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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 10 Dec 2018 at 01:35 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Beggs PJ, Y Zhang (2018)

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives(Summary).

The Medical journal of Australia, 209(11):474-475.

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Zhang Y, Beggs PJ, Bambrick H, et al (2018)

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives.

The Medical journal of Australia, 209(11):474.

Climate plays an important role in human health and it is well established that climate change can have very significant impacts in this regard. In partnership with The Lancet and the MJA, we present the inaugural Australian Countdown assessment of progress on climate change and health. This comprehensive assessment examines 41 indicators across five broad sections: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. These indicators and the methods used for each are largely consistent with those of the Lancet Countdown global assessment published in October 2017, but with an Australian focus. Significant developments include the addition of a new indicator on mental health. Overall, we find that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon-intensive energy system in Australia, and its slow transition to renewables and low carbon electricity generation. However, we also find some examples of good progress, such as heatwave response planning. Given the overall poor state of progress on climate change and health in Australia, this country now has an enormous opportunity to take action and protect human health and lives. Australia has the technical knowhow and intellect to do this, and our annual updates of this assessment will track Australia's engagement with and progress on this vitally important issue.

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Xu Y, Ramanathan V, DG Victor (2018)

Global warming will happen faster than we think.

Nature, 564(7734):30-32.

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Slatin C (2018)

Climate Change Action Requires Unity Among Movements for Justice and Peace.

New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2018-12-06

Yu Q, Wang F, Yan W, et al (2018)

Carbon and Nitrogen Burial and Response to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Disturbance in Chaohu Lake, China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(12): pii:ijerph15122734.

Lakes are a crucial component of the global carbon and nitrogen cycle. As a trend of enhanced human activities and climate change, the mechanisms of burial remain poorly understood. In this study, diverse biogeochemical techniques were applied to analyze the temporal variation of organic carbon and nitrogen burial rates in Chaohu Lake. The results showed that burial rates have ranged from 9.39 to 35.87 g C m-2 yr-1 for carbon and from 1.66 to 5.67 g N m-2 yr-1 for nitrogen since the 1860s. The average rates were 19.6 g C m-2 yr-1 and 3.14 g N m-2 yr-1 after the 1970s, which were significantly higher than the rate before the 1970s, showing an increasing trend. The decrease of C/N ratios as well as organic matter δ13C values indicates that the major organic matter source in sediment has been algal production since the 1970s. The increase of δ15N values indicated that the promotion in productivity was stimulated by nutrient input from sewage and agricultural runoff. The burial rates of organic carbon and nitrogen were significantly positively related to socio-economics and temperature, indicating that Chaohu Lake will become an increasing carbon and nitrogen pool under conditions of enhanced human activities and intensive precipitation.

RevDate: 2018-12-03

Olusanya HO, M van Zyll de Jong (2018)

Assessing the vulnerability of freshwater fishes to climate change in Newfoundland and Labrador.

PloS one, 13(12):e0208182 pii:PONE-D-18-08535.

Freshwater fish populations are rapidly declining globally due to the impacts of rapid climate change and existing non-climatic anthropogenic stressors. In response to these drivers, freshwater fishes are responding by shifting their distribution range, altering the timing of migration and spawning and through demographic processes. By 2050, the mean daily air temperature is predicted to increase by 2 to 3 degrees C in insular Newfoundland and by 3 to 4 degrees C in Labrador. Mean daily precipitation is also projected to increase in all locations, with increased intensity projected for several regions. To mitigate negative consequences of these changes, managers require analytical approaches that describe the vulnerability of fish to climate change. To address this need, the current study adopts the National Marine Fisheries Service vulnerability assessment framework to characterize the vulnerability of freshwater fishes in Newfoundland and Labrador. Twelve vulnerability indicators were developed from an extensive literature review and applied to the assessment. Experts were solicited using an online questionnaire survey and scores for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were collated and analyzed to derive a final vulnerability score and rank for each species. The analysis showed one species to be of high-very high vulnerability, two species were highly vulnerable while four species were moderately vulnerable to climate change. The result provides insight into the factors that drive vulnerability of freshwater fishes in the region, this information is significant to decision-makers and other stakeholders engaged in managing freshwater fish resources in Newfoundland and Labrador.

RevDate: 2018-12-03

Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, et al (2018)

The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come.

Lancet (London, England) pii:S0140-6736(18)32594-7 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2018-12-03

The Lancet (2018)

Humanising health and climate change.

RevDate: 2018-12-05

Hess JJ, Lm S, Knowlton K, et al (2018)

Building Resilience to Climate Change: Pilot Evaluation of the Impact of India's First Heat Action Plan on All-Cause Mortality.

Journal of environmental and public health, 2018:7973519.

Background: Ahmedabad implemented South Asia's first heat action plan (HAP) after a 2010 heatwave. This study evaluates the HAP's impact on all-cause mortality in 2014-2015 relative to a 2007-2010 baseline.

Methods: We analyzed daily maximum temperature (Tmax)-mortality relationships before and after HAP. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) for daily mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models and mortality incidence rates (IRs) for HAP warning days, comparing pre- and post-HAP periods, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs). We estimated the number of deaths avoided after HAP implementation using pre- and post-HAP IRs.

Results: The maximum pre-HAP RR was 2.34 (95%CI 1.98-2.76) at 47°C (lag 0), and the maximum post-HAP RR was 1.25 (1.02-1.53) estimated at 47°C (lag 0). Post-to-pre-HAP nonlagged mortality IRR for Tmax over 40°C was 0.95 (0.73-1.22) and 0.73 (0.29-1.81) for Tmax over 45°C. An estimated 1,190 (95%CI 162-2,218) average annualized deaths were avoided in the post-HAP period.

Conclusion: Extreme heat and HAP warnings after implementation were associated with decreased summertime all-cause mortality rates, with largest declines at highest temperatures. Ahmedabad's plan can serve as a guide for other cities attempting to increase resilience to extreme heat.

RevDate: 2018-12-05

Sarkodie SA, V Strezov (2018)

Economic, social and governance adaptation readiness for mitigation of climate change vulnerability: Evidence from 192 countries.

The Science of the total environment, 656:150-164 pii:S0048-9697(18)34705-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Adaptation strategies have become critical in climate change mitigation and impact reduction, to safeguard population and the ecosystem from irreparable damage. While developed countries have integrated adaptation plans and policies into their developmental agenda, developing countries are facilitating or yet to initiate adaptation policies in their development. This study examines the nexus between climate change vulnerability and adaptation readiness in 192 UN countries using mapping and panel data models. The study reveals Africa as the most vulnerable continent to climate change with high sensitivity, high exposure, and low adaptive capacity. Developed countries, including Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, United Kingdom, Finland, France, Spain, and Germany, are less vulnerable to climate change due to strong economic, governance and social adaptation readiness. International commitment from developed countries to developing countries is essential to strengthen their resilience, economic readiness and adaptive capacity to climate-related events.

RevDate: 2018-12-04

Mukundan R, Scheerer M, Gelda RK, et al (2018)

Probabilistic Estimation of Stream Turbidity and Application under Climate Change Scenarios.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(6):1522-1529.

Streamflow-based rating curves are widely used to estimate turbidity or suspended sediment concentrations in streams. However, such estimates are often inaccurate at the event scale due to inter- and intra-event variability in sediment-streamflow relationships. In this study, we use a quantile regression approach to derive a probabilistic distribution of turbidity predictions for Esopus Creek, a major stream in one of the watersheds that supply drinking water to New York City, using measured daily mean streamflow-turbidity data pairs for 2003 to 2016. Although a single regression curve can underpredict or overpredict the actual observation, quantile regression can estimate a range of possible turbidity values for a given value of streamflow. Regression relationships for various quantiles were applied to streamflows simulated by a watershed model to predict stream turbidity under: (i) the observed historical climate, and (ii) a future climate derived from 20 global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Future scenarios using quantile regression in combination with these GCMs and a stochastic weather generator indicated an increase in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological events that may generate high stream turbidity and cause potential water quality challenges to the water supply. The methods outlined in this study can be used for probabilistic estimation of stream turbidity for operational decisions and can be part of a vulnerability-based method to explore climate impacts on water resources.

RevDate: 2018-12-04

Bjornsson H (2018)

[Climate change and health].

Laeknabladid, 104(12):539.

RevDate: 2018-12-04

Arshad S, Ahmad M, Saboor A, et al (2018)

Role of trees in climate change and their authentication through scanning electron microscopy.

Microscopy research and technique [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is the most realistic theory of this era. Sudden and drastic changes are happening on the earth and the survival of mankind is becoming questionable in the future. The plants play the key role in controlling the climate change. The study emphasizes on role of trees in the cop up or damaging the climate of this earth, whether they are medicinal trees or economically important trees. Due to the overgrazing and intense deforestation the climate is being affected hazardously. The global warming phenomenon is occurring due to the less availability of trees and more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In total 20 plants were collected from across the Pakistan on the basis of their abundance and their key roles. Out of which seeds of eight plants were scanned through scanning electron microscope for correct authentication and importance of these medicinally important trees in mitigating the climate change. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: The role of forest sector in the climate's change mitigation. Medicinally and economically important tree species across Pakistan. By using SEM, Ultra seed sculpturing features as an authentication tool. To formulate some policies to stop or control deforestation.

RevDate: 2018-12-04

Olson JR (2018)

Predicting combined effects of land use and climate change on river and stream salinity.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1764): pii:rstb.2018.0005.

Agricultural, industrial and urban development have all contributed to increased salinity in streams and rivers, but the likely effects of future development and climate change are unknown. I developed two empirical models to estimate how these combined effects might affect salinity by the end of this century (measured as electrical conductivity, EC). The first model predicts natural background from static (e.g. geology and soils) and dynamic (i.e. climate and vegetation) environmental factors and explained 78% of the variation in EC. I then compared the estimated background EC with current measurements at 2001 sites chosen probabilistically from all conterminous USA streams. EC was more than 50% greater at 34% of these sites. The second model predicts deviation of EC from background as a function of human land use and environmental factors and explained 60% of the variation in alteration from background. I then predicted the effects of climate and land use change on EC at the end of the century by replacing dynamic variables with published projections of future conditions based on the A2 emissions scenario. By the end of the century, the median EC is predicted to increase from 0.319 mS cm-1 to 0.524 mS cm-1 with over 50% of streams having greater than 50% increases in EC and 35% more than doubling their EC. Most of the change is related to increases in human land use, with climate change accounting for only 12% of the increase. In extreme cases, increased salinity may make water unsuitable for human use, but widespread moderate increases are likely a greater threat to stream ecosystems owing to the elimination of low EC habitats.This article is part of the theme issue 'Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects'.

RevDate: 2018-12-04

Le TDH, Kattwinkel M, Schützenmeister K, et al (2018)

Predicting current and future background ion concentrations in German surface water under climate change.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1764): pii:rstb.2018.0004.

Salinization of surface waters is a global environmental issue that can pose a regional risk to freshwater organisms, potentially leading to high environmental and economic costs. Global environmental change including climate and land use change can increase the transport of ions into surface waters. We fit both multiple linear regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models on a large spatial dataset to predict Ca2+ (266 sites), Mg2+ (266 sites), and [Formula: see text] (357 sites) ion concentrations as well as electrical conductivity (EC-a proxy for total dissolved solids with 410 sites) in German running water bodies. Predictions in both types of models were driven by the major factors controlling salinity including geologic and soil properties, climate, vegetation and topography. The predictive power of the two types of models was very similar, with RF explaining 71-76% of the spatial variation in ion concentrations and LR explaining 70-75% of the variance. Mean squared errors for predictions were all smaller than 0.06. The factors most strongly associated with stream ion concentrations varied among models but rock chemistry and climate were the most dominant. The RF model was subsequently used to forecast the changes in EC that were likely to occur for the period of 2070 to 2100 in response to just climate change-i.e. no additional effects of other anthropogenic activities. The future forecasting shows approximately 10% and 15% increases in mean EC for representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5 (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively.This article is part of the theme issue 'Salt in freshwaters: causes, ecological consequences and future prospects'.

RevDate: 2018-12-04

Diele-Viegas LM, CFD Rocha (2018)

Unraveling the influences of climate change in Lepidosauria (Reptilia).

Journal of thermal biology, 78:401-414.

In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans and many species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and interactions in response to these changes. Projections of future climate change are uncertain, but the Earth's warming is likely to exceed 4.8 °C by the end of 21th century. The vulnerability of a population, species, group or system due to climate change is a function of impact of the changes on the evaluated system (exposure and sensitivity) and adaptive capacity as a response to this impact, and the relationship between these elements will determine the degree of species vulnerability. Predicting the potential future risks to biodiversity caused by climate change has become an extremely active field of research, and several studies in the last two decades had focused on determining possible impacts of climate change on Lepidosaurians, at a global, regional and local level. Here we conducted a systematic review of published studies in order to seek to what extent the accumulated knowledge currently allow us to identify potential trends or patterns regarding climate change effects on lizards, snakes, amphisbaenians and tuatara. We conducted a literature search among online literature databases/catalogues and recorded 255 studies addressing the influence of climate change on a total of 1918 species among 49 Lepidosaurian's families. The first study addressing this subject is dated 1999. Most of the studies focused on species distribution, followed by thermal biology, reproductive biology, behavior and genetics. We concluded that an integrative approach including most of these characteristics and also bioclimatic and environmental variables, may lead to consistent and truly effective strategies for species conservation, aiming to buffer the climate change effects on this group of reptiles.

RevDate: 2018-11-30

Dahlke FT, Butzin M, Nahrgang J, et al (2018)

Northern cod species face spawning habitat losses if global warming exceeds 1.5°C.

Science advances, 4(11):eaas8821 pii:aas8821.

Rapid climate change in the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic poses a threat to some of the world's largest fish populations. Impacts of warming and acidification may become accessible through mechanism-based risk assessments and projections of future habitat suitability. We show that ocean acidification causes a narrowing of embryonic thermal ranges, which identifies the suitability of spawning habitats as a critical life-history bottleneck for two abundant cod species. Embryonic tolerance ranges linked to climate simulations reveal that ever-increasing CO2 emissions [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5] will deteriorate suitability of present spawning habitat for both Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) by 2100. Moderate warming (RCP4.5) may avert dangerous climate impacts on Atlantic cod but still leaves few spawning areas for the more vulnerable Polar cod, which also loses the benefits of an ice-covered ocean. Emissions following RCP2.6, however, support largely unchanged habitat suitability for both species, suggesting that risks are minimized if warming is held "below 2°C, if not 1.5°C," as pledged by the Paris Agreement.

RevDate: 2018-11-30

Hoffmann C, Hanisch M, Heinsohn JB, et al (2018)

Increased vulnerability of COPD patient groups to urban climate in view of global warming.

International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 13:3493-3501 pii:copd-13-3493.

Purpose: Patients with COPD show an increase in acute exacerbations (AECOPD) during the cold season as well as during heat waves in the summer months. Due to global climate changes, extreme weather conditions are likely to occur more frequently in the future. The goal of this study was to identify patient groups most at risk of exacerbations during the four seasons of the year and to determine at which temperature threshold the daily hospital admissions due to AECOPD increase during the summer.

Patients and methods: We analyzed retrospective demographic and medical data of 990 patients, who were hospitalized for AECOPD in Berlin, Germany. The cases were grouped into the following cohorts: "spring" (admission between March and May), "summer" (June - August), "autumn" (September - November), and "winter" (December - February). AECOPD hospital admissions from 2006 and 2010 were grouped into a "hot summer" cohort and cases from 2011 and 2012 into a "cold summer" data-set. Climate data were obtained from the German Meteorological Office.

Results: Patients hospitalized for a COPD exacerbation during winter were significantly older than summertime patients (P=0.040) and also thinner than patients exacerbating in spring (P=0.042). COPD exacerbations during hot summer periods happened more often to patients with a history of myocardial infarction (P=0.014) or active smokers (P=0.011). An AECOPD during colder summers occurred in patients with a higher Charlson index, who suffered in increased numbers from peripheral vascular diseases (P=0.016) or tumors (P=0.004). Summertime hospital admissions increased above a daily minimum temperature of 18.3°C (P=0.006).

Conclusion: The identification of COPD patient groups most at risk for climate related exacerbations enables climate-adapted prevention through patient guidance and treatment. In view of global climate changes, discovering vulnerabilities and implementing adaptive measures will be of growing importance.

RevDate: 2018-11-30

Arabena K, Armstrong F, Berry H, et al (2018)

Australian health professionals' statement on climate change and health.

Lancet (London, England), 392(10160):2169-2170.

RevDate: 2018-11-29

Figueres C, Landrigan PJ, R Fuller (2018)

Tackling air pollution, climate change, and NCDs: time to pull together.

Lancet (London, England), 392(10157):1502-1503.

RevDate: 2018-11-29

Wise J (2018)

Climate change is outpacing response, warn experts.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 363:k5018.

RevDate: 2018-11-29

Yang L, Liao W, Liu C, et al (2018)

Associations between Knowledge of the Causes and Perceived Impacts of Climate Change: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Medical, Public Health and Nursing Students in Universities in China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(12): pii:ijerph15122650.

This study aimed to measure the knowledge and perceptions of medical, public health, and nursing students about climate change and its impacts, and to identify associations between the knowledge and perceptions. Data were from a nationwide cross-sectional survey of 1387 students sampled in five different regional universities in China (April⁻May 2017). The knowledge and perceptions of the participants were collected by self-administered questionnaires. We found that most respondents believed that climate change is generally "bad" (83%) and bad for human health (88%), while 67% believed that climate change is controllable. The vast majority of respondents acknowledged illness conditions resulting from poor air quality (95%), heat stress (93%), and extreme weather events (91%) as potential impacts of climate change. Nevertheless, only 39% recognized malnutrition as a consequence of food deprivation resulting from climate change. Around 58% of respondents could correctly identify the causes of climate change. The knowledge of the causes of climate change was not associated with the ability to recognize the health consequences of climate change. However, the knowledge of causes of climate change was a significant predictor of increased awareness of the negative impacts of climate change between the medical and nursing students, although this was not the case among their public health counterparts. Poor knowledge about the causes of climate change is evident among students in China. They are able to recognize the direct links between weather events and health, but less likely to understand the consequences involving complicated pathways. Research and training into the underlying mechanisms of health impacts of climate change needs to be strengthened.

RevDate: 2018-11-29

Rakotoarison N, Raholijao N, Razafindramavo LM, et al (2018)

Assessment of Risk, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change by the Health Sector in Madagascar.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(12): pii:ijerph15122643.

Madagascar is cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, with significant impacts to the health of its population. In this study, the vulnerability of Madagascar's health sector to climate change was assessed and appropriate adaptation measures were identified. In order to assess climate risks, vulnerability and identify adaptation options, the Madagascar Ministry of Public Health as well as the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service worked in close collaboration with a team of local experts to conduct a literature review, field surveys, and analyses of current and future climate and health trends. Four climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern are described in the study: acute respiratory infections (ARI), diarrhea, malnutrition, and malaria. Baseline conditions of these four diseases from 2000 to 2014 show acute respiratory infections and diarrheal diseases are increasing in incidence; while incidence of malnutrition and malaria decreased over this period. To assess future impacts in Madagascar, this baseline information was used with climate projections for the two scenarios-RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-for the periods 2016⁻2035, 2036⁻2070 and 2071⁻2100. Future climate conditions are shown to exacerbate and increase the incidence of all four climate sensitive diseases. Further analysis of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the climate hazards suggests that the health sector in four regions of Madagascar is particularly vulnerable. The study recommends adaptation measures to improve the monitoring and early warning systems for climate sensitive diseases, as well as to reduce population vulnerability.

RevDate: 2018-11-28

Cohen JM, Civitello DJ, Venesky MD, et al (2018)

An interaction between climate change and infectious disease drove widespread amphibian declines.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host-parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool- and warm-adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments on Atelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genus Atelopus that are thought to be associated with B. dendrobatidis and reveal that these declines are best explained by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.

RevDate: 2018-11-28

Henn JJ, Buzzard V, Enquist BJ, et al (2018)

Intraspecific Trait Variation and Phenotypic Plasticity Mediate Alpine Plant Species Response to Climate Change.

Frontiers in plant science, 9:1548.

In a rapidly changing climate, alpine plants may persist by adapting to new conditions. However, the rate at which the climate is changing might exceed the rate of adaptation through evolutionary processes in long-lived plants. Persistence may depend on phenotypic plasticity in morphology and physiology. Here we investigated patterns of leaf trait variation including leaf area, leaf thickness, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nutrients (C, N, P) and isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) across an elevation gradient on Gongga Mountain, Sichuan Province, China. We quantified inter- and intra-specific trait variation and the plasticity in leaf traits of selected species to experimental warming and cooling by using a reciprocal transplantation approach. We found substantial phenotypic plasticity in most functional traits where δ15N, leaf area, and leaf P showed greatest plasticity. These traits did not correspond with traits with the largest amount of intraspecific variation. Plasticity in leaf functional traits tended to enable plant populations to shift their trait values toward the mean values of a transplanted plants' destination community, but only if that population started with very different trait values. These results suggest that leaf trait plasticity is an important mechanism for enabling plants to persist within communities and to better tolerate changing environmental conditions under climate change.

RevDate: 2018-11-29

Johnson SR (2017)

'Climate change is the greatest public health threat we have'.

Modern healthcare, 47(16):32-33.

The Obama administration's public health efforts focused on acknowledging that social factors such as poverty and food insecurity affect the health outcomes of communities. The election of Donald Trump worries public health experts such as Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, who sat down with Modern Healthcare reporter Steven Ross Johnson to discuss what's next for public health under a Trump administration and where he sees opportunities for collaboration in a potential post-ACA world. The following is an edited transcript.

RevDate: 2018-11-27

Berry P, Enright PM, Shumake-Guillemot J, et al (2018)

Assessing Health Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review of International Progress.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(12): pii:ijerph15122626.

Climate change is increasing risks to human health and to the health systems that seek to protect the safety and well-being of populations. Health authorities require information about current associations between health outcomes and weather or climate, vulnerable populations, projections of future risks and adaptation opportunities in order to reduce exposures, empower individuals to take needed protective actions and build climate-resilient health systems. An increasing number of health authorities from local to national levels seek this information by conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments. While assessments can provide valuable information to plan for climate change impacts, the results of many studies are not helping to build the global evidence-base of knowledge in this area. They are also often not integrated into adaptation decision making, sometimes because the health sector is not involved in climate change policy making processes at the national level. Significant barriers related to data accessibility, a limited number of climate and health models, uncertainty in climate projections, and a lack of funding and expertise, particularly in developing countries, challenge health authority efforts to conduct rigorous assessments and apply the findings. This paper examines the evolution of climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments, including guidance developed for such projects, the number of assessments that have been conducted globally and implementation of the findings to support health adaptation action. Greater capacity building that facilitates assessments from local to national scales will support collaborative efforts to protect health from current climate hazards and future climate change. Health sector officials will benefit from additional resources and partnership opportunities to ensure that evidence about climate change impacts on health is effectively translated into needed actions to build health resilience.

RevDate: 2018-11-30

Koutroulis AG (2018)

Dryland changes under different levels of global warming.

The Science of the total environment, 655:482-511 pii:S0048-9697(18)34571-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Drylands are vital ecosystems which cover almost 47% of the Earth's surface, hosting 39% of the global population. Dryland areas are highly sensitive to climatic changes and substantial impacts are foreseen under a warming climate. Many studies have examined the evolution of drylands in the future highlighting the need for improved capability of climate models to simulate aridity. The present study takes advantage of new higher resolution climate projections by the HadGEM3A Atmosphere Global Climate Model using prescribed time varying SSTs and sea ice, provided by a range of CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5. The aim of the higher resolution models is to examine the benefit of the improved representation of atmospheric processes in the dryland research and to see where these results lie in the range of results from previous studies using the original CMIP5 ensemble. The transient response of aridity from the recent past until the end of the 21st century was examined as well as the expansion of global drylands under specific levels of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C). Dryland changes were further assessed at the watershed level for a number of major global river basins to discuss implications on hydrological changes and land degradation. The areal coverage of drylands could increase by an additional 7% of the global land surface by 2100 under high end climate change. At a 4°C warmer world above pre-industrial, 11.2% of global land area is projected to shift towards drier types and 4.24% to wetter. At the same level of warming the number of humans projected to live in drylands varies between 3.3 and 5.2 billion, depending on the socioeconomic developments. By keeping global warming levels to 1.5°C, up to 1.9 billion people could avoid living in drylands compared to a 4°C warmer world of low environmental concern.

RevDate: 2018-11-28

Dietl GP, Nagel-Myers J, RB Aronson (2018)

Indirect effects of climate change altered the cannibalistic behaviour of shell-drilling gastropods in Antarctica during the Eocene.

Royal Society open science, 5(10):181446 pii:rsos181446.

The fossil record from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, provides a record of biotic response to the onset of global climatic cooling during the Eocene. Using drilling traces-small, round holes preserved on prey shells-we examined the effect of a cooling pulse 41 Ma on the cannibalistic behaviour of predatory naticid gastropods. We predicted that cannibalistic attacks would decline in response to the cooling climate, reflecting reduced activity levels, energy requirements and constraints on the chemically aided drilling process of the naticids. Surprisingly, however, cannibalism frequencies did not change. This counterintuitive result is best explained by a sharp reduction in durophagous (shell-crushing) predation in shallow-benthic communities in Antarctica that also occurred as the climate cooled. Reduced durophagous predation may have created a less-risky environment for foraging naticids, stimulating cannibalistic behaviour. The change in the top-down control exerted by shell-crushing predators on naticids may have counteracted the direct, negative effects of declining temperatures on the predatory performance of naticids. Our results suggest that the long-term consequences of climate change cannot be predicted solely from its direct effects on predation, because the temperature can have large indirect effects on consumer-resource interactions, especially where risk-effects dominate.

RevDate: 2018-11-28

Terblanche-Greeff AC, Dokken JV, van Niekerk D, et al (2018)

Cultural beliefs of time orientation and social self-construal: Influences on climate change adaptation.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 10(1):510 pii:JAMBA-10-510.

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges humankind faces and adaptive behaviour is an imperative response to such change. Culture and the resulting worldview are determinants of behaviour and eminent cultural beliefs are that of time orientation (TO) and social self-construal (SSC). To date, no research focuses on these beliefs from an indigenous South African perspective or the manner in which it may subsequently affect a community's adaptation towards climate change. Q-methodology was used to study perspectives and beliefs in three peri-urban communities in South Africa and to investigate the interrelation between themes such as TO, SSC, climate change awareness and climate change causality. It became apparent that the communities are aware of climate change, yet little to no efforts are currently being made to adapt to climatic change. This absence of motivation to adapt may be attributed to limited risk perception and cultural beliefs of TO and SSC. This study aims to contribute to the understanding of cultural beliefs and its impact on climate change adaptation behaviour in the South African context. It is concluded that TO and SSC from an indigenous South African perspective influence community adaptation to climate change.

RevDate: 2018-11-28

Schuman S, Dokken JV, van Niekerk D, et al (2018)

Religious beliefs and climate change adaptation: A study of three rural South African communities.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 10(1):509 pii:JAMBA-10-509.

This article argues that religious beliefs significantly influence a community's understanding and experience of climate change adaptation, indicating the need for an inclusion of such information in climate change adaptation education. Data were collected using the Q-method, whereby recurring statements were identified from semi-structured interviews with participants from three rural communities in the North-West province of South Africa: Ikageng, Ventersdorp and Jouberton. The research found that community members who regard themselves as religious (overall of the Christian faith) fall under two groups: the religious determinists or fatalists, who see climate as a natural process that is governed by God, and religious participants who deny this 'naturalness' and acknowledge humans' impact on the climate.

RevDate: 2018-11-28

Dumic I, E Severnini (2018)

"Ticking Bomb": The Impact of Climate Change on the Incidence of Lyme Disease.

The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale, 2018:5719081.

Lyme disease (LD) is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. It is caused by Borrelia burgdorferi and transmitted to humans by blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis. The life cycle of the LD vector, I. scapularis, usually takes two to three years to complete and goes through three stages, all of which are dependent on environmental factors. Increases in daily average temperatures, a manifestation of climate change, might have contributed to an increase in tick abundance via higher rates of tick survival. Additionally, these environmental changes might have contributed to better host availability, which is necessary for tick feeding and life cycle completion. In fact, it has been shown that both tick activity and survival depend on temperature and humidity. In this study, we have examined the relationship between those climatic variables and the reported incidence of LD in 15 states that contribute to more than 95% of reported cases within the Unites States. Using fixed effects analysis for a panel of 468 U.S. counties from those high-incidence states with annual data available for the period 2000-2016, we have found sizable impacts of temperature on the incidence of LD. Those impacts can be described approximately by an inverted U-shaped relationship, consistent with patterns of tick survival and host-seeking behavior. Assuming a 2°C increase in annual average temperature-in line with mid-century (2036-2065) projections from the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA4)-we have predicted that the number of LD cases in the United States will increase by over 20 percent in the coming decades. These findings may help improving preparedness and response by clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers, as well as raising public awareness of the importance of being cautious when engaging in outdoor activities.

RevDate: 2018-11-26

Lu X, Lu Y, Chen D, et al (2019)

Climate change induced eutrophication of cold-water lake in an ecologically fragile nature reserve.

Journal of environmental sciences (China), 75:359-369.

Aquatic ecosystem sustainability around the globe is facing crucial challenges because of increasing anthropogenic and natural disturbances. In this study, the Tianchi Lake, a typical cold-water lake and a UNESCO/MAB (Man and Biosphere) nature reserve located in high latitude and elevation with the relatively low intensity of human activity was chosen as a system to examine the linkages between climate change and eutrophication. As a part of the UNESCO Bogda Man and Biosphere Reserve, Tianchi Lake has been well preserved for prevention from human intervention, but why has it been infected with eutrophication recent years? Our results show that climate change played a significant role in the eutrophication in the Tianchi Lake. Increased temperature, changed precipitation pattern and wind-induced hydrodynamic fluctuations in the summer season were suggested to make a major contribution to the accelerated eutrophication. The results also showed that the local temperature and precipitation changes were closely linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which opens the door for the method to be applied in other regions without local climatic information. This study suggests that there is an urgent need to take into consideration of climate change adaptation into the conservation and management of cold-water lakes globally.

RevDate: 2018-11-30

Austin SE, Ford JD, Berrang-Ford L, et al (2018)

Enabling local public health adaptation to climate change.

Social science & medicine (1982), 220:236-244 pii:S0277-9536(18)30636-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Local public health authorities often lack the capacity to adapt to climate change, despite being on the 'front lines' of climate impacts. Upper-level governments are well positioned to create an enabling environment for adaptation and build local public health authorities' capacity, yet adaptation literature has not specified how upper-level governments can build local-level adaptive capacity. In this paper we examine how federal and regional governments can contribute to enabling and supporting public health adaptation to climate change at the local level in federal systems. We outline the local level's self-assessed adaptive capacity for public health adaptation in Canadian and German comparative case studies, in terms of funding, knowledge and skills, organizations, and prioritization, drawing upon 30 semi-structured interviews. Based on interviewees' recommendations and complemented by scientific literature, we develop a set of practical measures that could enable or support local-level public health adaptation. We find that adaptive capacity varies widely between local public health authorities, but most report having insufficient funding and staff for adaptation activities. We propose 10 specific measures upper-level governments can take to build local public health authorities' capacity for adaptation, under the interrelated target areas of: building financial capital; developing and disseminating usable knowledge; collaborating and coordinating for shared knowledge; and claiming leadership. Federal and regional governments have an important role to play in enabling local-level public health adaptation, and have many instruments available to them to fulfill that role. Selecting and implementing measures to enable local public health authorities' adaptive capacity will require tailoring to, and consideration, of the local context and needs.

RevDate: 2018-11-30

Thomas P, U Büntgen (2018)

A risk assessment of Europe's black truffle sector under predicted climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 655:27-34 pii:S0048-9697(18)34609-6 [Epub ahead of print].

The black truffle (Tuber melanosporum) is a highly revered culinary icon species that grows symbiotically with its host trees across several parts of southern Europe. Where harvested under natural or cultivated conditions, truffles can have a significant socioeconomic impact and may even form a key component of cultural identity. Although some aspects of truffle biology and ecology have been elucidated recently, the role of abiotic, environmental and climatic factors in the production and maturation of their fruitbodies is still largely unknown. Based on 36-year-long, continuous records of Mediterranean truffle yield, we demonstrate that decreased summer precipitation together with increased summer temperatures significantly reduce the fungus' subsequent winter harvest. Using state-of-the-art climate model projections, we predict that a significant decline of 78-100% in southern European truffle production is likely to occur between 2071 and 2100. The additional threats of forecasted heatwaves, forest fires, pest and disease outbreaks are discussed along with socioeconomic and ecological consequences of a warmer and dryer future climate. Our results emphasize the need for unravelling the direct and indirect effects of climate change on Europe's truffle sector and underline the importance of conservation initiatives at local to international scales.

RevDate: 2018-11-22

Zhou G, Luo Q, Chen Y, et al (2018)

Effects of livestock grazing on grassland carbon storage and release override impacts associated with global climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Predicting future carbon (C) dynamics in grassland ecosystems requires knowledge of how grazing and global climate change (e.g., warming, elevated CO2 , increased precipitation, drought and N fertilization) interact to influence C storage and release. Here, we synthesized data from 223 grassland studies to quantify the individual and interactive effects of herbivores and climate change on ecosystem C pools and soil respiration (Rs). Our results showed that grazing overrode global climate change factors in regulating grassland C storage and release (i.e., Rs). Specifically, grazing significantly decreased aboveground plant C pool (APCP), belowground plant C pool (BPCP), soil C pool (SCP), and Rs by 19.1%, 6.4%, 3.1%, and 4.6%, respectively, while overall effects of all global climate change factors increased APCP, BPCP and Rs by 6.5%, 15.3%, and 3.4% but had no significant effect on SCP. However, the combined effects of grazing with global climate change factors also significantly decreased APCP, SCP and Rs by 4.0%, 4.7% and 2.7%, respectively, but had no effect on BPCP. Most of the interactions between grazing and global climate change factors on APCP, BPCP, SCP and Rs were additive instead of synergistic or antagonistic. Our findings highlight the dominant effects of grazing on C storage and Rs when compared with the suite of global climate change factors. Therefore, incorporating the dominant effect of herbivore grazing into Earth System Models is necessary to accurately predict climate-grassland feedbacks in the Anthropocene. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-11-25

Elayadeth-Meethal M, Thazhathu Veettil A, Maloney SK, et al (2018)

Size does matter: Parallel evolution of adaptive thermal tolerance and body size facilitates adaptation to climate change in domestic cattle.

Ecology and evolution, 8(21):10608-10620 pii:ECE34550.

The adaptive potential of livestock under a warming climate is increasingly relevant in relation to the growing pressure of global food security. Studies on heat tolerance demonstrate the interplay of adaptation and acclimatization in functional traits, for example, a reduction in body size and enhanced tolerance in response to a warming climate. However, current lack of understanding of functional traits and phylogenetic history among phenotypically distinct populations constrains predictions of climate change impact. Here, we demonstrate evidence of parallel evolution in adaptive tolerance to heat stress in dwarf cattle breeds (DCB, Bos taurus indicus) and compare their thermoregulatory responses with those in standard size cattle breeds (SCB, crossbred, Bos taurus indicus × Bos taurus taurus). We measured vital physiological, hematological, biochemical, and gene expression changes in DCB and SCB and compared the molecular phylogeny using mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) analysis. Our results show that SCB can acclimatize in the short term to higher temperatures but reach their tolerance limit under prevailing tropical conditions, while DCB is adapted to the warmer climate. Increased hemoglobin concentration, reduced cellular size, and smaller body size enhance thermal tolerance. Mitogenome analysis revealed that different lineages of DCB have evolved reduced size independently, as a parallel adaptation to heat stress. The results illustrate mechanistic ways of dwarfing, body size-dependent tolerance, and differential fitness in a large mammal species under harsh field conditions, providing a background for comparing similar populations during global climate change. These demonstrate the value of studies combining functional, physiological, and evolutionary approaches to delineate adaptive potential and plasticity in domestic species. We thus highlight the value of locally adapted breeds as a reservoir of genetic variation contributing to the global domestic genetic resource pool that will become increasingly important for livestock production systems under a warming climate.

RevDate: 2018-11-29

Wood JR, Díaz FP, Latorre C, et al (2018)

Plant pathogen responses to Late Pleistocene and Holocene climate change in the central Atacama Desert, Chile.

Scientific reports, 8(1):17208 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-35299-2.

Future climate change has the potential to alter the distribution and prevalence of plant pathogens, which may have significant implications for both agricultural crops and natural plant communities. However, there are few long-term datasets against which modelled predictions of pathogen responses to climate change can be tested. Here, we use 18S metabarcoding of 28 rodent middens (solidified deposits of rodent coprolites and nesting material) from the Central Atacama, spanning the last ca. 49 ka, to provide the first long-term late Quaternary record of change in plant pathogen communities in response to changing climate. Plant pathogen richness was significantly greater in middens deposited during the Central Andean Pluvial Event (CAPE); a period of increased precipitation between 17.5-8.5 ka. Moreover, the occurrence frequency of Pucciniaceae (rust fungi) was significantly greater during the CAPE, and the highest relative abundances for five additional potentially pathogenic taxa also occurred during this period. The results demonstrate the promising potential for ancient DNA analysis of late Quaternary samples to reveal insights into how plant pathogens responded to past climatic and environmental change, which could help predict how pathogens may responded to future change.

RevDate: 2018-11-22

Symonds ME, Farhat G, Aldiss P, et al (2018)

Brown adipose tissue and glucose homeostasis - the link between climate change and the global rise in obesity and diabetes.

Adipocyte [Epub ahead of print].

There is increasing evidence that the global rise in temperature is contributing to the onset of diabetes, which could be mediated by a concomitant reduction in brown fat activity. Brown (and beige) fat are characterised as possessing a unique mitochondrial protein uncoupling protein (UCP)1 that when activated can rapidly generate large amounts of heat. Primary environmental stimuli of UCP1 include cold-exposure and diet, leading to increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system and large amounts of lipid and glucose being oxidised by brown fat. The exact contribution remains controversial, although recent studies indicate that the amount of brown and beige fat in adult humans has been greatly underestimated. We therefore review the potential mechanisms by which glucose could be utilised within brown and beige fat in adult humans and the extent to which these are sensitive to temperature and diet. This includes the potential contribution from the peridroplet and cytoplasmic mitochondrial sub-fractions recently identified in brown fat, and whether a proportion of glucose oxidation could be UCP1-independent. It is thus predicted that as new methods are developed to assess glucose metabolism by brown fat, a more accurate determination of the thermogenic and non-thermogenic functions could be feasible in humans.

RevDate: 2018-11-26
CmpDate: 2018-11-26

Li Y, Tao H, Su B, et al (2019)

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on winter snow depth in Central Asia.

The Science of the total environment, 651(Pt 2):2866-2873.

Snow depth plays an essential role in the water and energy balance of the land surface. It is of special importance in arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. Owing to the limited availability of field observations, the spatial and temporal variations of snow depth are still poorly known. Using the Japanese 55-year (JRA-55) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis snow depth products, we considered four global climate models (GCMs) applied in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), examining how they represent snow depth in Central Asia during the period 1986-2005 in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. We also investigated changes of winter (January-March) snow depth in Central Asia, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Finally, the joint probabilistic behavior of winter temperature and precipitation at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming are investigated using the kernel density estimator (KDE). The result shows that the snow depth climatology of Central Asia is generally well simulated in both spatial pattern and temporal (inter-annual and inter-seasonal) pattern. All models approximately simulate the winter maximum and the summer minimum values of snow depth but tend to overestimate the amplitude during October-December. Only the trend in HadGEM2-ES matches fairly well to the JRA-55 reanalysis snow depth. When comparing the projections of spatial distribution of winter snow depth, distinctive spatial pattern is noted at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, when the snow depth is shown to increase in northeastern and to decrease in midwestern regions of Central Asia. According to the joint probability distributions of precipitation and temperature, Central Asia will tend to experience a warmer and wetter winter at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, which can be associated with an increase in snow depth in the northeastern regions.

RevDate: 2018-11-26
CmpDate: 2018-11-26

Liu Z, Yang Y, He C, et al (2019)

Climate change will constrain the rapid urban expansion in drylands: A scenario analysis with the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban model.

The Science of the total environment, 651(Pt 2):2772-2786.

Evaluation of climate change impacts (CCIs) on urban expansion is important to improving the urban sustainability in drylands. Taking the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) as an example, this study evaluates potential CCIs on urban expansion in 2015-2050. First, we set up six climate change scenarios (CCSs) based on the simulated results of global climate model and regional climate model under different representative concentration pathways. Then, we simulate regional urban expansion under the different CCSs using the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. We find that climate change will be a key factor that affects urban expansion in this region. The urban land affected by climate change in the entire region will increase from 20.24-26.48 km2 (2020) to 119.71-339.26 km2 (2050), an increase of 4.91-11.81 times. The CCIs on urban expansion will be the most significant in the mid-western region. In 2050, the urban land potentially affected by climate change will be 98.70-213.88 km2, which is 42.26%-134.12% of the urban land in the entire region. To improve urban sustainability in the APTZNC, effective measures must be adopted to mitigate and adapt to CCIs on urban expansion.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Reid CE, MM Maestas (2018)

Wildfire smoke exposure under climate change: impact on respiratory health of affected communities.

Current opinion in pulmonary medicine [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this review, we describe the current status of the literature regarding respiratory health related to wildfire smoke exposure, anticipated future impacts under a changing climate, and strategies to reduce respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke.

RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings confirm associations between wildfire smoke exposure and respiratory health outcomes, with the clearest evidence for exacerbations of asthma. Although previous evidence showed a clear association between wildfire smoke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, findings from recent studies are more mixed. Current evidence in support of an association between respiratory infections and wildfire smoke exposure is also mixed. Only one study has investigated long-term respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke, and few studies have estimated future health impacts of wildfires under likely climate change scenarios.

SUMMARY: Wildfire activity has been increasing over the past several decades and is likely to continue to do so as climate change progresses, which, combined with a growing population, means that population exposure to and respiratory health impacts of wildfire smoke is likely to grow in the future. More research is needed to understand which population subgroups are most vulnerable to wildfire smoke exposure and the long-term respiratory health impacts of these high pollution events.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Dennis S, D Fisher (2018)

Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: The Next 50 Years.

Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore, 47(10):401-404.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Liu C, Huo HL, Tian LM, et al (2018)

[Potential geographical distribution of Pyrus calleryana under different climate change scena-rios based on the MaxEnt model].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 29(11):3696-3704.

To resovle the problems of in-situ conservation and resource utilization of Pyrus caller-yana, maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographic information system (GIS) were used to predict the global ecological suitable region of P. calleryana in different climate scenarios based on 236 distribution data and 19 ecological factors. The results showed that the ecological suitable regions of P. calleryana were mainly concentrated in North America, Asia and other regions, with a total area of 1.6×107 km2. In China, the regions with high ecological suitability were Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces. The main factors affecting the geographical distribution of P. calleryana were mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, followed by the seasonality of temperature. The model simulations indicated that P. calleryana would have different suitable habitat areas and marginally suitable habitat areas in different climate scenarios. In terms of the spatial distribution of the potential habitat area, both the distributional range and the center of distribution of suitable and marginally suitable habitat area would shift from east to west. The suitable habitat area in North America and marginally suitable habitat areas in Europe would increase rapidly.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Liu M, Mao ZJ, Li Y, et al (2018)

[Response of radial growth to climate change in Pinus koraiensis with different diameter classes].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 29(11):3530-3540.

Dendrochronological techniques were used to study the response of radial growth of Pinus koraiensis with different diameter classes to climate change throughout the natural range of broad-leaved Korean pine forests, including Baishilazi Nature Reserve (40.9° N), Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve (42.4° N), Liangshui Nature Reserve (47.2° N), and Shengshan Nature Reserve (49.4° N). We investigated the similarities and differences of growth responses of different diameter classes to climate factors and clarified the key climate factors affecting the growth of P. koraiensis at different latitude sites. We explored the dynamic changes of the radial growth of P. koraiensis from the latitudinal gradient over the past 40 years. The results showed many similarities in the response of two diameter classes to local climate factors. Small diameter (diameter at breast height of 10-20 cm) trees were more sensitive to the changes of average minimum temperature of the current growing season and the meteorological factors of the previous year, whereas large diameter (diameter at breast height >40 cm) trees were more sensitive to the changes of average maximum temperature and average relative humidity of the current growing season. The key meteorological factors that affecting radial growth of P. koraiensis differed along the latitude gradient. In Baishilazi Nature Reserve, the southernmost plot, the key climate factors were the average maximum temperature and the average maximum temperature in the current growing season. In Shengshan Nature Reserve, the northernmost sample plot, the key climate factors were low temperature factors, such as the minimum temperature in all seasons, the average maximum temperature in winter, the average temperature of all seasons except for the end of previous growing season and the current growing season. The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in the current growth season and the end of the current growth season and the precipitation in the current growth season were the key climate factors in Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve. The average temperature of the current growing season was the key climate factor of Liangshui Nature Reserve. In recent four decades, with the rising of temperature, the radial growth of P. koraiensis of two diameter classes significantly decreased in the southernmost point, significantly increased in the northernmost point, and had no significant variation in middle latitudes.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Ahmed N, Thompson S, M Glaser (2018)

Global Aquaculture Productivity, Environmental Sustainability, and Climate Change Adaptability.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-018-1117-3 [Epub ahead of print].

To meet the demand for food from a growing global population, aquaculture production is under great pressure to increase as capture fisheries have stagnated. However, aquaculture has raised a range of environmental concerns, and further increases in aquaculture production will face widespread environmental challenges. The effects of climate change will pose a further threat to global aquaculture production. Aquaculture is often at risk from a combination of climatic variables, including cyclone, drought, flood, global warming, ocean acidification, rainfall variation, salinity, and sea level rise. For aquaculture growth to be sustainable its environmental impacts must reduce significantly. Adaptation to climate change is also needed to produce more fish without environmental impacts. Some adaptation strategies including integrated aquaculture, recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS), and the expansion of seafood farming could increase aquaculture productivity, environmental sustainability, and climate change adaptability.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Campoy JA, Darbyshire R, Dirlewanger E, et al (2018)

Yield potential definition of the chilling requirement reveals likely underestimation of the risk of climate change on winter chill accumulation.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-018-1649-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Evaluation of chilling requirements of cultivars of temperate fruit trees provides key information to assess regional suitability, according to winter chill, for both industry expansion and ongoing profitability as climate change progresses. Traditional methods for calculating chilling requirements use climate-controlled chambers and define chilling requirements (CR) using a fixed bud burst percentage, usually close to 50% (CR-50%). However, this CR-50% definition may estimate chilling requirements that lead to flowering percentages that are lower than required for orchards to be commercially viable. We used sweet cherry to analyse the traditional method for calculating chilling requirements (CR-50%) and compared the results with a more restrictive method, where the chilling requirement was defined by a 90% bud break level (CRm-90%). For sweet cherry, this higher requirement of flowering success (90% as opposed to 50%) better represents grower production needs as a greater number of flowers leads to greater potential yield. To investigate the future risk of insufficient chill based on alternate calculations of the chilling requirement, climate projections of winter chill suitability across Europe were calculated using CR-50% and CRm-90%. Regional suitability across the landscape was highly dependent on the method used to define chilling requirements, and differences were found for both cold and mild winter areas. Our results suggest that bud break percentage levels used in the assessment of chilling requirements for sweet cherry influence production risks of current and future production areas. The use of traditional methods to determine chilling requirements can result in an underestimation of productivity chilling requirements for tree crops like sweet cherry which rely on a high conversion of flowers to mature fruit to obtain profitable yields. This underestimation may have negative consequences for the fruit industry as climate change advances with climate risk underestimated.

RevDate: 2018-11-30

Nunfam VF, Van Etten EJ, Oosthuizen J, et al (2018)

Climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers: Perspectives of supervisors and other stakeholders in Ghana.

Environmental research, 169:147-155 pii:S0013-9351(18)30577-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Increasing air temperatures as a result of climate change are worsening the impact of heat exposure on working populations, including mining workers, who are at risk of suffering heat-related illnesses, injury and death. However, inadequate awareness of climate change-related occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies have been shown to render occupational heat stress management ineffective. A concurrent mixed-methods approach was used to assess the perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers among supervisory personnel and other stakeholders in Ghana. Questionnaires and interviews were used to elicit data from 19 respondents. Data were processed and interpreted using descriptive statistics, chi-square and Fisher's exact tests, and thematic analysis. Supervisors' climate change risks perception was adequate, and their concern about workplace heat exposure risks was moderate. Mining workers' occupational heat stress risks experiences were linked to heat-related illness and minor injuries. Mining workers' adaptation strategies included water intake, use of cooling mechanisms, work-break practices, and clothing use. The related differences in job experience in the distribution of climate change risk perception and occupational heat stress risk experiences, and the difference in educational attainment in the distribution of adaptation strategies of occupational heat stress were significant (p < 0.05). Hence, an effective workplace heat management policy requires adequate understanding of occupational heat stress risks and adaptation policies and continued education and training for mining workers.

RevDate: 2018-11-20

Cochand F, Therrien R, JM Lemieux (2018)

Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Snow-Influenced Catchment.

Ground water [Epub ahead of print].

The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been intensively studied for different regions and climates across the world. In regions where winter processes such as snowfall and melting play a significant role, anticipated changes in temperature might significantly affect hydrological systems. To address this impact, modifications have been made to the fully-integrated surface-subsurface flow model HydroGeoSphere (HGS) to allow the simulation of snow accumulation and melting. The modified HGS model was used to assess the potential impact of climate change on surface and subsurface flow in the Saint-Charles River catchment, Quebec (Canada) for the period 2070-2100. The model was first developed and calibrated to reproduce observed streamflow and hydraulic heads for current climate conditions. The calibrated model was then used with three different climate scenarios to simulate surface flow and groundwater dynamics of the 2070-2100 period. Winter stream discharges are predicted to increase by about 80%, 120%, and 150% for the three scenarios due to warmer winters, leading to more liquid precipitation and more snowmelt. Conversely, the summer stream discharges are predicted to fall by about 10%, 15%, and 20% due to an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the annual mean stream discharge should remain stable (+/- 0.1 m3 /s). The predicted increase in hydraulic heads in winter may reach 15 m, and the maximum decrease in summer may reach 3 m. Simulations show that winter processes play a key role in the seasonal modifications anticipated for surface and subsurface flow dynamics.

RevDate: 2018-11-23

Doughty CE, Santos-Andrade PE, Shenkin A, et al (2018)

Tropical forest leaves may darken in response to climate change.

Nature ecology & evolution, 2(12):1918-1924.

Tropical forest leaf albedo (reflectance) greatly impacts how much energy the planet absorbs; however; little is known about how it might be impacted by climate change. Here, we measure leaf traits and leaf albedo at ten 1-ha plots along a 3,200-m elevation gradient in Peru. Leaf mass per area (LMA) decreased with warmer temperatures along the elevation gradient; the distribution of LMA was positively skewed at all sites indicating a shift in LMA towards a warmer climate and future reduced tropical LMA. Reduced LMA was significantly (P < 0.0001) correlated with reduced leaf near-infrared (NIR) albedo; community-weighted mean NIR albedo significantly (P < 0.01) decreased as temperature increased. A potential future 2 °C increase in tropical temperatures could reduce lowland tropical leaf LMA by 6-7 g m-2 (5-6%) and reduce leaf NIR albedo by 0.0015-0.002 units. Reduced NIR albedo means that leaves are darker and absorb more of the Sun's energy. Climate simulations indicate this increased absorbed energy will warm tropical forests more at high CO2 conditions with proportionately more energy going towards heating and less towards evapotranspiration and cloud formation.

RevDate: 2018-11-20

MacLean HJ, Nielsen ME, Kingsolver JG, et al (2018)

Using museum specimens to track morphological shifts through climate change.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 374(1763): pii:rstb.2017.0404.

Museum specimens offer a largely untapped resource for detecting morphological shifts in response to climate change. However, morphological shifts can be obscured by shifts in phenology or distribution or sampling biases. Additionally, interpreting phenotypic shifts requires distinguishing whether they result from plastic or genetic changes. Previous studies using collections have documented consistent historical size changes, but the limited studies of other morphological traits have often failed to support, or even test, hypotheses. We explore the potential of collections by investigating shifts in the functionally significant coloration of a montane butterfly, Colias meadii, over the past 60 years within three North American geographical regions. We find declines in ventral wing melanism, which correspond to reduced absorption of solar radiation and thus reduced risk of overheating, in two regions. However, contrary to expected responses to climate warming, we find melanism increases in the most thoroughly sampled region. Relationships among temperature, phenology and morphology vary across years and complicate the distinction between plastic and genetic responses. Differences in these relationships may account for the differing morphological shifts among regions. Our findings highlight the promise of using museum specimens to test mechanistic hypotheses for shifts in functional traits, which is essential for deciphering interacting responses to climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

RevDate: 2018-11-29

Sergi C, Serra N, Colomba C, et al (2018)

Tuberculosis evolution and climate change: How much work is ahead?.

RevDate: 2018-11-19

Shortridge J, JS Camp (2018)

Addressing Climate Change as an Emerging Risk to Infrastructure Systems.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Epub ahead of print].

The consequences that climate change could have on infrastructure systems are potentially severe but highly uncertain. This should make risk analysis a natural framework for climate adaptation in infrastructure systems. However, many aspects of climate change, such as weak background knowledge and societal controversy, make it an emerging risk where traditional approaches for risk assessment and management cannot be confidently employed. A number of research developments aimed at addressing these issues have emerged in recent years, such as the development of probabilistic climate projections, climate services, and robust decision frameworks. However, additional research is needed to improve the suitability of these methods for infrastructure planning. In this perspective, we outline some of the challenges in addressing climate change risks to infrastructure and summarize new developments aimed at meeting these challenges. We end by highlighting needs for future research, many of which could be well-served by expertise within the risk analysis community.

RevDate: 2018-11-19

Stinziano JR, Bauerle WL, DA Way (2018)

Modelled net carbon gain responses to climate change in boreal trees: impacts of photosynthetic parameter selection and acclimation.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Boreal forests are crucial in regulating global vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks, but the impact of climate change on boreal tree carbon fluxes is still unclear. Given the sensitivity of global vegetation models to photosynthetic and respiration parameters, we determined how predictions of net carbon gain (C-gain) respond to variation in these parameters using a stand-level model (MAESTRA). We also modelled how thermal acclimation of photosynthetic and respiratory temperature sensitivity alters predicted net C-gain responses to climate change. We modelled net C-gain of seven common boreal tree species under eight climate scenarios across a latitudinal gradient to capture a range of seasonal temperature conditions. Physiological parameter values were taken from the literature together with different approaches for thermally acclimating photosynthesis and respiration. At high latitudes, net C-gain was stimulated up to 400% by elevated temperatures and CO2 in the autumn but suppressed at the lowest latitudes during mid-summer under climate scenarios that included warming. Modelled net C-gain was more sensitive to photosynthetic capacity parameters (Vcmax , Jmax , Arrhenius temperature response parameters, and the ratio of Jmax to Vcmax) than stomatal conductance or respiration parameters. The effect of photosynthetic thermal acclimation depended on the temperatures where it was applied: acclimation reduced net C-gain by 10-15% within the temperature range where the equations were derived but decreased net C-gain by 175% at temperatures outside this range. Thermal acclimation of respiration had small, but positive, impacts on net C-gain. We show that model simulations are highly sensitive to variation in photosynthetic parameters and highlight the need to better understand the mechanisms and drivers underlying this variability (e.g. whether variability is environmentally and/or biologically driven) for further model improvement. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Yang Y, Halbritter AH, Klanderud K, et al (2018)

Transplants, Open Top Chambers (OTCs) and Gradient Studies Ask Different Questions in Climate Change Effects Studies.

Frontiers in plant science, 9:1574.

Long-term monitoring, space-for-time substitutions along gradients, and in situ temperature manipulations are common approaches to understand effects of climate change on alpine and arctic plant communities. Although general patterns emerge from studies using different approaches, there are also some inconsistencies. To provide better estimates of plant community responses to future warming across a range of environments, there have been repeated calls for integrating different approaches within single studies. Thus, to examine how different methods in climate change effect studies may ask different questions, we combined three climate warming approaches in a single study in the Hengduan Mountains of southwestern China. We monitored plant communities along an elevation gradient using the space-for-time approach, and conducted warming experiments using open top chambers (OTCs) and plant community transplantation toward warmer climates along the same gradient. Plant species richness and abundances were monitored over 5 years addressing two questions: (1) how do plant communities respond to the different climate warming approaches? (2) how can the combined approaches improve predictions of plant community responses to climate change? The general trend across all three approaches was decreased species richness with climate warming at low elevations. This suggests increased competition from immigrating lowland species, and/or from the species already growing inside the plots, as indicated by increased biomass, vegetation height or proportion of graminoids. At the coldest sites, species richness decreased in OTCs and along the gradient, but increased in the transplants, suggesting that plant communities in colder climates are more open to invasion from lowland species, with slow species loss. This was only detected in the transplants, showing that different approaches, may yield different results. Whereas OTCs may constrain immigration of new species, transplanted communities are rapidly exposed to new neighbors that can easily colonize the small plots. Thus, different approaches ask slightly different questions, in particular regarding indirect climate change effects, such as biotic interactions. To better understand both direct and indirect effects of climate change on plant communities, we need to combine approaches in future studies, and if novel interactions are of particular interest, transplants may be a better approach than OTCs.

RevDate: 2018-11-18

van Kerkhoff L, Munera C, Dudley N, et al (2018)

Towards future-oriented conservation: Managing protected areas in an era of climate change.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-018-1121-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Management of protected areas must adapt to climate impacts, and prepare for ongoing ecological transformation. Future-Proofing Conservation is a dialogue-based, multi-stakeholder learning process that supports conservation managers to consider the implications of climate change for governance and management. It takes participants through a series of conceptual transitions to identify new management options that are robust to a range of possible biophysical futures, and steps that they can take now to prepare for ecological transformation. We outline the Future-Proofing Conservation process, and demonstrate its application in a pilot programme in Colombia. This process can be applied and adapted to a wide range of climate adaptation contexts, to support practitioners in developing positive ways forward for management and decision-making. By acknowledging scientific uncertainty, considering social values, and rethinking the rules that shape conservation governance, participants can identify new strategies towards "future-oriented conservation" over the long term.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Warnatzsch EA, DS Reay (2018)

Temperature and precipitation change in Malawi: Evaluation of CORDEX-Africa climate simulations for climate change impact assessments and adaptation planning.

The Science of the total environment, 654:378-392 pii:S0048-9697(18)34450-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Malawi is highlighted as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the effects of climate change. The large uncertainty around future climate change in the region remains a barrier to adaptation planning. Despite this high potential vulnerability, relatively little research has gone into determining how well available models represent this country's climate. This work therefore evaluates the ability of existing General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to hindcast climatic variables in Malawi at a resolution appropriate for climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning. We focus on monthly precipitation rate, and mean, maximum and minimum surface air temperature. This assessment compares available observed datasets against the outputs of six ERA-interim driven RCMs and 21 GCM-driven RCMs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative, and the 11 GCMs which form their boundary conditions. It was found that the performance of the RCMs is highly influenced by their boundary conditions. None of the individual or ensemble RCMs or GCMs assessed in this paper correlate well with the observed datasets for any of the assessed climatic variables. While, they do simulate the trending change in temperature variables well, the simulated outputs for precipitation are highly divergent. Based on these findings we suggest that either the ensemble RCMs or ensemble GCMs would be suitable for understanding projected temperature trends, with the RCMs providing better spatial resolution. However, none of the assessed models provide certainty over future precipitation trends in Malawi. As such we suggest that impact assessments and adaptation plans in Malawi will need to be designed and tested against a range of future precipitation scenarios. To improve modelling for Malawi it is recommended that regional climate models be improved for higher spatial resolution and inclusion of the impacts from large water bodies, including Lake Malawi.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Hălbac-Cotoară-Zamfir R, Keesstra S, Z Kalantari (2018)

The impact of political, socio-economic and cultural factors on implementing environment friendly techniques for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation in Romania.

The Science of the total environment, 654:418-429 pii:S0048-9697(18)34517-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Throughout the history of Romania, political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural (traditional) characters have affected the implementation of environment friendly techniques (EFTs) policies. In the context of this paper, EFTs can be defined as solutions for the use of land resources aiming the increasing of goods for meeting the changing human needs and with neutral or positive environmental impact. Changes in the political regime have always had a visible impact on the EFTs issue in Romania. EFTs has gone through several major phases. The political impact on EFTs implementation mainly affected sustainable land management (SLM) and to a small extent, at the end of the communist era and partly during the capitalist period, climate change mitigation. Throughout history, the political factor has dominated and influenced the capacity of the EFTs implementation process in responding to socio-economic stimuli. In addition, quality of life, rural-urban and urban-rural migrations, poverty, education level, and climate change adaptation have had impacts on the status of EFTs according to governance and political reflections. The agrarian reforms from the last two centuries, based on socio-economic demands, have strongly influenced the capacity to implement EFTs both positively and negatively. However, the cultural factor was least affected by political and socio-economic changes as a stability factor in ensuring continued implementation of the EFTs. Currently, there is a strong need to reconsider EFTs as sustainability tools for Romanian agriculture that can cope with climate change and sustainable land management (SLM) demands. This paper presents a brief history of EFTs in Romania and their benefits in achieving SLM equilibrium, describing the impacts of political decisions, socio-economic measures, and cultural features on implementing ETFs policies.

RevDate: 2018-11-20

Sarun S, Ghermandi A, Sheela AM, et al (2018)

Climate change vulnerability in a tropical region based on environmental and socio-economic factors.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 190(12):727 pii:10.1007/s10661-018-7095-3.

The understanding of the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability due to climate change is essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts. We assessed the local dimensions of vulnerability in the tropical state of Kerala, India, using a purposely developed vulnerability index, which accounts for both environmental and socio-economic factors. The large extents of coastal wetlands and lagoons and high concentration of mangrove forests make the state environmentally vulnerable. Low human development index, large population of socially deprived groups, which are dependent on the primary sector, and high population density make the state vulnerable from a socio-economic point of view. The present study investigates climate change vulnerability at the district level in the State of Kerala relying on a purposely developed composite vulnerability index that encompasses both socio-economic and environmental factors. The Kerala coast contains the socio-economically and ecologically most vulnerable regions, as demonstrated by a composite vulnerability index.

RevDate: 2018-11-21

Eekhout J, J de Vente (2018)

Assessing the effectiveness of Sustainable Land Management for large-scale climate change adaptation.

The Science of the total environment, 654:85-93 pii:S0048-9697(18)34250-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change will strongly affect essential ecosystem services, like the provision of freshwater, food production, soil erosion and flood control. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) practices are increasingly promoted to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, but there is lack of evidence at scales most relevant for policymaking. We evaluated the effectiveness of SLM in a large Mediterranean catchment where climate change is projected to significantly reduce water security. We show that the on-site and off-site impacts of climate change are almost entirely reversed by the large-scale implementation of SLM under moderate climate change conditions, characterized by limited reductions in annual precipitation but significant increased precipitation intensity. Under more extreme reductions of annual precipitation, SLM implementation reduces the impacts on water security, but cannot prevent significant increased plant water stress and reduced water availability. Under these conditions, additional adaptation measures are required considering their interactions and trade-offs regarding water security.

RevDate: 2018-11-16

He W, Yang JY, Qian B, et al (2018)

Climate change impacts on crop yield, soil water balance and nitrate leaching in the semiarid and humid regions of Canada.

PloS one, 13(11):e0207370 pii:PONE-D-18-19782.

The impact of climate change on agricultural systems is a major concern as it can have a significant effect on the world food supply. The objective of this study was to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production and nitrate leaching in two distinct climatic zones in Canada. Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was selected for the semiarid regions of Western Canada (Swift Current, SK) and maize (Zea mays L.) was chosen for the more humid regions of central Canada (Woodslee, ON). Climate scenarios were based upon simulations from a Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and crop simulations were conducted using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Compared to the baseline climate scenario, wheat yields increased by 8, 8, 11, 15%, whereas maize yields decreased by 15, 25, 22, 41% under RCP4.5 2050s (2041-2070), RCP4.5 2080s (2071-2100), RCP8.5 2050s and RCP8.5 2080s scenarios, respectively. Annual nitrate leaching increased by 19, 57, 73, 129% at Swift Current and by 84, 117, 208, 317% at Woodslee under the four scenarios, respectively. Adaptation measures suggested that fertilizer N rate for spring wheat should be increased to 80-100 kg N ha-1 to obtain optimal yields although this will result in an additional risk of 5-8 kg N ha-1 nitrate leaching at Swift Current. The fertilizer N rate of 150 kg N ha-1 was found to be suitable for high maize yields at Woodslee. New wheat and maize cultivars with long growing seasons would enable crop growth to match the phenological stage and hence maintain high crop yields to adapt to increased temperatures in the future.

RevDate: 2018-11-16

Wadgymar SM, Mactavish RM, JT Anderson (2018)

Transgenerational and Within-Generation Plasticity in Response to Climate Change: Insights from a Manipulative Field Experiment across an Elevational Gradient.

The American naturalist, 192(6):698-714.

Parental environmental effects-or transgenerational plasticity-can influence an individual's phenotype or fitness yet remain underexplored in the context of global change. Using the perennial self-pollinating plant Boechera stricta, we explored the effects of climate change on transgenerational and within-generation plasticity in dormancy, germination, growth, and survival. We first conducted a snow removal experiment in the field, in which we transplanted 16 families of known origin into three common gardens at different elevations and exposed half of the siblings to contemporary snow dynamics and half to early snow removal. We planted the offspring of these individuals in a factorial manipulation of temperature and water level in the growth chamber and reciprocally transplanted them across all parental environments in the field. The growth chamber experiment revealed that the effects of transgenerational plasticity persist in traits expressed after establishment, even when accounting for parental effects on seed mass. The field experiment showed that transgenerational and within-generation plasticity can interact and that plasticity varies clinally in populations distributed across elevations. These findings demonstrate that transgenerational plasticity can influence fitness-related traits and should be incorporated in studies of biological responses to climate change.

RevDate: 2018-11-16

Douglass-Gallagher E, D Stuart (2018)

Crop Growers' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: A Situated Study of Agriculture in Arizona's Verde Valley.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-018-1114-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change will pose unprecedented challenges for agricultural producers globally, requiring the ability to adapt to new and unpredictable conditions. This study explores the adaptive capacity of crop growers in the Verde Valley, Arizona (US). Rather than examining pre-determined indicators of adaptive capacity, this study adopts a situated framework that examines material conditions, perceptions, and the larger social context. Interviewers used past experiences and future scenarios to allow factors that enhance or constrain adaptive capacity to emerge from the interviews. Findings reveal adaptation is site specific but general measures can be taken to enhance adaptive capacity. Encouraging diversity in crops and water sources, the use of drought and heat tolerant crops, and the use of water conservation practices will likely increase growers' adaptive capacity. In contrast, lack of support from organizations and government programs, lack of diverse crops and sources of water, lack of awareness about climate change, and growers' confidence in their ability to always adapt impairs adaptive capacity. Verde Valley growers will need increased support from local and national organizations to adapt to projected changes. The situated framework applied in this study reveals important insights and could be used to explore adaptive capacity in other agricultural regions.

RevDate: 2018-11-20
CmpDate: 2018-11-20

Klein T, H Hartmann (2018)

Climate change drives tree mortality.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 362(6416):758.

RevDate: 2018-11-15

Hemmer CJ, Emmerich P, Loebermann M, et al (2018)

[Mosquitoes and Ticks: The Influence of Global Warming in the Transmission of Infectious Diseases in Germany].

Deutsche medizinische Wochenschrift (1946), 143(23):1714-1722.

During the last 135 years, the average temperature in Germany has increased by 1.4 °C. By 2050, a further rise by 1.5 °C is expected. This is associated with an increase of precipitation during the winter months. This climate change probably will improve both the growth conditions for mosquitoes and ticks, as well as their ability to transmit infectious diseases. Today, vectors that have not yet been present are invading into Germany. Among them is Aedes albopictus, which transmits Chikungunya, Zika, and Dengue Fever. Also, spreading of autochthonous malaria and West Nile Fever appear possible in Germany. Because of the increased presence of Phlebotomus species, leishmaniasis should be considered as a potential differential diagnosis in unclear hematologic diseases. Among the tick-borne diseases, climate change has already led to increased case numbers of Borreliosis and Tick Borne Encephalitis (TBE), and Crimean Congo Virus is spreading from the Balkan region towards Central Europe. This requires physicians to consider additional differential diagnoses in febrile illnesses.

RevDate: 2018-11-15

Varela MR, Patrício AR, Anderson K, et al (2018)

Assessing climate change associated sea level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones, photogrammetry and a novel GPS system.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change associated sea level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low-cost with low accuracy or high-cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone-based photogrammetry and a low-cost and portable real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic. This methodology is ideal for surveying coastal sites, can be broadly applied to other species and habitats, and is a relevant tool in supporting the development of Specially Protected Areas. Here we applied this method as a case-study to project three SLR scenarios (0.48, 0.63 and 1.20 m) and assess the future vulnerability and viability of a key nesting habitat for sympatric loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at a key rookery in the Mediterranean. We combined the DTM with 5 years of nest survey data describing location and clutch depth, to identify (1) regions with highest nest densities, (2) nest elevation by species and beach, and (3) estimated proportion of nests inundated under each SLR scenario. On average, green turtles nested at higher elevations than loggerheads (1.8 m vs. 1.32 m, respectively). However, because green turtles dig deeper nests than loggerheads (0.76 m vs. 0.50 m, respectively), these were at similar risk of inundation. For a SLR of 1.2 m, we estimated a loss of 67.3% for loggerhead turtle nests and 59.1% for green turtle nests. Existing natural and artificial barriers may affect the ability of these nesting habitats to remain suitable for nesting through beach migration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-11-15

Fadrique B, Báez S, Duque Á, et al (2018)

Widespread but heterogeneous responses of Andean forests to climate change.

Nature pii:10.1038/s41586-018-0715-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming is forcing many species to shift their distributions upward, causing consequent changes in the compositions of species that occur at specific locations. This prediction remains largely untested for tropical trees. Here we show, using a database of nearly 200 Andean forest plot inventories spread across more than 33.5° latitude (from 26.8° S to 7.1° N) and 3,000-m elevation (from 360 to 3,360 m above sea level), that tropical and subtropical tree communities are experiencing directional shifts in composition towards having greater relative abundances of species from lower, warmer elevations. Although this phenomenon of 'thermophilization' is widespread throughout the Andes, the rates of compositional change are not uniform across elevations. The observed heterogeneity in thermophilization rates is probably because of different warming rates and/or the presence of specialized tree communities at ecotones (that is, at the transitions between distinct habitats, such as at the timberline or at the base of the cloud forest). Understanding the factors that determine the directions and rates of compositional changes will enable us to better predict, and potentially mitigate, the effects of climate change on tropical forests.

RevDate: 2018-11-15

Zhao C, Chen J, Du P, et al (2018)

Characteristics of Climate Change and Extreme Weather from 1951 to 2011 in China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(11): pii:ijerph15112540.

It has been demonstrated that climate change is an established fact. A good comprehension of climate and extreme weather variation characteristics on a temporal and a spatial scale is important for adaptation and response. In this work, the characteristics of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather distribution and variation is summarized for a period of 60 years and the seasonal fluctuation of temperature and precipitation is also analyzed. The results illustrate the reduction in daily and annual temperature divergence on both temporal and spatial scales. However, the gaps remain relatively significant. Furthermore, the disparity in daily and annual precipitation are found to be increasing on both temporal and spatial scales. The findings indicate that climate change, to a certain extent, narrowed the temperature gap while widening the precipitation gap on temporal and spatial scales in China.

RevDate: 2018-11-14

Fang J, Lau CKM, Lu Z, et al (2018)

Natural disasters, climate change, and their impact on inclusive wealth in G20 countries.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-018-3634-2 [Epub ahead of print].

This paper uses the 1990-2010 natural disaster and carbon emission data of G20 countries to examine the impact of natural disasters and climate change on the natural capital component of inclusive wealth. Our study shows that climate change and GDP have no positive impacts on the growth of natural capital. By contrast, trade openness and natural disaster frequency contribute to the accumulation of natural capital in G20 countries. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the growth of natural capital and the magnitude of natural disaster. Natural capital growth is not affected very much by small disasters. By contrast, large disasters tend to make the growth of natural capital fall sharply.

RevDate: 2018-11-16

Makate C, Makate M, Mango N, et al (2018)

Increasing resilience of smallholder farmers to climate change through multiple adoption of proven climate-smart agriculture innovations. Lessons from Southern Africa.

Journal of environmental management, 231:858-868 pii:S0301-4797(18)31203-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize, and improved legume varieties are key climate change management strategies for smallholder farmers in southern Africa. Their complementary efforts in adaptation to climate change are sternly important for farm productivity and income. This study evaluates factors explaining individual and multiple adoption of climate change management strategies and their differential impacts on productivity and income using a sample of 1172 smallholder farmers from Malawi and Zimbabwe. The study employs multinomial logistic regression to evaluate factors of individual and multiple adoption and regression adjustment with inverse probability weighting to evaluate impacts of the different adoption regimes on farm productivity and income. The results show that multiple adoption of innovations is mostly explained by access to key resources (credit, income and information), level of education and size of land owned by the farmer. More so, the concurrent adoption of conservation agriculture, stress adapted legume varieties and drought tolerant maize has far greater dividends on productivity and income than when considered individually. However, impacts of multiple adoption of the practices are not entirely uniform across different geographic regions and gender. Results suggest that effective institutional and policy efforts targeted towards reducing resource constraints that inhibit farmers' capacity to adopt complementary climate-smart agriculture packages such as conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize and improved legume varieties must be gender sensitive and context specific.

RevDate: 2018-11-18

Zohner CM, Mo L, SS Renner (2018)

Global warming reduces leaf-out and flowering synchrony among individuals.

eLife, 7: pii:40214.

The temporal overlap of phenological stages, phenological synchrony, crucially influences ecosystem functioning. For flowering, among-individual synchrony influences gene flow. For leaf-out, it affects interactions with herbivores and competing plants. If individuals differ in their reaction to the ongoing change in global climate, this should affect population-level synchrony. Here, we use climate-manipulation experiments, Pan-European long-term (>15 years) observations, and common garden monitoring data on up to 72 woody and herbaceous species to study the effects of increasing temperatures on the extent of leaf-out and flowering synchrony within populations. Warmer temperatures reduce in situ leaf-out and flowering synchrony by up to 55%, and experiments on European beech provide a mechanism for how individual differences in day-length and/or chilling sensitivity may explain this finding. The rapid loss of reproductive and vegetative synchrony in European plants predicts changes in their gene flow and trophic interactions, but community-wide consequences remain largely unknown.

Editorial note: This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).

RevDate: 2018-11-12

Jarić I, Lennox RJ, Kalinkat G, et al (2018)

Susceptibility of European freshwater fish to climate change: species profiling based on life-history and environmental characteristics.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the impacts may alter species spatio-temporal distributions, and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts. To this end, we collated life history traits and climatic niches of 443 European freshwater fish species and compared those identified as susceptible to climate change to those that are considered to be resilient. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in their distribution, life-history and climatic niche, with climate-change susceptible species being distributed within the Mediterranean region, and being characterized by greater threat levels, lesser commercial relevance, lower vulnerability to fishing, smaller body and range size, and warmer thermal envelopes. Based on our results, we establish a list of species of highest priority for further research and monitoring regarding climate change susceptibility within Europe. The presented approach represents a promising tool to efficiently assess large groups of species regarding their susceptibility to climate change and other threats, and to identify research and management priorities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-11-10

Coleman MA, Butcherine P, Kelaher BP, et al (2018)

Climate change does not affect seafood quality of a common targeted fish.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries. In an orthogonal mesocosm experiment, we tested the influence of near-future ocean warming and acidification on the growth, health and seafood quality of a recreationally and economically important fish, yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis). The growth of yellowfin bream significantly increased under near-future temperature conditions (but not acidification), with little change in health (blood glucose and haematocrit) or tissue biochemistry and nutritional properties (fatty acids, lipids, macro-and micronutrients, moisture, ash, and total N). Yellowfin bream appear to be highly resilient to predicted near-future ocean climate change, which might be facilitated by their broad spatio-temporal distribution across habitats and broad diet. Moreover, an increase in growth, but little change in tissue quality, suggests that near-future ocean conditions will benefit fisheries and fishers that target yellowfin bream. The data reiterate the inherent resilience of yellowfin bream as an evolutionary consequence of their euryhaline status in often environmentally challenging habitats, and imply their sustainable and viable fisheries into the future.We contend that widely-distributed species that span large geographic areas and habitats can be "climate-winners" by being resilient to negative direct impacts of near-future oceanic and estuarine climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-11-10

Gao X, Wang A, Zhao Y, et al (2018)

Study on Water Suitability of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau under Climate Change.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(11): pii:ijerph15112504.

With the implementation of the Grain for Green Project, the apple plantation area is increasing in Loess Plateau. However, due to severe water scarcity, the sustainability of apple tree growth is threatened. In this paper, we used meteorological data (1990⁻2013) and forecasted climate data (2019⁻2050) to estimate water demand and establish a water suitability model to study the water balance between available water and water consumption of the apple trees. The results show that: (i) the order of the average water demand of apple plantation in each subarea is Shaanxi Province > Yuncheng area > Gansu Province > Sanmenxia Region, ranging from 500 to 950 mm; (ii) the temporal variability of water suitability from 1990 to 2013 is large, and the higher values are concentrated in the late growth stage of the apple trees and the lower values are concentrated in the early growth stage; (iii) the temporal and spatial distribution of water suitability is relatively stable and even in the Loess Plateau in the period of 2019⁻2050; (iv) the water suitability is mainly affected by effective precipitation and reference evapotranspiration and the reference evapotranspiration is mainly affected by the solar radiation (36%) and average temperature (38%). Furthermore, due to the joint influence of precipitation increases and solar radiation (average temperature) increases, the future water suitability of the apple plantation area in the Loess Plateau is showing a non-significant downward trend under RCP4.5 scenario.

RevDate: 2018-11-13

Op de Hipt F, Diekkrüger B, Steup G, et al (2018)

Modeling the effect of land use and climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical West African catch-ment (Dano, Burkina Faso) using SHETRAN.

The Science of the total environment, 653:431-445 pii:S0048-9697(18)34251-7 [Epub ahead of print].

This study investigates the effect of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate change on catchment hydrology and soil erosion in the Dano catchment in south-western Burkina Faso based on hydrological and soil erosion modeling. The past LULC change is studied using land use maps of the years 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2013. Based on these maps future LULC scenarios were developed for the years 2019, 2025 and 2030. The observed past and modeled future LULC are used to feed SHETRAN, a hydrological and soil erosion model. Observed and modeled climate data cover the period 1990-2030. The isolated influence of LULC change assuming a constant climate is simulated by applying the seven LULC maps under observed climate data of the period 1990-2015. The isolated effect of climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5 of CCLM4-8) is studied by applying the LULC map of 1990 to the period 1990-2032. Additionally, we combined past modeled climate data and past observed LULC maps. Two chronological and continuous simulations were used to estimate the impact of LULC in the past and in the future by gradually applying the LULC maps. These simulations consider the combined impact of LULC and climate change. The simulations that assumed a constant climate and a changing LULC show increasing water yield (3.6%-46.5%) and mainly increasing specific sediment yield (-3.3%-52.6%). The simulations that assume constant LULC and climate as changing factor indicate increases in water yield of 24.5% to 46.7% and in sediment yield of 31.1% to 54.7% between the periods 1990-2005 and 2006-2032. The continuous simulations signal a clear increase in water yield (20.3%-73.4%) and specific sediment yield (24.7% to 90.1%). Actual evapotranspiration is estimated to change by between -7.3% (only LUCC) to +3.3% (only climate change). When comparing observed LULC and climate change alone, climate change has a larger impact on discharge and sediment yield, but LULC amplifies climate change impacts strongly. However, future LULC (2019-2030) will have a stronger impact as currently observed.

RevDate: 2018-11-19

Kubelka V, Šálek M, Tomkovich P, et al (2018)

Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 362(6415):680-683.

Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.

RevDate: 2018-11-09

Godin-Beekmann S (2018)

[Impact of climate change and ozone layer evolution on surface ultraviolet radiation].

Annales de dermatologie et de venereologie pii:S0151-9638(18)30712-9 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2018-11-08

Bryndum-Buchholz A, Tittensor DP, Blanchard JL, et al (2018)

21st century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15-30% (±12-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20-80% (±35-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-11-08

Salas RN, Slutzman JE, Sorensen C, et al (2018)

Climate Change and Health: An Urgent Call to Academic Emergency Medicine.

Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine [Epub ahead of print].

There is consensus among 97% of scientists that anthropogenic climate change is occurring and international agreement of the grave threat it poses.1,2 A Lancet Commission declared climate change "the biggest global health threat of the 21st century" with "potentially catastrophic risk to human health."3,4 Emergency medicine (EM) is already on the frontlines as climate change directly affects our patients, clinical practice, and emergency departments (EDs). This presents EM with a profound leadership opportunity to join our colleagues in the house of medicine to improve health and save lives. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-11-20

Montero N, Dei Marcovaldi MAG, Lopez-Mendilaharsu M, et al (2018)

Warmer and wetter conditions will reduce offspring production of hawksbill turtles in Brazil under climate change.

PloS one, 13(11):e0204188 pii:PONE-D-18-25520.

Climate change is expected to impact animals that are heavily reliant on environmental factors, such as sea turtles, since the incubation of their eggs, hatching success and sex ratio are influenced by the environment in which eggs incubate. As climate change progresses it is therefore important to understand how climatic conditions influence their reproductive output and the ramifications to population stability. Here, we examined the influences of five climatic variables (air temperature, accumulated and average precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at different temporal scales on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatchling production at ten nesting beaches within two regions of Brazil (five nesting beaches in Rio Grande do Norte and five in Bahia). Air temperature and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hawksbill hatching success (number of eggs hatched within a nest) across Brazil and in Rio Grande do Norte, while air temperature and average precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatching success at Bahia. Solar radiation was the main climatic driver of emergence success (number of hatchlings that emerged from total hatched eggs within a nest) at both regions. Warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation had negative effects on hatchling production, while wetter conditions had a positive effect. Conservative and extreme climate scenarios show air temperatures are projected to increase at this site, while precipitation projections vary between scenarios and regions throughout the 21st century. We predicted hatching success of undisturbed nests (no recorded depredation or storm-related impacts) will decrease in Brazil by 2100 as a result of how this population is influenced by local climate. This study shows the determining effects of different climate variables and their combinations on an important and critically endangered marine species.

RevDate: 2018-11-20

Alexander KA, Heaney AK, J Shaman (2018)

Hydrometeorology and flood pulse dynamics drive diarrheal disease outbreaks and increase vulnerability to climate change in surface-water-dependent populations: A retrospective analysis.

PLoS medicine, 15(11):e1002688 pii:PMEDICINE-D-17-04353.

BACKGROUND: The impacts of climate change on surface water, waterborne disease, and human health remain a growing area of concern, particularly in Africa, where diarrheal disease is one of the most important health threats to children under 5 years of age. Little is known about the role of surface water and annual flood dynamics (flood pulse) on waterborne disease and human health nor about the expected impact of climate change on surface-water-dependent populations.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the Chobe River in northern Botswana, a flood pulse river-floodplain system, we applied multimodel inference approaches assessing the influence of river height, water quality (bimonthly counts of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids [TSS], 2011-2017), and meteorological variability on weekly diarrheal case reports among children under 5 presenting to health facilities (n = 10 health facilities, January 2007-June 2017). We assessed diarrheal cases by clinical characteristics and season across age groups using monthly outpatient data (January 1998-June 2017). A strong seasonal pattern was identified, with 2 outbreaks occurring regularly in the wet and dry seasons. The timing of outbreaks diverged from that at the level of the country, where surface water is largely absent. Across age groups, the number of diarrheal cases was greater, on average, during the dry season. Demographic and clinical characteristics varied by season, underscoring the importance of environmental drivers. In the wet season, rainfall (8-week lag) had a significant influence on under-5 diarrhea, with a 10-mm increase in rainfall associated with an estimated 6.5% rise in the number of cases. Rainfall, minimum temperature, and river height were predictive of E. coli concentration, and increases in E. coli in the river were positively associated with diarrheal cases. In the dry season, river height (1-week lag) and maximum temperature (1- and 4-week lag) were significantly associated with diarrheal cases. During this period, a 1-meter drop in river height corresponded to an estimated 16.7% and 16.1% increase in reported diarrhea with a 1- and 4-week lag, respectively. In this region, as floodwaters receded from the surrounding floodplains, TSS levels increased and were positively associated with diarrheal cases (0- and 3-week lag). Populations living in this region utilized improved water sources, suggesting that hydrological variability and rapid water quality shifts in surface waters may compromise water treatment processes. Limitations include the potential influence of health beliefs and health seeking behaviors on data obtained through passive surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS: In flood pulse river-floodplain systems, hydrology and water quality dynamics can be highly variable, potentially impacting conventional water treatment facilities and the production of safe drinking water. In Southern Africa, climate change is predicted to intensify hydrological variability and the frequency of extreme weather events, amplifying the public health threat of waterborne disease in surface-water-dependent populations. Water sector development should be prioritized with urgency, incorporating technologies that are robust to local environmental conditions and expected climate-driven impacts. In populations with high HIV burdens, expansion of diarrheal disease surveillance and intervention strategies may also be needed. As annual flood pulse processes are predominantly influenced by climate controls in distant regions, country-level data may be inadequate to refine predictions of climate-health interactions in these systems.

RevDate: 2018-11-08

Esquivel-Muelbert A, Baker TR, Dexter KG, et al (2018)

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

RevDate: 2018-11-14

Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Guo Y, Sera F, et al (2018)

Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.

Climatic change, 150(3-4):391-402.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

RevDate: 2018-11-08

Obradovich N, R Migliorini (2018)

Sleep and the human impacts of climate change.

Sleep medicine reviews, 42:1-2.

RevDate: 2018-11-14

d'Alpoim Guedes J, RK Bocinsky (2018)

Climate change stimulated agricultural innovation and exchange across Asia.

Science advances, 4(10):eaar4491 pii:aar4491.

Ancient farmers experienced climate change at the local level through variations in the yields of their staple crops. However, archaeologists have had difficulty in determining where, when, and how changes in climate affected ancient farmers. We model how several key transitions in temperature affected the productivity of six grain crops across Eurasia. Cooling events between 3750 and 3000 cal. BP lead humans in parts of the Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia to diversify their crops. A second event at 2000 cal. BP leads farmers in central China to also diversify their cropping systems and to develop systems that allowed transport of grains from southern to northern China. In other areas where crop returns fared even worse, humans reduced their risk by increasing investment in nomadic pastoralism and developing long-distance networks of trade. By translating changes in climatic variables into factors that mattered to ancient farmers, we situate the adaptive strategies they developed to deal with variance in crop returns in the context of environmental and climatic changes.

RevDate: 2018-11-14

Bezeng BS, Tesfamichael SG, Dayananda B, et al (2018)

Predicting the effect of climate change on a range-restricted lizard in southeastern Australia.

Current zoology, 64(2):165-171.

Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we used over 1,300 independent occurrence points and different climate change emission scenarios to evaluate the potential risk of changing climatic conditions on the current and future potential distribution of a rock-dwelling lizard; the velvet gecko. Furthermore, we investigated if the current extent of protected area networks in Australia captures the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Our results show that climate change projections for the year 2075 have the potential to alter the distribution of the velvet gecko in southeastern Australia. Specifically, climate change may favor the range expansion of this species to encompass more suitable habitats. The trend of range expansion was qualitatively similar across the different climate change scenarios used. Additionally, we observed that the current network of protected areas in southeast Australia does not fully account for the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Ongoing climate change may profoundly affect the potential range distribution of the velvet gecko population. Therefore, the restricted habitat of the velvet geckos should be the focus of intensive pre-emptive management efforts. This management prioritization should be extended to encompass the increases in suitable habitats observed in this study in order to maximize the microhabitats available for the survival of this species.

RevDate: 2018-11-14

Bauduin S, McIntire E, St-Laurent MH, et al (2018)

Compensatory conservation measures for an endangered caribou population under climate change.

Scientific reports, 8(1):16438 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-34822-9.

Future human land use and climate change may disrupt movement behaviors of terrestrial animals, thereby altering the ability of individuals to move across a landscape. Some of the expected changes result from processes whose effects will be difficult to alter, such as global climate change. We present a novel framework in which we use models to (1) identify the ecological changes from these difficult-to-alter processes, as well as (2) the potential conservation measures that are best able to compensate for these changes. We illustrated this framework with the case of an endangered caribou population in Québec, Canada. We coupled a spatially explicit individual-based movement model with a range of landscape scenarios to assess the impacts of varying degrees of climate change, and the ability of conservation actions to compensate for such impacts on caribou movement behaviors. We found that (1) climate change impacts reduced movement potential, and that (2) the complete restoration of secondary roads inside protected areas was able to fully offset this reduction, suggesting that road restoration would be an effective compensatory conservation action. By evaluating conservation actions via landscape use simulated by an individual-based model, we were able to identify compensatory conservation options for an endangered species facing climate change.

RevDate: 2018-11-07

Yang GJ, R Bergquist (2018)

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt.

Tropical medicine and infectious disease, 3(4): pii:tropicalmed3040117.

Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S.mansoni and S.haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021⁻2050 and 2071⁻2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.

RevDate: 2018-11-06

Clearfield M, Davis G, Weis J, et al (2018)

Cardiovascular Disease as a Result of the Interactions Between Obesity, Climate Change, and Inflammation: The COCCI Syndemic.

The Journal of the American Osteopathic Association, 118(11):719-729.

Obesity and climate change conspire to create an environment in which subclinical vascular inflammation leads to progressive atherosclerosis, which contributes to the number 1 cause of global mortality: cardiovascular disease. The syndemic model requires 2 or more diseases or contributors to disease (such as obesity and climate change) clustering within a specific population in addition to the associated societal and social factors, ultimately creating an environment supportive of a greater adverse interaction. This article explores the syndemic of obesity and climate change as a driver for cardiovascular disease.

RevDate: 2018-11-20

Jaime R, Alcántara JM, Manzaneda AJ, et al (2018)

Climate change decreases suitable areas for rapeseed cultivation in Europe but provides new opportunities for white mustard as an alternative oilseed for biofuel production.

PloS one, 13(11):e0207124 pii:PONE-D-18-05490.

Oilseed crops, including several mustards, are cultivated as biofuel sources worldwide. However, common mustard crops (e.g., the rapeseed Brassica napus) grow naturally in mesic temperate regions, which are expected to be impaired by global warming and increased aridity. In particular, increased aridity is predicted to reduce the oil concentration and seed yield of rapeseed crops. There is therefore an urgent need to identify alternative bioenergy crops that are preadapted to future climatic conditions. An alternative to conventional Brassica species for biodiesel production is the white mustard Sinapis alba, which is native to the circum-Mediterranean region and has a high seed lipid content. S. alba grows spontaneously in olive groves and other widespread Mediterranean crops; accordingly, it could be easily cultivated by companion planting to improve ecosystem function by decreasing soil loss, controlling microbial disease, and assisting in the maintenance of biodiversity. In this study, using species distribution modeling, we predicted climatically suitable areas for the cultivation of S. alba in Western Europe across the Mediterranean Basin under present climatic conditions and several climate change scenarios. We show that current climatically suitable areas for S. alba cultivation do not overlap with those for B. napus. Unlike B. napus, S. alba could be cultivated throughout most of the circum-Mediterranean region. According to our models, increases in aridity and annual mean temperatures will expand the climatically suitable areas for S. alba in the Mediterranean Basin. However, suitable areas for the cultivation of B. napus will decrease significantly in Western Europe. Our results indicate that S. alba is a strong, environmentally safe candidate for biofuel production throughout the Mediterranean Basin and other Western European countries, especially under climate change scenarios that are expected to impair current oilseed crops.

RevDate: 2018-11-05

Lehikoinen P, Santangeli A, Jaatinen K, et al (2018)

Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change-Evidence from large-scale, long-term abundance data.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large-scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s-80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s-80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.

RevDate: 2018-11-14

Hamidov A, Helming K, Bellocchi G, et al (2018)

Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies.

Land degradation & development, 29(8):2378-2389.

Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions.

RevDate: 2018-11-03

Reside AE, Critchell K, Crayn DM, et al (2018)

Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species' fates under climate change.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modelling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modelling under- or over-estimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-11-14

Lim YK, Schubert SD, Kovach R, et al (2018)

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Scientific reports, 8(1):16172 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 °C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 °C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

RevDate: 2018-11-14

Hummel M, Hallahan BF, Brychkova G, et al (2018)

Reduction in nutritional quality and growing area suitability of common bean under climate change induced drought stress in Africa.

Scientific reports, 8(1):16187 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-33952-4.

Climate change impacts on food security will involve negative impacts on crop yields, and potentially on the nutritional quality of staple crops. Common bean is the most important grain legume staple crop for human diets and nutrition worldwide. We demonstrate by crop modeling that the majority of current common bean growing areas in southeastern Africa will become unsuitable for bean cultivation by the year 2050. We further demonstrate reductions in yields of available common bean varieties in a field trial that is a climate analogue site for future predicted drought conditions. Little is known regarding the impact of climate change induced abiotic stresses on the nutritional quality of common beans. Our analysis of nutritional and antinutritional compounds reveals that iron levels in common bean grains are reduced under future climate-scenario relevant drought stress conditions. In contrast, the levels of protein, zinc, lead and phytic acid increase in the beans under such drought stress conditions. This indicates that under climate-change induced drought scenarios, future bean servings by 2050 will likely have lower nutritional quality, posing challenges for ongoing climate-proofing of bean production for yields, nutritional quality, human health, and food security.

RevDate: 2018-11-01

Bishop-Williams KE, Berrang-Ford L, Sargeant JM, et al (2018)

Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(11): pii:ijerph15112402.

Background: Season and weather are associated with many health outcomes, which can influence hospital admission rates. We examined associations between hospital admissions (all diagnoses) and local meteorological parameters in Southwestern Uganda, with the aim of supporting hospital planning and preparedness in the context of climate change. Methods: Hospital admissions data and meteorological data were collected from Bwindi Community Hospital and a satellite database of weather conditions, respectively (2011 to 2014). Descriptive statistics were used to describe admission patterns. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was fitted to investigate associations between hospital admissions and season, precipitation, and temperature. Results: Admission counts were highest for acute respiratory infections, malaria, and acute gastrointestinal illness, which are climate-sensitive diseases. Hospital admissions were 1.16 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.31; p = 0.008) times higher during extreme high temperatures (i.e., >95th percentile) on the day of admission. Hospital admissions association with season depended on year; admissions were higher in the dry season than the rainy season every year, except for 2014. Discussion: Effective adaptation strategy characteristics include being low-cost and quick and practical to implement at local scales. Herein, we illustrate how analyzing hospital data alongside meteorological parameters may inform climate-health planning in low-resource contexts.

RevDate: 2018-10-31

Li J, Li D, Xue Y, et al (2018)

Identifying potential refugia and corridors under climate change: A case study of endangered Sichuan golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Qinling Mountains, China.

American journal of primatology, 80(11):e22929.

Climate change threatens endangered species and challenges current conservation strategies. Effective conservation requires vulnerability assessments for species susceptible to climate change and adaptive strategies to mitigate threats associated with climate. In this paper, we used the Maxent to model the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Sichuan golden monkey Rhinopithecus roxellana. Our results showed that (i) suitable habitat for Sichuan golden monkey was predicted to decrease by 37% in 2050s under climate change; (ii) the mean elevations of suitable habitat in the 2050s was estimated to shift 160 m higher; (iii) nature reserves protect 62% of current suitable habitat and 56% of future suitable habitat; and (iv) 49% of current suitable habitat was predicted to be vulnerable to future climate change. Given these results, we proposed conservation implications to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Sichuan golden monkey, including adjusting range of national park, establishing habitat corridors, and conducting long-term monitoring.

RevDate: 2018-11-20

Case MJ, KA Stinson (2018)

Climate change impacts on the distribution of the allergenic plant, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in the eastern United States.

PloS one, 13(10):e0205677 pii:PONE-D-18-15910.

Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts.

RevDate: 2018-11-20

Vicens J, Bueno-Guerra N, Gutiérrez-Roig M, et al (2018)

Resource heterogeneity leads to unjust effort distribution in climate change mitigation.

PloS one, 13(10):e0204369 pii:PONE-D-18-17074.

Climate change mitigation is a shared global challenge that involves collective action of a set of individuals with different tendencies to cooperation. However, we lack an understanding of the effect of resource inequality when diverse actors interact together towards a common goal. Here, we report the results of a collective-risk dilemma experiment in which groups of individuals were initially given either equal or unequal endowments. We found that the effort distribution was highly inequitable, with participants with fewer resources contributing significantly more to the public goods than the richer -sometimes twice as much. An unsupervised learning algorithm classified the subjects according to their individual behavior, finding the poorest participants within two "generous clusters" and the richest into a "greedy cluster". Our results suggest that policies would benefit from educating about fairness and reinforcing climate justice actions addressed to vulnerable people instead of focusing on understanding generic or global climate consequences.

RevDate: 2018-10-31

Clewlow HL, Takahashi A, Watanabe S, et al (2018)

Niche partitioning of sympatric penguins by leapfrog foraging appears to be resilient to climate change.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

1.Interspecific competition can drive niche partitioning along multidimensional axes, including allochrony. Competitor matching will arise where the phenology of sympatric species with similar ecological requirements respond to climate change at different rates such that allochrony is reduced. 2.Our study quantifies the degree of niche segregation in foraging areas and depths that arises from allochrony in sympatric Adélie and chinstrap penguins and explores its resilience to climate change. 3.Three-dimensional tracking data were sampled during all stages of the breeding season and were used to parameterise a behaviour-based model that quantified spatial overlap of foraging areas under different scenarios of allochrony. 4.The foraging ranges of the two species were similar within breeding stages, but differences in their foraging ranges between stages, combined with the observed allochrony of 28 days, resulted in them leapfrogging each other through the breeding season such that they were exploiting different foraging locations on the same calendar dates. Allochrony reduced spatial overlap in the peripheral utilisation distribution of the two species by 54.0% over the entire breeding season, compared to a scenario where the two species bred synchronously. 5.Analysis of long-term phenology data revealed that both species advanced their laying dates in relation to October air temperatures at the same rate, preserving allochrony and niche partitioning. However if allochrony is reduced by just a single day, the spatial overlap of the core utilisation distribution increased by an average of 2.1% over the entire breeding season. 6.Niche partitioning between the two species by allochrony appears to be resilient to climate change and so competitor matching cannot be implicated in the observed population declines of the two penguin species across the Western Antarctic Peninsula. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

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Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).

Timelines

ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.

Biographies

Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

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