem services of energy forests, offering valuable insights into the intersection of sustainable forest management and climate policy.

RevDate: 2024-07-13
CmpDate: 2024-07-13

McNamara M, Barondeau J, J Brown (2024)

Mental Health, Climate Change, and Bodily Autonomy: An Analysis of Adolescent Health Policy in the Post-Pandemic Climate.

Pediatric clinics of North America, 71(4):729-744.

The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the vulnerability of adolescents and young adults (AYAs) who face economic disadvantage, depend on social safety net resources, have politically targeted identities, are geopolitically displaced, and/or are racially or ethnically marginalized. A rapid change in social safety net policies has impacts that reverberate throughout interrelated domains of AYA health, especially for vulnerable AYAs. The authors analyze policy-related changes in mental health, climate change, and bodily autonomy to offer a paradigm for an equitable path forward.

RevDate: 2024-07-13

Fabri-Ruiz S, Berdalet E, Ulses C, et al (2024)

Harmful Ostreopsis cf. ovata blooms could extend in time span with climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)04875-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Fast environmental changes and high coastal human pressures and impacts threaten the Mediterranean Sea. Over the last decade, recurrent blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have been recorded in many Mediterranean beaches. These microalgae produce toxins that affect marine organisms and human health. Understanding the environmental conditions that influence the appearance and magnitude of O. cf. ovata blooms, as well as how climate change will modify its future distribution and dynamics, is crucial for predicting and managing their effects. This study investigates whether the spatio-temporal distribution of this microalga and the frequency of its blooms could be altered in future climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Western basin. For the first time, an ecological habitat model (EHM) is forced by physico-chemical climate change simulations at high-resolution, under the strong greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP8.5). It allows to characterize how O. cf. ovata may respond to projected conditions and how its distribution could shift over a wide spatial scale, in this plausible future. Before being applied to the EHM, future climate simulations are further refined by using a statistical adaptation method (Cumulative Distribution Function transform) to improve the predictions robustness. Temperature (optimum 23-26 °C), high salinity (>38 psu) and high inorganic nutrient concentrations (nitrate >0.25 mmol N·m[-3] and phosphate >0.035 mmol P·m[-3]) drive O. cf. ovata abundances. High spatial disparities in future abundances are observed. Namely, O. cf. ovata abundances could increase on the Mediterranean coasts of France, Spain and the Adriatic Sea while a decrease is expected in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The bloom period could be extended, starting earlier and continuing later in the year. From a methodological point of view, this study highlights best practices of EHMs in the context of climate change to identify sensitive areas for current and future harmful algal blooms.

RevDate: 2024-07-13

Mozumder MK (2024)

Pre-migration decision-making support for people affected by climate change.

RevDate: 2024-07-13

Ahmed R, Chen XH, Hoang YH, et al (2024)

Climate change effects and their implications for the financial markets: Evidence from the United Kingdom.

Journal of environmental management, 366:121782 pii:S0301-4797(24)01768-7 [Epub ahead of print].

This study aims to examine how the climate affects the behaviour of the stock market. To achieve this, we have drawn on daily data from Jan 2005 to Jan 31, 2023 and several environmental factors (e.g., temperature, humidity, cloud cover and visibility) to account for extreme weather conditions using the 21-day moving average and its standard deviation. The empirical analysis has revealed three key findings regarding the impact of weather on the stock market's behaviour. First, various forms of extreme weather conditions consistently lead to influence stock behaviour. Second, results provide valuable insights into market behaviour and help investors to make more informed investment decisions. Third, the weather conditions have new information about the climate risk and investors should react to it swiftly in light of our findings. The saliency theory can help reconcile the theoretical conflicts between the real options and risk-shifting theories when it comes to investing in uncertain and extreme climate conditions.

RevDate: 2024-07-15

Soare R, Dinu M, Babeanu C, et al (2024)

Quantitative and Qualitative Production of Species Cucumis metuliferus and the Potential for Adaptation in the Context of Current Climate Change.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 13(13):.

Cucumis metuliferus E. Meyer ex Naudin belongs to the family Cucurbitaceae. It is an annual vegetable species known as horned melon or kiwano. Fruits are recommended for the daily diet because they provide vitamins, minerals, and phytochemicals to alleviate malnutrition and improve human health. In this study, kiwano was cultivated in the climatic conditions of Southwestern Romania, which is characterized by warm summers, lower precipitation, and high temperatures, ensuring optimal conditions for growth and development. The fruits were harvested at three stages of consumption: immature stage (green), intermediate stage (white-yellow) or the mature stage (yellow-orange). They were also subjected to analysis on the productive yield and physical-chemical properties. The results showed that the number of fruits ranged from 13.9 to 15.3 fruits/plant, and their average weight had values from 204 g to 234 g, depending on the harvest stage. The results obtained for bioactive compounds and antioxidant activity indicated significant differences (p ≤ 0.05), depending on the harvesting stage. The highest values for the antioxidant capacity (140.90 μM TE/100g DPPH) and total polyphenols (48.78 TPC mg/100 g) were recorded in the immature fruit phase, as well as for the carbohydrate content (3.56%), total protein (1.98%), ascorbic acid (4.3 mg/100 g f.w.), and carotene (0.98 mg/100 g) in the mature fruit phase. These results may stimulate interest in the introduction of this species as a niche crop and for consumption as a source of natural antioxidants for the prevention of diseases due to oxidative stress.

RevDate: 2024-07-15

Fan W, Y Luo (2024)

Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Suitable Habitats and Ecological Niche for Trollius Wildflowers in Ili River Valley, Tacheng, Altay Prefecture.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 13(13):.

Xinjiang in China is distinguished by its distinctive regional landscape and high ecological sensitivity. Trollius wildflowers represent a unique and iconic element of the mountain flower landscape in Xinjiang. However, their populations are predominantly distributed in mountainous areas, making them susceptible to climate change. Despite this, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of suitable habitats and ecological niche differentiation for Trollius wildflowers have rarely been quantified. Consequently, simulations were conducted using the R-optimized MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitat distribution of Trollius wildflowers. This was based on the occurrence data and environmental variables for the four species of Trollius (T. altaicus, T. asiaticus, T. dschungaricus, and T. lilacinus) that exist in the study area. The simulation was conducted over a period of time, beginning with the past glacial period and extending to the present, and then to the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under multiple scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The simulation of suitable habitats enabled the measurement of the ecological niche breadth and differentiation. The results demonstrate that the model predictions are precisely accurate, with AUC values exceeding 0.9. Annual mean temperature (Bio1), isothermality (Bio3), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) are the dominant climate variables, in addition to vegetation, elevation, and soil factors. The proportion of suitable habitats for Trollius wildflowers varies considerably over time, from 0.14% to 70.97%. The majority of habitat loss or gain occurs at the edges of mountains, while stable habitats are concentrated in the core of the mountains. The gravity center of suitable habitats also shifts with spatial transfer, with the shifts mainly occurring in a northeasterly-southwesterly direction. The SSP1-2.6 scenario results in the sustained maintenance of habitats, whereas the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios present challenges to the conservation of habitats. The threshold of ecological niche breadth for Trollius wildflowers is subject to fluctuations, while the ecological niche differentiation also varies. The study aims to examine the evolution of the habitat and ecological niche of Trollius wildflowers in Xinjiang under climate change. The findings will provide theoretical support for delineating the conservation area, clarify the scope of mountain flower tourism development and protection of mountain flower resources, and promote the sustainable development of ecotourism and effective utilization of territorial space in Xinjiang.

RevDate: 2024-07-15

Yang X, Li X, Cui J, et al (2024)

Response to Climate Change and GAP Analysis of Thuja koraiensis Nakai.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 13(13):.

Due to global warming and increased human activity, the wild population of Thuja koraiensis Nakai (T. koraiensis) has dropped, placing it in danger. An understanding of the response of T. koraiensis to climate change and the determination of priority conservation areas are tremendously critical for proper conservation. Using sixty-nine T. koraiensis distribution points and seven environmental factors, the Maxent model was used to predict potentially suitable areas and spatial variation patterns of T. koraiensis and the Marxan conservation planning model was used to evaluate conservation gap areas. Research shows that the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of potentially suitable areas for T. koraiensis included elevation, precipitation of the driest month, isothermality and precipitation of the wettest quarter. Under the current climatic conditions, highly suitable areas for T. koraiensis are mainly distributed in the Changbai Mountains within Samjiyon County and Baishan City, the Hamgyong Mountains within the western part of Hamgyong-Bukto Province, and the T'aeback-Sanmaek Mountains within Gangwon-do, Kumgangsan Special Administrative Region and Kangwon-do. Under future climate conditions, suitable areas for T. koraiensis show a decreasing trend, and the suitable area will be reduced to higher elevations, and the Hamgyong Mountains may become a refuge. Based on GAP analysis, 69.69% of the priority conservation areas of T. koraiensis are located outside of the nature reserve, and these conservation gap areas are primarily in the southern part of the Changbai Mountains and Kangwon-do.

RevDate: 2024-07-13

Zhang L, Jiang B, Meng Y, et al (2024)

The Influence of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hibiscus mutabilis in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Prediction.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 13(13):.

Our study utilized 374 geographical distribution records of H. mutabilis and 19 bioclimatic factors, employing the MaxEnt model and the Geographic Information System (ArcGIS). The key environmental variables influencing the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis were analyzed through the comprehensive contribution rate, permutation importance, and Pearson correlation coefficient. Based on this analysis, the contemporary and future suitable distribution areas and their extents were predicted. The results indicate that the key limiting factor affecting the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis is the precipitation of the driest month (bio14), with secondary factors being annual precipitation (bio12), annual mean temperature (bio1), and annual temperature range (bio7). Under contemporary climate conditions, the total suitable area for H. mutabilis is approximately 2,076,600 km[2], primarily concentrated in the tropical and subtropical regions of southeastern China. Under low-to-medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5), the total suitable area of H. mutabilis shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing compared to the current scenario. In contrast, under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), it exhibits a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The spatial pattern changes indicate that the retention rate of suitable areas for H. mutabilis ranges from 95.28% to 99.28%, with the distribution centers primarily located in Hunan and Guizhou provinces, showing an overall migration trend towards the west and north. These findings suggest that H. mutabilis possesses a certain level of adaptability to climate change. However, it is crucial to consider regional drought and sudden drought events in practical cultivation and introduction processes. The results of our study provide a scientific basis for the rational cultivation management, conservation, and utilization of germplasm resources of H. mutabilis.

RevDate: 2024-07-13

Popović T, Ćurčić NB, Đurđić S, et al (2024)

An Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of the Glacial Relict Woodpecker Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus.

Animals : an open access journal from MDPI, 14(13): pii:ani14131879.

The Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus is a rare and endangered woodpecker on the Balkan Peninsula. Despite being widely distributed in Northern Europe, its distribution on the Balkan Peninsula is limited to high-altitude forest habitats, where it represents a glacial relict. Assessing the climate change impacts on its distribution can be crucial for improving the conservation and future survival of this specialist species on the Balkan Peninsula. We used species distribution modelling (SDM) to identify its potential distribution in the past (last interglacial and last glacial maximum), present, and future (2050 and 2070). Our results indicate that this species had the greatest distribution during the last glacial maximum, after which its distribution contracted to areas where suitable environment persisted (high altitudes). The largest territory of the Balkan Peninsula has an unsuitable environment for the species to inhabit, while highly suitable habitats have the smallest share in the total area of suitable habitats. All future models show a decrease in the area of suitable habitats compared with the current period, indicating that global warming has a negative effect on the distribution of the species. We recommend that conservation activities must be of greater extent to ensure the species' survival in the Balkans.

RevDate: 2024-07-12
CmpDate: 2024-07-12

Arnot G, Thomas S, Pitt H, et al (2024)

"Older people will die of old age. I'll die of climate change": engaging children and young people in climate decision making for public health.

BMC public health, 24(1):1869.

BACKGROUND: The climate crisis is a significant risk to the health and wellbeing of children, young people, and future generations. While there are calls for children and young people's engagement in climate decision making, current power structures limit their participation. This paper aimed to understand children's perspectives about the impact of the climate crisis on their futures, their ability to influence climate decisions, and strategies and mechanisms to facilitate their greater engagement in decisions made about the climate crisis.

METHODS: Online in-depth interviews were conducted with n = 28 children (aged 12-16 years) across Australia. Photo elicitation techniques were used to prompt discussion about how the climate crisis impacted their futures, their ability to influence climate decisions, and strategies and mechanisms to engage them in climate decision making. A reflexive approach to thematic analysis was used to construct three themes from data. Images were analysed for ascribed meanings.

RESULTS: First, participants stated that they and future generations will inherit the climate crisis from older generations, specifically decision makers. Second, they described a need to address a range of age-related barriers that limit children and young people's engagement in climate decision making, including perceptions about their capabilities. Finally, they discussed strategies and mechanisms to embed children and young people's perspectives within climate decision making, including at civic and political levels.

CONCLUSIONS: Children and young people have the right to be involved in decisions made about the climate crisis which significantly impact their futures, including their health and wellbeing. They argue for structural changes to embed their views in climate decision making, and describe a range of engagement strategies and mechanisms to structure their perspectives and knowledge with decision making processes. Furthermore, genuine involvement of children and young people in climate discussions must avoid youthwashing and tokenistic participation. The public health community can help address barriers to youth participation in climate action and should actively engage and collaborate with children and young people to facilitate their political and democratic influence over the climate crisis. This involves making room and creating an accessible seat at the decision making table to ensure their perspectives are embedded in climate decisions.

RevDate: 2024-07-12

Rathnayake H, T Mizunoya (2024)

Assessing the global warming potential impact of organic fertilizer strategies in rice cultivation in Sri Lanka.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Rice is the staple food in Sri Lanka, and over 15% of the national land is allocated for rice cultivation. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from rice fields account for 10% of national GHG emissions. The country has committed to reducing its emissions by 14.5% between 2010 and 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2060. In 2021, the country banned agro-fertilizer imports and opted for organic fertilizers, leading to a notable decrease in production and posing challenges to food security. However, the impact of adopting compost fertilizers alone remains unexplored. This study evaluated the global warming impact of two organic fertilizer strategies: switching to compost fertilizer instead of urea and applying rice straw compost instead of retaining crop residue. We applied the Denitrification and Decomposition model (DNDC 95) to rice field management data from Sri Lanka's Mahaweli H agricultural region. Simulations suggest that both strategies would increase the global warming potential of rice fields, mainly owing to elevated N2O emissions. This outweighs the mitigation benefits of avoiding crop residue retention and adding organic carbon through compost. Overall, our results point to the potential risk of shifting exclusively to compost-based fertilizers.

RevDate: 2024-07-12

Krämer K (2024)

Daily briefing: Why climate change is making flights rougher.

RevDate: 2024-07-12
CmpDate: 2024-07-12

Taniushkina D, Lukashevich A, Shevchenko V, et al (2024)

Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia.

Scientific reports, 14(1):16150.

Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.

RevDate: 2024-07-12

Wu S, Zhou X, Reyns J, et al (2024)

Climate change and urban sprawl: Unveiling the escalating flood risks in river deltas with a deep dive into the GBM river delta.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)04852-6 [Epub ahead of print].

River deltas, such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, are highly vulnerable to flooding, exacerbated by intense human activities and rapid urban growth. This study explores the evolution of urban flood risks in the GBM delta under the combined impacts of climate change and urban expansion. Unlike traditional assessments that focus on a single flood source, we consider multiple sources-coastal, fluvial, and pluvial. Our findings indicate that future urban expansion will significantly increase flood exposure, with a substantial rise in flood risk from all sources by the end of this century. Climate change is the main driver of increased coastal flood risks, while urban growth primarily amplifies fluvial, and pluvial flood risks. This highlights the urgent need for adaptive urban planning strategies to mitigate future flooding and support sustainable urban development. The extreme high emissions future scenario (SSP5-8.5) shows the largest urban growth and consequent flood risk, emphasizing the necessity for preemptive measures to mitigate future urban flooding. Our study provides crucial insights into flood risk dynamics in delta environments, aiding policymakers and planners in developing resilience strategies against escalating flood threats.

RevDate: 2024-07-12

Wang L, Huang Z, Gan B, et al (2024)

Climate change impacts on magnitude and frequency of urban floods under scenario and model uncertainties.

Journal of environmental management, 366:121679 pii:S0301-4797(24)01665-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Many studies have confirmed that climate change leads to frequent urban flooding, which can lead to significant socioeconomic repercussions. However, most existing studies have not evaluated the impacts of climate change on urban flood from both event-scale and annual-scale dimensions. In addition, there are only few studies that simultaneously consider scenario and model uncertainties of climate change, and combine flood risk assessment and uncertainty analysis results to provide practical suggestions for urban drainage system management. This study uses the statistical downscaling method to calculate the design rainfall under ten rainfall return periods of four climate models and three climate change scenarios in 2040s, 2060s, and 2080s in various prefecture-level cities in China. The four climate models are HadGEM2- ES, MPI-ESM-MR, NorESM1-M and FGOALS-g2 models and the three climate change scenarios are constructed by different representative concentration pathways (RCP), namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. On this basis, relying on the generated drainage systems using geographical information and other data, event-scale and annual-scale precipitation are combined to calculate the change ratio of annual flood volume expectation in prefecture-level cities in each future year compared with the current situation. Furthermore, the study evaluates scenario and model uncertainties of climate change, and then comprehensively integrates the flood risk and its uncertainties to provides suggestions for urban drainage system management.

RevDate: 2024-07-12

PLOS ONE Staff (2024)

Correction: Vegetation and climate change at the southern margin of the Neo-Tethys during the Cenomanian (Late Cretaceous): Evidence from Egypt.

PloS one, 19(7):e0307337.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281008.].

RevDate: 2024-07-12
CmpDate: 2024-07-12

Saraf PN, Srivastava J, Munoz F, et al (2024)

How can dry tropical forests respond to climate change? Predictions for key Non-Timber Forest Product species show different trends in India.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 196(8):727.

The present study provides an assessment of the distribution of key Non-Timber Forest Product species in India, namely Aegle marmelos (L.) Correa, Buchanania lanzan Spreng., Madhuca longifolia (J. Koenig ex L.) J. F. Macbr., Phyllanthus emblica L. and Terminalia bellirica (Gaertn.) Roxb. The suitable habitat was analyzed under current climate scenarios and subsequently, the future distribution (2050s and 2070s) was mapped under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, along with the past distribution (mid-Holocene, ~ 6000 cal year BP) using the MaxEnt species distribution model. The distribution of all species is primarily driven by key bioclimatic factors, including annual precipitation (Bio_12), mean annual temperature (Bio_1), isothermality (Bio_3) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio_19). The results indicate that the present distribution of these species is mainly centred in the Western Ghats regions, Central Highlands, North-eastern India and Siwalik hills. The current study suggests that under the future climate change, the suitable habitat for A. marmelos and T. bellirica is expected to increase while for B. lanzan, M. longifolia and P. emblica, it is projected to decline. A. marmelos and T. bellirica are anticipated to exhibit resilience to future climate changes and are expected to be minimally affected, while B. lanzan, M. longifolia and P. emblica are highly sensitive to high temperature and alteration in rainfall pattern expected under future climate changes. The projections of habitat suitability areas can be used as a valuable foundation for developing conservation and restoration strategies aimed at alleviating the climate change impacts on NTFP species.

RevDate: 2024-07-12
CmpDate: 2024-07-12

Krueger J, Long J, JC Bikomeye (2024)

Climate Change and Health: Public Health and Legal Strategies to Reduce Reliance on Fossil Fuels, Increase Air Quality, and Improve Human Health.

The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, 52(S1):53-56.

Reliance upon fossil fuels and limited greenspace contribute to poor indoor and outdoor air quality and adverse health outcomes, particularly in communities of color. This article describes justice-informed public health and legal interventions to increase access to greenspace and accelerate the transitions to renewable energy and away from gas appliances.

RevDate: 2024-07-12
CmpDate: 2024-07-12

Agahi M, Bartlett E, Lawton B, et al (2024)

Scalable, Coordinated Strategies Leveraging Community Health Workers in Addressing the Adverse and Inequitable Health Effects of Climate Change.

The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, 52(S1):62-65.

Effective climate change resilience in local communities must center each community's unique challenges and essential role in developing climate resilience strategies. This article will discuss recent developments by the federal government that align with a community-centered approach, and how Community Health Workers can influence the outcomes.

RevDate: 2024-07-12
CmpDate: 2024-07-12

Agahi M, Bartlett E, Lawton B, et al (2024)

Local Public Health Departments at the Intersection of Climate Change, Health Equity, and Public Health Laws and Policies.

The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, 52(S1):57-61.

Public health laws and policies are uniquely able to mitigate the adverse and inequitable health impacts of climate change. This article summarizes some key considerations in developing such laws and policies and a variety of approaches local public health departments are using to increase climate resilience and health equity.

RevDate: 2024-07-12
CmpDate: 2024-07-12

Bonafede M, Morabito M, A Marinaccio (2024)

[Tools of action for reducing the effects of climate change on occupational health and safety].

Epidemiologia e prevenzione, 48(3):189-192.

RevDate: 2024-07-12

Mach KJ, Jagannathan K, Shi L, et al (2024)

Research to Confront Climate Change Complexity: Intersectionality, Integration, and Innovative Governance.

Earth's future, 12(6):1-17.

Climate impacts increasingly unfold in interlinked systems of people, nature, and infrastructure. The cascading consequences are revealing sometimes surprising connections across sectors and regions, and prospects for climate responses also depend on complex, difficult-to-understand interactions. In this commentary, we build on the innovations of the United States Fifth National Climate Assessment to suggest a framework for understanding and responding to complex climate challenges. This approach involves: (a) integration of disciplines and expertise to understand how intersectionality shapes complex climate impacts and the wide-ranging effects of climate responses, (b) collaborations among diverse knowledge holders to improve responses and better encompass intersectionality, and (c) sustained experimentation with and learning about governance approaches capable of handling the complexity of climate change. Together, these three pillars underscore that usability of climate-relevant knowledge requires transdisciplinary coordination of research and practice. We outline actionable steps for climate research to incorporate intersectionality, integration, and innovative governance, as is increasingly necessary for confronting climate complexity and sustaining equitable, ideally vibrant climate futures.

RevDate: 2024-07-12

Braunwald E (2024)

Cardiovascular effects of climate change.

European heart journal pii:7712525 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2024-07-11

Nakhaei P, Kisi O, Nakhaei M, et al (2024)

Assessment of climate change on river streamflow under different representative concentration pathways.

Journal of environmental management, 366:121754 pii:S0301-4797(24)01740-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and excessive greenhouse gas emissions profoundly impact hydrological cycles, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, necessitating assessments of their effects on water resource management, agriculture, soil fertility, nutrient transport, hydropower generation, and flood risk. This study investigates climate change repercussions on streamflow in the Zarrineh River Basin, Iran, across three decadal intervals (2020-2029, 2055-2064, and 2090-2099) aiming to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs), chosen based on distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) determined by the annual mean temperature gradient, are employed. These models generate daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures along with precipitation data. Subsequently, these variables are integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze river flow alterations for each decadal timeframe. Comparison between future projections and observed climate data reveals a gradual decline in precipitation and Tmax, coupled with a substantial increase in Tmin. The average precipitation diminishes from 0.77 mm in the period 1985-1994 to a range of 0.42-0.28 mm in 2090-2099. The simulated flow at the basin outlet highlights that the GCM with the highest annual mean temperature gradient yields the lowest streamflow, while conversely, the model with the lowest gradient generates the highest. Consequently, streamflow experiences a decline from 52 m[3]/s in 1985-1994 to a range of 41-20 m[3]/s in 2090-2099.

RevDate: 2024-07-11

Zimmermann B, Kruber S, Nendel C, et al (2024)

Assessing the cooling potential of climate change adaptation measures in rural areas.

Journal of environmental management, 366:121595 pii:S0301-4797(24)01581-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Atmospheric heat has become a major public concern in a rapidly warming world. Evapotranspiration, however, provides effective land surface cooling during the vegetation period. Adversely, modern cultural landscapes - due to both water and potential evapotranspiration pathways lacking - are increasingly incapable of offering this important benefit. We hypothesised that concerted measures for a revived landscape water retention can fuel plant transpiration, especially during dry periods, and thus contribute to climate change adaptation by stabilising the regional climate. Seeking nature-based ways to an improved landscape water retention, we used the land surface temperature (LST) as a proxy for landscape mesoclimate. For our drought-prone rural study area, we identified potential candidate environmental predictors for which we established statistical relationships to LST. We then, from a set of potential climate change adaptation measures, mapped selected items to potential locations of implementation. Building on that, we evaluated a certain measures' probable cooling effect using (i) the fitted model and (ii) the expected expression of predictors before and after a hypothetical measure implementation. In the modelling, we took into account the spatial and temporal autocorrelation of the LST data and thus achieved realistic parameter estimates. Using the candidate predictor set and the model, we were able to establish a ranking of the effectiveness of climate adaptation measures. However, due to the spatial variability of the predictors, the modelled LST is site-specific. This results in a spatial differentiation of a measure's benefit. Furthermore, seasonal variations occur, such as those caused by plant growth. On average, the afforestation of arable land or urban brownfields, and the rewetting of former wet meadows have the largest cooling capacities of up to 3.5 K. We conclude that heat countermeasures based on fostering both evapotranspiration and landscape water retention, even in rural regions, offer promising adaptation ways to atmospheric warming.

RevDate: 2024-07-11

Ma Z, Wang W, Chen X, et al (2024)

Prediction of the global occurrence of maize diseases and estimation of yield loss under climate change.

Pest management science [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Climate change significantly impacts global maize production via yield reduction, posing a threat to global food security. Disease-related crop damage reduces quality and yield and results in economic losses. However, the occurrence of diseases caused by climate change, and thus crop yield loss, has not been given much attention.

RESULTS: This study aims to investigate the potential impact of six major diseases on maize yield loss over the next 20 to 80 years under climate change. To this end, the Maximum Entropy model was implemented, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 data. The results indicated that temperature and precipitation are identified as primary limiting factors for disease onset. Southern corn rust was projected to be the most severe disease in the future; with a few of the combined occurrence of all the selected diseases covered in this study were predicted to progressively worsen over time. Yield losses caused by diseases varied per continent, with North America facing the highest loss, followed by Asia, South America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania.

CONCLUSION: This study provides a basis for regional projections and global control of maize diseases under future climate conditions. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

RevDate: 2024-07-12

Wan Y, Li L, Zhou J, et al (2024)

Predicting the potential distribution change of the endangered Francois' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) across its entire range in China under climate change.

Ecology and evolution, 14(7):e11684.

The Francois' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) is a rare primate species indicated as endangered and distributed in karst areas in northern Vietnam and southwestern China. However, research limited to specific nature reserves or sites has hampered holistic conservation management. A comprehensive map of the potential distribution for the Francois' langur is essential to advance conservation efforts and ensure coordinated management across regions. Here, we used 82 occurrence records of Francois' langur surveyed in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Chongqing from 2017 to 2020, along with 12 environmental variables, to build the potential habitat model under current and future climate (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090s) using maximum entropy models (MaxEnt). Our results indicated that (1) precipitation- and temperature-associated bioclimatic variables contributed the most to the distribution of Francois' langur. Vegetation, water sources, and anthropogenic variables also affected its distribution; (2) a total of 144,207.44 km[2] of potential suitable habitat across the entire range in China was estimated by the current model. Moderate- and high-suitability habitats accounted for only 23.76% (34,265.96 km[2]) of the predicted suitable habitat and were mainly distributed in southwest Guangxi, east of Chongqing, and the border between Guizhou and Chongqing; (3) the suitable habitats of Francois' langur will contract considerably under future climate change, and the habitat centroid will move in the southeast direction with a shifting distance of approximately 2.84 km/year from current to 2100. The habitat prediction of Francois' langur and the main drivers proposed in this study could provide essential insights for the future conservation of this endangered species. The existing distribution areas should be monitored and protected, but conservation beyond existing habitats should also be a focus of effort, especially in future expansion areas. This would ensure effective and timely protection under climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

RevDate: 2024-07-12

Gholamhosseini A, Yousefi M, HR Esmaeili (2024)

Predicting climate change impacts on the distribution of endemic fish Cyprinion muscatense in the Arabian Peninsula.

Ecology and evolution, 14(7):e11720.

Freshwater fishes are facing considerable threats in the Arabian Peninsula which is considered as a highly stressed region in the Middle East. It is predicted that northern Oman is likely to face decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature in coming decades. In this study, we focused on an endemic cyprinid fish Cyprinion muscatense, as a model to investigate impacts of climate change on the mountain fishes inhibiting in this arid region. This species is expected to be strongly affected by climate change because of its limited distribution range in a montane area surrounded by lowlands and sea, limiting the species in shift to other areas. We used an ensemble approach by considering two regressions-based species distribution modeling (SDM) algorithms: generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized additive models (GAM) to model the species habitat suitability and predict the impacts of climate change on the species habitat suitability. Based on the distribution models, the montane area located in northeastern Oman was identified as the most suitable habitat for this species. Our results indicate that, even under the minimum greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 2.6), climate change will produce a high reduction in its potential future habitats. According to the results of percent contribution, elevation and annual minimum temperature were the most important variables in predicting the species suitable habitats. Results also showed that only a small percentage of suitable habitats for the species within boundaries of protected areas. Therefore, the impact of climate change on the species appears particularly alarming. Although our study was restricted to a single cyprinid freshwater species, decreases in potential habitats are likely predicted for other cyprinid fish species restricted to the mountains of this region, suggesting severe consideration is needed for aquatic systems in future conservation planning, especially for endemic freshwater fishes.

RevDate: 2024-07-11
CmpDate: 2024-07-11

Parums DV (2024)

A Review of the Increasing Global Impact of Climate Change on Human Health and Approaches to Medical Preparedness.

Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research, 30:e945763 pii:945763.

At the end of 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) identified climate change as the greatest threat to human health. Global climate change is due to rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels, mainly by populations in developed and developing countries. In 2022, the world experienced the highest temperatures for over 100,000 years. However, in 2022, global investment in fossil fuels increased by 10% and reached more than USD 1 trillion. The 2023 Lancet Commission report concluded that there has been little progress in protecting individuals from the adverse health effects of climate change. It is clear that global action against climate change needs to move more quickly, and the inequalities in the effects of climate change, including the impact on health, are increasing. This article aims to review the ongoing global impact of climate change on human health at individual and population levels, including recent initiatives and medical approaches to prepare for this increasing challenge.

RevDate: 2024-07-11

Sahni J, Lin WS, Kilinc E, et al (2024)

Advancing climate change education in the dental curriculum.

Journal of dental education [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2024-07-10
CmpDate: 2024-07-10

Parker EJ, Weiskopf SR, Oliver RY, et al (2024)

Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change.

Global change biology, 30(7):e17408.

The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and biases and to motivate future data collection. We find that species coverage varies strongly by taxon and underrepresents species at high and low latitudes. Within species, assessments of potential redistributions came from parts of their geographic range that were highly uneven and non-representative. For most species and taxa, studies were strongly biased toward the colder parts of species' distributions and thus significantly underrepresented populations that might get pushed beyond their maximum temperature limits. Coverage of potential leading and trailing geographic range edges under a changing climate was similarly uneven. Only 8% of studied species were assessed at both high and low latitude and elevation range edges, with most only covered at one edge. This suggests that substantial within-species biases exacerbate the considerable geographic and taxonomic among-species unevenness in evidence. Our results open the door for a more quantitative accounting for existing knowledge biases in climate change ecology and a more informed management and conservation. Our findings offer guidance for future data collection that better addresses information gaps and provides a more effective foundation for managing the biological impacts of climate change.

RevDate: 2024-07-10

Zhao X, Wei JC, C Li (2024)

Critical Review and Recommendations for Enhancing the Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Rheumatic Conditions.

RevDate: 2024-07-10
CmpDate: 2024-07-10

Li X, Huntingford C, Wang K, et al (2024)

Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming.

Global change biology, 30(7):e17406.

Temperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing-season temperature and satellite-based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001-2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high-temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world.

RevDate: 2024-07-10
CmpDate: 2024-07-09

Guo Z (2024)

More studies needed on how climate change affects exercise health benefits.

Nature, 631(8020):275.

RevDate: 2024-07-09
CmpDate: 2024-07-09

Bizama G, Jan A, Olivos JA, et al (2024)

Climate change can disproportionately reduce habitats of stream fishes with restricted ranges in southern South America.

Scientific reports, 14(1):15780.

Freshwater fishes are among the most threatened taxa worldwide owing to changes in land use, species introductions, and climate change. Although more than half of the freshwater fishes in the Chilean Mediterranean ecoregion are considered vulnerable or endangered, still little is known about their biogeography. Fishes of the family Perciliidae are endemic of this region and ideal cases to study potential implications of global warming given their endangered conservation status, small size, restricted range, and limited dispersal capacity in fragmented habitats. Here, we model the spatial distribution of habitats for Percilia irwini and P. gillissi under current (1970-2000) and future (2050-2080) climatic scenarios (SSP245, SSP585). We implement maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models adapted for stream networks using high-resolution datasets of selected geophysical and climatic variables. At present, both species inhabit relatively low-quality habitats. In the future (SSP585), suitable habitats for P. irwini are predicted to be reduced drastically (99%) with potential local extirpations in its northern range. Similarly, up to 62% of suitable habitats for P. gillissi would also be reduced in the future. Our study provides insights about assessing future threats and vulnerability of endemic, endangered, range-restricted, and small-bodied freshwater species in this region and elsewhere.

RevDate: 2024-07-11
CmpDate: 2024-07-09

Gebremedhn H, Gebrewahid Y, Haile GG, et al (2024)

Projecting the impact of climate change on honey bee plant habitat distribution in Northern Ethiopia.

Scientific reports, 14(1):15866.

Climate change significantly affects the diversity, growth, and survival of indigenous plant species thereby influencing the nutrition, health and productivity of honey bees (Apis mellifera). Hypoestes forskaolii (Vahl) is one of the major honey bee plant species in Ethiopia's Tigray region. It is rich in pollen and nectar that typically provides white honey, which fetches a premium price in both local and inter-national markets. Despite its socio-economic and apicultural significance, the distribution of H. forskaolii has been declining, raising concerns regarding its conservation efforts. However, there is limited knowledge on how environmental and climatic factors affect its current distribution and response to future climate change. The study investigates the current and projected (the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) habitat distributions of H. forskaolii under three future climate change scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, and ssp585) using the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). The results show that land use (50.1%), agro-ecology (28%), precipitation during the Driest Quarter (11.2%) and soil texture (6.1%) predominantly influence the distribution of H. forskaolii, collectively explaining 95.4% of the model's predictive power. Habitats rich in evergreen trees and mosaic herbaceous with good vegetation cover are identified as the most suitable for H. forskaolii. The spatial distribution of H. forskaolii is concentrated in the highlands and mid-highlands of the eastern and southern parts of Tigray, characterized by a colder temperature. Across the three climate change scenarios, the size of suitable habitat for H. forskaolii is projected to decrease over the four time periods studied. Predictions under the ssp585 scenario reveal alarming results, indicating a substantial decrease in the suitable habitat for H. forskaolii from 4.26% in the 2030s to 19.09% in the 2090s. Therefore, given the challenges posed by climate change, research efforts should focus on identifying and evaluating new technologies that can help the H. forskaolii species in adapting and mitigating the effects of climate change.

RevDate: 2024-07-11
CmpDate: 2024-07-09

Boakes EH, Dalin C, Etard A, et al (2024)

Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change.

Nature communications, 15(1):5750.

The global food system is a key driver of land-use and climate change which in turn drive biodiversity change. Developing sustainable food systems is therefore critical to reversing biodiversity loss. We use the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE to estimate the biodiversity impacts embedded within the global food system in 2011. Using models that capture regional variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity both to land use and climate change, we calculate the land-driven and greenhouse gas-driven footprints of food using two metrics of biodiversity: local species richness and rarity-weighted species richness. We show that the footprint of land area underestimates biodiversity impact in more species-rich regions and that our metric of rarity-weighted richness places a greater emphasis on biodiversity costs in Central and South America. We find that methane emissions are responsible for 70% of the overall greenhouse gas-driven biodiversity footprint and that, in several regions, emissions from a single year's food production are associated with global biodiversity loss equivalent to 2% or more of that region's total land-driven biodiversity loss. The measures we present are relatively simple to calculate and could be incorporated into decision-making and environmental impact assessments by governments and businesses.

RevDate: 2024-07-09
CmpDate: 2024-07-09

Anonymous (2024)

STRENGTHENED GLOBAL CAPACITIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH: WHO TRAINING IN MADRID.

Neurosciences (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia), 29(3):212-213.

RevDate: 2024-07-09

Taylor AK, Berke MA, A Koutsodendris (2024)

Climate change and human impacts on aquatic communities at Etoliko Lagoon in western Greece.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)04739-9 [Epub ahead of print].

The Etoliko Lagoon in western Greece has experienced extensive human modification since the 20th century, both on the surrounding land and in the aquatic environment. To examine human impacts and disentangle climatic from anthropogenic changes, we present a suite of biomarker records that span the past two centuries (~1790-2011). Specifically, we use terrigenous (n-alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and phytosterols) and aquatic (dinosterol, brassicasterol, cholesterol, and stigmasterol) biomarkers to document changes in nutrient inputs, combustion, and algal productivity. During most of the 19th and 20th centuries, aquatic communities respond to temperature, forced mainly by solar irradiance and volcanic activity, and precipitation, controlled largely by summer and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns that determine freshwater runoff. PAHs illustrate the acceleration of coal combustion during the 1800s, and declining concentrations since the 1950s correspond to the implementation of emission controls and reductions in rainfall that likely inhibited PAH transport. As human pressures increased in the late 1900s and water column anoxia grew, the absence of a clear human waste and eutrophication signal suggests that other factors also contributed to limited oxygen availability. Overall, environmental degradation of the late 20th and early 21st centuries is clear and can be attributed to a combination of especially arid conditions and human interferences that altered lagoon hydrography, trophic state, and aquatic community composition.

RevDate: 2024-07-09

Janizadeh S, Kim D, Jun C, et al (2024)

Impact of climate change on future flood susceptibility projections under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios in South Asia using artificial intelligence algorithms.

Journal of environmental management, 366:121764 pii:S0301-4797(24)01750-X [Epub ahead of print].

This study investigated the impact of climate change on flood susceptibility in six South Asian countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bharat (India), Nepal, and Pakistan-under two distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-5.8, for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. To predict flood susceptibility, we employed three artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms: the K-nearest neighbor (KNN), conditional inference random forest (CIRF), and regularized random forest (RRF). Predictions were based on data from 2452 historical flood events, alongside climatic variables measured over monthly, seasonal, and annual timeframes. The innovative aspect of this research is the emphasis on using climatic variables across these progressively condensed timeframes, specifically addressing eight precipitation factors. The performance evaluation, employing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metric, identified the RRF model as the most accurate, with the highest AUC of 0.94 during the testing phase, followed by the CIRF (AUC = 0.91) and the KNN (AUC = 0.86). An analysis of variable importance highlighted the substantial role of certain climatic factors, namely precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation during the wettest month, in the modeling of flood susceptibility in South Asia. The resultant flood susceptibility maps demonstrated the influence of climate change scenarios on susceptibility classifications, signalling a dynamic landscape of flood-prone areas over time. The findings revealed variable trends under different climate change scenarios and periods, with marked differences in the percentage of areas classified as having high and very high flood susceptibility. Overall, this study advances our understanding of how climate change affects flood susceptibility in South Asia and offers an essential tool for assessing and managing flood risks in the region.

RevDate: 2024-07-10
CmpDate: 2024-07-08

Lim C, Kang JH, Bayartogtokh B, et al (2024)

Climate change will lead to range shifts and genetic diversity losses of dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe.

Scientific reports, 14(1):15639.

Desertification is known to be a major threat to biodiversity, yet our understanding of the consequent decline in biodiversity remains insufficient. Here, we predicted climate change-induced range shifts and genetic diversity losses in three model dung beetles: Colobopterus erraticus, Cheironitis eumenes, and Gymnopleurus mopsus, distributed across the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe, areas known for desertification. Phylogeographic analyses of mitochondrial COI sequences and species distribution modeling, based on extensive field investigations spanning 14 years, were performed. Species confined to a single biome were predicted to contract and shift their distribution in response to climate change, whereas widespread species was predicted to expand even if affected by range shifts. We indicated that all species are expected to experience significant haplotype losses, yet the presence of high singleton frequencies and low genetic divergence across geographic configurations and lineages mitigate loss of genetic diversity. Notably, Cheironitis eumenes, a desert species with low genetic diversity, appears to be the most vulnerable to climate change due to the extensive degradation in the Gobi Desert. This is the first study to predict the response of insects to desertification in the Gobi Desert. Our findings highlight that dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe might experience high rates of occupancy turnover and genetic loss, which could reshuffle the species composition.

RevDate: 2024-07-09

Atchadé MN, H Nougbodé (2024)

Statistical investigation on the relationship between climate change, food availability, agricultural productivity, and economic expansion.

Heliyon, 10(12):e32520.

This study examined the connections between Benin's economic expansion, food production, agricultural productivity, and climate change. Using yearly statistics between 1961 and 2021, and R software version 4.2.2, we aim to: (1) Analyze how agricultural added value affects economic expansion; (2) analyze the effects of food production and temperature lagged values on economic growth; (3) investigate the different causality relationships between food production, temperature variation, agricultural added value and economic growth. To achieve these goals, statistical and econometric techniques such as Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality framework were employed. The ARDL model verifies that there is a positive correlation between economic growth and the added value of agriculture based on empirical data. In addition, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model highlights the favorable impact of lagged food production values and the adverse effect of temperature fluctuations on economic growth. Granger causality analysis, employing the Toda-Yamamoto approach, unveils unidirectional links between food production and economic growth, as well as between temperature variation and agricultural added value. Interestingly, the study comes to the conclusion that there are no direct causal links between economic expansion and agricultural growth or between economic growth and temperature variance. Notably, bidirectional causality is established between livestock production and both economic growth and agricultural added value. These insights have significant implications for understanding climate change impacts on agriculture and suggest the need for adapted strategies to mitigate climate effects. Future research could focus on evaluating existing policies, exploring social and economic impacts, investigating market dynamics, and utilizing integrated assessment modeling to inform decision-making and foster sustainable economic growth in Benin's agricultural sector.

RevDate: 2024-07-08
CmpDate: 2024-07-08

Tumwine JK (2023)

Editorial: Infections, non-communicable diseases, and reproductive health issues in a world beset by conflict and climate change.

African health sciences, 23(4):i-iv.

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ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

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In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

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Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

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In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

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Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

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