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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 20 Jul 2019 at 01:47 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-07-19

Onozuka D, Gasparrini A, Sera F, et al (2019)

Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan.

Environmental health perspectives, 127(7):77006.

BACKGROUND: Climate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change-related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.

METHODS: Weekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990-2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.

RESULTS: In the period 2005-2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010-2019 was [Formula: see text] (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: [Formula: see text], 0.5) for RCP2.6, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP4.5, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP6.0, and [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]).

CONCLUSIONS: Japan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4731.

RevDate: 2019-07-18

Morton S, Pencheon D, G Bickler (2019)

The sustainable development goals provide an important framework for addressing dangerous climate change and achieving wider public health benefits.

Public health, 174:65-68 pii:S0033-3506(19)30165-9 [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVES: To suggest how public health systems and the health sector can utilise the United Nation (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) to address climate change and other threats to future health and deliver immediate public health benefits.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We examined UN and World Health Organisation guidance on SDGs and other published texts on systems thinking, integration, universality and co-benefits.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The UN SDGs are a set of globally agreed objectives to end poverty, protect all that makes the planet habitable and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. The SDGs integrate the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, environmental and social), they apply to high-income countries as well as developing countries and there are mechanisms to hold countries to account. There are three crucial issues for public health. First, a systems approach to future proof health and social justice. Second, an evidence-based approach to aid communication, framing and engagement. And, third, the importance of interventions that deliver health co-benefits (i.e. both immediate and long-term benefits to health, equity and prosperity). The SDGs present public health professionals with an important opportunity to create the right conditions for a better future through the organised efforts of society.

RevDate: 2019-07-18

Diele-Viegas LM, Werneck FP, CFD Rocha (2019)

Climate change effects on population dynamics of three species of Amazonian lizards.

Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular & integrative physiology pii:S1095-6433(19)30294-6 [Epub ahead of print].

The scarcity of data on natural history and ecology of lizards still limits the understanding of population dynamics for many species. We attempt to evaluate possible effects of climate change on the population dynamics of three lizard species (Ameiva ameiva, Gonatodes humeralis and Norops fuscoauratus) in two Amazonian localities (Caxiuanã National Forest and Ducke Reserve). We calculated a tolerance index combining environmental thermal adequacy with the b-d model, which consider survival and reproductive rates to calculate population dynamics. Thus, we simulated population growth rates based on current and future environmental operative temperatures, considering an optimistic and a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions (GGE), and evaluate if the sensitivity of life history traits to population growth rate are likely to be trigged by climate change. Our results demonstrated that both populations of G. humeralis and the Ducke population of N. fuscoauratus may become locally extinct under both scenarios of GGE, while both populations of A. ameiva are likely to decrease, but without reaching a scenario of local extirpation. This study represents the first effort to evaluate the sensitivity of lizard populations and elasticity to climate change and demonstrate the geographic variability of these traits in three widespread and habitat-generalist species. We highlight the need of new studies focusing on species with different biological trait patterns, such as endemic distributions and habitat-specialists, to provide the theoretical and empirical basis for biologically informed conservation strategies and actions, in order to minimize the potential extinction of populations due to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-07-18

Schnitter R, P Berry (2019)

The Climate Change, Food Security and Human Health Nexus in Canada: A Framework to Protect Population Health.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(14): pii:ijerph16142531.

Climate change impacts on the Canadian food system pose risks to human health. Little attention has been paid to the climate change, food security, and human health nexus, resulting in a number of knowledge gaps regarding food system components that are most vulnerable to climate change. The lack of understanding of key dynamics and possible future impacts challenges the ability of public health officials and partners in other sectors to prepare Canadians for future health risks. A series of literature reviews were conducted to establish the relationship between climate change, food security, and human health, and to identify vulnerabilities within the Canadian food system. Evidence suggests that key activities within the food system are vulnerable to climate change. The pathways in which climate change impacts travel through the food system and affect the critical dimensions of food security to influence human health outcomes are complex. Climate-related disruptions in the food system can indirectly impact human health by diminishing food security, which is a key determinant of health. Human health may also be directly affected by the physical effects of climate change on the food system, primarily related to the impacts on nutrition and foodborne illnesses. In this study, we propose a novel analytical framework to study and respond to the climate change, food security, and human health nexus. This work is intended to help public health officials, researchers, and relevant stakeholders investigate and understand current and future risks, and inform adaptation efforts to protect the health of Canadians.

RevDate: 2019-07-17

Crombé P (2019)

Mesolithic projectile variability along the southern North Sea basin (NW Europe): Hunter-gatherer responses to repeated climate change at the beginning of the Holocene.

PloS one, 14(7):e0219094 pii:PONE-D-19-06264.

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Chen C, Harvey JA, Biere A, et al (2019)

Rain downpours affect survival and development of insect herbivores: the specter of climate change?.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of rainfall events are among the abiotic effects predicted under anthropogenic global warming. Heavy downpours may profoundly affect the development and survival of small organisms such as insects. Here, we examined direct (physically on the insects) and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of simulated downpours on the performance of caterpillars of two lepidopteran herbivores (Plutella xylostella and Pieris brassicae) feeding on black mustard (Brassica nigra) plants. Host plants were exposed to different rainfall regimes both before and while caterpillars were feeding on the plants in an attempt to separate direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of rainfall on insect survival and development. In two independent experiments, downpours were simulated as a single long (20 min) or as three short (5 min) daily events. Downpours had a strong negative direct effect on the survival of P. xylostella, but not on that of P. brassicae. Direct effects of downpours consistently increased development time of both herbivore species, whereas effects on body mass depended on herbivore species and downpour frequency. Caterpillar disturbance by rain and recorded microclimatic cooling by 5 °C may explain extended immature development. Indirect, plant-mediated effects of downpours on the herbivores were generally small, despite the fact that sugar concentrations were reduced and herbivore induction of secondary metabolites (glucosinolates) was enhanced in plants exposed to rain. Changes in the frequency of precipitation events due to climate change may impact the survival and development of insect herbivores differentially. Broader effects of downpours on insects and other arthropods up the food chain could seriously impair and disrupt trophic interactions, ultimately destabilizing communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Correa-Lima APA, Varassin IG, Barve N, et al (2019)

Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

Annals of botany pii:5532755 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS: Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

METHODS: We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

KEY RESULTS: Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Jakoby O, Lischke H, B Wermelinger (2019)

Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus).

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time-varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre-shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long-term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production, protection against rockfall and avalanches, and carbon storage. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Chakwizira J (2019)

Rural transport and climate change in South Africa: Converting constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(3):718 pii:JAMBA-11-718.

This study explored the implications of climate change for rural transport in South Africa. The article was seeking to convert existing rural transport adaptation constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities. Challenges and constraints to rural transport adaptation transitions were also explored. The research methodology adopted was a review of the literature and references to case study examples. Then a four-stage multi-analytical approach was used to unravel and decode the major rural transport and climate change issues in South Africa. Consequent to the analysis, a framework of analysis for strongly integrating climate change to rural transport interventions was advanced. The findings indicated the existing rural transport adaptation measures and options in South Africa. The article concludes by highlighting the complexity and intricate dynamic nature of interactions, networks and systems that impact rural South Africa. Recommendations revolve around properly situating rural transport and climate change within the wider rural development challenges and matters facing contemporary South Africa.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Nhamo G, AO Agyepong (2019)

Climate change adaptation and local government: Institutional complexities surrounding Cape Town's Day Zero.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(3):717 pii:JAMBA-11-717.

The challenges associated with climate change in local governments are growing daily. One such challenge is water security, an aspect that draws us to the subject matter of climate change adaptation. This article discusses findings about institutional complexities surrounding Day Zero, a concept associated with water taps running dry because of drought conditions as aggravated by climate change in the city of Cape Town, South Africa. The thrust on institutional complexities is deliberate, as this affects how crisis situations like Day Zero were handled. The data were generated mainly from the actor-actant-network theory, events study as well as document and discourse analysis methods. The actor-actant-network theory is used widely to trace how actors (humans) and actants (non-human phenomena) interact in space and time through their networks, following narratives like Day Zero, and act on climate-related matters. The analysis applied elements of grounded theory, resulting in categories and themes emerging for discussion. The article found that narratives surrounding Day Zero were embedded in both political and administrative dilemmas and red tape. Despite these challenges, the article concludes that Day Zero remains one of the landmark learning points for climate change adaptation and water security in Cape Town, South Africa, and in other cities across the world. The article recommends that Day Zero experiences continue to be embraced positively and documented further to enhance local government climate adaptation for water security currently and into the future as well.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Shokane AL (2019)

Social work assessment of climate change: Case of disasters in greater Tzaneen municipality.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(3):710 pii:JAMBA-11-710.

Climate-change-induced disasters such as floods, heavy storms, tornadoes and extreme lightning are becoming more frequent in Africa generally and in South Africa specifically. Several factors contribute to Africa's high vulnerability to disasters, including the high rate of population growth, food insecurity, high levels of poverty, inappropriate use of natural resources and failures of policy and institutional frameworks. The study adopted an ecological systems theory as a theoretical framework to explain how social work in rural communities deals with climate-change-induced disasters. The aim was to explore and describe the role of social work in the assessment of climate change disaster predicaments. A qualitative approach, utilising an exploratory-descriptive design, was adopted for this study. A purposive sampling technique was used to select five social workers and two social auxiliary workers to participate in the study. Semi-structured interviews were applied in the research as a tool for data collection. Data were analysed qualitatively using thematic content analysis. The research concluded that social workers should intervene in climate-change-induced disasters by conducting assessments and providing disaster intervention strategies.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Mhlanga-Ndlovu BFN, G Nhamo (2019)

Small-Scale Farmers Associations' adaptive capacity to climate change in Swaziland sugarcane industry.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(2):697 pii:JAMBA-11-697.

This study investigated the existing adaptive capacity for climate change impacts by Small-Scale Famers Associations (SSFAs) in Swaziland's sugar industry. The analysis of adaptive capacity considered how the livelihood assets (natural, physical, financial, human and social) as discussed in the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) help promote SSFAs' adaptive capacity to climate change. The study took place in the Lowveld. Data were generated through a questionnaire from 45 SSFAs supervisors representing more than 2700 farmers. In addition, face-to-face interviews were undertaken with key informants, namely, Swaziland Water and Agricultural Development Enterprise, Swaziland Sugar Association, Ministry of Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Economic Planning and Development, and the United Nations Development Programme. The results indicate that the farmers have less adaptive capacity, and this affects the implementation of adaptation measures. The priority action towards increased adaptation includes interventions on credit, utility costs and taxes, land resources ownership and management, as well as information dissemination, especially early warning.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Ncube A, M Tawodzera (2019)

Communities' perceptions of health hazards induced by climate change in Mount Darwin district, Zimbabwe.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):748 pii:JAMBA-11-748.

Climate change contributes toward many global challenges, such as increases in diseases in some communities, thereby accelerating health hazards to disasters. Establishing the extent to which local communities understand and perceive climate change and related health hazards is important for effective disaster risk management strategies. The objective of this study was to investigate communities' perceptions of health hazards induced by climate change in Mount Darwin district of Zimbabwe. This was in the light that besides the visible indications that climate is changing, the local people still perceive the climate change phenomenon as mystical or even a non-event. The study was situated within the social capital theory contextualised within the climate change, disaster management and the knowledge and perception realm constructed through social relationships, networks and interactions. A mixed-method research approach was used to assess the extent of knowledge and perceptions related to climate change and climate change-related health hazards. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to survey 204 participants from 10 wards in Mount Darwin, Zimbabwe. Respondents were purposively selected as they were mostly characterised by high vulnerability levels. While 38% of the respondents were not aware of climate change, 7% correctly identified climate change as caused by both natural and man-made forces. Most (89%) of the respondents stated that hazards occur mainly because of meteorological and hydrological causes. The study therefore recommended further education and awareness programmes to deepen community understanding of climate change. Despite the communities having some knowledge gaps and lacking an in-depth understanding of how climate change alters disease, there was some vital information within the Mount Darwin community that could have been used in local disaster risk management initiatives.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Volenzo TE, Odiyo JO, J Obiri (2019)

Greenhouse gas emissions as sustainability indicators in agricultural sectors' adaptation to climate change: Policy implications.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):576 pii:JAMBA-11-576.

Effective adaptation action to climate change requires a balance between reducing vulnerabilities and managing risks. However, in most adaptation actions, risks such as greenhouse gas emissions, and those that impose negative externalities on global communities and ecosystems, are often overlooked. This article contextualises adaptation of maize stover (MS) as a dairy cattle feed among resource-poor farmers in western Kenya. In so doing, it attempts to establish the nexus between resource constraint and maladaptation to climate change. Simulation of methane emissions was carried out from secondary data and a survey of dairy cattle feeding strategies by resource-poor farmers. The level of greenhouse gas emissions in dairy feeding strategies is used as a measure and indicator of sustainability. Using disaster risk reduction principles, policymakers and community of practice in climate change action are encouraged to design and implement policies and strategies that take cognisance of poverty-maladaptation-environmental degradation nexus.

RevDate: 2019-07-15

Matias RS, Gregory S, Ceia FR, et al (2019)

Show your beaks and we tell you what you eat: Different ecology in sympatric Antarctic benthic octopods under a climate change context.

Marine environmental research, 150:104757 pii:S0141-1136(19)30222-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Sympatry can lead to higher competition under climate change and other environmental pressures, including in South Georgia, Antarctica, where the two most common octopod species, Adelieledone polymorpha and Pareledone turqueti, occur side by side. Since cephalopods are typically elusive animals, the ecology of both species is poorly known. As beaks of cephalopods are recurrently found in top predator's stomachs, we studied the feeding ecology of both octopods through the evaluation of niche overlapping and specific beak adaptations that both species present. A multidisciplinary approach combining carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope signatures, mercury (Hg) analysis and biomaterials' engineering techniques was applied to investigate the beaks. An isotopic niche overlap of 95.6% was recorded for the juvenile stages of both octopod species, dropping to 19.2% for the adult stages. Both A. polymorpha and P. turqueti inhabit benthic ecosystems around South Georgia throughout their lifecycles (δ13C: -19.21 ± 1.87‰, mean ± SD for both species) but explore trophic niches partially different during adult life stages (δ15N: 7.01 ± 0.40‰, in A. polymorpha, and 7.84 ± 0.65‰, in P. turqueti). The beaks of A. polymorpha are less dense and significantly less stiff than in P. turqueti. Beaks showed lower mercury concentration relative to muscle (A. polymorpha - beaks: 0.052 ± 0.009 μg g-1, muscle: 0.322 ± 0.088 μg g-1; P. turqueti - beaks: 0.038 ± 0.009 μg g-1; muscle: 0.434 ± 0.128 μg g-1). Overall, both octopods exhibit similar habitats but different trophic niches, related to morphology/function of beaks. The high Hg concentrations in both octopods can have negative consequences on their top predators and may increase under the present climate change context.

RevDate: 2019-07-15

Destro GFG, de Fernandes V, de Andrade AFA, et al (2019)

Back home? Uncertainties for returning seized animals to the source-areas under climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source-areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source-municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source-areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source-areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two differ time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and a pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source-areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source-municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long-term. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-07-13

Guo L, Shan N, Zhang Y, et al (2019)

Separating the effects of climate change and human activity on water use efficiency over the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China.

The Science of the total environment, 690:584-595 pii:S0048-9697(19)33180-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Water use efficiency (WUE) is a central parameter for linking carbon and water exchange processes in terrestrial ecosystems. The Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) in China has undergone tremendous vegetation restoration and climate change. Understanding the WUE responses to climate change and human activity and their relative contributions to the trends and inter-annual variations (IAVs) in WUE is necessary to improve water use efficiency and strengthen water resource management. The evapotranspiration (ET) dataset based on the model tree ensemble (MTE) algorithm which was a machine learning approach using flux-tower ET measurements and the GLASS GPP dataset, as well as the variance decomposition method, were used to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in water use efficiency and inherent water use efficiency (IWUE) and the impacts of climate change and human activities. The results showed that the annual WUE and IWUE exhibited significantly increase in most regions of the BTSSR. The trend of human activity played the most important role in the increases of WUE and IWUE, with relative contributions of 88.2% and 85.9%, respectively, followed by the IAV of human activity for WUE (6.1%) and the trend of climate change (8.7%) for IWUE. The contribution of IAV to climate change was relatively small. Moreover, WUE and IWUE were all positively correlated with precipitation and temperature in most regions. Our results indicated that ecological restoration projects had significantly improved water use efficiency in BTSSR and may decrease the water burden in the BTSSR.

RevDate: 2019-07-13

Verheyen J, Tüzün N, R Stoks (2019)

Using natural laboratories to study evolution to global warming: contrasting altitudinal, latitudinal, and urbanization gradients.

Current opinion in insect science, 35:10-19 pii:S2214-5745(18)30185-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Demonstrating the likelihood of evolution in response to global warming is important, yet challenging. We discuss how three spatial thermal gradients (latitudinal, altitudinal, and urbanization) can be used as natural laboratories to inform about the gradual thermal evolution of populations by applying a space-for-time substitution (SFTS) approach. We compare thermal variables and confounding non-thermal abiotic variables, methodological approaches and evolutionary aspects associated with each type of gradient. On the basis of an overview of recent insect studies, we show that a key assumption of SFTS, local thermal adaptation along these gradients, is often but not always met, requiring explicit validation. To increase realism when applying SFTS, we highlight the importance of integrating daily temperature fluctuations, multiple stressors and multiple interacting species. Finally, comparative studies, especially across gradient types, are important to provide more robust inferences of evolution under gradual global warming. Integrating these research directions will further strengthen the still underused, yet powerful SFTS approach to infer gradual evolution under global warming.

RevDate: 2019-07-12

Fill JM, Davis CN, RM Crandall (2019)

Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning-ignited fire seasons.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet-dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897-2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder-days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning-ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.

RevDate: 2019-07-12

Lee JS, A Farlow (2019)

The threat of climate change to non-dengue-endemic countries: increasing risk of dengue transmission potential using climate and non-climate datasets.

BMC public health, 19(1):934 pii:10.1186/s12889-019-7282-3.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a major public health problem in the tropics and sub-tropics, but the disease is less known to non-dengue-endemic countries including in Northeast Asia. However, an unexpected dengue outbreak occurred in 2014 in Japan. Given that autochthonous (domestic) dengue cases had not been reported for the past 70 years in Japan, this outbreak was highly unusual and suggests that several environmental factors might have changed in a way that favors vector mosquitoes in the Northeast Asian region.

METHODS: A Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index, as validated in previous work, was constructed using climate and non-climate factors. This CRF index was compared to the number of reported dengue cases in Tokyo, Japan where the outbreak was observed in 2014. In order to identify high-risk areas, the CRF index was further estimated at the 5 km by 5 km resolution and mapped for Japan and South Korea.

RESULTS: The high-risk areas determined by the CRF index corresponded well to the provinces where a high number of autochthonous cases were reported during the outbreak in Japan. At the provincial-level, high-risk areas for dengue fever were the Eastern part of Tokyo and Kanakawa, the South-Eastern part of Saitama, and the North-Western part of Chiba. While a relatively small number of high-risk areas were identified in South Korea compared with Japan, the high-risk areas in South Korea include popular tourist destinations where international visitors have been increasing.

CONCLUSION: The recent dengue outbreak in Japan may signal that the two adjacent non-dengue-endemic countries are also exposed to the risk of temporal and sporadic behavior of dengue fever. It is critical to understand potential high-risk areas for future outbreaks and to set up appropriate prevention activities at the governmental-level.

RevDate: 2019-07-11

Jaffé R, Veiga JC, Pope NS, et al (2019)

Landscape genomics to the rescue of a tropical bee threatened by habitat loss and climate change.

Evolutionary applications, 12(6):1164-1177 pii:EVA12794.

Habitat degradation and climate change are currently threatening wild pollinators, compromising their ability to provide pollination services to wild and cultivated plants. Landscape genomics offers powerful tools to assess the influence of landscape modifications on genetic diversity and functional connectivity, and to identify adaptations to local environmental conditions that could facilitate future bee survival. Here, we assessed range-wide patterns of genetic structure, genetic diversity, gene flow, and local adaptation in the stingless bee Melipona subnitida, a tropical pollinator of key biological and economic importance inhabiting one of the driest and hottest regions of South America. Our results reveal four genetic clusters across the species' full distribution range. All populations were found to be under a mutation-drift equilibrium, and genetic diversity was not influenced by the amount of reminiscent natural habitats. However, genetic relatedness was spatially autocorrelated and isolation by landscape resistance explained range-wide relatedness patterns better than isolation by geographic distance, contradicting earlier findings for stingless bees. Specifically, gene flow was enhanced by increased thermal stability, higher forest cover, lower elevations, and less corrugated terrains. Finally, we detected genomic signatures of adaptation to temperature, precipitation, and forest cover, spatially distributed in latitudinal and altitudinal patterns. Taken together, our findings shed important light on the life history of M. subnitida and highlight the role of regions with large thermal fluctuations, deforested areas, and mountain ranges as dispersal barriers. Conservation actions such as restricting long-distance colony transportation, preserving local adaptations, and improving the connectivity between highlands and lowlands are likely to assure future pollination services.

RevDate: 2019-07-11

Lauriola P, Serafini A, Santamaria MG, et al (2019)

[Sentinel physicians for the environment and their role in connecting up global concerns due to climate change with local actions: thoughts and proposals].

Epidemiologia e prevenzione, 43(2-3):129-130.

RevDate: 2019-07-11

Valdivia-Garcia M, Weir P, Graham DW, et al (2019)

Predicted Impact of Climate Change on Trihalomethanes Formation in Drinking Water Treatment.

Scientific reports, 9(1):9967 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-46238-0.

Quantitative predictions of impacts on public water supplies are essential for planning climate change adaptations. Monitoring data from five full-scale Scottish drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) showed that significant correlations exist between conditionally carcinogenic trihalomethanes (THMs) levels, water temperature (r = 0.812, p = 0.0013) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) (r = 0.892, p < 0.0001), respectively. The strong seasonality of these parameters demonstrated how climate can influence THMs formation. We quantified with laboratory experiments the sensitivity of THMs formation to changes in water temperature and DOC concentration. The laboratory data accurately reproduced real-world THM formation in the DWTPs. We then combined these validated relationships with information from the literature about future trends in mean summer temperatures and surface water DOC in the British Isles, to estimate future global warming impacts on THMs formation in DWTPs that use chlorine for disinfection. An increase in mean summer temperatures will likely increase THM formation, with a 1.8 °C temperature increase and 39% THMs increase by 2050 representing our mid-range scenario. Such an increase has major implications to potable water around the world, either an increased health risk or increased water treatment costs to maintain an equivalent quality potable supply.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Rosario NA, D'Amato G, I Ansotegui (2019)

Global warming and warning.

Clinics (Sao Paulo, Brazil), 74:e1219.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Ferreira MT, Cardoso P, Borges PAV, et al (2019)

Correction: Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores).

PloS one, 14(7):e0219583 pii:PONE-D-19-18322.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0218168.].

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Stennett-Brown RK, Stephenson TS, MA Taylor (2019)

Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach.

PloS one, 14(7):e0219250 pii:PONE-D-18-33490.

The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Hamilton LC, Hartter J, E Bell (2019)

Generation gaps in US public opinion on renewable energy and climate change.

PloS one, 14(7):e0217608 pii:PONE-D-19-05831.

The topics of climate change and renewable energy are often linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also face differently-based opposition. Analyses of US and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010-2018) and northeast Oregon (2011-2018), explore the social bases and trends of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change due to substantive differences and more partisan opposition. Regarding climate change and to a lesser extent renewable energy, political divisions tends to widen with education. There also are robust age and temporal effects: younger adults more often prioritize renewable energy development, and agree with scientists on the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Across all age groups and both regional series, support for renewable energy and recognition of ACC have been gradually rising. Contrary to widespread speculation, these trends have not visibly responded to events such as the US hurricanes of 2012, 2017 or 2018. Together with age-cohort replacement and the potential for changes in age-group voting participation, however, the gradual trends suggest that public pressure for action on these issues could grow.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Bastin JF, Clark E, Elliott T, et al (2019)

Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues.

PloS one, 14(7):e0217592 pii:PONE-D-19-04241.

Combating climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the 'consensus gap' between scientific knowledge and public opinion. Here, we test the extent to which the iconic cities around the world are likely to shift in response to climate change. By analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we test if their climate in 2050 will resemble more closely to their own current climate conditions or to the current conditions of other cities in different bioclimatic regions. Even under an optimistic climate scenario (RCP 4.5), we found that 77% of future cities are very likely to experience a climate that is closer to that of another existing city than to its own current climate. In addition, 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. As a general trend, we found that all the cities tend to shift towards the sub-tropics, with cities from the Northern hemisphere shifting to warmer conditions, on average ~1000 km south (velocity ~20 km.year-1), and cities from the tropics shifting to drier conditions. We notably predict that Madrid's climate in 2050 will resemble Marrakech's climate today, Stockholm will resemble Budapest, London to Barcelona, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Tokyo to Changsha. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. The global assessment of city analogues can facilitate the understanding of climate change at a global level but also help land managers and city planners to visualize the climate futures of their respective cities, which can facilitate effective decision-making in response to on-going climate change.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Rosenbach M (2019)

Climate change, dermatology, and the time for real action.

Pediatric dermatology, 36(4):567-568.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Aguirre-Liguori JA, Ramírez-Barahona S, Tiffin P, et al (2019)

Climate change is predicted to disrupt patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize.

Proceedings. Biological sciences, 286(1906):20190486.

Climate change is one of the most important threats to biodiversity and crop sustainability. The impact of climate change is often evaluated on the basis of expected changes in species' geographical distributions. Genomic diversity, local adaptation, and migration are seldom integrated into future species projections. Here, we examine how climate change will impact populations of two wild relatives of maize, the teosintes Zea mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis. Despite high levels of genetic diversity within populations and widespread future habitat suitability, we predict that climate change will alter patterns of local adaptation and decrease migration probabilities in more than two-thirds of present-day teosinte populations. These alterations are geographically heterogeneous and suggest that the possible impacts of climate change will vary considerably among populations. The population-specific effects of climate change are also evident in maize landraces, suggesting that climate change may result in maize landraces becoming maladapted to the climates in which they are currently cultivated. The predicted alterations to habitat distribution, migration potential, and patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize raise a red flag for the future of populations. The heterogeneous nature of predicted populations' responses underscores that the selective impact of climate change may vary among populations and that this is affected by different processes, including past adaptation.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Qian D, Cao G, Du Y, et al (2019)

Impacts of climate change and human factors on land cover change in inland mountain protected areas: a case study of the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve in China.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(8):486 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7619-5.

Over the past few decades, natural reserves have been affected by both climate change and human activities, and their land cover has changed dramatically, especially in mountain reserves, which are more sensitive to climate change and human activities. This paper used long-term Landsat and MODIS NDVI remote sensing data to monitor the changes of land cover and vegetation conditions in the Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve (QMNNR) in China from 1975 to 2015, and analysed the impacts of climate change and human activities in combination with meteorological and socioeconomic data. The results show that the land cover structure of the QMNNR has remained stable over the past 40 years, but the total area of natural vegetation has decreased by 49.55 km2, the artificial surface and cropland has expanded by 13.68 and 32.57 km2 in some areas, respectively, and the glacier has retreated by 33.34 km2 as a whole. The warming and humidification trend of the climate is the leading factor for glacial retreat and the improvement of the overall vegetation condition, while population growth and economic benefits lead to the expansion of cropland and artificial surfaces in some areas, thus causing the reduction of 18.80 and 28.30 km2 in shrubland and grassland. This study proves that the system of protected areas plays a key role in maintaining the stability of the ecosystem structure and that reducing the population density around the protected areas and changing the mode of economic development can effectively reduce the intensity of human interference. Under the background of climate warming, the change of the ecosystem function in mountain protected areas is full of uncertainty, so management and protection strategies need to be studied in depth.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Soon TK, H Zheng (2019)

Climate Change and Bivalve Mass Mortality in Temperate Regions.

Reviews of environmental contamination and toxicology [Epub ahead of print].

One of the fastest-growing global food sectors is the bivalve aquaculture industry. Bivalves particularly oysters, mussels and clams are important sources of animal protein (Tan and Ransangan 2016a, b). Bivalve aquaculture represents 14-16% of the average per capita animal protein for 1.5 billion people and supports over 200,000 livelihoods, mostly in developing countries (FAO 2018). Most of the bivalves produced around the world (89%) are from aquaculture (FAO 2016). To date, mollusc aquaculture have accounted for 21.42% (17.14 million tonnes) of the total aquaculture production, with Asia being the largest contributor (92.27%) (FAO 2018).

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Kreslake JM (2019)

Perceived Importance of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation According to Social and Medical Factors Among Residents of Impacted Communities in the United States.

Health equity, 3(1):124-133 pii:10.1089/heq.2019.0002.

Purpose: To determine whether perceived importance of local climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts differs according to social or medical factors among residents of impacted communities. Methods: An online survey was conducted among residents of California (Los Angeles/Orange), Florida (Miami-Dade/Broward), and Arizona (Maricopa) counties in July 2018 (n=605). Multivariable ordered logistic regression measured associations between the perceived importance of adaptation/mitigation approaches and income, race/ethnicity, and health conditions, controlling for age, political party, and county. Results: Lower income was associated with higher perceived importance of improved emergency alerts, government-subsidized costs of household air conditioners and energy-efficient appliances, strengthening buildings against extreme weather, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, urban planning using "cooling" technologies, and expanding community gardens/local agriculture. Black respondents perceived evacuation services for those with financial barriers during extreme weather, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, and communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation as significantly more important compared to non-Black, non-Hispanic respondents. Hispanic respondents perceived significantly greater importance of improved emergency alerts and health care access during extreme weather, evacuation services for residents without transportation, government-subsidized costs of energy-efficient appliances, regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, communication from government agencies about local climate impacts and mitigation efforts, and intergovernmental cooperation on mitigation compared to non-Hispanic respondents. Conclusions: Perceptions of the importance of specific local climate actions differ according to race/ethnicity and income. Community engagement is recommended to help local decisions reflect priorities of the most affected residents.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Schiermeier Q (2019)

Climate change made Europe's mega-heatwave five times more likely.

Nature, 571(7764):155.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Hotta M, Tsuyama I, Nakao K, et al (2019)

Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps.

BMC ecology, 19(1):23 pii:10.1186/s12898-019-0238-8.

BACKGROUND: The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081-2100 as future climate conditions.

RESULTS: The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan's northern Alps (36.25-36.5°N, 137.5-137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs.

CONCLUSIONS: Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081-2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Song Y, Linderholm HW, Wang C, et al (2019)

The influence of excess precipitation on winter wheat under climate change in China from 1961 to 2017.

The Science of the total environment, 690:189-196 pii:S0048-9697(19)32940-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Winter wheat is one of China's most important staple food crops, and its growth and productivity are influenced by climate. Given its importance, we investigated the influence of excess precipitation under recent climate change on winter wheat in east-central China during 1961-2017. Although annual precipitation in the studied region decreased slightly, it increased during the winter wheat flowering and maturity period (May to June). Concurrently, the number of late growing season sunshine hours decreased. Our results showed that about 44% of the years with excess precipitation and less than normal radiation (16 years) were associated with decreasing winter wheat yields. Furthermore, during most years, precipitation of 50% above normal resulted in large decreases in winter wheat production in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, some of the wetter parts of the studied region. These results indicated that the grain yield variability of winter wheat was mainly influenced by excess precipitation in May, where precipitation could explain 70%-78% of yield variability in the wet parts. Moreover, excess precipitation can induce Fusarium head blight as well as wheat sprouting of pre-harvest, both affecting the grain quality of winter wheat. Projected increases in precipitation throughout the 21st century in the studied region, warrants further studies of how to maintain the winter wheat production in a changing climate.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Asmamaw M, Mereta ST, A Ambelu (2019)

Exploring households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks using Climate Resilience Index in Dinki watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia.

PloS one, 14(7):e0219393 pii:PONE-D-19-04073.

This study assessed households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks in Dinki watershed, northcentral highlands of Ethiopia. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted on 288 households, three focus group discussions, and 15 key informant interviews. The Climate Resilience Index (CRI) based on the three resilience capacities (absorptive, adaptive and transformative) frame was used to measure households' resilience to climate change-induced shocks on an agro-ecological unit of analysis. A principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis were used to identify determinant factors and indicators to households' resilience, respectively. Findings indicate that the indexed scores of major components clearly differentiated the study communities in terms of their agro-ecological zones. Specifically, the absorptive capacity (0.495) was the leading contributing factor to resilience followed by adaptive (0.449) and transformative (0.387) capacities. Likewise, the Midland was relatively more resilient with a mean index value of 0.461. Both the PCA and multiple regression analysis indicated that access to and use of livelihood resources, such as farmlands and livestock holdings, diversity of income sources, infrastructure and social capital were determinants of households' resilience. In general, it might be due to their exposure to recurrent shocks coupled with limited adaptive capacities including underdeveloped public services, poor livelihood diversification practices, among others, the study communities showed minimal resilience capacity with a mean score of 0.44. Thus, in addition to short-term buffering strategies, intervention priority focusing on both adaptive and transformative capacities, particularly focusing on most vulnerable localities and constrained livelihood strategies, would contribute to ensuring long-term resilience in the study communities.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Milner J, Harpham C, Taylor J, et al (2019)

The Challenge of Urban Heat Exposure under Climate Change: An Analysis of Cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) Database.

Climate (Basel, Switzerland), 5(4):93.

The so far largely unabated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to increase global temperatures substantially over this century. We quantify the patterns of increases for 246 globally-representative cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database. We used an ensemble of 18 global climate models (GCMs) run under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario to estimate the increase in monthly mean temperatures by 2050 and 2100 based on 30-year averages. Model simulations were from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Annual mean temperature increases were 0.93 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 1.10 degrees Celsius by 2100 under RCP2.6, and 1.27 and 4.15 degrees Celsius under RCP8.5, but with substantial city-to-city variation. By 2100, under RCP2.6 no city exceeds an increase in Tmean > 2 degrees Celsius (relative to a 2017 baseline), while all do under RCP8.5, some with increases in Tmean close to, or even greater than, 7 degrees Celsius. The increases were greatest in cities of mid to high latitude, in humid temperate and dry climate regions, and with large seasonal variation in temperature. Cities are likely to experience large increases in hottest month mean temperatures under high GHG emissions trajectories, which will often present substantial challenges to adaptation and health protection.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Germain G, Simon A, Arsenault J, et al (2019)

Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change.

Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 45(5):143-148 pii:450505.

Climate change has been linked with the establishment and geographical expansion of zoonotic diseases, an example of which is the well-documented increase in human cases of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada. As temperatures continue to increase in Quebec, it is anticipated that several zoonotic diseases will be affected. In response to the growing zoonotic issues facing public health authorities, Quebec's Multi-Party Observatory on Zoonoses and Adaptation to Climate Change (Observatoire multipartite québécois sur les zoonoses et l'adaptation aux changements climatiques) (the Observatory) was founded in 2015 as part of the Quebec government's Climate Change Action Plan (Plan d'action 2013-2020 sur les changements climatiques). The Observatory was designed to bring together agencies involved in formulating public policy and experts from the disciplines of human health, animal health and environmental sciences, in a manner similar to the innovative "One World, One Health" approach. The Observatory provides a platform for knowledge sharing and consensus building among representatives of public policy decision makers and scientists. Its main objectives are to anticipate and prioritize potential issues associated with zoonotic diseases in Quebec, in order to support applicable risk management and climate change adaptation. This article describes what the Observatory is, what it does and outlines its plans for the future.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Kotchi SO, Bouchard C, Ludwig A, et al (2019)

Using Earth observation images to inform risk assessment and mapping of climate change-related infectious diseases.

Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 45(5):133-142 pii:450504.

The number of human cases of several climate-related infectious diseases, including tick- and mosquito-borne diseases, has increased in Canada and other parts of the world since the end of the last century. Predicting and mapping the risks associated with these diseases using environmental and climatic determinants derived from satellite images is an emerging method that can support research, surveillance, prevention and control activities and help to better assess the impacts of climate change in Canada. Earth observation images can be used to systematically monitor changes in the Earth's surface and atmosphere at different scales of time and space. These images can inform estimation and monitoring of environmental and climatic determinants, and thus disease prediction and risk mapping. The current array of Earth observation satellites provides access to a large quantity and variety of data. These data have different characteristics in terms of spatial, temporal and thematic precision and resolution. The objectives of this overview are to describe how Earth observation images may inform risk assessment and mapping of tick-borne and mosquito-borne diseases in Canada, their potential benefits and limitations, the implications and next steps.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Rees EE, Ng V, Gachon P, et al (2019)

Risk assessment strategies for early detection and prediction of infectious disease outbreaks associated with climate change.

Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 45(5):119-126 pii:450502.

A new generation of surveillance strategies is being developed to help detect emerging infections and to identify the increased risks of infectious disease outbreaks that are expected to occur with climate change. These surveillance strategies include event-based surveillance (EBS) systems and risk modelling. The EBS systems use open-source internet data, such as media reports, official reports, and social media (such as Twitter) to detect evidence of an emerging threat, and can be used in conjunction with conventional surveillance systems to enhance early warning of public health threats. More recently, EBS systems include artificial intelligence applications such machine learning and natural language processing to increase the speed, capacity and accuracy of filtering, classifying and analysing health-related internet data. Risk modelling uses statistical and mathematical methods to assess the severity of disease emergence and spread given factors about the host (e.g. number of reported cases), pathogen (e.g. pathogenicity) and environment (e.g. climate suitability for reservoir populations). The types of data in these models are expanding to include health-related information from open-source internet data and information on mobility patterns of humans and goods. This information is helping to identify susceptible populations and predict the pathways from which infections might spread into new areas and new countries. As a powerful addition to traditional surveillance strategies that identify what has already happened, it is anticipated that EBS systems and risk modelling will increasingly be used to inform public health actions to prevent, detect and mitigate the climate change increases in infectious diseases.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Howard C, P Huston (2019)

The health effects of climate change: Know the risks and become part of the solutions.

Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 45(5):114-118 pii:450501.

Climate change presents a clear and present danger to human health. Health impacts are already being demonstrated in Canada, which is warming at roughly twice the global rate. A recent United Nations Environment Emissions Gap Report noted that if countries maintain current emission efforts, emissions will exceed the targets laid out in the Paris Agreement and global warming will exceed 2ºC worldwide. An important consequence of global warming is an increase in health risks. Much can be done to prevent and mitigate the health impacts of climate change, and understanding and communicating these has been shown to be one of the best ways of motivating action. This editorial provides an overview of the some of the global and national initiatives underway to decrease emissions, and address the health risks of climate change in general, and highlights some of the national initiatives underway to mitigate the increased risk of infectious diseases in Canada in particular.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Smith BA, A Fazil (2019)

How will climate change impact microbial foodborne disease in Canada?.

Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 45(4):108-113 pii:450405.

Foodborne disease is a major concern in Canada and represents a significant climate change-related threat to public health. Climate variables, including temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme weather events and ocean warming and acidification, are known to exert significant, complicated and interrelated effects along the entire length of the food chain. Foodborne diseases are caused by a range of bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses, and the prevalence of these diseases is modified by climate change through alterations in the abundance, growth, range and survival of many pathogens, as well as through alterations in human behaviours and in transmission factors such as wildlife vectors. As climate change continues and/or intensifies, it will increase the risk of an adverse effect on food safety in Canada ranging from increased public health burden to the emergence of risks not currently seen in our food chain. Clinical and public health practitioners need to be aware of the existing and emerging risks to respond accordingly.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Ng V, Rees EE, Lindsay LR, et al (2019)

Could exotic mosquito-borne diseases emerge in Canada with climate change?.

Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 45(4):98-107 pii:450404.

Of the 3,500 species of mosquitoes worldwide, only a small portion carry and transmit the mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) that cause approximately half a million deaths annually worldwide. The most common exotic MBDs, such as malaria and dengue, are not currently established in Canada, in part because of our relatively harsh climate; however, this situation could evolve with climate change. Mosquitoes native to Canada may become infected with new pathogens and move into new regions within Canada. In addition, new mosquito species may move into Canada from other countries, and these exotic species may bring exotic MBDs as well. With high levels of international travel, including to locations with exotic MBDs, there will be more travel-acquired cases of MBDs. With climate change, there is the potential for exotic mosquito populations to become established in Canada. There is already a small area of Canada where exotic Aedes mosquitoes have become established although, to date, there is no evidence that these carry any exotic (or already endemic) MBDs. The increased risks of spreading MBDs, or introducing exotic MBDs, will need a careful clinical and public health response. Clinicians will need to maintain a high level of awareness of current trends, to promote mosquito bite prevention strategies, and to know the laboratory tests needed for early detection and when to report laboratory results to public health. Public health efforts will need to focus on ongoing active surveillance, public and professional awareness and mosquito control. Canadians need to be aware of the risks of acquiring exotic MBDs while travelling abroad as well as the risk that they could serve as a potential route of introduction for exotic MBDs into Canada when they return home.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Ludwig A, Zheng H, Vrbova L, et al (2019)

Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change.

Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 45(4):91-97 pii:450403.

There are currently over 80 species of mosquito endemic in Canada-although only a few of these carry pathogens that can cause disease in humans. West Nile virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus and the California serogroup viruses (including the Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses) are mosquito-borne viruses that have been found to cause human infections in North America, including in Canada. Over the last 20 years, the incidence of most of these endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has increased approximately 10% in Canada, due in large part to climate change. It is anticipated that both the mosquito lifecycle and virus transmission patterns will be affected by climate change, resulting in an increase in both the range and local abundance of several important mosquito species. Laboratory studies and mathematical modelling suggest that increased ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events associated with climate change will likely continue to drive mosquito vector and MBD range expansion, increasing the duration of transmission seasons and leading to MBD-related epidemics. Furthermore, Canada's endemic MBDs have complex transmission cycles, involving multiple reservoir hosts (birds and mammals), multiple pathogens and multiple mosquito species-all of which may be sensitive to climate and other environmental changes, and making forecasting of potential emerging trends difficult. These expected climate-induced changes in mosquitoes and MBDs underline the need for continued (and expanded) surveillance and research to ensure timely and accurate evaluation of the risks to the public health of Canadians.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Ogden NH, P Gachon (2019)

Climate change and infectious diseases: What can we expect?.

Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada, 45(4):76-80 pii:450401.

Global climate change, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is being particularly felt in Canada, with warming generally greater than in the rest of the world. Continued warming will be accompanied by changes in precipitation, which will vary across the country and seasons, and by increasing climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change will likely drive the emergence of infectious diseases in Canada by northward spread from the United States and introduction from elsewhere in the world via air and sea transport. Diseases endemic to Canada are also likely to re-emerge. This special issue describes key infectious disease risks associated with climate change. These include emergence of tick-borne diseases in addition to Lyme disease, the possible introduction of exotic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, more epidemics of Canada-endemic vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, and increased incidence of foodborne illnesses. Risk is likely to be compounded by an aging population affected by chronic diseases, which results in greater sensitivity to infectious diseases. Identifying emerging disease risks is essential to assess our vulnerability, and a starting point to identify where public health effort is required to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of the Canadian population.

RevDate: 2019-07-09

Goldberg MH, van der Linden S, Maibach E, et al (2019)

Discussing global warming leads to greater acceptance of climate science.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1906589116 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is an urgent global issue, with demands for personal, collective, and governmental action. Although a large body of research has investigated the influence of communication on public engagement with climate change, few studies have investigated the role of interpersonal discussion. Here we use panel data with 2 time points to investigate the role of climate conversations in shaping beliefs and feelings about global warming. We find evidence of reciprocal causality. That is, discussing global warming with friends and family leads people to learn influential facts, such as the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is happening. In turn, stronger perceptions of scientific agreement increase beliefs that climate change is happening and human-caused, as well as worry about climate change. When assessing the reverse causal direction, we find that knowing the scientific consensus further leads to increases in global warming discussion. These findings suggest that climate conversations with friends and family enter people into a proclimate social feedback loop.

RevDate: 2019-07-10

Yang RM (2019)

Mechanisms of soil organic carbon storage response to Spartina alterniflora invasion and climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 690:7-15 pii:S0048-9697(19)33046-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Coastal wetlands have been identified as vital global carbon (C) sinks; however, soil C sequestration in these ecosystems is susceptible to impacts of non-native species invasion and climate change worldwide. Although their potential impacts on soil organic C (SOC) storage have been reported in previous literature, the well-established mechanisms that control SOC storage response, especially in relation to soil depths, is still limited. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a structural equation model (SEM) to identify mechanisms that account for SOC changes in topsoil (0-0.3 m) and subsoil (0.3-0.6 m) on coastal wetland of the East China Sea, where SOC in both depths increased with exotic Spartina alterniflora invasion. In the initial model, we hypothesized that there were a set of direct and indirect effects of the invasion, climate, and soil physicochemical properties on SOC storage. By evaluating the interactions of these factors, we found relatively complex patterns that vary with depth. For topsoil, the invasion had not only direct effects on SOC storage, but also indirect effects through mediating effects of soil water content (SWC) that was linked to fine soil fractions. For subsoil, the invasion was indirectly related to SOC storage through mediating effects of SOC in topsoil, SWC, and salinity. SOC in subsoil was also affected by temperature. Our results highlight that the response of SOC storage to the invasion and climate change results from the interacting effects of climate-plant-soil system.

RevDate: 2019-07-07

Wilke ABB, Beier JC, G Benelli (2019)

Complexity of the relationship between global warming and urbanization - an obscure future for predicting increases in vector-borne infectious diseases.

Current opinion in insect science, 35:1-9 pii:S2214-5745(18)30184-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Arthropod vectors are responsible for the transmission of many infectious diseases. Currently, more than three billion people living in endemic areas are exposed to vector-borne pathogens. Substantial differences in the biology of arthropod vectors make it extremely challenging to predict the incidence of vector-borne diseases in the future. However, global warming and urbanization both profoundly affect the ecology and distribution of arthropod vectors. Such processes often result in a biotic homogenization of species in a non-random process of biodiversity loss. The data presently available indicate a trend towards progressive increases in the presence and abundance of vectors capable of thriving in urban environments amongst humans, thus, increasing the contact between vectors and human hosts. As a consequence, we expect the incidence of vector-borne diseases to increase. In our opinion, resources should be made available and directed to strategies within the Integrated Vector Management framework, focusing on proven vector control tools. Besides, a substantial reduction of IVM costs would be achieved by observing environmental guidelines and providing basic sanitary infrastructure at early stages of its development. This could help to increase IVM effectiveness in attenuating social determinants of health and social inequities due to exposure to vectors.

RevDate: 2019-07-05

Libera A, de Barros FPJ, Faybishenko B, et al (2019)

Climate change impact on residual contaminants under sustainable remediation.

Journal of contaminant hydrology, 226:103518 pii:S0169-7722(19)30085-3 [Epub ahead of print].

This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on residual contaminants in vadose zones and groundwater. We assume that the effect of climate changes can be represented by perturbations in the natural recharge through the aquifer system. We perform numerical modeling of unsaturated/saturated flow and transport and consider different performance metrics: contaminant concentrations at observation wells and contaminant export at the site's boundary. We evaluate the effect of increasing and decreasing recharge as well as the impact of potential failure of surface capping structures employed to immobilize vadose zone contaminants. Our approach is demonstrated in a real case study by simulating transport of non-reactive radioactive tritium at the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site. Results show that recharge changes significantly affect well concentrations: after an initial slight dilution we identify a significant concentration increase at different observation wells some years after the recharge increase and/or the cap failure, as a consequence of contaminants' mobilization. This effect is generally emphasized and occurs earlier as the recharge increases. Under decreased aquifers' recharge the concentration could slightly increase for some years, due to a decrease of dilution, depending on the magnitude of the negative recharge shift. We identify trigger levels of recharge above which the concentration/export breakthrough curves and the time of exceedance of the Maximum Contaminant Level for tritium are remarkably affected. Moreover, we observe that the contaminant export at the control plane, identified as the risk pathway to the downgradient population, may only be minimally affected by shifts in the natural recharge regime, except for some extreme cases. We conclude that more frequent sampling and in-situ monitoring near the source zone should be adopted to better explain concentrations' anomalies under changing climatic conditions. Moreover, the maintenance of the cap is critical not only to sequester residual contaminants in the vadose zone, but also to reduce the uncertainty associated with future precipitation changes. Finally, realistic flow and transport simulations achieved through proper calibration processes, rather than conservative modeling, should be adopted to identify non-trivial trade-offs which enable better allocation of resources towards reducing uncertainty in decision making.

RevDate: 2019-07-05

Achakulwisut P, Anenberg SC, Neumann JE, et al (2019)

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change.

GeoHealth, 3(5):127-144.

The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986-2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust-attributable all-cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust-attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate-driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34-47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986-2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national-scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust-related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature-related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.

RevDate: 2019-07-05

Marshall NA, Thiault L, Beeden A, et al (2019)

Our Environmental Value Orientations Influence How We Respond to Climate Change.

Frontiers in psychology, 10:938.

People variably respond to global change in their beliefs, behaviors, and grief (associated with losses incurred). People that are less likely to believe in climate change, adopt pro-environmental behaviors, or report ecological grief are assumed to have different psycho-cultural orientations, and do not perceive changes in environmental condition or any impact upon themselves. We test these assumptions within the context of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), a region currently experiencing significant climate change impacts in the form of coral reef bleaching and increasingly severe cyclones. We develop knowledge of environmental cultural services with the Environmental Schwartz Value Survey (ESVS) into four human value orientations that can explain individuals' environmental beliefs and behaviors: biospheric (i.e., concern for environment), altruistic (i.e., concern for others, and intrinsic values), egoistic (i.e., concern for personal resources) and hedonic values (i.e., concern for pleasure, comfort, esthetic, and spirituality). Using face-to-face quantitative survey techniques, where 1,934 residents were asked to agree or disagree with a range of statements on a scale of 1-10, we investigate people's (i) environmental values and value orientations, (ii) perceptions of environmental condition, and (iii) perceptions of impact on self. We show how they relate to the following climate change responses; (i) beliefs at a global and local scale, (ii) participation in pro-environmental behaviors, and (iii) levels of grief associated with ecological change, as measured by respective single survey questions. Results suggest that biospheric and altruistic values influenced all climate change responses. Egoistic values were only influential on grief responses. Perception of environmental change was important in influencing beliefs and grief, and perceptions of impact on self were only important in influencing beliefs. These results suggest that environmental managers could use people's environmental value orientations to more effectively influence climate change responses toward environmental stewardship and sustainability. Communications that target or encourage altruism (through understanding and empathy), biospherism (through information on climate change impacts on the environment), and egoism (through emphasizing the benefits, health and wellbeing derived from a natural resource in good condition), could work.

RevDate: 2019-07-05

Cummins D, Kennington WJ, Rudin-Bitterli T, et al (2019)

A genome-wide search for local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog reveals vulnerability to climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Terrestrial-breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome-wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range-edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.

RevDate: 2019-07-04

Nocco MA, Smail RA, CJ Kucharik (2019)

Observation of irrigation-induced climate change in the Midwest United States.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Irrigated agriculture alters near-surface temperature and humidity, which may mask global climate change at the regional scale. However, observational studies of irrigation-induced climate change are lacking in temperate, humid regions throughout North America and Europe. Despite unknown climate impacts, irrigated agriculture is expanding in the Midwest United States, where unconfined aquifers provide groundwater to support crop production on coarse soils. This is the first study in the Midwest United States to observe and quantify differences in regional climate associated with irrigated agricultural conversion from forests and rainfed agriculture. To this end, we established a 60 km transect consisting of 28 stations across varying land uses and monitored surface air temperature and relative humidity for 31 months in the Wisconsin Central Sands region. We used a novel approach to quantify irrigated land use in both space and time with a database containing monthly groundwater withdrawal estimates by parcel for the state of Wisconsin. Irrigated agriculture decreased maximum temperatures and increased minimum temperatures, thus shrinking the diurnal temperature range (DTR) by an average of 3°C. Irrigated agriculture also decreased the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by an average of 0.10 kPa. Irrigated agriculture significantly decreased evaporative demand for 25% and 66% of study days compared to rainfed agriculture and forest, respectively. Differences in VPD across the land-use gradient were highest (0.21 kPa) during the peak of the growing season, while differences in DTR were comparable year-round. Interannual variability in temperature had greater impacts on differences in DTR and VPD across the land-use gradient than interannual variability in precipitation. These regional climate changes must be considered together with increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes to groundwater quality, and surface water degradation when evaluating the costs and benefits of groundwater-sourced irrigation expansion in the Midwest United States and similar regions around the world.

RevDate: 2019-07-03

Yazzie JO, Fulé PZ, Kim YS, et al (2019)

Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change affects all ecosystems but despite increasing recognition for the needs to integrate Indigenous knowledge with modern climate science, the epistemological differences between the two make it challenging. In this study, we present how Indigenous belief and knowledge system can frame the application of a modeling tool (Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator). We focus on managing forest ecosystem services of the Diné (Navajo) Nation as a case study. Most Diné tribal members depend directly on the land for their livelihoods and cultural traditions. The forest plays a vital role in Diné livelihoods through social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic factors. We simulated forest dynamics over time under alternative climate change scenarios and management strategies to identify forest management strategies that will maintain future ecosystem services. We initialized the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator model with data from permanent plots and site-specific growth models under multiple management systems (no-management, thinning, burning, and assisted migration planting) and different climate scenarios (no-climate-change, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0). Projections of climate change show average losses of basal area by over 65% by 2105, a shift in tree species composition to drier-adapted species, and a decrease in species diversity. While substantial forest loss was inevitable under the warming climate scenarios, the modeling framework allowed us to evaluate the management treatments, including planting, for conserving multiple tree species in mixed conifer forests, thus providing an anchor for biodiversity. We presented the modeling results and management implications and discuss how they can complement Diné kinship concepts. Our approach is a useful step for framing modern science with Indigenous Knowledge and for developing improved strategies to sustain natural resources and livelihoods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-07-03

Mayes S, Ho WK, Chai HH, et al (2019)

Bambara groundnut: an exemplar underutilised legume for resilience under climate change.

Planta pii:10.1007/s00425-019-03191-6 [Epub ahead of print].

MAIN CONCLUSION: Bambara groundnut has the potential to be used to contribute more the climate change ready agriculture. The requirement for nitrogen fixing, stress tolerant legumes is clear, particularly in low input agriculture. However, ensuring that existing negative traits are tackled and demand is stimulated through the development of markets and products still represents a challenge to making greater use of this legume. World agriculture is currently based on very limited numbers of crops, representing a significant risk to food supplies, particularly in the face of climate change which is expected to increase the frequency of extreme events. Minor and underutilised crops can help to develop a more resilient and nutritionally dense future agriculture. Bambara groundnut [Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.[, as a drought resistant, nitrogen-fixing, legume has a role to play. However, as with most underutilised crops, there are significant gaps in knowledge and also negative traits such as 'hard-to-cook' and 'photoperiod sensitivity to pod filling' associated with the crop which future breeding programmes and processing methods need to tackle, to allow it to make a significant contribution to the well-being of future generations. The current review assesses these factors and also considers what are the next steps towards realising the potential of this crop.

RevDate: 2019-07-03

Lane SN, Bakker M, Costa A, et al (2019)

Making stratigraphy in the Anthropocene: climate change impacts and economic conditions controlling the supply of sediment to Lake Geneva.

Scientific reports, 9(1):8904 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-44914-9.

The Anthropocene has been proposed as a profound, globally synchronous rupture in the history of the Earth System with its current state fundamentally different to that of the Holocene and driven by the geological force of human activity. Here, we show how stratigraphy is being made in a lake that is heavily impacted upon by climate change and human activities. For one of the largest inner-Alpine catchments in the European Alps, we draw attention to how sedimentation rates are a product of non-stationary, reflexive, human actions. In Lake Geneva, we identify both a human-induced climate change (HCC) signature and the effects of a recent economic shock on sediment extraction upon sediment loading to and sedimentation rates in the lake. The HCC signature thus reflects the nature of climate change impacts in this basin, where sediment accumulation rates evolve with climate, but where economic conditions contribute to shifts in the supply of sediment to the lake. Following social theory, we call this glocalization because of the combined importance and inseparability of human impacts across different spatial scales. The nature of human impacts on sediment delivery to the lake mean that the influence of humans is unlikely to be captured in the long-term depositional record.

RevDate: 2019-07-03

Chersich MF, Swift CP, Edelstein I, et al (2019)

Violence in hot weather: Will climate change exacerbate rates of violence in South Africa?.

South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde, 109(7):447-449.

RevDate: 2019-07-03

Boeckmann M, Roux T, Robinson M, et al (2019)

Climate change and control of diarrhoeal diseases in South Africa: Priorities for action.

South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde, 109(6):359-361.

RevDate: 2019-07-02

Díaz J, López-Bueno JA, Sáez M, et al (2019)

Will there be cold-related mortality in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons despite the increase in temperatures as a consequence of climate change?.

Environmental research, 176:108557 pii:S0013-9351(19)30354-8 [Epub ahead of print].

INTRODUCTION: Global warming is resulting in an increase in temperatures which is set to become more marked by the end of the century and depends on the accelerating pace of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Yet even in this scenario, so-called "cold waves" will continue to be generated and have an impact on health.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to analyse the impact of cold waves on daily mortality at a provincial level in Spain over the 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 time horizons under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, on the basis of two hypotheses: (1) that the cold-wave definition temperature (T threshold) would not vary over time; and, (2) that there would be a variation in T threshold.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: The results of a retrospective study undertaken for Spain as a whole across the period 2000-2009 enabled us to ascertain the cold-wave definition temperature at a provincial level and its impact on health, measured by reference to population attributable risk (PAR). The minimum daily temperatures projected for each provincial capital considering the above time horizons and emission scenarios were provided by the State Meteorological Agency. On the basis of the T threshold definition values and minimum daily temperatures projected for each province, we calculated the expected impact of low temperatures on mortality under the above two hypotheses. Keeping the PAR values constant, it was assumed that the mortality rate would vary in accordance with the available data.

RESULTS: If T threshold remained constant over the above time horizons under both emission scenarios, there would be no cold-related mortality. If T threshold were assumed to vary over time, however, then cold-related mortality would not disappear: it would instead remain practically constant over time and give rise to an estimated overall figure of around 250 deaths per year, equivalent to close on a quarter of Spain's current annual cold-related mortality and entailing a cost of approximately €1000 million per year.

CONCLUSION: Given that cold waves are not going to disappear and that their impact on mortality is far from negligible and is likely to remain so, public health prevention measures must be implemented to minimise these effects as far as possible.

RevDate: 2019-07-02

Deeb R, Tufford D, Scott GI, et al (2018)

Impact of Climate Change on Vibrio vulnificus Abundance and Exposure Risk.

Estuaries and coasts : journal of the Estuarine Research Federation, 41(8):2289-2303.

Vibrio species are marine bacteria that occur in estuaries worldwide; many are virulent human pathogens with high levels of antibiotic resistance. The average annual incidence of all Vibrio infections has increased by 41% between 1996 and 2005. V. vulnificus (Vv), a species associated with shellfish and occurring in the US Southeast, has ranges of temperature (16-33 °C) and salinity (5-20 ppt) dependencies for optimal growth. Increased water temperatures caused by atmospheric warming and increased salinity gradients caused by sea level rise raise concerns for the effect of climate change on the geographic range of Vv and the potential for increased exposure risk. This research combined monthly field sampling, laboratory analysis, and modeling to identify the current occurrence of Vv in the Winyah Bay estuary (South Carolina, USA) and assess the possible effects of climate change on future geographic range and exposure risk in the estuary. Vv concentrations ranged from 0 to 58 colony forming units (CFU)/mL, salinities ranged from 0 to 28 ppt, and temperature from 18 to 31 °C. A significant empirical relationship was found between Vv concentration and salinity and temperature that fit well with published optimal ranges for growth for these environmental parameters. These results, when coupled with an existing model of future specific conductance, indicated that sea level rise has a greater impact on exposure risk than temperature increases in the estuary. Risk increased by as much as four times compared to current conditions with the largest temporally widespread increase at the most upriver site where currently there is minimal risk.

RevDate: 2019-07-02

Salinitro M, Alessandrini A, Zappi A, et al (2019)

Impact of climate change and urban development on the flora of a southern European city: analysis of biodiversity change over a 120-year period.

Scientific reports, 9(1):9464 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-46005-1.

Ecological studies in cities are not only aimed at investigating floristic diversity, but also represent informative test cases for understanding ecological system dynamics and responses to urban and climate changes since cities represent microcosms of environmental changes happening globally. The city of Bologna was selected as a case study since two specific and complete studies have been carried out in a 120-years timespan, one in 1894 and one in 2018. Since 1894, a large increase occurred in the number of taxa (families from 41 to 101, species from 176 to 477) and alien species (from 22 to 144), with a 65% total species turnover. The comparison of species life forms pointed out a noticeable recent expansion of phanerophytes and geophytes at the expense of therophytes and hemicryptophytes. The correlation between urbanistic features and plant richness indicated that the main factor affecting plant richness is the presence of green spaces (parks, tree lines, flowerbeds, etc.). Analysis of variation in Ellenberg's indicator values over the last 120 years evidenced a shift toward shade-tolerant species, mainly connected to the increased presence of parks and trees within the city. Climate change and the presence of artificially irrigated areas within the city has led to an increase in both hygrophilous and drought-resistant species. In particular, the temperature index showed a significantly higher amount of macrothermal species in accordance with a warmer climate and the urban heat island effect.

RevDate: 2019-07-02

Bamji AN (2019)

Climate change: overpopulation and landscape manipulation.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 366:l4423.

RevDate: 2019-07-02

Vause BJ, Morley SA, Fonseca VG, et al (2019)

Spatial and temporal dynamics of Antarctic shallow soft-bottom benthic communities: ecological drivers under climate change.

BMC ecology, 19(1):27 pii:10.1186/s12898-019-0244-x.

BACKGROUND: Marine soft sediments are some of the most widespread habitats in the ocean, playing a vital role in global carbon cycling, but are amongst the least studied with regard to species composition and ecosystem functioning. This is particularly true of the Polar Regions, which are currently undergoing rapid climate change, the impacts of which are poorly understood. Compared to other latitudes, Polar sediment habitats also experience additional environmental drivers of strong seasonality and intense disturbance from iceberg scouring, which are major structural forces for hard substratum communities. This study compared sediment assemblages from two coves, near Rothera Point, Antarctic Peninsula, 67°S in order to understand the principal drivers of community structure, for the first time, evaluating composition across all size classes from mega- to micro-fauna.

RESULTS: Morpho-taxonomy identified 77 macrofaunal species with densities of 464-16,084 individuals m-2. eDNA metabarcoding of microfauna, in summer only, identified a higher diversity, 189 metazoan amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) using the 18S ribosomal RNA and 249 metazoan ASVs using the mitochondrial COI gene. Both techniques recorded a greater taxonomic diversity in South Cove than Hangar Cove, with differences in communities between the coves, although the main taxonomic drivers varied between techniques. Morphotaxonomy identified the main differences between coves as the mollusc, Altenaeum charcoti, the cnidarian Edwardsia sp. and the polychaetes from the family cirratulidae. Metabarcoding identified greater numbers of species of nematodes, crustaceans and Platyhelminthes in South Cove, but more bivalve species in Hangar Cove. There were no detectable differences in community composition, measured through morphotaxonomy, between seasons, years or due to iceberg disturbance.

CONCLUSIONS: This study found that unlike hard substratum communities the diversity of Antarctic soft sediment communities is correlated with the same factors as other latitudes. Diversity was significantly correlated with grain size and organic content, not iceberg scour. The increase in glacial sediment input as glaciers melt, may therefore be more important than increased iceberg disturbance.

RevDate: 2019-07-01

Belfer E, Ford JD, M Maillet (2017)

Representation of Indigenous peoples in climate change reporting.

Climatic change, 145(1):57-70.

This article examines how newspapers reporting on climate change have covered and framed Indigenous peoples. Focusing on eight newspapers in Canada, the USA, Australia, and New Zealand, we examine articles published from 1995 to 2015, and analyze them using content and framing analyses. The impacts of climate change are portrayed as having severe ecological, sociocultural, and health/safety impacts for Indigenous peoples, who are often framed as victims and "harbingers" of climate change. There is a strong focus on stories reporting on the Arctic. The lack of substantive discussion of colonialism or marginalization in the reviewed stories limits media portrayal of the structural roots of vulnerability, rendering climate change as a problem for, rather than of society. Indigenous and traditional knowledge is widely discussed, but principally as a means of corroborating scientific knowledge, or in accordance with romanticized portrayals of Indigenous peoples. Widespread disparities in the volume, content, and framing of coverage are also observed across the four nations.

RevDate: 2019-07-01

Vega A, L Castro (2019)

Impact of climate change on insect-human interactions.

Current opinion in allergy and clinical immunology [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To update the influence of the global climate change on Hymenoptera venom allergy.

RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change facilitates biological invasions of hymenopteran species and plays a role in the impact of introduced species relevant for human health. It contributes to a rise in the incidence of sting injuries and allergy reactions across the world.

SUMMARY: Global climate change has contributed to the expansion and the redistribution of allergenic insect species, increasing the number of allergy cases caused by stinging insects worldwide. Imported insects are trending species in systemic reactions for multiple stings or hymenopteran venom allergy. They represent a threat for humans and a challenge for the allergists.

RevDate: 2019-07-01

Flynn M, Ford JD, Labbé J, et al (2019)

Evaluating the effectiveness of hazard mapping as climate change adaptation for community planning in degrading permafrost terrain.

Sustainability science, 14(4):1041-1056.

Permafrost in northern Canada is susceptible to degradation due to rapid climate change, with hazard mapping promoted as an important activity to guide sustainable community adaptation and planning. This paper presents a framework for evaluating permafrost mapping exercises designed to inform climate change adaptation actions. We apply the framework using a case study of the Incorporating Climate Change into Land Development-Terrain Analysis project (ICCiLD). ICCiLD is a hazard mapping project utilizing interferometric synthetic aperture radar to monitor ground disturbance and categorize land development suitability in seven communities in the territory of Nunavut, Canada. We looked at one of the communities, Arviat, as our case study. We examined technical data and drew upon semi-structured interviews (n = 19) with map creators and users. We found ICCiLD added new and relevant information for community planning, increased awareness of the risks posed by permafrost thaw and built stakeholder relations. Strong coordination and high public consciousness of local climate impacts emerged as key factors underpinning project success. Nevertheless, in the case of Arviat, the effectiveness of the hazard maps in influencing land-use planning was constrained by communication challenges between project creators and end-users. These challenges included limited community access to the data and uncertainty surrounding how to operationalize the map suitability classifications. Broader climate change adaptation challenges included the presence of other more immediate community planning priorities and a limited ability to incorporate Indigenous ways of knowing into a technical mapping project. The lessons from this evaluation provide insight for the development of mapping-based adaptations across Arctic regions.

RevDate: 2019-07-01

Borghi M, de Souza LP, Yoshida T, et al (2019)

Flowers and climate change: a metabolic perspective.

The New phytologist [Epub ahead of print].

Adverse climatic conditions at the time of flowering severely hinder crop yields and threaten the interactions between plants and their pollinators. These features depend on a common trait: the metabolism of flowers. Here, we want to draw attention on the metabolic changes that occur in flowers in response to a change in climate and emphasize that these modifications severely impact the fitness of autogamous and allogamous species, plant-pollinator interactions, as well as ecosystems. In this Viewpoint, we reviewed the biochemical processes that lead to failure of gamete development and to alterations of color, scent, and nectar secretion. Then, making use of open access expression data, we looked at the expression of genes that may drive these changes in response to heat and drought. Finally, we measured metabolites in flowers exposed to a heat wave and discussed how the results of this short-term experiment can give rise to misleading conclusions for the positive effect of heat on flower fitness. With this, we hope to raise attention on this often neglected topic and the consequences that it entails. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-06-30

Eisenach C (2019)

How Plants Respond to Climate Change. A new Virtual Special Issue of Plant, Cell & Environment.

Plant, cell & environment [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-06-30

Yu TK, Chang YJ, Chang IC, et al (2019)

A pro-environmental behavior model for investigating the roles of social norm, risk perception, and place attachment on adaptation strategies of climate change.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-05806-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Today's climate change is a major problem and challenge for the global environment and human civilization, and it can lead to dramatical floods over specific regions. As climate change intensifies, climate change adaptation strategies, such as flood insurance, energy taxes, and other risky financial strategies, have drawn worldwide attention and discussion. Risk control methods have been widely used to mitigate the impact of climate change on past flood losses, but past risk control strategies on climate change have not focused on the exploration of the relationship between environment, society, and humans. Based on the theoretical model of pro-environmental behavior, this study compares and analyzes four theoretical models and proposes a modified competitiveness model to effectively predict the pro-environmental behavior of college students with partial least squares (PLS) manner. Social norm could play a dominant role of mediator between risk perception, place attachment, and pro-environmental behavior. Although risk perception and local attachment are positively related to risk financial strategy, the promotion of social norms will increase the intention of risk financial strategy. For intention of risk financial strategies within pro-environmental behavior, the efficiency of enhancing local attachment was higher than that of risk perception.

RevDate: 2019-06-30

Yu TK, Lin FY, Kao KY, et al (2019)

An innovative environmental citizen behavior model: Recycling intention as climate change mitigation strategies.

Journal of environmental management, 247:499-508 pii:S0301-4797(19)30902-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has been led to the increasing magnitude of frequency and severity of extreme weather, causing serious damage to overall economy of a country and individual economy of enterprises. Only relying on government subsidy to combat the impact of climate change, the work could be in vain. This study tries to use recycling action as mitigation strategies of climate change, and analyze the dominant influencing factors that affect recycling intention. This study stands in the perspective of green education in universities, regards the recycling intentions in response to climate change as pro-environmental behaviors, and revises and verifies the citizen pro-environmental behavior model. The green educations programs can communicate, promote, active and internalize the environmental citizenship through resource recycling intentions. Students learn about the importance of advocacy and activism to environmental citizenship, then generate environmentally sustainable and recycling intentions, and achieve the goal of improving the environment and mitigating to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-06-29

O'Connor D, Zheng X, Hou D, et al (2019)

Phytoremediation: Climate change resilience and sustainability assessment at a coastal brownfield redevelopment.

Environment international, 130:104945 pii:S0160-4120(19)31094-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Phytoremediation offers a nature based solution (NBS) for contaminated soil remediation; however, its application under a brownfield redevelopment context has not been well studied. Moreover, climate change could impact large numbers of contaminated sites, yet there remains little research on the potential impacts for remediation. This study examined phytoremediation at a brownfield redevelopment in the San Francisco Bay area, where thousands of cleanup sites are vulnerable to rising sea levels. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to determine both primary and secondary impacts and the system's resilience to various sea level scenarios and hydroclimatic conditions was investigated. It was found that the phytoremediation project rendered only a small environmental footprint, and was associated with low cost and substantial socioeconomic benefits. For instance, it fitted well with the site redevelopment setting by offering attractive landscape features. Moreover, under a modeled moderate sea level rise scenario, the groundwater hydraulic gradient at the site decreased, which was coupled with greater natural biodegradation and reduced plume migration, and, therefore, lower life cycle impact. There was also minimal increase in the vapor intrusion risk with increased sea level. Overall, phytoremediation at the site was found to be resilient to a moderate sea level rise and other hydroclimatic effects induced by climate change. However, the system performance responded to increasing sea level rise in a non-linear manner. Under a high sea level rise scenario, the system is predicted to perform abruptly worse.

RevDate: 2019-06-29

Miller LP, WW Dowd (2019)

Repeatable patterns of small-scale spatial variation in intertidal mussel beds and their implications for responses to climate change.

Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular & integrative physiology pii:S1095-6433(19)30169-2 [Epub ahead of print].

The interaction of ocean conditions and weather with small-scale physical features of a habitat can have profound effects on the experiences of individual organisms. On topographically complex shorelines, and particularly within dense aggregations of organisms such as mussel beds, a mosaic of environmental conditions can develop, and the resulting variation in conditions within the aggregation could drastically alter the performance of neighboring individuals. Using a suite of sensors mounted to individual Mytilus californianus mussels over two summer field deployments, we have characterized the temperature variation and valve gaping behavior differences found at two spatial scales: within a group separated by centimeters, and between groups of mussels located at the upper and lower extents of the natural mussel zone separated by meters. While temperature conditions near the lower edge of the mussel bed were generally more benign, temperature extremes were similar at both heights in the bed, and variation in body temperature among neighbors increased as the daily mean temperature increased. These patterns were similar across years despite a 3.8 °C difference in mean air and seawater temperatures between years. Gaping behavior was also highly variable among individuals, though that variability diminished at the high end of the mussel bed where the total time mussels spent submerged was much more constrained. These data indicate that an individual mussel's physiological status and past history can be drastically different than those of its nearby neighbors, complicating our ability to characterize representative conditions within a habitat. These observations also provide for the possibility that the impacts of future climate change will be highly specific to certain individuals based on their relative exposure or protection within the mosaic. To address such possibilities, future work must examine the correlation between genotypic and physiological traits that determine performance and individuals' unique experiences in their disparate micro-environments.

RevDate: 2019-06-28

Wijesiri B, Liu A, Hong N, et al (2019)

Rethinking hydrocarbons build-up on urban roads: A perspective on volatilisation under global warming scenarios.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987), 252(Pt B):950-959 pii:S0269-7491(19)31703-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Stormwater is viewed as an alternative resource to mitigate water shortages. However, stormwater reuse is constrained due to the presence of many toxic pollutants such as hydrocarbons. Effective mitigation requires robust mathematical models for stormwater quality prediction based on an understanding of pollutant processes. However, the rise in global temperatures will impose changes to pollutant processes. This study has proposed a new perspective on modelling the build-up process of hydrocarbons, with a focus on volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Among organic compounds, VOCs are the most susceptible to changes as a result of global warming due to their volatility. Seven VOCs, namely, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, para-xylene, meta-xylene, ortho-xylene and styrene in road dust were investigated. The outcomes are expected to lay the foundation to overcoming the limitations in current modelling approaches such as not considering the influence of temperature and volatility, on the build-up process. A new conceptualisation is proposed for the classical build-up model by mathematically defining the volatility of VOCs in terms of temperature. Uncertainty in the re-conceptualised build-up model was quantified and was used to understand the build-up patterns in the future scenarios of global warming. Results indicated that for the likely scenarios, the variability in VOCs build-up gradually increases at the beginning of the dry period and then rapidly increases after around seven days, while the build-up reaches a near-constant value in a shorter dry period, limiting the variability. These initial research outcomes need to be further investigated given the expected impacts of global warming into the future.

RevDate: 2019-06-28

Levin DA (2019)

Plant Speciation in the Age of Climate Change.

Annals of botany pii:5524583 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Species diversity is likely to undergo a sharp decline in the next century. Perhaps as many as 33% of all plant species may expire as a result of climate change (Pimm and Joppa, 2015; Ceballos et al. 2015). All parts of the globe will be impacted; and all groups of organisms will be affected. Hundreds of species throughout the world have already experienced local extinction.

PERSPECTIVES: While thousands of species may go extinct in the next century and beyond, species formation will still occur. I consider which modes of plant species formation are likely to prevail in the next 500 years. I argue that speciation primarily will involve mechanisms that produce reproductively isolated lineages within less (often much less) than 100 generations. I will not specially consider the human element in promoting species formation, because it will continue and because the conclusions presented here are unaffected by it. The impact of climate change may be much more severe and widespread.

CONCLUSIONS: The most common modes of speciation likely to be operative in the next 500 years ostensibly will be auto- and allopolyploidy. Polyploid species or the antecedents thereof can arise within two generations. Moreover, polyploids often have broader ecological tolerances, and are likely to be more invasive than are their diploid relatives. Polyploid species may themselves spawn additional higher level polyploids either through crosses with diploid species or between preexisting polyploids. The percentage of polyploid species is likely to exceed 50% within the next 500 years vs. 35% today. The stabilized hybrid derivatives (homoploid hybrid speciation) could emerge within a hundred generations after species contact, as could speciation involving chromosomal rearrangements (and perhaps number), but the number of such events is likely to be low. Speciation involving lineage splitting will be infrequent because the formation of substantive pre- and post-zygotic barriers typically takes many thousands of years.

RevDate: 2019-06-28

Liu-Helmersson J, Brännström Å, Sewe MO, et al (2019)

Estimating Past, Present, and Future Trends in the Global Distribution and Abundance of the Arbovirus Vector Aedes aegypti Under Climate Change Scenarios.

Frontiers in public health, 7:148.

Background:Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for several important arbovirus diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. While recent empirical research has attempted to identify the current global distribution of the vector, the seasonal, and longer-term dynamics of the mosquito in response to trends in climate, population, and economic development over the twentieth and the twenty-first century remains to be elucidated. Methods: In this study, we use a process-based mathematical model to estimate global vector distribution and abundance. The model is based on the lifecycle of the vector and its dependence on climate, and the model sensitivity to socio-economic development is tested. Model parameters were generally empirically based, and the model was calibrated to global databases and time series of occurrence and abundance records. Climate data on temperature and rainfall were taken from CRU TS3.25 (1901-2015) and five global circulation models (CMIP5; 2006-2099) forced by a high-end (RCP8.5) and a low-end (RCP2.6) emission scenario. Socio-economic data on global GDP and human population density were from ISIMIP (1950-2099). Findings: The change in the potential of global abundance in A. aegypti over the last century up to today is estimated to be an increase of 9.5% globally and a further increase of 20 or 30% by the end of this century under a low compared to a high carbon emission future, respectively. The largest increase has occurred in the last two decades, indicating a tipping point in climate-driven global abundance which will be stabilized at the earliest in the mid-twenty-first century. The realized abundance is estimated to be sensitive to socioeconomic development. Interpretation: Our data indicate that climate change mitigation, i.e., following the Paris Agreement, could considerably help in suppressing risks of increased abundance and emergence of A. aegypti globally in the second half of the twenty-first century.

RevDate: 2019-06-28

Morgan R, Sundin J, Finnøen MH, et al (2019)

Are model organisms representative for climate change research? Testing thermal tolerance in wild and laboratory zebrafish populations.

Conservation physiology, 7(1):coz036 pii:coz036.

Model organisms can be useful for studying climate change impacts, but it is unclear whether domestication to laboratory conditions has altered their thermal tolerance and therefore how representative of wild populations they are. Zebrafish in the wild live in fluctuating thermal environments that potentially reach harmful temperatures. In the laboratory, zebrafish have gone through four decades of domestication and adaptation to stable optimal temperatures with few thermal extremes. If maintaining thermal tolerance is costly or if genetic traits promoting laboratory fitness at optimal temperature differ from genetic traits for high thermal tolerance, the thermal tolerance of laboratory zebrafish could be hypothesized to be lower than that of wild zebrafish. Furthermore, very little is known about the thermal environment of wild zebrafish and how close to their thermal limits they live. Here, we compared the acute upper thermal tolerance (critical thermal maxima; CTmax) of wild zebrafish measured on-site in West Bengal, India, to zebrafish at three laboratory acclimation/domestication levels: wild-caught, F1 generation wild-caught and domesticated laboratory AB-WT line. We found that in the wild, CTmax increased with increasing site temperature. Yet at the warmest site, zebrafish lived very close to their thermal limit, suggesting that they may currently encounter lethal temperatures. In the laboratory, acclimation temperature appeared to have a stronger effect on CTmax than it did in the wild. The fish in the wild also had a 0.85-1.01°C lower CTmax compared to all laboratory populations. This difference between laboratory-held and wild populations shows that environmental conditions can affect zebrafish's thermal tolerance. However, there was no difference in CTmax between the laboratory-held populations regardless of the domestication duration. This suggests that thermal tolerance is maintained during domestication and highlights that experiments using domesticated laboratory-reared model species can be appropriate for addressing certain questions on thermal tolerance and global warming impacts.

RevDate: 2019-06-28

Lawson E (2019)

Debrief: Meeting the climate change challenge.

The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 69(684):343.

RevDate: 2019-06-27

Van der Fels-Klerx HJ, Vermeulen LC, Gavai AK, et al (2019)

Climate change impacts on aflatoxin B1 in maize and aflatoxin M1 in milk: A case study of maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands.

PloS one, 14(6):e0218956 pii:PONE-D-18-34800.

Various models and datasets related to aflatoxins in the maize and dairy production chain have been developed and used but they have not yet been linked with each other. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on aflatoxin B1 production in maize and its consequences on aflatoxin M1 contamination in dairy cow's milk, using a full chain modelling approach. To this end, available models and input data were chained together in a modelling framework. As a case study, we focused on maize grown in Eastern Europe and imported to the Netherlands to be fed-as part of dairy cows' compound feed-to dairy cows in the Netherlands. Three different climate models, one aflatoxin B1 prediction model and five different carryover models were used. For this particular case study of East European maize, most of the calculations suggest an increase (up to 50%) of maximum mean aflatoxin M1 in milk by 2030, except for one climate (DMI) model suggesting a decrease. Results from all combinations of carryover and climate models suggest a similar or slight increase (up to 0.6%) of the chance of finding aflatoxin M1 in milk above the EC limit of 0.05 μg/kg by 2030. Results varied mainly with the climate model data and carryover model considered. The model framework infrastructure is flexible so that forecasting models for other mycotoxins or other food safety hazards as well as other production chains, together with necessary input databases, can easily be included as well. This modelling framework for the first time links datasets and models related to aflatoxin B1 in maize and related aflatoxin M1 the dairy production chain to obtain a unique predictive methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. Such an integrated approach with scenario analysis provides possibilities for policy makers and risk managers to study the effects of changes in the beginning of the chain on the end product.

RevDate: 2019-06-27

Vahdati K, Massah Bavani AR, Khosh-Khui M, et al (2019)

Applying the AOGCM-AR5 models to the assessments of land suitability for walnut cultivation in response to climate change: A case study of Iran.

PloS one, 14(6):e0218725 pii:PONE-D-18-33538.

Due to higher temperatures and lower water availability, climate change is likely to have a major impact on walnut production in the near future. Climate change will alter the land suitability for walnut cultivation around the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions like Iran. Here, land suitability for the cultivation of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Iran was determined using the GIS for present and future conditions (2020-2049) with an approach to climate change. Accordingly, data from 375 synoptic stations throughout Iran were gathered for climatic factors including average, minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity and chilling requirement. Also, ASTER sensors (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) and their data provided this research with cells that make a precision of 150 m (5 s), and the data were used for gauging geological parameters such as altitude and land slope. The electrical conductivity (EC) of soil and water were informed by the data bank of the Iranian Water Resources Management. The results of temperature simulations for the future (2020-2049) were analyzed by 21 AOGCM-AR5 models under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In the first phase of evaluations, the maps of land suitability were constructed for present conditions by considering a network of the above-mentioned parameters. By combining these layers of information, the final map of land suitability was illustrated for walnut cultivation. In the second phase, the NEX-GDDP was used in order to determine land suitability for the future (2020-2049). The results showed that Iran currently has 582844 km2 of land suitable for walnut cultivation. However, the future will see less suitable lands: the current area will be reduced by 6.19%, from 582844 km2 to 546710 km2. In general, the northern, northwestern and western margins of Iran are currently suitable for walnut cultivation. By approximation, these lands will also be major areas for prospective cultivations of walnut in the future (2020-2049), even though their current stretch will be reduced.

RevDate: 2019-06-27

Kalcic MM, Muenich RL, Basile S, et al (2019)

Climate Change and Nutrient Loading in the Western Lake Erie Basin: Warming Can Counteract a Wetter Future.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

In the past 20 years, Lake Erie has experienced a resurgence of harmful algal blooms and hypoxia driven by increased nutrient loading from its agriculturally dominated watersheds. The increase in phosphorus loading, specifically the dissolved reactive portion, has been attributed to a combination of changing climate and agricultural management. While many management practices and strategies have been identified to reduce phosphorus loads, the impacts of future climate remain uncertain. This is particularly the case for the Great Lakes region because many global climate models do not accurately represent the land-lake interactions that govern regional climate. For this study, we used midcentury (2046-2065) climate projections from one global model and four regional dynamically downscaled models as drivers for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool configured for the Maumee River watershed, the source of almost 50% of Lake Erie's Western Basin phosphorus load. Our findings suggest that future warming may lead to less nutrient runoff due to increased evapotranspiration and decreased snowfall, despite projected moderate increases in intensity and overall amount of precipitation. Results highlight the benefits of considering multiple environmental drivers in determining the fate of nutrients in the environment and demonstrate a need to improve approaches for climate change assessment using watershed models.

RevDate: 2019-06-27

Eaton MJ, Yurek S, Haider Z, et al (2019)

Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty: adapting to climate change risks using modern portfolio theory.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application to conservation of risk management theory emphasizes diversification of portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the impact of system volatility on investment return. We use principles of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which quantifies risk as the variance and correlation among assets, to formalize diversification as an explicit strategy for managing risk in climate-driven reserve design. We extend MPT to specify a framework that evaluates multiple conservation objectives, allows decision makers to balance management benefits and risk when preferences are contested or unknown, and includes additional decision options such as parcel divestment when evaluating candidate reserve designs. We apply an efficient search algorithm that optimizes portfolio design for large conservation problems and a game theoretic approach to evaluate portfolio tradeoffs that satisfy decision makers with divergent benefit and risk tolerances, or when a single decision maker cannot resolve their own preferences. Evaluating several risk profiles for a case study in South Carolina, our results suggest that a reserve design may be somewhat robust to differences in risk attitude but that budgets will likely be important determinants of conservation planning strategies, particularly when divestment is considered a viable alternative. We identify a possible fiscal threshold where adequate resources allow protecting a sufficiently diverse portfolio of habitats such that the risk of failing to achieve conservation objectives is considerably lower. For a range of sea-level rise projections, conversion of habitat to open water (14-180%) and wetland loss (1-7%) are unable to be compensated under the current protected network. In contrast, optimal reserve design outcomes are predicted to ameliorate expected losses relative to current and future habitat protected under the existing conservation estate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-06-26

Vione D, A Scozzaro (2019)

Photochemistry of Surface Fresh Waters in the Framework of Climate Change.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Photochemical processes taking place in surface fresh waters play an important role in the transformation of biorecalcitrant pollutants and some natural compounds and in the inactivation of microorganisms. Such processes are divided into direct photolysis, where a molecule is transformed following sunlight absorption, and indirect photochemistry, where naturally occurring photosensitizers absorb sunlight and produce a range of transient species that can transform dissolved molecules (or inactivate microorganisms). Photochemistry is usually favored in thoroughly illuminated shallow waters, while the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) acts as a switch between different photochemical pathways (direct photolysis, and indirect photochemistry triggered by different transient species). Various phenomena connected with climate change (water browning, changing precipitations) may affect water DOC and water depth, with implications for the kinetics of photoreactions and the associated transformation pathways. The latter are important because they often produce peculiar intermediates, with particular health and environmental impacts. Further climate-induced effects with photochemical implications are shorter ice-cover seasons and enhanced duration of summer stratification in lakes, as well as changes in the flow velocity of rivers that affect the photodegradation time scale. This contribution aims at showing how the different climate-related phenomena can affect photoreactions and which approaches can be followed to quantitatively describe these variations.

RevDate: 2019-06-26

Vesely FM, Paleari L, Movedi E, et al (2019)

Quantifying Uncertainty Due to Stochastic Weather Generators in Climate Change Impact Studies.

Scientific reports, 9(1):9258 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-45745-4.

Climate change studies involve complex processes translating coarse climate change projections in locally meaningful terms. We analysed the behaviour of weather generators while downscaling precipitation and air temperature data. With multiple climate indices and alternative weather generators, we directly quantified the uncertainty associated with using weather generators when site specific downscaling is performed. We extracted the influence of weather generators on climate variability at local scale and the uncertainty that could affect impact assessment. For that, we first designed the downscaling experiments with three weather generators (CLIMAK, LARS-WG, WeaGETS) to interpret future projections. Then we assessed the impacts of estimated changes of precipitation and air temperature for a sample of 15 sites worldwide using a rice yield model and an extended set of climate metrics. We demonstrated that the choice of a weather generator in the downscaling process may have a higher impact on crop yield estimates than the climate scenario adopted. Should they be confirmed, these results would indicate that widely accepted outcomes of climate change studies using this downscaling technique need reconsideration.

RevDate: 2019-06-26

Ranasinghe R, Wu CS, Conallin J, et al (2019)

Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on fluvial sediment supply to the coast by the world's large rivers: Pearl River Basin, China.

Scientific reports, 9(1):9236 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-45442-2.

The world's large rivers are under stress and experiencing unprecedented changes in hydrology, ecosystems, and fluvial sediment loads. Many of these rivers terminate at the great deltas of the world (home to 500 million people), which depend on fluvial sediments for their very existence. While fluvial sediment loads of large rivers have already been greatly modified by human activities, climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation. But how does the effect of climate change on fluvial sediment loads compare with that of human impacts? Here, we address this question by combining historical observations and 21st century projections for one of the world's largest 25 rivers containing two mega dams; Pearl River, China. Our analysis shows that variations in fluvial sediment supply to the coast from the Pearl river over a ~150 year study period are dominated by human activities. Projected climate change driven 21st century increases in riverflow will only compensate for about 1% of the human induced deficit in sediment load, leading to the coastal zone being starved of about 6000 Mt of sediment over the remainder of this century. A similar dominance of human impacts on fluvial sediment supply is likely at other heavily engineered rivers.

RevDate: 2019-06-25

Kavousi J (2019)

Biological interactions: The overlooked aspects of marine climate change refugia.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change refugia are currently considered an inseparable part of biological conservation in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems. However, our understanding of marine refugia effectiveness remains limited despite many valuable efforts made in recent years. Certain studies have suggested criteria to assess potential marine climate change refugia (e.g., Kavousi & Keppel, 2018), while others proposed specific refugia to conserve (e.g. Cacciapaglia & van Woesik, 2016 and references therein). While I acknowledge that determining the most effective marine climate change refugia is an urgent necessary action to protect marine biota, I propose that ruling out biological interactions may result in far less accurate estimations of the effectiveness of potential long-term refugia and short-term refuges (defined by Keppel et al., 2012) for marine species, which could subsequently lead to overly optimistic ecosystem management strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-06-25

Garnier M, I Holman (2019)

Critical Review of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Vulnerability of European Drinking Water Resources to the Pressures of Climate Change.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01184-5 [Epub ahead of print].

One of the consequences of the generally agreed rise of global temperatures, furtherly exacerbated by the growth of water demand caused by the needs of a growing population, is an increase of areas with water stress. This will imply and in part is already implying, an always greater imbalance between water (and in particular drinking water) demand and supply. These issues are among those investigated by the "Adapting Drinking Water resources to the Impacts of Climate change in Europe" (ADWICE) project that had, among its main goals, the identification of priority adaptation measures aimed at reducing drinking water vulnerability to the pressures of a changing climate. In this paper these adaptation measures are described, with special attention given to their associated European water policy context. The complexity of designing and implementing such adaptation measures will benefit from integrating drinking water concerns with wider water management, within a framework able to facilitate the necessary complex collaborations between various actors involved in the different scales of the decision-making arena and to develop an effective science policy interfacing mechanism. Last, but not least, because drinking water is commonly considered by stakeholders and citizens to be a public service, drinking water managers should enable their involvement in the adaptation decision-making process, to ensure their acceptance and cooperation and to prevent conflicts.

RevDate: 2019-06-25

Ji NN, Gao C, Sandel B, et al (2019)

Late Quaternary climate change explains soil fungal community composition rather than fungal richness in forest ecosystems.

Ecology and evolution, 9(11):6678-6692 pii:ECE35247.

The dramatic climate fluctuations of the late Quaternary have influenced the diversity and composition of macroorganism communities, but how they structure belowground microbial communities is less well known. Fungi constitute an important component of soil microorganism communities. They play an important role in biodiversity maintenance, community assembly, and ecosystem functioning, and differ from many macroorganisms in many traits. Here, we examined soil fungal communities in Chinese temperate, subtropical, and tropic forests using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the fungal ITS1 region. The relative effect of late Quaternary climate change and contemporary environment (plant, soil, current climate, and geographic distance) on the soil fungal community was analyzed. The richness of the total fungal community, along with saprotrophic, ectomycorrhizal (EM), and pathogenic fungal communities, was influenced primarily by the contemporary environment (plant and/or soil) but not by late Quaternary climate change. Late Quaternary climate change acted in concert with the contemporary environment to shape total, saprotrophic, EM, and pathogenic fungal community compositions and with a stronger effect in temperate forest than in tropic-subtropical forest ecosystems. Some contemporary environmental factors influencing total, saprotrophic, EM, and pathogenic fungal communities in temperate and tropic-subtropical forests were different. We demonstrate that late Quaternary climate change can help to explain current soil fungal community composition and argue that climatic legacies can help to predict soil fungal responses to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-06-25

Shepherd TG (2019)

Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information.

Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 475(2225):20190013.

Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way, the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure-most of which are highly uncertain-the societally relevant question is not 'What will happen?' but rather 'What is the impact of particular actions under an uncertain regional climate change?' This reframing of the question can cut the Gordian knot of regional climate change information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties-something that is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the storyline approach to climate change-the identification of physically self-consistent, plausible pathways-has the potential to accomplish precisely this.

RevDate: 2019-06-26

van Ruijven BJ, De Cian E, I Sue Wing (2019)

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change.

Nature communications, 10(1):2762 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-10399-3.

Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25-58% (11-27%), on top of a factor 1.7-2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand.

RevDate: 2019-06-23

Carvalho SB, Torres J, Tarroso P, et al (2019)

Genes on the edge: a framework to detect genetic diversity imperiled by climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Ongoing global warming is disrupting several ecological and evolutionary processes, spanning different levels of biological organization. Species are expected to shift their ranges as a response to climate change, with relevant implications to peripheral populations at the trailing and leading edges. Several studies have analyzed the exposure of species to climate change but few have explored exposure at the intra-specific level. We introduce a framework to forecast exposure to climate change at the intra-specific level. We build on existing methods by combining correlative species distribution models, a model of species range dynamics and a model of phylogeographic interpolation. We demonstrate the framework by applying it to 20 Iberian amphibian and reptile species. Our aims were: 1) Identify which species and intra-specific lineages will be most exposed to future climate change; 2) test if nucleotide diversity at the edges of species ranges are significant higher or lower than on the overall range; 3) analyze if areas of higher species gain, loss and turnover coincide with those predicted for lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. We found that about 80% of the studied species are predicted to contract their range. Within each species, some lineages were predicted to contract their range, while others were predicted to maintain or expand it. Therefore, estimating the impacts of climate change at the species level only can underestimate losses at the intra-specific level. Some species had significant high amount of nucleotide at the trailing or leading edge, or both, but we did not find a consistent pattern across species. Spatial patterns of species richness, gain, loss and turnover, were fairly concurrent with lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. Our results support the need for increased attention to intra-specific diversity regarding monitoring and conservation strategies under climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-06-22

Khafaie MA, Sayyah M, F Rahim (2019)

Extreme pollution, climate change, and depression.

RevDate: 2019-06-22

Lewandowsky S, Cook J, Fay N, et al (2019)

Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus.

Memory & cognition pii:10.3758/s13421-019-00948-y [Epub ahead of print].

Internet blogs have become an important platform for the discussion of many scientific issues, including climate change. Blogs, and in particular the comment sections of blogs, also play a major role in the dissemination of contrarian positions that question mainstream climate science. The effect of this content on people's attitudes is not fully understood. In particular, it is unknown how the interaction between the content of blog posts and blog comments affects readers' attitudes. We report an experiment that orthogonally varied those two variables using blog posts and comments that either did, or did not, support the scientific consensus on climate change. We find that beliefs are partially shaped by readers' perception of how widely an opinion expressed in a blog post appears to be shared by other readers. The perceived social consensus among readers, in turn, is determined by whether blog comments endorse or reject the contents of a post. When comments reject the content, perceived reader consensus is lower than when comments endorse the content. The results underscore the importance of perceived social consensus on opinion formation.

RevDate: 2019-06-22

Zhu W, Yao N, Guo Q, et al (2019)

Public risk perception and willingness to mitigate climate change: city smog as an example.

Environmental geochemistry and health pii:10.1007/s10653-019-00355-x [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change harms people's health and ecosystems. Encouraging the public to adopt behaviors that help to combat climate change can, at the same time, contribute to efforts to control and solve related serious environmental problems. This study aims to ascertain the way in which the public perceives risks related to climate change and adopts behaviors to respond to the issue. Using city smog as an example, this study proposes a conceptual model that integrates the theory of planned behavior (TPB), smog knowledge and risk perception. It aims to elucidate determinants of smog-reduction behavior. Data were obtained through questionnaire surveys. The results confirm the relationships among the core variables of the TPB and risk perception. Firstly, they confirm that TPB is an effective model for predicting responses to city smog, and secondly, they show that risk perception is significantly positive in predicting attitude and behavioral intention. In addition, our analysis confirms that knowledge about smog is a positive antecedent variable in risk perception, attitude, and perceived behavioral control. The paper contributes to the extension of the TPB model and to the enrichment of its application in the context of city smog. It also has practical implications both for people experiencing city smog, and for authorities such as local governments and environmental organizations. Governments and organizations need to make efforts to spread information concerning the harmful effects of city smog, because in doing so they can strengthen people's intention to participate in smog-reduction behavior.

RevDate: 2019-06-21

Lienhardt T, Black K, Saget S, et al (2019)

Just the tonic! Legume biorefining for alcohol has the potential to reduce Europe's protein deficit and mitigate climate change.

Environment international, 130:104870 pii:S0160-4120(19)30877-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Industrialised agriculture is heavily reliant upon synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and imported protein feeds, posing environmental and food security challenges. Increasing the cultivation of leguminous crops that biologically fix nitrogen and provide high protein feed and food could help to address these challenges. We report on the innovative use of an important leguminous crop, pea (Pisum sativum L.), as a source of starch for alcohol (gin) production, yielding protein-rich animal feed as a co-product. We undertook life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the environmental footprint of 1 L of packaged gin produced from either 1.43 kg of wheat grain or 2.42 kg of peas via fermentation and distillation into neutral spirit. Allocated environmental footprints for pea-gin were smaller than for wheat-gin across 12 of 14 environmental impact categories considered. Global warming, resource depletion, human toxicity, acidification and terrestrial eutrophication footprints were, respectively, 12%, 15%, 15%, 48% and 68% smaller, but direct land occupation was 112% greater, for pea-gin versus wheat-gin. Expansion of LCA boundaries indicated that co-products arising from the production of 1 L of wheat- or pea-gin could substitute up to 0.33 or 0.66 kg soybean animal feed, respectively, mitigating considerable greenhouse gas emissions associated with land clearing, cultivation, processing and transport of such feed. For pea-gin, this mitigation effect exceeds emissions from gin production and packaging, so that each L of bottled pea gin avoids 2.2 kg CO2 eq. There is great potential to scale the use of legume starches in production of alcoholic beverages and biofuels, reducing dependence on Latin American soybean associated with deforestation and offering considerable global mitigation potential in terms of climate change and nutrient leakage - estimated at circa 439 Tg CO2 eq. and 8.45 Tg N eq. annually.

RevDate: 2019-06-21

Montero N, Tomillo PS, Saba VS, et al (2019)

Effects of local climate on loggerhead hatchling production in Brazil: Implications from climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):8861 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-45366-x.

Sea turtle eggs are heavily influenced by the environment in which they incubate, including effects on hatching success and hatchling viability (hatchling production). It is crucial to understand how the hatchling production of sea turtles is influenced by local climate and how potential changes in climate may impact future hatchling production. Generalized Additive Models were used to determine the relationship of six climatic variables at different temporal scales on loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchling production at seventeen nesting beaches in Bahia, Espirito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using extreme and conservative climate change scenarios throughout the 21st century, potential impacts on future hatching success (the number of hatched eggs in a nest) were predicted using the climatic variable(s) that best described hatchling production at each nesting beach. Air temperature and precipitation were found to be the main drivers of hatchling production throughout Brazil. CMIP5 climate projections are for a warming of air temperature at all sites throughout the 21st century, while projections for precipitation vary regionally. The more tropical nesting beaches in Brazil, such as those in Bahia, are projected to experience declines in hatchling production, while the more temperate nesting beaches, such as those in Rio de Janeiro, are projected to experience increases in hatchling production by the end of the 21st century.

RevDate: 2019-06-21

Zhang H, Huo S, Yeager KM, et al (2019)

Apparent relationships between anthropogenic factors and climate change indicators and POPs deposition in a lacustrine system.

Journal of environmental sciences (China), 83:174-182.

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to impact the environmental behaviors and fates of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), however, quantitative studies on these combined factors are scarce. In this study, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDTs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were used as examples to identify how and when those factors may be related to the deposition of POPs in the sediment of Lake Chaohu, China, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Three historical trends of DDT, PAH, and PCB deposition were delineated in a dated sediment core encompassing ~100 years of historical record: a steady state or gradually increasing stage, a rapidly increasing stage, and a declining stage. The GAM results showed that aquatic total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and regional GDP (anthropogenic factors) were dominant contributors to POP accumulation rates in the lake sediment. The fitted relationships between air temperature and sedimentary DDT and PAH concentrations were linear and negative, while a positive linear relationship was found for PCBs, suggesting that Lake Chaohu may have become a net source for DDTs and PAHs, and a sink for PCBs, under a progressively warming climate.

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Augustynczik ALD, Yousefpour R, M Hanewinkel (2019)

Climate change and the provision of biodiversity in public temperate forests - A mechanism design approach for the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.

Journal of environmental management, 246:706-716 pii:S0301-4797(19)30715-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The provision of forest biodiversity remains a major challenge in the management of forest resources. Biodiversity is mostly considered a public good and the fact that societal benefits from biodiversity are private information, hinders its supply at adequate levels. Here we investigate how the government, as a forest owner, may increase the biodiversity supply in publicly-owned forests. We employ a mechanism design approach to find the biodiversity provision choices, which take into account agents' strategic behavior and values towards biodiversity. We applied our framework to a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, using forest birds as biodiversity indicators and evaluating the impacts of climate change on forest dynamics and on the costs of biodiversity provision. Our results show that climate change has important implications to the opportunity cost of biodiversity and the provision levels (ranging from 10 to 12.5% increase of the bird indicator abundance). In general, biodiversity valuations needed to surpass the opportunity cost by more than 18% to cope with the private information held by the agents. Moreover, higher costs under more intense climate change (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) reduced the attainable bird abundance increase from 12.5 to 10%. We conclude that mechanism design may provide key information for planning conservation policies and identify conditions for a successful implementation of biodiversity-oriented forest management.

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Adeloye AJ, QV Dau (2019)

Hedging as an adaptive measure for climate change induced water shortage at the Pong reservoir in the Indus Basin Beas River, India.

The Science of the total environment, 687:554-566 pii:S0048-9697(19)32575-6 [Epub ahead of print].

This study investigated the adaptive capacity of static and dynamic hedging operating policies to shore up the performance, i.e. reliability and vulnerability, in irrigation water supply of Pong reservoir in India, during climate change. The policies were developed using genetic algorithm optimisation and used to force reservoir simulations for different climate change perturbed inflow series, whence derive the performance. For static hedging, the hedging fraction remains constant throughout the year while for dynamic hedging, this fraction varies monthly or seasonally. Results showed that static hedging was effective at tempering the systems vulnerability from its high of ≥60% to lower than 25%, while maintaining an acceptable volume-based reliability. Further simulations with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in these two indices. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging as a climate change adaptation measure by limiting water shortage impacts. It also demonstrates that simple static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.

RevDate: 2019-06-20

Kosaka T, Nakajima Y, Ishii A, et al (2019)

Correction: Capacity for survival in global warming: Adaptation of mesophiles to the temperature upper limit.

PloS one, 14(6):e0218985 pii:PONE-D-19-16944.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215614.].

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ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

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Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).

Timelines

ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.

Biographies

Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )