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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 20 Oct 2018 at 01:43 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2018-10-19

Sirois-Delisle C, JT Kerr (2018)

Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate.

Scientific reports, 8(1):14464 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-32665-y.

Climate change has shaped bee distributions over the past century. Here, we conducted the first species-specific assessment of future climate change impacts on North American bumblebee distributions, using the most recent global change scenarios developed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We assessed potential shifts in bumblebee species distributions with models generated using Maxent. We tested different assumptions about bumblebee species' dispersal capacities, drawing on observed patterns of range shifts to date, dispersal rates observed for bumblebee queens, and, lastly, assuming unlimited dispersal. Models show significant contractions of current ranges even under scenarios in which dispersal rates were high. Results suggest that dispersal rates may not suffice for bumblebees to track climate change as rapidly as required under any IPCC scenario for future climate change. Areas where species losses are projected overlap for many species and climate scenarios, and are concentrated in eastern parts of the continent. Models also show overlap for range expansions across many species, suggesting the presence of "hotspots" where management activities could benefit many species, across all climate scenarios. Broad-scale strategies are likely to be necessary to improve bumblebee conservation prospects under climate change.

RevDate: 2018-10-18

Piacentini RD, Della Ceca LS, A Ipiña (2018)

Climate change and its relationship with non-melanoma skin cancers.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is affecting both the environment and human behaviour. One significant impact is related to health, as detailed in the IPCC 2014 report. In the present work, and as a contribution to this commemorative special issue to Prof. Dr Jan van der Leun, we present the results of the squamous (SCC) and basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence change in relation to the ambient temperature increase. This increase is produced by global warming, mainly induced by anthropogenic atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases. We have broadened a previous study conducted by van der Leun et al. (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2008, 7, 730-733), by analysing the effective carcinogenicity of UV dose, for the period 2000-2200 and four climate change scenarios (called RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The corresponding percentage increases of the incidence of SCC for 2100 are 5.8, 10.4, 13.8 and 21.4%, and for 2200 they are 4.3, 12.1, 19.0 and 40.5%. In a similar way, the percentage increases of the incidence of BCC for 2100 are 2.8, 4.9, 6.5 and 9.9% and for 2200 they are 2.0, 5.8, 8.9 and 18.2%. We report the SCC and BCC percentage effective incidence results as a function of time, for the whole 21st century and we extended the analysis to the 22nd century, since people possibly affected (like the Z and T generations, born at the beginning of this century) will have a life expectancy extending up to the final decades of the present century and even to the first ones of the next century.

RevDate: 2018-10-18

Holopainen JK, Virjamo V, Ghimire RP, et al (2018)

Climate Change Effects on Secondary Compounds of Forest Trees in the Northern Hemisphere.

Frontiers in plant science, 9:1445.

Plant secondary compounds (PSCs), also called secondary metabolites, have high chemical and structural diversity and appear as non-volatile or volatile compounds. These compounds may have evolved to have specific physiological and ecological functions in the adaptation of plants to their growth environment. PSCs are produced by several metabolic pathways and many PSCs are specific for a few plant genera or families. In forest ecosystems, full-grown trees constitute the majority of plant biomass and are thus capable of producing significant amounts of PSCs. We summarize older literature and review recent progress in understanding the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on PSC production of forest trees and PSC behavior in forest ecosystems. The roles of different PSCs under stress and their important role in protecting plants against abiotic and biotic factors are also discussed. There was strong evidence that major climate change factors, CO2 and warming, have contradictory effects on the main PSC groups. CO2 increases phenolic compounds in foliage, but limits terpenoids in foliage and emissions. Warming decreases phenolic compounds in foliage but increases terpenoids in foliage and emissions. Other abiotic stresses have more variable effects. PSCs may help trees to adapt to a changing climate and to pressure from current and invasive pests and pathogens. Indirect adaptation comes via the effects of PSCs on soil chemistry and nutrient cycling, the formation of cloud condensation nuclei from tree volatiles and by CO2 sequestration into PSCs in the wood of living and dead forest trees.

RevDate: 2018-10-18

Gong B, Weng B, Yan D, et al (2018)

Variation of Hydrothermal Conditions under Climate Change in Naqu Prefecture, Tibet Plateau, China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(10): pii:ijerph15102271.

Analysis of the suitability of hydrothermal conditions for vegetation growth would benefit the ecological barrier construction, water resources protection and climate change adaptation. The suitability of hydrothermal conditions in Naqu Prefecture was studied based on the spatial displacement of 500 mm precipitation and 2000 °C accumulated temperature contours. Results showed that the 500 mm precipitation contour had a shifting trend toward the southwest, with a 3.3-year and 7.1-year period, respectively, in the longitudinal and latitudinal direction, and the longitude changed suddenly around 1996. The 2000 °C accumulated temperature contour had a shifting trend toward the northwest, with a 1.8-year period and a 7-year sub-period in the longitudinal direction; the longitude had a catastrophe point between 1966 and 1967, while the latitude had a catastrophe point between 2005 and 2006. When located in the same vegetation zone, the annual precipitation in Naqu Prefecture was higher than the national average, while the accumulated temperature was lower than the national average, indicating that areas with suitable hydrothermal conditions suitable for vegetation growth showed a northwestward shift tendency. This research would help to support some recommendations for plants' ecological system protection in alpine areas, and also provide guidelines for climate change adaptation.

RevDate: 2018-10-18

Butler CD (2018)

Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989⁻2013).

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(10): pii:ijerph15102266.

Background: Anthropogenic global warming, interacting with social and other environmental determinants, constitutes a profound health risk. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review for 1989⁻2013 (inclusive), the first 25 years in which this topic appeared in scientific journals. It explores the extent to which articles have identified potentially catastrophic, civilization-endangering health risks associated with climate change. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar were primarily used to identify articles which were then ranked on a three-point scale. Each score reflected the extent to which papers discussed global systemic risk. Citations were also analyzed. Results: Of 2143 analyzed papers 1546 (72%) were scored as one. Their citations (165,133) were 82% of the total. The proportion of annual papers scored as three was initially high, as were their citations but declined to almost zero by 1996, before rising slightly from 2006. Conclusions: The enormous expansion of the literature appropriately reflects increased understanding of the importance of climate change to global health. However, recognition of the most severe, existential, health risks from climate change was generally low. Most papers instead focused on infectious diseases, direct heat effects and other disciplinary-bounded phenomena and consequences, even though scientific advances have long called for more inter-disciplinary collaboration.

RevDate: 2018-10-17

Morgounov A, Sonder K, Abugalieva A, et al (2018)

Effect of climate change on spring wheat yields in North America and Eurasia in 1981-2015 and implications for breeding.

PloS one, 13(10):e0204932 pii:PONE-D-18-20202.

Wheat yield dynamic in Canada, USA, Russia and Kazakhstan from 1981 till 2015 was related to air temperature and precipitation during wheat season to evaluate the effects of climate change. The study used yield data from the provinces, states and regions and average yield from 19 spring wheat breeding/research sites. Both at production and research sites grain yield in Eurasia was two times lower compared to North America. The yearly variations in grain yield in North America and Eurasia did not correlate suggesting that higher yield in one region was normally associated with lower yield in another region. Minimum and maximum air temperature during the wheat growing season (April-August) had tendency to increase. While precipitation in April-August increased in North American sites from 289 mm in 1981-1990 to 338 mm in 2006-2015 it remained constant and low at Eurasian sites (230 and 238 mm, respectively). High temperature in June and July negatively affected grain yield in most of the sites at both continents. Climatic changes resulted in substantial changes in the dates of planting and harvesting normally leading to extension of growing season. Longer planting-harvesting period was positively associated with the grain yield for most of the locations. The climatic changes since 1981 and spring wheat responses suggest several implications for breeding. Gradual warming extends the wheat growing season and new varieties need to match this to utilize their potential. Higher rainfall during the wheat season, especially in North America, will require varieties with higher yield potential responding to moisture availability. June is a critical month for spring wheat in both regions due to the significant negative correlation of grain yield with maximum temperature and positive correlation with precipitation. Breeding for adaptation to higher temperatures during this period is an important strategy to increase yield.

RevDate: 2018-10-17

Warren M (2018)

Climate change is about to make your beer more expensive.

Nature, 562(7727):319-320.

RevDate: 2018-10-16

Zavaleta C, Berrang-Ford L, Ford J, et al (2018)

Multiple non-climatic drivers of food insecurity reinforce climate change maladaptation trajectories among Peruvian Indigenous Shawi in the Amazon.

PloS one, 13(10):e0205714 pii:PONE-D-18-12169.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions.

CONCLUSION: A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies.

RevDate: 2018-10-16

Zhang XQ, Li GQ, S DU (2018)

Predicting the influence of future climate change on the suitable distribution areas of Elaeagnus angustifolia.

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 29(10):3213-3220.

Climate change significantly affects geographic distribution of plants worldwide. Understanding the influence of climate change on the suitable areas of afforestation tree species in China and taking timely countermeasures are crucial for improving the effectiveness of afforestation. Elaeagnus angustifolia is a good species for ecological restoration of degraded lands and control of desertification. Using MaxEnt and GIS, we predicted the changes of climatically suitable areas of this species under future climate scenarios, based on 182 records from herbaria and published literatures, and 13 climatic factors from BIOCLIM, Holdridge life zone and Kira index. The results showed that the four climate scenarios in 2070s had different effects on the climatically suitable areas of this species. The suitable areas would shrink in the lowest greenhouse gas emission (RCP 2.6) scenario. The shrinking areas were mainly located in the edge of the currently suitable areas in the northwest. The suitable areas would expand in the lower (RCP 4.5), the higher (RCP 6.0) and the highest (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The expanding areas were mainly located in the northwestern arid regions of warm temperate zone, and northeastern sub-humid regions of middle temperate zone. There were obvious expansions in the northern arid and semi-arid regions of middle temperate zone, and southern humid regions of north-subtropical zone under RCP 8.5 scenario. The geographical centroids of future suitable ranges would move with a speed of 6-19 km·(10 a)-1. The altitudinal centroids were predicted to move to lower regions with a speed of 3-20 m·(10 a)-1. The stably suitable areas accounted for 83%-98% of the current distribution ranges of this species, which were generally stable under future climate change scenarios.

RevDate: 2018-10-16

Levison MM, Butler AJ, Rebellato S, et al (2018)

Development of a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Using a Public Health Lens to Determine Local Health Vulnerabilities: An Ontario Health Unit Experience.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(10): pii:ijerph15102237.

Climate change is negatively impacting the health of Canadians and is accordingly expected to have a significant impact on public health agencies and their response to these health impacts throughout the twenty-first century. While national and international research and assessments have explored the potential human health impacts of climate change, few assessments have explored the implications of climate change from a local public health perspective. An applied research approach to expand local knowledge and action of health vulnerabilities through a climate change action plan and vulnerability assessment was utilized by a local public health agency. Adoption and adaptation of the approach used may be valuable for public health organizations to assist their communities. Through completing a vulnerability assessment, an evidentiary base was generated for public health to inform adaptation actions to reduce negative health impacts and increase resiliency. Challenges in completing vulnerability assessments at the local level include the framing and scoping of health impacts and associated indicators, as well as access to internal expertise surrounding the analysis of data. While access to quantitative data may be limiting at the local level, qualitative data can enhance knowledge of local impacts, while also supporting the creation of key partnerships with community stakeholders which can ensure climate action continues beyond the scope of the vulnerability assessment.

RevDate: 2018-10-17

Aubin D, Riche C, Vande Water V, et al (2018)

The adaptive capacity of local water basin authorities to climate change: The Thau lagoon basin in France.

The Science of the total environment, 651(Pt 2):2013-2023 pii:S0048-9697(18)33951-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change exacerbates climate variability, and makes water governance more complex. The French local water management plans (SAGE) developed an integrated approach that relies on a balance between bottom-up and top-down governance. The aim of this article is to question the actual role of the local basin authorities and ask whether they are central in water governance. The Social Network Analysis of the Thau basin shows that the key actors of the SAGE, namely the Rhone-Mediterranean-Corsica Water Agency, the local water agency and the local water commission, are the most powerful actors in the management of the river basin and play a crucial brokerage role in climate change adaptation. Integrated water resource management shifted power from territorial and central authorities to functional and local managers.

RevDate: 2018-10-15

Balasubramanian M (2018)

Climate change, famine, and low-income communities challenge Sustainable Development Goals.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 2(10):e421-e422.

RevDate: 2018-10-17

Huang L, Liao FH, Lohse KA, et al (2018)

Land conservation can mitigate freshwater ecosystem services degradation due to climate change in a semiarid catchment: The case of the Portneuf River catchment, Idaho, USA.

The Science of the total environment, 651(Pt 2):1796-1809 pii:S0048-9697(18)33710-0 [Epub ahead of print].

There is increasing evidence of environmental change impacts on freshwater ecosystem services especially through land use and climate change. However, little is known about how land conservation could help mitigate adverse water-sustainability impacts. In this paper, we utilized the InVEST tool and the Residual Trends method to assess the joint effects and relative contributions of climate change and land conservation on freshwater ecosystem services in the Portneuf River catchment in Idaho, USA. We developed five hypothesized scenarios regarding gain and loss in the enrollment of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest agricultural land-retirement program in the U.S., plus riparian buffer and assessed their interactions with climate change. Results suggest that the realized water yield in the Portneuf River catchment would possibly be 56% less due to climate change and 24% less due to the decline of CRP enrollment. On the contrary, if CRP enrollment is promoted by ~30% and riparian buffer protection is implemented, the water supply reduction in the year 2050 could be changed from 56% to 26%, the total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) export would be reduced by 10% and 11%, and the total suspended sediment (TSS) reduced by 17%. This study suggests that increasing implementation of the CRP would likely preserve key freshwater ecosystem services and assist proactive mitigation, especially for semiarid regions vulnerable to changing climate conditions.

RevDate: 2018-10-17

Kosai S, E Yamasue (2018)

Global warming potential and total material requirement in metal production: Identification of changes in environmental impact through metal substitution.

The Science of the total environment, 651(Pt 2):1764-1775 pii:S0048-9697(18)33958-5 [Epub ahead of print].

In view of the increasing demand for metal use, it is of significant importance to evaluate the environmental impact of metal production. The global warming potential (GWP) in the process of metal production has often been focused upon as a major indicator for evaluating the burden on the environment. Moreover, the environmental impact and mineral exploitation arising from metal ore mining activities, which generate unavoidable mine wastes and have an impact on the ecological biodiversity, cannot be ignored. The major factors for determining the intensity of resource exploitation being the ore grades and strip ratio, the existing indicators for land use employed in the life cycle assessment (LCA) may not fully cover the criteria of the impact of metal mining on the environmental system. Therefore, this study employs the method of total material requirement (TMR) assessment, involving not only the direct and indirect material inputs but also the hidden flows, which are particularly associated with mine wastes. Firstly, the methodology of computing the TMR in the process of metal production is developed. Next, the relation between the GWP and TMR for 58 metals is assessed and finally, the environmental impact through metal substitutes is evaluated from the perspectives of the GWP and TMR. This analysis could identify some of the aspects overlooked in the previous environmental criteria that were concentrating on greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. The developed algorithm may be useful in identifying appropriate metal substitutes, considering the environmental impact.

RevDate: 2018-10-13

Rugiu L, Manninen I, Rothäusler E, et al (2018)

Tolerance to climate change of the clonally reproducing endemic Baltic seaweed, Fucus radicans: is phenotypic plasticity enough?.

Journal of phycology [Epub ahead of print].

To predict the effects of climate change, we first need information on both the current tolerance ranges of species and their future adaptive potential. Adaptive responses may originate either in genetic variation or in phenotypic plasticity, but the relative importance of these factors is poorly understood. Here, we tested the tolerance of Fucus radicans to the combination of hyposalinity and warming projected by climate models for 2070-2099. We measured the growth and survival responses of thalli in both current and future conditions, focusing on variations in tolerance among and within different clonal lineages. Survival was 32% lower in future than in current conditions, but the weight and length of the thalli who survived was respectively 267% and 178% higher when exposed to future conditions. The relatively high tolerance to the future conditions suggests that F. radicans is likely to persist in its current distributional range, which is limited to the Gulf of Bothia and Estonian coast in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, this species may be able to expand its distribution southwards and replace its congener F. vesiculosus, which, in previous studies, has not tolerated the future conditions as well. In addition, we discovered variation in tolerance to future conditions within one of the clonal lineages, which have been hitherto presumed to lack adaptive variation. The discovery of intra-clonal phenotypic plasticity means that this alga has the potential for adaptive responses to climate change, which may be the key to the future persistence of F. radicans in the Baltic Sea. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-10-12

Skelsey P, Humphris SN, Campbell EJ, et al (2018)

Threat of establishment of non-indigenous potato blackleg and tuber soft rot pathogens in Great Britain under climate change.

PloS one, 13(10):e0205711 pii:PONE-D-18-12942.

Potato blackleg and soft rot caused by Pectobacterium and Dickeya species are among the most significant bacterial diseases affecting potato production globally. In this study we estimate the impact of future temperatures on establishment of non-indigenous but confirmed Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Great Britain (GB). The calculations are based on probabilistic climate change data and a model fitted to disease severity data from a controlled environment tuber assay with the dominant potato blackleg and soft rot-causing species in GB (P. atrosepticum), and three of the main causative agents in Europe (P. carotovorum subsp. brasiliense, P. parmentieri, Dickeya solani). Our aim was to investigate if the European strains could become stronger competitors in the GB potato ecosystem as the climate warms, on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers at different temperatures. Principally, we found that the tissue macerating capacity of all four pathogens will increase in GB under all emissions scenarios. The predominant Pectobacterium and Dickeya species in Europe are able to cause disease in tubers under field conditions currently seen in GB but are not expected to become widely established in the future, at least on the basis of their aggressiveness in tubers relative to P. atrosepticum under GB conditions. Our key take-home messages are that the GB potato industry is well positioned to continue to thrive via current best management practices and continued reinforcement of existing legislation.

RevDate: 2018-10-12

Vrzel J, Ludwig R, Gampe D, et al (2019)

Hydrological system behaviour of an alluvial aquifer under climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 649:1179-1188.

In this paper, we present an assessment of the sensitivity of groundwater-surface water interactions to climate change in an alluvial aquifer, located in the Ljubljansko polje, Slovenia. The investigation is motivated by a recent assessment of climate change pressures on the water balance in the Sava River Basin (Gampe et al., 2016). The assessment was performed using a comprehensive hydrological modelling approach, which is based on the direct/indirect communication between FEFLOW and WaSiM/MIKE 11. This modelling framework provides a precise simulation of the critical processes in the study domain, which are the main drivers influencing the interactions between precipitation, river water and groundwater under different future climate scenarios. Climate projections were based on the results of the three regional climate models SMHI-RCA4, KNMI-RACMO22E and CLMcom-CCLM4. The results show that there will be higher levels of local precipitation during 2036-2065, the projected river discharge will be larger in the future compared to 2000-2014, and it is unlikely that the Ljubljansko polje will suffer from water scarcity. In addition, amongst the various sections of the Sava River the section between Črnuče and Šentjakob is the one most sensitive to climate change. By running the models under different climate scenarios a deeper insight into aquifer system functioning was obtained. Investigating impacts of climate change on groundwater and interactions between surface water and groundwater on the local scale is a basis for applying such a study on the global scale, which was still not very well investigated.

RevDate: 2018-10-12

Dong Z, Driscoll CT, Campbell JL, et al (2019)

Projections of water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under future climate change in an alpine tundra ecosystem in the southern Rocky Mountains using a biogeochemical model.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 1):1451-1464.

Using statistically downscaled future climate scenarios and a version of the biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC) that was modified for use in the alpine tundra, we investigated changes in water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under the Representative Concentration Pathways at Niwot Ridge in Colorado, USA. Our simulations indicate that future hydrology will become more water-limited over the short-term due to the temperature-induced increases in leaf conductance, but remains energy-limited over the longer term because of anticipated future decreases in leaf area and increases in annual precipitation. The seasonal distribution of the water supply will become decoupled from energy inputs due to advanced snowmelt, causing soil moisture stress to plants during the growing season. Decreases in summer soil moisture are projected to not only affect leaf production, but also reduce decomposition of soil organic matter in summer despite increasing temperature. Advanced future snowmelt in spring and increasing rain to snow ratio in fall are projected to increase soil moisture and decomposition of soil organic matter. The extended growing season is projected to increase carbon sequestration by 2% under the high radiative forcing scenario, despite a 31% reduction in leaf display due to the soil moisture stress. Our analyses demonstrate that future nitrogen uptake by alpine plants is regulated by nitrogen supply from mineralization, but plant nitrogen demand may also affect plant uptake under the warmer scenario. PnET-BGC simulations also suggest that potential CO2 effects on alpine plants are projected to cause larger increases in plant carbon storage than leaf and root production.

RevDate: 2018-10-12

Byun K, Chiu CM, AF Hamlet (2019)

Effects of 21st century climate change on seasonal flow regimes and hydrologic extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the US.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 1):1261-1277.

Analyzing future changes in hydrologic extremes such as floods, low flows, and soil moisture extremes is important because many impacts on ecosystems and human systems occur during extreme events. To quantify changes in hydrologic extremes, this study conducts hydrologic modeling experiments over 20 Midwestern watersheds using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced by historical observed datasets and future projections from statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) simulations. Our results show that peak daily streamflow at the 100-yr reoccurrence interval will increase (+10-30%) in most watersheds by 2080s due to significant increases in precipitation (P) and increasing P as rainfall during winter and spring seasons. The simulations also show strong shifts towards earlier peak flow timing (up to a month), especially in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds. These effects are linked to strong decreasing trends in maximum Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) with warming, which are simulated over essentially the entire domain. Projected changes in 7-day extreme low flows are smaller in magnitude (-10-+10%) with somewhat larger decreases simulated at the end of century; however, the timing of extreme low flows is projected to shift from winter/spring to summer and fall in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the northernmost parts of the domain. Extreme low soil moisture increases over most of the domain in the future projections up to the 2050s, but by the 2080s there are more widespread decreases in extreme low soil moisture, especially in the northernmost parts of the domain.

RevDate: 2018-10-11

Anonymous (2018)

Economics Nobel for climate change, Hubble trouble and open-access ups and downs.

Nature, 562(7726):168-169.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Tollefson J (2018)

IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action.

Nature, 562(7726):172-173.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Balakrishnan VS (2018)

Global warming: experts demand urgent action to prevent public health crisis.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 363:k4241.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Warwick RM, Tweedley JR, IC Potter (2018)

Microtidal estuaries warrant special management measures that recognise their critical vulnerability to pollution and climate change.

Marine pollution bulletin, 135:41-46.

Not all estuaries are equally susceptible to anthropogenic perturbation. Microtidal estuaries with long residence times are intrinsically less robust than well-flushed macrotidal estuaries, facilitating the accumulation of contaminants. This promotes development of blooms of non-toxic and toxic phytoplankton, and hypoxia and anoxia may occur in deeper sections of the typically stratified water column. In Mediterranean and arid climates, high temperatures and low and/or seasonal rainfall can result in marked hypersalinity. Thus, any increase in anthropogenic perturbation will further decrease the health of a system in which the biota already experiences natural stress. Microtidal estuaries are also more susceptible to climate change, the detrimental longer-term effects of which are becoming manifestly obvious. Numerous attempts have been made to develop novel solutions to problems caused by eutrophication, phytoplankton blooms, hypoxia and hypersalinity, which have met with various levels of success, but the need for such measures and effective legislation is increasingly critical.

RevDate: 2018-10-09

Gross L (2018)

Confronting climate change in the age of denial.

PLoS biology, 16(10):e3000033 pii:PBIOLOGY-D-18-00512.

This Editorial introduces a Collection of articles in which the authors explore the challenges and pitfalls of communicating the science of climate change in an atmosphere where evidence doesn't matter.

RevDate: 2018-10-11

Malacarne G, Pilati S, Valentini S, et al (2018)

Discovering Causal Relationships in Grapevine Expression Data to Expand Gene Networks. A Case Study: Four Networks Related to Climate Change.

Frontiers in plant science, 9:1385.

In recent years the scientific community has been heavily engaged in studying the grapevine response to climate change. Final goal is the identification of key genetic traits to be used in grapevine breeding and the setting of agronomic practices to improve climatic resilience. The increasing availability of transcriptomic studies, describing gene expression in many tissues and developmental, or treatment conditions, have allowed the implementation of gene expression compendia, which enclose a huge amount of information. The mining of transcriptomic data represents an effective approach to expand a known local gene network (LGN) by finding new related genes. We recently published a pipeline based on the iterative application of the PC-algorithm, named NES2RA, to expand gene networks in Escherichia coli and Arabidopsis thaliana. Here, we propose the application of this method to the grapevine transcriptomic compendium Vespucci, in order to expand four LGNs related to the grapevine response to climate change. Two networks are related to the secondary metabolic pathways for anthocyanin and stilbenoid synthesis, involved in the response to solar radiation, whereas the other two are signaling networks, related to the hormones abscisic acid and ethylene, possibly involved in the regulation of cell water balance and cuticle transpiration. The expansion networks produced by NES2RA algorithm have been evaluated by comparison with experimental data and biological knowledge on the identified genes showing fairly good consistency of the results. In addition, the algorithm was effective in retaining only the most significant interactions among the genes providing a useful framework for experimental validation. The application of the NES2RA to Vitis vinifera expression data by means of the BOINC-based implementation is available upon request (

RevDate: 2018-10-09

Fontes CG, Dawson TE, Jardine K, et al (2018)

Dry and hot: the hydraulic consequences of a climate change-type drought for Amazonian trees.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 373(1760): pii:rstb.2018.0209.

How plants respond physiologically to leaf warming and low water availability may determine how they will perform under future climate change. In 2015-2016, an unprecedented drought occurred across Amazonia with record-breaking high temperatures and low soil moisture, offering a unique opportunity to evaluate the performances of Amazonian trees to a severe climatic event. We quantified the responses of leaf water potential, sap velocity, whole-tree hydraulic conductance (Kwt), turgor loss and xylem embolism, during and after the 2015-2016 El Niño for five canopy-tree species. Leaf/xylem safety margins (SMs), sap velocity and Kwt showed a sharp drop during warm periods. SMs were negatively correlated with vapour pressure deficit, but had no significant relationship with soil water storage. Based on our calculations of canopy stomatal and xylem resistances, the decrease in sap velocity and Kwt was due to a combination of xylem cavitation and stomatal closure. Our results suggest that warm droughts greatly amplify the degree of trees' physiological stress and can lead to mortality. Given the extreme nature of the 2015-2016 El Niño and that temperatures are predicted to increase, this work can serve as a case study of the possible impact climate warming can have on tropical trees.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

RevDate: 2018-10-09

Obradovich N, Migliorini R, Paulus MP, et al (2018)

Empirical evidence of mental health risks posed by climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1801528115 [Epub ahead of print].

Sound mental health-a critical facet of human wellbeing-has the potential to be undermined by climate change. Few large-scale studies have empirically examined this hypothesis. Here, we show that short-term exposure to more extreme weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each associate with worsened mental health. To do so, we couple meteorological and climatic data with reported mental health difficulties drawn from nearly 2 million randomly sampled US residents between 2002 and 2012. We find that shifting from monthly temperatures between 25 °C and 30 °C to >30 °C increases the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5% points, that 1°C of 5-year warming associates with a 2% point increase in the prevalence of mental health issues, and that exposure to Hurricane Katrina associates with a 4% point increase in this metric. Our analyses provide added quantitative support for the conclusion that environmental stressors produced by climate change pose threats to human mental health.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Augustynczik ALD, Asbeck T, Basile M, et al (2018)

Diversification of forest management regimes secures tree microhabitats and bird abundance under climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 2):2717-2730 pii:S0048-9697(18)33863-4 [Epub ahead of print].

The loss of biodiversity in temperate forests due to combined effect of climate change and forest management poses a major threat to the functioning of these ecosystems in the future. Climate change is expected to modify ecological processes and amplify disturbances, compromising the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change and forest management on the abundance of tree microhabitats and forest birds as biodiversity proxies, using an integrated modelling approach. To perform our analysis, we calibrated tree microhabitat and bird abundance in a forest landscape in Southwestern Germany, and coupled them with a climate sensitive forest growth model. Our results show generally positive impacts of climate warming and higher harvesting intensity on bird abundance, with up to 30% increase. Conversely, climate change and wood removals above 5% of the standing volume led to a loss of tree microhabitats. A diversified set of management regimes with different harvesting intensities applied in a landscape scale was required to balance this trade-off. For example, to maximize the expected bird abundance (up to 11%) and to avoid tree microhabitat abundance loss of >20% necessitates setting aside 10.2% of the forest area aside and application of harvesting intensities < 10.4% of the standing volume. We conclude that promoting forest structural complexity by diversifying management regimes across the landscape will be key to maintain forest biodiversity in temperate forests under climate change.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Nilawar AP, ML Waikar (2018)

Impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5 and 8.5: A case study in Purna river basin, India.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 2):2685-2696 pii:S0048-9697(18)33803-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has a significant effect on various hydrological processes in a large river basin. The assessment of these processes is also useful for water resource management and long-term sustainability of any hydrological project. In this study, an attempt is made to quantify the effects of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration in the Purna river basin, India. Three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 for the four future periods of P1 (2009-2031), P2 (2032-2053), P3 (2054-2075) and P4 (2076-2099) are considered. Differences in scenarios are compared with the base period 1980-2005. The SWAT is used on monthly basis for the period 1980 to 2005 with calibration period 1980 to 1994 and validation period 1995 to 2005. The projected precipitation and temperature show a significant increasing trend compared to the baseline condition for both RCPs. Similarly, the average monthly streamflow is projected to increase by 24.47 to 115.94 m3/s whereas average monthly sediment concentration by 32.58 to 162.96 mg/l under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In particular, streamflow and sediment are expected to increase significantly from June to September at the outlet of the basin. The study results give insight into future hydrological scenarios which will be useful for policy makers to implement effective water resource strategies.

RevDate: 2018-10-17

Shen R, Ye ZC, Gao J, et al (2018)

Climate change risk perception in global: Correlation with petroleum and liver disease: A meta-analysis.

Ecotoxicology and environmental safety, 166:453-461.

BACKGROUND: Liver diseases have been bound to environmental factors, inclusive of air pollution. The exposure of workers to petrochemicals counts as a possible cause of Liver diseases, whereas results are inconsistent with the previous studies. In this study, a meta-analysis is conducted to assess the pooled risk.

METHODS AND FINDING: A systematic search was performed by related researchers. Correlations are analyzed among petroleum and liver cirrhosis mortality, fatty liver, alanine amino transferase (abbreviated as ALT), aspartate amino transferase (abbreviated as AST). Pooled risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and effect size(ES) with 95% confidence interval are calculated. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias are also tested. Data are analyzed from 5 studies involving 296 participants. Results are incorporated through adopting a random effects meta-analysis. Working in a petrochemical plant shall not increase the death risk posed by cirrhosis (RR = 0.44, 95% CI [0.36; 0.54]). Yet the incidence of fatty liver increases (RR = 1.22, 95% CI [1.21; 1.23]). Abnormal incidence of ALT and AST also increases.

CONCLUSIONS: Occupational exposure plays an important role in causing ALT abnormalities and fatty liver among oil workers, but not a risk factor of cirrhosis, AST abnormalities and liver cancer.

RevDate: 2018-10-08

Kwiatkowski L, Aumont O, L Bopp (2018)

Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1 ± 2.5% over the twenty-first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6 ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid-to-high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-10-08

Chan FT, Stanislawczyk K, Sneekes AC, et al (2018)

Climate change opens new frontiers for marine species in the Arctic: current trends and future invasion risks.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and increased anthropogenic activities are expected to elevate the potential of introducing non-indigenous species (NIS) into the Arctic. Yet, the knowledge base needed to identify gaps and priorities for NIS research and management is limited. Here, we reviewed primary introduction events to each ecoregion of the marine Arctic realm to identify temporal and spatial patterns, likely source regions of NIS, and the putative introduction pathways. We included 54 introduction events representing 34 unique NIS. The rate of NIS discovery ranged from zero to four species per year between 1960 and 2015. The Iceland Shelf had the greatest number of introduction events (n = 14), followed by the Barents Sea (n = 11), and the Norwegian Sea (n = 11). Twenty of the 54 introduction records had no known origins. The majority of those with known source regions were attributed to the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, each with 14 records. Some introduction events were attributed to multiple possible pathways. For these introductions, vessels transferred the greatest number of aquatic NIS (39%) to the Arctic, followed by natural spread (30%) and aquaculture activities (25%). Similar trends were found for introductions attributed to a single pathway. The phyla Arthropoda and Ochrophyta had the highest number of recorded introduction events, with 19 and 12 records, respectively. Recommendations including vector management, horizon scanning, early detection, rapid response, and a pan-Arctic biodiversity inventory are considered in this paper. Our study provides a comprehensive record of primary introductions of NIS for marine environments in the circumpolar Arctic and identifies knowledge gaps and opportunities for NIS research and management. Ecosystems worldwide will face dramatic changes in the coming decades due to climate change. Our findings contribute to the knowledge base needed to address two aspects of global change-invasive species and climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-10-08

Rich WA, Schubert N, Schläpfer N, et al (2018)

Physiological and biochemical responses of a coralline alga and a sea urchin to climate change: Implications for herbivory.

Marine environmental research pii:S0141-1136(18)30320-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Direct responses to rising temperatures and ocean acidification are increasingly well known for many single species, yet recent reviews have highlighted the need for climate change research to consider a broader range of species, how stressors may interact, and how stressors may affect species interactions. The latter point is important in the context of plant-herbivore interactions, as increasing evidence shows that increasing seawater temperature and/or acidification can alter algal traits that dictate their susceptibility to herbivores, and subsequently, community and ecosystem properties. To better understand how marine rocky shore environments will be affected by a changing ocean, in the present study we investigated the direct effects of short-term, co-occurring increased temperature and ocean acidification on a coralline alga (Jania rubens) and a sea urchin herbivore (Echinometra lucunter) and assessed the indirect effects of these factors on the algal-herbivore interaction. A 21-day mesocosm experiment was conducted with both algae and sea urchins exposed to ambient (24 °C, Low CO2), high-temperature (28 °C, Low CO2), acidified (24 °C, High CO2), or high-temperature plus acidified (28 °C, High CO2) conditions. Algal photosynthesis, respiration, and phenolic content were unaffected by increased temperature and CO2, but calcium carbonate content was reduced under high CO2 treatments in both temperatures, while total sugar content of the algae was reduced under acidified, lower temperature conditions. Metabolic rates of the sea urchin were elevated in the lower temperature, high CO2 treatment, and feeding assays showed that consumption rates also increased in this treatment. Despite some changes to algal chemical composition, it appears that at least under short-term exposure to climate change conditions, direct effects on herbivore metabolism dictated herbivory rates, while indirect effects caused by changes in algal palatability seemed to be of minor importance.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

González-Zeas D, Erazo B, Lloret P, et al (2018)

Linking global climate change to local water availability: Limitations and prospects for a tropical mountain watershed.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 2):2577-2586 pii:S0048-9697(18)33760-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Bridging the gap between the predictions of coarse-scale climate models and the fine-scale climatic reality is a key issue of hydrological research and water management. While many advances have been realized in developed countries, the situation is contrastingly different in most tropical regions where we still lack information on potential discrepancies between measured and modeled climatic conditions. Consequently, water managers in these regions often rely on non-academic expertise to help them plan their future strategies. This issue is particularly alarming in tropical mountainous areas where water demand is increasing rapidly and climate change is expected to have severe impacts. In this article, we addressed this issue by evaluating the limitations and prospects in using regional climate models for evaluating the impact of climate change on water availability in a watershed that provides Quito, the capital of Ecuador, with about 30% of its current water needs. In particular, we quantified the temporal and spatial discrepancies between predicted and observed precipitation and temperature, and explored underlying mechanisms at play. Our results provide a strong critique of the inappropriate use of regional models to inform water planning with regard to adaptation strategies to face climate change. As a multidisciplinary group composed of hydrologists, ecologists and water managers, we then propose a framework to guide future climate change impact studies in tropical mountain watersheds where hydro-climatological data are scarce.

RevDate: 2018-10-08

Odey EA, Abo BO, Li Z, et al (2018)

Influence of climate and environmental change in Nigeria: a review on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.

Reviews on environmental health pii:/j/reveh.ahead-of-print/reveh-2018-0043/reveh-2018-0043.xml [Epub ahead of print].

This paper reviews the current issues that involve environmental changes in Nigeria and environmental threats within the country. The fundamental aim of scientific knowledge in environmental studies is to reconcile climate change and environmental sustainability with developmental goals. Therefore, information on impact adaptation to climate change and vulnerability research is required to develop specific, action-oriented, interdisciplinary, successful, sociopolitical and democratic reform for the entire population of a country. This condition requires large inclusion of environmental researchers, institutions, re-inventing of research structures and ideas to dominate the global environmental change research and the critical analysis of present decision making, power, structure and related information structures. This review presents the effect of climate change in Nigeria and encourages adaptation research with challenging innovation, such as the use of energy-efficient renewable energy sources to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper also highlighted the need for researchers to become detailed, action oriented and multiscalar and to attend communications structure problems in enhancing the environmental activity.

RevDate: 2018-10-16

Rinne PLH, Paul LK, C van der Schoot (2018)

Decoupling photo- and thermoperiod by projected climate change perturbs bud development, dormancy establishment and vernalization in the model tree Populus.

BMC plant biology, 18(1):220 pii:10.1186/s12870-018-1432-0.

BACKGROUND: The performance and survival of deciduous trees depends on their innate ability to anticipate seasonal change. A key event is the timely production of short photoperiod-induced terminal and axillary buds that are dormant and freezing-tolerant. Some observations suggest that low temperature contributes to terminal bud initiation and dormancy. This is puzzling because low temperatures in the chilling range universally release dormancy. It also raises the broader question if the projected climate instabilities, as well as the northward migration of trees, will affect winter preparations and survival of trees.

RESULTS: To gauge the response capacity of trees, we exposed juvenile hybrid aspens to a 10-h short photoperiod in combination with different day/night temperature regimes: high (24/24 °C), moderate (18/18 °C), moderate-low (18/12 °C) and low (12/12 °C), and analysed bud development, dormancy establishment, and marker gene expression. We found that low temperature during the bud formation period (pre-dormancy) upregulated dormancy-release genes of the gibberellin (GA) pathway, including the key GA biosynthesis genes GA20oxidase and GA3oxidase, the GA-receptor gene GID1, as well as GA-inducible enzymes of the 1,3-β-glucanase family that degrade callose at plasmodesmal Dormancy Sphincter Complexes. Simultaneously, this pre-dormancy low temperature perturbed the expression of flowering pathway genes, including CO, FT, CENL1, AGL14, LFY and AP1. In brief, pre-dormancy low temperature compromised bud development, dormancy establishment, and potentially vernalization. On the other hand, a high pre-dormancy temperature prevented dormancy establishment and resulted in flushing.

CONCLUSIONS: The results show that pre-dormancy low temperature represents a form of chilling that antagonizes dormancy establishment. Combined with available field data, this indicates that natural Populus ecotypes have evolved to avoid the adverse effects of high and low temperatures by initiating and completing dormant buds within an approximate temperature-window of 24-12 °C. Global warming and erratic temperature patterns outside this range can therefore endanger the successful propagation of deciduous perennials.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Tang KHD (2018)

Climate change in Malaysia: Trends, contributors, impacts, mitigation and adaptations.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 2):1858-1871 pii:S0048-9697(18)33773-2 [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE: This paper reviews the past and future trends of climate change in Malaysia, the major contributors of greenhouse gases and the impacts of climate change to Malaysia. It also reviews the mitigation and adaptations undertaken, and future strategies to manage the impacts of regional climate change.

METHODOLOGY: The review encompasses historical climate data comprising mean daily temperature, precipitation, mean sea level and occurrences of extreme weather events. Future climate projections have also been reviewed in addition to scholarly papers and news articles related to impacts, contributors, mitigation and adaptations in relation to climate change.

FINDINGS: The review shows that annual mean temperature, occurrences of extreme weather events and mean sea level are rising while rainfall shows variability. Future projections point to continuous rise of temperature and mean sea level till the end of the 21st century, highly variable rainfall and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Climate change impacts particularly on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, coastal and marine resources, public health and energy. The energy and waste management sectors are the major contributors to climate change. Mitigation of and adaptations to climate change in Malaysia revolve around policy setting, enactment of laws, formulation and implementation of plans and programmes, as well as global and regional collaborations, particularly for energy, water resources, agriculture and biodiversity. There are apparent shortcomings in continuous improvement and monitoring of the programmes as well as enforcement of the relevant laws.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This paper presents a comprehensive review of the major themes of climate change in Malaysia and recommends pertinent ways forward to fill the gaps of mitigation and adaptations already implemented.

RevDate: 2018-10-08

Lafuente A, Berdugo M, de Guevara ML, et al (2018)

Simulated climate change affects how biocrusts modulate water gains and desiccation dynamics after rainfall events.

Ecohydrology : ecosystems, land and water process interactions, ecohydrogeomorphology, 11(6):.

Soil surface communities dominated by mosses, lichens and cyanobacteria (biocrusts) are common between vegetation patches in drylands worldwide, and are known to affect soil wetting and drying after rainfall events. While ongoing climate change is already warming and changing rainfall patterns of drylands in many regions, little is known on how these changes may affect the hydrological behaviour of biocrust-covered soils. We used eight years of continuous soil moisture and rainfall data from a climate change experiment in central Spain to explore how biocrusts modify soil water gains and losses after rainfall events under simulated changes in temperature (2.5°C warming) and rainfall (33% reduction). Both rainfall amount and biocrust cover increased soil water gains after rainfall events, whereas experimental warming, rainfall intensity and initial soil moisture decreased them. Initial moisture, maximum temperature and biocrust cover, by means of enhancing potential evapotranspiration or by soil darkening, increased the drying rates and enhanced the exponential behaviour of the drying events. Meanwhile, warming reduced their exponential behaviour. The effects of climate change treatments on soil water gains and losses changed through time, with important differences between the first two years of the experiment and five years after its setup. These effects were mainly driven by the important reductions in biocrust cover and diversity observed under warming. Our results highlight the importance of long-term studies to understand soil moisture responses to ongoing climate change in drylands.

RevDate: 2018-10-07

Di Cecco GJ, TC Gouhier (2018)

Increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature under climate change.

Scientific reports, 8(1):14850 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-33217-0.

Understanding spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions is important to determine how climate change will impact ecological communities. The spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature can have strong impacts on community structure and persistence by increasing the duration and the magnitude of unfavorable conditions in sink populations and disrupting spatial rescue effects by synchronizing spatially segregated populations. Although increases in spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature have been documented in historical data, little is known about how climate change will impact these trends. We examined daily air temperature data from 21 General Circulation Models under the business-as-usual carbon emission scenario to quantify patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation between 1871 and 2099. Although both spatial and temporal autocorrelation increased over time, there was significant regional variation in the temporal autocorrelation trends. Additionally, we found a consistent breakpoint in the relationship between spatial autocorrelation and time around the year 2030, indicating an acceleration in the rate of increase of the spatial autocorrelation over the second half of the 21st century. Overall, our results suggest that ecological populations might experience elevated extinction risk under climate change because increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature is expected to erode both spatial and temporal refugia.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Iqbal MS, Islam MMM, N Hofstra (2018)

The impact of socio-economic development and climate change on E. coli loads and concentrations in Kabul River, Pakistan.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 2):1935-1943 pii:S0048-9697(18)33816-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Microbial pollution is a major problem worldwide. High concentrations of Escherichia coli have been found in Kabul River in Pakistan. E. coli concentrations vary under different socio-economic conditions, such as population and livestock densities, urbanisation, sanitation and treatment of wastewater and manure, and climate-change aspects, such as floods and droughts. In this paper, we assess potential future E. coli loads and concentrations in the Kabul River using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool with scenarios that are based on the most recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs and RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Scenario_1 considers moderate population and livestock density growth, planned urbanisation and strongly improved wastewater and manure treatment (based on SSP1, "Sustainability"), and moderate climate change (RCP4.5, moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions). Scenario_2 considers strong population and livestock density growth, moderate urbanisation, slightly improved wastewater treatment, no manure treatment (based on SSP3, "Regional rivalry") and strong climate change (RCP8.5, high GHG emissions). Simulated E. coli responses to Scenario_2 suggest a mid-century increase in loads by 111% and a late century increase of 201% compared to baseline loads. Similarly, simulated E. coli loads are reduced by 60% for the mid-century and 78% for the late century compared to the baseline loads. When additional treatment is simulated in Scenario_1, the loads are reduced even further by 94%, 92% and 99.3% compared to the baseline concentrations when additional tertiary treatment, manure treatment or both have been applied respectively. This study is one of the first to apply combined socio-economic development and climate change scenario analysis with an E. coli concentration model to better understand how these concentrations may change in the future. The scenario analysis shows that reducing E. coli concentrations in Pakistan's rivers is possible, but requires strongly improved waste water treatment and manure management measures.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Du X, Shrestha NK, J Wang (2018)

Assessing climate change impacts on stream temperature in the Athabasca River Basin using SWAT equilibrium temperature model and its potential impacts on stream ecosystem.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 2):1872-1881 pii:S0048-9697(18)33813-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Stream temperatures, which influence dynamics and distributions of the aquatic species and kinetics of biochemical reactions, are expected to be altered by the climate change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change on stream temperature is helpful for integrated water resources management. In this study, our previously developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) equilibrium temperature model, which considers both the impacts of meteorological condition and hydrological processes, was used to assess the climate change impact on the stream temperature regimes in the Athabasca River Basin (ARB), a cold climate region watershed of western Canada. The streamflow and stream temperatures were calibrated and validated first in the baseline period, using multi-site observed data in the ARB. Then, climate change impact assessments were conducted based on three climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Results showed that warmer and wetter future condition would prevail in the ARB. As a result, streamflow in the basin would increase despite the projected increases in evapotranspiration due to warmer condition. On the basin scale, annual stream temperatures are expected to increase by 0.8 to 1.1 °C in mid-century and by 1.6 to 3.1 °C in late century. Moreover, the stream temperature changes showed a marked temporal pattern with the highest increases (2.0 to 7.4 °C) in summer. The increasing stream temperatures would affect water quality dynamics in the ARB by decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations and increasing biochemical reaction rates in the streams. Such spatial-temporal changes in stream temperature regimes in future period would also affect aquatic species, thus require appropriate management measures to attenuate the impacts.

RevDate: 2018-10-07

Bajay SK, Cruz MV, da Silva CC, et al (2018)

Extremophiles as a Model of a Natural Ecosystem: Transcriptional Coordination of Genes Reveals Distinct Selective Responses of Plants Under Climate Change Scenarios.

Frontiers in plant science, 9:1376.

The goal of this research was to generate networks of co-expressed genes to explore the genomic responses of Rhizophora mangle L. populations to contrasting environments and to use gene network analysis to investigate their capacity for adaptation in the face of historical and future perturbations and climatic changes. RNA sequencing data were generated for R. mangle samples collected under field conditions from contrasting climate zones in the equatorial and subtropical regions of Brazil. A gene co-expression network was constructed using Pearson's correlation coefficient, showing correlations among 78,364 transcriptionally coordinated genes. Each region exhibited two distinct network profiles; genes correlated with the oxidative stress response showed higher relative expression levels in subtropical samples than in equatorial samples, whereas genes correlated with the hyperosmotic salinity response, heat response and UV response had higher expression levels in the equatorial samples than in the subtropical samples. In total, 992 clusters had enriched ontology terms, which suggests that R. mangle is under higher stress in the equatorial region than in the subtropical region. Increased heat may thus pose a substantial risk to species diversity at the center of its distribution range in the Americas. This study, which was performed using trees in natural field conditions, allowed us to associate the specific responses of genes previously described in controlled environments with their responses to the local habitat where the species occurs. The study reveals the effects of contrasting environments on gene expression in R. mangle, shedding light on the different abiotic variables that may contribute to the genetic divergence previously described for the species through the use of simple sequence repeats (SSRs). These effects may result from two fundamental processes in evolution, namely, phenotypic plasticity and natural selection.

RevDate: 2018-10-07

Hundessa S, Williams G, Li S, et al (2018)

Projecting potential spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China with climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 627:1285-1293.

Background: Global climate change is likely to increase the geographic range and seasonality of malaria transmission. Areas suitable for distribution of malaria vectors are predicted to increase with climate change but evidence is limited on future distribution of malaria with climate in China.

Objective: Our aim was to assess a potential effect of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) and Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) malaria under climate change scenarios.

Methods: National malaria surveillance data during 2005-2014 were integrated with corresponding climate data to model current weather-malaria relationship. We used the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with a spatial component, assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution and including an offset for the population while accounting for potential non-linearity and long-term trend. The association was applied to future climate to project county-level malaria distribution using ensembles of Global Climate Models under two climate scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).

Results: Climate change could substantially increase P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria, under both climate scenarios, but by larger amount under RCP8.5, compared to the baseline. P. falciparum is projected to increase more than P.vivax. The distributions of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria are expected to increase in most regions regardless of the climate scenarios. A high percentage (>50%) increases are projected in some counties of the northwest, north, northeast, including northern tip of the northeast China, with a clearer spatial change for P. vivax than P. falciparum under both scenarios, highlighting potential changes in the latitudinal extent of the malaria.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that spatial and temporal distribution of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China will change due to future climate change, if there is no policy to mitigate it. These findings are important to guide the malaria elimination goal for China.

RevDate: 2018-10-04

Kiser B (2018)

An ode to female space trainees, the creeping cost of climate change, and the fabric of history: Books in brief.

Nature, 562(7725):35.

RevDate: 2018-10-17

Parent B, Leclere M, Lacube S, et al (2018)

Maize yields over Europe may increase in spite of climate change, with an appropriate use of the genetic variability of flowering time.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(42):10642-10647.

Projections based on invariant genotypes and agronomic practices indicate that climate change will largely decrease crop yields. The comparatively few studies considering farmers' adaptation result in a diversity of impacts depending on their assumptions. We combined experiments and process-based modeling for analyzing the consequences of climate change on European maize yields if farmers made the best use of the current genetic variability of cycle duration, based on practices they currently use. We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient for identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield in a range of European climatic conditions. This was observed in six field experiments with a panel of 121 accessions and extended to 59 European sites over 36 years with a crop model. The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date was supported by comparison with historical data. Simulations were then carried out for 2050 with 3 million combinations of crop cycle durations, climate scenarios, management practices, and modeling hypotheses. Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050 was stable (-1 to +1%) compared with the 1975-2010 baseline period under the hypotheses of unchanged cycle duration, whereas it was increased (+4-7%) when crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimized in each local environment. The combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptation reduced the yield gradient between south and north of Europe and increased European maize production if farmers continued to make the best use of the genetic variability of crop cycle duration.

RevDate: 2018-10-02

Moore JS, Chapman JM, Mazerolle MJ, et al (2018)

Premature alarm on the impacts of climate change on Arctic Char in Lake Hazen.

Nature communications, 9(1):3985 pii:10.1038/s41467-018-06479-5.

RevDate: 2018-09-28

Saraiva ACF, Mesquita A, de Oliveira TF, et al (2018)

High CO2 effects on growth and biometal contents in the pioneer species Senna reticulata: climate change predictions.

Journal of trace elements in medicine and biology : organ of the Society for Minerals and Trace Elements (GMS), 50:130-138.

The aim of the present study consisted in evaluating the effects of CO2 enrichment on the growth and biometal/nutrient content and accumulation in Senna reticulata germinated under two different carbon dioxide concentrations: atmospheric (360 mg L-1) and elevated (720 mg L-1). Biometal/nutrient determinations were performed on three different plant portions (leaflets, stem and root) using flame atomic absorption spectrometry. In general, the biometal and nutrient stoichiometries in roots were increased, probably due to reduced transpiration, and consequent biometal accumulation. An Artifical Neural Network analysis suggests that Mg, Na and Fe display the most different behavior when comparing plants germinated at atmospheric and elevated CO2 conditions. Biomass and growth increases and certain elemental levels indicate that S. reticulata benefits from increased CO2 levels, however some results indicate the contrary, making further studies in this context necessary, as these changes may lead to direct effects on food safety, crop yields, and phytoremediation efficiency.

RevDate: 2018-09-27

Stensgaard AS, Vounatsou P, Sengupta ME, et al (2018)

Schistosomes, snails and climate change: Current trends and future expectations.

Acta tropica pii:S0001-706X(18)30864-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The exact impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, a blood-fluke affecting more than 250 million people mainly in tropical and subtropical countries, is currently unknown, but likely to vary with the snail-parasite species' specific ecologies and the spatio-temporal scale of investigation. Here, by means of a systematic review to identify studies reporting on impacts of climate change on the agents of schistosomiasis, we provide an updated synthesis of the current knowledge about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation. We found that, despite a recent increase in scientific studies that discuss the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, only a handful of reports have applied modelling and predictive forecasting that provide a quantitative estimate of potential outcomes. The volume and type of evidence associated with climate change responses were found to be variable across geographical regions and snail-parasite taxonomic groups. Indeed, the strongest evidence stems from the People's Republic of China pertaining to Schistosoma japonicum. Some evidence is also available from eastern Africa, mainly for Schistosoma mansoni. While studies focused on the northern and southern range margins for schistosomiasis indicate an increase in transmission range as the most likely outcome, there was less agreement about the direction of outcomes from the central and eastern parts of Africa. The current lack of consensus suggests that climate change is more likely to shift than to expand the geographic ranges of schistosomiasis. A comparison between the current geographical distributions and the thermo-physiological limitations of the two main African schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni) offered additional insights, and showed that both species already exist near their thermo-physiological niche boundaries. The African species both stand to move considerably out of their "thermal comfort zone" in a future, warmer Africa, but S. haematobium in particular is likely to experience less favourable climatic temperatures. The consequences for schistosomiasis transmission will to a large extent depend on the parasites and snails ability to adapt or move. Based on the identified geographical trends and knowledge gaps about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation, we propose to align efforts to close the current knowledge gaps and focus on areas considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change.

RevDate: 2018-09-27

Zhao J, Zhan X, Jiang Y, et al (2018)

Variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for potato in northern China under climate change.

PloS one, 13(9):e0203538 pii:PONE-D-18-06383.

Investigating the variations in crop climatic suitability and planting regionalization can provide scientific evidence for ensuring food security under climate change. In this study, variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for the potato in northern China were investigated based on daily data from 1965 to 2014 collected at 321 agro-meteorological observation stations located throughout the region. Northern China was divided into three areas, including Northwest China, North China and Northeast China. The agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method were applied. The potato growth seasons were divided into threestages:from sowing to emergence, from emergence to flowering and from flowering to maturity. The comprehensive climatic suitabilityindex (C), which varied from 0 to 1, was established to evaluate the effects of climate change on potato planting. The results showed that, from 1965 to 2014, the C value in the study area increased 0.002 every ten years over the past 50 years with an average of 0.706, benefitting potato growth in the vast area of northern China. Nonetheless, precipitation was found to be the main climatic factor restricting potato growth in northern China. For spatial distribution, the C value showed a gradually declining trend from east to west, decreasing westward and southward over the past 50 years. For the growth season, the C value varied during different potato growth stages over the past 50 years. The C value increased during the sowing-emergence stage and decreased during the emergence-flowering stage and the flowering-maturity stage. The decreased C during the later growth stages would directly affect the quality and yield of the potato, mainly because the flowering-maturity stage was associated with potato tuber enlargement and starch accumulation. Variations in potato planting regionalization in northern China over the past 50 years were evident. Climate change was more beneficial to potato cultivation in northeast China where the highly suitable areas had clearly expanded. However, potato cultivation was most negatively affected in northwest China where the middle suitable areas had receded. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

RevDate: 2018-10-02

Sylla MB, Pal JS, Faye A, et al (2018)

Climate change to severely impact West African basin scale irrigation in 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios.

Scientific reports, 8(1):14395 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-32736-0.

West Africa is in general limited to rainfed agriculture. It lacks irrigation opportunities and technologies that are applied in many economically developed nations. A warming climate along with an increasing population and wealth has the potential to further strain the region's potential to meet future food needs. In this study, we investigate West Africa's hydrological potential to increase agricultural productivity through the implementation of large-scale water storage and irrigation. A 23-member ensemble of Regional Climate Models is applied to assess changes in hydrologically relevant variables under 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios according to the UNFCCC 2015 Conference of Parties (COP 21) agreement. Changes in crop water demand, irrigation water need, water availability and the difference between water availability and irrigation water needs, here referred as basin potential, are presented for ten major river basins covering entire West Africa. Under the 2 °C scenario, crop water demand and irrigation water needs are projected to substantially increase with the largest changes in the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea respectively. At the same time, irrigation potential, which is directly controlled by the climate, is projected to decrease even in regions where water availability increases. This indicates that West African river basins will likely face severe freshwater shortages thus limiting sustainable agriculture. We conclude a general decline in the basin-scale irrigation potential in the event of large-scale irrigation development under 2 °C global warming. Reducing the warming to 1.5 °C decreases these impacts by as much as 50%, suggesting that the region of West Africa clearly benefits from efforts of enhanced mitigation.

RevDate: 2018-09-26

Schmidt CW (2018)

More Cases of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: A Consequence of Climate Change?.

Environmental health perspectives, 126(9):94002.

RevDate: 2018-09-26

Lloyd SJ, Bangalore M, Chalabi Z, et al (2018)

A Global-Level Model of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Child Stunting via Income and Food Price in 2030.

Environmental health perspectives, 126(9):97007.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, 23% of children (155 million) aged [Formula: see text] were stunted. Global-level modeling has consistently found climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition.

OBJECTIVES: We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting socioeconomic drivers: incomes of the poorest 20% of populations (due to climate impacts on crop production, health, labor productivity, and disasters) and food prices.

METHODS: We developed a statistical model to project moderate and severe stunting in children aged [Formula: see text] at the national level in 2030 under low and high climate change scenarios combined with poverty and prosperity scenarios in 44 countries.

RESULTS: We estimated that in the absence of climate change, 110 million children aged [Formula: see text] would be stunted in 2030 under the poverty scenario in comparison with 83 million under the prosperity scenario. Estimates of climate change-attributable stunting ranged from 570,000 under the prosperity/low climate change scenario to [Formula: see text] under the poverty/high climate change scenario. The projected impact of climate change on stunting was greater in rural vs. urban areas under both socioeconomic scenarios. In countries with lower incomes and relatively high food prices, we projected that rising prices would tend to increase stunting, whereas in countries with higher incomes and relatively low food prices, rising prices would tend to decrease stunting. These findings suggest that food prices that provide decent incomes to farmers alongside high employment with living wages will reduce undernutrition and vulnerability to climate change.

CONCLUSIONS: Shifting the focus from food production to interactions between incomes and food price provides new insights. Futures that protect health should consider not just availability, accessibility, and quality of food, but also the incomes generated by those producing the food.

RevDate: 2018-09-28

Dworetzky BA (2018)

Global Warming for Psychogenic Nonepileptic Seizures? Report From ILAE Climate Survey.

Epilepsy currents, 18(4):231-232.

RevDate: 2018-09-26

Newman TP, Nisbet EC, MC Nisbet (2018)

Climate change, cultural cognition, and media effects: Worldviews drive news selectivity, biased processing, and polarized attitudes.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

According to cultural cognition theory, individuals hold opinions about politically contested issues like climate change that are consistent with their "cultural way of life," conforming their opinions to how they think society should be organized and to what they perceive are the attitudes of their cultural peers. Yet despite dozens of cultural cognition studies, none have directly examined the role of the news media in facilitating these differential interpretations. To address this gap, drawing on a national survey of US adults administered in 2015, we statistically modeled the cultural cognition process in relation to news choices and media effects on public attitudes about climate change. Individuals possessing strongly held cultural worldviews, our findings show, not only choose news outlets where they expect to find culturally congruent arguments about climate change, but they also selectively process the arguments they encounter. Overall, our study demonstrates the substantial role that cultural cognition in combination with news media choices play in contributing to opinion polarization on climate change and other politicized science topics.

RevDate: 2018-09-25

Al-Delaimy WK, M Krzyzanowski (2018)

A Policy Brief: Climate Change and Epidemiology Type of Manuscript: Commentary.

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2018-09-25

Xing B, Chen H, Chen Q, et al (2018)

Assessing impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Coregonus ussuriensis and other coldwater fishes in northern China.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-018-3236-z [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change seriously affects habitat suitability for coldwater fish. Amur whitefish (Coregonus ussuriensis) is a commercially important coldwater fish species found in northeast China that is particularly sensitive to water temperature. We use water temperature models for Songhua (Harbin to Yilan) and Mayi rivers to predict habitat suitability for Amur whitefish and other coldwater fish species during the months of July and August in 2014 and 2100-2 months during which river temperatures can reach extremes. The predict-results showed that fish habitat was to deteriorate over time, and to be less suitable for survival of coldwater fish species in 2100 than that in 2014. Under scenario RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5), the time period during which habitat for Amur whitefish was unsuitable increased continually; under scenario RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), Amur whitefish might even disappear from the river basin. A significant increase in river water temperature will compromise coldwater fish survival and possibly lead to their disappearance. Practical measures to control greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the impact of global warming on aquatic ecosystems must be taken.

RevDate: 2018-09-28

Manzanedo RD, Ballesteros-Cánovas J, Schenk F, et al (2018)

Increase in CO2 concentration could alter the response of Hedera helix to climate change.

Ecology and evolution, 8(16):8598-8606 pii:ECE34388.

Increasing CO 2 concentration ([CO 2]) is likely to affect future species distributions, in interaction with other climate change drivers. However, current modeling approaches still seldom consider interactions between climatic factors and the importance of these interactions therefore remains mostly unexplored. Here, we combined dendrochronological and modeling approaches to study the interactive effects of increasing [CO 2] and temperature on the distribution of one of the main European liana species, Hedera helix. We combined a classical continent-wide species distribution modeling approach with a case study using H. helix and Quercus cerris tree rings, where we explored the long-term influence of a variety of climate drivers, including increasing [CO 2], and their interactions, on secondary growth. Finally, we explored how our findings could influence the model predictions. Climate-only model predictions showed a small decrease in habitat suitability for H. helix in Europe; however, this was accompanied by a strong shift in the distribution toward the north and east. Our growth ring data suggested that H. helix can benefit from high [CO 2] under warm conditions, more than its tree hosts, which showed a weaker response to [CO 2] coupled with higher cavitation risk under high temperature. Increasing [CO 2] might therefore offset the negative effects of high temperatures on H. helix, and we illustrate how this might translate into maintenance of H. helix in warmer areas. Our results highlight the need to consider carbon fertilization and interactions between climate variables in ecological modeling. Combining dendrochronological analyses with spatial distribution modeling may provide opportunities to refine predictions of how climate change will affect species distributions.

RevDate: 2018-09-28

Marion L, B Bergerot (2018)

Northern range shift may be due to increased competition induced by protection of species rather than to climate change alone.

Ecology and evolution, 8(16):8364-8379 pii:ECE34348.

Few long-term, large-scale studies have been conducted about the factors likely to explain changes in species abundance and distribution in winter. Range shifts are generally attributed to the climate change or land use. This study shows that other factors such as species protection and the ensuing increasing numbers of individuals and competition could be involved. It details the progressive conquest of France, the most important European wintering area for great cormorant, in three decades as its legal protection by the EU Birds Directive. It is based on 13 exhaustive national counts. Cormorants first occupied the farthest areas (Atlantic and Mediterranean lagoons, then larger rivers) from the main-core European breeding area, with only progressive occupancy of the northeastern part later. This strategy mainly resulted from competition for optimal available feeding areas. Suboptimal areas (smaller wetlands harboring smaller night roosts, colder northeastern French areas) and progressive fragmentation of large night roosts into smaller, better located ones minimized flight costs. The coldest areas were occupied last, once other areas were saturated. Their occupancy was favored locally by the global climate change, but it played a minor role in these strategies. Both factors induced only a small NNE shift of the weighted centroid range of the wintering population (2.6 km/year) which mainly resulted from competition (buffer effect). Only the 2009 cold wave decreased the total number of wintering cormorants at the national scale, once the population had probably reached the carrying capacity of the country, while the previous cold waves had a minor effect. Comparatively, there was a greater SSE range shift of the weighted centroid of the breeding population (4.66 km/year). Range shifts of other recently protected species have been attributed to the sole climate change in the literature, but competition due to the saturation of usual wintering or breeding areas should be considered too.

RevDate: 2018-09-28

Chardon NI, Wipf S, Rixen C, et al (2018)

Local trampling disturbance effects on alpine plant populations and communities: Negative implications for climate change vulnerability.

Ecology and evolution, 8(16):7921-7935 pii:ECE34276.

Global change is modifying species communities from local to landscape scales, with alterations in the abiotic and biotic determinants of geographic range limits causing species range shifts along both latitudinal and elevational gradients. An important but often overlooked component of global change is the effect of anthropogenic disturbance, and how it interacts with the effects of climate to affect both species and communities, as well as interspecies interactions, such as facilitation and competition. We examined the effects of frequent human trampling disturbances on alpine plant communities in Switzerland, focusing on the elevational range of the widely distributed cushion plant Silene acaulis and the interactions of this facilitator species with other plants. Examining size distributions and densities, we found that disturbance appears to favor individual Silene growth at middle elevations. However, it has negative effects at the population level, as evidenced by a reduction in population density and reproductive indices. Disturbance synergistically interacts with the effects of elevation to reduce species richness at low and high elevations, an effect not mitigated by Silene. In fact, we find predominantly competitive interactions, both by Silene on its hosted and neighboring species and by neighboring (but not hosted) species on Silene. Our results indicate that disturbance can be beneficial for Silene individual performance, potentially through changes in its neighboring species community. However, possible reduced recruitment in disturbed areas could eventually lead to population declines. While other studies have shown that light to moderate disturbances can maintain high species diversity, our results emphasize that heavier disturbance reduces species richness, diversity, as well as percent cover, and adversely affects cushion plants and that these effects are not substantially reduced by plant-plant interactions. Heavily disturbed alpine systems could therefore be at greater risk for upward encroachment of lower elevation species in a warming world.

RevDate: 2018-09-28

Vasconcelos TS, do Nascimento BTM, VHM Prado (2018)

Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots.

Ecology and evolution, 8(16):7894-7906 pii:ECE34357.

We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.

RevDate: 2018-09-27
CmpDate: 2018-09-27

Ma X, Zhao C, Tao H, et al (2018)

Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China.

The Science of the total environment, 645:1496-1508.

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an essential component of Earth's global energy balance and water cycle. The Paris Agreement aspires to limit global mean surface warming to <2 °C and no >1.5 °C relative to preindustrial levels. However, it is uncertain how this global level will impact the shifts in the extents of sandy areas caused by global desertification. Using Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) datasets and advection-aridity models, we investigated the spatiotemporal features of ETa in sandy areas in northern China under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. The four climate models indicated significant increases in ETa in arid areas across northwestern China. Over time, the ETa value under only the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) emission scenario increased towards a plateau and significantly increased in the other three emission scenarios (P < 0.01) under global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. In terms of the spatial variations, ETa showed an increasing trend in all seasons except winter. The maximum ETa was 84.61 mm, and high values were mainly located in the southeast of the study area. Precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed good correlations with ETa in the sandy areas in northern China. The sandy areas in northern China showed decreasing trends (0.45 km2/a) from 1980 to 2015. Under global warming of 2.0 °C (2040-2059) relative to that of 1.5 °C (2020-2039), the area of sandy land will increase at a rate of 27.04 km2 per decade (P < 0.01); after this period, the sandy land area in northern China may gradually stabilize, with a trend of 0.02 km2/a (2047-2100). Early efforts to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal could therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial global desertification and the related impacts.

RevDate: 2018-09-27
CmpDate: 2018-09-27

Ishida K, Ercan A, Trinh T, et al (2018)

Analysis of future climate change impacts on snow distribution over mountainous watersheds in Northern California by means of a physically-based snow distribution model.

The Science of the total environment, 645:1065-1082.

The impacts of climate change on snow distribution through the 21st century were investigated over three mountainous watersheds in Northern California by means of a physically-based snow distribution model. The future climate conditions during a 90-year future period from water year 2010 to 2100 were obtained from 13 future climate projection realizations from two GCMs (ECHAM5 and CCSM3) based on four SRES scenarios (A1B, A1FI, A2, and B1). The 13 future climate projection realizations were dynamically downscaled at 9 km resolution by a regional climate model. Using the downscaled variables based on the 13 future climate projection realizations, snow distribution over the Feather, Yuba, and American River watersheds (FRW, YRW, and ARW) was projected by means of the physically-based snow model. FRW and YRW watersheds cover the main source areas of the California State Water Project (SWP), and ARW is one of the key watersheds in the California Central Valley Project (CVP). SWP and CVP are of great importance as they provide and regulate much of the California's water for drinking, irrigation, flood control, environmental, and hydro-power generation purposes. Ensemble average snow distribution over the study watersheds was calculated over the 13 realizations and for each scenario, revealing differences among the scenarios. While the snow reduction through the 21st century was similar between A1B and A2, the snow reduction was milder for B1, and more severe for A1FI. A significant downward trend was detected in the snowpack over nearly the entire watershed areas for all the ensemble average results.

RevDate: 2018-09-25

Liang J, Xing W, Zeng G, et al (2018)

Where will threatened migratory birds go under climate change? Implications for China's national nature reserves.

The Science of the total environment, 645:1040-1047.

Climate change, regarded as one of the major threats to biodiversity and ecosystems, can impact on the distribution and survival of migratory birds. To investigate the threats of climate change to threatened migratory bird distributions, we used species distribution model (SDM) and climatic data under current and future climate scenarios to predict future changes in species distributions and how the geographic distribution of these threatened birds may respond to climate change by 2050. Our results show the hotspots for all species may remain in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, while more species may dwell in the coastal regions of the Bohai Gulf and the Yellow Sea in the future. Our findings show that the percentage of all species distributions or hotspots for all threatened species covered by national nature reserves (NNRs) in China remain low by 2050. Thus, we propose that China should increase and expand reserves in eastern China. Significantly, we emphasize the creation of protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites in the world and recommend that China should (1) strengthen the cooperation with neighboring countries to share maximum species occurrence data (especially the threatened species), (2) overlay maps of individual species for each taxon to assess the efficiency of coastal nature reserves and predict the hotspots shift under climate change, (3) trade off urban development and ecosystem stability to create new and dynamic protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites, (4) appeal for long-term protection of ecosystem stability to achieve sustainable development in the world.

RevDate: 2018-09-28

Silva RA, West JJ, Lamarque JF, et al (2017)


Nature climate change, 7(9):647-651.

RevDate: 2018-09-23

Lee SW, Lee K, B Lim (2018)

Effects of climate change-related heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-018-1611-6 [Epub ahead of print].

This study assessed the potential impact of heat stress on labor productivity in South Korea; as such, stress is expected to increase due to climate change. To quantify the future loss of labor productivity, we used the relationship between the wet-bulb globe temperature and work-rest cycles with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 as the climate change scenarios. If only climate factors are considered, then future labor productivity is expected to decline in most regions from the middle of the twenty-first century onwards (2041-2070). From the late twenty-first century onwards, the productivity of heavy outdoor work could decline by 26.1% from current levels under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. Further analysis showed that regional differences in labor characteristics and the working population had noteworthy impacts on future labor productivity losses. The heat stress caused by climate change thus has a potentially substantial negative impact on outdoor labor productivity in South Korea.

RevDate: 2018-10-09

Rheuban JE, Doney SC, Cooley SR, et al (2018)

Projected impacts of future climate change, ocean acidification, and management on the US Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery.

PloS one, 13(9):e0203536 pii:PONE-D-18-07460.

Ocean acidification has the potential to significantly impact both aquaculture and wild-caught mollusk fisheries around the world. In this work, we build upon a previously published integrated assessment model of the US Atlantic Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery to determine the possible future of the fishery under a suite of climate, economic, biological, and management scenarios. We developed a 4x4x4x4 hypercube scenario framework that resulted in 256 possible combinations of future scenarios. The study highlights the potential impacts of ocean acidification and management for a subset of future climate scenarios, with a high CO2 emissions case (RCP8.5) and lower CO2 emissions and climate mitigation case (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 and the highest impact and management scenario, ocean acidification has the potential to reduce sea scallop biomass by approximately 13% by the end of century; however, the lesser impact scenarios cause very little change. Under RCP8.5, sea scallop biomass may decline by more than 50% by the end of century, leading to subsequent declines in industry landings and revenue. Management-set catch limits improve the outcomes of the fishery under both climate scenarios, and the addition of a 10% area closure increases future biomass by more than 25% under the highest ocean acidification impacts. However, increased management still does not stop the projected long-term decline of the fishery under ocean acidification scenarios. Given our incomplete understanding of acidification impacts on P. magellanicus, these declines, along with the high value of the industry, suggest population-level effects of acidification should be a clear research priority. Projections described in this manuscript illustrate both the potential impacts of ocean acidification under a business-as-usual and a moderately strong climate-policy scenario. We also illustrate the importance of fisheries management targets in improving the long-term outcome of the P. magellanicus fishery under potential global change.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Valencia E, Gross N, Quero JL, et al (2018)

Cascading effects from plants to soil microorganisms explain how plant species richness and simulated climate change affect soil multifunctionality.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Despite their importance, how plant communities and soil microorganisms interact to determine the capacity of ecosystems to provide multiple functions simultaneously (multifunctionality) under climate change is poorly known. We conducted a common garden experiment using grassland species to evaluate how plant functional structure and soil microbial (bacteria and protists) diversity and abundance regulate soil multifunctionality responses to joint changes in plant species richness (one, three and six species) and simulated climate change (3°C warming and 35% rainfall reduction). The effects of species richness and climate on soil multifunctionality were indirectly driven via changes in plant functional structure and their relationships with the abundance and diversity of soil bacteria and protists. More specifically, warming selected for the larger and most productive plant species, increasing the average size within communities and leading to reductions in functional plant diversity. These changes increased the total abundance of bacteria that, in turn, increased that of protists, ultimately promoting soil multifunctionality. Our work suggests that cascading effects between plant functional traits and the abundance of multitrophic soil organisms largely regulate the response of soil multifunctionality to simulated climate change, and ultimately provides novel experimental insights into the mechanisms underlying the effects of biodiversity and climate change on ecosystem functioning.

RevDate: 2018-09-24

Barnes CS (2018)

Impact of Climate Change on Pollen and Respiratory Disease.

Current allergy and asthma reports, 18(11):59 pii:10.1007/s11882-018-0813-7.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: A warming world will impact everyone and everything. The practice of allergic and respiratory disease will not be excepted. All the impacts will be impossible to anticipate. This review is intended to discuss significant factors related to individuals with allergic and respiratory disease.

RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings include the increased growth of allergenic plants in response to higher carbon dioxide levels and warmer temperatures. This also contributes to the increased production of pollen as well as the appearance of allergenic species in new climactic areas. Stinging insects will extend their ranges into northern areas where they have not previously been a problem. The shift and extension of pollen seasons with warmer springs and later frosts have already been observed. Recent severe hurricanes and flooding events may be just the harbinger of increasing damp housing exposure related to sea level rise. Evidence is accumulating that indicates the expected higher number of ozone alert days and increased pollution in populated areas is bringing increases in pollen potency. Finally, increased exposure to smoke and particles from wild fires, resulting from heat waves, will contribute to the general increase in respiratory disease. The practice of allergy being closely aligned with environmental conditions will be especially impacted. Allergists should consider increasing educational activities aimed at making patients more aware of air quality conditions.

RevDate: 2018-09-21

Anonymous (2018)

Impact of Climate Change on Public Health and Implications for Emergency Medicine.

Annals of emergency medicine, 72(4):e49.

RevDate: 2018-09-21

Zhang P, Qiao Y, Schineider M, et al (2019)

Using a hierarchical model framework to assess climate change and hydropower operation impacts on the habitat of an imperiled fish in the Jinsha River, China.

The Science of the total environment, 646:1624-1638.

Climate change and hydropower operations affect hydrological regimes at regional basin scales and impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. The present study proposes a hierarchical modeling framework for predicting and analyzing the impacts of climate change and hydropower on fish habitats. The approach couples multi-scale climate, hydrological, water temperature, hydrodynamic and habitat suitability models and was applied to a reach of the Jinsha River. Flow discharge and water temperature were predicted in the study area for a baseline scenario and three climate change scenarios, and each considered the presence and absence of impacts caused by hydropower operation. The impacts of flow discharge and water temperature variations on spawning and juvenile Coreius guichenoti, an imperiled warm-water fish in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB), were evaluated using a fuzzy logic-based habitat model. The results showed that habitat suitability and available usable area for the fish increased due to climate change, and water temperature rising was the main influencing factor. Water temperature decrease induced by hydropower operation in the spawning periods resulted in the reduction of available habitat area. However, climate change reduced the negative effects generated by hydropower operation, and the available habitat area for the fish would still be expected to increase under the combined impacts of climate change and hydropower operation in the future. It is predicted that water warming, as a result of climate change, is likely to eliminate the spawning postponement effect generated by hydropower operation on Coreius guichenoti as well as other warm-water fish species in the JRB. In contrast, water warming induced by climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of hydropower operation on the spawning activity of cold-water fish species in the JRB. The present study provides a scheme to predict the impacts of climate change and hydropower on other organisms in river ecosystems. The results are beneficial for the development of long-term and adaptive conservation and restoration measures for aquatic ecosystems.

RevDate: 2018-09-19

Fernández-Gómez B, Díez B, Polz MF, et al (2018)

Bacterial community structure in a sympagic habitat expanding with global warming: brackish ice brine at 85-90 °N.

The ISME journal pii:10.1038/s41396-018-0268-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Larger volumes of sea ice have been thawing in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) during the last decades than during the past 800,000 years. Brackish brine (fed by meltwater inside the ice) is an expanding sympagic habitat in summer all over the CAO. We report for the first time the structure of bacterial communities in this brine. They are composed of psychrophilic extremophiles, many of them related to phylotypes known from Arctic and Antarctic regions. Community structure displayed strong habitat segregation between brackish ice brine (IB; salinity 2.4-9.6) and immediate sub-ice seawater (SW; salinity 33.3-34.9), expressed at all taxonomic levels (class to genus), by dominant phylotypes as well as by the rare biosphere, and with specialists dominating IB and generalists SW. The dominant phylotypes in IB were related to Candidatus Aquiluna and Flavobacterium, those in SW to Balneatrix and ZD0405, and those shared between the habitats to Halomonas, Polaribacter and Shewanella. A meta-analysis for the oligotrophic CAO showed a pattern with Flavobacteriia dominating in melt ponds, Flavobacteriia and Gammaproteobacteria in solid ice cores, Flavobacteriia, Gamma- and Betaproteobacteria, and Actinobacteria in brine, and Alphaproteobacteria in SW. Based on our results, we expect that the roles of Actinobacteria and Betaproteobacteria in the CAO will increase with global warming owing to the increased production of meltwater in summer. IB contained three times more phylotypes than SW and may act as an insurance reservoir for bacterial diversity that can act as a recruitment base when environmental conditions change.

RevDate: 2018-09-19

Morton A (2018)

Australia has no climate-change policy - again.

Nature, 561(7723):293-294.

RevDate: 2018-09-19

Kearney GD, Jones K, Bell RA, et al (2018)

Climate Change and Public Health through the Lens of Rural, Eastern North Carolina.

North Carolina medical journal, 79(5):270-277.

BACKGROUND Recognizing that health outcomes are associated with climate threats is important and requires increased attention by health care providers and policymakers. The primary goal of this report is to provide information related to the public health threats of climate change, while identifying climate-sensitive populations primarily in rural, Eastern North Carolina.METHODS Publicly available data was used to evaluate regional (eg, Eastern, Piedmont, and Western) and county level socio-vulnerability characteristics of population groups in North Carolina, including: percent of persons living in poverty, percent of non-white persons, percent of persons under 18 years living in poverty, percent of elderly people living in poverty, percent of persons with a disability, and number of primary care physicians. One-way ANOVA was used to calculate and compare mean value estimates of population socio-vulnerability variables in Eastern North Carolina with Piedmont and Western regions.RESULTS Across all regional categories, the eastern part of the state had considerably higher averages than the state for percent of persons living in poverty (17.2%), percent of non-white persons (13.3%), percent of persons under 18 years old living in poverty (24.9%), percent of elderly people living in poverty (10.0%), and percent of persons with a disability (13.3%). Overwhelmingly, more counties in Eastern North Carolina had fewer primary care physicians (per 10,000 persons) than the state average (8.6 per 10,000 persons).CONCLUSION Eastern North Carolina has a disproportionally higher percent of population groups that are vulnerable to the threats of climate change. The need for health care providers to understand and communicate the challenges faced by rural, vulnerable population groups is of great public health importance. Communicating these health risks to policy makers is of equal importance.

RevDate: 2018-09-20

Roth V, Lemann T, Zeleke G, et al (2018)

Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia.

Heliyon, 4(9):e00771 pii:e00771.

Drawing on hydrology, rainfall, and climatic data from the past 25 years, this article investigates the effects of climate change on water resources in the transnational Blue Nile Basin (BNB). The primary focus is on determining the long-term temporal and seasonal changes in the flows of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia at the border to Sudan. This is important because the Blue Nile is the main tributary to the Nile river, the lifeline of both Sudan and Egypt. Therefore, to begin with long-term trends in hydrological time series were detected by means of both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated using several sub-basins and new high-resolution land use and soil maps. Future climate change impacts were projected using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions based on three different climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Projected time series were analysed for changes in rainfall and streamflow trends. Climate change scenario modelling suggested that the precipitation will increase from 7% to 48% and that streamflow from the BNB could increase by 21% to 97%. The results provide a basis for evaluating future impacts of climate change on the upper Blue Nile River (Abay River). This is the main river basin contributing to the Nile and a source of water for millions of people in Sudan and Egypt, downstream from Ethiopia. Three models (CCCMA, CNRM, MRI) were applied in this research, within two future time periods (2046-2064 and 2081-2099) and one scenario (A1B). The Abay Basin was divided into seven sub-basins, six of which were used as inlets to the lowest basin at the border to Sudan. The above-mentioned results show that under current climate change scenarios there is a strong seasonal shift to be expected from the present main rainfall season (June to September) to an earlier onset from January to May with less pronounced peaks but longer duration of the rainfall season. This has direct consequences on the streamflow of the Blue Nile, which is connected to the rainfall season and therefore has direct effects on the people living in the sphere of influence of the Nile River.

RevDate: 2018-09-18

Rothäusler E, Rugiu L, V Jormalainen (2018)

Forecast climate change conditions sustain growth and physiology but hamper reproduction in range-margin populations of a foundation rockweed species.

Marine environmental research pii:S0141-1136(18)30428-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Intensifying environmental changes due to climate change affect marine species worldwide. Herein, we experimentally tested if the combination of forecasted warming and hyposalinity adversely affected growth, receptacle formation, and photosynthesis of three marginal populations of the brown alga Fucus from the northern Baltic Sea. Growth was not impaired by the projected consequences of climate change but genotypes varied in their responses, suggesting existence of genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity. Climate change further prevented receptacle formation, implying that Fucus fail to reproduce sexually. Photosynthesis was not affected by climate change but varied among populations. Our results show that Fucus populations photosynthesized, grew, and survived well under the projected climate change but their sexual reproduction ceased. This suggests that the marginal populations tested herein are resilient to future conditions but only if asexual reproduction enables them to proliferate.

RevDate: 2018-09-18

Panchen ZA, MO Johnston (2018)

Shifts in pollen release envelope differ between genera with non-uniform climate change.

American journal of botany, 105(9):1568-1576.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Plant phenological responses to climate change now constitute one of the best studied areas of the ecological impacts of climate change. Flowering time responses to climate change of wind-pollinated species have, however, been less well studied. A novel source of flowering time data for wind-pollinated species is allergen monitoring records.

METHODS: We studied the male flowering time response to climatic variables of two wind-pollinated genera, Betula (Betulaceae) and Populus (Salicaceae), using pollen count records over a 17-year period.

KEY RESULTS: We found that changes in the pollen release envelope differed between the two genera. Over the study period, the only month with a significant rise in temperature was April, resulting in the duration of pollen release of the April-flowering Populus to shorten and the start and peak of the May-flowering Betula to advance. The quantity of pollen released by Betula has increased and was related to increases in the previous year's August precipitation, while the quantity of pollen released by Populus has not changed and was related to the previous year's summer and autumn temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that taxa differ in the reproductive consequences of environmental change. Differing shifts in phenology among species may be related to different rates of change in climatic variables in different months of the year. While our study only considers two genera, the results underscore the importance of understanding non-uniform intra-annual variation in climate when studying the ecological implications of climate change.

RevDate: 2018-09-14

Ediriweera DS, Diggle PJ, Kasturiratne A, et al (2018)

Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka: the potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change.

International journal of epidemiology pii:5094971 [Epub ahead of print].

Background: Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that has been overlooked by healthcare decision makers in many countries. Previous studies have reported seasonal variation in hospital admission rates due to snakebites in endemic countries including Sri Lanka, but seasonal patterns have not been investigated in detail.

Methods: A national community-based survey was conducted during the period of August 2012 to June 2013. The survey used a multistage cluster design, sampled 165 665 individuals living in 44 136 households and recorded all recalled snakebite events that had occurred during the preceding year. Log-linear models were fitted to describe the expected number of snakebites occurring in each month, taking into account seasonal trends and weather conditions, and addressing the effects of variation in survey effort during the study and of recall bias amongst survey respondents.

Results: Snakebite events showed a clear seasonal variation. Typically, snakebite incidence is highest during November-December followed by March-May and August, but this can vary between years due to variations in relative humidity, which is also a risk factor. Low relative-humidity levels are associated with high snakebite incidence. If current climate-change projections are correct, this could lead to an increase in the annual snakebite burden of 31.3% (95% confidence interval: 10.7-55.7) during the next 25-50 years.

Conclusions: Snakebite in Sri Lanka shows seasonal variation. Additionally, more snakebites can be expected during periods of lower-than-expected humidity. Global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka.

RevDate: 2018-09-16

Jooste BS, Dokken JV, van Niekerk D, et al (2018)

Challenges to belief systems in the context of climate change adaptation.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 10(1):508 pii:JAMBA-10-508.

This article focuses on the social aspects of climate change and explores the interrelationship between belief systems and adaptation. The links and interaction between external and internal realities are examined from the perspective of contextual vulnerability, with a focus on the multifaceted structure of belief systems. The aim was to determine those challenges regarding climate change adaptation that are caused by a community's belief system and to make recommendations to overcome them. Diverse perceptions of climate change and beliefs from three townships in the North-West Province of South Africa were collected and analysed using Q-methodology, finding five distinct worldview narratives. These narratives were named naturalist collectivist, religious, religious determinist, activist collectivist and structural thinker. It is recommended that policymakers aim to address diverse views and should be informed by factors that increase resistance to belief revision. Information should be framed in ways that foster the perception of internal control, are clearly evidence based and encourage a desire to learn more.

RevDate: 2018-09-16

Patella V, Florio G, Magliacane D, et al (2018)

Urban air pollution and climate change: "The Decalogue: Allergy Safe Tree" for allergic and respiratory diseases care.

Clinical and molecular allergy : CMA, 16:20 pii:98.

Background: According to the World Health Organization, air pollution is closely associated with climate change and, in particular, with global warming. In addition to melting of ice and snow, rising sea level, and flooding of coastal areas, global warming is leading to a tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems. Moreover, the effects of air pollution on airway and lung diseases are well documented as reported by the World Allergy Organization.

Methods: Scientific literature was searched for studies investigating the effect of the interaction between air pollution and climate change on allergic and respiratory diseases.

Results: Since 1990s, a multitude of articles and reviews have been published on this topic, with many studies confirming that the warming of our planet is caused by the "greenhouse effect" as a result of increased emission of "greenhouse" gases. Air pollution is also closely linked to global warming: the emission of hydrocarbon combustion products leads to increased concentrations of biological allergens such as pollens, generating a mixture of these particles called particulate matter (PM). The concept is that global warming is linked to the emission of hydrocarbon combustion products, since both carbon dioxide and heat increase pollen emission into the atmosphere, and all these particles make up PM10. However, the understanding of the mechanisms by which PM affects human health is still limited. Therefore, several studies are trying to determine the causes of global warming. There is also evidence that increased concentrations of air pollutants and pollens can activate inflammatory mediators in the airways. Our Task Force has prepared a Decalogue of rules addressing public administrators, which aims to limit the amount of allergenic pollen in the air without sacrificing public green areas.

Conclusions: Several studies underscore the significant risks of global warming on human health due to increasing levels of air pollution. The impact of climate change on respiratory diseases appears well documented. The last decades have seen a rise in the concentrations of pollens and pollutants in the air. This rise parallels the increase in the number of people presenting with allergic symptoms (e.g., allergic rhinitis, conjunctivitis, and asthma), who often require emergency medical care. Our hope is that scientists from different disciplines will work together with institutions, pharmaceutical companies and lay organizations to limit the adverse health effects of air pollution and global warming.

RevDate: 2018-09-14

Kumar S, Bhavya PS, Ramesh R, et al (2018)

Nitrogen uptake potential under different temperature-salinity conditions: Implications for nitrogen cycling under climate change scenarios.

Marine environmental research pii:S0141-1136(18)30366-0 [Epub ahead of print].

As projected by climate change models, increase in sea surface temperature and precipitation in the future may alter nutrient cycling in the coastal regions due to potential changes in phytoplankton community structure and their ability to assimilate nitrogen (N) and carbon (C). An experiment simulating different temperature and salinity conditions (28°C-35 ambient conditions, 28ºC-31, 31ºC-35 and 31ºC-31) in mesocosms containing 1000 L of coastal water from the Arabian Sea was performed and N uptake rates were measured using 15N tracer technique on 2nd, 5th, 7th and 10th day of the experiment. The results show that, under all conditions, the total N (NO3- + NH4+) uptake rates were lower in the beginning and on the final day of the tracer experiment, while it peaked during middle, consistent with chlorophyll a concentrations. Total N uptake rate was significantly lower (p = 0.003) under ambient temperature-lower salinity condition (28ºC-31) than the others. This indicates that lowering of salinity in coastal regions due to excessive rainfall in the future may affect the N uptake potential of the phytoplankton, which may change the regional C and N budget.

RevDate: 2018-10-14

Yang Y, Liu G, Ye C, et al (2019)

Bacterial community and climate change implication affected the diversity and abundance of antibiotic resistance genes in wetlands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Journal of hazardous materials, 361:283-293.

Antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) have been identified as emerging pollutants in the environment. However, little information is available for ARGs in natural wetlands at high altitude. In this study, we investigated 32 wetlands across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, with the variation of wetland types, altitude, and environmental factors, to assess the determinant factor of ARGs in this area. ARGs were detected in all the wetlands, ranged from 1.80 × 105 to 1.35 × 107 copies per gram of soils. The ARGs in wetland soils were diverse and abundant, and varied from each site, but the spatial geographical distance did not influence the ARG profile. The mobile genetic elements in wetlands ranged from 3.13 × 103 to 1.02 × 106 copies per gram of soil, indicating the low abundance of mobile genetic elements suggests a lower transfer rate of ARGs between bacteria in the Plateau. Bacterial community composition was the main driver in shaping the ARG diversity and geographic distribution. Soil moisture and temperature were positively correlated with ARG abundance in this region. These results not only provide a better understanding of the background levels of ARGs in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but also shed light on the influence of climate change and increased human activities on the distribution of ARGs.

RevDate: 2018-09-13

Sutton R (2018)

Attributing extreme weather to climate change is not a done deal.

Nature, 561(7722):177.

RevDate: 2018-09-13

Newman M (2018)

Global hunger grows amid conflict and climate change.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 362:k3893.

RevDate: 2018-09-28

Vieira KS, Montenegro PFG, Santana GG, et al (2018)

Effect of climate change on distribution of species of common horned frogs in South America.

PloS one, 13(9):e0202813 pii:PONE-D-17-37339.

Our main objectives were to verify the effect of climate change on distribution of frogs of the family Ceratophryidae and if the legal protection areas in South America will be effective or ineffective in ensuring the preservation of the toads this family in coming decades. The results showed that in the last 140,000 years, species of the family Ceratophryidae expanded and contracted their distribution areas, which naturally reflected the climate and vegetation changes in the Quaternary of South America. The maps of projections showed that changes in temperature determined the area of habitat suitability of 63.7% of the species of ceratophrids both during the last interglacial period and nowadays, and it seems that this will also be the case for the next 62 years. Given the current concerns about future extinctions in the tropics, it is prudent to examine, with special attention, the effects of climate fluctuations on the diversity and distribution of species, because the current estimates of reduction in biodiversity caused by habitat destruction and emission of greenhouse gases are comparable to estimated reductions during glacial intervals.

RevDate: 2018-09-12

Anisimov O, R Orttung (2018)

Climate change in Northern Russia through the prism of public perception.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-018-1096-x [Epub ahead of print].

This article fills a major hole in the Western literature on climate change perceptions by reporting detailed data from Russia. While Northern Russia demonstrates high rates of climate change, regional adaptation policies are yet to be established. Complicating the problem, how the Russian public perceives climate change remains poorly known. This study synthesizes data from observations, modeling, and sociological surveys, and gives insight into the public perceptions of current and projected future changes in climate. Results indicate that, similar to what is found in the Western context, unusual weather patterns and single extreme events have a deeper impact than long-term climate change on public perceptions. The majority of the population considers climate and environmental changes locally, does not associate them with global drivers, and is not prepared to act on them. Accordingly, even the best designed climate policies cannot be implemented in Northern Russia, because there is no public demand for them. To address this situation, climate scientists should work to educate members of the public about basic scientific concepts so that they begin to demand better climate policies.

RevDate: 2018-09-12

Anonymous (2018)

Caches of mummified penguins warn of climate-change impacts.

Nature, 561(7722):152.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Niu Y, Yang S, Zhou J, et al (2019)

Vegetation distribution along mountain environmental gradient predicts shifts in plant community response to climate change in alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 1):505-514.

Plants are particularly sensitive to climate change in alpine ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau. The various mountain micro-climates provide a natural gradient for space-for-time substitution research that plant responses to climate change. In this study, we surveyed the plant community in term of species composition, diversity and biomass across 189 sites on a hill of the Tibetan Plateau and analysed the individual and integrated effects of soil temperature and moisture on the plant community. The results showed that, at the quadrat scale, there were decrease in richness of 1.08 species for every 1 °C increase in soil temperature and 3.56 species for every 10% decrease in soil moisture. The integrated effects of increasing soil temperature and decreasing moisture are expected to lead to a rapid decrease in species richness. Biomass had no significant correlation with soil temperature but significantly decreased with soil moisture decreasing (p < 0.01). Biomass would decrease when soil moisture was below 20%, no matter how the change of soil temperature. We also found that gramineae and perennial forbs were sensitive to climate change. With soil temperature increased, the proportion of gramineae increased, whereas the proportion of perennial forbs decreased. The integrated effects of soil temperature increasing and moisture decreasing caused a shift from sedge-controlled to gramineae-controlled communities in alpine meadow. This study not only enhances our understanding of mountain plant community dynamics under climate change, but also predicts the shift of vegetation response to climate change on high-elevation alpine meadow.

RevDate: 2018-10-14

Cynk KW (2018)

The process of climate change in mass media discourse using the example of Polish and international editions of "Newsweek" magazine.

Environmental science and pollution research international, 25(31):31439-31449.

The main objective of the article is to conduct a critical media discourse analysis as presented in the Polish and international editions of the "Newsweek" magazine in the years 2001-2006 and 2012-2016; the subject of which was climate change. The introduction provides the definitions of the key terms, such as: the greenhouse effect and critical discourse analysis (CDA). The theoretical part presents the most important assumptions of the CDA and presents a characteristic of the weekly. The results of the conducted quantitative and qualitative analysis partially lead to varying conclusions. Based on the CDA, the hypothesis was assumed that more attention was provided to climate change in the international (English) edition of "Newsweek", than in the Polish-language edition. Rejected in turn was the hypothesis, according to which, more importance to climate change and their repercussions was provided in the discourse within the last 5 years of publication of the weekly than in the discourse from the years 2001-2006. As a result of comparison of both discourses, the disturbing fact that media discourse did not present and encourage among the readers an active stance in favour of the climate was noticed. It is the task of this influential weekly, the message of which reaches many people, not only to provide knowledge and shape specific values or view, but also to encourage and popularise attitudes in favour of the climate. If man wants to continue to live on earth, then one of their goals is to modify the form of discourse by entities responsible for its form.

RevDate: 2018-09-14

Shabani F, Kumar L, R Hamdan Saif Al Shidi (2018)

Impacts of climate change on infestations of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) on date palms in Oman.

PeerJ, 6:e5545 pii:5545.

Climate change has determined shifts in distributions of species and is likely to affect species in the future. Our study aimed to (i) demonstrate the linkage between spatial climatic variability and the current and historical Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) distribution in Oman and (ii) model areas becoming highly suitable for the pest in the future. The Dubas bug is a pest of date palm trees that can reduce the crop yield by 50% under future climate scenarios in Oman. Projections were made in three species distribution models; generalized linear model, maximum entropy, boosted regression tree using of four global circulation models (GCMs) (a) HadGEM2, (b) CCSM4, (c) MIROC5 and (d) HadGEM2-AO, under four representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We utilized the most commonly used threshold of maximum sensitivity + specificity for classifying outputs. Results indicated that northern Oman is currently at great risk of Dubas bug infestations (highly suitable climatically) and the infestations level will remain high in 2050 and 2070. Other non-climatic integrated pest management methods may be greater value than climatic parameters for monitoring infestation levels, and may provide more effective strategies to manage Dubas bug infestations in Oman. This would ensure the continuing competitiveness of Oman in the global date fruit market and preserve national yields.

RevDate: 2018-09-11

Froehlich HE, Gentry RR, BS Halpern (2018)

Global change in marine aquaculture production potential under climate change.

Nature ecology & evolution pii:10.1038/s41559-018-0669-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is an immediate and future threat to food security globally. The consequences for fisheries and agriculture production potential are well studied, yet the possible outcomes for aquaculture (that is, aquatic farming)-one of the fastest growing food sectors on the planet-remain a major gap in scientific understanding. With over one-third of aquaculture produced in marine waters and this proportion increasing, it is critical to anticipate new opportunities and challenges in marine production under climate change. Here, we model and map the effect of warming ocean conditions (Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 8.5) on marine aquaculture production potential over the next century, based on thermal tolerance and growth data of 180 cultured finfish and bivalve species. We find heterogeneous patterns of gains and losses, but an overall greater probability of declines worldwide. Accounting for multiple drivers of species growth, including shifts in temperature, chlorophyll and ocean acidification, reveals potentially greater declines in bivalve aquaculture compared with finfish production. This study addresses a missing component in food security research and sustainable development planning by identifying regions that will face potentially greater climate change challenges and resilience with regards to marine aquaculture in the coming decades. Understanding the scale and magnitude of future increases and reductions in aquaculture potential is critical for designing effective and efficient use and protection of the oceans, and ultimately for feeding the planet sustainably.

RevDate: 2018-10-14

Ebi KL, Boyer C, Bowen KJ, et al (2018)

Monitoring and Evaluation Indicators for Climate Change-Related Health Impacts, Risks, Adaptation, and Resilience.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(9): pii:ijerph15091943.

Climate change poses a range of current and future health risks that health professionals need to understand, track, and manage. However, conventional monitoring and evaluation (M&E) as practiced in the health sector, including the use of indicators, does not adequately serve this purpose. Improved indicators are needed in three broad categories: (1) vulnerability and exposure to climate-related hazards; (2) current impacts and projected risks; and (3) adaptation processes and health system resilience. These indicators are needed at the population level and at the health systems level (including clinical care and public health). Selected indicators must be sensitive, valid, and useful. And they must account for uncertainties about the magnitude and pattern of climate change; the broad range of upstream drivers of climate-sensitive health outcomes; and the complexities of adaptation itself, including institutional learning and knowledge management to inform iterative risk management. Barriers and constraints to implementing such indicators must be addressed, and lessons learned need to be added to the evidence base. This paper describes an approach to climate and health indicators, including characteristics of the indicators, implementation, and research needs.

RevDate: 2018-10-14

Chersich MF, Wright CY, Venter F, et al (2018)

Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(9): pii:ijerph15091884.

Given its associated burden of disease, climate change in South Africa could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent health-sector response. The growing impact of climate change has major implications for South Africa, especially for the numerous vulnerable groups in the country. We systematically reviewed the literature by searching PubMed and Web of Science. Of the 820 papers screened, 34 were identified that assessed the impacts of climate change on health in the country. Most papers covered effects of heat on health or on infectious diseases (20/34; 59%). We found that extreme weather events are the most noticeable effects to date, especially droughts in the Western Cape, but rises in vector-borne diseases are gaining prominence. Climate aberration is also linked in myriad ways with outbreaks of food and waterborne diseases, and possibly with the recent Listeria epidemic. The potential impacts of climate change on mental health may compound the multiple social stressors that already beset the populace. Climate change heightens the pre-existing vulnerabilities of women, fishing communities, rural subsistence farmers and those living in informal settlements. Further gender disparities, eco-migration and social disruptions may undermine the prevention-but also treatment-of HIV. Our findings suggest that focused research and effective use of surveillance data are required to monitor climate change's impacts; traditional strengths of the country's health sector. The health sector, hitherto a fringe player, should assume a greater leadership role in promoting policies that protect the public's health, address inequities and advance the country's commitments to climate change accords.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Trauernicht C (2019)

Vegetation-Rainfall interactions reveal how climate variability and climate change alter spatial patterns of wildland fire probability on Big Island, Hawaii.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 1):459-469.

The area burned annually by wildland fire in Hawaii has increased fourfold in recent decades. The archipelago's novel fuel types and climatic heterogeneity pose significant challenges for fire risk assessment and fire management. Probability-based fire occurrence models using historical wildfire records provide a means to assess and attribute fire risk in regions of the world like Hawaii where investment in fire science is limited. This research used generalized additive models to 1) assess the relative contribution of vegetation, climate, and human-caused ignitions to the probability of fire in the northwest quadrant of Hawaii Island and 2) compare how landscape flammability varies due to interannual rainfall variability versus projected changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR) and temperature. Annual fire probability was highest for grasslands and peaked at drier conditions (0.04 at 450 mm MAR) when compared with shrublands (0.03 at 650 mm MAR) and forest (0.015 at 600 mm MAR). Excess rainfall the year prior to fire occurrence increased fire risk across grasslands, and thus overall fire probability, more so than drought the year that fire occurred. Drying and warming trends for the region under projected climate change increased maximum values of fire probability by as much as 375% and shifted areas of peak landscape flammability to higher elevation. Model predictions under future climate also indicate the largest changes in landscape flammability will happen by mid-Century. The influence of antecedent wet years on fire risk can improve near-term predictions of fire risk in Hawaii while climate projections indicate that fire management will need to be prioritized at upper elevations where high value natural resources are concentrated.

RevDate: 2018-10-10

Pandey VP, Dhaubanjar S, Bharati L, et al (2019)

Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 650(Pt 1):365-383.

Chamelia (catchment area = 1603 km2), a tributary of Mahakali, is a snow-fed watershed in Western Nepal. The watershed has 14 hydropower projects at various stages of development. This study simulated the current and future hydrological system of Chamelia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated for 2001-2007; validated for 2008-2013; and then applied to assess streamflow response to projected future climate scenarios. Multi-site calibration ensures that the model is capable of reproducing hydrological heterogeneity within the watershed. Current water balance above the Q120 hydrological station in the forms of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and net water yield are 2469 mm, 381 mm and 1946 mm, respectively. Outputs of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future periods were considered for assessing climate change impacts. An ensemble of bias-corrected RCM projections showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures is projected to increase from the baseline by 0.9 °C (1.1 °C), 1.4 °C (2.1 °C), and 1.6 °C (3.4 °C), respectively. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods are projected to increase by 0.9 °C (1.2 °C), 1.6 °C (2.5 °C), and 2.0 °C (3.9 °C), respectively. Average annual precipitation under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10% (11%), 10% (15%), and 13% (15%), respectively. Based on the five RCMs considered, there is a high consensus for increase in temperature but higher uncertainty with respect to precipitations. Under these projected changes, average annual streamflow was simulated to increase gradually from the near to far future under both RCPs; for instance, by 8.2% in near-, 12.2% in mid-, and 15.0% in far-future under RCP4.5 scenarios. The results are useful for planning water infrastructure projects, in Chamelia and throughout the Mahakali basin, to ensure long-term sustainability under climate change.

RevDate: 2018-10-17

Arbuthnott K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, et al (2018)

What is cold-related mortality? A multi-disciplinary perspective to inform climate change impact assessments.

Environment international, 121(Pt 1):119-129 pii:S0160-4120(18)30899-7 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: There is a growing discussion regarding the mortality burdens of hot and cold weather and how the balance between these may alter as a result of climate change. Net effects of climate change are often presented, and in some settings these may suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality will outweigh increases in heat-related mortality. However, key to these discussions is that the magnitude of temperature-related mortality is wholly sensitive to the placement of the temperature threshold above or below which effects are modelled. For cold exposure especially, where threshold effects are often ill-defined, choices in threshold placement have varied widely between published studies, even within the same location. Despite this, there is little discussion around appropriate threshold selection and whether reported associations reflect true causal relationships - i.e. whether all deaths occurring below a given temperature threshold can be regarded as cold-related and are therefore likely to decrease as climate warms.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives are to initiate a discussion around the importance of threshold placement and examine evidence for causality across the full range of temperatures used to quantify cold-related mortality. We examine whether understanding causal mechanisms can inform threshold selection, the interpretation of current and future cold-related health burdens and their use in policy formation.

METHODS: Using Greater London data as an example, we first illustrate the sensitivity of cold related mortality to threshold selection. Using the Bradford Hill criteria as a framework, we then integrate knowledge and evidence from multiple disciplines and areas- including animal and human physiology, epidemiology, biomarker studies and population level studies. This allows for discussion of several possible direct and indirect causal mechanisms operating across the range of 'cold' temperatures and lag periods used in health impact studies, and whether this in turn can inform appropriate threshold placement.

RESULTS: Evidence from a range of disciplines appears to support a causal relationship for cold across a range of temperatures and lag periods, although there is more consistent evidence for a causal effect at more extreme temperatures. It is plausible that 'direct' mechanisms for cold mortality are likely to occur at lower temperatures and 'indirect' mechanisms (e.g. via increased spread of infection) may occur at milder temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS: Separating the effects of 'extreme' and 'moderate' cold (e.g. temperatures between approximately 8-9 °C and 18 °C in the UK) could help the interpretation of studies quoting attributable mortality burdens. However there remains the general dilemma of whether it is better to use a lower cold threshold below which we are more certain of a causal relationship, but at the risk of under-estimating deaths attributable to cold.

RevDate: 2018-09-14

Akbarpour S, MH Niksokhan (2018)

Investigating effects of climate change, urbanization, and sea level changes on groundwater resources in a coastal aquifer: an integrated assessment.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 190(10):579 pii:10.1007/s10661-018-6953-3.

Urbanization and climate change are causing numerous side effects on groundwater resources. In this study, an integrated modeling approach by linking soil and water application tool (SWAT), modular finite difference groundwater flow (MODFLOW), and three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow coupled with multi-species solute and heat transport (SEAWAT) models were used to exhibit responses of groundwater systems, in terms of flow and salt concentrations to current and future climatic and anthropogenic changes. Future climate scenarios for periods of 2010-2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM) for scenarios A1B, B1, and A2 which was downscaled by the Long Ashton Research Station weather generator (LARS-WG) providing precipitation and temperature patterns for the period 2018-2040. The GCM's outputs were applied to SWAT model to estimate recharge rate for the ten scenarios designed to assess the sensitivity of the aquifer to urbanization and climate change. The estimated recharge rate from SWAT was utilized as an input in numerical groundwater model to evaluate saltwater intrusion (SWI), changes in freshwater storage within the aquifer system, and changes in groundwater level. Based on the results of each scenario's simulation, increase of pumping rate yield by future population growth will have more adverse effects on the unconfined aquifer. The derived information from this study can be used to improve future works by developing a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged response of freshwater storage and unconfined groundwater systems to climate change and anthropogenic activities.

RevDate: 2018-09-11

Alava JJ, Cisneros-Montemayor AM, Sumaila UR, et al (2018)

Projected amplification of food web bioaccumulation of MeHg and PCBs under climate change in the Northeastern Pacific.

Scientific reports, 8(1):13460 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-31824-5.

Climate change increases exposure and bioaccumulation of pollutants in marine organisms, posing substantial ecophysiological and ecotoxicological risks. Here, we applied a trophodynamic ecosystem model to examine the bioaccumulation of organic mercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a Northeastern Pacific marine food web under climate change. We found largely heterogeneous sensitivity in climate-pollution impacts between chemicals and trophic groups. Concentration of MeHg and PCBs in top predators, including resident killer whales, is projected to be amplified by 8 and 3%, respectively, by 2100 under a high carbon emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) relative to a no-climate change control scenario. However, the level of amplification increases with higher carbon emission scenario for MeHg, but decreases for PCBs. Such idiosyncratic responses are shaped by the differences in bioaccumulation pathways between MeHg and PCBs, and the modifications of food web dynamics between different levels of climate change. Climate-induced pollutant amplification in mid-trophic level predators (Chinook salmon) are projected to be higher (~10%) than killer whales. Overall, the predicted trophic magnification factor is ten-fold higher in MeHg than in PCBs under high CO2 emissions. This contribution highlights the importance of understanding the interactions with anthropogenic organic pollutants in assessing climate risks on marine ecosystems.

RevDate: 2018-09-07

Hutchins SS, Bouye K, Luber G, et al (2018)

Public Health Agency Responses and Opportunities to Protect Against Health Impacts of Climate Change Among US Populations with Multiple Vulnerabilities.

Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities pii:10.1007/s40615-017-0402-9 [Epub ahead of print].

During the past several decades, unprecedented global changes in climate have given rise to an increase in extreme weather and other climate events and their consequences such as heavy rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, heat waves, wildfires, and air pollution. These climate effects have direct impacts on human health such as premature death, injuries, exacerbation of health conditions, disruption of mental well-being, as well as indirect impacts through food- and water-related infections and illnesses. While all populations are at risk for these adverse health outcomes, some populations are at greater risk because of multiple vulnerabilities resulting from increased exposure to risk-prone areas, increased sensitivity due to underlying health conditions, and limited adaptive capacity primarily because of a lack of economic resources to respond adequately. We discuss current governmental public health responses and their future opportunities to improve resilience of special populations at greatest risk for adverse health outcomes. Vulnerability assessment, adaptation plans, public health emergency response, and public health agency accreditation are all current governmental public health actions. Governmental public health opportunities include integration of these current responses with health equity initiatives and programs in communities.

RevDate: 2018-09-11

Chen C, Guerit L, Foreman BZ, et al (2018)

Estimating regional flood discharge during Palaeocene-Eocene global warming.

Scientific reports, 8(1):13391 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-31076-3.

Among the most urgent challenges in future climate change scenarios is accurately predicting the magnitude to which precipitation extremes will intensify. Analogous changes have been reported for an episode of millennial-scale 5 °C warming, termed the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), providing independent constraints on hydrological response to global warming. However, quantifying hydrologic extremes during geologic global warming analogs has proven difficult. Here we show that water discharge increased by at least 1.35 and potentially up to 14 times during the early phase of the PETM in northern Spain. We base these estimates on analyses of channel dimensions, sediment grain size, and palaeochannel gradients across the early PETM, which is regionally marked by an abrupt transition from overbank palaeosol deposits to conglomeratic fluvial sequences. We infer that extreme floods and channel mobility quickly denuded surrounding soil-mantled landscapes, plausibly enhanced by regional vegetation decline, and exported enormous quantities of terrigenous material towards the ocean. These results support hypotheses that extreme rainfall events and associated risks of flooding increase with global warming at similar, but potentially at much higher, magnitudes than currently predicted.

RevDate: 2018-09-16

Halley JM, Van Houtan KS, N Mantua (2018)

How survival curves affect populations' vulnerability to climate change.

PloS one, 13(9):e0203124 pii:PONE-D-17-41424.

Human activities are exposing organisms not only to direct threats (e.g. habitat loss) but also to indirect environmental pressures such as climate change, which involves not just directional global warming but also increasing climatic variability. Such changes will impact whole communities of organisms and the possible effects on population dynamics have raised concerns about increased extinction rates. Conservation-minded approaches to extinction risk vary from range shifts predicted by climate envelope models with no population dynamics to population viability analyses that ignore environmental variability altogether. Our modelling study shows that these extremes are modelling responses to a spectrum of environmental sensitivity that organisms may exhibit. We show how the survival curve plays a major role in how environmental variability leads to population fluctuations. While it is often supposed that low-fecundity organisms (those with high parental investment) will be the most vulnerable to climate change, it is those with high fecundity (low parental investment) that are likely to be more sensitive to such changes. We also find that abundance variations in high fecundity populations is driven primarily by fluctuations in the survival of early life stages, the more so if those environmental changes are autocorrelated in time. We show which types of conservation actions are most appropriate for a number of real populations. While the most effective conservation actions for organisms of low fecundity is to avoid killing them, for populations with high fecundity (and low parental investment), our study suggests conservation should focus more on protecting early life stages from hostile environments.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
21454 NE 143rd Street
Woodinville, WA 98077

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )