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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 19 Aug 2018 at 01:38 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2018-08-18

Caminade C, McIntyre KM, AE Jones (2018)

Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.

RevDate: 2018-08-17

Bongaarts J, BC O'Neill (2018)

Global warming policy: Is population left out in the cold?.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 361(6403):650-652.

RevDate: 2018-08-17

Parise I (2018)

A brief review of global climate change and the public health consequences.

Australian journal of general practice, 47(7):451-456.

BACKGROUND: Global climate change (GCC) will have an enormous impact on public health in the 21st century. Evidence clearly implicates the use of fossil fuels and the resultant anthropogenic greenhouse gases as the major source of GCC.

OBJECTIVE: This paper seeks to examine briefly the association between fossil fuels and GCC, the consequent environmental changes and the predicted public health effects.

DISCUSSION: Complex and interrelated climate changes are forecast to present immense challenges, including increased morbidity and mortality, arising from heatwaves, extreme weather events, infectious and non-communicable diseases. The subsequent health effects, modulated by socioeconomic determinants, will be distributed inequitably primarily to vulnerable populations, largely in the tropics. A response to GCC is urgently required, involving strategies to mitigate and adapt to GCC. Not only will general practitioners be managing health conditions caused by GCC, but they are also well placed in the community to advocate for GCC mitigation.

RevDate: 2018-08-16

Peters K (2018)

Disasters, climate change, and securitisation: the United Nations Security Council and the United Kingdom's security policy.

Disasters [Epub ahead of print].

Since climate change was included on the United Nations Security Council's agenda in 2007, there has been much debate about whether or not it has been securitised. This paper starts from the premise that climate change has undergone a partial securitisation-that is, a gradual process wherein political choices are made to frame certain issues in particular ways. Climate change has been reframed from a purely developmental and environmental concern to one that impels foreign policy and security domains. This paper makes a novel contribution to disasters, climate change, and security studies by arguing that explicit and implicit links to natural hazard-related disasters have been employed as part of a gradual process of securitisation, or, more specifically, the partial securitisation of climate change. This is demonstrated by drawing on two cases: United Nations Security Council debates between 2007 and 2017; and the United Kingdom's security policy between 1997 and 2017.

RevDate: 2018-08-16

Diovisalvi N, Odriozola M, García de Souza J, et al (2018)

Species-specific phenological trends in shallow Pampean lakes (Argentina) zooplankton driven by contemporary climate change in the Southern Hemisphere.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The relationship between the timing of recurrent biological events and seasonal climatic patterns (i.e., phenology) is a crucial ecological process. Changes in phenology are increasingly linked to global climate change. However, current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is subjected to substantial regional and seasonal biases. Most available evidence on climate driven phenological changes comes from Northern Hemisphere (NH) ecosystems, and typically involve increases in spring and summer temperatures, which translate into earlier onsets of spring population developments. In the Argentine Pampa region, warming has occurred at a much slower pace than in the NH, and trends are mostly restricted to increases in the minimum temperatures. We used zooplankton abundance data from lake Chascomús (recorded every two weeks from 2005 to 2015) to evaluate potential changes in phenology. We adopted a sequential screening approach to identify taxa displaying phenological trends, and evaluated if such trends could be associated to observed long-term changes in water temperature. Two zooplankton species displayed significant later shifts in phenology metrics (end date of Brachionus havanaensis seasonal distribution: 31-day/decade, onset and end dates of Keratella americana seasonal distribution: 59-day/decade and 82-day/decade, respectively). The timing of the observed shift in B. havanaensis phenology was coincident with a warming trend in the May lake water temperature (4.7°C per decade). Analysis of abundance vs. temperature patterns from six additional shallow Pampean lakes, and evaluation of previous experimental results, provided further evidence that the lake water warming trend in May was responsible for the delayed decline of B. havanaensis populations in autumn. This study is the first report of freshwater zooplankton phenology changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-08-16

Frölicher TL, Fischer EM, N Gruber (2018)

Marine heatwaves under global warming.

Nature, 560(7718):360-364.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months1 and can extend up to thousands of kilometres2. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems3-11 and fisheries12-14 to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences15 and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century16, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.

RevDate: 2018-08-16

Ricciardi W (2018)

1st scientific symposium on Health and Climate Change, Italian National Institute of Health, 3-5th December 2018, Rome, Italy.

RevDate: 2018-08-15

Sracek O, Kříbek B, Mihaljevič M, et al (2018)

The impact of wetland on neutral mine drainage from mining wastes at Luanshya in the Zambian Copperbelt in the framework of climate change.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-018-2929-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The impact of a natural wetland ("dambo" in Zambia) on neutral mine drainage at Luanshya in the Zambian Copperbelt has been investigated during an intermediate discharge period (July) using a multi-method characterization of solid phase samples, sequential extraction analysis, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy combined with water analyses, isotopic analyses, and geochemical modeling. In the wetland, the principal identified solid phases in sediments were carbonates, gypsum, and ferric oxyhydroxides. A significant portion of the ochres was present as insoluble hematite. Mine drainage pH values decrease, and log [Formula: see text] values increase after inflow of water into the wetland; dissolved and suspended concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cu, and Co also decrease. Based on speciation calculations, there is no precipitation of secondary Cu and Co minerals in the period of sampling, but it can occur later in dry period when the flow rate is reduced. Concentrations of sulfate decrease, and values of δ34S(SO4) in the wetland increase in parallel, suggesting sulfate reduction is occurring. In more advanced dry period, the discharge in mine drainage stream is probably much lower and water can reach supersaturation with respect to minerals such as gypsum, which has been found in sediments. Wetlands have a positive impact on mine drainage water quality due to the removal of metals by adsorption, co-precipitation, and filtration of colloids. However, there can also be a rebound of contamination by seepage inflow downstream from the wetland. Ongoing climate change with extreme hydrologic events may enhance differences between dry and rainy seasons with resulting faster mobilization of contaminants.

RevDate: 2018-08-15

de Souza MS, Muelbert JH, Costa LDF, et al (2018)

Environmental Variability and Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Subtropical Coastal Lagoon: Searching for a Sign of Climate Change Effects.

Frontiers in microbiology, 9:1727.

Cyanobacterial blooms in marine and freshwater environments may be favored by shifts in physical water column parameters due to warming under climate change. The Patos Lagoon (PL), a subtropical coastal environment in southern Brazil, is known for recurrent blooms of Microcystis aeruginosa complex (MAC). Here, we analyze the variability of these blooms and their relation to changes in wind direction and speed, rainfall and freshwater run-off from 2000 to 2017. Also, we discuss both longer time-series of air temperature and rainfall and a review of local studies with microcystins produced by these noxious species. Since the 1980s, MAC blooms were associated to negative anomalies in annual precipitation that occur during La Niña periods and, in the last years (2001-2014), accompanied by a trend in low river discharge. MAC blooms were conspicuous from December to March, i.e., austral summer, with massive patches seen in satellite images as for 2017. We suggest that low rainfall and run-off years under NE wind-driven hydrodynamics might accumulate MAC biomass in the west margin of the PL system. In contrast, a positive, long-term trend in precipitation (from 1950 to 2016; slope = 3.9868 mm/yr, p < 0.05) should imply in high river discharge and, consequently, advection of this biomass to the adjacent coastal region. Due to the proximity to urban areas, the blooms can represent recreational and economic hazards to the region.

RevDate: 2018-08-15

Sévellec F, SS Drijfhout (2018)

A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend.

Nature communications, 9(1):3024 pii:10.1038/s41467-018-05442-8.

In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales. Here we develop a novel method to predict global-mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on transfer operators, which allows, by-design, probabilistic forecasts. The prediction accuracy is equivalent to operational forecasts and its reliability is high. The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018-2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures. The important numerical efficiency of the method (a few hundredths of a second on a laptop) opens the possibility for real-time probabilistic predictions carried out on personal mobile devices.

RevDate: 2018-08-15

Ornes S (2018)

Core Concept: How does climate change influence extreme weather? Impact attribution research seeks answers.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115(33):8232-8235.

RevDate: 2018-08-15

Shorthouse M, L Stone (2018)

Inequity amplified: climate change, the Australian farmer, and mental health.

The Medical journal of Australia, 209(4):156-157.

RevDate: 2018-08-14

Wang Z, Cui C, S Peng (2018)

Critical sectors and paths for climate change mitigation within supply chain networks.

Journal of environmental management, 226:30-36 pii:S0301-4797(18)30889-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Certain sectors and paths along supply chains play a critical role in climate change mitigation. We develope a consumption-based framework, which combines input-output analysis, a power-of-pull approach and structural path analysis, and applied it to supply chain networks derived from 2010 and 2012 Jing-Jin-Ji interregional input-output tables. The aim of this study is to identify (1) the key economic sectors for controlling carbon emissions and their changes, (2) the critical directions from a carbon-pulling sector to the emissions of key economic sectors, and (3) the paths with the largest carbon emissions flux in these critical directions. Our results show that the key sectors are from Hebei and Tianjin, more concentrated in Hebei. Most sectors have the largest pulling power over their own carbon emissions, and within-region connections dominated in the emission network, with a stronger tie between Beijing and the other two regions. Critical paths along carbon-pulling directions are located in tiers 0 and 1. Our framework can provide new insight into the creation of carbon emissions control policies.

RevDate: 2018-08-14

Bi W, Weng B, Yuan Z, et al (2018)

Evolution Characteristics of Surface Water Quality Due to Climate Change and LUCC under Scenario Simulations: A Case Study in the Luanhe River Basin.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(8): pii:ijerph15081724.

It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration-climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality.

RevDate: 2018-08-13

Guo Y, Li X, Zhao Z, et al (2018)

Predicting the impacts of climate change, soils and vegetation types on the geographic distribution of Polyporus umbellatus in China.

The Science of the total environment, 648:1-11 pii:S0048-9697(18)32960-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Polyporus umbellatus is a fungus that has been used medically as a diuretic for thousands of years in China. To evaluate the impacts of climatic change on the distribution of P. umbellatus, we selected the annual mean air temperature, isothermality, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality and used observations from the 2000s and simulated values from two future periods (2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080) to build an ensemble model (EM); then, we developed a comprehensive habitat suitability model by integrating soil and vegetation conditions into the EM to assess the distribution of suitable P. umbellatus habitats across China in the 2000s and the two future periods. Our results show that annual precipitation and annual mean air temperature together largely determine the distribution of P. umbellatus and those suitable P. umbellatus habitats generally occur in areas with an optimal annual precipitation of approximately 1000 mm and an optimal annual mean air temperature of approximately 13 °C. In other words, P. umbellatus requires a humid and cool environment for growth. In addition, brown soils with a granular structure and low acidity are more suitable for P. umbellatus. Furthermore, we have observed that the distribution of P. umbellatus is usually associated with the presence of coniferous, mixed coniferous, and broad-leaved forests, suggesting that these vegetation types are suitable habitats for P. umbellatus. In the future, annual precipitation and annual mean air temperature will continue to increase, consequently increasing the availability of habitats suitable for P. umbellatus in northeastern and southwestern China but likely leading to a degradation of suitable P. umbellatus habitats in central China.

RevDate: 2018-08-13

Riedlinger M (2018)

Book review: Susanna Priest, Communicating Climate Change: The Path Forward Priest Susanna Communicating Climate Change: The Path Forward . London: Palgrave Macmillan , 2016 . 177 pp. € 96.00 ISBN: 9781137585790.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2018-08-10

Warren M, Frolking S, Dai Z, et al (2017)

Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation.

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 22(7):1041-1061.

The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics of several management scenarios within the context of simulated twenty-first century climate change. Simulations of all scenarios with land use, including restoration, indicated net C losses over the twenty-first century ranging from 10 to 100 % of pre-disturbance values. Fire can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. Simulated 100 years of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation with an initial prescribed burn resulted in 2400-3000 Mg CO2 ha-1 total emissions. Simulated restoration following one 25-year oil palm rotation reduced total emissions to 440-1200 Mg CO2 ha-1, depending on climate. These results suggest that even under a very optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one third of the peat C lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered in the following 75 years if the site is restored. Emissions from a simulated land degradation scenario were most sensitive to climate, with total emissions ranging from 230 to 10,600 Mg CO2 ha-1 over 100 years for the wettest and driest dry season scenarios, respectively. The large difference was driven by increased fire probability. Therefore, peat fire suppression is an effective management tool to maintain tropical peatland C stocks in the near term and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts. In total, we estimate emissions from current cleared peatlands and peatlands converted to oil palm in Southeast Asia to be 8.7 Gt CO2 over 100 years with a moderate twenty-first century climate. These emissions could be minimized by effective fire suppression and hydrological restoration.

RevDate: 2018-08-10

Eitzinger A, Läderach P, Rodriguez B, et al (2017)

Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model.

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 22(5):743-760.

Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers' food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10-38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10-41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.

RevDate: 2018-08-10

Møller AP, Erritzøe J, S van Dongen (2018)

Body size, developmental instability and climate change.

Evolution; international journal of organic evolution [Epub ahead of print].

Development is often temperature-dependent. We hypothesized smaller size and larger asymmetry with increasing temperatures. However, we also predicted associations with asymmetry to differ among traits that differ in their degree of functional importance (especially the functional wings in migratory birds were predicted to be more canalized), timing of development (skeletal (femur, tarsus and humerus) vs feather (wing and tail traits). We analyzed a large dataset of which we included species with at least 20 specimens resulting in 5533 asymmetry values in 1593 individuals from 66 species. There was a consistent significant decrease in size with temperature across all traits. Fluctuating asymmetry for wings and femur was on average lower, suggesting higher canalization, and it decreased with migration distance, while that was not the case for the other traits. Fluctuating asymmetry increased with increasing temperature for wings, but not for the other characters, where the different responses of different characters to temperature was significant. Since there was no significant three-way interaction between temperature, migration distance and character, the asymmetry-temperature response was similar in migratory and resident species. These findings imply that climate warming reduces size of all traits and decreases developmental instability of wings in birds. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-08-10

Groot L, J Swart (2018)

Climate change control: the Lindahl solution.

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 23(5):757-782.

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate different burden sharing rules with respect to abatement of carbon emissions. We evaluate seven different rules both in terms of their redistributive impact and by the extent to which they realize the aim of optimal abatement. We show that the Lindahl solution, where the burden sharing rule of carbon abatement is determined by each region's willingness to pay, is to be preferred above the non-cooperative Nash outcome. Poor regions however would prefer the social planner outcome with a global permit market, because then the burden sharing rule has a secondary role of income redistribution by means of transfers from rich to poor, on top of its primary role of assigning abatement burdens. Based on these findings, we argue that in order to control global greenhouse gas emissions, the level of individual country emission abatement effort should be a function of their willingness to pay to curb climate change, rather than their historical emissions or ability to abate.

RevDate: 2018-08-10

Fellmann T, Witzke P, Weiss F, et al (2018)

Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks.

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 23(3):451-468.

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.

RevDate: 2018-08-10

Xu Z, Smyth CE, Lemprière TC, et al (2018)

Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia, Canada.

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 23(2):257-290.

Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO2e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017-2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC's greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO2e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.

RevDate: 2018-08-10

Klostermann J, van de Sandt K, Harley M, et al (2018)

Towards a framework to assess, compare and develop monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation in Europe.

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 23(2):187-209.

Adaptation is increasingly recognised as essential when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change on societies, economies and the environment. However, there is insufficient information about the effectiveness of adaption policies, measures and actions. For this reason, the establishment of monitoring programmes is considered to be necessary. Such programmes can contribute to knowledge, learning and data to support adaptation governance. In the European Union (EU), member states are encouraged to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). The NASs developed so far vary widely because of differing views, approaches and policies. A number of member states have progressed to monitoring and evaluating the implementation of their NAS. It is possible to identify key elements in these monitoring programmes that can inform the wider policy learning process. In this paper, four generic building blocks for creating a monitoring and evaluation programme are proposed: (1) definition of the system of interest, (2) selection of a set of indicators, (3) identification of the organisations responsible for monitoring and (4) definition of monitoring and evaluation procedures. The monitoring programmes for NAS in three member states-Finland, the UK and Germany-were analysed to show how these elements have been used in practice, taking into account their specific contexts. It is asserted that the provision of a common framework incorporating these elements will help other member states and organisations within them in setting up and improving their adaptation monitoring programmes.

RevDate: 2018-08-10

Junium CK, Dickson AJ, BT Uveges (2018)

Perturbation to the nitrogen cycle during rapid Early Eocene global warming.

Nature communications, 9(1):3186 pii:10.1038/s41467-018-05486-w.

The degree to which ocean deoxygenation will alter the function of marine communities remains unclear but may be best constrained by detailed study of intervals of rapid warming in the geologic past. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an interval of rapid warming that was the result of increasing contents of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that had wide ranging effects on ecosystems globally. Here, we present stable nitrogen isotope data from the Eastern Peri-Tethys Ocean that record a significant transition in the nitrogen cycle. At the initiation of the PETM, the nitrogen isotopic composition of sediments decreased by ~6‰ to as low as -3.4‰, signaling reorganization of the marine nitrogen cycle. Warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation caused a transition to nitrogen cycle to conditions that were most similar to those experienced during Oceanic Anoxic Events of the Mesozoic.

RevDate: 2018-08-10

Chalghaf B, Chemkhi J, Mayala B, et al (2018)

Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of Leishmania vectors in the Mediterranean basin: impact of climate change.

Parasites & vectors, 11(1):461 pii:10.1186/s13071-018-3019-x.

BACKGROUND: Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of sand flies during the last decades has shifted northward from latitudes below 45°N in southern Europe to latitudes just above 50○N. Recent studies show that some phlebotomine sand flies were recorded in several parts of Germany and Belgium. In central Europe, some autochthone leishmaniasis cases are being recorded in regions traditionally regarded as leishmaniasis-free. An important challenge is to predict the geographical distribution of leishmaniasis vectors under new climatic conditions. In this study, we attempted to predict the current distribution of six leishmaniasis vectors in the Mediterranean basin and forecast species' geographical shift under future climate scenarios using an ensemble ecological niche modeling approach. Species records were obtained from scientific surveys published in the research literature between 2006 and 2016. A series of climate metrics describing temperature and precipitation in the study area under two climatic scenarios were obtained from WorldClim database. A consensus model was derived from six varieties of modeling approaches (regression, machine learning and classification techniques) in order to ensure valid prediction of distribution of vectors under different climate scenarios.

RESULTS: Model performance was generally high for the included species with a specificity (true negative rate) ranging from 81.03 to 96.52% (mean = 86.94%) and a sensitivity (true positive rate) ranging from 87.93 to 100% (mean = 96.98%). Our work evidenced the hypothesis of the widespread of Leishmania vectors under climate change scenarios. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are actually not suitable for vectors' survival. Phlebotomine sand flies are prospected to invade extra-Mediterranean regions, especially western and central Europe.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed the importance of environmental and climate factors on the distribution of leishmaniasis vectors and demonstrated the performance of ecological niche modeling in the prediction of the geographical spread of vector-borne diseases. Ecological niche modeling should be considered in the future as a valuable tool in addition to experimental laboratory studies for a better understanding of the biology of vector species.

RevDate: 2018-08-08

Anonymous (2018)

Hunger's toll looks set to grow with tough action on climate change.

Nature, 560(7717):144.

RevDate: 2018-08-07

Godoy-Vitorino F, C Toledo-Hernandez (2018)

Reef-Building Corals as a Tool for Climate Change Research in the Genomics Era.

Results and problems in cell differentiation, 65:529-546.

Coral reef ecosystems are among the most biodiverse habitats in the marine realm. They not only contribute with a plethora of ecosystem services, but they also are beneficial to humankind via nurturing marine fisheries and sustaining recreational activities. We will discuss the biology of coral reefs and their ecophysiology including the complex bacterial microbiota associated with them.

RevDate: 2018-08-07

Olabisi LS, Azhar GS, Abbott M, et al (2018)

Participatory Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Public Health in Long Beach, California: Discussion from a Workshop Hosted by the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition.

Rand health quarterly, 8(1):4.

Participatory modeling aims to incorporate stakeholders into the process of developing models for the purpose of eliciting information, appropriately reflecting stakeholder interests and concerns, and improving stakeholder understanding, and acceptance of the analysis. Participatory modeling, using causal loop diagramming (CLD), was used to explore the impact of climate change on public health in Long Beach, California. CLD, commonly used in participatory modeling, provided useful information to serve as the basis for a quantitative system dynamics model to protect the citizens of Long Beach, and potentially other cities or regions affected by climate change. Diverse stakeholders constructed CLDs depicting the impacts of climate change on public health in Long Beach. This exercise aimed to (1) identify public health issues that might be caused or exacerbated by climate change; (2) examine the systemic connections between climate change and other drivers of public health/illness and mortality; and (3) identify feedback loops to gain an understanding of how climate change could impact public health over coming decades. Six groups of five stakeholders were tasked with depicting the impacts of climate change on public health. Each group designated a key health outcome of concern on a citywide scale, including critical drivers of the outcome at higher and lower scales if necessary (for example, state laws, or household-level decisions that affect health outcomes in the aggregate). Social, environmental, political, and economic variables were all considered. After the small group diagramming exercise, groups presented diagram results to other participants, and the discussion around the diagrams was recorded.

RevDate: 2018-08-07

Six DL, Vergobbi C, M Cutter (2018)

Are Survivors Different? Genetic-Based Selection of Trees by Mountain Pine Beetle During a Climate Change-Driven Outbreak in a High-Elevation Pine Forest.

Frontiers in plant science, 9:993.

Increased mortality of forest trees, driven directly or indirectly by climate change, is occurring around the world. In western North America, whitebark pine, a high elevation keystone species, and lodgepole pine, a widespread ecologically and economically important tree, have experienced extensive mortality in recent climate-driven outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle. However, even in stands experiencing high levels of mortality, some mature trees have survived. We hypothesized that the outbreak acted as a natural selection event, removing trees most susceptible to the beetle and least adapted to warmer drier conditions. If this was the case, genetic change would be expected at loci underlying beetle resistance. Given we did not know the basis for resistance, we used inter-simple sequence repeats to compare the genetic profiles of two sets of trees, survivors (mature, living trees) and general population (trees just under the diameter preferred by the beetles and expected to approximate the genetic structure of each tree species at the site without beetle selection). This method detects high levels of polymorphism and has often been able to detect patterns associated with phenotypic traits. For both whitebark and lodgepole pine, survivors and general population trees mostly segregated independently indicating a genetic basis for survivorship. Exceptions were a few general population trees that segregated with survivors in proportions roughly reflecting the proportion of survivors versus beetle-killed trees. Our results indicate that during outbreaks, beetle choice may result in strong selection for trees with greater resistance to attack. Our findings suggest that survivorship is genetically based and, thus, heritable. Therefore, retaining survivors after outbreaks to act as primary seed sources could act to promote adaptation. Further research will be needed to characterize the actual mechanism(s) of resistance.

RevDate: 2018-08-07

Ficklin DL, Abatzoglou JT, Robeson SM, et al (2018)

Natural and managed watersheds show similar responses to recent climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1801026115 [Epub ahead of print].

Changes in climate are driving an intensification of the hydrologic cycle and leading to alterations of natural streamflow regimes. Human disturbances such as dams, land-cover change, and water diversions are thought to obscure climate signals in hydrologic systems. As a result, most studies of changing hydroclimatic conditions are limited to areas with natural streamflow. Here, we compare trends in observed streamflow from natural and human-modified watersheds in the United States and Canada for the 1981-2015 water years to evaluate whether comparable responses to climate change are present in both systems. We find that patterns and magnitudes of trends in median daily streamflow, daily streamflow variability, and daily extremes in human-modified watersheds are similar to those from nearby natural watersheds. Streamflow in both systems show negative trends throughout the southern and western United States and positive trends throughout the northeastern United States, the northern Great Plains, and southern prairies of Canada. The trends in both natural and human-modified watersheds are linked to local trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, demonstrating that water management and land-cover change have not substantially altered the effects of climate change on human-modified watersheds compared with nearby natural watersheds.

RevDate: 2018-08-07

Iknayan KJ, SR Beissinger (2018)

Collapse of a desert bird community over the past century driven by climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1805123115 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has caused deserts, already defined by climatic extremes, to warm and dry more rapidly than other ecoregions in the contiguous United States over the last 50 years. Desert birds persist near the edge of their physiological limits, and climate change could cause lethal dehydration and hyperthermia, leading to decline or extirpation of some species. We evaluated how desert birds have responded to climate and habitat change by resurveying historic sites throughout the Mojave Desert that were originally surveyed for avian diversity during the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. We found strong evidence of an avian community in collapse. Sites lost on average 43% of their species, and occupancy probability declined significantly for 39 of 135 breeding birds. The common raven was the only native species to substantially increase across survey sites. Climate change, particularly decline in precipitation, was the most important driver of site-level persistence, while habitat change had a secondary influence. Habitat preference and diet were the two most important species traits associated with occupancy change. The presence of surface water reduced the loss of site-level richness, creating refugia. The collapse of the avian community over the past century may indicate a larger imbalance in the Mojave and provide an early warning of future ecosystem disintegration, given climate models unanimously predict an increasingly dry and hot future.

RevDate: 2018-08-06

Syphard AD, Sheehan T, Rustigian-Romsos H, et al (2018)

Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?.

PloS one, 13(8):e0201680 pii:PONE-D-18-11316.

Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as predictor variables. We therefore assessed the sensitivity of future fire projections to different combinations of vegetation maps used as explanatory variables in a statistically based fire modeling framework. We compared models without vegetation to models that incorporated static vegetation maps and that included output from a dynamic vegetation model that imposed three scenarios of fire and one scenario of land use change. We mapped projected future probability of all and large fires (> = 40 ha) under two climate scenarios in a heterogeneous study area spanning a large elevational gradient in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Results showed high model sensitivity to the treatment of vegetation as a predictor variable, particularly for models of large fire probability and for models accounting for wildfire effects on vegetation, which lowered future fire probability. Some scenarios resulted in opposite directional trends in the extent and probability of future fire, which could have serious implications for policy and management resource allocation. Model sensitivity resulted from high relative importance of vegetation variables in the baseline models and from large predicted changes in vegetation, particularly when simulating wildfire. Although statistical fire models often omit vegetation due to uncertainty, model sensitivity demonstrated here suggests a need to account for that uncertainty. Coupling statistical and processed based models may be a promising approach to reflect a more plausible range of scenarios.

RevDate: 2018-08-06

Torres N, Goicoechea N, Zamarreño AM, et al (2018)

Mycorrhizal symbiosis affects ABA metabolism during berry ripening in Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo grown under climate change scenarios.

Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology, 274:383-393.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis is a promising tool for improving the quality of grapes under changing environments. Therefore, the aim of this research was to determine if the ability of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to enhance phenolic content (specifically, anthocyanins) in a climate change framework could be mediated by alterations in berry ABA metabolism during ripening. The study was carried out on fruit-bearing cuttings of cv. Tempranillo (CL-1048 and CL-1089) inoculated (+M) or not (-M) with AMF. Two experimental designs were implemented. In the first experiment +M and -M plants were subjected to two temperatures (24/14 °C or 28/18 °C (day/night)) from fruit set to berry maturity. In the second experiment, +M and -M plants were subjected to two temperatures (24/14 °C or 28/18 °C (day/night)) combined with two irrigation regimes (late water deficit (LD) and full irrigation (FI)). At 28/18 °C AMF contributed to an increase in berry anthocyanins and modulated ABA metabolism, leading to higher ABA-GE and 7'OH-ABA and lower phaseic acid (PA) in berries compared to -M plants. Under the most stressful scenario (LD and 28/18 °C), at harvest +M plants exhibited higher berry anthocyanins and 7´OH-ABA and lower PA and dihydrophaseic acid (DPA) levels than -M plants. These findings highlight the involvement of ABA metabolism into the ability of AMF to improve some traits involved in the quality of grapes under global warming scenarios.

RevDate: 2018-08-06

Waldman KB, RB Richardson (2018)

Confronting Tradeoffs Between Agricultural Ecosystem Services and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mali.

Ecological economics : the journal of the International Society for Ecological Economics, 150:184-193.

Changing climatic conditions present new challenges for agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. Sorghum has proven to be an adaptable and resilient crop despite limited funding for crop development. Recent breeding efforts target hybrid and perennial technologies that may facilitate adaptation to climate change. Advantages of perennial crops over their annual counterparts include improved soil quality and water conservation and reduced inputs and labor requirements. In contrast, hybrid crops are often bred for improved grain yield and earlier maturation to avoid variable conditions. We use discrete choice experiments to model adoption of sorghum as a function of attributes that differ between these technologies and traditional varieties in Mali. Overall, the main perceived advantage of perennial crops is agricultural ecosystem services such as soil improvement, while adoption of hybrid crops is hampered by the inability to reuse seed. Women farmers are less concerned about higher labor requirements associated with perennial crops and the ability to reuse hybrids seeds than male farmers. Farmers prefer traditional sorghum to perennial sorghum and are indifferent between traditional and hybrid sorghum. These findings have important policy implications for understanding tradeoffs that are central to farmer decision making when it comes to breeding technologies for climate adaptation.

RevDate: 2018-08-06

León-Sánchez L, Nicolás E, Goberna M, et al (2018)

Poor plant performance under simulated climate change is linked to mycorrhizal responses in a semiarid shrubland.

The Journal of ecology, 106(3):960-976.

Warmer and drier conditions associated with ongoing climate change will increase abiotic stress for plants and mycorrhizal fungi in drylands worldwide, thereby potentially reducing vegetation cover and productivity and increasing the risk of land degradation and desertification. Rhizosphere microbial interactions and feedbacks are critical processes that could either mitigate or aggravate the vulnerability of dryland vegetation to forecasted climate change.We conducted a four-year manipulative study in a semiarid shrubland in the Iberian Peninsula to assess the effects of warming (~2.5ºC; W), rainfall reduction (~30%; RR) and their combination (W+RR) on the performance of native shrubs (Helianthemum squamatum) and their associated mycorrhizal fungi.Warming (W and W+RR) decreased the net photosynthetic rates of H. squamatum shrubs by ~31% despite concurrent increases in stomatal conductance (~33%), leading to sharp decreases (~50%) in water use efficiency. Warming also advanced growth phenology, decreased leaf nitrogen and phosphorus contents per unit area, reduced shoot biomass production by ~36% and decreased survival during a dry year in both W and W+RR plants. Plants under RR showed more moderate decreases (~10-20%) in photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and shoot growth.Warming, RR and W+RR altered ectomycorrhizal fungal (EMF) community structure and drastically reduced the relative abundance of EMF sequences obtained by high-throughput sequencing, a response associated with decreases in the leaf nitrogen, phosphorus and dry matter contents of their host plants. In contrast to EMF, the community structure and relative sequence abundances of other non-mycorrhizal fungal guilds were not significantly affected by the climate manipulation treatments.Synthesis: Our findings highlight the vulnerability of both native plants and their symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi to climate warming and drying in semiarid shrublands, and point to the importance of a deeper understanding of plant-soil feedbacks to predict dryland vegetation responses to forecasted aridification. The interdependent responses of plants and ectomycorrhizal fungi to warming and rainfall reduction may lead to a detrimental feedback loop on vegetation productivity and nutrient pool size, which could amplify the adverse impacts of forecasted climate change on ecosystem functioning in EMF-dominated drylands.

RevDate: 2018-08-06

Liang JL, Zhou WH, Gao SM, et al (2018)

A simple slash-and-char system to mitigate climate change and environmental pollution.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987) pii:S0269-7491(18)30032-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Agriculture-based climate change mitigation may occur through enhancing the carbon sink or through reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from agricultural residue treatment, as open burning of agricultural residues produces millions of tons of GHGs and air pollutants annually worldwide. Charring slashed biomass, termed as slash-and-char, has been considered as a promising alternative to open burning in dealing with agricultural residues such as rice straw. Previous studies, however, focused on relatively sophisticated slash-and-char systems, which could not be practiced easily by smallholder farmers in developing countries. Here we introduce a simple slash-and-char system to mitigate the environmental problems associated with open burning of rice straw. This system could convert 30.7% of the initial carbon in rice straw into biochar, much higher than that retained in the ash generated by open burning (3.95%). It could also cut GHGs, particulate matters and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emissions by 26.9%, 99.0% and 99.4%, respectively. If open burning of rice straw was replaced by the slash-and-char, the annual emissions of GHGs, particulate matters and PAHs in China would decrease by at least 15.4 Tg, 1.51 Tg and 1.27 Gg, correspondingly. This decrease is nearly twice the size of China's estimated forest C sink (8.81 Tg).

RevDate: 2018-08-05

Franco S, Gaetano V, T Gianni (2018)

Urbanization and climate change impacts on surface water quality: Enhancing the resilience by reducing impervious surfaces.

Water research, 144:491-502 pii:S0043-1354(18)30601-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and urbanization are key factors affecting the future of water quality in urbanized catchments. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impact of climate change and urbanization on the water quality of receiving water bodies in the context of a highly urbanized watershed served by a combined sewer system (CSS) in northern Italy. The impact is determined by an integrated modelling study involving two years of field campaigns. The results obtained from the case study show that impervious urban surfaces and rainfall intensity are significant predictors of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and consequently of the water quality of the receiving water body. Scenarios for the year 2100 demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanization is likely to lead to severe worsening of river water quality due to a doubling of the total phosphorus load from CSOs compared to the current load. Reduction in imperviousness was found to be a suitable strategy to adapt to these scenarios by limiting the construction of new impervious areas and decreasing the existing areas by only 15%. This information can be further utilized to develop future designs, which in turn should make these systems more resilient to future changes in climate and urbanization.

RevDate: 2018-08-05

Cai D, Fraedrich K, Guan Y, et al (2018)

Urbanization and climate change: Insights from eco-hydrological diagnostics.

The Science of the total environment, 647:29-36 pii:S0048-9697(18)32815-8 [Epub ahead of print].

To quantify how urbanization induced long-term changes have altered the evolution of urban climate, a novel eco-hydrological diagnostic is introduced and applied globally, to a developing and a developed country (China and US-America). Urban areas are (i) geographically identified by remote sensing based nighttime light, (ii) physically embedded in state spaces spanned by suitable combinations of surface energy and water fluxes comprising the rainfall-runoff chain, and (iii) dynamically characterized by the time evolution of the surface fluxes at geographically fixed locations, analyzed as trajectories in state space, and interpreted by an attribution model separating anthropogenic from climate induced causes. The results describe the long term climatological settings of urban areas in a net radiation versus dryness diagram, while the attribution of change is diagnosed in a state space spanned by energy and water excess: (i) Cities in China are characterized by a bi-modal distribution separated by the boundary between water and energy-limited (northern and southern) regimes while US-American cities are assembling unimodally on this boundary, and globally the urbanized areas are also aligned along this boundary between water and energy-limited regimes. (ii) Attribution of eco-hydrological changes of urbanized regions to climate and human-induced causes shows also basic differences between the developing and developed country: urbanization in Chinese cities is characterized by a 'wet-gets-drier' and 'dry-gets-wetter' paradigm of the climate-induced contributions, due to which cities tend towards a unimodal state as it is observed for US-American urban areas. Finally, implications for large scale city planning are discussed in the outlook.

RevDate: 2018-08-05

Dell'Apa A, Carney K, Davenport TM, et al (2018)

Potential medium-term impacts of climate change on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico: A qualitative framework for management and conservation.

Marine environmental research pii:S0141-1136(18)30218-6 [Epub ahead of print].

A systematic review of scientific papers on the potential impacts of climate-driven environmental changes on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) was conducted to identify the climate-driven pressures and their associated potential impacts on the reproductive success and survival of tuna and billfish, and which of those impacts may have more relevance for their management and conservation in the GOM by 2050. An Impact Screening Analysis (ISA) was developed to evaluate the potential climate impacts discovered in the literature synthesis by assessing each impact against four criteria, and assigning it a ranking based on likelihood of occurrence (High, Medium, or Low). Results show three types of climate-driven pressures within the High ranking: increased water temperature; changes in ocean circulation and eddy kinetic energy; and changes in storm and wind patterns. Our findings provide valuable information to advance our understanding of key climate-driven physico-chemical processes that can impact the biology of tuna and billfish in the GOM, and enhance conservation and management of these species.

RevDate: 2018-08-04

Lauria V, Das I, Hazra S, et al (2018)

Corrigendum to importance of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas Science of the total Environment 640-641 (2018) 1566-1577.

RevDate: 2018-08-04

Gilfillan D (2018)

Regional organisations supporting health sector responses to climate change in Southeast Asia.

Globalization and health, 14(1):80 pii:10.1186/s12992-018-0388-z.

BACKGROUND: The role played by regional organisations in climate change adaptation and health is growing in Southeast Asia, with the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment both supporting health and adaptation initiatives. There is, however, a lack of empirical research on the value that regional organisations add to national health-related adaptation. This qualitative research compares regional project and governance-based models of adaptation and health support in Southeast Asia, providing an analysis of strengths and weaknesses of each, as well as possibilities for improvement.

METHODS: An existing adaptation assessment framework was modified for this research, and used as a guide to gather and analyse data from academic and grey literature, policy documents and interviews in order to qualitatively assess two organisations and their different models of adaptation and health support.

RESULTS: This research found differing strengths in the approaches to climate change and health used by the Asian Development Bank and by the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment. The regional forum has vision, high levels of perceived legitimacy, and access to 'in-house' expertise in public health and climate change. Conversely, the Asian Development Bank has strengths in project management and access to significant financial resources to support work in climate change and health.

CONCLUSION: When regional organisations, such as the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, have membership and mandate overlaps, their work will likely benefit from well designed, institutionalised and incentivised coordination mechanisms. Coordination can reduce redundancies as well as the administrative workload on partner government agencies. In the case-study examined, the Asian Development Bank's project management expertise complements the vision and high levels of perceived legitimacy of the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, thus a coordinated approach could deliver improved adaptation and health outcomes.

RevDate: 2018-08-03

Cottingham A, Huang P, Hipsey MR, et al (2018)

Growth, condition, and maturity schedules of an estuarine fish species change in estuaries following increased hypoxia due to climate change.

Ecology and evolution, 8(14):7111-7130 pii:ECE34236.

Understanding challenges posed by climate change to estuaries and their faunas remains a high priority for managing these systems and their communities. Freshwater discharge into a range of estuary types in south-western Australia between 1990 and 2015 is shown to be related to rainfall. This largely accounts for decreases in discharge in this microtidal region being more pronounced on the west coast than south coast, where rainfall decline was less. Results of an oxygen-balance model imply that, as demonstrated by empirical data for the Swan River Estuary, declines in discharge into a range of estuary types would be accompanied by increases in the extent of hypoxia. In 2013-15, growth and body condition of the teleost Acanthopagrus butcheri varied markedly among three permanently open, one intermittently-open, one seasonally-closed and one normally-closed estuary, with average time taken by females to reach the minimum legal length (MLL) of 250 mm ranging from 3.6 to 17.7 years. It is proposed that, in a given restricted period, these inter-estuary variations in biological characteristics are related more to differences in factors, such as food resources and density, than to temperature and salinity. The biological characteristics of A. butcheri in the four estuaries, for which there are historical data, changed markedly between 1993-96 and 2013-15. Growth of both sexes, and also body condition in all but the normally-closed estuary, declined, with females taking between 1.7 and 2.9 times longer to attain the MLL. Irrespective of period, body condition, and growth are positively related. Age at maturity typically increased between periods, but length at maturity declined only in the estuary in which growth was greatest. The plasticity of the biological characteristics of A. butcheri, allied with confinement to its natal estuary and ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions, makes this sparid and comparable species excellent subjects for assessing estuarine "health."

RevDate: 2018-08-03

Berriozabal-Islas C, Rodrigues JFM, Ramírez-Bautista A, et al (2018)

Effect of climate change in lizards of the genus Xenosaurus (Xenosauridae) based on projected changes in climatic suitability and climatic niche conservatism.

Ecology and evolution, 8(14):6860-6871 pii:ECE34200.

Accelerated climate change represents a major threat to the health of the planet's biodiversity. Particularly, lizards of the genus Xenosaurus might be negatively affected by this phenomenon because several of its species have restricted distributions, low vagility, and preference for low temperatures. No study, however, has examined the climatic niche of the species of this genus and how their distribution might be influenced by different climate change scenarios. In this project, we used a maximum entropy approach to model the climatic niche of 10 species of the genus Xenosaurus under present and future suitable habitat, considering a climatic niche conservatism context. Therefore, we performed a similarity analysis of the climatic niche between each species of the genus Xenosaurus. Our results suggest that a substantial decrease in suitable habitat for all species will occur by 2070. Among the most affected species, X. tzacualtipantecus will not have suitable conditions according to its climatic niche requirements and X. phalaroanthereon will lose 85.75% of its current suitable area. On the other hand, we found low values of conservatism of the climatic niche among species. Given the limited capacity of dispersion and the habitat specificity of these lizards, it seems unlikely that fast changes would occur in the distribution of these species facing climate change. The low conservatism in climatic niche we found in Xenosaurus suggests that these species might have the capacity to adapt to the new environmental conditions originated by climate change.

RevDate: 2018-08-03

Wells CN, D Tonkyn (2018)

Changes in the Geographic Distribution of the Diana Fritillary (Speyeria diana: Nymphalidae) under Forecasted Predictions of Climate Change.

Insects, 9(3): pii:insects9030094.

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern United States. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two phylogenetically distinct high elevation populations. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, the community climate system model (CCSM) and the model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC), under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics area under curve (AUC) test and the true skill statistics (TSS) (mean AUC = 0.91 ± 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 ± 0.0032 SE for representative concentration pathway (RCP) = 4.5; and mean AUC = 0.87 ± 0.0031 SE, TSS = 0.84 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.

RevDate: 2018-08-01

Kang S, EAB Eltahir (2018)

North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation.

Nature communications, 9(1):2894 pii:10.1038/s41467-018-05252-y.

North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.

RevDate: 2018-08-01

Asproudi A, Ferrandino A, Bonello F, et al (2018)

Key norisoprenoid compounds in wines from early-harvested grapes in view of climate change.

Food chemistry, 268:143-152.

In view of climate change, the scheduling of an early harvest may be an agronomic option to limit wine alcohol, provided that a satisfactory content of secondary metabolites can be ensured in grapes. To better understand the link between grape ripening, seasonal trend and wine aroma, the aromatic expression of Barbera and Pinot Noir wines produced with early harvested grapes was assessed. Attention was focused on C13 norisoprenoids during both alcoholic fermentation and after three months of storage. At the end of fermentation, the highest β-damascenone content was detected in wines obtained from less ripe grapes, the content subsequently increased significantly after three months of storage; however, the levels of β-ionone decreased significantly during the same period. The reduction of wine alcohol as a result of harvesting earlier, especially for Barbera, was associated with optimal aromatic levels as well as good technological parameters.

RevDate: 2018-07-31

Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Li S, et al (2018)

Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study.

PLoS medicine, 15(7):e1002629 pii:PMEDICINE-D-18-00382.

BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

RevDate: 2018-07-31

Nissan H, D Conway (2018)

From advocacy to action: Projecting the health impacts of climate change.

PLoS medicine, 15(7):e1002624 pii:PMEDICINE-D-18-02181.

In a Perspective, Hannah Nissan and Declan Conway discuss the implications of uncertainty about projected impacts of climate change on health.

RevDate: 2018-07-31

Patz JA, MC Thomson (2018)

Climate change and health: Moving from theory to practice.

PLoS medicine, 15(7):e1002628 pii:PMEDICINE-D-18-02248.

In an Editorial discussing the Special Issue on Climate Change and Health, guest editors Jonathan Patz and Madeleine Thompson summarize key issues in the field and describe the significance of research studies included in the issue.

RevDate: 2018-07-31

Mann DL (2017)

Are Academic Medical Centers Placing Translational Scientists on the Endangered Species List?: A Call for Climate Change to Preserve the Species.

JACC. Basic to translational science, 2(4):500-502 pii:S2452-302X(17)30147-X.

RevDate: 2018-07-31

Anonymous (2018)

Pinning extreme weather on climate change is now routine and reliable science.

Nature, 560(7716):5.

RevDate: 2018-07-31

Schiermeier Q (2018)

Droughts, heatwaves and floods: How to tell when climate change is to blame.

Nature, 560(7716):20-22.

RevDate: 2018-07-31

Wei J, Chen H, R Long (2018)

Determining Multi-Layer Factors That Drive the Carbon Capability of Urban Residents in Response to Climate Change: An Exploratory Qualitative Study in China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(8): pii:ijerph15081607.

The active promotion of carbon abatement to mitigate global climate change and protect the environment and public health has become the international consensus. The carbon capability is a key index for measuring the potential reduction of the carbon emissions by urban residents, and thus encouraging residents to exhibit normal and autonomous low-carbon behavior has become an important issue. In this study, based on grounded theory, data from in-depth interviews were encoded at three levels to identify the multi-layer factors that drive the carbon capability of urban residents, and we constructed a theoretical model for policy intervention. The results showed that individual factors, organizational factors, social factors, and social demographic variables were the main variables that affected the carbon capability, and utility experience perception was the main intermediary variable that affected the carbon capability. There was an obvious gap between utility experience perception and carbon capability. Low carbon selection cost was an internal situational variable that regulated the relationship between these factors, and the policy situation and technical situation were external situational variables. There were two-way effects on the carbon capability and utility experience perception. Thus, we explored these driving factors and the role of the carbon capability model. The results of this study may facilitate targeted policy thinking and the development of an implementation path for government in order to formulate effective guiding policies to enhance the carbon capability of urban residents.

RevDate: 2018-07-30

Valle D, Albuquerque P, Zhao Q, et al (2018)

Extending the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to presence/absence data: a case study on North American breeding birds and biogeographic shifts expected from climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding how species composition varies across space and time is fundamental to ecology. While multiple methods having been created to characterize this variation through the identification of groups of species that tend to co-occur, most of these methods unfortunately are not able to represent gradual variation in species composition. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model is a mixed-membership method that can represent gradual changes in community structure by delineating overlapping groups of species but its use has been limited because it requires abundance data and requires users to a priori set the number of groups. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-07-28

Li J, Dong W, Oenema O, et al (2018)

Irrigation reduces the negative effect of global warming on winter wheat yield and greenhouse gas intensity.

The Science of the total environment, 646:290-299 pii:S0048-9697(18)32794-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming may exacerbate drought, decrease crop yield and affect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in semi-arid regions. However, the interactive effects of increases in temperature and water availability on winter wheat yield and GHG emissions in semi-arid climates are not well-understood. Here, we report on a two-year field experiment that examined the effects of a mean soil temperature increase of ~2 °C (at 5 cm depth) with and without additional irrigation on wheat yield and GHG emissions. Infrared heaters were placed above the crop canopy at a height of 1.8 m to simulate warming. Fluxes of CH4, CO2 and N2O were measured using closed static chamber technique once per week during the wheat growing seasons. Warming decreased wheat yield by 28% in the relatively dry year of 2015, while supplemental irrigation nullified the warming effect completely. Warming did not alter the wheat yield significantly in the relatively wet year of 2016, but supplemental irrigation with no warming decreased the wheat yield by 25%. Warming increased CO2 emissions by 28% and CH4 uptake by 24% and tended to decrease N2O emissions. Supplemental irrigation increased N2O emissions but had little effect on CO2 emissions and CH4 uptake. Evidently, warming and supplemental irrigation had interactive effects on wheat yield, GHG emissions and GHG emissions intensity. Precision irrigation appears to be a means of simultaneously increasing wheat yield and reducing GHG emissions under warming conditions in semi-arid areas.

RevDate: 2018-07-28

Albrich K, Rammer W, Thom D, et al (2018)

Trade-offs between temporal stability and level of forest ecosystem services provisioning under climate change.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

The ability of forests to continuously provide ecosystem services (ES) is threatened by rapid changes in climate and disturbance regimes. Consequently, these changes present a considerable challenge for forest managers. Management of forests often focuses on maximizing the level of ES provisioning over extended time frames (i.e., rotation periods of more than 100 years). However, temporal stability is also crucial for many ES, e.g., in the context of a steady provisioning of resources to the industry, or the protection of human infrastructure against natural hazards. How temporal stability and the level of ES provisioning are related is of increasing interest, particularly since changing climate and disturbance regimes amplify temporal variability in forest ecosystems. In this simulation study we investigated whether forest management can simultaneously achieve high levels and temporal stability of ES provisioning. Specifically, we quantified (1) trade-offs between ES stability and level of ES provisioning, and (2) the effect of tree species diversity on ES stability. Simulating a wide range of future climate scenarios and management strategies we found a negative relationship between temporal stability and level of ES provisioning for timber production, carbon cycling, and site protection in a landscape in the Austrian Alps. Tree species diversity had a predominantly positive effect on ES stability. We conclude that attempts to maximize the level of ES provisioning may increase its temporal variability, and thus threaten the continuity of ES supply. Consequently, considerations of stability need to be more explicitly included in forest management planning under increasingly variable future conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-07-28

Knapp AK, Carroll CJW, Griffin-Nolan RJ, et al (2018)

A reality check for climate change experiments: do they reflect the real world?.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Experiments are widely used in ecology, particularly for assessing global change impacts on ecosystem function. However, results from experiments often are inconsistent with observations made under natural conditions, suggesting the need for rigorous comparisons of experimental and observational studies. We conducted such a 'reality check' for a grassland ecosystem by compiling results from nine independently conducted climate change experiments. Each experiment manipulated growing season precipitation (GSP) and measured responses in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). We compared results from experiments with long-term (33-yrs) annual precipitation and ANPP records to ask if collectively (n=44 experiment-yrs) experiments yielded estimates of ANPP, rain-use-efficiency (RUE, g m-2 ANPP mm-1 precipitation), and the relationship between GSP-ANPP comparable to observations. We found that mean ANPP and RUE from experiments did not deviate from observations. Experiments and observational data also yielded similar functional relationships between ANPP and GSP, but only within the range of historically observed GSP. Fewer experiments imposed extreme levels of GSP (outside the observed 33-yr record), but when these were included, they altered the GSP-ANPP relationship. This result underscores the need for more experiments imposing extreme precipitation levels to resolve how forecast changes in climate regimes will affect ecosystem function in the future. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-07-28

Zachary DS (2018)

The Inverse Poisson Functional for forecasting response time to environmental events and global climate change.

Scientific reports, 8(1):11342 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-29680-4.

A series of Poisson distributions are fit to sets of global cost-of-impact data representing large-scale accidents and anthropogenic catastrophes. The fits are used to build a function representing data means and are designated the Inverse Poisson Functional. Climate and environmental data have been used to develop a cost-frequency population distribution and to estimate the expected time between events. On a global scale, we show that expected wait- or reaction- times can be estimated using the Poisson density function. The functional is generated, representing the locus of means (peaks) from the individual Poisson distributions from different impact costs. Past (ex-post) forecasts relate to a range of natural and anthropogenic disasters; future (ex-ante) forecast presents global CO2 emissions. This paper shows that a substantial reaction to global climate change (CO2 emissions extremum) will occur in 55 to 120 years (95% CI) with a model prediction of 80 years.

RevDate: 2018-07-26

Mitchard ETA (2018)

The tropical forest carbon cycle and climate change.

Nature, 559(7715):527-534.

Tropical forests make an approximately neutral contribution to the global carbon cycle, with intact and recovering forests taking in as much carbon as is released through deforestation and degradation. In the near future, tropical forests are likely to become a carbon source, owing to continued forest loss and the effect of climate change on the ability of the remaining forests to capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide. This will make it harder to limit global warming to below 2 °C. Encouragingly, recent international agreements commit to halting deforestation and degradation, but a lack of fundamental data for use in monitoring and model design makes policy action difficult.

RevDate: 2018-07-26
CmpDate: 2018-07-26

Pesce M, Critto A, Torresan S, et al (2018)

Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters.

The Science of the total environment, 628-629:919-937.

There is high confidence that the anthropogenic increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is causing modifications in the Earth's climate. Coastal waterbodies such as estuaries, bays and lagoons are among those most affected by the ongoing changes in climate. Being located at the land-sea interface, such waterbodies are subjected to the combined changes in the physical-chemical processes of atmosphere, upstream land and coastal waters. Particularly, climate change is expected to alter phytoplankton communities by changing their environmental drivers (especially climate-related), thus exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication events, such as hypoxia, harmful algal blooms (HAB) and loss of habitat. A better understanding of the links between climate-related drivers and phytoplankton is therefore necessary for projecting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we present the case study of the Zero river basin in Italy, one of the main contributors of freshwater and nutrient to the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, a coastal waterbody belonging to the lagoon of Venice. To project the impacts of climate change on freshwater inputs, nutrient loadings and their effects on the phytoplankton community of the receiving waterbody, we formulated and applied an integrated modelling approach made of: climate simulations derived by coupling a General Circulation Model (GCM) and a Regional Climate Model (RCM) under alternative emission scenarios, the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the ecological model AQUATOX. Climate projections point out an increase of precipitations in the winter period and a decrease in the summer months, while temperature shows a significant increase over the whole year. Water discharge and nutrient loads simulated by SWAT show a tendency to increase (decrease) in the winter (summer) period. AQUATOX projects changes in the concentration of nutrients in the salt-marsh Palude di Cona, and variations in the biomass and species of the phytoplankton community.

RevDate: 2018-07-24

Fagliano JA, AV Diez Roux (2018)

Climate change, urban health, and the promotion of health equity.

PLoS medicine, 15(7):e1002621 pii:PMEDICINE-D-18-02129.

Jerald Fagliano and Ana Diez Roux discuss the challenges of climate change in an urban environment, but also opportunities for healthier lifestyles and green spaces.

RevDate: 2018-07-24

Xu MP, Ren CJ, Zhang W, et al (2018)

[Responses mechanism of C:N:P stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change.].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 29(7):2445-2454.

Microorganisms and soil enzymes are important drivers for biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the role of microorganisms in the regulation of ecosystems and the response mechanisms of microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change are important topic in ecology. From the perspective of climatic factors, this review introduced the roles of microorganisms and soil enzymes in the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles of terrestrial ecosystems based on the theory of ecological stoichiometry. Moreover, we synthesized the responses mechanisms of soil microbial and soil enzyme stoichiometry, i.e., changes of microbial metabolic rate, enzymatic acti-vity, microbial community structure, ecological stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes, and nutrient use efficiency. Finally, we analyzed the current research inadequacies and proposed the scientific problems in this field, i.e., to comprehensively elucidate the response mecha-nism of soil microbes and soil enzymes to climate change; to examine the nutrient coupling mechanism of soil microbes and extracellular enzymes; and to explore the adaptive strategies of C:N:P stoichiometry of soil microbial biomass and soil enzymes to climate change.

RevDate: 2018-07-24

Huang C, He HS, Liang Y, et al (2018)

[Effects of climate change, fire and harvest on carbon storage of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China.].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 29(7):2088-2100.

Climate change will increase the frequency of fire disturbances, which may further exa-cerbate carbon loss from boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China. In this study, we coupled forest ecosystem and forest landscape models to simulate the dynamics of boreal forest carbon storage in the next 100 years. We quantified the effects of climate change, fire and harvest on carbon storage of boreal forests. The results showed that climate change would increase carbon storage of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, even if fire and harvest could partially offset such changes. Aboveground and soil organic carbon storage would increase by 9%-22% and 6%-9% in the next 100 years. In the short-term (0-20 years), the effects of climate change on carbon storage was stronger than fire. The effects of climate change on boreal forest carbon storage were less than fire and harvest in medium (30-50 years) and long-term (60-100 years). The variability of climate change and fire disturbance in the Great Xing'an Mountains caused high uncertainty of the future boreal forest carbon storage. The uncertainties of aboveground and soil organic carbon of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains were 12.4%-16.2% and 6.6%-10.4% in the next 100 years. The effects of seed dispersal, fire and harvest should be taken account for accurate estimation of carbon storage in Chinese boreal forests.

RevDate: 2018-07-24

Bashir MR, Atiq M, M Mohsan (2018)

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) due to global climate change strengthens the plants and inhibits pathogenic infection.

RevDate: 2018-07-24

Kholoud K, Denis S, Lahouari B, et al (2018)

Management of Leishmaniases in the Era of Climate Change in Morocco.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(7): pii:ijerph15071542.

The proliferation of vector-borne diseases are predicted to increase in a changing climate and Leishmaniases, as a vector-borne diseases, are re-emerging diseases in several regions of the world. In Morocco, during the last decade, a sharp increase in cutaneous leishmaniases cases has been reported. Nevertheless, in Morocco, leishmaniases are a major public health problem, and little interest was given to climate change impacts on the distribution and spread of these diseases. As insect-borne diseases, the incidence and distribution of leishmaniases are influenced by environmental changes, but also by several socio-economic and cultural factors. From a biological point of view, environmental variables have effects on the survival of insect vectors and mammalian reservoirs, which, in turn, affects transmission. Here, we highlight the effects of climate change in Morocco and discuss its consequences on the epidemiology of leishmaniases to identify challenges and define targeted recommendations to fight this disease.

RevDate: 2018-07-23

Whitehead P, Jin L, Macadam I, et al (2018)

Corrigendum to "Modelling Impacts of Climate Change and Socio-Economic Change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hooghly and Mahanadi River Systems in India and Bangladesh" [Stoten 636 (2018) 1362-1372].

RevDate: 2018-07-22

Suttles KM, Singh NK, Vose JM, et al (2018)

Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S.

The Science of the total environment, 645:806-816 pii:S0048-9697(18)32363-5 [Epub ahead of print].

This study assessed the combined effects of increased urbanization and climate change on streamflow in the Yadkin-Pee Dee watershed (North Carolina, USA) and focused on the conversion from forest to urban land use, the primary land use transition occurring in the watershed. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate future (2050-2070) streamflow and baseflow for four combined climate and land use scenarios across the Yadkin-Pee Dee River watershed and three subwatersheds. The combined scenarios pair land use change and climate change scenarios together. Compared to the baseline, projected streamflow increased in three out of four combined scenarios and decreased in one combined scenario. Baseflow decreased in all combined scenarios, but decreases were largest in subwatersheds that lost the most forest. The effects of land use change and climate change were additive, amplifying the increases in runoff and decreases in baseflow. Streamflow was influenced more strongly by climate change than land use change. However, for baseflow the reverse was true; land use change tended to drive baseflow more than climate change. Land use change was also a stronger driver than climate in the most urban subwatershed. In the most extreme land use and climate projection the volume of the 1-day, 100 year flood nearly doubled at the watershed outlet. Our results underscore the importance of forests as hydrologic regulators buffering streamflow and baseflow from hydrologic extremes. Additionally, our results suggest that land managers and policy makers need to consider the implications of forest loss on streamflow and baseflow when planning for future urbanization and climate change adaptation options.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Nover DM, Witt JW, Butcher JB, et al (2016)

The effects of downscaling method on the variability of simulated watershed response to climate change in five U.S. basins.

Earth interactions, 20(11):1-27.

Simulations of future climate change impacts on water resources are subject to multiple and cascading uncertainties associated with different modeling and methodological choices. A key facet of this uncertainty is the coarse spatial resolution of GCM output compared to the finer-resolution information needed by water managers. To address this issue, it is now common practice to apply spatial downscaling techniques, using either higher-resolution regional climate models or statistical approaches applied to GCM output to develop finer-resolution information for use in water resources impacts assessments. Downscaling, however, can also introduce its own uncertainties into water resources impacts assessments. This study uses watershed simulations in five U.S. basins to quantify the sources of variability in streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads associated with the underlying GCM compared to the choice of downscaling method (both statistically and dynamically downscaled GCM output). We also assess the specific, incremental effects of downscaling by comparing watershed simulations based on downscaled and non-downscaled GCM model output. Results show that the underlying GCM and the downscaling method each contribute to the variability of simulated watershed responses. The relative contribution of GCM and downscaling method to the variability of simulated responses varies by watershed and season of the year. Results illustrate the potential implications of one key methodological choice in conducting climate change impacts assessments for water - the selection of downscaled climate change information.

RevDate: 2018-07-21

Madsen HM, Andersen MM, Rygaard M, et al (2018)

Definitions of event magnitudes, spatial scales, and goals for climate change adaptation and their importance for innovation and implementation.

Water research, 144:192-203 pii:S0043-1354(18)30569-4 [Epub ahead of print].

We examine how core professional and institutional actors in the innovation system conceptualize climate change adaptation in regards to pluvial flooding-and how this influences innovation. We do this through a qualitative case study in Copenhagen with interconnected research rounds, including 32 semi-structured interviews, to strengthen the interpretation and analysis of qualitative data. We find that the term "climate change adaptation" currently has no clearly agreed definition in Copenhagen; instead, different actors use different conceptualizations of climate change adaptation according to the characteristics of their specific innovation and implementation projects. However, there is convergence among actors towards a new cognitive paradigm, whereby economic goals and multifunctionality are linked with cost-benefit analyses for adapting to extreme rain events on a surface water catchment scale. Differences in definitions can lead to both successful innovation and to conflict, and thus they affect the city's capacity for change. Our empirical work suggests that climate change adaptation can be characterized according to three attributes: event magnitudes (everyday, design, and extreme), spatial scales (small/local, medium/urban, and large/national-international), and (a wide range of) goals, thereby resulting in different technology choices.

RevDate: 2018-07-21

Thomas Y, C Bacher (2018)

Assessing the sensitivity of bivalve populations to global warming using an individual-based modelling approach.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change exposes benthic species populations in coastal ecosystems to a combination of different stressors (e.g. warming, acidification and eutrophication), threatening the sustainability of the ecological functions they provide. Thermal stress appears to be one of the strongest drivers impacting marine ecosystems, acting across a wide range of scales, from individual metabolic performances to geographic distribution of populations. Accounting for and integrating the response of species functional traits to thermal stress is therefore a necessary step in predicting how populations will respond to the warming expected in coming decades. Here, we developed an individual-based population model using a mechanistic formulation of metabolic processes within the framework of the Dynamic Energy Budget theory. Through a large number of simulations, we assessed the sensitivity of population growth potential to thermal stress and food conditions based on a climate projection scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP8.5: no reduction of greenhouse gas emissions). We focused on three bivalve species with contrasting thermal tolerance ranges and distinct distribution ranges along 5000 km of coastline in the NE Atlantic: the Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas), and two mussel species: Mytilus edulis and Mytilus galloprovincialis. Our results suggest substantial and contrasting changes within species depending on local temperature and food concentration. Reproductive phenology appeared to be a core process driving the responses of the populations, and these patterns were closely related to species thermal tolerances. The non-linear relationship we found between individual life-history traits and response at the population level emphasizes the need to consider the interactions resulting from upscaling across different levels of biological organisation. These results underline the importance of a process-based understanding of benthic population response to seawater warming, which will be necessary for forward planning of resource management and strategies for conservation and adaptation to environmental changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Ghezzo M, Pellizzato M, De Pascalis F, et al (2018)

Natural resources and climate change: A study of the potential impact on Manila clam in the Venice lagoon.

The Science of the total environment, 645:419-430 pii:S0048-9697(18)32543-9 [Epub ahead of print].

A crucial aspect in climate change is to understand how an ecosystem will adapt under different environmental conditions and how it will influence the ecological resources and the connected human activities. In this study, a numerical model reproduces the growth dynamics, dispersion and settlement of clam's larvae in the Venice lagoon. On the basis of the last IPCC scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100, the model simulates the changes in larval settlement, showing how the geographical distribution and, consequently, the nursery area changes over time. Our results indicate that climate change will modify, not only the timing of the settlements (from spring-summer to winter autumn) and the spatial distribution of nursery areas (from central to southern lagoon), but also the absolute quantity of settled larvae in the lagoon. This can strongly affect aquaculture in terms of availability of seed and farming practice. Given that these changes are due to the variations in temperature and circulation, similar processes are likely to happen in other transitional environments all over the world affecting the global aquaculture resources. In this regard, the tool we developed could support local policymakers in the knowledge-based planning and sustainable management of clam aquaculture in vulnerable environments.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Randel WJ (2018)

The seasonal fingerprint of climate change.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 361(6399):227-228.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Robertson AD, Zhang Y, Sherrod LA, et al (2018)

Climate Change Impacts on Yields and Soil Carbon in Row Crop Dryland Agriculture.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(4):684-694.

Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two climate change scenarios (moderate warming, representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5; and high warming, RCP 8.5), using long-term experimental data and the DayCent process-based model for three sites with varying climates and soil conditions in the US High Plains. Each site included a no-till cropping intensity gradient introduced in 1985, with treatments ranging from wheat-fallow (L.) to continuous annual cropping and perennial grass. Simulations were extended to 2100 using data from 16 global circulation models to estimate uncertainty. Simulated yields declined for all crops (up to 50% for wheat), with small changes after 2050 under RCP 4.5 and continued losses to 2100 under RCP 8.5. Of the cropped systems, continuous cropping had the highest average productivity and soil C sequestration rates (78.1 kg C ha yr from 2015 to 2045 under RCP 4.5). Any increase in soil C for cropped rotations was realized by 2050, but grassland treatments increased soil C (up to 69%) through 2100, even under RCP 8.5. Our simulations indicate that reduced frequency of summer fallow can both increase annualized yields and store more soil C. As evapotranspiration is likely to increase, reducing fallow periods without live vegetation from dryland agricultural rotations may enhance the resilience of these systems to climate change while also increasing soil C storage and mitigating carbon dioxide emissions.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Nash PR, Gollany HT, UM Sainju (2018)

CQESTR-Simulated Response of Soil Organic Carbon to Management, Yield, and Climate Change in the Northern Great Plains Region.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(4):674-683.

Traditional dryland crop management includes fallow and intensive tillage, which have reduced soil organic carbon (SOC) over the past century, raising concerns regarding soil health and sustainability. The objectives of this study were: (i) to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC dynamics from 2006 to 2011 and to predict relative SOC trends in cropping sequences that included barley (L.), pea (L.), and fallow under conventional tillage or no-till, and N fertilization rates through 2045; and (ii) to identify best dryland cropping systems to increase SOC and reduce CO emissions under projected climate change in eastern Montana. Cropping sequences were conventional-till barley-fallow (CTB-F), no-till barley-fallow (NTB-F), no-till continuous barley (NTCB), and no-till barley-pea (NTB-P), with 0 and 80 kg N ha applied to barley. Under current crop production, climatic conditions, and averaged N rates, SOC at the 0- to 10-cm depth was predicted to increase by 1.74, 1.79, 2.96, and 4.57 Mg C ha by 2045 for CTB-F, NTB-F, NTB-P, and NTCB, respectively. When projected climate change and the current positive US barley yield trend were accounted for in the simulations, SOC accretion was projected to increase by 0.69 to 0.92 Mg C ha and 0.41 to 0.47 Mg C ha, respectively. According to the model simulations, adoption of NT, elimination of fallow years, and N fertilizer management will likely have the greatest impact on SOC stocks in the top soil as of 2045 in the Northern Great Plains.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Wienhold BJ, Jin VL, Schmer MR, et al (2018)

Soil Carbon Response to Projected Climate Change in the US Western Corn Belt.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(4):704-709.

The western US Corn Belt is projected to experience major changes in growing conditions due to climate change over the next 50 to 100 yr. Projected changes include increases in growing season length, number of high temperature stress days and warm nights, and precipitation, with more heavy rainfall events. The impact these changes will have on soil organic carbon (SOC) needs to be estimated and adaptive changes in management developed to sustain soil health and system services. The process-based model CQESTR was used to model changes in SOC stocks (0-30 cm) of continuous corn (L.) and a corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation under disk, chisel, ridge, and no-tillage using projected growing season conditions for the next 50 yr. Input for the model was based on management and harvest records from a long-term tillage study (1986-2015) in eastern Nebraska, and model output was validated using measured changes in SOC from 1999 to 2011 in the study. The validated model was used to estimate changes in SOC over 17 yr under climatic conditions projected for 2065 under two scenarios: (i) crop yields increasing at the observed rate from 1971 to 2016 or (ii) crop yields reduced due to negative effects of increasing temperature. CQESTR estimates of SOC agreed well with measured SOC (= 0.70, < 0.0001). Validated model simulated changes in SOC under projected climate change differed among the three soil depths (0-7.5, 7.5-15, and 15-30 cm). Summed over the 0- to 30-cm depth, there were significant three-way interactions of year × rotation × yield (= 0.014) and year × tillage × yield (< 0.001). As yield increased, SOC increased under no-tillage continuous corn but was unchanged under no-tillage corn-soybean and ridge tillage regardless of cropping system. Under chisel and disk tillage, SOC declined regardless of cropping system. With declining yields SOC decreased regardless of tillage or cropping system. These results highlight the interaction between genetics and management in maintaining yield trends and soil C.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Gollany HT, RW Polumsky (2018)

Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Cropping Intensity, Tillage, and Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Dryland.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(4):625-634.

Managing dryland cropping systems to increase soil organic C (SOC) under changing climate is challenging after decades of winter wheat (L.)-fallow and moldboard plow tillage (W-F/MP). The objective was to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, and SOC data collected in 2004, 2008, and 2012 to predict the best management to increase SOC under changing climate in four cropping systems, which included continuous wheat under no tillage (W-W/NT), wheat and sorghum × sudangrass [ (L.) Moench. × L.] under no tillage, wheat-fallow under sweep tillage, and W-F/MP. Since future yields and climate are uncertain, 20 scenarios for each cropping system were simulated with four climate projections and five crop yield scenarios (current crop yields, and 10 or 30% greater or lesser yields). Measured and simulated SOC were significantly (< 0.0001) correlated (= 0.98) at all soil depths. Predicted SOC changes ranged from -12.03 to 2.56 Mg C ha in the 1-m soil depth for W-F/MP and W-W/NT, respectively, during the 2012 to 2052 predictive period. Only W-W/NT sequestered SOC at a rate of 0.06 Mg C ha yr under current crop yields and climate. Under climate change and yield scenarios, W-W/NT lost SOC except with a 30% wheat yield increase for 40 yr. Predicted SOC increases in W-W/NT were 0.71, 1.16, and 0.88 Mg C ha under the Oregon Climate Assessment Reports for low emissions and high emissions and the Regional Climate Model version 3 with boundary conditions from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model, respectively, with 30% yield increases. Continuous no-till cropping would increase SOC and improve soil health and resiliency to lessen the impact of extreme weather.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Nash PR, Gollany HT, Liebig MA, et al (2018)

Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Crop Rotation, Tillage, and Climate Change in North Dakota.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(4):654-662.

Understanding how agricultural management and climate change affect soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is particularly important for dryland agriculture regions that have been losing SOC over time due to fallow and tillage practices, and it can lead to development of agricultural practice(s) that reduce the impact of climate change on crop production. The objectives of this study were: (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in the top 30 cm of soil during a 20-yr (1993-2012) field study using CQESTR, a process-based C model; (ii) to predict the impact of changes in management, crop production, and climate change from 2013 to 2032; and (iii) to identify the best dryland cropping systems to maintain or increase SOC stocks under projected climate change in central North Dakota. Intensifying crop rotations was predicted to have a greater impact on SOC stocks than tillage (minimum tillage [MT], no-till [NT]) during 2013 to 2032, as SOC was highly correlated to biomass input (= 0.91, = 0.00053). Converting from a MT spring wheat (SW, L.)-fallow rotation to a NT continuous SW rotation increased annualized biomass additions by 2.77 Mg ha (82%) and SOC by 0.22 Mg C ha yr. Under the assumption that crop production will stay at the 1993 to 2012 average, climate change is predicted to have a minor impact on SOC (approximately -6.5%) relative to crop rotation management. The CQESTR model predicted that the addition of another SW or rye (L.) crop would have a greater effect on SOC stocks (0- to 30-cm depth) than conversion from MT to NT or climate change from 2013 to 2032.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Jebari A, Del Prado A, Pardo G, et al (2018)

Modeling Regional Effects of Climate Change on Soil Organic Carbon in Spain.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(4):644-653.

Soil organic C (SOC) stock assessments at the regional scale under climate change scenarios are of paramount importance in implementing soil management practices to mitigate climate change. In this study, we estimated the changes in SOC sequestration under climate change conditions in agricultural land in Spain using the RothC model at the regional level. Four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2, CGCM2-B2, ECHAM4-A2, and ECHAM4-B2) were used to simulate SOC changes during the 2010 to 2100 period across a total surface area of 2.33 × 10 km. Although RothC predicted a general increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all climate change scenarios, these SOC sequestration rates were smaller than those under baseline conditions. Moreover, this SOC response differed among climate change scenarios, and in some situations, some losses of SOC occurred. The greatest losses of C stocks were found mainly in the ECHAM4 (highest temperature rise and precipitation drop) scenarios and for rainfed and certain woody crops (lower C inputs). Under climate change conditions, management practices including no-tillage for rainfed crops and vegetation cover for woody crops were predicted to double and quadruple C sequestration rates, reaching values of 0.47 and 0.35 Mg C ha yr, respectively.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Nash PR, Gollany HT, Novak JM, et al (2018)

Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Response to Tillage, Yield, and Climate Change in the Southeastern Coastal Plains.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(4):663-673.

Intensive tillage, low-residue crops, and a warm, humid climate have contributed to soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the southeastern Coastal Plains region. Conservation (CnT) tillage and winter cover cropping are current management practices to rebuild SOC; however, there is sparse long-term field data showing how these management practices perform under variable climate conditions. The objectives of this study were to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC in the top 15 cm of a loamy sand soil (fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Kandiudult) under conventional (CvT) or CnT tillage to elucidate the impact of projected climate change and crop yields on SOC relative to management and recommend the best agriculture management to increase SOC. Conservation tillage was predicted to increase SOC by 0.10 to 0.64 Mg C ha for six of eight crop rotations compared with CvT by 2033. The addition of a winter crop [rye (L.) or winter wheat (L.)] to a corn (L.)-cotton (L.) or corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation increased SOC by 1.47 to 2.55 Mg C ha. A continued increase in crop yields following historical trends could increase SOC by 0.28 Mg C ha, whereas climate change is unlikely to have a significant impact on SOC except in the corn-cotton or corn-soybean rotations where SOC decreased up to 0.15 Mg C ha by 2033. The adoption of CnT and cover crop management with high-residue-producing corn will likely increase SOC accretion in loamy sand soils. Simulation results indicate that soil C saturation may be reached in high-residue rotations, and increasing SOC deeper in the soil profile will be required for long-term SOC accretion beyond 2030.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Cavigelli MA, Nash PR, Gollany HT, et al (2018)

Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Changes in Maryland Are Affected by Tillage, Climate Change, and Crop Yield.

Journal of environmental quality, 47(4):588-595.

The impact of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks in no-till (NT) and conventionally tilled (CT) agricultural systems is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of projected climate change on SOC to 50-cm soil depth for grain cropping systems in the southern Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. We used SOC and other data from the long-term Farming Systems Project in Beltsville, MD, and CQESTR, a process-based soil C model, to predict the impact of cropping systems and climate (air temperature and precipitation) on SOC for a 40-yr period (2012-2052). Since future crop yields are uncertain, we simulated five scenarios with differing yield levels (crop yields from 1996-2014, and at 10 or 30% greater or lesser than these yields). Without change in climate or crop yields (baseline conditions) CQESTR predicted an increase in SOC of 0.014 and 0.021 Mg ha yr in CT and NT, respectively. Predicted climate change alone resulted in an SOC increase of only 0.002 Mg ha yr in NT and a decrease of 0.017 Mg ha yr in CT. Crop yield declines of 10 and 30% led to SOC decreases between 2 and 8% compared with 2012 levels. Increasing crop yield by 10 and 30% was sufficient to raise SOC 2 and 7%, respectively, above the climate-only scenario under both CT and NT between 2012 and 2052. Results indicate that under these simulated conditions, the negative impact of climate change on SOC levels could be mitigated by crop yield increases.

RevDate: 2018-07-19

Blum AJ, PJ Hotez (2018)

Global "worming": Climate change and its projected general impact on human helminth infections.

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 12(7):e0006370 pii:PNTD-D-17-02074.

RevDate: 2018-07-19

Wellbery C, Sheffield P, Timmireddy K, et al (2018)

It's Time for Medical Schools to Introduce Climate Change into Their Curricula.

Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change presents unprecedented health risks and demands universal attention to address them. Multiple intergovernmental organizations, health associations, and health professions schools have recognized the specific importance of preparing physicians to address the health impacts of climate change. However, medical school curricula have not kept pace with this urgent need for targeted training.The authors describe the rationale for inclusion of climate change in medical education and some potential pathways for incorporating this broad topic into physician training and continuing medical education. Reasons include the magnitude and reach of this transboundary issue, the shared responsibility of the U.S. health care sector as a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, and the disproportionate effects of climate change on vulnerable populations. The integration of climate-change-related topics with training of essential physician skills in a rapidly changing environment is feasible because many health topic areas already exist in medical school curricula in which climate change education can be incorporated. To fully integrate the health topics, underlying concepts, and the needed clinical and system-wide translations, content could be included across the scope of training and into continuing medical education and faculty development. The authors provide examples of such an approach to curricular inclusion.

RevDate: 2018-07-19

Lauria V, Das I, Hazra S, et al (2018)

Importance of fisheries for food security across three climate change vulnerable deltas.

The Science of the total environment, 640-641:1566-1577.

Deltas are home to a large and growing proportion of the world's population, often living in conditions of extreme poverty. Deltaic ecosystems are ecologically significant as they support high biodiversity and a variety of fisheries, however these coastal environments are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangladesh/India), the Mahanadi (India), and the Volta (Ghana) are among the most important and populous delta regions in the world and they are all considered at risk of food insecurity and climate change. The fisheries sector is vital for populations that live in the three deltas, as a source of animal protein (in Bangladesh and Ghana around 50-60% of animal protein is supplied by fish while in India this is about 12%) through subsistence fishing, as a source of employment and for the wider economy. The aquaculture sector shows a rapid growth in Bangladesh and India while in Ghana this is just starting to expand. The main exported species differ across countries with Ghana and India dominated by marine fish species, whereas Bangladesh exports shrimps and prawns. Fisheries play a more important part in the economy of Bangladesh and Ghana than for India, both men and women work in fisheries, with a higher proportion of women in the Volta then in the Asian deltas. Economic and integrated modelling using future scenarios suggest that changes in temperature and primary production could reduce fish productivity and fisheries income especially in the Volta and Bangladesh deltas, however these losses could be mitigated by reducing overfishing and improving management. The analysis provided in this paper highlights the importance of applying plans for fisheries management at regional level. Minimizing the impacts of climate change while increasing marine ecosystems resilience must be a priority for scientists and governments before these have dramatic impacts on millions of people's lives.

RevDate: 2018-07-19
CmpDate: 2018-07-19

Lipczynska-Kochany E (2018)

Effect of climate change on humic substances and associated impacts on the quality of surface water and groundwater: A review.

The Science of the total environment, 640-641:1548-1565.

Humic substances (HS), a highly transformed part of non-living natural organic matter (NOM), comprise up to 70% of the soil organic matter (SOM), 50-80% of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in surface water, and 25% of DOM in groundwater. They considerably contribute to climate change (CC) by generating greenhouse gases (GHG). On the other hand, CC affects HS, their structure and reactivity. HS important role in global warming has been recognized and extensively studied. However, much less attention has been paid so far to effects on the freshwater quality, which may result from the climate induced impact on HS, and HS interactions with contaminants in soil, surface water and groundwater. It is expected that an increased temperature and enhanced biodegradation of SOM will lead to an increase in the production of DOM, while the flooding and runoff will export it from soil to rivers, lakes, and groundwater. Microbial growth will be stimulated and biodegradation of pollutants in water can be enhanced. However, there may be also negative effects, including an inhibition of solar disinfection in brown lakes. The CC induced desorption from soil and sediments, as well as re-mobilization of metals and organic pollutants are anticipated. In-situ treatment of surface water and groundwater may be affected. Quality of the source freshwater is expected to deteriorate and drinking water production may become more expensive. Many of the possible effects of CC described in this article have yet to be explored and understood. Enormous potential for interesting, multidisciplinary studies in the important research areas has been presented.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Hesselschwerdt J, KM Wantzen (2018)

Global warming may lower thermal barriers against invasive species in freshwater ecosystems - A study from Lake Constance.

The Science of the total environment, 645:44-50 pii:S0048-9697(18)32563-4 [Epub ahead of print].

European freshwater ecosystems are increasingly invaded by exotic animal and plant species. Apart from increased connectivity between previously separated watersheds, the increasing temperature of the hydrosystems favors the spread of exotic species. The freshwater fauna of Central Europe is still shaped by the cold-adapted animal assemblages resulting from the last glaciation. It is less diverse, and the species are putatively less performant competitors, compared to the warm-adapted, species-rich fauna of the Ponto-Caspian realm, from which many current aquatic invaders are coming. Our study analyses potential mechanisms explaining the coexistence between one of the most impacting aquatic invaders of the past decades, the 'killer shrimp' Dikerogammarus villosus and the previously dominating amphipod Gammarus roeselii in Lake Constance, using laboratory predation experiments and field surveys. Our results indicate two key drivers for coexistence: low winter temperatures and the substrate structure of the alga Chara sp. At temperatures below 6 °C, the predation pressure on G. roeselii was strongly reduced; G. roeselii can therefore disperse throughout the littoral in winter, avoiding predation by D. villosus. Artificial heating of a section of the lake shore, however, resulted in local extinction of G. roeselii by D. villosus. The macroalga Chara sp. completely inhibited predation by D. villosus on G. roeselii. Climate change scenarios indicate that global warming might destroy this thermal refuge during winter until 2085. For the survival of G. roeselii it will then be crucial, which part of the Chara population will maintain epigeic plant parts during winter. The complex interplay between thermal and physical refuges for native species in the context of climate change and changing trophic status of freshwater systems, as disentangled by our study, shows that ecosystem management and restoration strategies need to better consider multiple stressors (and their rather complex mitigation strategies).

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Riddell EA, Odom JP, Damm JD, et al (2018)

Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity.

Science advances, 4(7):eaar5471 pii:aar5471.

Extinction rates are predicted to rise exponentially under climate warming, but many of these predictions ignore physiological and behavioral plasticity that might buffer species from extinction. We evaluated the potential for physiological acclimatization and behavioral avoidance of poor climatic conditions to lower extinction risk under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity, a region currently predicted to lose most of the salamander habitat due to warming. Our approach integrated experimental physiology and behavior into a mechanistic species distribution model to predict extinction risk based on an individual's capacity to maintain energy balance with and without plasticity. We assessed the sensitivity of extinction risk to body size, behavioral strategies, limitations on energy intake, and physiological acclimatization of water loss and metabolic rate. The field and laboratory experiments indicated that salamanders readily acclimatize water loss rates and metabolic rates in ways that could maintain positive energy balance. Projections with plasticity reduced extinction risk by 72% under climate warming, especially in the core of their range. Further analyses revealed that juveniles might experience the greatest physiological stress under climate warming, but we identified specific physiological adaptations or plastic responses that could minimize the lethal physiological stress imposed on juveniles. We conclude that incorporating plasticity fundamentally alters ecological predictions under climate change by reducing extinction risk in the hotspot of salamander diversity.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Riquelme C, Estay SA, López R, et al (2018)

Protected areas' effectiveness under climate change: a latitudinal distribution projection of an endangered mountain ungulate along the Andes Range.

PeerJ, 6:e5222 pii:5222.

Background: Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.

Methods: To estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)-RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.

Results: Based on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86-60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57-64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57-34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79-31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.

Discussion: Modeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.

RevDate: 2018-07-17

Metcalfe DB, Hermans TDG, Ahlstrand J, et al (2018)

Patchy field sampling biases understanding of climate change impacts across the Arctic.

Nature ecology & evolution pii:10.1038/s41559-018-0612-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Effective societal responses to rapid climate change in the Arctic rely on an accurate representation of region-specific ecosystem properties and processes. However, this is limited by the scarcity and patchy distribution of field measurements. Here, we use a comprehensive, geo-referenced database of primary field measurements in 1,840 published studies across the Arctic to identify statistically significant spatial biases in field sampling and study citation across this globally important region. We find that 31% of all study citations are derived from sites located within 50 km of just two research sites: Toolik Lake in the USA and Abisko in Sweden. Furthermore, relatively colder, more rapidly warming and sparsely vegetated sites are under-sampled and under-recognized in terms of citations, particularly among microbiology-related studies. The poorly sampled and cited areas, mainly in the Canadian high-Arctic archipelago and the Arctic coastline of Russia, constitute a large fraction of the Arctic ice-free land area. Our results suggest that the current pattern of sampling and citation may bias the scientific consensuses that underpin attempts to accurately predict and effectively mitigate climate change in the region. Further work is required to increase both the quality and quantity of sampling, and incorporate existing literature from poorly cited areas to generate a more representative picture of Arctic climate change and its environmental impacts.

RevDate: 2018-07-17

Cuthbertson J, Archer F, A Robertson (2018)

Special Report: WADEM Climate Change Position Statement.

Prehospital and disaster medicine pii:S1049023X18000535 [Epub ahead of print].

The World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WADEM; Madison, Wisconsin USA) is a multi-disciplinary professional association whose mission is the global improvement of prehospital and emergency health care, public health, and disaster health and preparedness. In April 2017, the biennial general meeting of the World Congress for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WCDEM) endorsed the WADEM Climate Change Position Statement, which was subsequently published in Prehospital and Disaster Medicine in July 2017. This special report examines literature used and reviews the process of development of this Position Statement as a product of WADEM.Cuthbertson J, Archer F, Robertson A. Special report: WADEM climate change position statement.

RevDate: 2018-07-16

Damert M, RJ Baumgartner (2018)

Intra-Sectoral Differences in Climate Change Strategies: Evidence from the Global Automotive Industry.

Business strategy and the environment, 27(3):265-281.

Companies are increasingly challenged for action on climate change. Most studies on business responses to climate change focus on cross-sector comparisons and neglect intra-sectoral dynamics. This paper investigates the influence of supply chain position and regional affiliation on climate change strategies within a particular industry. We present a generic framework integrating both market and non-market responses to climate change. We argue that climate change strategies comprise several corporate activities that have different foci of interaction and four main objectives: governance, innovation, compensation and legitimation. Using a global sample of 116 automotive companies, we conduct a cluster analysis and identify four types of strategy. We find that the sophistication of automobile manufacturers' strategies significantly differs from that of suppliers. Regional affiliation and firm size prove to be determinants of the strategy type pursued. We cannot find evidence for a relationship between financial performance and a company's strategic approach to climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Business Strategy and the Environment published by ERP Environment and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

RevDate: 2018-07-15

Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, et al (2018)

Erratum: "Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe".

Environmental health perspectives, 126(7):079002 pii:EHP2073.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1289/EHP173.].

RevDate: 2018-07-14

Chefaoui RM, Duarte CM, EA Serrão (2018)

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well-documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst-case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050, and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-07-17

Zhu K, Zhang J, Niu S, et al (2018)

Limits to growth of forest biomass carbon sink under climate change.

Nature communications, 9(1):2709 pii:10.1038/s41467-018-05132-5.

Widely recognized as a significant carbon sink, North American forests have experienced a history of recovery and are facing an uncertain future. This growing carbon sink is dictated by recovery from land-use change, with growth trajectory modified by environmental change. To address both processes, we compiled a forest inventory dataset from North America to quantify aboveground biomass growth with stand age across forest types and climate gradients. Here we show, the biomass grows from 90 Mg ha-1 (2000-2016) to 105 Mg ha-1 (2020 s), 128 Mg ha-1 (2050 s), and 146 Mg ha-1 (2080 s) under climate change scenarios with no further disturbances. Climate change modifies the forest recovery trajectory to some extent, but the overall growth is limited, showing signs of biomass saturation. The future (2080s) biomass will only sequester at most 22% more carbon than the current level. Given such a strong sink has limited growth potential, our ground-based analysis suggests policy changes to sustain the carbon sink.

RevDate: 2018-07-13

Chersich MF, Scorgie F, Rees H, et al (2018)

How climate change can fuel listeriosis outbreaks in South Africa.

South African medical journal = Suid-Afrikaanse tydskrif vir geneeskunde, 108(6):453-454.

RevDate: 2018-07-13

Champion C, Hobday AJ, Tracey SR, et al (2018)

Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterised using citizen science data and remotely-sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22-years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and inter-annual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km decade-1) and poleward edge (108.8 km decade-1) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high-latitudes also increased by approximately three months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-07-12

Reino L, Triviño M, Beja P, et al (2018)

Modelling landscape constraints on farmland bird species range shifts under climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 625:1596-1605.

Several studies estimating the effects of global environmental change on biodiversity are focused on climate change. Yet, non-climatic factors such as changes in land cover can also be of paramount importance. This may be particularly important for habitat specialists associated with human-dominated landscapes, where land cover and climate changes may be largely decoupled. Here, we tested this idea by modelling the influence of climate, landscape composition and pattern, on the predicted future (2021-2050) distributions of 21 farmland bird species in the Iberian Peninsula, using boosted regression trees and 10-km resolution presence/absence data. We also evaluated whether habitat specialist species were more affected by landscape factors than generalist species. Overall, this study showed that the contribution of current landscape composition and pattern to the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) was relatively low. However, SDMs built using either climate or climate plus landscape variables yielded very different predictions of future species range shifts and, hence, of the geographical patterns of change in species richness. Our results indicate that open habitat specialist species tend to expand their range, whereas habitat generalist species tend to retract under climate change scenarios. The effect of incorporating landscape factors were particularly marked on open habitat specialists of conservation concern, for which the expected expansion under climate change seems to be severely constrained by land cover change. Overall, results suggest that particular attention should be given to landscape change in addition to climate when modelling the impacts of environmental changes for both farmland specialist and generalist bird distributions.

RevDate: 2018-07-11

Healy TM, Brennan RS, Whitehead A, et al (2018)

Tolerance traits related to climate change resilience are independent and polygenic.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The resilience of organisms to climate change through adaptive evolution is dependent on the extent of genetically based variation in key phenotypic traits and the nature of genetic associations between them. For aquatic animals, upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are likely to be important determinants of sensitivity to climate change. To determine the genetic basis of these traits and to detect associations between them, we compared naturally occurring populations of two subspecies of Atlantic killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus, that differ in both thermal and hypoxia tolerance. Multi-locus association mapping demonstrated that 47 and 35 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) explained 43.4% and 51.9% of variation in thermal and hypoxia tolerance, respectively, suggesting that genetic mechanisms underlie substantial proportions of variation in each trait. However, no explanatory SNPs were shared between traits, and upper thermal tolerance varied approximately linearly with latitude, whereas hypoxia tolerance exhibited a steep phenotypic break across the contact zone between the subspecies. These results suggest that upper thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are neither phenotypically correlated nor genetically associated, and thus that rates of adaptive change in these traits can be independently fine-tuned by natural selection. This modularity of important traits can underpin the evolvability of organisms to complex future environmental change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2018-07-11

Thirumalai K (2018)

A fresh take on ancient climate change in the North Pacific.

Nature, 559(7713):185-186.

RevDate: 2018-07-12

Shaffril HAM, Krauss SE, SF Samsuddin (2018)

A systematic review on Asian's farmers' adaptation practices towards climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 644:683-695 pii:S0048-9697(18)32425-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change in Asia is affecting farmers' daily routines. Much of the focus surrounding climate change has targeted the economic and environmental repercussions on farming. Few systematic reviews have been carried out on the social impacts of climate change among farmers in Asia. The present article set out to analyse the existing literature on Asian farmers' adaptation practices towards the impacts of climate change. Guided by the PRISMA Statement (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) review method, a systematic review of the Scopus and Web of Science databases identified 38 related studies. Further review of these articles resulted in six main themes - crop management, irrigation and water management, farm management, financial management, physical infrastructure management and social activities. These six themes further produced a total of 35 sub-themes. Several recommendations are highlighted related to conducting more qualitative studies, to have specific and a standard systematic review method for guide research synthesis in context of climate change adaptation and to practice complimentary searching techniques such as citation tracking, reference searching, snowballing and contacting experts.

RevDate: 2018-07-20

Gateau-Rey L, Tanner EVJ, Rapidel B, et al (2018)

Climate change could threaten cocoa production: Effects of 2015-16 El Niño-related drought on cocoa agroforests in Bahia, Brazil.

PloS one, 13(7):e0200454 pii:PONE-D-18-11330.

Climate models predict a possible increase in the frequency of strong climate events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which in parts of the tropics are the cause of exceptional droughts, these threaten global food production. Agroforestry systems are often suggested as promising diversification options to increase farmers' resilience to extreme climatic events. In the Northeastern state of Bahia, where most Brazilian cocoa is grown in wildlife-friendly agroforests, ENSOs cause severe droughts which negatively affect forest and agriculture. Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) is described as being sensitive to drought but there are no field-studies of the effect of ENSO-related drought on adult cocoa trees in the America's; there is one study of an experimentally-imposed drought in Indonesia which resulted in 10 to 46% yield loss. In our study, in randomly chosen farms in Bahia, Brazil, we measured the effect of the 2015-16 severe ENSO, which caused an unprecedented drought in cocoa agroforests. We show that drought caused high cocoa tree mortality (15%) and severely decreased cocoa yield (89%); the drought also increased infection rate of the chronic fungal disease witches' broom (Moniliophthora perniciosa). Ours findings showed that Brazilian cocoa agroforests are at risk and that increasing frequency of strong droughts are likely to cause decreased cocoa yields in the coming decades. Furthermore, because cocoa, like many crops, is grown somewhat beyond its climatic limits, it and other crops could be the 'canaries in the coalmine' warning of forthcoming major drought effects on semi-natural and natural vegetation.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
21454 NE 143rd Street
Woodinville, WA 98077

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )