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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 09 Apr 2020 at 01:52 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2020-04-08

Das I, Lauria V, Kay S, et al (2020)

Effects of climate change and management policies on marine fisheries productivity in the north-east coast of India.

The Science of the total environment, 724:138082 pii:S0048-9697(20)31595-3 [Epub ahead of print].

The study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socio-economic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and primary production) to the end of the 21st century. Our results show that an increased temperature (by 4 °C) has a negative impact on fisheries productivity, which was projected to decrease by 5%. At the species level, Bombay duck, Indian mackerel and threadfin bream showed an increasing trend in the biomass of potential catches under the sustainable fishing scenario. However, under the business as usual and overfishing scenarios, our results suggest reduced catch for both states. On the other hand, mackerel tuna, Indian oil sardine, and hilsa fisheries showed a projected reduction in potential catch also for the sustainable fishing scenario. The socio-economic models projected an increase of up to 0.67% (involving 0.8 billion USD) in consumption by 2050 even under the best management scenario. The GDP per capita was projected to face a loss of 1.7 billion USD by 2050. The loss of low-cost fisheries would negatively impact the poorer coastal population since they strongly depend upon these fisheries as a source of protein. Nevertheless, adaptation strategies tend to have a negative correlation with poverty and food insecurity which needs to be addressed separately to make the sector-specific efforts effective. This work can be considered as the baseline model for future researchers and the policymakers to explore potential sustainable management options for the studied regions.

RevDate: 2020-04-08

Ye B, Zhang X, Zhang X, et al (2020)

Climate change, environmental impact, and human health.

RevDate: 2020-04-08

Ragavan MI, Marcil LE, A Garg (2020)

Climate Change as a Social Determinant of Health.

Pediatrics pii:peds.2019-3169 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-04-08

Šolić M, Šantić D, Šestanović S, et al (2020)

Changes in the Trophic Pathways within the Microbial Food Web in the Global Warming Scenario: An Experimental Study in the Adriatic Sea.

Microorganisms, 8(4): pii:microorganisms8040510.

A recent analysis of the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature showed significant annual warming. Since small picoplankton microorganisms play an important role in all major biogeochemical cycles, fluxes and processes occurring in marine systems (the changes at the base of the food web) as a response to human-induced temperature increase, could be amplified through the trophic chains and could also significantly affect different aspects of the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In this study, manipulative laboratory growth/grazing experiments were performed under in situ simulated conditions to study the structural and functional changes within the microbial food web after a 3 °C increase in temperature. The results show that a rise in temperature affects the changes in: (1) the growth and grazing rates of picoplankton, (2) their growth efficiency, (3) carrying capacities, (4) sensitivity of their production and grazing mortality to temperature, (5) satisfying protistan grazer carbon demands, (6) their preference in the selection of prey, (7) predator niche breadth and their overlap, (8) apparent uptake rates of nutrients, and (9) carbon biomass flow through the microbial food web. Furthermore, temperature affects the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of picoplankton in different ways.

RevDate: 2020-04-07

Zhao D, P Feng (2015)

Temperature increase impacts personality traits in aquatic non-native species: Implications for biological invasion under climate change.

Current zoology, 61(6):966-971.

Climate change, such as elevated temperatures, may facilitate biological invasion. Aquatic animal systems are more vulnerable to biological invasion when the temperature rises. Animal personality also plays an important role in the possibility of successful establishment of invasive species. However, it is still unclear how personality traits of invasive species will respond to global warming. This study focuses on juveniles of red swamp crawfish Procambarus clarkii, an invasive poikilothermic species with wide distribution throughout the world, and explores how slight temperature increases influence three personality traits (activity, boldness and aggressiveness) of P. clarkii. For each personality, individual variation is to be presented in condition of the same temperature. Individual personality values can significantly increase with the subtle rising of water temperature. Significant correlations among activity, boldness and aggressiveness are found at any temperature stage, and such relationships are maintained at a similar level in the face of different temperatures. It is most likely that significant expressions of personality traits may be an ecological compensation strategy to offset increased metabolic costs when faced with small temperature increases. Aggression syndromes are formed due to stable linkages between personality traits, in order to acquire allopatric resources efficiently and establish a new population in this species.

RevDate: 2020-04-07

Kreft CS, Huber R, Wüpper DJ, et al (2020)

Data on farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation measures, individual characteristics, risk attitudes and social influences in a region of Switzerland.

Data in brief, 30:105410 pii:105410.

We present survey data on the adoption of agricultural climate change mitigation measures collected among 105 farmers in a region in Switzerland in 2019. We surveyed measures farmers use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the farm level. The list comprised 13 measures related to energy production and use, herd and manure management as well as crop production. Additionally, data was collected with regard to farmers' individual concerns and perceptions of climate change, attitudes and goals, self-efficacy and locus of control, income satisfaction and social influences. Moreover, risk preferences as well as loss aversion and probability weighting were elicited using a multiple price list. The survey data was matched with cantonal farm census data, containing information on farm size, farm type and age of the farmers.

RevDate: 2020-04-06

Cong M, Xu Y, Tang L, et al (2020)

Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period.

PloS one, 15(4):e0230969 pii:PONE-D-19-29436.

Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO2 representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation.

RevDate: 2020-04-06

Wei D, Zhao H, Zhang J, et al (2020)

Human activities alter response of alpine grasslands on Tibetan Plateau to climate change.

Journal of environmental management, 262:110335.

The world's largest alpine pastures are found on the Tibetan Plateau, where considerable climate changes and human impacts have been experienced. Identifying their contributions to terrestrial productivity is essential if we are to adapt to, or mitigate the effects of, climate change. In this work, we begin by showing how the current warming and wetting of the climate over the last three decades has favored plant growth, as consistently captured by satellite observations and 15 models. However, the interactions between climate factors explain less of the variation in greenness observed by satellites after the 2000s, implying non-climatic influences. Next, we show that there is a significant negative impact of livestock grazing on pasture greenness, especially in peak summer. Official statistics across 72 counties verify these negative impacts, especially in poorer pastures with a higher density of grazing livestock. The variation in grazing density has a stronger negative effect on vegetation growth during the early part of the growing season after the 2000s, as compared with that before the 2000s. We found a compensatory effect of grazing and climate on alpine grassland growth, and the grazing regulates the response of vegetation greenness to climate change by modulating the dependency of vegetation growth on temperature. Thus, we suggest there is a weakening influence of climate on the greenness of alpine pastures, largely due to a strengthening influence of management, which should be considered by both the scientific community and policymakers.

RevDate: 2020-04-06

Li L, Zha Y, Zhang J, et al (2020)

Effect of terrestrial vegetation growth on climate change in China.

Journal of environmental management, 262:110321.

Globally, some vegetation has grown significantly over the past decades, but the climate benefits remain unclear, especially in the temperate regions. Understanding the biophysical effects and identifying the potential of vegetation will help to mitigate climate change. Here, we propose a vegetation-adjusted temperature index to understand how terrestrial vegetation growth in China affects the air temperature for 2001-2013, based on satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index, near-surface air temperature (Ta) and the land surface temperature. Grassland growth and cropland growth are found to cool the Ta by -0.08 ± 0.32 °C (mean ± one standard deviation) and -0.06 ± 0.28 °C, respectively. Forest growth results in net climate warming by 0.05 ± 0.29 °C. Biophysical effects, elevation and background climate are used to explain the climate impacts of vegetation. Results show that the biophysical effects dominate the climate impact. More specifically, evapotranspiration (ET) controls the daytime climate impact, and at night, an indirect effect of albedo (the release of daytime heat storage) dominates it. Lower precipitation, temperature and elevation reinforce the warming potential. Moreover, the effects of albedo and ET on climate are nonlinear. During the day, although lower albedo absorbs more incoming radiation, it releases more extra heat per unit ET that can compensate for the increased incoming radiation. At night, the warming effect reflects the release of daytime heat storage. Overall, tropical vegetation growth (-0.04 ± 0.10 °C) and warm temperate vegetation growth (-0.08 ± 0.15 °C) achieve the climatic benefits. Overall, the method proposed contributes to quantitatively evaluate the role of afforestation plan on regional climate cooling, and provides some policy/practical implications for future afforestation projects. Future afforestation projects should carefully consider the biophysical process and background climate to mitigate climate change.

RevDate: 2020-04-06

Martín-Arias J, Martínez-Santos P, B Andreo (2020)

Modelling the effects of climate change and population growth in four intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers. The Mijas range, southern Spain.

Journal of environmental management, 262:110316.

Groundwater is key to economic growth in the Mediterranean region. This is particularly true of areas such as southern Spain, where aquifers underpin social development by supplying water to a booming tourist industry. Intensive groundwater use raises sustainability concerns, as pumping often exceeds the long-term recharge rate. Climate change and population growth are likely to exacerbate the water supply challenge in the coming years, due to the expected decrease in rainfall and to increasing competition among users. This paper examines some of the main aquifers in the Costa del Sol region, one of Spain's leading tourist destinations, where intensive groundwater extraction has led to water table drawdowns and the desiccation of all major springs. A numerical model was developed and calibrated for the purpose of evaluating the likely evolution of the system in the future. Downscaled scenarios from global circulation models were coupled with population growth forecasts to establish a range of plausible water management scenarios. Given the relatively small size of the aquifers and the limited recharge rate, the current pumping patterns appear unsustainable. Results suggest that drawdowns in excess of 150 m could take place within the next decade, thus compromising domestic supplies.

RevDate: 2020-04-05

Dahal P, Shrestha ML, Panthi J, et al (2020)

Modeling the future impacts of climate change on water availability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya.

Environmental research, 185:109430 pii:S0013-9351(20)30323-6 [Epub ahead of print].

It's unequivocal that the global climate is changing, including the rise in atmospheric temperature and variability in amount and pattern of precipitation, and the rate of temperature change in the Himalayan region is higher than the global average. Since precipitation and temperature are the major driving factors of water resources in the Himalayas both upstream and downstream regions, it is important to understand theimpacts of climate change in water resource availability in the future. In this study, we analyzed the historical hydro-climate data and developed a suitable ensemble of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate models for the Karnali River Basin (KRB) in western Nepal and assessed the future water availability in different climate scenarios using a semi-distributed catchment scale hydrological model the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The climate data analysis shows that the atmospheric temperature is rising throughout the basin but there is high spatial variability in precipitation trend. The historical river discharge data analysis do not show any significant trend, however, there is some inter-annual variability. Future projection shows that the annual precipitation amount will increase compared to the baseline so does the river discharge. However, this increase is not uniform for all seasons. The post-monsoon season having the lowest observed precipitation will get lesser amount of precipitation in the future and the river discharge also follows the same trend. These anomalies play a crucial role in determining the future water availability for agriculture, hydropower, ecosystem functioning and its services availability to the people living in the KRB as well as in the downstream region.

RevDate: 2020-04-04

Allan RP, Barlow M, Byrne MP, et al (2020)

Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences [Epub ahead of print].

Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.

RevDate: 2020-04-03

Schwartz SA (2020)

Climate Change, Covid-19, Preparedness, and Consciousness.

Explore (New York, N.Y.) pii:S1550-8307(20)30106-3 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-04-02

Chitu E, C Paltineanu (2020)

Timing of phenological stages for apple and pear trees under climate change in a temperate-continental climate.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-01903-2 [Epub ahead of print].

The study examines the consequences of climate change in Malus (apple) and Pyrus (pear) on four phenological stages: bud swelling (code 51 BBCH Monograph), budburst (code 53), beginning of flowering (code 61), and end of flowering (code 69) in the temperate-continental climate of southern Romania. The hypothesis tested is how much the onset dates (TOD) of phenology stages moved earlier due to climate change. Weather and phenological data were collected from 1969 to 2018 and were statistically processed. There was an increase in air temperature (T) during the first 5 months in the year, with a significant rise in March and April; significant linear relationships show an advance in TOD with the years elapsed. Inverse linear relationships were found between TOD, maximum (Tmax), mean (Tmean), minimum (Tmin) temperature, and sunshine hours (Sh). The relationships between TOD and Tmax were the strongest. The early stages of flowering phenology are advancing more strongly than later flowering stages. For apple, in the last 50 years, there was an advance of 13.8 days for stage 51, 14.8 days for stage 53, 10.7 days for stage 61, and only 7.3 days for stage 69; for pear trees, the advance was lower: 10 days for stage 51, 9 days for stage 53, 6.7 days for stage 61, and only 2.1 days for stage 69. These findings, which might be extrapolated to similar environments, have important consequences in fruit growing, like the occurrence of climate accidents due to late frost, insect pollination, and application of pesticides and irrigation water.

RevDate: 2020-04-02

Hashida Y, Withey J, Lewis DJ, et al (2020)

Anticipating changes in wildlife habitat induced by private forest owners' adaptation to climate change and carbon policy.

PloS one, 15(4):e0230525 pii:PONE-D-19-29578.

Conserving forests to provide ecosystem services and biodiversity will be a key environmental challenge as society strives to adapt to climate change. The ecosystem services and biodiversity that forests provide will be influenced by the behaviors of numerous individual private landowners as they alter their use of forests in response to climate change and any future carbon pricing policies that emerge. We evaluated the impact of forest landowners' likely adaptation behaviors on potential habitat for 35 terrestrial, forest-dependent vertebrates across three U.S. Pacific states. In particular, we couple a previously estimated empirical-economic model of forest management with spatially explicit species' range and habitat associations to quantify the effects of adaptation to climate change and carbon pricing on potential habitat for our focal species (amphibians, birds and mammals) drawn from state agency lists of species of conservation concern. We show that both climate change and carbon pricing policies would likely encourage adaptation away from currently prevalent coniferous forest types, such as Douglas-fir, largely through harvest and planting decisions. This would reduce potential habitat for a majority of the focal species we studied across all three vertebrate taxa. The total anticipated habitat loss for amphibians, birds and mammals considered species of state concern would exceed total habitat gained, and the net loss in habitat per decade would accelerate over time. Carbon payments to forest landowners likely would lead to unintended localized habitat losses especially in Douglas-fir dominant forest types, and encourage more hardwoods on private forest lands. Our study highlights potential tradeoffs that could arise from pricing one ecosystem service (e.g., carbon) while leaving others (e.g., wildlife habitat) unpriced. Our study demonstrates the importance of anticipating potential changes in ecosystem services and biodiversity resulting from forest landowners' climate adaptation behavior and accounting for a broader set of environmental benefits and costs when designing policies to address climate change.

RevDate: 2020-04-02

Ozarslan R, Y Sekerci (2020)

Fractional order oxygen-plankton system under climate change.

Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.), 30(3):033131.

Global climate change affects marine species including phytoplankton, which constitute the base of the marine food web, by changing the primary productivity. Global warming affects the ocean surface temperature, in turn leading to a change in the oxygen production of phytoplankton. In this work, the fractional oxygen-phytoplankton-zooplankton mathematical model is considered by the Caputo fractional operator. The production rate of photosynthesis is determined by a temperature function. The model is, therefore, based on the idea that the rate of photosynthesis changes due to the impact of global warming, while phytoplankton oxygen production increases and decreases. We analyze the model with the Caputo fractional derivative differently from the classical case of the model and we compare the results with the integer order derivative when α tends to 1. Existence and uniqueness properties of the oxygen-plankton model have been proved by means of a local Lipschitz condition. It was shown that the species are more sustainable than its corresponding classical case in the Caputo model. Our results show that the effect of global warming on the oxygen production rate has been observed to be quite severe, resulting in oxygen depletion and plankton extinction.

RevDate: 2020-04-02

Leddin D, F Macrae (2020)

Climate Change: Implications for Gastrointestinal Health and Disease.

Journal of clinical gastroenterology [Epub ahead of print].

The earth's atmosphere has warmed by about 1°C compared with preindustrial temperature. This is producing changes in the earth's climate and weather which have implications for gastrointestinal health and disease. Climate change will exacerbate current challenges with regard to provision of adequate nutrition and access to clean water. An increase in high rainfall events, flooding and droughts will be associated with an increase in enteric infections and hepatitis. Changes in habitat may result in altered distribution of gastrointestinal illness such as Vibrio cholera. Climate change will force migration between countries, and within countries, and will drive relocation from rural to urban areas, further straining sanitation and clean water provision. The infrastructure required to the delivery of gastrointestinal care is vulnerable to extreme weather events which will become more frequent. The Gastroenterology community needs to join the debate on climate change by organizing, educating, advocating, and supporting our political leaders as they face the enormous challenges posed by global warming.

RevDate: 2020-04-01

Haines A, P Scheelbeek (2020)

The health case for urgent action on climate change.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 368:m1103.

RevDate: 2020-04-01

Harmer A, Eder B, Gepp S, et al (2020)

WHO should declare climate change a public health emergency.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 368:m797.

RevDate: 2020-04-01

Bryson JM, Bishop-Williams KE, Berrang-Ford L, et al (2020)

Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Context of Climate Change in East Africa: A Systematic Scoping Review.

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene [Epub ahead of print].

East Africa is highly affected by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), which are projected to be exacerbated by climate change. Consequently, understanding what research has been conducted and what knowledge gaps remain regarding NTDs and climate change is crucial to informing public health interventions and climate change adaptation. We conducted a systematic scoping review to describe the extent, range, and nature of publications examining relationships between NTDs and climatic factors in East Africa. We collated all relevant English and French publications indexed in PubMed®, Web of Science™ Core Collection, and CAB Direct© databases published before 2019. Ninety-six publications were included for review. Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia had high rates of publication, whereas countries in the Western Indian Ocean region were underrepresented. Most publications focused on schistosomiasis (n = 28, 29.2%), soil-transmitted helminthiases (n = 16, 16.7%), or human African trypanosomiasis (n = 14, 14.6%). Precipitation (n = 91, 94.8%) and temperature (n = 54, 56.3%) were frequently investigated climatic factors, whereas consideration of droughts (n = 10, 10.4%) and floods (n = 4, 4.2%) was not prominent. Publications reporting on associations between NTDs and changing climate were increasing over time. There was a decrease in the reporting of indigeneity and age factors over time. Overall, there were substantial knowledge gaps for several countries and for many NTDs. To better understand NTDs in the context of a changing climate, it would be helpful to increase research on underrepresented diseases and regions, consider demographic and social factors in research, and characterize how these factors modify the effects of climatic variables on NTDs in East Africa.

RevDate: 2020-03-31

Alahmad B, Khraishah H, Shakarchi AF, et al (2020)

Cardiovascular Mortality and Exposure to Heat in an Inherently Hot Region: Implications for Climate Change.

Circulation [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-03-30

Ma J, Zhou L, Foltz GR, et al (2020)

Hydrological cycle changes under global warming and their effects on multiscale climate variability.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences [Epub ahead of print].

Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global-scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land-sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process-level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate.

RevDate: 2020-03-30

Li Y, Li F, Yang F, et al (2020)

Spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on food production: case study of Shaanxi Province, China.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-08447-3 [Epub ahead of print].

The climate change on the impact of grain production potential has significant regional differences. Researchers have studied the grain production potential of various crop combinations or focused on single crop types in a typical area; however, the regional differences of the climate change on the impact of grain production potential were neglected. This paper used the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ 3.0) model to focus on the analysis what is the climate change on the impact of grain production potential in different geographic units (Northern Shaanxi Plateau, Guanzhong Basin, Qinba Mountain) in Shaanxi Province of China. The case showed that the precipitation (Pre) what made changes of grain production potential was the most important factor in different geographic units. The increase of Pre had a positive impact on the grain production potential in Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. However, in Qinba Mountain, due to excessive Pre in the Qinba Mountains, the decrease of Pre had a certain positive impact on the grain production potential. The precipitation was less in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau; therefore, its major factors leading to changes of crop production were precipitation and rainfall days. The increase of the mean maximum temperature (Tmx) and the mean minimum temperature (Tmn) had a positive impact of the grain production potential in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. The higher temperature had a negative impact on the grain production potential. In Qinba Mountain, the increase of the temperature has a certain negative impact on the grain production potential. It has more influence of Tmx in the Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain rather than that in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau. Generally speaking, the major climatic factors leading grain production potential were Pre and Tmx in Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain.

RevDate: 2020-03-30

Babel MS, Shinde VR, Sharma D, et al (2020)

Measuring water security: A vital step for climate change adaptation.

Environmental research, 185:109400 pii:S0013-9351(20)30293-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and water are intricately linked. Water is the primary medium through which the impacts of climate change will be felt. Securing the water sector and enhancing water security is, therefore, imperative for any adaptive response to climate change. A precursor in improving water security is to first establish a mechanism to measure it. Only then can incremental and progressive actions be evaluated. This study has developed such a mechanism in the form of a water security assessment framework using an indictor-based methodology. The framework is developed for city-scale analysis because analyses at this scale is more useful in operationalizing water security enhancement. The framework has a three-layered structure comprising five dimensions (broad elements of water security), twelve indicators (areas of interest within the dimensions), and a set of potential variables that can be used to quantify the indicators. The framework has been developed to foster practical interventions for water security enhancement and not as a comparative tool for benchmarking. Hence, while the dimensions and indicators of the framework are fixed, the choice of variables is up to the city depending upon its context. This aspect of the framework, therefore, is meant to help cities introspect internally and move up the water security ladder. The framework culminates into a Water Security Index (WSI), measured on a scale from one to five. The scale is linear and hierarchical in its grade value. The framework was successfully used to assess the water security situation of Bangkok. The study also makes a case for scaling up this intervention for other major cities in Thailand, which can then help implement some of Thailand's key climate change adaptation initiatives such as the Nationally Determined Contributions and the National Climate Change Master Plan.

RevDate: 2020-03-30

Valdes-Abellan J, Pardo MA, Jodar-Abellan A, et al (2020)

Climate change impact on karstic aquifer hydrodynamics in southern Europe semi-arid region using the KAGIS model.

The Science of the total environment, 723:138110 pii:S0048-9697(20)31623-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Nowadays, there are many urban settlements in arid and semiarid areas supplied by groundwater from adjacent small aquifers. Climate projections with expected decreases in averages precipitation values jointly with increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events does not show a clear pattern to how water resources in karstic aquifers are going to evolve. This paper, focused in the province of Alicante (Southeast of Spain), assesses the behaviour of a small karstic aquifer, the Mela aquifer, whose resources supply urban water consumption for close municipalities. We assess the hydrogeological response of the aquifer, through the KAGIS black-box GIS-based model, for the present climate conditions and for the long period analysing the four scenarios provided by the International Panel of Climate Change. Main results prove that, if we do not diminish the greenhouse gas emissions, the climate change impact on the hydrological response of the study aquifer shows a decrease in the flow rate from its unique spring and will be non-existent during the summer months. So, it will be necessary to design supply strategies for these municipalities and to carry out them, meeting budget restrictions and avoiding potential water shortages.

RevDate: 2020-03-29

Wilson KL, Tittensor DP, Worm B, et al (2020)

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here, we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed, and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

RevDate: 2020-03-29

Enriquez-Urzelai U, Tingley R, Kearney MR, et al (2020)

The roles of acclimation and behavior in buffering climate change impacts along elevational gradients.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

1. The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation, and behavioral thermoregulation. The importance of interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. 2. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used to integrate and assess the influence of these sources of uncertainty in forecasts of climate change impacts. 3. We explored geographic variation in thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum and minimum thermal limits) and its potential for acclimation in juvenile European common frogs (Rana temporaria) along elevational gradients. Further, we employed a mechanistic niche model (NicheMapR) to assess the relative contributions of phenotypic variation, acclimation and thermoregulation in determining the impacts of climate change on thermal safety margins and activity windows. 4. Our analyses revealed that high elevation populations had slightly wider tolerance ranges driven by increases in heat tolerance but lower potential for acclimation. Plausibly, wider thermal fluctuations at high elevations favor more tolerant but less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing the risk of encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models of thermal exposure indicated that observed phenotypic and plastic differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, the risk of reaching body temperatures beyond the species' thermal tolerance range was similar across elevations. In contrast, the ability to seek cooler retreat sites through behavioral adjustments played an essential role in buffering populations from thermal extremes predicted under climate change. Predicted climate change also altered current activity windows, but high-elevation populations were predicted to remain more temporally constrained than lowland populations. 5. Our results demonstrate that elevational variation in thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity might be insufficient to buffer temperate amphibians from predicted climate change; instead, behavioral thermoregulation may be the only effective mechanism to avoid thermal stress under future climates.

RevDate: 2020-03-29

López MS, Santi MF, Müller GV, et al (2020)

Corrigendum to "Climate change communication by the local digital press in northeastern Argentina: An ethical analysis" [Sci. Total Environ. 707 (2020), 1-7/135737].

RevDate: 2020-03-29

Hastings RA, Rutterford LA, Freer JJ, et al (2020)

Climate Change Drives Poleward Increases and Equatorward Declines in Marine Species.

Current biology : CB pii:S0960-9822(20)30250-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Marine environments have increased in temperature by an average of 1°C since pre-industrial (1850) times [1]. Given that species ranges are closely allied to physiological thermal tolerances in marine organisms [2], it may therefore be expected that ocean warming would lead to abundance increases at poleward side of ranges and abundance declines toward the equator [3]. Here, we report a global analysis of abundance trends of 304 widely distributed marine species over the last century, across a range of taxonomic groups from phytoplankton to fish and marine mammals. Specifically, using a literature database, we investigate the extent that the direction and strength of long-term species abundance changes depend on the sampled location within the latitudinal range of species. Our results show that abundance increases have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the poleward side of species ranges, and abundance declines have been most prominent where sampling has taken place at the equatorward side of species ranges. These data provide evidence of omnipresent large-scale changes in abundance of marine species consistent with warming over the last century and suggest that adaptation has not provided a buffer against the negative effects of warmer conditions at the equatorward extent of species ranges. On the basis of these results, we suggest that projected sea temperature increases of up to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels by 2050 [4] will continue to drive latitudinal abundance shifts in marine species, including those of importance for coastal livelihoods.

RevDate: 2020-03-28

Jahanzad E, Holtz BA, Zuber CA, et al (2020)

Orchard recycling improves climate change adaptation and mitigation potential of almond production systems.

PloS one, 15(3):e0229588 pii:PONE-D-19-23165.

There is an urgent need to develop climate smart agroecosystems capable of mitigating climate change and adapting to its effects. In California, high commodity prices and increased frequency of drought have encouraged orchard turnover, providing an opportunity to recycle tree biomass in situ prior to replanting an orchard. Whole orchard recycling (WOR) has potential as a carbon (C) negative cultural practice to build soil C storage, soil health, and orchard productivity. We tested the potential of this practice for long term C sequestration and hypothesized that associated co-benefits to soil health will enhance sustainability and resiliency of almond orchards to water-deficit conditions. We measured soil health metrics and productivity of an almond orchard following grinding and incorporation of woody biomass vs. burning of old orchard biomass 9 years after implementation. We also conducted a deficit irrigation trial with control and deficit irrigation (-20%) treatments to quantify shifts in tree water status and resilience. Biomass recycling led to higher yields and substantial improvement in soil functioning, including nutrient content, aggregation, porosity, and water retention. This practice also sequestered significantly higher levels of C in the topsoil (+5 t ha-1) compared to burning. We measured a 20% increase in irrigation water use efficiency and improved soil and tree water status under stress, suggesting that in situ biomass recycling can be considered as a climate smart practice in California irrigated almond systems.

RevDate: 2020-03-28

Pham-Duc B, Sylvestre F, Papa F, et al (2020)

The Lake Chad hydrology under current climate change.

Scientific reports, 10(1):5498 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-62417-w.

Lake Chad, in the Sahelian zone of west-central Africa, provides food and water to ~50 million people and supports unique ecosystems and biodiversity. In the past decades, it became a symbol of current climate change, held up by its dramatic shrinkage in the 1980s. Despites a partial recovery in response to increased Sahelian precipitation in the 1990s, Lake Chad is still facing major threats and its contemporary variability under climate change remains highly uncertain. Here, using a new multi-satellite approach, we show that Lake Chad extent has remained stable during the last two decades, despite a slight decrease of its northern pool. Moreover, since the 2000s, groundwater, which contributes to ~70% of Lake Chad's annual water storage change, is increasing due to water supply provided by its two main tributaries. Our results indicate that in tandem with groundwater and tropical origin of water supply, over the last two decades, Lake Chad is not shrinking and recovers seasonally its surface water extent and volume. This study provides a robust regional understanding of current hydrology and changes in the Lake Chad region, giving a basis for developing future climate adaptation strategies.

RevDate: 2020-03-28

Macdonald G (2020)

Our prescription for climate change: reduce and recycle inhalers!.

The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 70(693):168 pii:70/693/168.

RevDate: 2020-03-27

Ebi KL (2008)

Healthy people 2100: modeling population health impacts of climate change.

Climatic change, 88(1):5-19.

Quantitatively estimating the potential health impacts of climate change is facilitated by multi-determinant models that integrate micro- to macro-level exposures and processes that influence disease occurrence, including the public health responses, in order to identify regions and population groups that may be more vulnerable. Although progress has been made in constructing systems-based models, considerable work is required to address key issues of quantification of the climate-health associations and the factors that affect those associations; specification of model(s) appropriate to incorporate climate change, adaptation, and mitigation policies; incorporation of thresholds; incorporation of pathways of public health development; and quantification of uncertainties.

RevDate: 2020-03-27

Moser SC, JAF Hart (2015)

The long arm of climate change: societal teleconnections and the future of climate change impacts studies.

Climatic change, 129(1):13-26.

"Societal teleconnections" - analogous to physical teleconnections such as El Niño - are human-created linkages that link activities, trends, and disruptions across large distances, such that locations spatially separated from the locus of an event can experience a variety of impacts from it nevertheless. In the climate change context, such societal teleconnections add a layer of risk that is currently neither fully appreciated in most impacts or vulnerability assessments nor in on-the-ground adaptation planning. Conceptually, societal teleconnections arise from the interactions among actors, and the institutions that guide their actions, affecting the movement of various substances through different structures and processes. Empirically, they arise out of societal interactions, including globalization, to create, amplify, and sometimes attenuate climate change vulnerabilities and impacts in regions far from those where a climatic extreme or change occurs. This paper introduces a simple but systematic way to conceptualize societal teleconnections and then highlights and explores eight unique but interrelated types of societal teleconnections with selected examples: (1) trade and economic exchange, (2) insurance and reinsurance, (3) energy systems, (4) food systems; (5) human health, (6) population migration, (7) communication, and (8) strategic alliances and military interactions. The paper encourages further research to better understand the causal chains behind socially teleconnected impacts, and to identify ways to routinely integrate their consideration in impacts/vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning to limit the risk of costly impacts.

RevDate: 2020-03-27

Nikendei C, Cranz A, TJ Bugaj (2020)

Two slides to make you think: 2slides4future, an initiative for teachers and lecturers advocating climate change education and teacher-learner dialogue.

Medical education [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-03-27

Feist A, Plummer R, Baird J, et al (2020)

Examining Collaborative Processes for Climate Change Adaptation in New Brunswick, Canada.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-020-01284-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Collaboration is a proposed strategy to address super wicked environmental problems, such as climate change. Yet, understanding how it works for climate change adaptation is nascent. This research aims to advance the understanding of this by a cross-case analysis of three cases in New Brunswick, Canada. We sought to illuminate the inner workings of multiparty collaboration in the context of community climate change adaptation; identify important qualities of the process and outcomes from it, and probe their relationships; and, explore how they come about in practice. A questionnaire was sent to individuals involved in cases and key informant interviews were conducted. Results reveal case-specific variations, but more importantly, common qualities and outcomes across the cases. They offer key insight into elements which may be important in collaborative settings. These are informative for influencing the uptake of collaborative strategies in climate change adaptation and offer the opportunity to better understand their functional effectiveness.

RevDate: 2020-03-27

Robinson A (2020)

A lively history of smell, practical solutions for climate change, and big cats on the prowl: Books in brief.

Nature, 579(7800):491.

RevDate: 2020-03-27

Chen B, Yu K, Qin Z, et al (2020)

Dispersal, genetic variation, and symbiont interaction network of heat-tolerant endosymbiont Durusdinium trenchii: Insights into the adaptive potential of coral to climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 723:138026 pii:S0048-9697(20)31539-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming has degraded coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Some corals develop thermal tolerance by associating with heat-tolerant Symbiodiniaceae. Here, we studied the mechanisms surrounding the dispersal, genetic variation and symbionts interaction of heat-tolerant Durusdinium trenchii across 13° latitudes in the South China Sea (SCS), to explore the possible mechanisms underlying these changes. Our results showed that Durusdinium trenchii are widely distributed in the seawater from the SCS. Our analyses of microsatellite loci revealed that D. trenchii has a high genetic diversity in the SCS; STRUCTURE analysis indicated that D. trenchii can be divided into four populations within the SCS; There exist positive correlations between genetic variation and geographic isolation, average sea surface temperature (SST) and variations in SST. Network modelling inferences showed that D. trenchii is a key species in the Symbiodiniaceae communities in the tropical SCS and contributes the greatest number of co-exclusion relationships. These results indicated that D. trenchii can affect the rare Symbiodiniaceae community. The long lifespan and the monsoon-driven ocean currents have shaped the wide distribution of D. trenchii. But low SST limits the ability of D. trenchii to establish stable symbioses with coral in the subtropical habitats. Geographical isolation and SST have shaped significant genetic variation of D.trenchii around the SCS. Our data reveals the biogeography and genetic population characteristics of D. trenchii in the Indo-Pacific region, and suggests that heat-tolerance and high genetic diversity of D. trenchii aid the corals with their adaptation to climate change.

RevDate: 2020-03-26

Doyle P, Kelly I, D O’Neill (2019)

Older People: Canaries in the Coal-Mine for Health Effects of Climate Change.

Irish medical journal.

RevDate: 2020-03-26

Zhao Z, Guo Y, Wei H, et al (2020)

Potential distribution of Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang and its predicted responses to climate change based on a comprehensive habitat suitability model.

Ecology and evolution, 10(6):3004-3016 pii:ECE36117.

Notopterygium incisum Ting ex H. T. Chang is a rare and endangered traditional Chinese medicinal plant. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species in the present and future in China. First, using nine different algorithms, we built an ensemble model to explore the possible impacts of climate change on the habitat distribution of this species. Then, based on this model, we built a CHS model to further identify the distribution characteristics of N. incisum-suitable habitats in three time periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s) while considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for N. incisum covers approximately 83.76 × 103 km2, and these locations were concentrated in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, and Sichuan Province. In the future, the areas of suitable habitat for N. incisum would significantly decrease and would be 69.53 × 103 km2 and 60.21 × 103 km2 in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. However, the area of marginally suitable habitat would remain relatively stable. This study provides a more reliable and comprehensive method for modelling the current and future distributions of N. incisum, and it provides valuable insights for highlighting priority areas for medicinal plant conservation and resource utilization.

RevDate: 2020-03-26

Denney DA, Jameel MI, Bemmels JB, et al (2020)

Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change.

AoB PLANTS, 12(2):plaa005 pii:plaa005.

Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.

RevDate: 2020-03-26

Jia KH, Zhao W, Maier PA, et al (2020)

Landscape genomics predicts climate change-related genetic offset for the widespread Platycladus orientalis (Cupressaceae).

Evolutionary applications, 13(4):665-676 pii:EVA12891.

Understanding and quantifying populations' adaptive genetic variation and their response to climate change are critical to reforestation's seed source selection, forest management decisions, and gene conservation. Landscape genomics combined with geographic and environmental information provide an opportunity to interrogate forest populations' genome-wide variation for understanding the extent to which evolutionary forces shape past and contemporary populations' genetic structure, and identify those populations that may be most at risk under future climate change. Here, we used genotyping by sequencing to generate over 11,000 high-quality variants from Platycladus orientalis range-wide collection to evaluate its diversity and to predict genetic offset under future climate scenarios. Platycladus orientalis is a widespread conifer in China with significant ecological, timber, and medicinal values. We found population structure and evidences of isolation by environment, indicative of adaptation to local conditions. Gradient forest modeling identified temperature-related variables as the most important environmental factors influencing genetic variation and predicted areas with higher risk under future climate change. This study provides an important reference for forest resource management and conservation for P. orientalis.

RevDate: 2020-03-26

Cianconi P, Betrò S, L Janiri (2020)

The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A Systematic Descriptive Review.

Frontiers in psychiatry, 11:74.

Background: Climate change is one of the great challenges of our time. The consequences of climate change on exposed biological subjects, as well as on vulnerable societies, are a concern for the entire scientific community. Rising temperatures, heat waves, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, fires, loss of forest, and glaciers, along with disappearance of rivers and desertification, can directly and indirectly cause human pathologies that are physical and mental. However, there is a clear lack in psychiatric studies on mental disorders linked to climate change.

Methods: Literature available on PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library until end of June 2019 were reviewed. The total number of articles and association reports was 445. From these, 163 were selected. We looked for the association between classical psychiatric disorders such as anxiety schizophrenia, mood disorder and depression, suicide, aggressive behaviors, despair for the loss of usual landscape, and phenomena related to climate change and extreme weather. Review of literature was then divided into specific areas: the course of change in mental health, temperature, water, air pollution, drought, as well as the exposure of certain groups and critical psychological adaptations.

Results: Climate change has an impact on a large part of the population, in different geographical areas and with different types of threats to public health. However, the delay in studies on climate change and mental health consequences is an important aspect. Lack of literature is perhaps due to the complexity and novelty of this issue. It has been shown that climate change acts on mental health with different timing. The phenomenology of the effects of climate change differs greatly-some mental disorders are common and others more specific in relation to atypical climatic conditions. Moreover, climate change also affects different population groups who are directly exposed and more vulnerable in their geographical conditions, as well as a lack of access to resources, information, and protection. Perhaps it is also worth underlining that in some papers the connection between climatic events and mental disorders was described through the introduction of new terms, coined only recently: ecoanxiety, ecoguilt, ecopsychology, ecological grief, solastalgia, biospheric concern, etc.

Conclusions: The effects of climate change can be direct or indirect, short-term or long-term. Acute events can act through mechanisms similar to that of traumatic stress, leading to well-understood psychopathological patterns. In addition, the consequences of exposure to extreme or prolonged weather-related events can also be delayed, encompassing disorders such as posttraumatic stress, or even transmitted to later generations.

RevDate: 2020-03-26

Magaña Ugarte R, Escudero A, Mata DS, et al (2020)

Changes in Foliar Functional Traits of S. pyrenaicus subsp. carpetanus under the Ongoing Climate Change: A Retrospective Survey.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 9(3): pii:plants9030395.

The sensitivity of stomatal behavior and patterning (i.e., distribution, density, size) to environmental stimuli, renders them crucial for defining the physiological performance of leaves. Thus, assessing long-term modifications in stomatal traits in conserved specimens arises as a valuable eco-physiological approach to predict how the rising trend of warmer, drier summers could affect plant fitness; particularly in mountain areas already experiencing climate aggravation and lacking the related monitoring schemes like Mediterranean high-mountains. Variations in foliar and stomatal traits were studied in conserved specimens of Senecio pyrenaicus subsp. carpetanus from Sierra de Guadarrama over the past 71 years. Our findings revealed decreasing trends in leaf width, stomatal size, and increasing tendency in stomatal density, all correlated with the recent 30-year climate exacerbation in these mountains. This evidenced a positive selection favoring traits that allow safeguarding plant performance under drier, hotter weather conditions. The significant relation between stomatal traits and climatic variables upholds the role of stomatal patterning in sensing environmental cues in this species, feasibly optimizing physiological responses involved in the growth-water loss trade-off. The transition to smaller, densely packed stomata observed in recent decades could indicate local-adaptive plasticity in this species, enhancing stomatal response, as coarser environmental conditions take place in Sierra de Guadarrama.

RevDate: 2020-03-26

Weiskopf SR, Rubenstein MA, Crozier LG, et al (2020)

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(20)31294-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

RevDate: 2020-03-25

Guevara-Ochoa C, Medina-Sierra A, L Vives (2020)

Spatio-temporal effect of climate change on water balance and interactions between groundwater and surface water in plains.

The Science of the total environment, 722:137886 pii:S0048-9697(20)31399-1 [Epub ahead of print].

The analysis of the impact of climate change on water resources in plains requires integral simulation tools that quantify topographic complexity and the strong interaction of groundwater and surface water components (GW-SW). The objective of this study is to implement a coupled hydrological-hydrogeological model under climate change scenarios in order to quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics of water balance and GW-SW interactions for the upper creek basin of Del Azul, which is located in the center of the province of Buenos Aires. The simulation was carried out for a baseline scenario calibrated and validated for the period 2003-2015 and contrasted with two scenarios of the regional climate model CCSM4, RCP (4.5 and 8.5) simulated for the period 2020-2050. First, the annual and monthly anomalies of precipitation, temperature, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, recharge, flow, as well as the discharge, head level and reserves of groundwater are studied. Then the spatio-temporal anomalies of the GW-SW interaction were analyzed and finally wet and dry periods by means of the standardized precipitation index and the annual water balance were studied. Simulation results show that climate change will significantly alter the spatio-temporal patterns of the GW-SW interaction as well as the water balance. These showed monthly, seasonal and annual variations. They show an increase in most of the components of the water balance towards the middle of the 21st century, except soil moisture. Regarding GW-SW interactions, the average annual discharge of the aquifer to the stream is expected to increase by 5% with RCP 4.5 while it will increase 24% with RCP 8.5. The recharge from the stream to the aquifer is expected to increase by 12% with RCP 4.5 while a decrease by 5% with RCP 8.5. Concerning the SPI related to the water balance for the period 2020-2050, alternations of both the time and the length of dry and wet periods are expected for the two scenarios, with RCP 4.5 low frequency of wet episodes, but with a greater severity and permanence in time in contrast to RCP 8.5 that presents less frequency in dry periods, but with high permanence and severity. Climate change could alter groundwater mainly through changes in the recharge, leading to modify groundwater levels and this will cause GW-SW flow to be reversed in some sectors of the stream by increasing or decreasing groundwater discharge into the stream.

RevDate: 2020-03-24

Akerlof KL, Boules C, Ban Rohring E, et al (2020)

Governmental Communication of Climate Change Risk and Efficacy: Moving Audiences Toward "Danger Control".

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-020-01283-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Public communication represents a vital civic function for governments developing climate policies, particularly with vulnerable communities under environmental justice mandates. In this study, three videos developed to support a state's climate change public engagement are used to evaluate how governmental communication using the frames of health, science, and local effects influences two theoretically important constructs, risk perception and collective efficacy. Vulnerable audiences differentiated by stress, perceived lack of control, and poor health demonstrate significant gains in collective efficacy relative to risk-"danger control" -after the intervention. But we find no differences between the three frames in their effects on perceptions of climate change risk and collective efficacy.

RevDate: 2020-03-24

Kim D, J Lee (2020)

Spatial Changes in Work Capacity for Occupations Vulnerable to Heat Stress: Potential Regional Impacts From Global Climate Change.

Safety and health at work, 11(1):1-9.

Background: As the impact of climate change intensifies, exposure to heat stress will grow, leading to a loss of work capacity for vulnerable occupations and affecting individual labor decisions. This study estimates the future work capacity under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario and discusses its regional impacts on the occupational structure in the Republic of Korea.

Methods: The data utilized for this study constitute the local wet bulb globe temperature from the Korea Meteorological Administration and information from the Korean Working Condition Survey from the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute of Korea. Using these data, we classify the occupations vulnerable to heat stress and estimate future changes in work capacity at the local scale, considering the occupational structure. We then identify the spatial cluster of diminishing work capacity using exploratory spatial data analysis.

Results: Our findings indicate that 52 occupations are at risk of heat stress, including machine operators and elementary laborers working in the construction, welding, metal, and mining industries. Moreover, spatial clusters with diminished work capacity appear in southwest Korea.

Conclusion: Although previous studies investigated the work capacity associated with heat stress in terms of climatic impact, this study quantifies the local impacts due to the global risk of climate change. The results suggest the need for mainstreaming an adaptation policy related to work capacity in regional development strategies.

RevDate: 2020-03-24

Ivanova M (2020)

Everyone, everywhere: the global challenge of climate change.

Nature, 579(7800):488-489.

RevDate: 2020-03-24

Vidya PJ, Ravichandran M, Subeesh MP, et al (2020)

Author Correction: Global warming hiatus contributed weakening of the Mascarene High in the Southern Indian Ocean.

Scientific reports, 10(1):5670 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-62006-x.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2020-03-24

Dumont C, Haase E, Dolber T, et al (2020)

Climate Change and Risk of Completed Suicide.

The Journal of nervous and mental disease [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is increasingly recognized as having multiple adverse mental health effects, many of which are just beginning to be understood. The elevated rates of suicides observed in some communities affected by climate change and rising rates of suicide in the United States as climate change intensifies have suggested the two may be associated. We searched PubMed and PsycInfo using the terms climate change and suicide, and provide here a review of the current literature on climate change and suicide that explores possible associations and methodological issues and challenges in this research.

RevDate: 2020-03-24

Francisco Ribeiro P, AV Camargo Rodriguez (2020)

Emerging Advanced Technologies to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change in Africa.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 9(3): pii:plants9030381.

Agriculture remains critical to Africa's socioeconomic development, employing 65% of the work force and contributing 32% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Low productivity, which characterises food production in many Africa countries, remains a major concern. Compounded by the effects of climate change and lack of technical expertise, recent reports suggest that the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food systems in African countries may have further-reaching consequences than previously anticipated. Thus, it has become imperative that African scientists and farmers adopt new technologies which facilitate their research and provide smart agricultural solutions to mitigating current and future climate change-related challenges. Advanced technologies have been developed across the globe to facilitate adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9), synthetic biology, and genomic selection, among others, constitute examples of some of these technologies. In this work, emerging advanced technologies with the potential to effectively mitigate climate change in Africa are reviewed. The authors show how these technologies can be utilised to enhance knowledge discovery for increased production in a climate change-impacted environment. We conclude that the application of these technologies could empower African scientists to explore agricultural strategies more resilient to the effects of climate change. Additionally, we conclude that support for African scientists from the international community in various forms is necessary to help Africans avoid the full undesirable effects of climate change.

RevDate: 2020-03-23

O'Meara S (2020)

Deflecting the heat of climate change.

RevDate: 2020-03-23

Tollefson J (2019)

New York City climate-change plan proposes adding land to Manhattan.

RevDate: 2020-03-23

Nielsen KS, Clayton S, Stern PC, et al (2020)

How psychology can help limit climate change.

The American psychologist pii:2020-20238-001 [Epub ahead of print].

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has encouraged psychologists to become part of the integrated scientific effort to support the achievement of climate change targets such as keeping within 1.5°C or 2°C of global warming. To date, the typical psychological approach has been to demonstrate that specific concepts and theories can predict behaviors that contribute to or mitigate climate change. Psychologists need to go further and, in particular, show that integrating psychological concepts into feasible interventions can reduce greenhouse gas emissions far more than would be achieved without such integration. While critiquing some aspects of current approaches, we describe psychological research that is pointing the way by distinguishing different types of behavior, acknowledging sociocultural context, and collaborating with other disciplines. Engaging this challenge offers psychologists new opportunities for promoting mitigation, advancing psychological understanding, and developing better interdisciplinary interactions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

RevDate: 2020-03-23

Gostimirovic M, Novakovic R, Rajkovic J, et al (2020)

The influence of climate change on human cardiovascular function.

Archives of environmental & occupational health [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is considered to have great impact on human health. The heat waves have been associated with excess morbidity and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) across various populations and geographic locations. Important role in the heat-induced cardiovascular damage has endothelial dysfunction. It has been noticed that hot weather can impair tone and structure of the blood vessels via interfering with variety of biological factors such as nitric oxide synthesize, cytokine production and systemic inflammation. Also, due to dehydration and increased blood viscosity, by promoting thrombogenesis, heat has important impact on patients with atherosclerosis. During chronic exposure to the cold or hot weather cardiovascular function can be decreased, leading to a higher risk of developing heart attack, malignant cardiac arrhythmias, thromboembolic diseases and heat-induced sepsis like shock. It has been shown that changes in the ambient temperature through increasing blood pressure, blood viscosity, and heart rate, contribute to the cardiovascular mortality. The majority of deaths due to heat waves especially affect individuals with preexisting chronic CVD. This population can experience a decline in the health status, since extreme ambient temperature affects pharmacokinetic parameters of many cardiovascular drugs. Increased mortality from ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke can also be related to extreme temperature variations. On a cellular level, higher ambient temperature can limit storage of ATP and O2increase amount of free radicals and toxic substances and induce neuronal apoptotic signal transduction, which all can lead to a stroke. Preserving cardiovascular function in context of extreme climate changing tends to be particularly challenging.

RevDate: 2020-03-22

Sun Y, Ding J, Siemann E, et al (2020)

Biocontrol of invasive weeds under climate change: progress, challenges and management implications.

Current opinion in insect science, 38:72-78 pii:S2214-5745(20)30025-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and impact of plant invasions, creating a need for new control strategies as part of mitigation planning. The complex interactions between invasive plants and biocontrol agents have created distinct policy and management challenges, including the effectiveness and risk assessment of biocontrol under different climate change scenarios. In this brief review, we synthesize recent studies describing the potential ecological and evolutionary outcomes for biocontrol agents/candidates for plant invaders under climate change. We also discuss potential methodologies that can be used as a framework for predicting ecological and evolutionary responses of plant-natural enemy interactions under climate change, and for refining our understanding of the efficacy and risk of using biocontrol on invasive plants.

RevDate: 2020-03-21

Khalsa SDS, Smart DR, Muhammad S, et al (2020)

Intensive fertilizer use increases orchard N cycling and lowers net global warming potential.

The Science of the total environment, 722:137889 pii:S0048-9697(20)31402-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer use has simultaneously increased global food production and N losses, resulting in degradation of water quality and climate pollution. A better understanding of N application rates and crop and environmental response is needed to optimize management of agroecosystems. Here we show an orchard agroecosystem with high N use efficiency promoted substantial gains in carbon (C) storage, thereby lowering net global warming potential (GWP). We conducted a 5-year whole-system analysis comparing reduced (224 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and intensive (309 kg N ha-1 yr-1) fertilizer N rates in a California almond orchard. The intensive rate increased net primary productivity (Mg C ha-1) and significantly increased N productivity (kg N ha-1) and net N mineralization (mg N kg-1 soil d-1). Use of 15N tracers demonstrated short and long-term mechanisms of soil N retention. These low organic matter soils (0.3-0.5%) rapidly immobilized fertilizer nitrate within 36 h of N application and 15N in tree biomass recycled back into soil organic matter over five years. Both fertilizer rates resulted in high crop and total N recovery efficiencies of 90% and 98% for the reduced rate, and 72% and 80% for the intensive rate. However, there was no difference in the proportion of N losses to N inputs due to a significant gain in soil total N (TN) in the intensive rate. Higher soil TN significantly increased net N mineralization and a larger gain in soil organic carbon (SOC) from the intensive rate offset nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, leading to significantly lower net GWP of -1.64 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1 compared to -1.22 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1 for the reduced rate. Our study demonstrates increased N cycling and climate mitigation from intensive fertilizer N use in this orchard agroecosystem, implying a fundamentally different result than seen in conventional annual cropping systems.

RevDate: 2020-03-21

Cecchi L, D'Amato G, I Annesi-Maesano (2020)

Climate change and outdoor aeroallergens related to allergy and asthma. Taking the exposome into account.

RevDate: 2020-03-21

Kuefner W, Hofmann AM, Geist J, et al (2020)

Corrigendum to "Evaluating climate change impacts on mountain lakes by applying the new silicification value to paleolimnological samples"[Sci. Total Environ. 715 (2020), 136913].

RevDate: 2020-03-20

Martin G, Reilly KC, JA Gilliland (2020)

Impact of awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health: a scoping review protocol.

JBI database of systematic reviews and implementation reports, 18(3):516-522.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this scoping review is to identify and describe the existing literature on the impact of the overarching awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health and well-being.

INTRODUCTION: Children are widely acknowledged as being disproportionately at risk to the effects of climate change, yet research overlooks the impact that climate change has on their mental health. Children's overarching awareness of climate change, and its global effects, may influence their mental health and well-being.

INCLUSION CRITERIA: This review will include all research that addresses school-aged children's (aged 3-19) mental-health issues stemming from an awareness of climate change. It will not include research that examines direct impacts of climate change on children's mental health, such as trauma from a specific climate-related event.

METHODS: Searches will be conducted across eight research databases (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, Embase, GreenFILE, PubMed, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus) and three unpublished/gray literature databases (ProQuest Dissertations and Theses,, and OpenGrey). Data will be extracted for author(s), year of publication, country of origin, purpose, population, methodology, concepts of interest, outcomes, and key findings relating to the scoping review objectives. Findings will be presented as a narrative summary.

RevDate: 2020-03-20

Filazzola A, Matter SF, J Roland (2020)

Inclusion of trophic interactions increases the vulnerability of an alpine butterfly species to climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is expected to have significant and complex impacts on ecological communities. In addition to direct effects of climate on species, there can also be indirect effects through an intermediary species, such as in host-plant interactions. Indirect effects are expected to be more pronounced in alpine environments because these ecosystems are sensitive to temperature changes and there are limited areas for migration of both species (i.e. closed systems), and because of simpler trophic interactions. We tested the hypothesis that climate change will reduce the range of an alpine butterfly (Parnassius smintheus) because of indirect effects through its host plant (Sedum sp.). To test for direct and indirect effects, we used the simulations of climate change to assess the distribution of P. smintheus with and without Sedum sp. We also compared the projected ranges of P. smintheus to four other butterfly species that are found in the alpine, but that are generalists feeding on many plant genera. We found that P. smintheus gained distributional area in climate-only models, but these gains were significantly reduced with the inclusion of Sedum sp. and in dry-climate scenarios which resulted in a reduction in net area. When compared to the more generalist butterfly species, P. smintheus exhibited the largest loss in suitable habitat. Our findings support the importance of including indirect effects in modelling species distributions in response to climate change. We highlight the potentially large and still neglected impacts climate change can have on the trophic structure of communities, which can lead to significant losses of biodiversity. In the future, communities will continue to favour species that are generalists as climate change induces asynchronies in the migration of species.

RevDate: 2020-03-20

Li M, He J, Zhao Z, et al (2020)

Predictive modelling of the distribution of Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. under climate change reveals a range expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum.

PeerJ, 8:e8729 pii:8729.

Background: The knowledge of distributional dynamics of living organisms is a prerequisite for protecting biodiversity and for the sustainable use of biotic resources. Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. is a small group of shrubby, yellow-flowered species distributed mainly in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Plants in this section are both horticulturally and ecologically important.

Methods: Using past, present, and future environmental variables and data with Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modeling, we evaluated the importance of the environmental variables on the section's estimated distributions, thus simulating its distributional dynamics over time. The contractions and expansions of suitable habitat between the past and future scenarios and the present were then compared.

Results and Discussion: The models revealed that the areas with high and moderate suitability currently encompass about 725,110 km2. The distribution centroid location varies between points in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia during the different scenarios. Elevation, Mean UV-B of Lowest Month, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter were major factors determining the section's distribution. Our modeling indicated that Clematis sect. Fruticella underwent a significant range contraction during the last interglacial period, and then expanded during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to amounts like those of the present. Cold, dry, and relatively stable climate, as well as steppe or desert steppe environments may have facilitated range expansion of this cold-adapted, drought-resistant plant taxon during the LGM. Predicted future scenarios show little change in the amounts of suitable habitat for Clematis sect. Fruticella. This study aids understanding of the distributional dynamics of Clematis sect. Fruticella, and the results will help the conservation and sustainable use of these important woody plants in Chinese arid and semiarid areas.

RevDate: 2020-03-20

Fan JL, Zeng B, Hu JW, et al (2020)

The impact of climate change on residential energy consumption in urban and rural divided southern and northern China.

Environmental geochemistry and health pii:10.1007/s10653-019-00430-3 [Epub ahead of print].

In different regions of China, climate change has various influences on urban and rural residential energy consumption, which also shows that the research on it could be profoundly vital in order to formulate the energy-saving and emission-reducing policies. Based the provincial panel data from 2000-2016, the extended stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (extended STIRPAT) model was utilized to evaluate the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in different Chinese regions. The results show that: (1) during 2000 to 2016, the urban and rural energy consumption enlarged by 878.83 billion kWh and 488.98 billion kWh, respectively. In addition, electricity and oil have occupied more proportion in urban energy consumption, while coal still plays an important role in rural residential energy consumption (28.2%). (2) Heating degree day (HDD) and cooling degree day (CDD) have positive influences on urban and rural residential energy consumption in different areas, and the elastic coefficients are 0.028-0.371 and 0.066-0.158, respectively. (3) The elastic coefficient of CDD in urban areas of southern regions (0.158) is much larger than that in northern regions (0.068).

RevDate: 2020-03-18

Jiménez S, Fattahi M, Bedis K, et al (2020)

Interactional Effects of Climate Change Factors on the Water Status, Photosynthetic Rate, and Metabolic Regulation in Peach.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:43.

Environmental stress factors caused by climate change affect plant growth and crop production, and pose a growing threat to sustainable agriculture, especially for tree crops. In this context, we sought to investigate the responses to climate change of two Prunus rootstocks (GF677 and Adesoto) budded with Catherina peach cultivar. Plants were grown in 15 L pots in temperature gradient greenhouses for an 18 days acclimation period after which six treatments were applied: [CO2 levels (400 versus 700 µmol mol-1), temperature (ambient versus ambient + 4°C), and water availability (well irrigated versus drought)]. After 23 days, the effects of stress were evaluated as changes in physiological and biochemical traits, including expression of relevant genes. Stem water potential decreased under drought stress in plants grafted on GF677 and Adesoto rootstocks; however, elevated CO2 and temperature affected plant water content differently in both combinations. The photosynthetic rate of plants grafted on GF677 increased under high CO2, but decreased under high temperature and drought conditions. The photosynthetic rates of plants grafted onto Adesoto were only affected by drought treatment. Furthermore, in GF677-Catherina plants, elevated CO2 alleviated the effect of drought, whereas in those grafted onto Adesoto, the same condition produced acclimation in the rate. Stomatal conductance decreased under high CO2 and drought stress in both grafted rootstocks, and the combination of these conditions improved water-use efficiency. Changes in the sugar content in scion leaves and roots were significantly different under the stress conditions in both combinations. Meanwhile, the expression of most of the assessed genes was significantly affected by treatment. Regarding genotypes, GF677 rootstock showed more changes at the molecular and transcriptomic level than did Adesoto rootstock. A coordinated shift was found between the physiological status and the transcriptomic responses. This study revealed adaptive responses to climate change at the physiological, metabolic, and transcriptomic levels in two Prunus rootstocks budded with 'Catherina'. Overall, these results demonstrate the resilient capacity and plasticity of these contrasting genotypes, which can be further used to combat ongoing climate changes and support sustainable peach production.

RevDate: 2020-03-18

Hereme R, Morales-Navarro S, Ballesteros G, et al (2020)

Fungal Endophytes Exert Positive Effects on Colobanthus quitensis Under Water Stress but Neutral Under a Projected Climate Change Scenario in Antarctica.

Frontiers in microbiology, 11:264.

Functional symbiosis is considered one of the successful mechanisms by which plants that inhabit extreme environment improve their ability to tolerate different types of stress. One of the most conspicuous type of symbiosis is the endophyticism. This interaction has been noted to play a role in the adaptation of the native vascular plant Colobanthus quitensis to the stressful environments of Antarctica, characterized by low temperatures and extreme aridity. Projections of climate change for this ecosystem indicate that abiotic conditions will be less limiting due to an increase in temperature and water availability in the soil. Due to this decrease in stress induced by the climate change, it has been suggested that the positive role of fungal endophytes on performance of C. quitensis plants would decrease. In this study, we evaluated the role of endophytic fungi on osmoprotective molecules (sugar production, proline, oxidative stress) and gene expression (CqNCED1, CqABCG25, and CqRD22) as well as physiological traits (stomatal opening, net photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance) in individuals of C. quitensis. Individual plants of C. quitensis with (E+) and without (E-) endophytic fungi were exposed to simulated conditions of increased water availability (W+), having the current limiting water condition (W-) in Antarctica as control. The results reveal an endophyte-mediated lower oxidative stress, higher production of sugars and proline in plants. In addition, E+ plants showed differential expressions in genes related with drought stress response, which was more evident in W- than in W+. These parameters corresponded with increased physiological mechanisms such as higher net photosynthesis, stomatal opening and conductance under presence of endophytes (E+) as well as the projected water condition (W+) for Antarctica. These results suggest that the presence of fungal endophytes plays a positive role in favoring tolerance to drought in C. quitensis. However, this positive role would be diminished if the stress factor is relaxed, suggesting that the role of endophytes could be less important under a future scenario of climate change in Antarctica with higher soil water availability.

RevDate: 2020-03-18

Harkness C, Semenov MA, Areal F, et al (2020)

Adverse weather conditions for UK wheat production under climate change.

Agricultural and forest meteorology, 282-283:107862.

Winter wheat is an important crop in the UK, suited to the typical weather conditions in the current climate. In a changing climate the increased frequency and severity of adverse weather events, which are often localised, are considered a major threat to wheat production. In the present study we assessed a range of adverse weather conditions, which can significantly affect yield, under current and future climates based on adverse weather indices. We analysed changes in the frequency, magnitude and spatial patterns of 10 adverse weather indices, at 25 sites across the UK, using climate scenarios from the CMIP5 ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future UK climate is expected to remain favourable for wheat production, with most adverse weather indicators reducing in magnitude by the mid-21st century. Hotter and drier summers would improve sowing and harvesting conditions and reduce the risk of lodging. The probability of late frosts and heat stress during reproductive and grain filling periods would likely remain small in 2050. Wetter winter and spring could cause issues with waterlogging. The severity of drought stress during reproduction would generally be lower in 2050, however localised differences suggest it is important to examine drought at a small spatial scale. Prolonged water stress does not increase considerably in the UK, as may be expected in other parts of Europe. Climate projections based on the CMIP5 ensemble reveal considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of adverse weather conditions including waterlogging, drought and water stress. The variation in adverse weather conditions due to GCMs was generally greater than between emissions scenarios. Accordingly, CMIP5 ensembles should be used in the assessment of adverse weather conditions for crop production to indicate the full range of possible impacts, which a limited number of GCMs may not provide.

RevDate: 2020-03-18

Gartin M, Larson KL, Brewis A, et al (2020)

Climate Change as an Involuntary Exposure: A Comparative Risk Perception Study from Six Countries across the Global Development Gradient.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(6): pii:ijerph17061894.

Climate change has been referred to as an involuntary exposure, meaning people do not voluntarily put themselves at risk for climate-related ill health or reduced standard of living. The purpose of this study is to examine people's risk perceptions and related beliefs regarding (1) the likelihood of different risks occurring at different times and places and (2) collective (government) responsibility and personal efficacy in dealing with climate change, as well as (3) explore the ways in which climate risk may be amplified when posed against individual health and well-being. Previous research on this topic has largely focused on one community or one nation state, and so a unique characteristic of this study is the comparison between six different city (country) sites by their development and national wealth. Here, we collected 401 surveys from Phoenix (USA), Brisbane (Australia), Wellington (New Zealand), Shanghai (China), Viti Levu (Fiji), and Mexico City (Mexico). Results suggest that the hyperopia effect characterized the sample from each study site but was more pronounced in developed sites, suggesting that the more developed sites employ a broader perspective when approaching ways to mitigate their risk against climate-related health and well-being impacts.

RevDate: 2020-03-17

Kusunoki S, Ose T, M Hosaka (2020)

Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation.

Scientific reports, 10(1):4802 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-61792-8.

The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the 'tipping year' Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).

RevDate: 2020-03-17

Dai C, Qin XS, Lu WT, et al (2020)

Assessing adaptation measures on agricultural water productivity under climate change: A case study of Huai River Basin, China.

The Science of the total environment, 721:137777 pii:S0048-9697(20)31289-4 [Epub ahead of print].

This study explored an integrated framework to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures on the water productivity (WP) of the agricultural water management (AWM) system in the Huai river basin of China considering climate change impact. The adaptation measures include optimization of cropping pattern (OCP) and upgradation of irrigation techniques (UIT). The delta change method was used to downscale the climate variables from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of general circulation models (GCMs) during 2021-2050, the water footprint theory was used to estimate the spatial distribution of blue water to calculate the WP, and the nonlinear optimization model was used to seek optimal cropping pattern aiming at maximizing the system's WP. The changes in WP due to climate change and adaptation measures (e.g. combinations of OCP and UIT) were compared. Results indicated that WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be 4.56% and 6.51% lower than those under the benchmark scenario, respectively. The mitigation rates to the negative impact of climate change on WP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would be (1) 3.05% and 3.37% for the combination of spay irrigation technique and OCP, and (2) 4.34% and 4.59% for the combination of drip irrigation technique and OCP, respectively. It was revealed that the combination of drip irrigation and cropping pattern optimization could largely offset the adverse effect from climate change on WP under RCP4.5. Under such a scenario, the total plant areas of wheat and maize would reduce over the basin and so would the net export of crops in the basin; this would lead to a decrease in the crop trade benefit of 7.07 × 109 $ and a relief of 7.50 × 109 m3 of blue water loss. This study results could offer strategic decision support for long-term sustainable AWM of Huai river basin in a changing environment.

RevDate: 2020-03-16

Villette J, Cuéllar T, Verdeil JL, et al (2020)

Grapevine Potassium Nutrition and Fruit Quality in the Context of Climate Change.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:123.

Potassium (K+) nutrition is of relevant interest for winegrowers because it influences grapevine growth, berry composition, as well as must and wine quality. Indeed, wine quality strongly depends on berry composition at harvest. However, K+ content of grape berries increased steadily over the last decades, in part due to climate change. Currently, the properties and qualities of many fruits are also impacted by environment. In grapevine, this disturbs berry properties resulting in unbalanced wines with poor organoleptic quality and low acidity. This requires a better understanding of the molecular basis of K+ accumulation and its control along grape berry development. This mini-review summarizes our current knowledge on K+ nutrition in relation with fruit quality in the context of a changing environment.

RevDate: 2020-03-15

Singh RK, Sinha VSP, Joshi PK, et al (2020)

Modelling Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) in response to climate change scenarios for the SAARC nations.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(4):236 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-8144-2.

Agriculture and forestry are the two major land use classes providing sustenance to the human population. With the pace of development, these two land use classes continue to change over time. Land use change is a dynamic process under the influence of multiple drivers including climate change. Therefore, tracing the trajectory of the changes is challenging. The artificial neural network (ANN) has successfully been applied for tracing such a dynamic process to capture nonlinear responses. We test the application of the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN) to project the future Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) for the year 2050 for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations which is a geopolitical union of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) use much frequently the term 'AFOLU' in their policy documents. Hence, we restricted our land use classification scheme as AFOLU for assessing the influence of climate change scenarios of the IPCC fifth assessment report (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). Agricultural land would increase in all the SAARC nations, with the highest increase in Pakistan and Maldives; moderate increase in Afghanistan, India and Nepal; and the least increase in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. The forestry land use will witness a decreasing trend under all scenarios in all of the SAARC nations with varying levels of changes. The study is expected to assist planners and policymakers to develop nations' specific strategy to proportionate land use classes to meet various needs on a sustainable basis.

RevDate: 2020-03-14

Tsai HY, Rubenstein DR, Fan YM, et al (2020)

Locally-adapted reproductive photoperiodism determines population vulnerability to climate change in burying beetles.

Nature communications, 11(1):1398 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-15208-w.

Understanding how phenotypic traits vary among populations inhabiting different environments is critical for predicting a species' vulnerability to climate change. Yet, little is known about the key functional traits that determine the distribution of populations and the main mechanisms-phenotypic plasticity vs. local adaptation-underlying intraspecific functional trait variation. Using the Asian burying beetle Nicrophorus nepalensis, we demonstrate that mountain ranges differing in elevation and latitude offer unique thermal environments in which two functional traits-thermal tolerance and reproductive photoperiodism-interact to shape breeding phenology. We show that populations on different mountain ranges maintain similar thermal tolerances, but differ in reproductive photoperiodism. Through common garden and reciprocal transplant experiments, we confirm that reproductive photoperiodism is locally adapted and not phenotypically plastic. Accordingly, year-round breeding populations on mountains of intermediate elevation are likely to be most susceptible to future warming because maladaptation occurs when beetles try to breed at warmer temperatures.

RevDate: 2020-03-14

Charlier P, Héry-Arnaud G, Coppens Y, et al (2020)

Global warming and planetary health: An open letter to the WHO from scientific and indigenous people urging for paleo-microbiology studies.

Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases pii:S1567-1348(20)30115-5 [Epub ahead of print].

This article, written by a collective of international researchers and worldwide representatives of indigenous populations, is an open letter to the WHO, based on the latest elements from the scientific literature, and the latest climatological data. It takes stock of the health consequences of global warming, and urges research organizations to take an interest in infectious agents formerly stored in the layers of ground (frozen or not) and now mobilized, then released from a distance.

RevDate: 2020-03-13

Magel JMT, Dimoff SA, JK Baum (2020)

Direct and indirect effects of climate change-amplified pulse heat stress events on coral reef fish communities.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change-amplified temperature anomalies pose an imminent threat to coral reef ecosystems. While much focus has been placed on the effects of heat stress on scleractinian corals-including bleaching, mortality, and loss of reef structural complexity-and many studies have documented changes to reef fish communities arising indirectly from shifts in benthic composition, the direct impacts of heat stress on reef fish are much less well understood. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect effects of heat stress on reef fishes, using underwater visual censuses of coral reef fish communities conducted before, during, and after the 2015-2016 El Niño-induced global coral bleaching event. Surveys took place at the epicentre of this event, at 16 sites on Kiritimati (Republic of Kiribati; central equatorial Pacific) spanning across a gradient of local human disturbance. We expected that heat stress would have both direct and indirect negative effects on the reef fish community-with direct effects resulting from physiological stress during the event, and indirect effects manifesting afterwards as a consequence of coral mortality-and that the ability of fish communities to recover following the heat stress would depend on levels of local human disturbance. We found that total reef fish biomass and abundance declined by> 50% during heat stress, likely as a result of vertical migration of fish to cooler waters. One year after the cessation of heat stress, however, total biomass, abundance, and species richness had recovered to-or even exceeded-pre-heat stress levels. However, the biomass of corallivores declined by over 70% following severe coral loss, and reefs exposed to higher levels of local human disturbance showed impaired recovery following the heat stress. These findings enhance understanding of the projected impacts of climate change-associated marine heatwaves on reef fishes, and highlight the interacting effects of local and global stressors on this vital component of coral reef ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-03-13

Hunt JR, Celestina C, JA Kirkegaard (2020)

The realities of climate change, conservation agriculture and soil carbon sequestration.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The catastrophic bushfires experienced in south eastern Australia during the southern summer of 2020 have provided humanity with a timely reminder of the true horrors that can unfold in a rapidly warming world. As the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and offset them with carbon sequestration gains urgency, much is made of the potential for agricultural soils to act as a carbon sinks (Poulton et al. 2018). It is therefore timely that the study of Sun et al. (2020) in this issue delivers a dose of realism about the potential for conservation agriculture to sequester carbon in cropping soils across the globe, and its relationship with agricultural productivity.

RevDate: 2020-03-13

Vandepaer L, Panos E, Bauer C, et al (2020)

Energy system pathways with low environmental impacts and limited costs: minimizing climate change impacts produces environmental co-benefits and challenges in toxicity and metal depletion categories.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Environmental indicators based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) method are integrated into an energy system model (ESM). This integration allows for the generation of comprehensive environmental assessments of future energy systems and for determining energy scenarios with low environmental impacts and moderate cost increases. In Switzerland, which is used as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, it is possible to generate pathways with a 5% cost increase on the cost-optimal situation, causing an impact score for climate change that is 2% higher than the minimum feasible solution. The minimization of life-cycle impacts on climate change generates substantial environmental co-benefits with regards to human health, air pollution, ozone depletion, acidification, and land transformation. However, that minimization also creates trade-offs that exacerbate the effects of metal depletion and human toxicity caused by upstream extraction and manufacturing linked to technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Finally, ambitious reduction targets of 95% direct (i.e., within the country) CO2 emissions for the year 2050 might still result in substantial climate change impacts should emissions embodied in the infrastructure and upstream supply chain not be jointly mitigated jointly.

RevDate: 2020-03-13

Sutton B, Mulvenna V, Voronoff D, et al (2020)

Acting on climate change and health in Victoria.

The Medical journal of Australia [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-03-13

Shahbaz P, Boz I, S Ul Haq (2020)

Adaptation options for small livestock farmers having large ruminants (cattle and buffalo) against climate change in Central Punjab Pakistan.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-08112-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is not a myth anymore and changing with every passing year regardless of the efforts to mitigate its root causes. Livestock being a key source of employment to a large poor world population also contributes to food security and poverty eradication. With the changing climate livestock farmers are also making their farms compatible to the new natural ecosystem. Therefore, this study investigated how small livestock farmers having large ruminants inventory perceive changes in climate, which strategies they adapt and the factors influencing the adaptation of climate changes strategies in livestock. Primary data was collected from 180 small livestock farmers of Central Punjab, and multiple (step-wise) regression analysis was used to determine the factors affecting adaptation of climate change strategies. Livestock farmers are also well aware of the climate change as majority of the farmers (63.4% and 71.4%) perceived an increase in temperature and precipitation, respectively. Livestock farmers made an attempt to adopt conventional climate change strategies such as mix farming, reduction in animals, provision of more drinking water, use of tree shades, livestock diversification, use of muddy roof, and floor in order to cope with climate changes. The adoption of these measures was significantly influenced by animal inventory, climate knowledge, livestock working hours, livestock experience, distance of veterinary hospital, and livestock-related training/workshops. Government needs to increase technical and logistic capacity of veterinary doctors, and should create awareness among small livestock farmers through media.

RevDate: 2020-03-13

Ferreira NCR, JH Miranda (2020)

Potential occurrence of Puccinia sorghi in corn crops in Paraná, under scenarios of climate change.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-01880-6 [Epub ahead of print].

In the face of climate change scenarios, it is important to evaluate the possibility of an increase in the incidence of corn crop diseases and to promote studies aimed at creating mitigation measures. This paper aims to study the impacts that regional climate changes may have on the potential occurrence of corn common rust (Puccinia sorghi), in the region of Castro, Paraná (Brazil). The Eta climate model was driven by the global model CanESM2. We use the Historical simulation of the EtaCanESM2 model from 1981 to 2005, and future projections from 2046 to 2070 to simulate the occurrence of common rust. The criteria was adopted to simulate the common rust disease favored in environments with the minimum temperature lower than 8 °C, the maximum temperature higher than 32 °C, average temperature between 16 and 23 °C, and relative humidity higher than 95%. In Brazil, there are two different seasons for corn crop (Normaland Safrinha). Results show that relative humidity and minimum temperature simulated by the model presented good skills, approaching the observed data. Compared to the Historical simulation, the projections show a tendency to increase of maximum and minimum temperature in the future, and a tendency to decrease relative humidity. There is an increase in the number of days with the potential for the occurrence of the disease. The distribution of days with favorable conditions to rust disease tends to change in the future. In the Normaland Safrinhaseasons, there is a tendency to increase the number of days with favorable conditions to common rust occurrence. The influence of planting time is greater in Historical simulation when compared to future scenarios. The Safrinhaseason may present more days with the potential for the occurrence of common rust in the future than the Normalseason.

RevDate: 2020-03-13

Gyles C (2020)

Climate Change - A response.

The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne, 61(3):225.

RevDate: 2020-03-13

Wilson M (2020)

Climate Change.

The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne, 61(3):225.

RevDate: 2020-03-13

Stacy A (2020)

Climate change in common.

Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien, 66(3):164.

RevDate: 2020-03-12

Liu L, Liao J, Wu Y, et al (2020)

Breeding range shift of the red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) under climate change.

PloS one, 15(3):e0229984 pii:PONE-D-19-15791.

The red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis) is an endangered species listed by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) HARRIS J (2013). The largest population of this species is distributed mainly in China and Russia, which is called continental population SU L (2012)-Curt D (1996). This population is migratory, which migrates from its breeding range located in Northeast China and Southern Russia, to the wintering range in the south of China to spend the winter every year. The breeding range of this species is critical for red-crowned crane to survive and maintain its population. Previous studies showed the negative effects of habitat loss and degradation on the breeding area of red-crowned crane Ma Z (1998), Claire M (2019). Climate change may also threat the survival of this endangered species. Previous studies investigated the impacts of climate change on the breeding range or wintering range in China Wu (2012), [1]. However, no study was conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the whole breeding range of this species. Here, we used bioclimatic niche modeling to predict the potential breeding range of red-crowned crane under current climate conditions and project onto future climate change scenarios. Our results show that the breeding range of the continental population of red-crowned crane will shift northward over this century and lose almost all of its current actual breeding range. The climate change will also change the country owning the largest portion of breeding range from China to Russia, suggesting that Russia should take more responsibility to preserve this endangered species in the future.

RevDate: 2020-03-12

Seritan AL, I Seritan (2020)

The Time Is Now: Climate Change and Mental Health.

RevDate: 2020-03-11

Sorensen C, Saunik S, Sehgal M, et al (2018)

Climate Change and Women's Health: Impacts and Opportunities in India.

GeoHealth, 2(10):283-297 pii:GH287.

Climate change impacts on health, including increased exposures to heat, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and altered vector-borne disease transmission, reduced water quality, and decreased food security, affect men and women differently due to biologic, socioeconomic, and cultural factors. In India, where rapid environmental changes are taking place, climate change threatens to widen existing gender-based health disparities. Integration of a gendered perspective into existing climate, development, and disaster-risk reduction policy frameworks can decrease negative health outcomes. Modifying climate risks requires multisector coordination, improvement in data acquisition, monitoring of gender specific targets, and equitable stakeholder engagement. Empowering women as agents of social change can improve mitigation and adaptation policy interventions.

RevDate: 2020-03-11

Muhling BA, Jacobs J, Stock CA, et al (2017)

Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high-emission climate change scenario.

GeoHealth, 1(7):278-296 pii:GH235.

Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.

RevDate: 2020-03-11

Anenberg SC, Weinberger KR, Roman H, et al (2017)

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change.

GeoHealth, 1(3):80-92 pii:GH221.

Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration-response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000-35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at $10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of $10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of $346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen-related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen-related health impacts.

RevDate: 2020-03-12

Bosi C, Pezzopane JRM, PC Sentelhas (2020)

Silvopastoral system with Eucalyptus as a strategy for mitigating the effects of climate change on Brazilian pasturelands.

Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias, 92(suppl 1):e20180425 pii:S0001-37652020000201001.

The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of Eucalyptus trees in a silvopastoral system on the microclimate and the capacity of that to mitigate the effects of climate change on pasturelands. This study included an open pasture of Piatã palisadegrass and an adjacent pasture that contained both palisadegrass and East-to-West rows of Eucalyptus trees, with 15 m between rows, 2 m between trees within rows. The micrometeorological measurements were collected at several distances from the tree rows and in the open pasture. The silvopastoral system was associated with greater between-row shading when solar declination was high and greater near-tree shading when solar declination was around -22°. Both soil heat flux and temperature were influenced by solar radiation, wind speed, and the ability of tree canopies to reduce radiation losses. Wind speed was consistently lower in the silvopastoral system, owing to the windbreak effect of the Eucalyptus trees. The present study demonstrated that silvopastoral systems can be used to attenuate the effects of climate change, as trees can protect pastureland from intense solar radiation and wind, thereby reducing evapotranspiration and, consequently, improving soil water availability for the understory crop.

RevDate: 2020-03-11

Gorris ME, Treseder KK, Zender CS, et al (2019)

Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change.

GeoHealth, 3(10):308-327 pii:GH2130.

Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate-limited endemicity will more than double, the number of affected states will increase from 12 to 17, and the number of Valley fever cases will increase by 50%. The Valley fever endemic region will expand north into dry western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Precipitation will limit the disease from spreading into states farther east and along the central and northern Pacific coast. This is the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States. Our predictive model of Valley fever endemicity may provide guidance to public health officials to establish disease surveillance programs and design mitigation efforts to limit the impacts of this disease.

RevDate: 2020-03-11

Mohan V, Hardee K, C Savitzky (2020)

Building community resilience to climate change: The role of a Population-Health-Environment programme in supporting the community response to cyclone Haruna in Madagascar.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 12(1):730 pii:JAMBA-12-730.

RevDate: 2020-03-10

Baker JS, Havlík P, Beach R, et al (2018)

Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios.

Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site], 13(6):.

Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.

RevDate: 2020-03-10

Yang F, M Antonietti (2020)

Artificial Humic Acids: Sustainable Materials against Climate Change.

Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany), 7(5):1902992 pii:ADVS1522.

Humic acid, as a natural organic matter, is widely distributed in surface soil, oceans, rivers, and other ecological environments throughout the whole earth ecosystem. Humic acid provides abundant organic carbon and helps to maintain a hydrated, pH and redox buffered environment hosting the soil microbiome. Humic acid is however also a largely ignored polymer material full of exciting functional properties, and its scale is enormous. This perspective article discusses its synthesis and management as a tool to tackle parts of the climate crisis as well its use in technological applications, as made by chemical conversion of agricultural side products to artificial humic acids.

RevDate: 2020-03-10

Yadav S, A Mishra (2020)

Ectopic expression of C4 photosynthetic pathway genes improves carbon assimilation and alleviate stress tolerance for future climate change.

Physiology and molecular biology of plants : an international journal of functional plant biology, 26(2):195-209.

Alteration in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and other environmental factors are the significant cues of global climate change. Environmental factors affect the most fundamental biological process including photosynthesis and different metabolic pathways. The feeding of the rapidly growing world population is another challenge which imposes pressure to improve productivity and quality of the existing crops. C4 plants are considered the most productive, containing lower photorespiration, and higher water-use & N-assimilation efficiencies, compared to C3 plants. Besides, the C4-photosynthetic genes not only play an important role in carbon assimilation but also modulate abiotic stresses. In this review, fundamental three metabolic processes (C4, C3, and CAM) of carbon dioxide assimilation, the evolution of C4-photosynthetic genes, effect of elevated CO2 on photosynthesis, and overexpression of C4-photosynthetic genes for higher photosynthesis were discussed. Kranz-anatomy is considered an essential prerequisite for the terrestrial C4 carbon assimilation, but single-celled C4 plant species changed this well-established paradigm. C4 plants are insensitive to an elevated CO2 stress condition but performed better under stress conditions. Overexpression of essential C4-photosynthetic genes such as PEPC, PPDK, and NADP-ME in C3 plants like Arabidopsis, tobacco, rice, wheat, and potato not only improved photosynthesis but also provided tolerance to various environmental stresses, especially drought. The review provides useful information for sustainable productivity and yield under elevated CO2 environment, which to be explored further for CO2 assimilation and also abiotic stress tolerance. Additionally, it provides a better understanding to explore C4-photosynthetic gene(s) to cope with global warming and prospective adverse climatic changes.

RevDate: 2020-03-10

Battersby J, J Hunter-Adams (2020)

No Looking Back: [Food]ways Forward for Healthy African Cities in Light of Climate Change.

RevDate: 2020-03-10

Li X, Li Y, G Li (2020)

A scientometric review of the research on the impacts of climate change on water quality during 1998-2018.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-08176-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Research on the impacts of climate change on water quality helps to better formulate water quality strategies under the challenge of an uncertain future, which is critical for human survival and development. As a result, in recent years, there has been growing attention given to research in the field, and the attention has led to an increasing number of publications, which is why a systematic literature review on this topic has been proposed in the current paper. This study reviewed 2998 related articles extracted from the Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-E) database from 1998 to 2018 to analyse and visualize historical trend evolution, current research hotspots, and promising ideas for future research by combining a traditional literature review, bibliometric analysis, and scientific knowledge mapping. The results revealed that the impacts of climate change on water quality mainly included the aggravation of eutrophication, changes in the flow, hydrological and thermal conditions, and the destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity. Further exploration of the influence mechanism of climate change on cyanobacteria is an emerging research topic. Additionally, the water quality conditions of shallow lakes and drinking water are promising future research objects. In the context of climate change, the general rules of water quality management and the scientific planning of land use are of great significance and need to be further studied. This study provides a practical and valuable reference for researchers to help with the selection of future research topics, which may contribute to further development in this field.

RevDate: 2020-03-10

Phillips N (2020)

Climate change made Australia's devastating fire season 30% more likely.

RevDate: 2020-03-10

Schlichtholz P (2020)

Author Correction: Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming.

Scientific reports, 10(1):4732 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-61544-8.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2020-03-10

McDonough LK, Santos IR, Andersen MS, et al (2020)

Changes in global groundwater organic carbon driven by climate change and urbanization.

Nature communications, 11(1):1279 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-14946-1.

Climate change and urbanization can increase pressures on groundwater resources, but little is known about how groundwater quality will change. Here, we use a global synthesis (n = 9,404) to reveal the drivers of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is an important component of water chemistry and substrate for microorganisms that control biogeochemical reactions. Dissolved inorganic chemistry, local climate and land use explained ~ 31% of observed variability in groundwater DOC, whilst aquifer age explained an additional 16%. We identify a 19% increase in DOC associated with urban land cover. We predict major groundwater DOC increases following changes in precipitation and temperature in key areas relying on groundwater. Climate change and conversion of natural or agricultural areas to urban areas will decrease groundwater quality and increase water treatment costs, compounding existing constraints on groundwater resources.

RevDate: 2020-03-10

Canelón SP, MR Boland (2020)

A Systematic Literature Review of Factors Affecting the Timing of Menarche: The Potential for Climate Change to Impact Women's Health.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(5): pii:ijerph17051703.

Menarche is the first occurrence of a woman's menstruation, an event that symbolizes reproductive capacity and the transition from childhood into womanhood. The global average age for menarche is 12 years and this has been declining in recent years. Many factors that affect the timing menarche in girls could be affected by climate change. A systematic literature review was performed regarding the timing of menarche and four publication databases were interrogated: EMBASE, SCOPUS, PubMed, and Cochrane Reviews. Themes were identified from 112 articles and related to environmental causes of perturbations in menarche (either early or late), disease causes and consequences of perturbations, and social causes and consequences. Research from climatology was incorporated to describe how climate change events, including increased hurricanes, avalanches/mudslides/landslides, and extreme weather events could alter the age of menarche by disrupting food availability or via increased toxin/pollutant release. Overall, our review revealed that these perturbations in the timing of menarche are likely to increase the disease burden for women in four key areas: mental health, fertility-related conditions, cardiovascular disease, and bone health. In summary, the climate does have the potential to impact women's health through perturbation in the timing of menarche and this, in turn, will affect women's risk of disease in future.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )