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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 21 Feb 2019 at 01:48 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-02-20

Muller M (2019)

Hydropower dams can help mitigate the global warming impact of wetlands.

Nature, 566(7744):315-317.

RevDate: 2019-02-19

Hasan MK, L Kumar (2019)

Comparison between meteorological data and farmer perceptions of climate change and vulnerability in relation to adaptation.

Journal of environmental management, 237:54-62 pii:S0301-4797(19)30179-3 [Epub ahead of print].

How farmers perceive climate change has an influence on how they adapt to climate change. Climate change perception and vulnerability were assessed based on the household survey information collected from randomly selected 118 farmers of Kalapara subdistrict in Bangladesh. This paper identified the socio-economic covariates of climate change perception and vulnerability in relation to agricultural adaptation. It was also determined whether their perception was consistent with meteorological information. Findings revealed that the farmers had a moderate level of perception of and vulnerability to climate change. An overwhelming majority (98%) of the respondents perceived a warmer summer and 96% of them observed a colder winter compared to the past. Among the farmers, 91% believed that rainfall had increased and 97% thought that the timing of rainfall had changed. The belief of increase in soil salinity and associated loss was prevailing among 98 and 99% of them, respectively. Observed climate data were mostly aligned with the farmers' perception with respect to temperature, rainfall, floods, droughts and salinity. Positive correlations were found among the perception of climate change, the perception of vulnerability and the number of adopted adaptation practices. Farmers' level of understanding of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation practices could be improved by involving them in different organizations, such as climate field school and farmer associations. It could accelerate the dissemination of agricultural adaptation practices among them to cope with adverse agricultural impacts of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-02-19

Ross LC, Speed JDM, Øien DI, et al (2019)

Can mowing restore boreal rich-fen vegetation in the face of climate change?.

PloS one, 14(2):e0211272 pii:PONE-D-18-23173.

Low-frequency mowing has been proposed to be an effective strategy for the restoration and management of boreal fens after abandonment of traditional haymaking. This study investigates how mowing affects long-term vegetation change in both oceanic and continental boreal rich-fen vegetation. This will allow evaluation of the effectiveness of mowing as a management and restoration tool in this ecosystem in the face of climate change. At two nature reserves in Central Norway (Tågdalen, 63° 03' N, 9° 05 E, oceanic climate and Sølendet, 62° 40' N, 11° 50' E, continental climate), we used permanent plot data from the two sites to compare plant species composition from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with that recorded in 2012-2015 in abandoned and mown fens. Changes in species composition and frequency were analysed by multivariate and univariate methods in relation to environmental variables and modelled climate and groundwater data. Mowing resulted in a decline in shrub and Molinia caerulea cover at the continental and oceanic sites respectively, and the total cover of specialist fen species had increased to a significantly greater extent in the mown plots than the unmown at the continental site. However, mowing did not have an effect on the cover of specialist bryophyte species, and some specialist species declined regardless of mowing treatment. Temperature sums had increased at both sites, but precipitation had not changed significantly. Mowing was shown to be the most important determinant of plant community composition at both sites, with local environmental conditions being of secondary importance. In conclusion, the abandonment of traditional management practices results in the loss of characteristic fen species. In order to encourage the restoration of typical rich-fen vegetation, particularly in oceanic areas, additional management measures, such as more intensive mowing, may be required.

RevDate: 2019-02-19

Santana Junior PA, Kumar L, Da Silva RS, et al (2019)

Assessing the impact of climate change on the worldwide distribution of Dalbulus maidis (DeLong) using MaxEnt.

Pest management science [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: For the first time, a model was applied at the global scale in order to investigate the effects of climate change on Dalbulus maidis. D. maidis is the main vector of three plant pathogens of maize crops and has been reported as one of the most important maize pests in Latin America. We modeled the effects of climate change on this pest using three Global Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the MaxEnt software.

RESULTS: Overall, climate change will lead to a decrease in the suitable areas for D. maidis. In South America, climate change will decrease the areas that are suitable for the pest, especially in Brazil. However, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela will have small areas that are highly suitable for the corn leafhopper. Outside of the pest's range, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Africa also should be concerned about the risk of corn leafhopper invasions in the future since they are projected to have highly suitable conditions for this insect in some areas.

CONCLUSION: This study will allow the relevant countries to increase their quarantine measures and guide researchers to develop new Z. mays varieties that are resistant or tolerant to D. maidis. In addition, the maize-stunting pathogens for the areas are highlighted in this modeling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-02-19

Kosanic A, Kavcic I, van Kleunen M, et al (2019)

Climate change and climate change velocity analysis across Germany.

Scientific reports, 9(1):2196 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-38720-6.

Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901-2015, 1901-1950 and 1951-2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951-2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951-2015) and winter (1901-2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of -3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies.

RevDate: 2019-02-18

Ren S, Qin Q, H Ren (2019)

Contrasting wheat phenological responses to climate change in global scale.

The Science of the total environment, 665:620-631 pii:S0048-9697(19)30442-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Comprehensive analysis of how wheat phenology responds to environmental factors in global scale is helpful for tackling the possible adverse effects of ongoing climate change on wheat production. In this study, six phenological parameters of global wheat, i.e., the growing season start (SGS), peak (PGS), end (EGS), length (LGS), as well as the vegetative period length (LVP) and reproductive period length (LRP), were retrieved from remote sensing data (1981-2014) by threshold-, logistic-, and shape-based methods. And then, we analyzed the effects of temperature, precipitation, short-wave (SW) radiation, and frost on spatiotemporal patterns of wheat phenology. In addition, haze impacts on wheat phenology were investigated in China and India where haze weather appears frequently in winter-spring seasons. Results showed that the occurrence time of SGS/PGS/EGS is gradually advanced from the pole to the equator and annual mean air temperature can explain >70% of their spatial variations. A dominant advanced SGS/PGS/EGS and a shortened LGS/LVP/LRP were detected in the study region due to the significant increase in temperature and SW radiation, as well as the decrease in frost days. Interannual fluctuations of SGS/PGS/EGS are primarily controlled by air temperature, while precipitation and frost only exerted some obvious impacts in some locations. Higher preseason temperature would induce an earlier wheat phenology and a shorter growing season, while adequate precipitation and frequent frost in preseason could delay the occurrence timing of wheat phenology and lead to a longer growing season. Besides, the decreased temperature resulted from severe haze weather may have partly counteracted the global-warming-induced advancing trend of wheat phenology in China, but further advanced the occurrence timing of wheat phenology through prompting vernalization in India. Overall, though wheat growth is largely constrained by human management, we still highlight the strong impacts of global climate change on wheat phenology.

RevDate: 2019-02-18

Jorgenson AK, Fiske S, Hubacek K, et al (2019)

Social science perspectives on drivers of and responses to global climate change.

Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change, 10(1):e554.

This article provides a review of recent anthropological, archeological, geographical, and sociological research on anthropogenic drivers of climate change, with a particular focus on drivers of carbon emissions, mitigation and adaptation. The four disciplines emphasize cultural, economic, geographic, historical, political, and social-structural factors to be important drivers of and responses to climate change. Each of these disciplines has unique perspectives and makes noteworthy contributions to our shared understanding of anthropogenic drivers, but they also complement one another and contribute to integrated, multidisciplinary frameworks. The article begins with discussions of research on temporal dimensions of human drivers of carbon emissions, highlighting interactions between long-term and near-term drivers. Next, descriptions of the disciplines' contributions to the understanding of mitigation and adaptation are provided. It concludes with a summary of key lessons offered by the four disciplines as well as suggestions for future research. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change.

RevDate: 2019-02-17

Zhang S, Zhang J, Yue T, et al (2019)

Impacts of climate change on urban rainwater harvesting systems.

The Science of the total environment, 665:262-274 pii:S0048-9697(19)30623-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is promoted in many cities (e.g., Beijing and Shenzhen) as a climate change adaptation measure to relieve urban water supply and drainage pressures. In this study, the impacts of future climate change on water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems at cities across four climatic zones of China are investigated. A downscaling technique based on the Climate Generator is evaluated and employed to generate future (2020-2050) daily rainfall data. Performance indices of RWH systems (i.e., water saving efficiency, reliability, and stormwater capture efficiency) calculated using both the future and historical (1985-2015) daily rainfall data are compared. Two water demand scenarios (i.e., lawn irrigation and toilet flushing) are included in the investigation. The water saving performance is positively affected by the increases in future rainfall at the four cities, while the stormwater capture performance is negatively affected as a larger tank size is required to achieve a desired stormwater capture efficiency in the future period. The responses of water saving and stormwater capture performances of RWH systems to climate change are varying with not only the system dimensions (i.e., storage capacity and catchment area), but also the water demand scenarios and locations. RWH systems with larger storage capacity for larger water demand scenarios at humid and semi-humid cities is expected to be more resilient to climate change. The various changing patterns of the performance indices highlight the importance of incorporating climate change in the design of RWH systems. Location-specific adaptive adjustments (e.g., adjusting tank sizes, catchment areas or water demand rates) need to be adopted so that RWH systems can sustainably meet water saving and stormwater control requirements under future climate conditions.

RevDate: 2019-02-16

Perera F, Ashrafi A, Kinney P, et al (2018)

Towards a fuller assessment of benefits to children's health of reducing air pollution and mitigating climate change due to fossil fuel combustion.

Environmental research, 172:55-72 pii:S0013-9351(18)30645-5 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Fossil fuel combustion by-products, including particulate matter (PM2.5), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), are a significant threat to children's health and equality. Various policies to reduce emissions have been implemented to reduce air pollution and mitigate climate change, with sizeable estimated health and economic benefits. However, only a few adverse outcomes in children have been considered, resulting in an undercounting of the benefits to this vulnerable population.

OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to expand the suite of child health outcomes addressed by programs to assess health and economic benefits, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), by identifying concentration-response (C-R) functions for six outcomes related to PM2.5, NO2, PAH, and/or PM10: preterm birth (PTB), low birthweight (LBW), autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, IQ reduction, and the development of childhood asthma.

METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of the literature published between January 1, 2000 and April 30, 2018 to identify relevant peer-reviewed case-control and cohort studies and meta-analyses. In some cases meta-analyses were available that provided reliable C-R functions and we assessed their consistency with subsequent studies. Otherwise, we reviewed all eligible studies published between our search dates.

RESULTS: For each pollutant and health outcome, we present the characteristics of each selected study. We distinguish between C-R functions for endpoints having a causal or likely relationship (PTB, LBW, autism, asthma development) with the pollutants for incorporation into primary analyses and endpoints having a suggestive causal relationship with the pollutants (IQ reduction, ADHD) for secondary analyses.

CONCLUSION: We have identified C-R functions for a number of adverse health outcomes in children associated with air pollutants largely from fossil fuel combustion. Their incorporation into expanded assessments of health benefits of clean air and climate mitigation policies will provide an important incentive for preventive action.

RevDate: 2019-02-15

Mendenhall E, M Singer (2019)

The global syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change.

RevDate: 2019-02-14

Gao C, Liu L, Ma D, et al (2019)

Assessing responses of hydrological processes to climate change over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on resampling of future climate scenarios.

The Science of the total environment, 664:737-752 pii:S0048-9697(19)30491-7 [Epub ahead of print].

With global warming, hydrological regimes in the headwater basins of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have significantly changed. Investigating the responses of hydrological processes to climate change in TP has become more and more important to make robust strategies for water resources management. However, using just a few GCMs may constrain the uncertainty in assessment of climate impacts. Therefore, a framework is proposed in this study to generate ensemble climate change scenarios and then investigate changes of hydrological processes under climate change in the upper reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River basin (UYZR) and Lancang River basin (ULR). Firstly, the Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) is used to generate an ensemble of future climate change scenarios by resampling change factors of meteorological variables from 18 GCMs under emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The inherent dependence structures of change factors, i.e. the correlations of change factors among 12 months for different meteorological variables, are also considered in ensembles. Secondly, the HBV hydrological model coupled with a degree-day snowmelt model is applied to explore the potential change of runoff in the future period 2041-2070. Results show that: 1) the resampling method is effective and can provide a wide ensemble of climate change scenarios. 2) Precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the UYZR and ULR basins are expected to increase under the two scenarios, particularly under RCP8.5. 3) The total runoff also shows a moderately upward trend in two basins, both mainly due to increased precipitation. In the UYZR basin, fast runoff accounts for a larger proportion in total runoff than slow runoff, while in ULR, both almost play the same role in total runoff. Furthermore, snowmelt-induced runoff in both basins would be less and rainfall-induced runoff will probably become more important in the future.

RevDate: 2019-02-14

Zhou Y, Jiang J, Ye B, et al (2019)

Addressing climate change through a market mechanism: a comparative study of the pilot emission trading schemes in China.

Environmental geochemistry and health pii:10.1007/s10653-019-00258-x [Epub ahead of print].

The questions of how to mitigate climate change and its impact on human health are currently high on the Chinese agenda for future development. The emission trading scheme (ETS) has become one of China's most important instruments to address climate change through a market mechanism. In the wake of the evolution from regional pilots to a nationwide scheme, it is inevitable to be confronted with tremendous political-economic-institutional challenges. To facilitate a smooth start-up of the upcoming nationwide ETS, this study provides a systematic overview of seven ETS pilots, involving the detailed comparison of ETS design and the in-depth evaluation of market performance, both internal and external performance, based on trading data. Then, the achievements and deficiencies of seven ETS pilots are summarized, several challenges for the current time are discussed, and policy proposals for China's national-level ETS are navigated further coupled with international experience. This study finds that China's ETS pilots, from the short-term perspective, are successful, especially in the reinforcement of China's capacity to develop a market-based scheme in an economy that still cherishes many non-market endowments. However, deficiencies lie in both the internal and external market performance, such as the carbon price lacking a signal function, insufficient incentives for compliance, too low market liquidity, and much too high market fragmentation. Moreover, the retrospective examination of China's ETS pilots suggests that a nationwide ETS should at least be based on an extension of the cap duration from single year to several years, uniform rules on monitoring/reporting/verification and allowance allocation, and the improvement of institutional foundation.

RevDate: 2019-02-14

Watanabe TK, Watanabe T, Yamazaki A, et al (2019)

Oman coral δ18O seawater record suggests that Western Indian Ocean upwelling uncouples from the Indian Ocean Dipole during the global-warming hiatus.

Scientific reports, 9(1):1887 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-38429-y.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interannual mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean that has intensified with 20th century global-warming. However, instrumental data shows a global-warming hiatus between the late-1990s and 2015. It is presently not clear how the global-warming hiatus affects modes of climate variability such as the IOD, and their basin-wide ocean-atmosphere teleconnections. Here, we present a 26-year long, biweekly record of Sr/Ca and δ18O from a Porites coral drilled in the Gulf of Oman. Sea surface temperature (SSTanom) is calculated from Sr/Ca ratios, and seawater δ18O (δ18Osw-anom) is estimated by subtracting the temperature component from coral δ18O. Our δ18Osw-anom record reveals a significant regime shift in 1999, towards lower mean δ18Osw values, reflecting intensified upwelling in the western Indian Ocean. Prior to the 1999 regime shift, our SSTanom and δ18Osw-anom show a clear IOD signature, with higher values in the summer of positive-IOD years due to weakened upwelling. The IOD signature in SSTanom and δ18Osw-anom disappears with the overall intensification of upwelling after the 1999 regime shift. The inferred increase in upwelling is likely driven by an intensified Walker circulation during the global-warming hiatus. Upwelling in the Western Indian Ocean uncouples from the IOD.

RevDate: 2019-02-14

Nakabayashi A, Yamakita T, Nakamura T, et al (2019)

The potential role of temperate Japanese regions as refugia for the coral Acropora hyacinthus in the face of climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):1892 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-38333-5.

As corals in tropical regions are threatened by increasing water temperatures, poleward range expansion of reef-building corals has been observed, and temperate regions are expected to serve as refugia in the face of climate change. To elucidate the important indicators of the sustainability of coral populations, we examined the genetic diversity and connectivity of the common reef-building coral Acropora hyacinthus along the Kuroshio Current, including recently expanded (<50 years) populations. Among the three cryptic lineages found, only one was distributed in temperate regions, which could indicate the presence of Kuroshio-associated larval dispersal barriers between temperate and subtropical regions, as shown by oceanographic simulations as well as differences in environmental factors. The level of genetic diversity gradually decreased towards the edge of the species distribution. This study provides an example of the reduced genetic diversity in recently expanded marginal populations, thus indicating the possible vulnerability of these populations to environmental changes. This finding underpins the importance of assessing the genetic diversity of newly colonized populations associated with climate change for conservation purposes. In addition, this study highlights the importance of pre-existing temperate regions as coral refugia, which has been rather underappreciated in local coastal management.

RevDate: 2019-02-14

Chen T, Bao A, Jiapaer G, et al (2019)

Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on arid and semiarid grasslands in Central Asia during 1982-2015.

The Science of the total environment, 653:1311-1325.

In recent decades, climate change and human activities have severely affected grasslands in Central Asia. Grassland regulation and sustainability in this region require an accurate assessment of the effects of these two factors on grasslands. Based on the abrupt change analysis, linear regression analysis and net primary productivity (NPP), the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland ecosystems in Central Asia during 1982-2015 were studied. Further, the potential NPP (NPPP) was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and the human-induced NPP (NPPH), which was the difference between NPPP and actual NPP, were used to differentiate the effects of climate change and human activities on the grassland ecosystems, respectively. The grassland NPP showed a slight upward trend during 1982-2015, while two obvious decreasing periods were found before and after the mutation year 1999. Additionally, the main driving forces of the grassland NPP variation for the two periods were different. During 1982-1999, climate change was the main factor controlling grassland NPP increase or decrease, and 84.7% of grasslands experienced NPP reduction, while the regions experiencing an increase represented only 15.3% of the total area. During 1999-2015, the areas of increasing and decreasing grassland NPP represented 41.6% and 58.4% of the total area, respectively. After 1999, human activities became the main driving force of the NPP reduction, whereas climate change facilitated grassland restoration. The five Central Asian countries showed widely divergent relative impacts of climate change and human activities on NPP changes. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, anthropogenic decreases in grassland NPP intensified during 1982-2015, while the negative anthropogenic effects on grassland NPP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan moderated. Further analysis identified precipitation as the major climatic factor affecting grassland variation in most areas of Central Asia and overgrazing as the main form of human activity accelerating grassland degradation. This study improves the understanding of the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on grasslands in Central Asia.

RevDate: 2019-02-14

Flores JM, Gil-Lebrero S, Gámiz V, et al (2019)

Effect of the climate change on honey bee colonies in a temperate Mediterranean zone assessed through remote hive weight monitoring system in conjunction with exhaustive colonies assessment.

The Science of the total environment, 653:1111-1119.

Honey bee plays the leading role in the pollination of many wild plants and crops, but it currently faces serious threats. Climate change is pointed out as one of the causes of the colony collapse disorder. Understanding the response of bees to the new climate change scenario is essential to face this challenge. Especially in the most sensitive bioclimatic zones, such as the Mediterranean areas. In this work, we remotely monitored the weight of the hives with an electronic device during a flowering period in the beekeeping seasons of 2016 and 2017, marked by extreme episodes of drought and high temperatures. We assessed bee colonies at the beginning, middle and at the end of the flowering as well, considering the adult bee population, bee brood, and pollen and honey reserves. The results showed that the flowering was reduced in three weeks in 2017 in comparison to 2016. In those years weight gain was 7.67 kg and 18.92 kg, respectively. The adverse conditions affected the evolution of the populations of bees and the reserves of honey and pollen in a meaningful way, increasing food stress for bees. It also affected the pollen spectrum and commercial characteristics of honey. Our results provide objective data about the effect of climate change on bees, but it also proved the relevant role of bees in the study of changes in the environment.

RevDate: 2019-02-13

Ho HC, Abbas S, Yang J, et al (2019)

Spatiotemporal Prediction of Increasing Winter Perceived Temperature across a Sub-Tropical City for Sustainable Planning and Climate Change Mitigation.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(3): pii:ijerph16030497.

Climate variability has been documented as being key to influencing human wellbeing across cities as it is linked to mortality and illness due to changes in the perceived weather cycle. Many studies have investigated the impact of summer temperature on human health and have proposed mitigation strategies for summer heat waves. However, sub-tropical cities are still experiencing winter temperature variations. Increasing winter perceived temperature through the decades may soon affect city wellbeing, due to a larger temperature change between normal winter days and extreme cold events, which may cause higher health risk due to lack of adaptation and self-preparedness. Therefore, winter perceived temperature should also be considered and integrated in urban sustainable planning. This study has integrated the increasing winter perceived temperature as a factor for developing spatiotemporal protocols for mitigating the adverse impact of climate change. Land surface temperature (LST) derived from satellite images and building data extracted from aerial photographs were used to simulate the adjusted wind chill equivalent temperature (AWCET) particularly for sub-tropical scenarios between 1990 and 2010 of the Kowloon Peninsula, Hong Kong. Compared with perceived temperature based on the representative station located at the headquarters of the Hong Kong Observatory, the temperature of half the study area in the Kowloon Peninsula has raised by 1.5 °C. The areas with less green space and less public open space in 2010 show higher relative temperatures. Socioeconomically deprived areas (e.g., areas with lower median monthly income) may suffer more from this scenario, but not all types of socioeconomic disparities are associated with poor sustainable planning. Based on our results and the "no-one left behind" guideline from the United Nations, climate change mitigation should be conducted by targeting socioeconomic neighborhoods more than just aging communities.

RevDate: 2019-02-12

Li G, Sun S, Han J, et al (2019)

Corrigendum to "Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015" [Sci. Total Environ. 660 (2019) 177-187].

RevDate: 2019-02-12

Ker Rault PA, Koundouri P, Akinsete E, et al (2019)

Down scaling of climate change scenarii to river basin level: A transdisciplinary methodology applied to Evrotas river basin, Greece.

The Science of the total environment, 660:1623-1632.

The Mediterranean region is anticipated to be (or, already is) one of the hot spots for climate change, where freshwater ecosystems are under threat from the effects of multiple stressors. Climate change is impacting natural resources and on the functioning of Ecosystem Services. The challenges about modelling climate change impact on water cycle in general and specifically on socio-economic dynamics of the society leads to an exponential amount of results that restrain interpretation and added value of forecasting at local level. One of the main challenges when dealing with climate change projections is the quantification of uncertainties. Modellers might have limited information or understanding from local river catchment management practices and from other disciplines with relevant insights on socio-economic and environmental complex relationship between biosphere and human based activities. Current General Circulation Models cannot fulfil the requirements of high spatial detail required for water management policy. This article reports an innovative transdisciplinary methodology to down scale Climate Change scenarii to river basin level with a special focus on the development of climate change narrative under SSP5-RCP8.5 combination called Myopic scenario and SSP1-RCP4.5 combination called Sustainable scenario. Local Stakeholder participative workshop in the Evrotas river basin provide perception of expected changes on water demand under to two developed scenario narratives.

RevDate: 2019-02-12

Grillakis MG (2019)

Increase in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for Europe under climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 660:1245-1255.

Droughts are among the costliest natural disasters. They affect wide regions and large numbers of people worldwide by tampering with water availability and agricultural production. In this research, soil moisture drought trends are assessed for Europe using the Soil Moisture Index (SMI) estimated on Joint UK Land Environment Simulator simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways, the RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. Results show that SMI drought conditions are expected to exacerbate in Europe with substantial differences among regions. Eastern Europe and Mediterranean regions are found to be the most affected. Spatially and temporally contiguous regions that exhibit SMI of Severe and Extreme index categories are identified as distinct drought events and are assessed for their characteristics. It is shown that even under strong emissions mitigation, these events are expected to increase in occurrence (22% to 123%), while their characteristics will become more unfavorable. Results indicate increase in their spatial extend (between 23% and 46%) and their duration (between 16% and 48%) depending on the period and the scenario. Additional analysis was performed for the exceptionally wide-area (over 106 km2) severe and extreme soil moisture drought events that are expected to drastically increase comparing to the recent past. Projections show that those events are expected to happen between 11 and 28 times more frequently depending on the scenario and the period with a 59% to 246% larger duration. These findings indicate that even applying strong mitigation measures, agricultural drought risk in Europe is expected to become higher than our present experience.

RevDate: 2019-02-12

Shao P, He H, Zhang X, et al (2018)

Responses of microbial residues to simulated climate change in a semiarid grassland.

The Science of the total environment, 644:1286-1291.

Microbial residues play important role in regulating soil carbon (C) turnover and stability, but the responses of microbial residues to climate change are neglected. In this study, a 5-year field experiment that simulated two climate change factors (precipitation and warming) was performed to examine microbial residue changes in a semiarid grassland, with water limitation. Both the contents of total amino sugars (a biomarker of microbial residues) and glucosamine (a biomarker of fungal residues) increased significantly with increased precipitation and decreased under warming, whereas neither increased precipitation nor warming influenced the content of muramic acid (a biomarker of bacterial residues). These findings clarified the role of fungal residues in determining the response of microbial residues to altered water availability and plant productivity induced by increased precipitation and elevated temperature. Interestingly, microbial residues had a much greater response to climate change than total soil C, implying that soil C composition and stability altered prior to soil C storage and simultaneously slowed down the change of soil C pool. Integrating microbial residues into current climate-C models is expected to enable the models to more accurately evaluate soil C responses to climate regimes in semiarid grasslands.

RevDate: 2019-02-11

Liu B, Gao X, Ma J, et al (2019)

Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China.

The Science of the total environment, 664:203-214 pii:S0048-9697(19)30344-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are two important mosquito species which transmit various infectious arbovirus diseases represented mainly by dengue fever. These two species of mosquito have a wide range of distribution and strong transfer capacity. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of vectors in wider geographical areas. Based on observed occurrence records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and high-resolution environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, a Maxent niche modeling approach was adopted to model the current and future distribution of both species in Mainland China. Our models provide predictions of suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios up to the 2050s. Both species were predicted to expand their niche range to varying degrees under future climate scenarios. Aedes aegypti was modeled to expand its habitat from Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hainan to Fujian, Jiangxi and Guizhou. Aedes albopictus was modeled to increase magnitude of distribution within its present range of northern, southwestern and southeastern coastal areas of Mainland China. Area and population exposed to mosquitoes are predicted to increase significantly. Environmental variables that have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes are also revealed by our model. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological studies and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.

RevDate: 2019-02-11

Tal A (2019)

Letter to the editor regarding Wine et al. (2019): Lake Kinneret and climate change.

RevDate: 2019-02-11

Vasconcellos MM, Colli GR, Weber JN, et al (2019)

Isolation by instability: Historical climate change shapes population structure and genomic divergence of treefrogs in the Neotropical Cerrado savanna.

Molecular ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Although the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on the diversification of the tropical biota was once dismissed, increasing evidence suggests that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations greatly affected the distribution and population divergence of tropical organisms. Landscape genomic analyses coupled with paleoclimatic distribution models provide a powerful way to understand the consequences of past climate changes on the present-day tropical biota. Using genome-wide SNP data and mitochondrial DNA, combined with projections of the species distribution across the late Quaternary until the present, we evaluate the effect of paleoclimatic shifts on the genetic structure and population differentiation of Hypsiboas lundii, a treefrog endemic to the South American Cerrado savanna. Our results show a recent and strong genetic divergence in H. lundii across the Cerrado landscape, yielding four genetic clusters that do not seem congruent with any current physical barrier to gene flow. Isolation by distance (IBD) explains some of the population differentiation, but we also find strong support for past climate changes promoting range shifts and structuring populations even in the presence of IBD. Post-Pleistocene population persistence in four main areas of historical stable climate in the Cerrado seems to have played a major role establishing the present genetic structure of this treefrog. This pattern is consistent with a model of reduced gene-flow in areas with high climatic instability promoting isolation of populations, defined here as "isolation by instability", highlighting the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations structuring populations in tropical savannas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-02-11

Brun P, Stamieszkin K, Visser AW, et al (2019)

Climate change has altered zooplankton-fuelled carbon export in the North Atlantic.

Nature ecology & evolution pii:10.1038/s41559-018-0780-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Marine plankton have been conspicuously affected by recent climate change, responding with profound spatial relocations and shifts in the timing of their seasonal occurrence. These changes directly affect the global carbon cycle by altering the transport of organic material from the surface ocean to depth, with consequences that remain poorly understood. We investigated how distributional and abundance changes of copepods, the dominant group of zooplankton, have affected biogenic carbon cycling. We used trait-based, mechanistic models to estimate the magnitude of carbon transported downward through sinking faecal pellets, daily vertical migration and seasonal hibernation at depth. From such estimates for over 200,000 community observations in the northern North Atlantic we found carbon flux increased along the northwestern boundary of the study area and decreased in the open northern North Atlantic during the past 55 years. These changes in export were primarily associated with changes in copepod biomass, driven by shifting distributions of abundant, large-bodied species. Our findings highlight how recent climate change has affected downward carbon transport by altering copepod community structure and demonstrate how carbon fluxes through plankton communities can be mechanistically implemented in next-generation biogeochemical models with size-structured representations of zooplankton communities.

RevDate: 2019-02-11

Rabaiotti D, R Woodroffe (2019)

Coping with climate change: limited behavioral responses to hot weather in a tropical carnivore.

Oecologia pii:10.1007/s00442-018-04329-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is widely accepted to be one of the greatest threats to species globally. Identifying the species most at risk is, therefore, a conservation priority. Some species have the capacity to adapt to rising temperatures through changing their phenology, behavior, distribution, or physiology, and, therefore, may be more likely to persist under rising temperatures. Recent findings suggest that the African wild dog Lycaon pictus may be impacted by climate change, since reproductive success is consistently lower when pup-rearing coincides with periods of high ambient temperature. We used GPS collars, combined with generalized linear mixed-effects models, to assess wild dogs' potential to adapt to high ambient temperatures through flexible timing of hunting behavior. On days with higher maximum temperatures, wild dogs showed lower daytime activity and greater nocturnal activity, although nocturnal activity did not fully balance the decrease in daytime activity, particularly during the denning period. Increases in nocturnal activity were confined mainly to moonlit nights, and were seldom observed when packs were raising pups. Our findings suggest that nocturnal activity helps this cursorial hunter to cope with high daytime temperatures. However, wild dogs appear not to use this coping strategy when they are raising pups, suggesting that their resource needs may not be fulfilled during the pup-rearing period. Given that moonlight availability-which will not change as the climate changes-constrains wild dogs' nocturnal activity, the species may have insufficient behavioral plasticity to mitigate increasing diurnal temperatures. These findings raise concerns about climate change impacts on this endangered species, and highlight the need for behavior to be considered when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-02-11

Ma X, Zhao C, Yan W, et al (2019)

Influences of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios on water use efficiency dynamics in the sandy areas of northern China.

The Science of the total environment, 664:161-174 pii:S0048-9697(19)30449-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in hydrometeorology study to reveal the links between carbon-water cycles in sandy ecosystems which are highly sensitive to climate change and can readily reflect the effects of it. In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify the regional impacts of 0.5 °C of additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Using the modified Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and Advection-Aridity (AA) models with global warming values of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above preindustrial levels from Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) datasets, we conducted a new set of climate simulations to assess the effects of climate on WUE (the ratio of net primary productivity (NPP) to actual evapotranspiration (ETa)) in different sandy land types (mobile sandy land, MSL; semimobile/semifixed sandy land, SMSF; and fixed sandy land, FSL) during the period of baseline (1986-2005) and future (2006-2100). The spatiotemporal patterns of ETa, NPP, and WUE mostly showed increasing trends; the value of WUE decreased (6.40%) only in MSL with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. Meteorological and vegetation factors determined the variations in WUE. With warming, only the correlation between precipitation and WUE decreased in the three sandy land types, and the leaf area index (LAI) increased with an additional 0.5 °C of warming. The desertification degree comprehensively reflects the linkages among the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), LAI and WUE. Simulation results indicated the sandy area extent could potential increase by 20 × 104 km2 per decade on average during 2016-2047 and that the increase could be gradual (2.60 × 104 km2 per decade) after 2050 (2050-2100). These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global mean temperature change to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and can help identify the risk of desertification with an additional 0.5 °C of warming.

RevDate: 2019-02-10

Berman A (2019)

An overview of heat stress relief with global warming in perspective.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-019-01680-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming seems more probable, whether as gradual warming or increased frequency of warmer episodes. The productivity of cattle in temperate countries will decline unless counteracting steps are adopted. The probability of pre-emptive breeding for maintaining temperate breed performance coupled with heat stress tolerance is too low to be adopted for counteracting warming. The expected warming will mostly involve temperature increases. These will indirectly affect radiant heat gain in animals owing to reduced radiant heat dissipation from the body by convective heat loss, which results in an increased sensitivity to incoming radiant heat at higher air temperatures. These necessitate an emphasis on increasing convective heat loss by structure design and forced air flow by fans. Convective heat loss diminishes with increasing air temperatures. Evaporative heat loss remains the alternative. Evaporative cooling of the ambient requires partial enclosing of the space surrounding the animals and is limited by the humidity in ambient air. An alternative was developed of coupling forced ventilation with wetting of animal surface. The exchange of ambient air flowing on animal surface makes the evaporation practically independent of air humidity and the loss of heat from animal surface practically independent of the surface to air temperature gradient. The coupling of forced ventilation with wetting combination may be attained in various parts of the dairy farm, the holding area of the milking parlour, the feeding trip and the resting area. Each of these requires differing structural and technological adaptations. Climate and farming systems vary between locations which require specific solutions.

RevDate: 2019-02-10

Balasubramanyam V, Wilhelm Stanis S, Morgan M, et al (2019)

Climate Change Communication in the Midwestern United States: Perceptions of State Park Interpreters.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01142-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Parks and protected areas can be ideal settings for climate change communication since many visitors have an affinity for natural and cultural settings, and an interest in resource protection. However, climate-based education efforts in the Midwestern United States may need a slightly different approach since this region lacks obvious indicators, such as sea level rise and melting glaciers. Interpretation, an informal communication process designed to transmit scientific information to visitors in leisure-based settings, could be a useful strategy for engaging visitors in climate change discussions. Few studies have assessed perceptions of interpreters on this topic, much less, their willingness to communicate such information. To address this issue, a mixed methods approach (surveys, interviews, photovoice) was used to examine interpreters' perceptions of climate change and its impacts in Missouri State Park and Historic Sites. Although nearly 70% of interpreters were either alarmed or concerned about climate change, many of them were unsure about its causation. Interpreters report observing impacts such as flooding, earlier plant blooming, high temperatures, extreme weather, and invasive species, but were uncertain about attributing these impacts to climate change. Interpreters did not believe that visitors would be responsive to climate-based education per se but thought the topic could be addressed in pre-existing programs and activities. Rather than discussing complex science with visitors, interpreters felt more comfortable with conveying the significance of resources at their sites. Implications from this study include acknowledging multiple viewpoints, framing strategic messages, and developing place-based educational materials.

RevDate: 2019-02-09

Mukul SA, Alamgir M, Sohel MSI, et al (2019)

Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

The Science of the total environment, 663:830-840 pii:S0048-9697(19)30431-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world's largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents among the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

RevDate: 2019-02-09

Gitea MA, Gitea D, Tit DM, et al (2019)

Orchard management under the effects of climate change: implications for apple, plum, and almond growing.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-04214-1 [Epub ahead of print].

The authors analyzed certain species and varieties of fruit tree in which applied crop technology is used and also undergoes the effects of climate change. The aim is to extend productive crop varieties, resistant to disease and pests, in order to obtain superior yields. The research was conducted in orchards located in northwestern Romania (on 8.59 ha), intensively cultivated with apple, plum, and almond species. The blooming period of the species and fruit production was studied in 2009, the first year of the farm's commercial production, and then compared to figures from 2016 to see the changes that occurred. Climatic conditions were studied throughout the period of existence of the farm (2002-2016). To determine the influence of the climatic factor on the blooming and production periods, respectively, every year is considered having pre-blooming, blooming, and ripening periods. It was found that climate change influences the annual biological cycle of the trees: the vegetative rest period of the trees shortens, the tree vegetation begins earlier in the spring, and the blooming period is advanced by as much as 10 days compared to normal cultivated varieties. All these factors have direct repercussions on the quantity of production.

RevDate: 2019-02-09

Fond G, Masson M, Lançon C, et al (2019)

[Psychiatry and global warming].

L'Encephale, 45(1):1-2.

RevDate: 2019-02-07

Liao X, Xu W, Zhang J, et al (2019)

Global exposure to rainstorms and the contribution rates of climate change and population change.

The Science of the total environment, 663:644-653 pii:S0048-9697(19)30333-X [Epub ahead of print].

Quantifying global population exposure to rainstorms is a key component of population risk assessments for rainstorms and induced floods. Based on daily precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP dataset, rainfall from rainstorms is first calculated by a multi-model ensemble method for four periods from 1986 to 2100. Combined with population data from the SSP2 scenario, the global population exposure to rainstorms is then calculated and analyzed. Finally, the contribution rates of climate change effect, population change effect, and joint change effect on exposure change are quantitatively assessed. The results showed that (1) Population exposure to rainstorms shows a linear upward trend from base period to the late 21st century period in most regions, and the mid-21st century period compared with base period has the fastest rate of increase. (2) The spatial patterns of population exposure to rainstorms are very similar for the four periods and the areas with high exposure are mainly distributed in Asia, population exposure of Africa is gradually increasing. The countries with high exposure show little volatility, especially the top eight countries. (3) The change in total exposure is mainly due to population change. Based on the composition of the total exposure change for each country, the number of countries whose climate change effect is greater than that of population change is gradually increasing, and this number reaches more than a quarter of the total when the late 21st century period is compared with the mid-21st century period.

RevDate: 2019-02-07

Shahvari N, Khalilian S, Mosavi SH, et al (2019)

Assessing climate change impacts on water resources and crop yield: a case study of Varamin plain basin, Iran.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(3):134 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7266-x.

This research evaluated climate change impacts on water resources using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) models under representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 6, RCP 8.5). First, drought intensity was calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the period 1987-2016. Then, the coefficients of precipitation as well as minimum and maximum temperature changes were simulated as SWAT model inputs. The results revealed that temperature will rise in future periods and the precipitation rate will be changed consequently. Then, changes in runoff during periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 were simulated by introducing downscaled results to SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated by SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedures (SWAT-CUP). Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients (0.57 and 0.54) and R2 determination coefficients (0.65 and 0.63) were obtained for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results showed that runoff will rise in fall and spring while it will drop in winter and summer throughout future periods under all three scenarios. Such seasonal shifts in runoff levels result from climate change consequences in the forms of temperature rise, snowmelt, altered precipitation pattern, etc. Future-period evapotranspiration will rise under all three scenarios with a maximum increase in the period 2070-2100 under RCP 8.5 scenario. Additionally, rainfed crop yields will decline without considerable changes in irrigated and horticultural crop yields.

RevDate: 2019-02-07

Campbell-Lendrum D, A Prüss-Ustün (2019)

Climate change, air pollution and noncommunicable diseases.

Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 97(2):160-161.

RevDate: 2019-02-07

Nowogrodzki A (2019)

How climate change might affect tea.

Nature, 566(7742):S10-S11.

RevDate: 2019-02-06

Le PVV, Kumar P, Ruiz MO, et al (2019)

Predicting the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on malaria in coastal Kenya.

PloS one, 14(2):e0211258 pii:PONE-D-18-03038.

BACKGROUND: The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the combined, i.e. direct and indirect, impacts of climate change on the dynamics of malaria through modifications in: (i) the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium induced by air temperature increase, and (ii) the life cycle of Anopheles vector triggered by changes in natural breeding habitat arising from the altered moisture dynamics resulting from acclimation responses of vegetation under climate change. The study is performed for a rural region in Kilifi county, Kenya.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use a stochastic lattice-based malaria (SLIM) model to make predictions of changes in Anopheles vector abundance, the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites, and thus malaria transmission under projected climate change in the study region. SLIM incorporates a nonlinear temperature-dependence of malaria parasite development to estimate the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium. It is also linked with a spatially distributed eco-hydrologic modeling framework to capture the impacts of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, which served as a key determinant for the formation and persistence of mosquito larval habitats on the land surface. Malaria incidence data collected from 2008 to 2013 is used for SLIM model validation. Projections of climate change and human population for the region are used to run the models for prediction scenarios. Under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) only, modeled results reveal wetter soil moisture in the root zone due to the suppression of transpiration from vegetation acclimation, which increases the abundance of Anopheles vectors and the risk of malaria. When air temperature increases are also considered along with elevated [CO2], the life cycle of Anopheles vector and the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium parasites are shortened nonlinearly. However, the reduction of soil moisture resulting from higher evapotranspiration due to air temperature increase also reduces the larval habitats of the vector. Our findings show the complicated role of vegetation acclimation under elevated [CO2] on malaria dynamics and indicate an indirect but ignored impact of air temperature increase on malaria transmission through reduction in larval habitats and vector density.

CONCLUSIONS: Vegetation acclimation triggered by elevated [CO2] under climate change increases the risk of malaria. In addition, air temperature increase under climate change has opposing effects on mosquito larval habitats and the life cycles of both Anopheles vectors and Plasmodium parasites. The indirect impacts of temperature change on soil moisture dynamics are significant and should be weighed together with the direct effects of temperature change on the life cycles of mosquitoes and parasites for future malaria prediction and control.

RevDate: 2019-02-06

Pan Y, Opgenhaffen M, B Van Gorp (2019)

Negotiating climate change: A frame analysis of COP21 in British, American, and Chinese news media.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

Climate negotiations have increasingly resonated with global governance and world power relations. However, media studies of climate change have paid relatively less attention to media frames of the problem solving. This study addresses this issue by examining the media coverage of COP21 from three countries that have considerable influence on climate politics: the United Kingdom, the United States, and China. By applying an inductive frame analysis, the study identified 10 media frames embedded in the discussions on climate negotiations. A deductive analysis further assessed the prevalence of these frames. The findings suggest that the frames were significantly influenced by the values of the established and emerging powers in the international policy area. The British and American media upheld the underlying norms that have long underpinned the existing Western-led order, while Chinese media coverage manifested a rising power in need of world recognition.

RevDate: 2019-02-05

Wellenius GA, PE Sheffield (2019)

The US Government Just Published a New Report Detailing the Impacts of Climate Change on Americans: Does it Matter?.

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 30(2):163-165.

RevDate: 2019-02-05

Liang P, Wang X, Sun H, et al (2019)

Forest type and height are important in shaping the altitudinal change of radial growth response to climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):1336 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-37823-w.

Tree radial growth is widely found to respond differently to climate change across altitudinal gradients, but the relative roles of biotic factors (e.g. forest type, height and density) vs. climate gradient remain unclear. We sampled tree rings from 15 plots along a large altitudinal gradient in northeast China, and examined how climate gradient, forest type, height, tree size and density affect: (1) temporal growth variability [mean sensitivity (MS) and standard deviation (SD) of the chronologies], and (2) the relationship of ring width indices (RWI) with historical climate. We used BIC based model selection and variable importance to explore the major drivers of their altitudinal patterns. The results showed that: both growth variability and RWI-climate relationships changed significantly with altitude. Forest height was the most important predictor for altitudinal changes of MS and SD. For RWI-climate relationships, forest type was more important than climate gradient, while height and stem density were weak but necessary predictors. We showed that the altitudinal difference in growth response to climate change cannot be explained by climate gradient alone, and highlight the necessity to examine the influence of biotic factors (which covary with climate across geographic gradient) to better understand forest response to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-02-05

Dutkiewicz S, Hickman AE, Jahn O, et al (2019)

Ocean colour signature of climate change.

Nature communications, 10(1):578 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-08457-x.

Monitoring changes in marine phytoplankton is important as they form the foundation of the marine food web and are crucial in the carbon cycle. Often Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is used to track changes in phytoplankton, since there are global, regular satellite-derived estimates. However, satellite sensors do not measure Chl-a directly. Instead, Chl-a is estimated from remote sensing reflectance (RRS): the ratio of upwelling radiance to the downwelling irradiance at the ocean's surface. Using a model, we show that RRS in the blue-green spectrum is likely to have a stronger and earlier climate-change-driven signal than Chl-a. This is because RRS has lower natural variability and integrates not only changes to in-water Chl-a, but also alterations in other optically important constituents. Phytoplankton community structure, which strongly affects ocean optics, is likely to show one of the clearest and most rapid signatures of changes to the base of the marine ecosystem.

RevDate: 2019-02-04

Levy G, Vignudelli S, J Gower (2018)

Enabling earth observations in support of global, coastal, ocean, and climate change research and monitoring.

International journal of remote sensing, 39(13):4287-4292.

RevDate: 2019-02-03

Frauendorf TC, MacKenzie RA, Tingley RW, et al (2019)

Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space-for-time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability of these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well-constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and b) if using a high temporal (monthly, 4 streams) or a high spatial (annual, 8 streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space-for-time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10-40 fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35-fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability of flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well-constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-02-02

Salas RN (2019)

Climate Change: A Review of a Public Health Opportunity for the Northeast.

Rhode Island medical journal (2013), 102(1):42-45.

[Full article available at].

RevDate: 2019-02-01

Díaz FP, Latorre C, Carrasco-Puga G, et al (2019)

Multiscale climate change impacts on plant diversity in the Atacama Desert.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Comprehending ecological dynamics requires not only knowledge of modern communities but also detailed reconstructions of ecosystem history. Ancient DNA (aDNA) metabarcoding allows biodiversity responses to major climatic change to be explored at different spatial and temporal scales. We extracted aDNA preserved in fossil rodent middens to reconstruct late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in the hyperarid Atacama Desert. By comparing our paleo-informed millennial record with contemporary observations of interannual variations in diversity, we show local plant communities behave differentially at different timescales. In the inter-annual (years to decades) time frame, only annual herbaceous expand and contract their distributional ranges (emerging from persistent seed banks) in response to precipitation, whereas perennials distribution appear to be extraordinarily resilient. In contrast, at longer time scales (thousands of years) many perennial species were displaced up to 1,000 m downslope during pluvial events. Given ongoing and future natural and anthropogenically-induced climate change, our results not only provide baselines for vegetation in the Atacama Desert, but also help to inform how these and other high mountain plant communities may respond to fluctuations of climate in the future. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-02-03

Amélineau F, Grémillet D, Harding AMA, et al (2019)

Arctic climate change and pollution impact little auk foraging and fitness across a decade.

Scientific reports, 9(1):1014 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-38042-z.

Ongoing global changes apply drastic environmental forcing onto Arctic marine ecosystems, particularly through ocean warming, sea-ice shrinkage and enhanced pollution. To test impacts on arctic marine ecological functioning, we used a 12-year integrative study of little auks (Alle alle), the most abundant seabird in the Atlantic Arctic. We monitored the foraging ecology, reproduction, survival and body condition of breeding birds, and we tested linkages between these biological variables and a set of environmental parameters including sea-ice concentration (SIC) and mercury contamination. Little auks showed substantial plasticity in response to SIC, with deeper and longer dives but less time spent underwater and more time flying when SIC decreased. Their diet also contained less lipid-rich ice-associated prey when SIC decreased. Further, in contrast to former studies conducted at the annual scale, little auk fitness proxies were impacted by environmental changes: Adult body condition and chick growth rate were negatively linked to SIC and mercury contamination. However, no trend was found for adult survival despite high inter-annual variability. Our results suggest that potential benefits of milder climatic conditions in East Greenland may be offset by increasing pollution in the Arctic. Overall, our study stresses the importance of long-term studies integrating ecology and ecotoxicology.

RevDate: 2019-02-01

Raza A, Razzaq A, Mehmood SS, et al (2019)

Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 8(2): pii:plants8020034.

Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses, which have adverse effects on the agriculture of a region. The land and its agriculture are being affected by climate changes in different ways, e.g., variations in annual rainfall, average temperature, heat waves, modifications in weeds, pests or microbes, global change of atmospheric CO₂ or ozone level, and fluctuations in sea level. The threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. According to some predicted reports, agriculture is considered the most endangered activity adversely affected by climate changes. To date, food security and ecosystem resilience are the most concerning subjects worldwide. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation, before it might affect global crop production drastically. In this review paper, we summarize the causes of climate change, stresses produced due to climate change, impacts on crops, modern breeding technologies, and biotechnological strategies to cope with climate change, in order to develop climate resilient crops. Revolutions in genetic engineering techniques can also aid in overcoming food security issues against extreme environmental conditions, by producing transgenic plants.

RevDate: 2019-02-05

Ahmadalipour A, Moradkhani H, Castelletti A, et al (2019)

Future drought risk in Africa: Integrating vulnerability, climate change, and population growth.

The Science of the total environment, 662:672-686 pii:S0048-9697(19)30321-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Drought risk refers to the potential losses from hazard imposed by a drought event, and it is generally characterized as a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. In this study, drought risk is assessed at a national level across Africa, and the impacts of climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities on drought risk are investigated. A rigorous framework is implemented to quantify drought vulnerability considering various sectors including economy, energy and infrastructure, health, land use, society, and water resources. Multi-model and multi-scenario analyses are employed to quantify drought hazard using an ensemble of 10 regional climate models and a multi-scalar drought index. Drought risk is then assessed in each country for 2 climate emission pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), 3 population scenarios, and 3 vulnerability scenarios during three future periods between 2010 and 2100. Drought risk ratio is quantified, and the role of each component (i.e. hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) is identified, and the associated uncertainties are also characterized. Results show that drought risk is expected to increase in future across Africa with varied rates for different models and scenarios. Although northern African countries indicate aggravating drought hazard, drought risk ratio is found to be highest in central African countries as a consequent of vulnerability and population rise in that region. Results indicate that if no climate change adaptation is implemented, unprecedented drought hazard and risk will occur decades earlier. In addition, controlling population growth is found to be imperative for mitigating drought risk in Africa (even more effective than climate change mitigation), as it improves socioeconomic vulnerability and reduces potential exposure to drought.

RevDate: 2019-02-03

Ganne-Carrié N (2018)

Alcohol-related liver disease: do weather and daylight level matter or is there a paradoxical good side of global warming?.

Translational gastroenterology and hepatology, 3:109 pii:tgh-03-2018.12.08.

RevDate: 2019-02-03

Soultan A, Wikelski M, K Safi (2019)

Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region.

Scientific reports, 9(1):955 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-37851-6.

For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category "Least Concern" to "Critically Endangered" or "Extinct" in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.

RevDate: 2019-01-31

Swinburn BA, Kraak VI, Allender S, et al (2019)

The Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change: The Lancet Commission report.

Lancet (London, England) pii:S0140-6736(18)32822-8 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-01-31

Liu T, Ren Z, Zhang Y, et al (2019)

Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(3): pii:ijerph16030376.

(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.

RevDate: 2019-01-30

W Burggren W (2019)

Inadequacy of Typical Physiological Experimental Protocols For Investigating Consequences of Stochastic Weather Events Emerging From Global Warming.

American journal of physiology. Regulatory, integrative and comparative physiology [Epub ahead of print].

Increasingly variable, extreme and non-predictable weather events are predicted to accompany climate change, and such weather events will especially affect temperate, terrestrial environments. Yet, typical protocols in comparative physiology that examine environmental change typically employ simple step-wise changes in the experimental stressor of interest (e.g. temperature, water availability, oxygen, nutrition). Such protocols fall short of mimicking actual natural environments, and may be inadequate for fully exploring the physiological effects of stochastic, extreme weather events. Indeed, numerous studies from the field of thermal biology, especially, indicate non-linear and sometimes counterintuitive findings associated with variable and fluctuating (but rarely truly stochastic) protocols for temperature change. This Perspective suggests that alternative experimental protocols should be employed that go beyond step-wise protocols and even beyond variable protocols employing circadian rhythms, for example, to those that actually embrace non-predictable elements. Such protocols, though admittedly more difficult to implement, are more likely to reveal the capabilities (and, importantly, the limitations) of animals experiencing weather, as distinct from climate. While some possible protocols involving stochasticity are described as examples to stimulate additional thought on experimental design, the overall goal of this Perspective is to encourage comparative physiologists to entertain incorporation of non-predictable experimental conditions as they design future experimental protocols.

RevDate: 2019-01-30

Bruno D, Belmar O, Maire A, et al (2019)

Structural and functional responses of invertebrate communities to climate change and flow regulation in alpine catchments.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding and predicting how biological communities respond to climate change is critical for assessing biodiversity vulnerability and guiding conservation efforts. Glacier- and snow-fed rivers are one of the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change, and can provide early warning of wider-scale changes. These rivers are frequently used for hydropower production but there is minimal understanding of how biological communities are influenced by climate change in a context of flow regulation. This study sheds light on this issue by disentangling structural (water temperature preference, taxonomic composition, alpha, beta and gamma diversities) and functional (functional traits, diversity, richness, evenness, dispersion and redundancy) effects of climate change in interaction with flow regulation in the Alps. For this, we compared environmental and aquatic invertebrate data collected in the 1970s and 2010s in regulated and unregulated alpine catchments. We hypothesized a replacement of cold-adapted species by warming-tolerant ones, high temporal and spatial turnover in taxa and trait composition, along with reduced taxonomic and functional diversities in consequence of climate change. We expected communities in regulated rivers to respond more drastically due to additive or synergistic effects between flow regulation and climate change. We found divergent structural but convergent functional responses between free-flowing and regulated catchments. Although cold-adapted taxa decreased in both of them, greater colonization and spread of thermophilic species was found in the free-flowing one, resulting in higher spatial and temporal turnover. Since the 1970's, taxonomic diversity increased in the free flowing but decreased in the regulated catchment due to biotic homogenization. Colonization by taxa with new functional strategies (i.e. multivoltine taxa with small body size, resistance forms, aerial dispersion and reproduction by clutches) increased functional diversity but decreased functional redundancy through time. These functional changes could jeopardize the ability of aquatic communities facing intensification of ongoing climate change or new anthropogenic disturbances. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-01-29

Mertenat A, Diener S, C Zurbrügg (2019)

Black Soldier Fly biowaste treatment - Assessment of global warming potential.

Waste management (New York, N.Y.), 84:173-181.

Cities of low and middle-income countries face severe challenges in managing the increasing amount of waste produced, especially the organic fraction. Black Soldier Fly (BSF) biowaste treatment is an attractive treatment option as it offers a solution for waste management while also providing a protein source to help alleviate the rising global demand for animal feed. However, to-date very little information is available on how this technology performs with regard to direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP). This paper presents a study that uses a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to assess the GWP of a BSF waste treatment facility in the case of Indonesia and compares it with respective values for an open windrow composting facility. Direct CH4 and N2O samples were extracted from BSF treatment units and analyzed by gas chromatography. Results show that direct CO2eq emissions are 47 times lower the emissions from composting. Regarding the overall GWP, the LCA shows that composting has double the GWP of BSF treatment facility based on the functional unit of 1 ton of biowaste (wet weight). The main GWP contribution from a BSF facility are from: (1) residue post-composting (69%) and (2) electricity needs and source (up to 55%). Fishmeal production substitution by BSF larvae meal can reduce significantly the GWP (up to 30%). Based on this study, we conclude that BSF biowaste treatment offers an environmentally relevant alternative with very low direct GHG emissions and potentially high GWP reduction. Further research should improve residue post-treatment.

RevDate: 2019-01-28

Macdiarmid JI, S Whybrow (2019)

Nutrition from a climate change perspective.

The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society pii:S0029665118002896 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is threatening future global food and nutrition security. Limiting the increase in global temperature to 1·5 °C set out in The Paris Agreement (2015) while achieving nutrient security means overhauling the current food system to create one that can deliver healthy and sustainable diets. To attain this, it is critical to understand the implications for nutrition of actions to mitigate climate change as well as the impacts of climate change on food production and the nutrient composition of foods. It is widely recognised that livestock production has a much greater environmental burden than crop production, and therefore advice is to reduce meat consumption. This has triggered concern in some sectors about a lack of protein in diets, which hence is driving efforts to find protein replacements. However, in most high- and middle-income countries, protein intakes far exceed dietary requirements and it would even if all meat were removed from diets. Reduction in micronutrients should be given more attention when reducing meat. Simply eating less meat does not guarantee healthier or more sustainable diets. Climate change will also affect the type, amount and nutrient quality of food that can be produced. Studies have shown that increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels can reduce the nutrient density of some staple crops, which is of particular concern in low-income countries. Nutrition from a climate change perspective means considering the potential consequences of any climate action on food and nutrition security. In this paper, we discuss these issues from an interdisciplinary perspective.

RevDate: 2019-01-28

Ettinger AK, Chuine I, Cook BI, et al (2019)

How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate?.

Ecology letters [Epub ahead of print].

To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs. unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6 ∘ C (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1 ∘ C (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2 ∘ C (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non-temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design, and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species' responses.

RevDate: 2019-01-31

Kriaučiūnienė J, Virbickas T, Šarauskienė D, et al (2019)

Fish assemblages under climate change in Lithuanian rivers.

The Science of the total environment, 661:563-574 pii:S0048-9697(19)30159-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Alterations of abiotic factors (e.g., river water temperature and discharge) will definitely affect the fundamental processes of aquatic ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of climate change on the structure of fish assemblages in fast-flowing rivers belonging to the catchment of the major Eastern European river, the Nemunas. Five catchments of semi-natural rivers were selected for the study. Projections of abiotic factors were developed for the near (2016-2035) and far future (2081-2100) periods, according to four RCP scenarios and three climate models using the HBV hydrological modelling tool. Fish metric projections were developed based on a multiple regression using spatial data. No significant changes in projections of abiotic and biotic variables are generally expected in the near future. In the far future period, the abiotic factors are projected to change significantly, i.e., river water temperature is going to increase by 4.0-5.1 °C, and river discharge is projected to decrease by 16.7-40.6%, according to RCP8.5. By the end of century, the relative abundance of stenothermal fish is projected to decline from 24 to 51% in the reference period to 0-20% under RCP8.5. Eurythermal fish should benefit from climate change, and their abundance is likely to increase from 16 to 38% in the reference period to 38-65% under RCP8.5. Future alterations of river water temperature will have significantly more influence on the abundance of the analysed fish assemblages than river discharge.

RevDate: 2019-01-25

Rinkevich B (2019)

Coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue mechanism to mitigate global climate change impacts.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and anthropogenic pressures inflict a wide range of profound damages on coral reef ecosystems, reshaping coral reef communities due to their physiological and ecological intolerance to the newly developing environmental conditions. Here I present coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue tool for accelerating adaptive responses to global climate change impacts. The 'evolutionary rescue' power is contingent on the premise that coral chimerism counters the erosion of genetic and phenotypic diversity. Further benefits are gained when flexible chimeric entities alter their somatic constituents following changes in environmental conditions, synergistically presenting the best-fitting combination of their genetic components to endure in a capricious environment, exhibiting always their environmentally-matched physiological characteristics. Chimerism should be considered as an integral part of the ecological engineering toolbox being developed for active reef restoration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-01-29

Newman G, Z Qiao (2018)

Climate Change Armor.

Cheng shi she ji (2015), 19(5):50-63.

Climate Change Armor is a collection of adaptive flood attenuation mechanisms for protecting newly designed communities from flood events and the eventual impacts of sea level rise. League City, TX is used as an application site. NOAA predicts that sea levels will increase and storm surge will become more frequent along the Texas coast. In the Gulf Coast, sea level projects to rise up to 629 feet by 2100. The Climate Change Armor Toolkit comprises both structural and non-structural mechanisms which are either engineered to block and control heavy floods or rely on natural systems and green infrastructure to attenuate flood waters from frequent storms or hazard flood events. With the application of the Armor Toolkit, 221,921 cubic feet of runoff can be captured, nearly 2,400 new residents are protected, over 3,000 jobs are created, $23 million in physical flood damage can be avoided, and approximately $1.3 billion can be generated in the life cycle benefits of the newly designed community by 2100.

RevDate: 2019-01-29

Li R (2019)

Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau, China.

Ecology and evolution, 9(1):427-436 pii:ECE34761.

Climate change-induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche-based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.

RevDate: 2019-01-25

Garofalo P, Ventrella D, Kersebaum KC, et al (2019)

Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models.

The Science of the total environment, 658:1186-1208.

The impact of climate change could undermine the future grain production as a consequence of increased temperature and drought condition or improve the crop performance owing to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Wheat water demand and yield are strictly related to climate conditions of the area where the plants are cropped. In this study, we assessed the future trends of grain yield and water consumption in two European regions, Germany (Continental region) and Italy (Mediterranean region) in the light of the multiple sources of uncertainty related to climate and yield forecasts. Four crop models were set up under combinations of two European climate regions, five Global Circulation Models and two Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways, 486 ppm and 540 ppm in 2050. Yield and water use were assessed under rainfed and irrigated regimes, and the water footprint of green water and total water was estimated. Our results indicated that projected yields were comparable (Mediterranean area) or even improved (+9%; Continental area) in rainfed conditions in comparison to the current trend; and water supply enhanced crop performance (+22% in Germany and +19% in Italy, as mean). Crop water consumption (both green and blue) remained stable in future projections but the water footprint was 5% lower on average in Italy and 23% in Germany when compared to the baseline. Despite the uncertainty in future predictions related to the factors analysed, our result indicated that current wheat production and its water footprint could become more favourable under climate change.

RevDate: 2019-01-25

Li W, Xu X, Yao J, et al (2019)

Combined effects of elevated carbon dioxide and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link: A multi-influence of climate change on freshwater planktonic communities.

The Science of the total environment, 658:1175-1185.

It is essential to understand the combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on phytoplankton-zooplankton link when attempting to predict climate change responses of freshwater ecosystems. Phytoplankton species differ in stoichiometric and fatty acids composition, and this may result in phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton at elevated CO2 and temperature. Beyond the isolated analysis of CO2 or temperature effect, few studies have assessed zooplankton growth under the phytoplankton-mediated effects of elevated CO2 and temperature. In this study, three algal species (green alga, diatom, cyanobacteria) were fed on zooplankton Daphnia magna, under the conditions of CO2 concentrations of ambient (390 ppm) and elevated (1000 ppm) levels and temperatures at 20, 25 and 30 °C. Elevated CO2 increased the algal biomass, while it reduced the phosphorus (P) and ω3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (ω3 PUFAs) to carbon (C) ratios. Elevated temperature decreased the P/C ratios in all algal cultures and ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the diatom and the cyanobacteria cultures. Phytoplankton-mediated effect of elevated CO2 reduced the growth of zooplankton fed on the green and the mixed three algae culture. The stimulation of zooplankton fed on the diatom and the cyanobacteria by elevated temperature can be offset by decreasing food P and ω3 PUFAs contents. The combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the growth of daphnids were mainly mediated by ω3 PUFAs/C ratios in the phytoplankton. Rising temperature as a combined direct and indirectly phytoplankton-mediated effect on zooplankton may be able to ameliorate the negative effects of elevated CO2. The results indicated that the combined effects of increased CO2 and temperature increased the fatty acid content of the green alga but not the other algae. This study highlighted that climate change with simultaneously increasing temperature and CO2 may entangle the carbon transfer in freshwater planktonic communities.

RevDate: 2019-02-05

He W, Lian J, Zhang J, et al (2019)

Impact of intra-annual runoff uniformity and global warming on the thermal regime of a large reservoir.

The Science of the total environment, 658:1085-1097.

Thermal stratification is common in reservoirs and greatly influences the aquatic environment. Changes in the uniformity of intra-annual runoff have been detected in several basins, but few studies have focused on the impacts that these changes have on thermal regimes. Using runoff data for Sanbanxi Reservoir, China, during 1950-2015, the long-term trends of intra-annual runoff uniformity were statistically analyzed and extrapolated for the 2050s and 2090s, and the relationship between these trends and the thermal regime of the reservoir were investigated. Moreover, the thermal regime was evaluated for future climate scenarios accounting for global warming. This study shows the following: 1) for South China, the concentration degree (Cd) for the distribution of intra-annual runoff in natural basins such as Sanbanxi Reservoir tended to be higher, but for rivers significantly impacted by human activities, Cd tended to be lower. 2) a higher Cd was associated with an increased reservoir temperature and released water temperature, and decreased thermal stability. For Sanbanxi Reservoir, a 10% increase in Cd corresponded to a change in annual average temperature, thermal stability, and released water temperature of 0.036 °C, -48.4 J m-2, and 0.153 °C, respectively. These changes were larger in summer than in other seasons; 3) global warming is predicted to increase reservoir temperature, released water temperature, and thermal stability, having a more significant influence on these parameters than intra-annual runoff uniformity; 4) future changes in thermal regimes will intensify oxygen stratification and hypolimnetic anoxia, promoting algal blooms, and delaying fish spawning. Effects of two methods aimed at controlling the thermal regime were also analyzed, including changing the operation level and intake elevation of the reservoir. This study investigated the response of the thermal regime of Sanbanxi Reservoir to climate change, and provides theoretical support for the management of water temperature and the reservoir's aquatic environment.

RevDate: 2019-01-25

Santillán D, Iglesias A, La Jeunesse I, et al (2019)

Vineyards in transition: A global assessment of the adaptation needs of grape producing regions under climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 657:839-852.

This paper suggests how climate change may transform vineyards. We consider changes in agro-climatic indicators derived from climatic variables as drivers for adaptation needs. We use two climate scenarios, GCM GFL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES, with 0.5° spatial resolution and daily time step forced by two emission scenarios, RCP2.6 and 6.0, to estimate the transition of potential vineyards in the major grape production world areas by the late 21st century. We present and discuss changes in three impact indicators - one drought indicator and two temperature ones - aimed at exploring the benefits of transition-based policies. The drought indicator provides insights to prepare adaptation for extreme events in probabilistic terms. The temperature indicators offer information on the transition towards suitable zones of production. Future projections suggest a lack of water to maintain current levels of production in all regions of the world. Furthermore, thermal suitability of grapevine may be greatly affected in China and the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, the possibility of quality wines is not altered within the regions with adequate suitability. Lastly, a portfolio of strategies to adapt to the future climate is presented.

RevDate: 2019-01-23

Carlson JM, Lehman BR, JL Thompson (2019)

Climate change images produce an attentional bias associated with pro-environmental disposition.

Cognitive processing pii:10.1007/s10339-019-00902-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Humans have developed mechanisms to prioritize certain sensory input(s). Emotionally salient stimuli automatically capture observers' attention at the cost of less salient information. This prioritized processing is called attentional bias. Images of climate change have been found to elicit emotional responses. Yet, to date, there is no research assessing the extent to which climate change-relevant images produce an attentional bias. In a sample of college students (N = 39), we found that (1) climate change-related images capture attention and that (2) this attentional bias is related to individual differences in environmental disposition. Thus, images of climate change are salient-attention grabbing-signals related to pro-environmental orientation.

RevDate: 2019-01-23

Mikovits C, Zollitsch W, Hörtenhuber SJ, et al (2019)

Impacts of global warming on confined livestock systems for growing-fattening pigs: simulation of heat stress for 1981 to 2017 in Central Europe.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-018-01655-0 [Epub ahead of print].

In the mid-latitudes, pigs and poultry are kept predominantly in confined livestock buildings with a mechanical ventilation system. In the last decades, global warming has already been a challenge which causes hat stress for animals in such systems. Heat stress inside livestock buildings was assessed by a simulation model for the indoor climate, which is driven by meteorological parameters. Besides the meteorological conditions, the thermal environment inside the building depends on the sensible and latent energy release of the animals, the thermal properties of the building and the ventilation system and its control unit. For a site in Austria in the north of the Alpine Ridge, which is representative for confined livestock buildings for growing-fattening pigs in Central Europe, meteorological data between 1981 and 2017 were used for the model calculations of heat stress measures. This business-as-usual simulation over these 37 years resulted in an increase of the mean relative annual heat stress parameters in the range between 0.9 and 6.4% per year since 1981. In order to minimise the negative economic impact as the consequence of this positive trend of heat stress, adaptation measures are needed. The calculations for growing-fattening pigs show that such a simulation model for the indoor climate is an appropriate tool to determine the level of heat stress of livestock inside confined livestock buildings.

RevDate: 2019-01-25

Sáenz-Romero C, Kremer A, Nagy L, et al (2019)

Common garden comparisons confirm inherited differences in sensitivity to climate change between forest tree species.

PeerJ, 7:e6213 pii:6213.

The natural distribution, habitat, growth and evolutionary history of tree species are strongly dependent on ecological and genetic processes in ecosystems subject to fluctuating climatic conditions, but there have been few experimental comparisons of sensitivity between species. We compared the responses of two broadleaved tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea) and two conifer tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies) to climatic transfers by fitting models containing the same climatic variables. We used published data from European provenance test networks to model the responses of individual populations nested within species. A mixed model approach was applied to develop a response function for tree height over climatic transfer distance, taking into account the climatic conditions at both the seed source and the test location. The two broadleaved species had flat climatic response curves, indicating high levels of plasticity in populations, facilitating adaptation to a broader range of environments, and conferring a high potential for resilience in the face of climatic change. By contrast, the two conifer species had response curves with more pronounced slopes, indicating a lower resilience to climate change. This finding may reflect stronger genetic clines in P. sylvestris and P. abies, which constrain their climate responses to narrower climatic ranges. The response functions had maxima that deviated from the expected maximum productivity in the climate of provenance towards cooler/moister climate conditions, which we interpreted as an adaptation lag. Unilateral, linear regression analyses following transfer to warmer and drier sites confirmed a decline in productivity, predictive of the likely impact of ongoing climate change on forest populations. The responses to mimicked climate change evaluated here are of considerable interest for forestry and ecology, supporting projections of expected performance based on "real-time" field data.

RevDate: 2019-01-25

Varsamis G, Papageorgiou AC, Merou T, et al (2018)

Adaptive Diversity of Beech Seedlings Under Climate Change Scenarios.

Frontiers in plant science, 9:1918.

The ability of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations to adapt to the ongoing climate change is especially important in the southern part of Europe, where environmental change is expected to be more intense. In this study, we tested the existing adaptive potential of eight beech populations from two provenances in N.E. Greece (Evros and Drama) that show differences in their environmental conditions and biogeographical background. Seedling survival, growth and leaf phenological traits were selected as adaptive traits and were measured under simulated controlled climate change conditions in a growth chamber. Seedling survival was also tested under current conditions in the field. In the growth chamber, simulated conditions of temperature and precipitation for the year 2050 were applied for 3 years, under two different irrigation schemes, where the same amount of water was distributed either frequently (once every week) or non-frequently (once in 20 days). The results showed that beech seedlings were generally able to survive under climate change conditions and showed adaptive differences among provenances and populations. Furthermore, changes in the duration of the growing season of seedlings were recorded in the growth chamber, allowing them to avoid environmental stress and high selection pressure. Differences were observed between populations and provenances in terms of temporal distribution patterns of precipitation and temperature, rather than the average annual or monthly values of these measures. Additionally, different adaptive strategies appeared among beech seedlings when the same amount of water was distributed differently within each month. This indicates that the physiological response mechanisms of beech individuals are very complex and depend on several interacting parameters. For this reason, the choice of beech provenances for translocation and use in afforestation or reforestation projects should consider the small scale ecotypic diversity of the species and view multiple environmental and climatic parameters in connection to each other.

RevDate: 2019-01-27

Montánchez I, Ogayar E, Plágaro AH, et al (2019)

Analysis of Vibrio harveyi adaptation in sea water microcosms at elevated temperature provides insights into the putative mechanisms of its persistence and spread in the time of global warming.

Scientific reports, 9(1):289 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-36483-0.

Discovering the means to control the increasing dissemination of pathogenic vibrios driven by recent climate change is challenged by the limited knowledge of the mechanisms in charge of Vibrio spp. persistence and spread in the time of global warming. To learn about physiological and gene expression patterns associated with the long-term persistence of V. harveyi at elevated temperatures, we studied adaptation of this marine bacterium in seawater microcosms at 30 °C which closely mimicked the upper limit of sea surface temperatures around the globe. We found that nearly 90% of cells lost their culturability and became partly damaged after two weeks, thus suggesting a negative impact of the combined action of elevated temperature and shortage of carbon on V. harveyi survival. Moreover, further gene expression analysis revealed that major adaptive mechanisms were poorly coordinated and apparently could not sustain cell fitness. On the other hand, elevated temperature and starvation promoted expression of many virulence genes, thus potentially reinforcing the pathogenicity of this organism. These findings suggest that the increase in disease outbreaks caused by V. harveyi under rising sea surface temperatures may not reflect higher cell fitness, but rather an increase in virulence enabling V. harveyi to escape from adverse environments to nutrient rich, host-pathogen associations.

RevDate: 2019-02-03

Paterson RRM (2019)

Ganoderma boninense Disease of Oil Palm to Significantly Reduce Production After 2050 in Sumatra if Projected Climate Change Occurs.

Microorganisms, 7(1): pii:microorganisms7010024.

Palm oil is a valuable crop. This relates to the high economic return from sales of the commodity, where Indonesia is the major producer in the world and the island of Sumatra is the most important region for palm oil production in the country. The island can be considered as a model for other oil palm growing regions in SE Asia. The area in Sumatra with a suitable climate for growing oil palm will decrease in size due to projected climate change as demonstrated specifically herein. The more unsuitable climate will lead to concomitant increases in basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense, as previously predicted, which is of major concern to sustainability in SE Asia. A novel approach is described herein, whereby (a) a determination of suitable climate for growing oil palm in Sumatra and (b) deductions to determine future BSR levels on the island were undertaken. The unsuitability of the climate for oil palm is predicted to increase dramatically after 2050 when BSR is predicted to increase to very high levels on most parts of the island. This is likely to make palm oil production unsustainable at some stage between 2050 and 2100. North Sumatra may be more sustainable than the other areas considered in Sumatra. These effects of projected climate change require amelioration before the high levels of BSR and the unsuitable climate for oil palm are realized.

RevDate: 2019-01-22

Friedrich MJ (2019)

Tracking Progress on Mitigating Health Effects of Climate Change.

JAMA, 321(3):238.

RevDate: 2019-01-22

Rudel TK, Meyfroidt P, Chazdon R, et al (2019)

Whither the forest transition? Climate change, policy responses, and redistributed forests in the twenty-first century.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-018-01143-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Forest transitions occur when net reforestation replaces net deforestation in places. Because forest transitions can increase biodiversity and augment carbon sequestration, they appeal to policymakers contending with the degrading effects of forest loss and climate change. What then can policymakers do to trigger forest transitions? The historical record over the last two centuries provides insights into the precipitating conditions. The early transitions often occurred passively, through the spontaneous regeneration of trees on abandoned agricultural lands. Later forest transitions occurred more frequently after large-scale crisis narratives emerged and spurred governments to take action, often by planting trees on degraded, sloped lands. To a greater degree than their predecessors, latecomer forest transitions exhibit centralized loci of power, leaders with clearly articulated goals, and rapid changes in forest cover. These historical shifts in forest transitions reflect our growing appreciation of their utility for countering droughts, floods, land degradation, and climate change.

RevDate: 2019-01-22

Launer J (2019)

Climate change: beyond denial and grief.

Postgraduate medical journal pii:postgradmedj-2019-136407 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-01-31

Chen CC, Wang YR, Guo YL, et al (2019)

Short-term prediction of extremely hot days in summer due to climate change and ENSO and related attributable mortality.

The Science of the total environment, 661:10-17 pii:S0048-9697(19)30185-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Summer days with extremely hot temperatures in Taiwan have been increasing for the past few decades, and this continuing trend is expected to worsen heat-related mortality. To mitigate the corresponding health impacts, in this study, we developed a statistical state-space model to predict the number of extremely hot days in June-September for the next year. Based on historical data from 1951 to 2017, we estimated the climate change trend after adjusting for the nonlinear lagged effect of the Niño 3.4 index. We then developed a predictive state-space model using these two primary factors and adjusting for residual autocorrelations. Validation results comparing the extremely hot days observed over 2015-2017 with predictions showed that 86% of the average prediction errors were within 4 days of the observations. To assess the health impacts, we applied the model to the projection of heat-attributable mortality (AM) in 2018 by adopting a comparative risk assessment (CRA) approach with the reference period of 2001-2010. The results showed that the Taipei metropolitan area in northern Taiwan is the most affected region with AM of 1501 deaths from all-causes, followed by Taichung in central Taiwan with 490 deaths. The prediction model and the CRA projection provide both a tool and guidance for public health administrators to address the imminent threat posed by climate change.

RevDate: 2019-01-30

Pardo JD, Small BJ, Milner AR, et al (2019)

Carboniferous-Permian climate change constrained early land vertebrate radiations.

Nature ecology & evolution, 3(2):200-206.

The Carboniferous-Permian transition (CPT) was Earth's last pre-Quaternary icehouse-greenhouse transition, recording major shifts in late Palaeozoic climate regimes and increased continental seasonality over approximately 40 Myr. Its parallels to Quaternary climate change have inspired recent investigations into the impacts of purported rainforest collapse on palaeotropical vertebrate diversity, but little is known about how the protracted spatial dynamics of this transition impacted the emergence of modern tetrapod lineages. Here, we apply ecological ordinance analyses on a dataset of 286 CPT fossil vertebrate localities binned across four physiographic regions forming a palaeoequatorial transect. Our results clarify the spatiotemporal expansion of land-living vertebrates, demonstrating that the reduction of tropical wetlands accommodated emerging dryland-adapted amniote faunas from a western Pangaean epicentre. We call this west-east lag the 'Vaughn-Olson model': CPT climatic transitions were regionally diachronous with delayed proliferation of amniote-dominated dryland assemblages in the east. By combining our ecological analyses with a phylogenetic approach, we demonstrate that this pattern also applies to some co-occurring total-group amphibians, suggesting that there was pervasive selection for such dryland adaptations across the crown tetrapod tree, in contrast with stem tetrapods and 'fishes'.

RevDate: 2019-01-23

Göpfert C, Wamsler C, W Lang (2019)

A framework for the joint institutionalization of climate change mitigation and adaptation in city administrations.

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 24(1):1-21.

Cities are key actors in reducing both the causes of climate change (mitigation) and its impact (adaptation), and many have developed separate mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures. However, in order to maximize outcomes, both scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrated and synergetic approaches. Unfortunately, related research remains scarce and fragmented, and there is a lack of systematic investigation into the necessary institutional conditions and processes. Against this background, this paper develops a framework to assess and support the joint institutionalization of climate adaptation and mitigation-here called adaptigation-in city administrations. This pioneering framework draws upon four key features of bureaucracies: organizational structure, visions and goals, actors, and technology and tools. Illustrated by pilot applications to the cities of Würzburg (Germany) and Mwanza (Tanzania), the framework provides a robust basis for future research, policy recommendations, and the development of context-specific guidelines for national and local decision-makers and officials. It highlights the importance of (i) clearly defined procedures for the implementation of adaptigation into urban planning processes (e.g., with the active involvement of stakeholders in the form of working groups or roundtable discussions), (ii) locally relevant goals and visions, established in collaboration with stakeholders, and (iii) the creation of mitigation and adaptation structures that are supported by the appropriate level of human resources, both within and outside city administrations. In this context, global, supranational, and national institutions play an important role in supporting institutionalization by providing targeted funding and promoting adaptigation, which requires the development of integrated goals, visions, and legislation.

RevDate: 2019-01-26

Barreras H, Kelly EA, Kumar N, et al (2019)

Assessment of local and regional strategies to control bacteria levels at beaches with consideration of impacts from climate change.

Marine pollution bulletin, 138:249-259.

The objective of this study was to evaluate relationships between local factors (beach geomorphology and management) and regional factors (infrastructure improvements and temperature changes) against levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at recreational beaches. Data were evaluated for 17 beaches located in Monroe County, Florida (Florida Keys), USA, including an assessment of sanitary infrastructure improvements using equivalent dwelling unit (EDU) connections. Results show that elevated FIB levels were associated with beach geomorphologies characterized by impeded flow and by beaches with lax management policies. The decrease in EDUs not connected coincided with a decrease in the fraction of days when bacteria levels were out of compliance. Multivariate factor analysis also identified beach management practices (presence of homeless and concession stands) as being associated with elevated FIB. Overall, results suggest that communities can utilize beach management strategies and infrastructure improvements to overcome the negative water quality impacts anticipated with climate change.

RevDate: 2019-01-18

Rodríguez Mega E (2019)

Wild coffee species threatened by climate change and deforestation.

RevDate: 2019-01-18

Jean K, C Wymant (2019)

Airborne in the era of climate change.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 363(6424):240.

RevDate: 2019-02-04

Prior JH, Connon IL, McIntyre E, et al (2018)

Built environment interventions for human and planetary health: integrating health in climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Public health research & practice, 28(4): pii:2841831.

OBJECTIVES: Human-generated climate change is causing adverse health effects through multiple direct pathways (e.g. heatwaves, sea-level rise, storm frequency and intensity) and indirect pathways (e.g. food and water insecurity, social instability). Although the health system has a key role to play in addressing these health effects, so too do those professions tasked with the development of the built environment (urban and regional planners, urban designers, landscapers and architects), through improvements to buildings, streets, neighbourhoods, suburbs and cities. This article reports on the ways in which urban planning and design, and architectural interventions, can address the health effects of climate change; and the scope of climate change adaptation and mitigation approaches being implemented by the built environment professions. Type of program or service: Built environment adaptations and mitigations and their connections to the ways in which urban planning, urban design and architectural practices are addressing the health effects of climate change.

METHODS: Our reflections draw on the findings of a recent review of existing health and planning literature. First, we explore the ways in which 'adaptation' and 'mitigation' relate to the notion of human and planetary health. We then outline the broad scope of adaptation and mitigation interventions being envisioned, and in some instances actioned, by built environment professionals.

RESULTS: Analysis of the review's findings reveals that adaptations developed by built environment professions predominantly focus on protecting human health and wellbeing from the effects of climate change. In contrast, built environment mitigations address climate change by embracing a deeper understanding of the co-benefits inherent in the interconnectedness of human health and wellbeing and the health of the ecosystem on which it depends. In the final section, we highlight the ethical transition that these approaches demand of built environment professions.

LESSONS LEARNT: Built environment interventions must move beyond simple ecological sustainability to encouraging ways of life that are healthy for both humans and the planet. There are key challenges facing this new approach.

RevDate: 2019-02-04

Beggs PJ (2018)

Climate change and allergy in Australia: an innovative, high-income country, at potential risk.

Public health research & practice, 28(4): pii:2841828.

OBJECTIVES: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are important and potentially serious in Australia. Australia is highly vulnerable to such impacts because of its very high prevalence of allergic diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis, and allergic sensitisation to environmental allergens such as certain pollens and fungal spores. This article aims to review published research on the impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases from an Australian perspective.

METHODS: Research on climate change, allergens and allergy was reviewed. Recent global assessments of the topic were consulted, and supplemented with database searches to identify research published since the assessments were done, as well as research with an Australian focus. The databases used were Web of Science and Scopus. Only research published since the year 2000 was included.

RESULTS: The impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases are many and varied. Impacts on pollen include effects on pollen production and atmospheric pollen concentration, pollen seasonality, pollen allergenicity, and the dispersion and spatial distribution of pollen. Similarly, there is evidence for effects on fungal spore production, seasonality and allergenicity. There are also likely effects on indoor moisture and mould growth. Beyond these respiratory allergens, climate change may also affect food allergens, stinging insect allergens and contact allergens. All these changes could affect allergic diseases, in particular allergic respiratory diseases such as allergic asthma and allergic rhinitis.

CONCLUSIONS: A large and sophisticated body of research exists from which to gauge both current and potential future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases. However, most, if not all, of this is from outside Australia. Australian-focused research is therefore urgently needed. Australia's vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change on allergic diseases is compounded by the precarious nature of aeroallergen monitoring, reporting and forecasting in this country. But Australia has an impressive wealth of relevant experience and expertise, and has the potential to address the challenge of both current and future impacts of climate change on allergens and allergic diseases.

RevDate: 2019-02-04

Boylan S, Beyer K, Schlosberg D, et al (2018)

A conceptual framework for climate change, health and wellbeing in NSW, Australia.

Public health research & practice, 28(4): pii:2841826.

Changes in natural hazards related to climate change are evident in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and are projected to become more frequent and intense. The impacts of climate change may adversely affect health and wellbeing, directly via extreme weather events such as heatwaves, storms and floods, and indirectly via impacts on food security, air and water quality, and other environmental amenities. The NSW Government's Climate Change Policy Framework recognises the need to reduce the effects of climate change on health and wellbeing. A conceptual framework can support the aims and objectives of the policy framework by depicting the effects of climate change on health, and individual and social wellbeing, and areas for policy actions and responses. A proposed conceptual framework has been developed, modelled on the Driving force, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect and Action (DPSEEA) framework of the World Health Organization - a framework which shows the link between exposures and health effects as well as entry points for interventions. The proposed framework presented in this paper was developed in consultation with researchers and policy makers. The framework is guiding current research examining vulnerabilities to climate change and the effects of a range of exposures on health and wellbeing.

RevDate: 2019-02-04

Perkins-Kirkpatrick S, A Pitman (2018)

Extreme events in the context of climate change.

Public health research & practice, 28(4): pii:2841825.

By definition, extreme events are rare. Socio-economic and human systems have not experienced adverse extreme events frequently enough to develop resilience, whether this be physical, economical or structural. Humans are vulnerable to extreme events because of our physiology and because we build thresholds into our socio-economic and human health systems. When these thresholds are exceeded the consequences can be devastating. This perspective will discuss changes in heat, drought and heavy rainfall extremes in the context of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-02-04

Hime N, Vyas A, Lachireddy K, et al (2018)

Climate change, health and wellbeing: challenges and opportunities in NSW, Australia.

Public health research & practice, 28(4): pii:2841824.

The NSW (New South Wales) Climate Change Policy Framework, launched by the NSW Government in 2016, recognises that climate change presents risks to health and wellbeing. Risks to health and wellbeing come from direct impacts of extreme weather events, and from indirect impacts through effects on air, water, food and ecosystems. Responding to these challenges offers an opportunity to protect and promote health by enhancing environmental amenities, and building adaptive capacity and resilience in populations and systems. To develop policy that effectively protects and promotes health in the face of climate change in NSW it is necessary to define the expected impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing in NSW.

RevDate: 2019-01-17

Capon A, C Corvalan (2018)

Climate change and health: global issue, local responses.

Public health research & practice, 28(4): pii:2841823.

RevDate: 2019-01-30
CmpDate: 2019-01-30

Solomon CG, RC LaRocque (2019)

Climate Change - A Health Emergency.

The New England journal of medicine, 380(3):209-211.

RevDate: 2019-01-30

Moat J, Gole TW, AP Davis (2019)

Least concern to endangered: Applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee.

Global change biology, 25(2):390-403.

Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present-day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.

RevDate: 2019-01-16

Silverman GS (2019)

Systematic Lack of Educational Preparation in Addressing Climate Change as a Major Public Health Challenge.

American journal of public health, 109(2):242-243.

RevDate: 2019-01-16

Arco Molina JG, Helle G, Hadad MA, et al (2019)

Variations in the intrinsic water-use efficiency of north Patagonian forests under a present climate change scenario: tree age, site conditions and long-term environmental effects.

Tree physiology pii:5288252 [Epub ahead of print].

The carbon isotope composition (δ13C) in tree rings were used to derive the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of Araucaria araucana trees of northern Patagonia along a strong precipitation gradient. It is well known that climatic and ontogenetic factors affect growth performance of this species but little is known about their influence in the physiological responses, as iWUE. Thus, the main objective of this study was to assess the physiological reactions of young and adult trees from two open xeric and two moderately dense mesic A. araucana forests to the increases in atmospheric CO2 (Ca) and air temperature during the 20th century, and to relate these responses with radial tree growth. The results indicated that the iWUE and the intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) increased 33% and 32% in average during the last century, respectively, but carbon isotope discrimination (∆13C) was more variable between sites and age classes. Trees from xeric sites presented greater iWUE and lower ∆13C and Ci values than those from mesic sites. In general, iWUE was strongly related with Ca and was significantly affected by mean summer maximum temperature. ∆13C from mesic sites seemed to be mainly affected by summer maximum temperature, while trees from xeric conditions did not show any influence. Tree age also presented a significant effect on iWUE. Adult trees showed higher iWUE values than young trees, indicating an incidence of the tree age and/or height, mainly in closed mesic forests. Moreover, some trees presented positive relationships between iWUE and radial tree growth, while others presented negative or no relationships, indicating that other factors may negatively influence tree growth. Broadly, the results demonstrate the incidence of climatic, environmental and ontogenetic variability in the tree responses; however, more studies are needed to better understand which forests will be more affected by actual and future climate changes.

RevDate: 2019-01-20

Heshmati I, Khorasani N, Shams-Esfandabad B, et al (2019)

Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(2):72 pii:10.1007/s10661-018-7154-9.

Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution and climate change will affect the species abilities to occupy geographic regions. Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive species and its biological invasion causes various negative effects in tropical, arid, and semi-arid regions of the world. As eradication efforts subsequent to the establishment of an alien invasive species are costly and time-consuming, assessing patterns of the introduction of an invasive species to new regions is among the most cost-effective means of monitoring and management of natural ecosystems. In this study by using the concept of species distribution modeling (SDM) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of P. juliflora has been assessed at a global scale. Bioclimatic variables in current condition and 2050 regarding two global circulation models (GCM) and two climate change scenarios were considered as explanatory variables. Our results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), annual precipitation (BIO12), and temperature mean diurnal range (BIO2) represented more than 87% of the variations in the model, and with an AUC of 0.854 and TSS of 0.51, the model showed a good predictive performance. Our results indicate that on a global scale, suitable ranges for P. juliflora increase across all the GCM and RCP scenarios. In a global scale, Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and North America are regions with the highest risk of range expansion in the future. Regarding the negative impacts of P. juliflora on structure and function of natural habitats in the invaded areas, findings of this study could be considered as a warning appliance for the environmental monitoring of the regions highly sensitive to the global invasion of the species. We suggest that assessing impacts of climate change on the global distribution of the invasive species could be used as an efficient tool to implement broad-scale and priority-setting monitoring programs in natural ecosystems.

RevDate: 2019-01-31

Fadrique B, Báez S, Duque Á, et al (2019)

Author Correction: Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.

Nature, 565(7741):E10.

In Fig. 2 of this Article, the positive part of the y axis scale should read 0, 0.02, 0.04 instead of 0, 0.04, 0.02. This has been corrected online.

RevDate: 2019-01-29

Popkin G (2019)

How much can forests fight climate change?.

Nature, 565(7739):280-282.

RevDate: 2019-01-15

Bruine de Bruin W, MG Morgan (2019)

Reflections on an interdisciplinary collaboration to inform public understanding of climate change, mitigation, and impacts.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1803726115 [Epub ahead of print].

We describe two interdisciplinary projects in which natural scientists and engineers, as well as psychologists and other behavioral scientists, worked together to better communicate about climate change, including mitigation and impacts. One project focused on understanding and informing public perceptions of an emerging technology to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants, as well as other low-carbon electricity-generation technologies. A second project focused on public understanding about carbon dioxide's residence time in the atmosphere. In both projects, we applied the mental-models approach, which aims to design effective communications by using insights from interdisciplinary teams of experts and mental models elicited from intended audience members. In addition to summarizing our findings, we discuss the process of interdisciplinary collaboration that we pursued in framing and completing both projects. We conclude by describing what we think we have learned about the conditions that supported our ongoing interdisciplinary collaborations.

RevDate: 2019-01-17

Rolo V, G Moreno (2019)

Shrub encroachment and climate change increase the exposure to drought of Mediterranean wood-pastures.

The Science of the total environment, 660:550-558 pii:S0048-9697(19)30035-X [Epub ahead of print].

Pastures and wood-pastures, livestock grazing systems where scattered trees and shrubs co-occur, are essential for global food supply. The grazing value of these systems, which is closely related to soil moisture, is increasingly threatened by changes in climate variability and vegetation structure, mainly by shrub encroachment. However, it remains relatively unexplored to what extent the concurrent effect of climate change and shrub encroachment will affect the exposure to drought stress of Mediterranean wood-pastures - defined as a period where soil water availability drops below 40%. Here we combined soil moisture measurements and a process-based water balance model to assess the effect of shrubs, a shallow- and a deep-rooted, on soil moisture under current (2009-2012) and future weather (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Soil moisture was measured and predicted in six sites, three for each type of shrub, where two adjacent plots were selected, a control and an encroached plot. During 2009-2012, encroached plots had more extended droughts (29 and 48 days longer in sites encroached with shallow- and deep-rooted shrubs, respectively) and higher usage of deep water (~30%) than control plots. Under future climatic projections, our results show a consistent increase in the duration, an earlier onset of drought and higher reliance on shallow water with time, particularly under the worst climatic scenario. Encroached plots showed higher inter-annual variability than control plots, particularly in plots encroached with the deep-rooted shrub. Our results indicate that the presence of shrubs magnify the effect of climate. This suggests a likely increase in the exposure of Mediterranean wood-pastures to drought if processes of shrub encroachment persist in a context of climatic changes where earlier and more prolonged droughts will become more frequent.

RevDate: 2019-01-17

Zheng K, Wei JZ, Pei JY, et al (2019)

Impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation variation in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

The Science of the total environment, 660:236-244 pii:S0048-9697(19)30022-1 [Epub ahead of print].

China initiated the "Grain for Green Project" in 1999 to mitigate soil erosion. The vegetation cover of the Chinese Loess Plateau, one of the most erosive regions in the world, has been greatly increased. However, studies on quantitatively investigating the climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage change were rare. In this study, spatio-temporal changes in vegetation coverage were investigated using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data over 2000-2016. And a new method was introduced using Net Primary Productivity (NPP) model and relationship between NPP and NDVI to quantitatively and spatially distinguish the NDVI affected by climate change and human activities. Results showed that mean NDVI value over 2009-2016 were 14.46% greater than that over 2000-2007. In order to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to vegetation change, an NPP model suitable for the grassland of the Chinese Loess Plateau was identified using biomass observations from field survey and literature. The NDVI affected by climate change (NDVIclimate) was estimated by the NPP model and the relationship between NPP and NDVI. And the NDVI affected by human activities (NDVIhuman) was calculated by actual NDVI minus NDVIclimate. Comparison of the two stages showed that human activities and climate change contributed 42.35% and 57.65% respectively to the ΔNDVI on grassland in the Loess Plateau. After analysis of numerous NDVIhuman related factors, the slopes restored by the "Grain for Green Project" was considered the main influence factor of human activities.

RevDate: 2019-01-17

Li G, Sun S, Han J, et al (2019)

Impacts of Chinese Grain for Green program and climate change on vegetation in the Loess Plateau during 1982-2015.

The Science of the total environment, 660:177-187 pii:S0048-9697(19)30034-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Remote sensing based vegetation index provides a practical method for the monitoring of vegetation dynamics at regional and global scales. Here, using a long-term remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we quantified the vegetation changes in the Loess Plateau (LP) over the last three decades (1982-2015), which includes the period before the Chinese"Grain for Green Program"(GGP) was launched (1982-1999), and the period after the GGP (1999-2015). The correlations between the NDVI and four climate related variables, i.e., precipitation, temperature, root-soil moisture (RSM), and a drought proxy-standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI), were also examined. The results indicated that, (i) the GGP strongly changed the vegetation in the LP. The growing-season mean NDVI (GSM-NDVI) and the annual mean NDVI (AM-NDVI) decreased slightly before the GGP launched in 1999, with slopes of -3.38 × 10-3 and - 8.00 × 10-4 year-1, respectively. However, they showed slight and significant (p < 0.05) increases after the GGP, with slopes of 4.75 × 10-3 and 2.32 × 10-3 year-1, respectively. (ii) Climate change (i.e., warming and drying) resulted in adverse effects on vegetation in the LP during the period before the GGP. However, the observed changes (i.e., wetting and reduced drought) exerted positive effects on the vegetation during the period after the GGP. (iii) Inter-annual variations of spatially averaged NDVI over the LP were primarily determined by RSM rather than any other climate related variables. In the southeastern LP, the inter-annual variation of GSM-NDVI was mainly determined by precipitation and SEDI, while the inter-annual variation of AM-NDVI was mainly caused by SEDI and RSM. Inter-annual variations of both GSM-NDVI and AM-NDVI were mainly determined by SEDI and RSM in the northwestern LP, and by temperature in the southwestern LP.

RevDate: 2019-01-22

Samplonius JM, C Both (2019)

Climate Change May Affect Fatal Competition between Two Bird Species.

Current biology : CB, 29(2):327-331.e2.

Climate warming has altered phenologies of many taxa [1, 2], but the extent differs vastly between [3, 4] and within trophic levels [5-7]. Differential adjustment to climate warming within trophic levels may affect coexistence of competing species, because relative phenologies alter facilitative and competitive outcomes [8, 9], but evidence for this is scant [10, 11]. Here, we report on two mechanisms through which climate change may affect fatal interactions between two sympatric passerines, the resident great tit Parus major and the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, competing for nest sites. Spring temperature more strongly affected breeding phenology of tits than flycatchers, and tits killed more flycatchers when flycatcher arrival coincided with peak laying in the tits. Ongoing climate change may diminish this fatal competition if great tit and flycatcher phenologies diverge. However, great tit density increased after warm winters, and flycatcher mortality was elevated when tit densities were higher. Consequently, flycatcher males in synchronous and high-tit-density years suffered mortality by great tits of up to 8.9%. Interestingly, we found no population consequences of fatal competition, suggesting that mortality predominantly happened among surplus males. Indeed, late-arriving males are less likely to find a partner [12], and here we show that such late arrivers are more likely to die from competition with great tits. We conclude that our breeding population is buffered against detrimental effects of competition. Nevertheless, we expect that if buffers are diminished, population consequences of interspecific competition may become apparent, especially after warm winters that are benign to resident species. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

RevDate: 2019-01-14

Verheyen J, R Stoks (2019)

Temperature variation makes an ectotherm more sensitive to global warming unless thermal evolution occurs.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

1.To assess long-term impacts of global warming on species there is growing interest in latitudinal intraspecific patterns in thermal adaptation. Yet, while both mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs) are expected to increase under global warming, latitudinal differences in the effects of DTFs have not been documented. 2.We tested whether low-latitude populations of an ectotherm deal better with greater DTF than high-latitude populations, especially at a high mean temperature close to the optimal temperature for growth where DTF causes exposure to extreme high temperatures. We evaluated the impact of DTFs when assessing the effect of gradual thermal evolution at the high latitude with a space-for-time substitution. 3.We compared effects of both mean temperatures (20°C and 24°C) and DTFs (constant = 0°C, low = 5°C and high = 10°C) on growth rates between low-latitude and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common-garden experiment. 4.DTFs, if anything, reduced growth and were generally stressful as indicated by reductions in body condition, antioxidant defense and metabolic rate, and increases in oxidative damage. Most negative effects of DTFs were only present at a mean of 24°C when too high temperatures were reached during a daily cycle. Notably, while 4°C warming was beneficial in terms of growth rate at both latitudes at a constant temperature regime, this changed in a negative effect at high DTF. Moreover, this modulating effect of the mean temperature by DTF differed between latitudes indicating local thermal adaptation. While 4°C warming at low DTF still caused faster growth in low-latitude larvae, it already slowed growth in high-latitude larvae. This supports the emerging insight that warming would increase growth in high-latitude larvae in absence of DTF, yet would decrease growth in the more realistic scenarios with DTF. In contrast, a space-for-time substitution approach suggested that under gradual thermal evolution, the evolved high-latitude larvae would no longer suffer a growth reduction in the presence of DTF. 5.Our study provided important proof-of-principle that jointly integrating gradual thermal evolution and the expected increase in DTF generates opposing predictions of effects of global warming on this ectotherm. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-01-13

Davies WJ (2019)

Multiple temperature effects on phenology and body size in wild butterflies predict a complex response to climate change.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Temperature induced alterations in phenology and body size are the cumulative outcome of sequential effects impacting development, and are universal responses to climate change. Most studies have so far focused on phenological responses to warming in multiple taxa across space and time, or the ontogenetic effects of temperature in the laboratory. I here complement this work by investigating shifts in phenology and body size (wing-length) attributable to temperature changes operating over the entire lifespan of the univoltine orange-tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines in a single wild population over 14 generations. Phenology was affected by temperatures during three discrete periods in the year prior to emergence, corresponding to late larval/early pupal life, the onset of the chilling period required to break pupal diapause, and post-diapause pupal development prior to eclosion. Higher temperatures during late larval/early pupal life and post-diapause pupal development advanced the subsequent emergence of the butterflies, whereas higher temperatures at the onset of the chilling period retarded it. The synchronization of the butterflies' emergence schedule increased when pupae were exposed to milder mid-winter temperatures. Wing-length increased with warmer temperatures at distinct points in the early and mid pupal periods; such direct effects of temperature on body size could complement season length effects in explaining the reversal of the temperature-size rule in univoltine insects. The periods during which temperature affected the phenology of the butterfly only partially overlapped those affecting the first flowering date of its host-plants lady's smock Cardamine pratensis and garlic mustard Alliaria petiolata. Observed thermal effects on flowering time, emergence timing and emergence synchronization indicate that phenological convergence as well as phenological mismatching could affect host-plant availability and diet breadth; thermal effects on body size imply that important population-level processes could be impacted through correlated changes in fecundity and dispersal rate. In general, the combined effects of phenological and ontogenetic responses to temperature changes across the whole lifespan will likely be important in modelling the demographic responses of interacting species to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
21454 NE 143rd Street
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E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )