Viewport Size Code:
Login | Create New Account


About | Classical Genetics | Timelines | What's New | What's Hot

About | Classical Genetics | Timelines | What's New | What's Hot


Bibliography Options Menu

Hide Abstracts   |   Hide Additional Links
Long bibliographies are displayed in blocks of 100 citations at a time. At the end of each block there is an option to load the next block.

Bibliography on: Climate Change

The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project: Providing world-wide, free access to classic scientific papers and other scholarly materials, since 1993.


ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 18 May 2024 at 02:00 Created: 

Climate Change

The world is warming up, with 2023 being by far the hottest year since record keeping began and 2024 shaping up to be hotter yet. But these changes only involve one or two degrees. What's the big deal?

The amount of energy required to raise the temperature of one liter of water by one degree is one kilocalorie (kcal). Scaling up, the amount of energy required for a one-degree increase in the water temperature of the Gulf of Mexico is 2,434,000,000,000,000,000 kcals. That's 25 million times more energy than released by the WW-II atomic bomb that destroyed the city of Hiroshima and killed more than 100,000 people.

So, for every one degree increase in water temperature, the Gulf of Mexico takes on 25-million atomic bombs worth of new energy, which is then available to fuel hurricanes and other storms. Maybe a one-degree rise in temperature is a big deal.

Created with PubMed® Query: (( "climate change"[TITLE] OR "global warming"[TITLE] )) NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)


RevDate: 2024-05-16

Bote L, M Maes (2024)

Tracking pathogen evolution through climate change.

Nature reviews. Microbiology [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2024-05-16

Xu B, R Xu (2024)

An assessment on the new impetus of green energy development and its impact on climate change: a non-linear perspective.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

The purpose of this article is to investigate the new driving forces behind China's green energy and further assess the impact of green energy on climate change. The existing literature has used linear methods to investigate green energy, ignoring the non-linear relationships between economic variables. The nonparametric models can accurately simulate nonlinear relationships between economic variables. This paper constructs a nonparametric additive model and uses it to explore green energy. The empirical results show that the impact of green finance on green energy is more prominent in the later stage (a U-shaped impact). Fiscal decentralization also exerts a positive U-shaped impact, meaning that expanding local fiscal autonomy has contributed to green energy growth in the later stage. Similarly, the impact of oil prices and foreign direct investment demonstrates a positive U-shaped pattern. However, the nonlinear impact of environmental pressure displays an inverted U-shaped pattern. Furthermore, this article explores the impact of green energy on climate change and its impact mechanisms. The results exhibit green energy generates a positive U-shaped impact on climate change, meaning that the role of green energy in mitigating climate change gradually becomes prominent over time. Mechanism analysis exhibits that industrial structure and energy structure both produce a nonlinear influence on climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-16
CmpDate: 2024-05-16

Qiao X, Straight B, Ngo D, et al (2024)

Severe drought exposure in utero associates to children's epigenetic age acceleration in a global climate change hot spot.

Nature communications, 15(1):4140.

The goal of this study is to examine the association between in utero drought exposure and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in a global climate change hot spot. Calculations of EAA in adults using DNA methylation have been found to accurately predict chronic disease and longevity. However, fewer studies have examined EAA in children, and drought exposure in utero has not been investigated. Additionally, studies of EAA in low-income countries with diverse populations are rare. We assess EAA using epigenetic clocks and two DNAm-based pace-of-aging measurements from whole saliva samples in 104 drought-exposed children and 109 same-sex sibling controls in northern Kenya. We find a positive association between in utero drought exposure and EAA in two epigenetic clocks (Hannum's and GrimAge) and a negative association in the DNAm based telomere length (DNAmTL) clock. The combined impact of drought's multiple deleterious stressors may reduce overall life expectancy through accelerated epigenetic aging.

RevDate: 2024-05-17

Ji Y, Zeng S, Liu X, et al (2024)

Mutual inhibition effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP.

Environmental research, 252(Pt 4):119145 pii:S0013-9351(24)01050-8 [Epub ahead of print].

The impact of CO2 fertilization on enhancing global forest gross primary productivity (GPP) is acknowledged, but its interaction with climate factors-air temperature (Tem), precipitation (Pre), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and radiation (Rad)-remains unclear. In this study, global forest GPP trends from 1982 to 2018 were examined using BEPS, NIRv, FLUXCOM, and revised EC-LUE datasets, with interannual trends of 5.618 (p < 0.01), 5.831 (p < 0.01), 0.227, and 6.566 g C m[-2] yr[-1] (p < 0.01), respectively. Elevated CO2 was identified as the primary driver of GPP trends, with the dominant area ranging from 51.11% to 90.37% across different GPP datasets. In the NIRv and revised EC-LUE datasets, the positive impact of CO2 on GPP showed a decrease of 0.222 g C m[-2] yr[-1], while the negative impact of Rad increased by 0.007 g C m[-2] yr[-1]. An inhibitory relationship was found between the actual effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on GPP in most forest types. At lower latitudes, Tem primarily constrained CO2 fertilization, while at higher latitudes, VPD emerged as the key limiting factor. This was mainly attributed to the potential trade-off or competition between elevated CO2 and climate change in influencing GPP, with strategic resource allocation varying across different forest ecosystems. This study highlights the significant inhibitory effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP, providing insights into the dynamic responses of forest ecosystems to changing environments.

RevDate: 2024-05-17

Godwin A, Pieralli S, Sofkova-Bobcheva S, et al (2024)

Pollen-mediated gene flow from wild carrots (Daucus carota L. subsp. carota) affects the production of commercial carrot seeds (Daucus carota L. subsp. sativus) internationally and in New Zealand in the context of climate change: A systematic review.

The Science of the total environment, 933:173269 pii:S0048-9697(24)03416-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change will impact the carrot seed industry globally. One adaptation strategy to limit climatic impacts on the production of commercial carrot seeds is geographical shift. However, production must be shifted to climate-optimal places that are free from weeds such as wild carrots to avoid genetic contamination via hybridization. The process of gene flow between wild and cultivated carrots is critical to enable management of wild carrots in the face of climate change. This review systematically assesses the resilience of wild carrots to climate change and their impact on commercial carrot seed production globally with a focus on New Zealand as a major carrot seed producer. The literature was critically analyzed based on three specific components: i) resilience of wild carrots to climate change ii) genetic contamination between wild and cultivated carrots, and iii) management of wild carrots. The majority of the articles were published between 2013 and 2023 (64.71 %), and most of these studies were conducted in Europe (37.26 %) and North America (27.45 %). Country-wise analysis demonstrated that the majority of the studies were carried out in the United States (23.53 %) and the Netherlands (11.77 %). There was limited research conducted in other regions, especially in Oceania (1.96 %). Spatial distribution analysis revealed that the wild carrot was reported in around 100 countries. In New Zealand the North Island has a higher incidence of wild carrot invasion than the South Island. The findings indicated that the wild carrot is becoming more adaptable to climate change, compromising the genetic purity of cultivated carrots due to pollen flow from wild to cultivated carrots. Therefore, ongoing research will be helpful in developing sustainable weed management strategies and predicting potential geographical invasiveness. This study provides a guide for scientists, policymakers, industrialists, and farmers to control wild carrots and produce genetically pure commercial seeds amid climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-16

Woolley G, Kroll K, Hoffman K, et al (2024)

The Climate Change Burden on Immune Health: Are Persons Living With HIV More at Risk?.

AIDS research and human retroviruses [Epub ahead of print].


RevDate: 2024-05-16

Harman RR, Morrison WR, Ludwick D, et al (2024)

Predicted range expansion of Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) under projected climate change scenarios.

Journal of economic entomology pii:7675404 [Epub ahead of print].

The larger grain borer (Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America and adapted to stored maize and cassava. It was accidentally introduced to Tanzania and became a pest across central Africa. Unlike many grain pests, P. truncatus populations can establish and move within forests. Consequently, novel infestations can occur without human influence. The objectives of our study were to (i) develop an updated current suitability projection for P. truncatus, (ii) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, and (iii) identify climate variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE and MaxEnt to predict potential global distribution by incorporating bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Future models were projected for 2050 and 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 (low change) and 8.5 (high change). Distribution was most limited by high precipitation and cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (> 75%) primarily occurred along coastal and equatorial regions with novel areas in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, totaling 7% under current conditions. Highly suitable areas at RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 are estimated to increase to 12% and 15%, respectively, by 2050 and increase to 19% in 2070 under RCP 8.5. Centroids of highly suitable areas show distribution centers moving more inshore and away from the equator. Notably, the result is a range expansion, not a shift. Results can be used to decrease biosecurity risks through more spatially explicit and timely surveillance programs for targeting the exclusion of this pest.

RevDate: 2024-05-16
CmpDate: 2024-05-16

Zhou L, Liu C, He C, et al (2024)

Quantification of the Heat-Related Risk and Burden of Hospitalizations for Cause-Specific Injuries and Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study in China.

Environmental health perspectives, 132(5):57005.

BACKGROUND: Although ambient temperature has been linked with injury incidence, there have been few nationwide studies to quantify the temperature-related risk and burden of cause-specific injury hospitalizations. Additionally, the impact of human-induced climate change to injury burden remains unknown.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives are to examine the associations between ambient temperature and injury hospitalizations from various causes and to quantify the contribution of human-induced warming to the heat-related burden.

METHODS: We collected injury hospitalization data from a nationwide hospital-based registry in China during 2000-2019. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design, we investigated the associations between daily mean temperature (°C) and cause-specific injury hospitalizations. We also quantified the burden of heat-related injuries under the scenarios with and without anthropogenic forcing, using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project to assess the contribution of human-induced warming.

RESULTS: Our study included a total of 988,087 patients with hospitalization records for injuries. Overall, compared to the temperature at minimum risk of hospitalization (-12.1°C), the relative risk of hospitalization at extreme hot temperature (30.8°C, 97.5th percentile) was 1.18 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.22], with an approximately linear association between temperature and hospitalization. Vulnerability to heat-related injuries was more pronounced among males, young (<18 years of age) or middle-aged (45-64 years of age) individuals, and those living in the North. The heat-related attributable fraction increased from 23.2% in the 2000s to 23.6% in the 2010s, with a corresponding increase in the contribution of human-induced change over time. In the 2010s, the heat-related attributable fractions for specific causes of injury ranged from 12.4% to 54.4%, with human-induced change accounting for 6.7% to 10.6% of the burden.

DISCUSSION: This nationwide study presents new evidence of significant associations between temperature and cause-specific injury hospitalizations in China and highlights the increasing contribution of human-induced warming to the injury burden.

RevDate: 2024-05-16
CmpDate: 2024-05-16

Meza-Buendia AK, Aparicio-Trejo OE, Díaz F, et al (2024)

Climate change consequences on the systemic heart of female Octopus maya: oxidative phosphorylation assessment and the antioxidant system.

Biology open, 13(5):.

There is evidence that indicates that temperature modulates the reproduction of the tropical species Octopus maya, through the over- or under-expression of many genes in the brain. If the oxygen supply to the brain depends on the circulatory system, how temperature affects different tissues will begin in the heart, responsible for pumping the oxygen to tissues. The present study examines the impact of heat stress on the mitochondrial function of the systemic heart of adult O. maya. The mitochondrial metabolism and antioxidant defense system were measured in the systemic heart tissue of female organisms acclimated to different temperatures (24, 26, and 30°C). The results show that acclimation temperature affects respiratory State 3 and State 4o (oligomycin-induced) with higher values observed in females acclimated at 26°C. The antioxidant defense system is also affected by acclimation temperature with significant differences observed in superoxide dismutase, glutathione S-transferase activities, and glutathione levels. The results suggest that high temperatures (30°C) could exert physical limitations on the circulatory system through the heart pumping, affecting nutrient and oxygen transport to other tissues, including the brain, which exerts control over the reproductive system. The role of the cardiovascular system in supporting aerobic metabolism in octopus females is discussed.

RevDate: 2024-05-16

Reese A, Clark CM, Phelan J, et al (2024)

Geographic variation in projected US forest aboveground carbon responses to climate change and atmospheric deposition.

Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site], 19:1-12.

Forest composition and ecosystem services are sensitive to anthropogenic pressures like climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S). Here we extend recent forest projections for the current cohort of trees in the contiguous US, characterizing potential changes in aboveground tree carbon at the county level in response to varying mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition. We found that relative to a scenario with N and S deposition reduction and no climate change, greater climate change led generally to decreasing aboveground carbon (mean -7.5% under RCP4.5, -16% under RCP8.5). Keeping climate constant, reduced N deposition tended to lessen aboveground carbon (mean -7%), whereas reduced S deposition tended to increase aboveground carbon (+3%) by 2100. Through mid-century (2050), deposition was more important for predicting carbon responses except under the extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5); but, by 2100, climate drivers generally outweighed deposition. While more than 70% of counties showed reductions in aboveground carbon relative to the reference scenario, these were not evenly distributed across the US. Counties in the Northwest and Northern Great Plains, and the northern parts of New England and the Midwest, primarily showed positive responses, while counties in the Southeast showed negative responses. Counties with greater initial biomass showed less negative responses to climate change while those which exhibited the greatest change in composition (>15%) had a 95% chance of losing carbon relative to a no-climate change scenario. This analysis highlights that declines in forest growth and survival due to increases in mean temperature and reductions in atmospheric N deposition are likely to outweigh positive impacts of reduced S deposition and potential increases in precipitation. These effects vary at the regional and county level, however, so forest managers must consider local rather than national dynamics to maximize forest carbon sinks in the future.

RevDate: 2024-05-16

Li T, Jiang P, Liu J, et al (2024)

Considering climate change impact on the global potential geographical distribution of the invasive Argentine ant and little fire ant.

Bulletin of entomological research pii:S0007485324000270 [Epub ahead of print].

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) and the little fire ant (Wasmannia auropunctata) are among the top 100 invasive alien species globally, causing significant ecological and economic harm. Therefore, it is crucial to study their potential geographic distribution worldwide. This study aimed to predict their global distribution under current and future climate conditions. We used distribution data from various sources, including CABI, GBIF, and PIAKey, and key climate variables selected from 19 environmental factors to model their potential geographic distribution using MaxEnt. The AUC values were 0.925 and 0.937 for L. humile and W. auropunctata, respectively, indicating good predictive performance. Suitable areas for L. humile were mainly in southern North America, northern South America, Europe, central Asia, southern Oceania, and parts of Africa, while W. auropunctata suitable areas were mostly in southern North America, most of South America, a small part of Europe, southern Asia, central Africa, and some parts of Oceania. Under climate change scenario, suitable areas for L. humile increased, while highly suitable areas for W. auropunctata decreased. The top four countries with the largest areas of overlapping suitable habitat under current climate were Brazil, China, Australia, and Argentina, while under future SSP585 climate scenario, the top four countries were Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Argentina. Some countries, such as Estonia and Finland, will see an overlapping adaptation area under climate change. In conclusion, this study provides insight into controlling the spread and harm of L. humile and W. auropunctata.

RevDate: 2024-05-16

Dellaripa PF, Sung LH, Bain PA, et al (2024)

The American College of Rheumatology White Paper: The Effects of Climate Change on Rheumatic Conditions - An Evolving Landscape and a Path Forward.

Arthritis & rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.) [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Increases in global temperatures and extreme weather events associated with climate change have complex yet poorly understood detrimental impacts on human health. We reviewed the current published literature on climate change-related effects and rheumatic conditions.

METHODS: To summarize our current understanding of the likely effects of climate change, including increased air pollution, on rheumatic disease, we searched the published, peer-reviewed English-language literature from January 2000-December 2022. Articles were reviewed by a team of rheumatologists and clinical and translational science researchers. Systematic review articles were not included but informed additional literature searches.

RESULTS: After extensive examination and adjudication, 88 articles met inclusion criteria and were selected for review. Much of the epidemiologic investigations assessed associations between air pollution and increased risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis, anti-citrullinated protein antibodies, flares of gout and hospitalizations for systemic lupus erythematosus. Increased heat vulnerability was associated with higher odds of recurrent hospitalizations across rheumatic conditions. Mechanisms for observed associations are poorly understood but could include the effects of epigenetic changes, oxidative stress, and inflammatory cytokines. Studies had limitations including restricted geography and populations studied without focus on historically marginalized communities at highest risk for adverse effects from pollution and climate change, the relative lack of mechanistic evaluations, and most with only indirect links to climate change.

CONCLUSIONS: To date, the published literature lacks studies that directly examine effects of climate change on rheumatic diseases. Collaborative translational and epidemiologic research is needed to enhance our understanding and awareness in this area.

RevDate: 2024-05-15

Liu Y, Cheng J, Zhang Y, et al (2024)

Non-trade-off Changes in Soil Conservation Service and Soil Loss on the Tibetan Plateau Underlying the Impacts of Climate Change and human activities.

Environmental management [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and human activities have significantly influenced soil loss and the soil conservation service, posed threats to regional ecological sustainability. However, the relationships and underlying driving forces between potential soil loss, actual soil loss, and soil conservation service have not been well understood. Utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, we evaluated the soil conservation service on the Tibetan plateau from 1990 to 2020. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends and examined the driving factors using linear regression, Pearson correlation, and random forest regression. The soil conservation service exhibited a complex pattern of increase followed by a decrease, with a turning point around 2010. Soil conservation service and soil loss demonstrated non-trade-off changes. The potential soil loss dominated the spatiotemporal patterns of soil conservation service on the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic factors significantly influenced the spatiotemporal patterns of soil conservation service, with annual precipitation emerging as the dominant driving factor, contributing approximately 20%. However, the impacts of human activities became more pronounced since 2010, and the contribution of vegetation to changes in soil conservation service was increased. The impact of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on soil conservation service for the grades I, II, and III increased by 13.19%, 3.08%, and 3.41%, respectively. Conversely, in northern Tibet before 2010 and eastern Three-River-Source after 2010, soil conservation service exhibited an increasing trend driven by both climate factors and human activities. Which indicates that the implementation of ecological restoration measures facilitated vegetation improvement and subsequently reduced actual soil loss. This study provides a scientific basis for resource management, land development strategies, and the formulation of ecological restoration measures on the Tibetan Plateau.

RevDate: 2024-05-15

van Daalen KR, Tonne C, Semenza JC, et al (2024)

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action.

The Lancet. Public health pii:S2468-2667(24)00055-0 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2024-05-15

Zulfiqar F, Moosa A, Ali HM, et al (2024)

Biostimulants: A sufficiently effective tool for sustainable agriculture in the era of climate change?.

Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB, 211:108699 pii:S0981-9428(24)00367-X [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is currently considered as one of the main concerns of the agriculture sector, as it limits crop production and quality. Furthermore, the current context of global crisis with international political instability and war conflicts over the world is pushing the agriculture sector even more to urgently boost productivity and yield and doing so in a sustainable way in the current frame of climate change. Biostimulants can be an effective tool in alleviating the negative effects of environmental stresses to which plants are exposed, such as drought, salinity, heavy metals and extreme temperatures etc. Biostimulants act through multiple mechanisms, modifying gene expression, metabolism and phytohormone production, promoting the accumulation of compatible solutes and antioxidants and mitigating oxidative stress. However, it is important to keep in mind that the use and effect of biostimulants has limitations and must be accompanied by other techniques to ensure crop yield and quality in the current frame of climate change, such as proper crop management and the use of other sustainable resources. Here, we will not only highlight the potential use of biostimulants to face future agricultural challenges, but also take a critical look at their limitations, underlining the importance of a broad vision of sustainable agriculture in the context of climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-15
CmpDate: 2024-05-15

Bell ML, Gasparrini A, GC Benjamin (2024)

Climate Change, Extreme Heat, and Health.

The New England journal of medicine, 390(19):1793-1801.

RevDate: 2024-05-15
CmpDate: 2024-05-15

Visconti G, K Young (2024)

The effect of different extreme weather events on attitudes toward climate change.

PloS one, 19(5):e0300967 pii:PONE-D-23-27737.

Can exposure to extreme weather change political opinion and preferences about climate change? There is a growing literature on both the effects of extreme weather events and the factors explaining attitudes toward global warming, though there remains no clear consensus about whether being exposed to extreme weather influences public opinion about climate change. We contribute to this literature by studying the impact of a variety of extreme weather events associated with climate variability, including severe storms, floods, fires, and hurricanes, on attitudes toward climate change. Specifically, we use a three-wave panel survey and a dynamic difference-in-differences design to analyze public opinion data at the individual level in the US. We find that exposure to only one extreme weather type-fires-has a small but significant effect on acknowledging the existence of climate change and supporting the need for action. However, that impact quickly vanishes, and other types of extreme weather do not appear to have any effect on opinion.

RevDate: 2024-05-15

Berkel C (2024)

Potential Impact of Climate Change-Induced Alterations on Pyroptotic Cell Death in Animal Cells: A Review.

Molecular biotechnology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change-induced alterations in temperature variation, ozone exposure, water salinity and acidification, and hypoxia might influence immunity and thus survival in diverse groups of animals from fish to mammals. Pyroptosis is a type of lytic pro-inflammatory programmed cell death, which participates in the innate immune response, and is involved in multiple diseases characterized by inflammation and cell death, mostly studied in human cells. Diverse extrinsic factors can induce pyroptosis, leading to the extracellular release of pro-inflammatory molecules such as IL-18. Climate change-related factors, either directly or indirectly, can also promote animal cell death via different regulated mechanisms, impacting organismal fitness. However, pyroptosis has been relatively less studied in this context compared to another cell death process, apoptosis. This review covers previous research pointing to the potential impact of climate change, through various abiotic stressors, on pyroptotic cell death in different animal cells in various contexts. It was proposed that temperature, ozone exposure, water salinity, water acidification and hypoxia have the potential to induce pyroptotic cell death in animal cells and promote inflammation, and that these pyroptotic events should be better understood to be able to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on animal physiology and health. This is of high importance considering the increasing frequency, intensity and duration of climate-based changes in these environmental parameters, and the critical function of pyroptosis in immune responses of animals and in their predisposition to multiple diseases including cancer. Furthermore, the need for further mechanistic studies showing the more direct impact of climate change-induced environmental alterations on pyroptotic cell death in animals at the organismal level was highlighted. A complete picture of the association between climate change and pyroptosis in animals will be also highly valuable in terms of ecological and clinical applications, and it requires an interdisciplinary approach. SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change-induced alterations might influence animal physiology. Pyroptosis is a form of cell death with pro-inflammatory characteristics. Previous research suggests that temperature variation, ozone exposure, water salinity and acidification, and hypoxia might have the potential to contribute to pyroptotic cell death in certain cell types and contexts. Climate change-induced pyroptotic cell death should be better understood to be able to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on animal health.

RevDate: 2024-05-15

Huang M, Chen Y, Zhou W, et al (2024)

Assessing the response of marine fish communities to climate change and fishing.

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Epub ahead of print].

Globally, marine fish communities are being altered by climate change and human disturbances. We examined data on global marine fish communities to assess changes in community-weighted mean temperature affinity (i.e., mean temperatures within geographic ranges), maximum length, and trophic levels, which, respectively, represent the physiological, morphological, and trophic characteristics of marine fish communities. Then, we explored the influence of climate change and fishing on these characteristics because of their long-term role in shaping fish communities, especially their interactive effects. We employed spatial linear mixed models to investigate their impacts on community-weighted mean trait values and on abundance of different fish lengths and trophic groups. Globally, we observed an initial increasing trend in the temperature affinity of marine fish communities, whereas the weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities showed a declining trend. However, these shift trends were not significant, likely due to the large variation in midlatitude communities. Fishing pressure increased fish communities' temperature affinity in regions experiencing climate warming. Furthermore, climate warming was associated with an increase in weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities. Low climate baseline temperature appeared to mitigate the effect of climate warming on temperature affinity and trophic levels. The effect of climate warming on the relative abundance of different trophic classes and size classes both exhibited a nonlinear pattern. The small and relatively large fish species may benefit from climate warming, whereas the medium and largest size groups may be disadvantaged. Our results highlight the urgency of establishing stepping-stone marine protected areas to facilitate the migration of fishes to habitats in a warming ocean. Moreover, reducing human disturbance is crucial to mitigate rapid tropicalization, particularly in vulnerable temperate regions.

RevDate: 2024-05-14

Kharouba HM, JL Williams (2024)

Forecasting species' responses to climate change using space-for-time substitution.

Trends in ecology & evolution pii:S0169-5347(24)00082-X [Epub ahead of print].

To anticipate species' responses to climate change, ecologists have largely relied on the space-for-time-substitution (SFTS) approach. However, the hypothesis and its underlying assumptions have been poorly tested. Here, we detail how the efficacy of using the SFTS approach to predict future locations will depend on species' traits, the ecological context, and whether the species is declining or introduced. We argue that the SFTS approach will be least predictive in the contexts where we most need it to be: forecasting the expansion of the range of introduced species and the recovery of threatened species. We highlight how evaluating the underlying assumptions, along with improved methods, will rapidly advance our understanding of the applicability of the SFTS approach, particularly in the context of modelling the distribution of species.

RevDate: 2024-05-14

Gao S, Y Wang (2024)

Aging in climate change: Unpacking residential mobility and changes of social determinants of health in southern United States.

Health & place, 88:103268 pii:S1353-8292(24)00096-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The southern coastal states of the United States are susceptible to extreme weather and climate events. With growing move-in and -out older populations in the region, health implications of their residential mobility lack sufficient knowledge. Using 126,352 person-level records from 2012 to 2021, we examined geospatial and temporal patterns of older populations' residential mobility, considering the changing social determinants of health and disparities. We found the moves of older populations with socioeconomic or health disadvantages were related to increased exposure to environmental hazards and reduced access to health resources. The findings inform targeted strategies for climate adaptation that address the needs of vulnerable aging populations.

RevDate: 2024-05-14

Azuero-Pedraza CG, Lauri P, Lessa Derci Augustynczik A, et al (2024)

Managing Forests for Biodiversity Conservation and Climate Change Mitigation.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

We include biodiversity impacts in forest management decision making by incorporating the countryside species area relationship model into the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM-Forest. We tested three forest management intensities (low, medium, and high) and limited biodiversity loss via an additional constraint on regional species loss. We analyzed two scenarios for climate change mitigation. RCP1.9, the higher mitigation scenario, has more biodiversity loss than the reference RCP7.0, suggesting a trade-off between climate change mitigation, with increased bioenergy use, and biodiversity conservation in forests. This trade-off can be alleviated with biodiversity-conscious forest management by (1) shifting biomass production destined to bioenergy from forests to energy crops, (2) increasing areas under unmanaged secondary forest, (3) reducing forest management intensity, and (4) reallocating biomass production between and within regions. With these mechanisms, it is possible to reduce potential global biodiversity loss by 10% with minor changes in economic outcomes. The global aggregated reduction in biodiversity impacts does not imply that biodiversity impacts are reduced in each ecoregion. We exemplify how to connect an ecologic and an economic model to identify trade-offs, challenges, and possibilities for improved decisions. We acknowledge the limitations of this approach, especially of measuring and projecting biodiversity loss.

RevDate: 2024-05-13

Lynch AJ, Embke HS, Nyboer EA, et al (2024)

Inland recreational fisheries contribute nutritional benefits and economic value but are vulnerable to climate change.

Nature food [Epub ahead of print].

Inland recreational fishing is primarily considered a leisure-driven activity in freshwaters, yet its harvest can contribute to food systems. Here we estimate that the harvest from inland recreational fishing equates to just over one-tenth of all reported inland fisheries catch globally. The estimated total consumptive use value of inland recreational fish destined for human consumption may reach US$9.95 billion annually. We identify Austria, Canada, Germany and Slovakia as countries above the third quantile for nutrition, economic value and climate vulnerability. These results have important implications for populations dependent on inland recreational fishing for food. Our findings can inform climate adaptation planning for inland recreational fisheries, particularly those not currently managed as food fisheries.

RevDate: 2024-05-15

Kuśmierczyk-Michulec J, J Baré (2024)

Climate change as observed through the IMS radionuclide station in Spitzbergen.

Scientific reports, 14(1):10906.

The International Monitoring System (IMS), installed and maintained by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) with the support of States Signatories, is a global system of monitoring stations based on four complementary technologies: seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound and radionuclide. One of the IMS radionuclide stations is located in Spitzbergen, the largest island of the Norwegian Svalbard Archipelago, which borders the Barents Sea and the Northern Atlantic Ocean. It has been demonstrated that signs of climate change are particularly noticeable in that region. As many other radionuclides observed in environmental measurements, [212]Pb is always observed at IMS stations, in varying quantities. This is also the case for the IMS station RN49, Spitzbergen, where it can be demonstrated that the average concentration of the measured lead [212]Pb increases. This is observable specifically October through December. This paper demonstrates the asset of IMS data to study climate change effects. Our conclusions are supported by global temperature anomaly data from NOAA's Global Surface Temperature Analysis, covering the period 1850 to 2023.

RevDate: 2024-05-13

Li Q, Gao X, Li J, et al (2024)

Nonlinear time effects of vegetation response to climate change: Evidence from Qilian Mountain National Park in China.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)03296-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Vegetation responses to climate change are typically nonlinear with varied time effects, yet current research lacks comprehensiveness and precise definitions, hindering a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study focuses on the mountain-type Qilian Mountains National Park (QMNP), investigating the characteristics and patterns of these nonlinear time effects using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on MODIS-NDVI, growing season temperature, and precipitation data. The results show that 1) The time effects of climate change on vegetation exhibit significant spatial variations, differing across vegetation types and topographic conditions. Accounting for optimal time effects can increase the explanatory power of climate on vegetation change by 6.8 %. Precipitation responses are mainly characterized by time-lag and time-accumulation effects, notably in meadows and steppes, while temperature responses are largely cumulative, especially in steppes. The altitude and slope significantly influence the pattern of vegetation response to climate, particularly in areas with high altitudes and steep slopes. 2) There is a significant nonlinear relationship between vegetation growth and both precipitation and temperature, with the nonlinear relationship between precipitation and vegetation being stronger than that with temperature, particularly in the western and central regions of the park. Different vegetation types exhibit significant variations in their response to climate change, with deserts and steppes being more sensitive to precipitation. 3) Precipitation is the primary driver of vegetation change in the QMNP, particularly for high-elevation vegetation and herbaceous vegetation. The complex temporal patterns of vegetation response to climate change in the QMNP not only deepen the understanding of the intricate relationship between regional vegetation and climate variability but also provide a methodological reference for global studies on vegetation responses to climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-13
CmpDate: 2024-05-13

Itoh H, Yamashita H, Wada KC, et al (2024)

Real-time emulation of future global warming reveals realistic impacts on the phenological response and quality deterioration in rice.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 121(21):e2316497121.

Decreased production of crops due to climate change has been predicted scientifically. While climate-resilient crops are necessary to ensure food security and support sustainable agriculture, predicting crop growth under future global warming is challenging. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of realistic global warming conditions on rice cultivation. We developed a crop evaluation platform, the agro-environment (AE) emulator, which generates diverse environments by implementing the complexity of natural environmental fluctuations in customized, fully artificial lighting growth chambers. We confirmed that the environmental responsiveness of rice obtained in the fluctuation of artificial environments is similar to those exhibited in natural environments by validating our AE emulator using publicly available meteorological data from multiple years at the same location and multiple locations in the same year. Based on the representative concentration pathway, real-time emulation of severe global warming unveiled dramatic advances in the rice life cycle, accompanied by a 35% decrease in grain yield and an 85% increase in quality deterioration, which is higher than the recently reported projections. The transcriptome dynamism showed that increasing temperature and CO2 concentrations synergistically changed the expression of various genes and strengthened the induction of flowering, heat stress adaptation, and CO2 response genes. The predicted severe global warming greatly alters rice environmental adaptability and negatively impacts rice production. Our findings offer innovative applications of artificial environments and insights for enhancing varietal potential and cultivation methods in the future.

RevDate: 2024-05-13
CmpDate: 2024-05-13

Teichert S, Reddin CJ, M Wisshak (2024)

In situ decrease in rhodolith growth associated with Arctic climate change.

Global change biology, 30(5):e17300.

Rhodoliths built by crustose coralline algae (CCA) are ecosystem engineers of global importance. In the Arctic photic zone, their three-dimensional growth emulates the habitat complexity of coral reefs but with a far slower growth rate, growing at micrometers per year rather than millimeters. While climate change is known to exert various impacts on the CCA's calcite skeleton, including geochemical and structural alterations, field observations of net growth over decade-long timescales are lacking. Here, we use a temporally explicit model to show that rising ocean temperatures over nearly 100 years were associated with reduced rhodolith growth at different depths in the Arctic. Over the past 90 years, the median growth rate was 85 μm year[-1] but each °C increase in summer seawater temperature decreased growth by a mean of 8.9 μm (95% confidence intervals = 1.32-16.60 μm °C[-1], p < .05). The decrease was expressed for rhodolith occurrences in 11 and 27 m water depth but not at 46 m, also having the shortest time series (1991-2015). Although increasing temperatures can spur plant growth, we suggest anthropogenic climate change has either exceeded the population thermal optimum for these CCA, or synergistic effects of warming, ocean acidification, and/or increasing turbidity impair rhodolith growth. Rhodoliths built by calcitic CCA are important habitat providers worldwide, so decreased growth would lead to yet another facet of anthropogenic habitat loss.

RevDate: 2024-05-14

Atwoli L, Erhabor GE, Gbakima AA, et al (2024)

COP27 Climate Change Conference: Urgent action needed for Africa and the world: Wealthy nations must step up support for Africa and vulnerable countries in addressing past, present and future impacts of climate change.

Neuro-oncology practice, 11(3):e4-e6.

RevDate: 2024-05-13

Stoian IM, Pârvu S, DG Minca (2024)

Relationship between Climate Change, Air Pollution and Allergic Diseases Caused by Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Common Ragweed).

Maedica, 19(1):94-105.

Objective: Influence of climate change and outdoor air pollution (through anthropogenic factors, including heavy traffic, industry and other human activities polluting the environment), which contribute to global warming and increase the allergenicity of some plants (common ragweed) on allergenic patterns, with a direct negative impact on human health, causing or exacerbating allergic respiratory diseases such as bronchial asthma and allergic rhinitis, changing the pattern of respiratory tract infections and premature deaths in Europe. The present study aims to highlight the link between climate change, outdoor air pollution, altered allergenicity of palms and possible behavioural risk factors in the environment. Methods:The clinical studies selected in this research highlighted the links between climate change, air pollutants and the occurrence/exacerbation of aeroallergen-induced respiratory disease; climate change (as an inducer of allergic respiratory disease), increasing global mean ambient air temperature and aeroallergens; climate change, global warming, [CO2] concentration and aeroallergens; climate change, atmospheric humidity, dust storms and aeroallergens; urbanisation (anthropogenic influence), air pollution and aeroallergens; potential of different plant species (common ragweed) for Ni accumulation and possible effects on the human body. Results:The medical implications of increased atmospheric [CO2] concentration are either direct (effect of [CO2] on human physiology and pathophysiology) or indirect (alteration of plant physiology associated with human disease). In an urban area with high [CO2] concentrations, ragweed grows faster, flowers earlier and more intensively, which will lead to increased pollen production compared to rural areas. Over time, climate change leads to changes in allergen (common ragweed) patterns, followed by effects on human health (causing or exacerbating allergic respiratory diseases such as bronchial asthma and allergic rhinitis and changing the pattern of respiratory tract infections). Conclusion:Climate change is changing air pollution patterns, particularly in urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on human health. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change. Lifestyle adjustments are important to mitigate the health effects of air pollution and reduce the occurrence and progression of respiratory diseases.

RevDate: 2024-05-13

Shaikh MK, Joshi A, HG Mendhe (2024)

Climate change impact on human health and strategies to combat.

Journal of family medicine and primary care, 13(3):1121-1122.

RevDate: 2024-05-13

Gabay G, MA Flaishman (2024)

Genetic and molecular regulation of chilling requirements in pear: breeding for climate change resilience.

Frontiers in plant science, 15:1347527.

Pear (Pyrus spp.) is a deciduous fruit tree that requires exposure to sufficient chilling hours during the winter to establish dormancy, followed by favorable heat conditions during the spring for normal vegetative and floral budbreak. In contrast to most temperate woody species, apples and pears of the Rosaceae family are insensitive to photoperiod, and low temperature is the major factor that induces growth cessation and dormancy. Most European pear (Pyrus Communis L.) cultivars need to be grown in regions with high chilling unit (CU) accumulation to ensure early vegetative budbreak. Adequate vegetative budbreak time will ensure suitable metabolite accumulation, such as sugars, to support fruit set and vegetative development, providing the necessary metabolites for optimal fruit set and development. Many regions that were suitable for pear production suffer from a reduction in CU accumulation. According to climate prediction models, many temperate regions currently suitable for pear cultivation will experience a similar accumulation of CUs as observed in Mediterranean regions. Consequently, the Mediterranean region can serve as a suitable location for conducting pear breeding trials aimed at developing cultivars that will thrive in temperate regions in the decades to come. Due to recent climatic changes, bud dormancy attracts more attention, and several studies have been carried out aiming to discover the genetic and physiological factors associated with dormancy in deciduous fruit trees, including pears, along with their related biosynthetic pathways. In this review, current knowledge of the genetic mechanisms associated with bud dormancy in European pear and other Pyrus species is summarized, along with metabolites and physiological factors affecting dormancy establishment and release and chilling requirement determination. The genetic and physiological insights gained into the factors regulating pear dormancy phase transition and determining chilling requirements can accelerate the development of new pear cultivars better suited to both current and predicted future climatic conditions.

RevDate: 2024-05-13
CmpDate: 2024-05-13

Joshi S, M Panandikar (2024)

Going Green: Climate Change and Health.

The Journal of the Association of Physicians of India, 72(3):11-12.

The World population doubled from 4 billion humans to 8 billion humans from 1974 to 2022, and it is unlikely to double again. The population of India has now surpassed China, with around 1.4 billion, and we have also already climbed up to become the world's fifth largest economy. Unfortunately, rapid economic development, urbanization, and modernization bring with them deleterious effects on national health, especially if the population does not take preventive measures to protect themselves. Additionally, economic development incorporates rapid industrial and agricultural advances, all of which impact the environment directly.

RevDate: 2024-05-12

Wat CCY, Xin X, Lai RWS, et al (2024)

Impact of environmental factors changes induced by marine heatwaves and heavy precipitation on antibiotic toxicity to Isochrysis galbana: Implications for climate change adaptation.

Marine pollution bulletin, 203:116453 pii:S0025-326X(24)00430-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Isochrysis galbana, a crucial primary producer and food source in aquatic ecosystems, faces increasing challenges from climate change and emerging contaminants like antibiotics. This study investigates the combined effects of sudden temperature increase (representing marine heatwaves) and rapid salinity change (representing extreme precipitation events) on the toxicity of tetracycline (TC) and oxytetracycline (OTC) to I. galbana. Short-term experiments reveal heightened antibiotic toxicity at 31 °C or salinities of 18 PSU, surpassing algal tolerance limits. Long-term tests show decreased inhibition of algal growth on day 9, indicating algal adaptation to the environment. Analyses of photosynthesis II efficiency, pigment content, and macromolecular composition support this, suggesting adaptation mechanism activation. While algae acclimate to the environment during long-term antibiotic exposure, extreme weather conditions may compromise this adaptation. These findings have implications for managing antibiotics in aquatic environments under climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-13
CmpDate: 2024-05-11

Vrselja I, Pandžić M, Rihtarić ML, et al (2024)

Media exposure to climate change information and pro-environmental behavior: the role of climate change risk judgment.

BMC psychology, 12(1):262.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media, cognitive and emotional aspects of climate change risk judgment, and pro-environmental behavior (PEB).

METHOD: A cross-sectional online study was conducted on a quota sample of 1,075 participants (51.9% women) aged 18-79 years. Participants self-reported their exposure to climate change-related information in traditional (e.g. television) and modern media (e.g. social networks), cognitive assessment of climate change risk, level of worry about climate change, and the frequency of PEB.

RESULTS: Structural equation modeling showed a good fit for the parallel mediation model, involving cognitive risk judgment and worry as mediators between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media and PEB. Exposure to climate change information in traditional media had indirect effect on PEB through heightened worry, but not cognitive risk judgment. In contrast, exposure to climate change information in modern media had no indirect effect on PEB.

CONCLUSION: Since the link between exposure to climate change information in traditional media and PEB has been shown to be mediated by climate change worry, it is important to enhance the coverage of climate change in traditional media in Croatia, taking care to offer solutions to reduce possible negative impact on people's well-being.

RevDate: 2024-05-11
CmpDate: 2024-05-11

Anonymous (2024)

Strengthened global capacities on climate change and health: WHO training in Madrid.

Saudi medical journal, 45(5):545-546.

RevDate: 2024-05-11

Chen S, Xiao Y, Xiao Z, et al (2024)

Suitable habitat shifts and ecological niche overlay assessments among benthic Oplegnathus species in response to climate change.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(24)01034-X [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has had a significant impact on many marine organisms. To investigate the effects of environmental changes on deep-water benthic fishes, we selected the genus Oplegnathus and applied species distribution modeling and ecological niche modeling. From the last glacial maximum to the present, the three Oplegnathus species (O. conwayi, O. robinsoni, and O. peaolopesi) distributed in the Cape of Good Hope region of southern Africa experienced fitness zone fluctuations of 39.9%, 13%, and 5.7%, respectively. In contrast, O. fasciatus and O. punctatus, which were primarily distributed in the western Pacific Ocean, had fitness zone fluctuations of -6.5% and 11.7%, respectively. Neither the O. insignis nor the O. woodward varied by more than 5% over the period. Under future environmental conditions, the range of variation in fitness zones for the three southern African Oplegnathus species was expected to be between -30.8% and -26.5%, while the range of variation in fitness zones for the two western Pacific stonefish species was expected to remain below 13%. In addition, the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. insignis was projected to be between -2.3% and 7.1%, and the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. woodward is projected to be between -5.7% and -2%. The results indicated that O. fasciatus and O. punctatus had a wide distribution and high expansion potential, while Oplegnathus species might have originated in western Pacific waters. Our results showed that benthic fishes were highly adaptable to extreme environments, such as the last glacial maximum. The high ecological niche overlap between Oplegnathus species in the same region suggested that they competed with each other. Future research could explore the impacts of environmental change on marine organisms and make conservation and management recommendations.

RevDate: 2024-05-11

González-Herrero S, Lemus-Canovas M, P Pereira (2024)

Climate change in cold regions.

Cold regions around the world include Arctic, Antarctic and High Mountain regions featuring low temperatures, ice-covered landscapes, permafrost, and unique ecologic interrelations. These environments are among the most sensitive to climate change and are changing rapidly as the global climate gets warmer. This editorial explores the complexity of the impacts of climate change on cold regions, highlighting recent changes across Earth system. The Special Issue here presented compiles studies that explore the climate change in different cold regions from various perspectives, including paleoclimatic reconstructions, isotherm shifts and climate projections. Despite progress, significant questions remain, demanding interdisciplinary approaches to better understand the interconnected factors shaping cold regions.

RevDate: 2024-05-13
CmpDate: 2024-05-11

Blanca-Reyes I, Lechuga V, Llebrés MT, et al (2024)

Under Stress: Searching for Genes Involved in the Response of Abies pinsapo Boiss to Climate Change.

International journal of molecular sciences, 25(9):.

Currently, Mediterranean forests are experiencing the deleterious effects of global warming, which mainly include increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in the region. Relict Abies pinsapo fir forests, endemic in the southern Iberian Peninsula, are especially sensitive to these recent environmental disturbances, and identifying the genes involved in the response of this endangered tree species to climate-driven stresses is of paramount importance for mitigating their effects. Genomic resources for A. pinsapo allow for the analysis of candidate genes reacting to warming and aridity in their natural habitats. Several members of the complex gene families encoding late embryogenesis abundant proteins (LEAs) and heat shock proteins (HSPs) have been found to exhibit differential expression patterns between wet and dry seasons when samples from distinct geographical locations and dissimilar exposures to the effects of climate change were analyzed. The observed changes were more perceptible in the roots of trees, particularly in declining forests distributed at lower altitudes in the more vulnerable mountains. These findings align with previous studies and lay the groundwork for further research on the molecular level. Molecular and genomic approaches offer valuable insights for mitigating climate stress and safeguarding this endangered conifer.

RevDate: 2024-05-11

Kos J, Radić B, Lešić T, et al (2024)

Climate Change and Mycotoxins Trends in Serbia and Croatia: A 15-Year Review.

Foods (Basel, Switzerland), 13(9): pii:foods13091391.

This review examines the 15-year presence of mycotoxins in food from Serbia and Croatia to provide a comprehensive overview of trends. Encompassing the timeframe from 2009 to 2023, this study integrates data from both countries and investigates climate change patterns. The results from Serbia focus primarily on maize and milk and show a strong dependence of contamination on weather conditions. However, there is limited data on mycotoxins in cereals other than maize, as well as in other food categories. Conversely, Croatia has a broader spectrum of studies, with significant attention given to milk and maize, along with more research on other cereals, meat, and meat products compared to Serbia. Over the investigated 15-year period, both Serbia and Croatia have experienced notable shifts in climate, including fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, and humidity levels. These changes have significantly influenced agriculture, consequently affecting the occurrence of mycotoxins in various food products. The results summarized in this 15-year review indicate the urgent need for further research and action to address mycotoxins contamination in Serbian and Croatian food supply chains. This urgency is further emphasized by the changing climatic conditions and their potential to exacerbate public health and food safety risks associated with mycotoxins.

RevDate: 2024-05-10
CmpDate: 2024-05-10

Phelan JN, Van Houtven G, Clark CM, et al (2024)

Climate change could negate U.S. forest ecosystem service benefits gained through reductions in nitrogen and sulfur deposition.

Scientific reports, 14(1):10767.

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) impact the health and productivity of forests. Here, we explored the potential impacts of these environmental stressors on ecosystem services provided by future forests in the contiguous U.S. We found that all stand-level services benefitted (+ 2.6 to 8.1%) from reductions in N+S deposition, largely attributable to positive responses to reduced S that offset the net negative effects of lower N levels. Sawtimber responded positively (+ 0.5 to 0.6%) to some climate change, but negatively (- 2.4 to - 3.8%) to the most extreme scenarios. Aboveground carbon (C) sequestration and forest diversity were negatively impacted by all modelled changes in climate. Notably, the most extreme climate scenario eliminated gains in all three services achieved through reduced deposition. As individual tree species responded differently to climate change and atmospheric deposition, associated services unique to each species increased or decreased under future scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change should be considered when evaluating the benefits of N and S air pollution policies on the services provided by U.S. forests.

RevDate: 2024-05-10
CmpDate: 2024-05-10

Chaves LF, Friberg MD, Pascual M, et al (2024)

Community-serving research addressing climate change impacts on vector-borne diseases.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 8(5):e334-e341.

The impacts of climate change on vector-borne diseases are uneven across human populations. This pattern reflects the effect of changing environments on the biology of transmission, which is also modulated by social and other inequities. These disparities are also linked to research outcomes that could be translated into tools for transmission reduction, but are not necessarily actionable in the communities where transmission occurs. The transmission of vector-borne diseases could be averted by developing research that is both hypothesis-driven and community-serving for populations affected by climate change, where local communities interact as equal partners with scientists, developing and implementing research projects with the aim of improving community health. In this Personal View, we share five principles that have guided our research practice to serve the needs of communities affected by vector-borne diseases.

RevDate: 2024-05-10

Huang Y, Long H, Jiang Y, et al (2024)

Motivating factors of farmers' adaptation behaviors to climate change in China: A meta-analysis.

Journal of environmental management, 359:121105 pii:S0301-4797(24)01091-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Adapting to climate change is critical to building sustainable and resilient agricultural systems. Understanding farmers' perceptions of climate change has become the key to the effective implementation of climate change adaptation policies. This research draws multidisciplinary attention to how farmers participate in decision-making on adaptation behaviors and provides useful insights for realizing synergies between environmental change and agricultural production. In this work, we conducted a meta-analysis of 63 quantitative studies on Chinese farmers' adaptation to climate change to assess the relationship between motivational factors and adaptation behavior. Our analysis highlights that farmers' perceptions of precipitation changes are often inaccurate; however, other psychological factors, such as perception, experience, and risk attitude, significantly positively impact their adaptation behavior. In addition, different climate regions are the main source of high heterogeneity in inter-study comparisons of climate change perception, and the effect of climate regions may therefore constitute a moderating factor that weakens the positive relationship between climate change perception and adaptive behavior. Furthermore, this study highlights the need to intervene at the household level to enhance farmers' adaptability to climate change, which includes providing support through income diversification, early warning information services, training, assistance, credit, subsidies, and other resources. In the future, research on how perception, experience, and risk interact to affect adaptive behavior should be strengthened.

RevDate: 2024-05-10
CmpDate: 2024-05-10

Rosso AA, Casement B, Chung AK, et al (2024)

Plasticity of Gene Expression and Thermal Tolerance: Implications for Climate Change Vulnerability in a Tropical Forest Lizard.

Ecological and evolutionary physiology, 97(2):81-96.

AbstractTropical ectotherms are thought to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they have evolved in temporally stable thermal environments and therefore have decreased tolerance for thermal variability. Thus, they are expected to have narrow thermal tolerance ranges, live close to their upper thermal tolerance limits, and have decreased thermal acclimation capacity. Although models often predict that tropical forest ectotherms are especially vulnerable to rapid environmental shifts, these models rarely include the potential for plasticity of relevant traits. We measured phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance and thermal preference as well as multitissue transcriptome plasticity in response to warmer temperatures in a species that previous work has suggested is highly vulnerable to climate warming, the Panamanian slender anole lizard (Anolis apletophallus). We found that many genes, including heat shock proteins, were differentially expressed across tissues in response to short-term warming. Under long-term warming, the voluntary thermal maxima of lizards also increased, although thermal preference exhibited only limited plasticity. Using these data, we modeled changes in the activity time of slender anoles through the end of the century under climate change and found that plasticity should delay declines in activity time by at least two decades. Our results suggest that slender anoles, and possibly other tropical ectotherms, can alter the expression of genes and phenotypes when responding to shifting environmental temperatures and that plasticity should be considered when predicting the future of organisms under a changing climate.

RevDate: 2024-05-10
CmpDate: 2024-05-10

Siwertsson A, Lindström U, Aune M, et al (2024)

Rapid climate change increases diversity and homogenizes composition of coastal fish at high latitudes.

Global change biology, 30(5):e17273.

Rapid warming at high latitudes triggers poleward shifts of species' distributions that impact marine biodiversity. In the open sea, the documented redistributions of fish lead to a borealization of Arctic fauna. A climate-driven borealization and increased species diversity at high latitudes are also expected in coastal fish communities, but they have not been previously documented on a large, biogeographic scale. Here, we investigate the impact of temperature change over the last 25 years on fish communities along the coast of Norway. The study area, spanning different ecoclimatic zones between 62° and 71° N, harbors over 200 species of boreal and Arctic fish. Several of these fish species are harvested by coastal and indigenous communities, influencing settlement geography and livelihood. The long-term data on coastal water temperatures and fish species were obtained from monitoring stations and scientific surveys. Water temperature measured at three fixed sampling stations distributed along the coast show increased temperatures during the study period. The fish species distribution and abundance data were obtained from the annually standardized scientific bottom trawl survey program. Fish species richness, which was highest in the south, increased with warming first in the south and then, gradually, further north, eventually affecting biodiversity in the whole study area. Fish community composition showed a distinct latitudinal pattern early in the study, with Arctic fish species confined to the north and boreal species dominating the south. The poleward shifts eventually eroded this zoogeographic pattern, resulting in more boreal fish species in the north and an increased homogenization of species composition along the Norwegian coast. The climate-driven reorganization of fish communities affects coastal ecosystems that are exposed to fisheries, aquaculture, and other rapidly expanding human activities, stressing the urgent need for a climate adaptation of integrated coastal management.

RevDate: 2024-05-10

Radua J, De Prisco M, Oliva V, et al (2024)

Impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health outcomes: an umbrella review of global evidence.

World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA), 23(2):244-256.

The impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health has recently raised strong concerns. However, a comprehensive overview analyzing the existing evidence while addressing relevant biases is lacking. This umbrella review systematically searched the PubMed/Medline, Scopus and PsycINFO databases (up to June 26, 2023) for any systematic review with meta-analysis investigating the association of air pollution or climate change with mental health outcomes. We used the R metaumbrella package to calculate and stratify the credibility of the evidence according to criteria (i.e., convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak) that address several biases, complemented by sensitivity analyses. We included 32 systematic reviews with meta-analysis that examined 284 individual studies and 237 associations of exposures to air pollution or climate change hazards and mental health outcomes. Most associations (n=195, 82.3%) involved air pollution, while the rest (n=42, 17.7%) regarded climate change hazards (mostly focusing on temperature: n=35, 14.8%). Mental health outcomes in most associations (n=185, 78.1%) involved mental disorders, followed by suicidal behavior (n=29, 12.4%), access to mental health care services (n=9, 3.7%), mental disorders-related symptomatology (n=8, 3.3%), and multiple categories together (n=6, 2.5%). Twelve associations (5.0%) achieved convincing (class I) or highly suggestive (class II) evidence. Regarding exposures to air pollution, there was convincing (class I) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to solvents and a higher incidence of dementia or cognitive impairment (odds ratio, OR=1.139), and highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to some pollutants and higher risk for cognitive disorders (higher incidence of dementia with high vs. low levels of carbon monoxide, CO: OR=1.587; higher incidence of vascular dementia per 1 μg/m[3] increase of nitrogen oxides, NOx: hazard ratio, HR=1.004). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between exposure to airborne particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM10) during the second trimester of pregnancy and the incidence of post-partum depression (OR=1.023 per 1 μg/m[3] increase); and for the association between short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and schizophrenia relapse (risk ratio, RR=1.005 and 1.004 per 1 μg/m[3] increase, respectively 5 and 7 days after exposure). Regarding climate change hazards, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased temperature and suicide- or mental disorders-related mortality (RR=1.024), suicidal behavior (RR=1.012), and hospital access (i.e., hospitalization or emergency department visits) due to suicidal behavior or mental disorders (RR=1.011) or mental disorders only (RR=1.009) (RR values per 1°C increase). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased apparent temperature (i.e., the temperature equivalent perceived by humans) and suicidal behavior (RR=1.01 per 1°C increase). Finally, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between the temporal proximity of cyclone exposure and severity of symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (r=0.275). Although most of the above associations were small in magnitude, they extend to the entire world population, and are therefore likely to have a substantial impact. This umbrella review classifies and quantifies for the first time the global negative impacts that air pollution and climate change can exert on mental health, identifying evidence-based targets that can inform future research and population health actions.

RevDate: 2024-05-11

Mondal S, R Martinez-Garcia (2024)

Editorial: Climate change and developmental physiology.

Frontiers in physiology, 15:1408809.

RevDate: 2024-05-09
CmpDate: 2024-05-09

Walas Ł, Alipour S, Haq SM, et al (2024)

The potential range of west Asian apple species Malus orientalis Uglitzk. under climate change.

BMC plant biology, 24(1):381.

The wild relatives of cultivated apples would be an ideal source of diversity for breeding new varieties, which could potentially grow in diverse habitats shaped by climate change. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the potential distribution of these species. The aim of the presented work was the understand the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution and habitat fragmentation of Caucasian crab apple (Malus orientalis Uglitzk.) and the designation of areas of high interest according to climatic conditions. We used the MaxEnt models and Morphological-Spatial Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate the potential distribution, suitability changes, habitat fragmentation, and connectivity throughout the species range in Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Russia, and Iran. The results revealed that the potentially suitable range of M. orientalis encompasses 858,877 km[2], 635,279 km[2] and 456,795 km[2] under the present, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The range fragmentation analysis demonstrated a notable shift in the edge/core ratio, which increased from 50.95% in the current scenario to even 67.70% in the future. The northern part of the range (Armenia, northern Georgia, southern Russia), as well as the central and western parts of Hyrcania will be a core of the species range with suitable habitats and a high connectivity between M. orientalis populations and could work as major refugia for the studied species. However, in the Zagros and central Turkey, the potential range will shrink due to the lack of suitable climatic conditions, and the edge/core ratio will grow. In the southern part of the range, a decline of M. orientalis habitats is expected due to changing climatic conditions. The future outlook suggests that the Hyrcanian forest and the Caucasus region could serve as important refuges for M. orientalis. This study helps to understand spatial changes in species' range in response to climate change and can help develop conservation strategies. This is all the more important given the species' potential use in future breeding programs aimed at enriching the gene pool of cultivated apple varieties.

RevDate: 2024-05-09

Shafaati M, Salehi M, M Zare (2024)

The twin challenges of longevity and climate change in controlling antimicrobial resistance.

The Journal of antibiotics [Epub ahead of print].

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the global health challenges of the 21st century that is faced with the twin threats of global climate change and greater longevity, which pose a synergistic risk to the management of AMR. Antimicrobial agents are in high demand due to the challenges faced by increasing life expectancy and the dynamic changes in disease ecology prompted by climate change. In light of global aging and climate change, the complexity and importance of addressing antibiotic resistance are further highlighted by this interplay of issues.

RevDate: 2024-05-09
CmpDate: 2024-05-09

Anonymous (2024)

Climate Change and Skin Health.

The Australasian journal of dermatology, 65 Suppl 1:29.

RevDate: 2024-05-09

Klepac P, Hsieh JL, Ducker CL, et al (2024)

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene pii:7656506 [Epub ahead of print].

To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

RevDate: 2024-05-09

Harifidy RZ, Hiroshi I, Harivelo RZM, et al (2024)

Assessing future intra-basin water availability in madagascar: Accounting for climate change, population growth, and land use change.

Water research, 257:121711 pii:S0043-1354(24)00612-2 [Epub ahead of print].

The Major River Basins in Madagascar (MRBM) play a crucial role in providing water to the Malagasy population as well as the ecosystem. Little is known about the impact of climate change on these basins, and it is not clear what factors have the most significant impact on them. There are two central objectives of this study: 1. To assess the future potential water available for daily life and agriculture use across the MRBM. 2. To compare the projected change within the MRBM with the historical trends analysis and identify the water-stressed basins. In this paper, a new method for assessing the future available Intra-basin water resources combined with the impacts of climate change, land use, and population is proposed. Three imbalance indicators are introduced to quantify the spatial availability (indicator N°1), distribution (indicator N°2), and variability (indicator N°3) of the Potential Water Resources (PWR) available and have been applied to the MRBM. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, results showed a decreasing trend of the PWR in most of the basins by 2050 with a rise in evapotranspiration and a decline in precipitation. The increasing trend and uneven distribution of the population and agricultural land upstream/downstream are found to cause the reduction of the PWR available per capita (by 37 %) and agriculture area (by 69 %) across the MRBM. This study predicts water scarcity for most of the basins by 2050, especially in the Mangoro and Onilahy Basins. Upstream populations are expected to grow in Mahajamba, Mahavavy, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Tsiribihina, Mangoro, Onilahy, Mananara, and Mandrare basins, along with an expansion of the downstream agricultural land in Sofia, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Mangoky, and Mandrare basins. These findings enhance the cause-effect relationship between climate change, land use change, population growth, and water scarcity in the MRBM. Urgent action is therefore needed for an efficient and sustainable management of these water-stressed basins.

RevDate: 2024-05-09
CmpDate: 2024-05-09

Losos EC, Pfaff A, SL Pimm (2024)

Tackling debt, biodiversity loss, and climate change.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 384(6696):618-621.

Experience tells us how to maximize debt-for-nature effectiveness.

RevDate: 2024-05-09

Bai Q, Chen H, Li G, et al (2024)

Research on the impact of climate change on the income gap between urban and rural areas-empirical analysis based on provincial panel data in China.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas is the key to achieving common prosperity in China. On the basis of analyzing the mechanism of climate change's impact on urban-rural income gap, this article empirically analyzes the impact of climate change on urban-rural income gap using provincial-level panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020. Research indicates that climate change significantly impacts the urban-rural income gap at the 1% significance level, implying that climate change exacerbates the urban-rural income gap. This widening effect varies significantly across different regions, particularly in the western regions and areas with lower fiscal support for agriculture. Further analysis reveals that there is a mediating role between the total agricultural output value and resource mismatch in the impact of climate change on urban-rural income inequality; the digital rural construction plays a regulatory role in the impact of climate change on the urban-rural income gap. On this basis, policy recommendations are proposed to promote the development of climate-resilient agriculture, improve the meteorological forecast and early warning system, increase financial support, and optimize the allocation of agricultural resources.

RevDate: 2024-05-09
CmpDate: 2024-05-09

Green L, Ashton K, Edmonds N, et al (2024)

Determining the Public Health Impact of Climate Change: A National Study Using a Health Impact Assessment Approach in Wales.

International journal of public health, 69:1606972.

Objective: Climate change is recognised as the biggest threat to global health of the 21st century and impacts on health and wellbeing through a range of factors. Due to this, the need to take action in order to protect population health and wellbeing is becoming ever more urgent. Methods: In 2019, Public Health Wales carried out a comprehensive mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of climate change. Unlike other risk assessments, it appraised the potential impact of climate change on health and inequalities in Wales through participatory workshops, stakeholder consultations, systematic literature reviews and case studies. Results: The HIA findings indicate potential impacts across the wider determinants of health and wellbeing. For example, air quality, excess heat/cold, flooding, economic productivity, infrastructure, and community resilience. A range of impacts were identified across population groups, settings, and geographical areas. Conclusion: These findings can inform decision-makers to prepare for climate change plans and policies using an evidence-informed approach. The work has demonstrated the value of a HIA approach by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in transferrable learning for others.

RevDate: 2024-05-09

Leka J, A Furnham (2024)

Correlates of climate change skepticism.

Frontiers in psychology, 15:1328307.

While much research has examined the correlates of climate change beliefs from an alarmist perspective, less work has systematically measured climate change skepticism. This study aims to create a comprehensive tool capturing climate skeptics' beliefs and test its association with individual difference variables. 502 European adults completed a 22-item questionnaire on climate change (CC) skepticism as well as measures of ambiguity tolerance, belief in a just world (BJW), dark-side personality traits, and self-esteem. Principal components analysis revealed a four dimension structure of CC. Political ideology was the most consistent and significant predictor across the climate change skepticism factors. Dark-side traits, also played a role. Future research should further validate this measure and explore how climate change information could be tailored to different audiences. Understanding the nuances and causes of climate skepticism can enable more effective communication to promote sustainability.

RevDate: 2024-05-09

Mummed BA, Y Seleshi (2024)

Assessment of the effects of climate change on water balance components in the upper Erer subbasin, Ethiopia.

Heliyon, 10(9):e30297.

Eastern Ethiopia watersheds are located in transition zone from Arid to semi-humid climate and in expanding to westwards the west annual rainfall is highly declining. This paper explains future hydrological response impacts under changing climate using ensemble average of the CORDEX RCMs for historical (1979-2014) and future (2024-2070) periods. The result revels the monthly average temperature varies (0.04-6.25°C) for RCP-4.5, while it varies (0.03-6.59°oC) for RCP-8.5. The monthly average rainfall to be decline by 90.71 mm and rise by 211. 22 mm for RCP-4.5, while it is going to decline by 84.97 mm and rise by 235.62 mm for RCP-8.5. The adjusted SWAT model was used to detect the changes of projected hydrological response from reference period. Balance components of the baseline period was compared to future period. The result shows the change in decrease of annual mean surface flow (4.98 %-5.63 %), groundwater flow (5.63 %-6.68 %), evapotranspiration (2.45 %-2.57 %) and water yield (5.54 %-5.21 %) to be expected from RCP-4.5 to RCP-8.5. The findings of this paper provide valuable assistance to water resource planners by enhancing their comprehension of change in climate effects at local level.

RevDate: 2024-05-08
CmpDate: 2024-05-08

Karim N, Hod R, Wahab MIA, et al (2024)

Projecting non-communicable diseases attributable to air pollution in the climate change era: a systematic review.

BMJ open, 14(5):e079826 pii:bmjopen-2023-079826.

OBJECTIVES: Climate change is a major global issue with significant consequences, including effects on air quality and human well-being. This review investigated the projection of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to air pollution under different climate change scenarios.

DESIGN: This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 flow checklist. A population-exposure-outcome framework was established. Population referred to the general global population of all ages, the exposure of interest was air pollution and its projection, and the outcome was the occurrence of NCDs attributable to air pollution and burden of disease (BoD) based on the health indices of mortality, morbidity, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost and years lived with disability.

DATA SOURCES: The Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE and EBSCOhost databases were searched for articles published from 2005 to 2023.

The eligible articles were evaluated using the modified scale of a checklist for assessing the quality of ecological studies.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers searched, screened and selected the included studies independently using standardised methods. The risk of bias was assessed using the modified scale of a checklist for ecological studies. The results were summarised based on the projection of the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution.

RESULTS: This review included 11 studies from various countries. Most studies specifically investigated various air pollutants, specifically particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides and ozone. The studies used coupled-air quality and climate modelling approaches, and mainly projected health effects using the concentration-response function model. The NCDs attributable to air pollution included cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, coronary heart disease and lower respiratory infections. Notably, the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution was projected to decrease in a scenario that promotes reduced air pollution, carbon emissions and land use and sustainable socioeconomics. Contrastingly, the BoD of NCDs was projected to increase in a scenario involving increasing population numbers, social deprivation and an ageing population.

CONCLUSION: The included studies widely reported increased premature mortality, CVD and respiratory disease attributable to PM2.5. Future NCD projection studies should consider emission and population changes in projecting the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution in the climate change era.


RevDate: 2024-05-08

PLOS ONE Staff (2024)

Correction: Seasonality, climate change, and food security during pregnancy among Indigenous and non-Indigenous women in rural Uganda: Implications for maternal-infant health.

PloS one, 19(5):e0303592.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247198.].

RevDate: 2024-05-08
CmpDate: 2024-05-08

Schön J, Gentsch N, P Breunig (2024)

Cover crops support the climate change mitigation potential of agroecosystems.

PloS one, 19(5):e0302139.

Cover crops have the potential to mitigate climate change by reducing negative impacts of agriculture on ecosystems. This study is first to quantify the net climate change mitigation impact of cover crops including land-use effects. A systematic literature and data review was conducted to identify major drivers for climate benefits and costs of cover crops in maize (Zea maize L.) production systems. The results indicate that cover crops lead to a net climate change mitigation impact (NCCMI) of 3.30 Mg CO2e ha-1 a-1. We created four scenarios with different impact weights of the drivers and all of them showing a positive NCCMI. Carbon land benefit, the carbon opportunity costs based on maize yield gains following cover crops, is the major contributor to the NCCMI (34.5% of all benefits). Carbon sequestration is the second largest contributor (33.8%). The climate costs of cover crops are mainly dominated by emissions from their seed production and foregone benefits due to land use for cover crops seeds. However, these two costs account for only 15.8% of the benefits. Extrapolating these results, planting cover crops before all maize acreage in the EU results in a climate change mitigation of 49.80 million Mg CO2e a-1, which is equivalent to 13.0% of the EU's agricultural emissions. This study highlights the importance of incorporating cover crops into sustainable cropping systems to minimize the agricultural impact to climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-08

Navrátil T, Rohovec J, Nováková T, et al (2024)

Quarter century of mercury litterfall at a coniferous forest responding to climate change, Central Europe.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

This work evaluated the 25-year-long trends (1994-2018) in mercury (Hg) concentrations and fluxes in spruce litterfall at a forest research plot Načetín (NAC) recovering from acidic deposition in the Ore Mountains, Czech Republic. The mean litterfall Hg deposition averaged 51 ± 18 µg m[-2] year[-1], which has been the highest litterfall Hg deposition reported up to date on the European continent. In contrast, the wet deposition (2017-2019) was an order of magnitude lower averaging at 2.5 ± 1.5 µg m[-2] year[-1]. All the spruce litterfall components bark, twigs, needles, cones, and a mixture of unidentified fragments had elevated mean Hg concentrations relative to background sites averaging 256 ± 77, 234 ± 62, 119 ± 23, 95 ± 14, and 44 ± 15 µg kg[-1], respectively. Elevated litterfall Hg deposition and concentrations were attributed to the nearby local Hg emission source-coal-fired power plants. Temporally, the decrease of Czech Hg emissions since the 1990s was reflected by the decreasing trend of Hg concentrations in litterfall bark, cones, and twigs, while in needles and other material, Hg increased but insignificantly. Total litterfall ratios of Hg/C, Hg/N, and Hg/S were lower than those in soil O horizons averaging at 0.23 ± 0.04, 9.5 ± 2.0, and 170 ± 37 μg g[-1], respectively. Since the beginning of monitoring, total litterfall Hg/C exhibited no trend, Hg/N decreased, and Hg/S increased. The litterfall biomass deposition averaging at 469 ± 176 g m[-2] year[-1] increased through time resulting in an increased Hg litterfall deposition at NAC by 1.1 µg m[-2] year[-1] despite the decreases in Czech Hg emissions. Peaks of annual litterfall Hg deposition up to 96 µg m[-2] year[-1] at NAC during the 25 years of monitoring resulted from weather extremes such as rime-snow accumulation, wind gusts, droughts, and insect infestation, which all significantly affected the annual biomass deposition. Based on our observations, further increases in biomass and litterfall Hg deposition rates can be expected due to the onset of bark beetle infestation and the increasing number of droughts caused by climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-08
CmpDate: 2024-05-08

Zhao Z, Yang L, Long J, et al (2024)

Predicting suitable areas for Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) under climate change and implications for management.

Journal of insect science (Online), 24(3):.

Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study's findings contribute to our understanding of climate change's impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.

RevDate: 2024-05-09

Synolakis CE, GM Karagiannis (2024)

Wildfire risk management in the era of climate change.

PNAS nexus, 3(5):pgae151.

The August 8, 2023R Lahaina fire refocused attention on wildfires, public alerts, and emergency management. Wildfire risk is on the rise, precipitated through a combination of climate change, increased development in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Renewed emphasis is needed on emergency alerts and community evacuations. Land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Here, we propose a long-term strategy consisting of integrating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies, and we discuss new technologies and possible scientific breakthroughs.

RevDate: 2024-05-07

McCann SR (2024)

Climate change in wine and haematology.

RevDate: 2024-05-07
CmpDate: 2024-05-07

Kephe PN, Mkuhlani S, Rusere F, et al (2024)

Use of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa.

PloS one, 19(5):e0301254.

Oil seed crops are the second most important field crops after cereals in the agricultural economy globally. The use and demand for oilseed crops such as groundnut, soybean and sunflower have grown significantly, but climate change is expected to alter the agroecological conditions required for oilseed crop production. This study aims to present an approach that utilizes decision-making tools to assess the potential climate change impacts on groundnut, soybean and sunflower yields and the greenhouse gas emissions from the management of the crops. The Decision Support Tool for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.7), a dynamic crop model and the Cool Farm Tool, a GHG calculator, was used to simulate yields and estimate GHG emissions from these crops, respectively. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), three nitrogen (0, 75, and 150 kg/ha) and phosphorous (0, 30 and 60 P kg/ha) fertilizer rates at three sites in Limpopo, South Africa (Ofcolaco, Syferkuil and Punda Maria) were used in field trials for calibrating the models. The highest yield was achieved by sunflower across all crops, years and sites. Soybean yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050, except at Ofcolaco, where yield increases of at least 15.6% is projected under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Positive climate change impacts are predicted for groundnut at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil by 2030 and 2050, while negative impacts with losses of up to 50% are projected under RCP8.5 by 2050 at Punda Maria. Sunflower yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050. A comparison of the climate change impacts across sites shows that groundnut yield is projected to increase under climate change while notable yield losses are projected for sunflower and soybean. GHG emissions from the management of each crop showed that sunflower and groundnut production had the highest and lowest emissions across all sites respectively. With positive climate change impacts, a reduction of GHG emissions per ton per hectare was projected for groundnuts at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil and for sunflower in Ofcolaco in the future. However, the carbon footprint from groundnut is expected to increase by 40 to 107% in Punda Maria for the period up to 2030 and between 70-250% for 2050, with sunflower following a similar trend. We conclude that climate change will potentially reduce yield for oilseed crops while management will increase emissions. Therefore, in designing adaptation measures, there is a need to consider emission effects to gain a holistic understanding of how both climate change impacts on crops and mitigation efforts could be targeted.

RevDate: 2024-05-06

Brini R, Toumi H, Chaouech O, et al (2024)

Unveiling asymmetry impacts of economic policy uncertainty on climate change: fresh insights into African Countries.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

This study investigates the influence of economic policy uncertainty on climate change in selected African countries within asymmetric settings. Although previous research has examined the impact of various economic factors on climate change, the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty have not been thoroughly explored, particularly in African countries. We analyze annual data spanning from 1980 to 2017 by utilizing three models: Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL-PMG), Panel Pooled Mean Group-non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL-PMG), and Dumitrescu-Hurlin asymmetric causality tests. According to the results of ARDL-PMG estimation, economic policy uncertainty has a detrimental impact on climate change in the long run. However, the NARDL-PMG estimation suggests that a positive shock in economic policy uncertainty negatively affects long-term climate change mitigation. However, a negative shock has a beneficial effect on climate change in the long term. In African nations, positive and negative changes in economic policy uncertainty failed to generate any significant climate change effects in the short run. The results also reveal that both positive and negative shocks in economic policy may cause climate change in a one-way direction. Based on the findings of our study, we recommend that African policymakers implement programs aimed at reducing economic policy uncertainties to help mitigate the effects of climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-08

Sarkar SK, Rudra RR, Talukdar S, et al (2024)

Future groundwater potential mapping using machine learning algorithms and climate change scenarios in Bangladesh.

Scientific reports, 14(1):10328.

The aim of the study was to estimate future groundwater potential zones based on machine learning algorithms and climate change scenarios. Fourteen parameters (i.e., curvature, drainage density, slope, roughness, rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, lineament density, land use and land cover, general soil types, geology, geomorphology, topographic position index (TPI), topographic wetness index (TWI)) were used in developing machine learning algorithms. Three machine learning algorithms (i.e., artificial neural network (ANN), logistic model tree (LMT), and logistic regression (LR)) were applied to identify groundwater potential zones. The best-fit model was selected based on the ROC curve. Representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 2.5, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 climate scenarios of precipitation were used for modeling future climate change. Finally, future groundwater potential zones were identified for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 based on the best machine learning model and future RCP models. According to findings, ANN shows better accuracy than the other two models (AUC: 0.875). The ANN model predicted that 23.10 percent of the land was in very high groundwater potential zones, whereas 33.50 percent was in extremely high groundwater potential zones. The study forecasts precipitation values under different climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 using an ANN model and shows spatial distribution maps for each scenario. Finally, sixteen scenarios were generated for future groundwater potential zones. Government officials may utilize the study's results to inform evidence-based choices on water management and planning at the national level.

RevDate: 2024-05-06

Chen J, Luo X, Q Ding (2024)

How does climate change risk affect energy poverty? International evidence.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Epub ahead of print].

Based on cross-country data from 2002 to 2019, we explore the impact of climate change risk (CCR) on energy poverty (EP), and the moderating role in the CCR-EP nexus is also discussed. The empirical results suggest that CCR can exacerbate EP, especially for rural areas. Moderating effect analysis shows that financial development, technological innovation, and adaptation readiness can modify the negative impacts of CCR on EP to some extent. Moreover, the impact of CCR on EP is heterogeneous, demonstrating that CCR is more likely to exacerbate EP in countries with low economic development, low economic freedom, high carbon intensity, and the Africa region. Our findings emphasize the challenge of balancing EP alleviation with climate change response and provide the policy guidance to promote coordinated development of CCR management and energy supply security.

RevDate: 2024-05-08
CmpDate: 2024-05-06

Blais BR, JL Koprowski (2024)

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild.

PloS one, 19(5):e0302981.

An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.

RevDate: 2024-05-06
CmpDate: 2024-05-06

Wittemann M, Mujawamariya M, Ntirugulirwa B, et al (2024)

Plasticity and implications of water-use traits in contrasting tropical tree species under climate change.

Physiologia plantarum, 176(3):e14326.

Plants face a trade-off between hydraulic safety and growth, leading to a range of water-use strategies in different species. However, little is known about such strategies in tropical trees and whether different water-use traits can acclimate to warming. We studied five water-use traits in 20 tropical tree species grown at three different altitudes in Rwanda (RwandaTREE): stomatal conductance (gs), leaf minimum conductance (gmin), plant hydraulic conductance (Kplant), leaf osmotic potential (ψo) and net defoliation during drought. We also explored the links between these traits and growth and mortality data. Late successional (LS) species had low Kplant, gs and gmin and, thus, low water loss, while low ψo helped improve leaf water status during drought. Early successional (ES) species, on the contrary, used more water during both moist and dry conditions and exhibited pronounced drought defoliation. The ES strategy was associated with lower mortality and more pronounced growth enhancement at the warmer sites compared to LS species. While Kplant and gmin showed downward acclimation in warmer climates, ψo did not acclimate and gs measured at prevailing temperature did not change. Due to distinctly different water use strategies between successional groups, ES species may be better equipped for a warmer climate as long as defoliation can bridge drought periods.

RevDate: 2024-05-05

Ullah H, Fordham DA, Goldenberg SU, et al (2024)

Combining mesocosms with models reveals effects of global warming and ocean acidification on a temperate marine ecosystem.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

Ocean warming and species exploitation have already caused large-scale reorganization of biological communities across the world. Accurate projections of future biodiversity change require a comprehensive understanding of how entire communities respond to global change. We combined a time-dynamic integrated food web modeling approach (Ecosim) with previous data from community-level mesocosm experiments to determine the independent and combined effects of ocean warming, ocean acidification and fisheries exploitation on a well-managed temperate coastal ecosystem. The mesocosm parameters enabled important physiological and behavioral responses to climate stressors to be projected for trophic levels ranging from primary producers to top predators, including sharks. Through model simulations, we show that under sustainable rates of fisheries exploitation, near-future warming or ocean acidification in isolation could benefit species biomass at higher trophic levels (e.g., mammals, birds, and demersal finfish) in their current climate ranges, with the exception of small pelagic fishes. However, under warming and acidification combined, biomass increases at higher trophic levels will be lower or absent, while in the longer term reduced productivity of prey species is unlikely to support the increased biomass at the top of the food web. We also show that increases in exploitation will suppress any positive effects of human-driven climate change, causing individual species biomass to decrease at higher trophic levels. Nevertheless, total future potential biomass of some fisheries species in temperate areas might remain high, particularly under acidification, because unharvested opportunistic species will likely benefit from decreased competition and show an increase in biomass. Ecological indicators of species composition such as the Shannon diversity index decline under all climate change scenarios, suggesting a trade-off between biomass gain and functional diversity. By coupling parameters from multilevel mesocosm food web experiments with dynamic food web models, we were able to simulate the generative mechanisms that drive complex responses of temperate marine ecosystems to global change. This approach, which blends theory with experimental data, provides new prospects for forecasting climate-driven biodiversity change and its effects on ecosystem processes.

RevDate: 2024-05-04

Goldust M, JM Grant-Kels (2024)

Using AI to help address skin health challenges caused by climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-03

Cretini C, KA Galloway (2024)

Acidic Apple Snails: Effects of Climate Change on The Mechanical Properties of An Invasive Gastropod.

Integrative and comparative biology pii:7664374 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change can directly and indirectly affect species distribution. Warming may allow for invasive species, such as apple snails, to migrate to higher latitudes where temperatures are more conducive to their survival and invasion success. Higher temperatures and lower pH ranges have been previously documented to affect the form and function of calcium carbonate shells, which serve many functions including protection from predators and thermoregulation. This study aimed to quantify differences in the morphology and mechanical properties of invasive apple snail, Pomacea maculata, shells after altering temperature and pH. We mechanically tested shells among three five-week treatments: control, higher temperature, lower pH. Ultimate Strength increased in shells that were exposed to higher temperatures, but Young's Modulus and Peak Load did not differ among control, temperature, and pH treatments. Apple snails in higher temperature tanks increased their shell length over the five-week trials, while snails in lower pH tanks decreased their shell length. Although snail morphometrics did not differ between sexes, male shells exhibited a higher Peak Load, Young's Modulus, and Ultimate Strength compared to female shells. Our findings are consistent with previous gastropod studies, in that a lower pH is associated with a decrease in shell size, and higher temperatures yield larger snail shells with a higher Ultimate Strength. Peak Load did not significantly differ among treatments, which suggests that the cross-sectional area is relatively important when considering this species mechanical performance today and in future climates. Due to the intense nutritional and calcium demands of egg production, female snails may be more susceptible to weakened shells due to low pH environments caused by climate change.

RevDate: 2024-05-06
CmpDate: 2024-05-04

Foláyan MNO, Schroth RJ, Abodunrin O, et al (2024)

Early childhood caries, climate change and the sustainable development goal 13: a scoping review.

BMC oral health, 24(1):524.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable development goal 13 centres on calls for urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. The aim of this scoping review was to map the published literature for existing evidence on the association between the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 and early childhood caries (ECC).

METHODS: The scoping review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines. In August 2023, a search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus using search terms related to SDG13 and ECC. Only English language publications were extracted. There was no restriction on the type of publications included in the study. A summary of studies that met the inclusion criteria was conducted highlighting the countries where the studies were conducted, the study designs employed, the journals (dental/non-dental) in which the studies were published, and the findings. In addition, the SDG13 indicators to which the study findings were linked was reported.

RESULTS: The initial search yielded 113 potential publications. After removing 57 duplicated papers, 56 publications underwent title and abstract screening, and two studies went through full paper review. Four additional papers were identified from websites and searching the references of the included studies. Two of the six retrieved articles were from India, and one was China, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom respectively. One paper was based on an intervention simulation study, two reported findings from archeologic populations and three papers that were commentaries/opinions. In addition, four studies were linked to SDG 13.1 and they suggested an increased risk for caries with climate change. Two studies were linked to SDG 13.2 and they suggested that the practice of pediatric dentistry contributes negatively to environmental degradation. One study provided evidence on caries prevention management strategies in children that can reduce environmental degradation.

CONCLUSION: The evidence on the links between SDG13 and ECC suggests that climate change may increase the risk for caries, and the management of ECC may increase environmental degradation. However, there are caries prevention strategies that can reduce the negative impact of ECC management on the environment. Context specific and inter-disciplinary research is needed to generate evidence for mitigating the negative bidirectional relationships between SDG13 and ECC.

RevDate: 2024-05-06
CmpDate: 2024-05-03

Sharifian S, Mortazavi MS, SL Mohebbi Nozar (2024)

Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change.

Scientific reports, 14(1):10177.

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

RevDate: 2024-05-03

Prabhakar C, Sondekoppam RV, VHY Ip (2024)

The science of climate change and the effect of anaesthetic gas emissions: a reply.

RevDate: 2024-05-03
CmpDate: 2024-05-03

Richards D, Dewhurst Z, Giltrap D, et al (2024)

Tree contributions to climate change adaptation through reduced cattle heat stress and benefits to milk and beef production.

Global change biology, 30(5):e17306.

Cattle heat stress causes billions of dollars' worth of losses to meat and milk production globally, and is projected to become more severe in the future due to climate change. Tree establishment in pastoral livestock systems holds potential to reduce cattle heat stress and thus provide nature-based adaptation. We developed a general model for the impact of trees on cattle heat stress, which can project milk and meat production under future climate scenarios at varying spatial scales. The model incorporates the key microclimate mechanisms influenced by trees, including shade, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. We conducted sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the relative influence of different mechanisms through which trees can impact cattle heat stress, and how tree impacts are influenced by climatic context globally. Trees hold the greatest potential to reduce cattle heat stress in higher latitudes and altitudes, with minor benefits in the lowland tropics. We projected the future contributions of current trees in mitigating climate change impacts on the dairy and beef herds of Aotearoa-New Zealand (A-NZ) in 2070-2080. Trees were simulated to contribute to A-NZ milk yields by over 491 million liters (lower CI = 112 million liters, upper CI = 850 million liters), and meat yields by over 8316 tonnes (lower CI = 2431 tonnes, upper CI = 13,668 tonnes) annually. The total economic contribution of existing trees in mitigating future cattle heat stress was valued at $US 244 million (lower CI = $US 58 million, upper CI = $US 419 million). Our findings demonstrate the importance of existing trees in pastoral landscapes and suggest that strategic tree establishment can be a valuable adaptation option for reducing cattle heat stress under climate change. Tree establishment in the next few years is critical to provide adaptation capacity and economic benefit in future decades.

RevDate: 2024-05-05

Niu YL, Lu F, Liu XJ, et al (2024)

Global climate change: Effects of future temperatures on emergency department visits for mental disorders in Beijing, China.

Environmental research, 252(Pt 3):119044 pii:S0013-9351(24)00948-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Rising temperatures can increase the risk of mental disorders. As climate change intensifies, the future disease burden due to mental disorders may be underestimated. Using data on the number of daily emergency department visits for mental disorders at 30 hospitals in Beijing, China during 2016-2018, the relationship between daily mean temperature and such visits was assessed using a quasi-Poisson model integrated with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Emergency department visits for mental disorders attributed to temperature changes were projected using 26 general circulation models under four climate change scenarios. Stratification analyses were then conducted by disease subtype, sex, and age. The results indicate that the temperature-related health burden from mental disorders was projected to increase consistently throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by high temperatures. The future temperature-related health burden was higher for patients with mental disorders due to the use of psychoactive substances and schizophrenia as well as for women and those aged <65 years. These findings enhance our knowledge of how climate change could affect mental well-being and can be used to advance and refine targeted approaches to mitigating and adapting to climate change with a view on addressing mental disorders.

RevDate: 2024-05-02

Bertucci JI, Blanco Osorio A, Vidal-Liñán L, et al (2024)

Developmental and Biochemical Markers of the Impact of Pollutant Mixtures Under the Effect of Global Climate Change.

Chemosphere pii:S0045-6535(24)01055-5 [Epub ahead of print].

This study investigates the combined impact of microplastics (MP) and Chlorpyriphos (CPF) on sea urchin larvae (Paracentrotus lividus) under the backdrop of ocean warming and acidification. While the individual toxic effects of these pollutants have been previously reported, their combined effects remain poorly understood. Two experiments were conducted using different concentrations of CPF (EC10 and EC50) based on previous studies from our group. MP were adsorbed in CPF to simulate realistic environmental conditions. Additionally, water acidification and warming protocols were implemented to mimic future ocean conditions. Sea urchin embryo toxicity tests were conducted to assess larval development under various treatment combinations of CPF, MP, ocean acidification (OA), and temperature (OW). Morphometric measurements and biochemical analyses were performed to evaluate the effects comprehensively. Results indicate that combined stressors lead to significant morphological alterations, such as increased larval width and reduced stomach volume. Furthermore, biochemical biomarkers like acetylcholinesterase (AChE), glutathione S-transferase (GST), and glutathione reductase (GRx) activities were affected, indicating oxidative stress and impaired detoxification capacity. Interestingly, while temperature increase was expected to enhance larval growth, it instead induced thermal stress, resulting in lower growth rates. This underscores the importance of considering multiple stressors in ecological assessments. Biochemical biomarkers provided early indications of stress responses, complementing traditional growth measurements. The study highlights the necessity of holistic approaches when assessing environmental impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding interactions between pollutants and environmental stressors is crucial for effective conservation strategies. Future research should delve deeper into the impacts at lower biological levels and explore adaptive mechanisms in marine organisms facing multiple stressors. By doing so, we can better anticipate and mitigate the adverse effects of anthropogenic pollutants on marine biodiversity and ecosystem health.

RevDate: 2024-05-02

Coulon N, Pilet S, Lizé A, et al (2024)

Shark critical life stage vulnerability to monthly temperature variations under climate change.

Marine environmental research, 198:106531 pii:S0141-1136(24)00192-2 [Epub ahead of print].

In a 10-month experimental study, we assessed the combined impact of warming and acidification on critical life stages of small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula). Using recently developed frameworks, we disentangled individual and group responses to two climate scenarios projected for 2100 (SSP2-4.5: Middle of the road and SSP5-8.5: Fossil-fueled Development). Seasonal temperature fluctuations revealed the acute vulnerability of embryos to summer temperatures, with hatching success ranging from 82% for the control and SSP2-4.5 treatments to only 11% for the SSP5-8.5 treatment. The death of embryos was preceded by distinct individual growth trajectories between the treatments, and also revealed inter-individual variations within treatments. Embryos with the lowest hatching success had lower yolk consumption rates, and growth rates associated with a lower energy assimilation, and almost all of them failed to transition to internal gills. Within 6 months after hatching, no additional mortality was observed due to cooler temperatures.

RevDate: 2024-05-03

Jinga P, T Manyangadze (2024)

Variable intraspecific response to climate change in a medicinally important African tree species, Vachellia sieberiana (DC.) (paperbark thorn).

Ecology and evolution, 14(5):e11314.

Climate change is predicted to disproportionately impact sub-Saharan Africa, with potential devastating consequences on plant populations. Climate change may, however, impact intraspecific taxa differently. The aim of the study was to determine the current distribution and impact of climate change on three varieties of Vachellia sieberiana, that is, var. sieberiana, var. villosa and var. woodii. Ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were built in "biomod2" using 66, 45, and 137 occurrence records for var. sieberiana, var. villosa, and var. woodii, respectively. The ensemble SDMs were projected to 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 under three general circulation models (GCMs) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The three GCMs were the Canadian Earth System Model version 5, the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model version 6A Low Resolution, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6. The suitable habitat of var. sieberiana predominantly occurs in the Sudanian and Zambezian phytochoria while that of var. villosa largely occurs in the Sudanian phytochorion. The suitable habitat of var. woodii mainly occurs in the Zambezian phyotochorion. There is coexistence of var. villosa and var. sieberiana in the Sudanian phytochorion while var. sieberiana and var. woodii coexist in the Zambezian phytochorion. Under SSP2-4.5 in 2041-2060 and averaged across the three GCMs, the suitable habitat expanded by 33.8% and 119.7% for var. sieberiana and var. villosa, respectively. In contrast, the suitable habitat of var. woodii contracted by -8.4%. Similar trends were observed in 2041-2060 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (38.6%), var. villosa (139.0%), and var. woodii (-10.4%)], in 2081-2100 under SSP2-4.5 [var. sieberiana (4.6%), var. villosa (153.4%), and var. woodii (-14.4%)], and in 2081-2100 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (49.3%), var. villosa (233.4%), and var. woodii (-30.7%)]. Different responses to climate change call for unique management and conservation decisions for the varieties.

RevDate: 2024-05-01

Li C, S Zhang (2024)

Disentangling the impact of climate change, human activities, vegetation dynamics and atmospheric CO2 concentration on soil water use efficiency in global karst landscapes.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)03012-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Soil Water Use Efficiency (SWUE), which quantifies the carbon gain against each unit of soil moisture depletion, represents an essential ecological parameter that delineates the carbon-water coupling within terrestrial ecosystems. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of SWUE, its sensitivity to environmental variables, and the underlying driving mechanisms across various temporal scales in the global karst region are largely uncharted. This study utilized the sensitivity algorithm of partial least squares regression, partial differential equations, and elasticity coefficients to investigate the characteristics of SWUE variations across different climatic zones in the global karst region and their responsiveness to environmental variables. Moreover, the study quantified the individual contributions of climate variability, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, human activities, and vegetation changes to SWUE variations. The results indicated that SWUE across different climatic zones in the global karst region demonstrated an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018, with the most notable improvement observed in the humid zone. SWUE presented regular distribution and variation characteristics across different latitudinal zones at a monthly scale. The sensitivity of SWUE to precipitation was significantly higher compared to its responsiveness to other environmental factors. Additionally, the trend in SWUE's sensitivity to precipitation demonstrated the most significant change. The sensitivity of SWUE to various environmental factors and the trend of this sensitivity in the arid zone revealed significant variation compared to other climatic zones. Gross primary productivity and soil moisture were identified as the intrinsic factors influencing SWUE changes, contributing 16 % and - 84 %, respectively. Climate variability and human activities were identified as the primary exogenous factors contributing to the increase in SWUE, accounting for 76 % and 16 %, respectively. This study advances the understanding of carbon-water coupling in karst regions, providing significant insights into the ecological management of global karst environments amidst climate variations.

RevDate: 2024-05-01

Lima CG, Campos JC, Regos A, et al (2024)

Fire suppression and land-use strategies drive future dynamics of an invasive plant in a fire-prone mountain area under climate change.

Journal of environmental management, 359:120997 pii:S0301-4797(24)00983-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Woody invasive alien species can have profound impacts on ecosystem processes and functions, including fire regulation, which can significantly affect landscape resilience. Acacia dealbata, a widespread invasive alien plant in the Iberian Peninsula, holds well-known fire-adaptation traits (e.g., massive soil seed banks and heat-stimulated seed germination). In this study, we assess to what extent fire suppression and land-use strategies could affect the potential distribution of A. dealbata in a fire-prone transboundary protected mountain area of Portugal and Spain, using Habitat Suitability Models. Specifically, we predicted changes in habitat suitability for A. dealbata between years 2010 and 2050. We explored the potential impacts of two land-use strategies ('Business-as-usual' or 'High Nature Value farmlands') combined with three levels of fire suppression effectiveness using the biomod2 package in R. We also considered the potential effects of two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our modeling approach demonstrated a strong capacity to predict habitat suitability using either climate or land-cover information alone (AUC climate = 0.947; AUC LC = 0.957). According to climate-based models, A. dealbata thrives under conditions characterized by higher precipitation seasonality, higher precipitation in the warmest month, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. Regarding land cover, A. dealbata thrives mainly in landscapes dominated by urban areas and evergreen forest plantations. Our models forecasted that habitat suitability by 2050 could either increase or decrease depending on the specific combinations of fire suppression, land-use, and climate scenarios. Thus, a combination of business-as-usual and fire-exclusion strategies would enhance habitat suitability for the species. Conversely, management promoting High Nature Value farmlands would decrease the available suitable habitat, particularly under low fire suppression efforts. These findings suggest that promoting sustainable farming activities could impede the spread of A. dealbata by reducing habitat availability, while strategies aiming at fire-exclusion could facilitate its expansion, likely by enabling establishment and large seed production. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire-prone invasive species, fire and land-use strategies, and climate change; and thus the need to consider the interactions between land-use and fire management to promote invasive species control and landscape resilience.

RevDate: 2024-05-01

Abate TG, K Elofsson (2024)

Environmental taxation of plastic bags and substitutes: Balancing marine pollution and climate change.

Journal of environmental management, 359:120868 pii:S0301-4797(24)00854-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Several countries have imposed either a ban or a tax on single-use plastic packaging, motivated by their contribution to marine plastic pollution. This may lead consumers to opt for similar unregulated substitutes, potentially undermining or even counteracting the intended effect of the policy instrument. The purpose of this study is to theoretically and empirically compare the environmental and welfare effects of the first-best Pigouvian taxes on both plastic bags and a substitute (paper bags), with two alternative second-best policy instruments: a tax on plastic products alone, and a common uniform tax on all packaging materials. The empirical analysis accounts for two different types of environmental externalities from the use of both bag types: marine pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. It also compares results for two countries, Denmark and the USA, which differ in the demand for plastic and paper bags. The theoretical analysis shows that a unilateral tax on plastic bags should equal the marginal environmental damage of plastic bags minus a fraction of the marginal environmental cost of paper bags, hence being lower than the Pigouvian tax. The optimal common tax should equal a weighted average of the marginal environmental damage of the two bag types and would be lower than the Pigouvian tax on plastics if the marginal external cost of plastic bags exceeds that for paper bags. The empirical analysis shows that for default parameters, the variation in tax level across the studied scenarios is small. It also shows that if Pigouvian taxes cannot be implemented, a common uniform tax on both bag types would result in a higher welfare gain than a tax on plastic bags alone. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the level of the second-best taxes and their associated environmental and welfare impacts are sensitive to assumptions regarding the littering rate and decay rate of plastic bags in the marine environment.

RevDate: 2024-05-01

Iqbal S, Xu J, Arif MS, et al (2024)

Corrigendum to "Could soil microplastic pollution exacerbate climate change? A meta-analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential" [Environ. Res. 252 (2024) 118945/ ER-23-14694R1].

RevDate: 2024-05-01

Clayton S, LA Brown (2024)

Climate Change and Mental Health.

JAMA pii:2818210 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2024-05-01
CmpDate: 2024-05-01

Nelson B, W Faquin (2024)

Climate change is threatening access to cancer care: In this second of a two-part series on cancer and climate change, natural disasters fueled by global warming are creating new obstacles to cancer care for vulnerable communities.

Cancer cytopathology, 132(5):266-267.

RevDate: 2024-05-01

Pareek AV (2024)

Pain in the Time of Climate Change.

Pediatrics pii:197221 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2024-05-01

Yigermal H, Nakachew K, F Assefa (2024)

The effects of seedling transplanting on growth and yield performance of maize (Zea mays L.) for climate change resilience in Burie District, Northwestern Ethiopia: Dataset Article.

Data in brief, 54:110410 pii:S2352-3409(24)00379-2.

Maize is produced throughout the world and it is also a primary staple food crop in many developing countries. The field experiment was conducted during the main rainy season of 2018 in Burie district to study the effects of types and growth stages of seedlings on the growth and yield of transplanted maize (Zea mays L.). Factorial combinations of two types of seedlings (bare rooted and poly bagged); five levels of seedling's growth stages (seedlings of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 true leaf/ves) and one control (direct seeded) were laid down in randomized complete block design with three replications. Data on phenological, vegetative growth and yield-related parameters were collected following standard methods and procedures. All data were subjected to analysis of variance using SAS software, and mean separation for significant treatments was done by LSD. Both main effects affected the number of grains cob[-1], grain, and stover yield highly significantly and days to 50% silking very highly significantly. Types of seedlings affected days to 50% tasselling significantly; and days to 90% physiological maturity and plant height highly significantly. In addition, types of seedlings affected the number of cobs plant[-1], cob length, number of grains row[-1]and biomass yield, very highly significantly. Seedlings' growth stages had a very highly significant effect on days to 50% tasseling and days to 90% physiological maturity. The number of cobs plant[-1], cob length, number of grains row[-1]and biomass yield were also highly significantly affected by seedlings' growth stages. The interaction effect was highly significant on the number of cobs plant[-1], grain, and stover yield and very highly significant on the harvest index. The highest (10.7t ha[-1]) grain yield of maize was found from the transplantation of polybagged seedlings at four true leaf stages. Although it is difficult to conclude based on one season and one location research trial, transplanting of poly-bagged seedlings at four true leaf stages gave superior grain yield. This treatment combination also gave the highest net benefit with an acceptable range of marginal rate of return. Therefore, transplanting polybagged seedlings at four true leaf stages is economically feasible and can be recommended tentatively for Burie District. However; it's also advised to repeat the study in areas having terminal moisture stress for maize production.

RevDate: 2024-05-01

Dunn RR, Kirby KR, Bowern C, et al (2024)

Climate, climate change and the global diversity of human houses.

Evolutionary human sciences, 6:e24 pii:S2513843X24000057.

Globally, human house types are diverse, varying in shape, size, roof type, building materials, arrangement, decoration and many other features. Here we offer the first rigorous, global evaluation of the factors that influence the construction of traditional (vernacular) houses. We apply macroecological approaches to analyse data describing house features from 1900 to 1950 across 1000 societies. Geographic, social and linguistic descriptors for each society were used to test the extent to which key architectural features may be explained by the biophysical environment, social traits, house features of neighbouring societies or cultural history. We find strong evidence that some aspects of the climate shape house architecture, including floor height, wall material and roof shape. Other features, particularly ground plan, appear to also be influenced by social attributes of societies, such as whether a society is nomadic, polygynous or politically complex. Additional variation in all house features was predicted both by the practices of neighouring societies and by a society's language family. Collectively, the findings from our analyses suggest those conditions under which traditional houses offer solutions to architects seeking to reimagine houses in light of warmer, wetter or more variable climates.

RevDate: 2024-04-30

Bao Y, Tian H, X Wang (2024)

Effects of climate change and ozone on vegetation phenology on the Tibetan Plateau.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(24)02927-9 [Epub ahead of print].

The vegetation phenology, encompassing the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season on the Tibetan Plateau, has been significantly impacted by global climate change. Furthermore, ozone (O3) has gradually become the main pollutant in this region, substantially influencing carbon cycle and ecosystems on Earth. While ongoing studies have focused mainly on the implications of climate parameters, including temperature, precipitation, and radiation, the effects of O3 on the SOS and EOS remain unclear. Here, we compared the responses and sensitivities of the SOS and EOS to both climatic factors and O3 in this region. With the use of partial correlation analysis, we found that increased precipitation was the most important factor influencing the SOS and caused earlier occurrence (4.8 % vs. 21.9 %) for most plant functional types. In comparison, temperature only dominated in shrublands. In particular, we found that the EOS responded comparably to climatic factors with similar proportions between advancing and delaying patterns. However, higher O3 levels consistently advanced the EOS for almost all plant functional types and was the main factor controlling EOS variations based on the sensitivity analysis. Our results emphasized that O3 pollution should be considered for obtaining better phenological forecasts and determining the impacts of the environment and atmospheric composition on carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems.

RevDate: 2024-04-29

Abousoliman AD, Ibrahim AM, Abualruz H, et al (2024)

Exploring the relationship between nursing students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and their psychological distress: a cross-national investigation.

BMC nursing, 23(1):294.

BACKGROUND: Climate change poses a worldwide challenge with anticipated exacerbation in the future, resulting in irreversible consequences. Nursing students may be vulnerable to experiencing psychological effects associated with climate change.

AIM: The current study aimed to investigate the relationship between nursing students' knowledge and attitudes toward climate change and their psychological distress.

METHOD: This descriptive cross-sectional study recruited 377 nursing students from three universities located in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt in the Middle East. Data collection was conducted using scales for assessing nursing students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and their psychological distress. Correlations were assessed and multiple regression analysis was conducted to explore the predictors of students' psychological distress.

RESULTS: The current study showed that knowledge regarding climate change significantly and positively correlated to the attitude toward climate change (r = 0.213), then again, the score of psychological distress significantly and negatively correlated to the score of students' knowledge and attitude regarding climate change (r = - 0.182 and - 0.110 respectively). Regression analyses showed that academic achievement had the strongest positive impact on students' psychological distress, while knowledge regarding climate change and attitude toward climate change had negative impacts (β = 0.381, β=-0.205, and β=-0.045 respectively). Moreover, knowledge and attitude regarding climate change were found to be significant predictors of students' psychological distress, collectively accounting for 18.2% of the observed variance.

The findings highlight the importance of incorporating climate change into nursing education programs. By enhancing nursing students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change, there is potential to reduce their psychological distress. This study underscores the need for curriculum reforms that integrate climate change topics, aiming to foster a well-informed and resilient future nursing workforce.

RevDate: 2024-05-01
CmpDate: 2024-04-30

Shen T, Rasdi IB, Ezani NEB, et al (2024)

The mediating role of pro-environmental attitude and intention on the translation from climate change health risk perception to pro-environmental behavior.

Scientific reports, 14(1):9831.

Climate change is a serious environmental issue appearing in China. As a public service institution operating around the clock, the negative impact of hospitals on the environment is evident, promoting their workers' pro-environmental behavior (PEB) through increasing climate change health risk perception (CHRP) is an effective method to protect the environment and achieve sustainable development. This study investigates how CHRP shapes pro-environmental attitude (PEA), pro-environmental intention (PEI), and pro-environmental behavior (PEB) among hospital workers. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the chain of causation from CHRP to PEB among hospital workers. The result shows that CHRP positively affects PEA and PEI, and PEI positively affects their PEB. In addition, although CHRP has no significant direct effect on PEB, it can play a crucial indirect effect through the mediating role of PEI. Moreover, the result of multiple regression shows that there are significant differences regarding PEA, PEI, and PEB.

RevDate: 2024-04-29

Marshall AM, Abatzoglou JT, Rahimi S, et al (2024)

California's 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 121(20):e2320600121.

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term "snow deluge" and use anomalously high snowpack in California's Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California's 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges-which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event-are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

RevDate: 2024-04-29
CmpDate: 2024-04-29

Solomon CG, PJ Landrigan (2024)

Fossil Fuels, Climate Change, and Cardiovascular Disease: A Call to Action.

Circulation, 149(18):1400-1401.

RevDate: 2024-04-29

Wang Y, Li C, Zhao S, et al (2024)

Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries.

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 18(4):e0012158 pii:PNTD-D-23-01345 [Epub ahead of print].

Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.91), 2.60 (1.89-3.57), and 1.41 (1.22-1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98-1.51), 2.09 (1.26-3.47), and 1.37 (0.83-2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia.

RevDate: 2024-04-29

Stanton DE (2024)

Epiphytes as leading indicators of climate and other changes. A commentary on 'Interactions of moisture and light drive lichen growth and the response to climate change scenarios - experimental evidence for Lobaria pulmonaria'.

RevDate: 2024-04-29

Baraj B, Mishra M, Sudarsan D, et al (2024)

Climate change and resilience, adaptation, and sustainability of agriculture in India: A bibliometric review.

Heliyon, 10(8):e29586.

Climate change (CC) is a global issue, with effects felt across nations, including India. The influences of CC, such as rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and extreme weather events, have a direct impact on agricultural productivity, thereby affecting food security, income, livelihoods, and overall population health. This study aims to identify trends, patterns, and common themes in research on Climate Change and Resilience, Adaptation, and Sustainability of Agriculture in India (CCRASAI). It also seeks to illuminate potential future research directions to guide subsequent research and policy initiatives. The adverse impacts of CC could push farmers into poverty and undernourishment, underscoring the imperative to focus on the resilience, adaptation, and sustainability of agriculture in India. A bibliometric review was conducted using Biblioshiny and VoSviewer software to analyze 572 articles focused on CCRASAI from the Scopus and Web of Science databases, published between 1994 and 2022. There was an evident upward trend in CCRASAI publications during this period, with steady growth appearing after 2007. Among the States and Union Territories, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have the highest number of published research articles. Research on CCRASAI is most concentrated in the southern plateau, the trans-Gangetic and middle Gangetic plains, and the Himalayan regions. The frequently used terms-'climate change impacts,' 'adaptation strategies,' and 'sustainable agriculture'-in CCRASAI research emphasize the focus on analyzing the effects of CC, creating adaptation strategies, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices.

RevDate: 2024-04-29

Esfandeh S, Danehkar A, Salmanmahiny A, et al (2024)

Climate change projection using statistical downscaling model over southern coastal Iran.

Heliyon, 10(8):e29416.

Iran is highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly evident in shifting precipitation and temperature patterns, especially in its southern coastal region. With these changing climate conditions, there is an urgent need for practical and adaptive management of water resources and energy supply to address the challenges posed by future climate change. Over the next two to three decades, the effects of climate change, such as precipitation and temperature, are expected to worsen, posing greater risks to water resources, agriculture, and infrastructure stability. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the alterations in mean daily temperature (Tmean) and total daily rainfall (rrr24) utilizing climate change scenarios from both phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) in the southern coastal regions of Iran (Hormozgan province), specifically north of the Strait of Hormuz. The predictions were generated using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) predictors, incorporating climate change scenarios from CMIP5 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 and CMIP6 with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1, 2, and 5. The analysis was conducted for three distinct time periods: the early 21st century (2021-2045), middle 21st century (2046-2071), and late 21st century (2071-2095). The results indicated that the CMIP5 model outperformed the CMIP6 model in simulating and predicting Tmean and rrr24. In addition, a significant increase in Tmean was observed across all the scenarios and time periods, with the most pronounced trend occurring in the middle and late 21st century future periods. This increase was already evident during the base period of 2021-2045 across all scenarios. Moreover, the fluctuations in precipitation throughout the region and across all scenarios were significant in the three examined future periods. The results indicated that among CMIP5 scenarios, RCP8.5 had highest changes of Tmean (+1.22 °C) in Bandar Lengeh station in 2071-2095 period. The lowest change magnitude of Tmean among CMIP5 scenarios was found in RCP4.5 (-1.94 °C) in Ch station in 2046-2070 period. The results indicated that among CMIP5 scenarios, RCP8.5 had highest changes of rrr24 (+150.2 mm) in Chabahar station in 2071-2095 period. The lowest change magnitude of rrr24 among CMIP5 scenarios was found in RCP8.5 (-25.8 mm) in Bandar Abbas station in 2046-2070 period. In conclusion, the study reveals that the coastal area of Hormozgan province will experience rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns in the future. These changes may lead to challenges such as increased water and energy consumption, heightened risks of droughts or floods, and potential damage to agriculture and infrastructure. These findings offer valuable insights for implementing local mitigation policies and strategies and adapting to emerging climate changes in Hormozgan's coastal areas. For example, utilizing water harvesting technologies, implementing watershed management practices, and adopting new irrigation systems can address challenges like water consumption, agricultural impacts, and infrastructure vulnerability. Future research should accurately assess the effect of these changes in precipitation and temperature on water resources, forest ecosystems, agriculture, and other infrastructures in the study area to implement effective management measures.

RevDate: 2024-04-29

Noedoost F, Behroozian M, Karami S, et al (2024)

Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia.

Ecology and evolution, 14(4):e11241.

Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2041-2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional-to-national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.

RevDate: 2024-04-29

Efimov VМ, Rechkin DV, NP Goncharov (2024)

Multivariate analysis of long-term climate data in connection with yield, earliness and the problem of global warming.

Vavilovskii zhurnal genetiki i selektsii, 28(2):155-165.

Climate change is the key challenge to agriculture in the XXI century. Future agricultural techniques in the Russian Federation should involve the optimization of land utilization. This optimization should apply algorithms for smart farming and take into consideration possible climate variations. Due to timely risk assessment, this approach would increase profitability and production sustainability of agricultural products without extra expenditures. Also, we should ground farming optimization not on available empirical data encompassing limited time intervals (month, year) or human personal evaluations but on the integral analysis of long-term information bodies using artificial intelligence. This article presents the results of a multivariate analysis of meteorological extremes which caused crop failures in Eastern and Western Europe in last 2600 years according to chronicle data and paleoreconstructions as well as reconstructions of heliophysical data for the last 9000 years. This information leads us to the conclusion that the current global warming will last for some time. However, subsequent climate changes may go in any direction. And cooling is more likely than warming; thus, we should be prepared to any scenario. Plant breeding can play a key role in solving food security problems connected with climate changes. Possible measures to adapt plant industry to the ongoing and expected climate changes are discussed. It is concluded that future breeding should be based on the use of highly adapted crops that have already been produced in pre-breeding programs, ready to meet future challenges caused by potential climate change.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg.


ESP now offers a large collection of user-selected side-by-side timelines (e.g., all science vs. all other categories, or arts and culture vs. world history), designed to provide a comparative context for appreciating world events.


Biographical information about many key scientists (e.g., Walter Sutton).

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )