Viewport Size Code:
Login | Create New Account


About | Classical Genetics | Timelines | What's New | What's Hot

About | Classical Genetics | Timelines | What's New | What's Hot


Bibliography Options Menu

Hide Abstracts   |   Hide Additional Links
Long bibliographies are displayed in blocks of 100 citations at a time. At the end of each block there is an option to load the next block.

Bibliography on: Climate Change

The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project: Providing world-wide, free access to classic scientific papers and other scholarly materials, since 1993.


ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 18 Jun 2021 at 01:36 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)


RevDate: 2021-06-15

Robinson WA (2021)

Climate Change and Extreme Weather: a Review Focusing on the Continental United States.

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995) [Epub ahead of print].

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the Earth. It is likely that the greatest impacts of climate change on human and natural systems will come from increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather and climate events. Some increases in such extremes are already being detected, and this trend is projected to continue as Earth warms. Here we review the overarching climate drivers of increases in extreme weather and address the context in which extremes occur and the challenges of projecting future changes. The observational evidence for climate-driven increases in extremes and the implications of model projections are reviewed for heat and drought and several types of storms: tropical cyclones, midlatitude storms, and severe local weather, focusing on those changes most relevant to the continental United States. We emphasize the overall observed and modeled trends in extreme weather in which we have the greatest confidence, because they are consistent with our fundamental understanding of weather and climate. Despite remaining uncertainty about many details, especially in model-based projections, the signal of increasing extremes is sufficiently clear that it demands a robust human response, in limiting future emissions of greenhouse gases and in making our human systems more resilient to further changes that are inevitable as Earth continues to warm.

RevDate: 2021-06-15

Gruenberg K, Apollonio D, MacDougall C, et al (2017)

Sustainable Pharmacy: Piloting a Session on Pharmaceuticals, Climate Change, and Sustainability within a U.S. Pharmacy Curriculum.

Innovations in pharmacy, 8(4):.

Objective: To design and assess an innovative session for pharmacy students that addresses the role of pharmaceuticals with climate change and sustainability.

Innovation: One hundred and sixteen third-year students at the University of California, San Francisco School of Pharmacy participated during their required Health Policy course. This 3-hour session included guided pre-course activities, an interactive lecture, a panel of healthcare professionals discussing complex decision-making and small group case-based learning. Curricular assessment was conducted through pre-/post-test measures of knowledge acquisition, student evaluations, and course projects.

Critical Analysis: One hundred and two students (response rate 88%) completed the pre-test and 115 students (response rate 99%) completed the post-test assessment. We identified a significant increase in the proportion of correct answers on post-test questions addressing drug disposal legislation (75% pre-test vs 91% post-test, p=0.002) and the predicted effects of climate change on health (55% pre-test vs 90% post-test, p < 0.001). The session was also well received; average student evaluation scores were above 4 in all areas of course evaluation (where 5=ideal). In addition, 17% of student groups (relative to 0% in 2015) proposed a sustainability-related policy as their final coursework project.

Next Steps: The development and implementation of this brief session resulted in knowledge gain and favorable student response. This project is feasible for other Schools of Pharmacy to adapt and implement.

RevDate: 2021-06-14

Abirami B, Radhakrishnan M, Kumaran S, et al (2021)

Impacts of global warming on marine microbial communities.

The Science of the total environment, 791:147905 pii:S0048-9697(21)02976-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Global warming in ocean ecosystems alters temperature, acidification, oxygen content, circulation, stratification, and nutrient inputs. Microorganisms play a dominant role in global biogeochemical cycles crucial for a planet's sustainability. Since microbial communities are highly dependent on the temperature factor, fluctuations in the same will lead to adverse effects on the microbial community organization. Throughout the Ocean, increase in evaporation rates causes the surface mixed layer to become shallower. This intensified stratification inhibits vertical transport of nutrient supplies. Such density driven processes will decrease oxygen solubility in surface waters leading to significant decrease of oxygen from future Ocean. Metabolism and diversity of microbes along with ocean biogeochemistry will be at great risk due to global warming and its related effects. As a response to the changes in temperature, alteration in the distribution of phytoplankta communities is observed all over the planet, creating changes in the primary production of the ocean causing massive impact on the biosphere. Marine microbial communities try to adapt to the changing ocean environmental conditions by responding with biogeographic range shifts, community structure modifications, and adaptive evolution. Persistence of this climate change on ocean ecosystems, in future, will pose serious threat to the metabolism and distribution of marine microbes leading to fluctuations in the biogeochemical cycles thereby affecting the overall ecosystem functioning. Genomics plays an important role in marine microbial research by providing tools to study the association between environment and organisms. The ecological and genomic perspectives of marine microbes are being investigated to design effective models to understand their physiology and evolution in a changing ocean. Mesocosm/microcosm experimental studies and field studies are in the need of the hour to evaluate the impact of climate shifts on microbial genesis.

RevDate: 2021-06-14

Bongioanni P, Del Carratore R, Corbianco S, et al (2021)

Climate change and neurodegenerative diseases.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(21)00805-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The climate change induced global warming, and in particular the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, have been linked to health problems. Among them, scientific works have been reporting an increased incidence of neurological diseases, encompassing also neurodegenerative ones, such as Dementia of Alzheimer's type, Parkinson's Disease, and Motor Neuron Diseases. Although the increase in prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases is well documented by literature reports, the link between global warming and the enhanced prevalence of such diseases remains elusive. This is the main theme of our work, which aims to examine the connection between high temperature exposure and neurodegenerative diseases. Firstly, we evaluate the influence of high temperatures exposure on the pathophysiology of these disorders. Secondly, we discuss its effects on the thermoregulation, already compromised in affected patients, and its interference with processes of excitotoxicity, oxidative stress and neuroinflammation, all of them related with neurodegeneration. Finally, we investigate chronic versus acute stressors on body warming, and put forward a possible interpretation of the beneficial or detrimental effects on the brain, which is responsible for the incidence or progression of neurological disorders.

RevDate: 2021-06-14

Ehsanullah S, Tran QH, Sadiq M, et al (2021)

How energy insecurity leads to energy poverty? Do environmental consideration and climate change concerns matters.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

The aim of the study is to estimate the nexus between energy insecurity and energy poverty with the role of climate change and other environmental concerns. We used DEA like WP methods and properties of MCDA, a most common form of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate the nexus between constructs. This paper presents a measurement and analysis of G7 countries' energy, economic, social, and environmental performance associated with energy poverty indexes. The study used the multiple, comprehensive, and relevant set of indicators, including energy economics and environmental consideration of energy poverty. The net energy consumption of al G7 economies is equal to 34 percent of the entire world along with the net estimate GDP score of around 50 percent. Using DEA modelling and estimation technique, our research presented valuable insights for readers, theorists and policy makers on energy, environment, energy poverty and climate change mitigation. For this reasons, all these indicators combined in a mathematical composite indicator to measure energy, economic, social, and environmental performance index (EPI). Results show that Canada has the highest EPII score, which shows that Canada's capacity to deal with energy self-sufficiency, economic development, and environmental performance is greater than the other G7 countries. France and Italy rank second and third. Japan comes next with 0.50 EPI scores, while the USA has the lowest average EPI score environment vulnerable even though have higher economic development among the G7 group countries. We suggest a policy framework to strengthen the subject matter of the study.

RevDate: 2021-06-15

Ranadive N, Desai J, Sathish LM, et al (2021)

Climate Change Adaptation: Prehospital Data Facilitate the Detection of Acute Heat Illness in India.

The western journal of emergency medicine, 22(3):739-749 pii:westjem.2020.11.48209.

INTRODUCTION: Extreme heat is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, and the incidence of acute heat illness (AHI) will likely increase secondary to anthropogenic climate change. Prompt diagnosis and treatment of AHI are critical; however, relevant diagnostic and surveillance tools have received little attention. In this exploratory cross-sectional and diagnostic accuracy study, we evaluated three tools for use in the prehospital setting: 1) case definitions; 2) portable loggers to measure on-scene heat exposure; and 3) prevalence data for potential AHI risk factors.

METHODS: We enrolled 480 patients who presented to emergency medical services with chief complaints consistent with AHI in Ahmedabad, India, from April-June 2016 in a cross-sectional study. We evaluated AHI case definition test characteristics in reference to trained prehospital provider impressions, compared on-scene heat index measured by portable loggers to weather station measurements, and identified AHI behavioral and environmental risk factors using logistic regression.

RESULTS: The case definition for heat exhaustion was 23.8% (12.1-39.5%) sensitive and 93.6% (90.9-95.7%) specific. The positive and negative predictive values were 33.5% (20.8-49.0%) and 90.1% (88.5-91.5%), respectively. Mean scene heat index was 6.7°C higher than the mean station heat index (P < 0.001), and station data systematically underestimated heat exposure, particularly for AHI cases. Heat exhaustion cases were associated with on-scene heat index ≥ 49°C (odds ratio [OR] 2.66 [1.13-6.25], P = 0.025) and a history of recent exertion (OR 3.66 [1.30-10.29], P = 0.014), while on-scene air conditioning was protective (OR 0.29 [0.10-0.85], P = 0.024).

CONCLUSION: Systematic collection of prehospital data including recent activity history and presence of air conditioning can facilitate early AHI detection, timely intervention, and surveillance. Scene temperature data can be reliably collected and improve heat exposure and AHI risk assessment. Such data may be important elements of surveillance, clinical practice, and climate change adaptation.

RevDate: 2021-06-15

Morrison SA, Périard JD, De Boever P, et al (2021)

Editorial: The Effects of Climate Change and Environmental Factors on Exercising Children and Youth.

Frontiers in sports and active living, 3:690171.

RevDate: 2021-06-15
CmpDate: 2021-06-15

Mansuroğlu S, Dağ V, A Kalaycı Önaç (2021)

Attitudes of people toward climate change regarding the bioclimatic comfort level in tourism cities; evidence from Antalya, Turkey.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 193(7):420.

In addition to several negative environmental effects, climate change, which reduces bioclimatic comfort levels especially in urban areas, also has economic implications, especially in cities where the economic structure is tourism-oriented. Considering most of the tourism practices are based on outdoor activities in cities such as Antalya, it is of great importance to determine bioclimatic comfort level as well as the attitudes of people toward climate change who live in those conditions to be able to take proper precautions in terms of tourism and urban planning. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to reveal the bioclimatic comfort conditions of Antalya city center, and a comprehensive questionnaire was conducted with the people living in the area questioning the opinions on reasons and consequences of climate change, perceivable effects of climate change in Antalya, and suggestions to prevent or reduce the adverse effects. The areas with appropriate bioclimatic comfort conditions were determined and mapped via geographical information systems using temperature and relative humidity data of the years between 1960 and 2018. The data gathered via questionnaires were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis, regression, correlation, and structural equation modelling via SPSS and AMOS software. According to the results, it was determined that in some parts of city center the bioclimatic comfort conditions decreased to levels that could reach harmful dimensions for human health and the analysis of the questionnaires revealed that people living in that area state that the effects of climate change are perceivable as the precipitation seasons have become irregular. According to the participants, it was determined that a 1-unit increase in environmental measures causes a decrease of 0.136 units in disasters (R2 = 1.1%). In comparison, 1-unit increase of Administrative Precautions will cause 0.030 units decrease in effects of climate change on vital needs (R2 = 1.4%). These analysis results show that the respondents expect the disaster scenarios to decrease when environmental measures are increased.

RevDate: 2021-06-15

Ge J, B Lin (2021)

Impact of public support and government's policy on climate change in China.

Journal of environmental management, 294:112983 pii:S0301-4797(21)01045-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is a global environmental issue that would damage the natural and biological systems. Although there are many controversies about climate change, the temperature rise has become more and more obvious in the world since the 1990s. It is worthwhile to understand whether the public supports the government's policy on climate change and how public support affects climate change. A case study of the first-tier cities in China is done to explore these questions through questionnaire surveys. 3468 valid questionnaires from four first-tier cities in China were screened out are used for individual behavior analysis. The results show that the respondents' perceptions towards climate change in China are laxer than those in other countries, meanwhile, they hope that the government would respond to climate change actively. The influencing factors mainly include the demographic characteristics and their perception of climate change. Demographic characteristics are about gender, income, marital status, age, and whether they have children. Moreover, respondents' perception of climate change has a significant impact on their attitudes towards the government's policies for mitigating climate change. The conclusions are drawn based on the comparative analysis of the survey results and suggestions are put forward for making climate change policies.

RevDate: 2021-06-15

Piquet JC, Warren DL, Saavedra Bolaños JF, et al (2021)

Could climate change benefit invasive snakes? Modelling the potential distribution of the California Kingsnake in the Canary Islands.

Journal of environmental management, 294:112917 pii:S0301-4797(21)00979-8 [Epub ahead of print].

The interaction between climate change and biological invasions is a global conservation challenge with major consequences for invasive species management. However, our understanding of this interaction has substantial knowledge gaps; this is particularly relevant for invasive snakes on islands because they can be a serious threat to island ecosystems. Here we evaluated the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of invasive snakes on islands, using the invasion of the California kingsnake (Lampropeltis californiae) in Gran Canaria. We analysed the potential distribution of L. californiae under current and future climatic conditions in the Canary Islands, with the underlying hypothesis that the archipelago might be suitable for the species under these climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the Canary Islands are currently highly suitable for the invasive snake, with increased suitability under the climate change scenarios tested here. This study supports the idea that invasive reptiles represent a substantial threat to near-tropical regions, and builds on previous studies suggesting that the menace of invasive reptiles may persist or even be exacerbated by climate change. We suggest future research should continue to fill the knowledge gap regarding invasive reptiles, in particular snakes, to clarify their potential future impacts on global biodiversity.

RevDate: 2021-06-13

Flores F, Marques JA, Uthicke S, et al (2021)

Combined effects of climate change and the herbicide diuron on the coral Acropora millepora.

Marine pollution bulletin, 169:112582 pii:S0025-326X(21)00616-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is threatened by climate change and local pressures, including contaminants in nearshore habitats. This study investigated the combined effects of a GBR-relevant contaminant, the herbicide diuron, under current and two future climate scenarios on the coral Acropora millepora. All physiological responses tested (effective quantum yield (ΔF/Fm'), photosynthesis, calcification rate) were negatively affected with increasing concentrations of diuron. Interactive effects between diuron and climate were observed for all responses; however, climate had no significant effect on ΔF/Fm' or calcification rates. Photosynthesis was negatively affected as the climate scenarios were adjusted from ambient (28.1 °C, pCO2 = 397 ppm) to RCP8.5 2050 (29.1 °C, pCO2 = 680 ppm) and 2100 (30.2 °C, pCO2 = 858 ppm) with EC50 values declining from 19.4 to 10.6 and 2.6 μg L-1 diuron in turn. These results highlight the likelihood that water quality guideline values may need to be adjusted as the climate changes.

RevDate: 2021-06-13

Ji Y, K Gao (2021)

Effects of climate change factors on marine macroalgae: A review.

Advances in marine biology, 88:91-136.

Marine macroalgae, the main primary producers in coastal waters, play important roles in the fishery industry and global carbon cycles. With progressive ocean global changes, however, they are increasingly exposed to enhanced levels of multiple environmental drivers, such as ocean acidification, warming, heatwaves, UV radiation and deoxygenation. While most macroalgae have developed physiological strategies against variations of these drivers, their eco-physiological responses to each or combinations of the drivers differ spatiotemporally and species-specifically. Many freshwater macroalgae are tolerant of pH drop and its diel fluctuations and capable of acclimating to changes in carbonate chemistry. However, calcifying species, such as coralline algae, are very sensitive to acidification of seawater, which reduces their calcification, and additionally, temperature rise and UV further decrease their physiological performance. Except for these calcifying species, both economically important and harmful macroalgae can benefit from elevated CO2 concentrations and moderate temperature rise, which might be responsible for increasing events of harmful macroalgal blooms including green macroalgal blooms caused by Ulva spp. and golden tides caused by Sargassum spp. Upper intertidal macroalgae, especially those tolerant of dehydration during low tide, increase their photosynthesis under elevated CO2 concentrations during the initial dehydration period, however, these species might be endangered by heatwaves, which can expose them to high temperature levels above their thermal windows' upper limit. On the other hand, since macroalgae are distributed in shallow waters, they are inevitably exposed to solar UV radiation. The effects of UV radiation, depending on weather conditions and species, can be harmful as well as beneficial to many species. Moderate levels of UV-A (315-400nm) can enhance photosynthesis of green, brown and red algae, while UV-B (280-315nm) mainly show inhibitory impacts. Although little has been documented on the combined effects of elevated CO2, temperature or heatwaves with UV radiation, exposures to heatwaves during midday under high levels of UV radiation can be detrimental to most species, especially to their microscopic stages which are less tolerant of climate change induced stress. In parallel, reduced availability of dissolved O2 in coastal water along with eutrophication might favour the macroalgae's carboxylation process by suppressing their oxygenation or photorespiration. In this review, we analyse effects of climate change-relevant drivers individually and/or jointly on different macroalgal groups and different life cycle stages based on the literatures surveyed, and provide perspectives for future studies.

RevDate: 2021-06-12

Maebe K, Hart AF, Marshall L, et al (2021)

Bumblebee resilience to climate change, through plastic and adaptive responses.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Bumblebees are ubiquitous, cold-adapted eusocial bees found worldwide from subarctic to tropical regions of the world. They are key pollinators in most temperate and boreal ecosystems, and both wild and managed populations are significant contributors to agricultural pollination services. Despite their broad ecological niche at the genus level, bumblebee species are threatened by climate change, particularly by rising average temperatures, intensifying seasonality and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. While some temperature extremes may be offset at the individual or colony level through temperature regulation, most bumblebees are expected to exhibit specific plastic responses, selection in various key traits, and/or range contractions under even the mildest climate change. In this review, we provide an in-depth and up-to-date review on the various ways by which bumblebees overcome the threats associated with current and future global change. We use examples relevant to the fields of bumblebee physiology, morphology, behaviour, phenology, and dispersal to illustrate and discuss the contours of this new theoretical framework. Furthermore, we speculate on the extent to which adaptive responses to climate change may be influenced by bumblebees' capacity to disperse and track suitable climate conditions. Closing the knowledge gap and improving our understanding of bumblebees' adaptability or avoidance behaviour to different climatic circumstances will be necessary to improve current species climate response models. These models are essential to make correct predictions of species vulnerability in the face of future climate change and human-induced environmental changes in order to unfold appropriate future conservation strategies.

RevDate: 2021-06-11

van Swol LM, Bloomfield EF, Chang CT, et al (2021)

Fostering climate change consensus: The role of intimacy in group discussions.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

This study examined if creating intimacy in a group discussion is more effective toward reaching consensus about climate change than a focus on information. Participants were randomly assigned to either a group that spent the first part of an online discussion engaging in self-disclosure and focusing on shared values (intimacy condition) or discussing information from an article about climate change (information condition). Afterward, all groups were given the same instructions to try to come to group consensus on their opinions about climate change. Participants in the intimacy condition had higher ratings of social cohesion, group attraction, task interdependence, and collective engagement and lower ratings of ostracism than the information condition. Intimacy groups were more likely to reach consensus, with ostracism and the emotional tone of discussion mediating this effect. Participants were more likely to change their opinion to reflect that climate change is real in the intimacy than information condition.

RevDate: 2021-06-10

Fan M, Xu J, Chen Y, et al (2021)

Modeling streamflow driven by climate change in data-scarce mountainous basins.

The Science of the total environment, 790:148256 pii:S0048-9697(21)03327-1 [Epub ahead of print].

The impacts of climate change on the water environment have aroused widespread concern. With global warming, mountainous basins are facing serious water supply situations. However, there are limited meteorological stations on mountains, which thus creates a challenge in terms of accurate simulation of streamflow and water resources. To solve this problem, this study developed a method to model streamflow in data-scarce mountainous basins. Selecting the two head waters originating in the Tienshan mountains, Aksu and Kaidu Rivers, we firstly reconstructed precipitation and temperature dynamics based on Earth system data products, and then integrated the radial basis function artificial neural network and complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise to model streamflow. Comparison with the observed streamflow according to hydrological stations indicated that the proposed approach was highly accurate. The modeling results showed that the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, temperature, precipitation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation are the main factors driving streamflow, and the streamflow decreased in both the Aksu River and Kaidu River between 2000 and 2017.

RevDate: 2021-06-10

Des M, Fernández-Nóvoa D, deCastro M, et al (2021)

Modeling salinity drop in estuarine areas under extreme precipitation events within a context of climate change: Effect on bivalve mortality in Galician Rías Baixas.

The Science of the total environment, 790:148147 pii:S0048-9697(21)03218-6 [Epub ahead of print].

The mortality of infaunal bivalves (Venerupis corrugata, Cerastoderma edule, Ruditapes decussatus and Ruditapes philippinarum) due to a drop in salinity caused by extreme precipitation events in estuarine areas has been analyzed within a context of climate change. The Rías Baixas (NW Iberian Peninsula) were selected as a representative area of the estuarine environments where bivalve gathering is performed. Bivalve mortality under extreme precipitation events was analyzed both for historical (1990-2019) and future (2070-2099) periods. Precipitation data were retrieved from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and were converted into river discharges using the HEC-HMS hydrological model. The calculated river discharges were introduced into the Delft3D hydrodynamic model and simulations were performed in order to calculate transport conditions in the Rías Baixas. Salinity data were analyzed to estimate the mortality of the species due to salinity drops. In general, future conditions of moderate and severe mortality may be worse than historically observed, being more intense and covering larger areas. This is mainly observed under neap tides due to less dilution of freshwater plumes when compared with spring tides. Although all the Rías Baixas may be potentially affected, the impact will differ for each ria, being Arousa, where the highest discharges occur, the most affected. The differences among rias, especially those with a similar discharge pattern as Pontevedra and Vigo, suggest that bathymetric features also play a key role in the extent of the area affected by mortality.

RevDate: 2021-06-10

Lodeyro AF, Krapp AR, N Carrillo (2021)

Photosynthesis and chloroplast redox signaling in the age of global warming: stress tolerance, acclimation and developmental plasticity.

Journal of experimental botany pii:6296032 [Epub ahead of print].

Contemporary climate change is characterized by the increased intensity and frequency of environmental stress events such as floods, droughts and heatwaves, which have a debilitating impact on photosynthesis and growth, compromising the production of food, feed and biofuels for an expanding population. The need to increase crop productivity in the context of global warming has fueled attempts to improve several key plant features such as photosynthetic performance, assimilate partitioning and tolerance to environmental stresses. Chloroplast redox metabolism, including photosynthetic electron transport and CO2 reductive assimilation, are primary targets of most stress conditions, leading to excessive excitation pressure, photodamage and propagation of reactive oxygen species. Alterations in chloroplast redox poise, in turn, provide signals that exit the plastid and modulate plant responses to the environmental conditions. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in these processes could provide novel tools to increase crop yield in sub-optimal environments. We describe herein various interventions into chloroplast redox networks that resulted in increased tolerance to multiple sources of environmental stress. They included manipulation of endogenous components and introduction of electron carriers from other organisms, which affected not only stress endurance but also leaf size and longevity. The resulting scenario indicates that chloroplast redox pathways have an important impact on plant growth, development and defense that goes beyond their roles in primary metabolism. Manipulation of these processes provide additional strategies for the design of crops with improved performance under destabilized climate conditions as foreseen in the future.

RevDate: 2021-06-10

Cameron L, Rocque R, Penner K, et al (2021)

Evidence-based communication on climate change and health: Testing videos, text, and maps on climate change and Lyme disease in Manitoba, Canada.

PloS one, 16(6):e0252952 pii:PONE-D-20-37023.

Given the climate crisis and its cumulative impacts on public health, effective communication strategies that engage the public in adaptation and mitigation are critical. Many have argued that a health frame increases engagement, as do visual methodologies including online and interactive platforms, yet to date there has been limited research on audience responses to health messaging using visual interventions. This study explores public attitudes regarding communication tools focused on climate change and climate-affected Lyme disease through six focus groups (n = 61) in rural and urban southern Manitoba, Canada. The results add to the growing evidence of the efficacy of visual and storytelling methods in climate communications and argues for a continuum of mediums: moving from video, text, to maps. Findings underscore the importance of tailoring both communication messages and mediums to increase uptake of adaptive health and environmental behaviours, for some audiences bridging health and climate change while for others strategically decoupling them.

RevDate: 2021-06-10

Rankoana SA (2021)

Climate change impacts on indigenous health promotion: the case study of Dikgale community in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Global health promotion [Epub ahead of print].

The most important determinants of indigenous health promotion are availability and accessibility of water, food and traditional medicine. It is for this reason that the 1986 Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion proposed the inclusion of food, water and ecosystems in any health promotion strategies. The present study describes the extent to which climate change in the form of rainfall scarcity and increased temperatures impacts the availability and accessibility of quality water, food and traditional medicine as basic determinants of indigenous health promotion. In-depth interviews were conducted with 240 participants purposely selected from Dikgale community in Limpopo Province, South Africa. The study results show that availability and accessibility of water, food and traditional medicine are negatively impacted by increased temperature and scarcity of rainfall. These resources are scarcely encountered, and where they exist, they are of poor quality. However, community members resorted to modern technological practices such as sourcing water from the municipal water reticulation system, buying foodstuffs from retail outlets and immunization against disease via modern health care facilities. It can be deduced from the study that the prerequisites of indigenous health promotion are climate-sensitive. They become available and accessible under favourable climate conditions, and are scarce under unfavourable climate conditions, a situation that compromises the practice of indigenous health promotion.

RevDate: 2021-06-10

Hochachka G (2021)

Finding shared meaning in the Anthropocene: engaging diverse perspectives on climate change.

Sustainability science pii:965 [Epub ahead of print].

The scientific evidence of climate change has never been clearer and more convergent, and calls for transformations to sustainability have never been greater. Yet, perspectives and social opinions about it remain fractured, and collaborative action is faltering. Climate policy seeks to forge a singular sense of climate change, dominated by an 'information deficit model' that focuses on transferring climate science to the lay public. Critics argue that this leaves out certain perspectives, including the plurality of meanings uncovered through participatory approaches. However, questions remain about how these approaches can better account for nuances in the psychological complexity of climate change, without getting stuck in the cul-de-sacs of epistemological relativism and post-truth politics. In this paper, I explore an approach through which we might find shared meaning at the interface of individual and collective views about climate change. I first present a conceptual framework that describes five psychological reasons why climate change challenges individual and collective meaning-making, and also provides a way to understand how meaning is organized within that. I then use this framework to inform the use of photo voice as a transformative (action-research) method, examining its ability to overcome some of the meaning-making challenges specific to climate change. I discuss how participants from a coffee cooperative in Guatemala reflected first on their own climate meanings and then engaged in a meaning-making process with other actors in the coffee value chain. Findings suggest a psychosocial approach to climate engagement-one that engages both subjectively and intersubjectively on the complexities unique to climate change-is helpful in acknowledging an ontological pluralism of 'climate changes' amongst individuals, while also supporting a nexus-agreement collectively. This may in turn contribute to a more effective and ethical process of transformation.

RevDate: 2021-06-09

McManus LC, Forrest DL, Tekwa EW, et al (2021)

Evolution and connectivity influence the persistence and recovery of coral reefs under climate change in the Caribbean, Southwest Pacific, and Coral Triangle.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly within the context of both ecological and evolutionary processes across complex seascapes that differ in temperature range, strength of connectivity, network size, and other characteristics. Here, we used eco-evolutionary simulations to examine coral adaptation to warming across reef networks in the Caribbean, the Southwest Pacific, and the Coral Triangle. We assessed the factors associated with coral persistence in multiple reef systems to understand which results are general and which are sensitive to particular geographic contexts. We found that evolution can be critical in preventing extinction and facilitating the long-term recovery of coral communities in all regions. Furthermore, the strength of immigration to a reef (destination strength) and current sea surface temperature robustly predicted reef persistence across all reef networks and across temperature projections. However, we found higher initial coral cover, slower recovery, and more evolutionary lag in the Coral Triangle, which has a greater number of reefs and more larval settlement than the other regions. We also found the lowest projected future coral cover in the Caribbean. These findings suggest that coral reef persistence depends on ecology, evolution, and habitat network characteristics, and that, under an emissions stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5), recovery may be possible over multiple centuries.

RevDate: 2021-06-09

Kazmi FA, Shafique F, Hassan MU, et al (2021)

Ecological impacts of climate change on the snow leopard (Panthera unica) in South Asia.

Brazilian journal of biology = Revista brasleira de biologia, 82:e240219 pii:S1519-69842022000100204.

Snow leopard (Panthera unica) is a felid which lives in the highly rugged areas of alpine regions in different mountain ranges of South and Central Asia. This solitary animal needs large spaces for its ranges but due to climate change and relatively faster rate of global warming in South Asian mountain ranges, its habitat is going to shrink and fragment by tree-line shifts and change in hydrology of the area. Vegetative modification of montane flora and competition with domestic goats will create its prey's population to decline along with a chance of a direct conflict and competition with the common leopard. Common leopard being more adaptable, grouped, and larger in size can be a significant stressor for a smaller and solitary snow leopard. Habitat would shrink, and snow leopard can possibly move upslope or northward to central Asian ranges and their predicted migratory patterns are unknown.

RevDate: 2021-06-09

Rodriguez-Delgado C, Bergillos RJ, E Medina-Lopez (2021)

Corrigendum to "Wave energy assessment under climate change through artificial intelligence" [Sci. Total Environ. 760 (2021) 144039].

RevDate: 2021-06-09

Krzanowski J (2021)

The need for biodiversity champions in psychiatry: the entwined crises of climate change and ecological collapse.

BJPsych bulletin pii:S2056469421000449 [Epub ahead of print].

SUMMARY: The past 20 years have seen the disappearance and degradation of biodiversity on earth at unprecedented rates. This phenomenon shares similar drivers to those behind climate change yet requires its own solutions. The twin catastrophes of climate change and biodiversity loss demonstrate how our health is bound up in the vitality of this planet. There has been an increasing effort on the part of healthcare professionals to appreciate this relationship, as evidenced by the growing influence of planetary health as a discipline. However, the health impacts of biodiversity loss have been less focused on than those brought on by climate change. Psychiatry's appreciation of the interface between environments and our health, alongside the evidence for the connection between nature and mental health specifically, prompt psychiatrists to ensure that the institution of healthcare throws its influence equally behind solutions to climate change as well as biodiversity loss.

RevDate: 2021-06-08

Habib R, White K, Hardisty DJ, et al (2021)

Shifting consumer behavior to address climate change.

Current opinion in psychology, 42:108-113 pii:S2352-250X(21)00054-3 [Epub ahead of print].

We review recent articles on how to change consumer behavior in ways that improve climate impacts, with a special focus on those articles using experimental interventions and measuring actual behaviors. We organize the findings using the SHIFT framework to categorize behavior change strategies based on five psychological factors: Social influence (e.g. communicating that others are changing to plant-based diets doubled meatless lunch orders), Habit (e.g. consumer collaboration to establish new, value-based practices helped to reduce food waste), Individual self (e.g. when women made up half of the group, 51% more trees were conserved), Feelings and cognition (e.g. anticipated guilt reduced choice of unethical attributes in made-to-order products), and Tangibility (e.g. concrete representations of the future of recycled products improved recycling behavior).

RevDate: 2021-06-08

Jódar J, Herms I, Lambán LJ, et al (2021)

Isotopic content in high mountain karst aquifers as a proxy for climate change impact in Mediterranean zones: The Port del Comte karst aquifer (SE Pyrenees, Catalonia, Spain).

The Science of the total environment, 790:148036 pii:S0048-9697(21)03107-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The objective of this work is to characterize the impact of climate change in the karst aquifer of the Port del Comte Massif (PCM). Six regional climate models (RCMs) from CLYM'PY Project are used to analyse the magnitude and trends of changes on precipitation and temperature (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and how these changes propagate through the hydrogeological system as groundwater resources availability and the associated water isotopic content. The study uses the RCMs climate change forcings as input data to a combination of (1) a semi-distributed hydrological model for simulating the hydrodynamical response of the aquifer, and (2) a lumped parameter model for simulating the isotopic content in groundwater at the outlet of the aquifer. A mean decrease of 2.6% and 1.9% in yearly precipitation and a mean increase of 1.9 and 3.1 °C in average temperature is expected in PCM at the end of the 21st century in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This climate signal entering the hydrogeological system results in a mean decrease in recharge of 3.9% and 0.5% from rainfall and of 59.3% and 76.1% from snowmelt, and a decrease of 7.6% and 4.5% in total system discharge, but also generates an isotopic enrichment in groundwater discharge (δ18OGW) of 0.50‰ and 0.84‰, respectively. Moreover, from a long-term (2010-2100) perspective, the mean trend in δ18OGW is 0.7‰/100 yr and 1.2‰/100 yr for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, resulting in easily measurable annual lapse rates with the current analytical methods.

RevDate: 2021-06-08

Zahoor B, Liu X, Ahmad B, et al (2021)

Impact of climate change on Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetnaus) and its autumn diet in the northern highlands of Pakistan.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species are at risk of extinction by the end of the 21st century owing to climate change. Range shifts and range contractions in plant species will dramatically affect the distribution of animals relying on them for food and shelter. The negative impacts of climate change on forested landscapes of the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition and distribution. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), a forest-dwelling species, primarily depends on plants for foraging, and is assumed to be affected by climate change in NHP. Scat analyses and indigenous knowledge from Machiara National Park revealed the maximum consumption of Quercus species (natural food) and Zea mays (human grown food) by the Asiatic black bear in autumn season. We collected the occurrence data of the Asiatic black bear and its commonly used food (three Quercus spp.) in the NHP. We used the MaxEnt model to simulate current and future (in 2050 & 2070) distribution of the species under RCP4.5 (medium carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (extreme carbon emission scenario). The results predict range reduction and extreme fragmentation in the habitats of all the Quercus spp. Besides, a dramatic decrease in the suitable (SH) and very highly suitable (HSH) habitats was predicted in the future. Range shift and range reduction of Quercus spp. may interrupt the denning chronology of Asiatic black bears, escalate the human-black bear conflicts and local extirpation of the species. Given the extent and magnitude of climate change, it will likely not be enough to focus solely on the conservation of the Asiatic black bear. We need more dynamic planning aiming at mitigating the effect of climate change in forested landscapes including the Quercus forests.

RevDate: 2021-06-08

Rosbakh S, Hartig F, Sandanov DV, et al (2021)

Siberian plants shift their phenology in response to climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Siberia has undergone dramatic climatic changes due to global warming in recent decades. Yet, the ecological responses to these climatic changes are still poorly understood due to a lack of data. Here, we use a unique dataset from the Russian 'Chronicles of Nature' network to analyse long-term (1976-2018) phenological shifts in leaf out, flowering, fruiting and senescence of 67 common Siberian plant species. We find that Siberian boreal forest plants advanced their early-season (leaf out and flowering) and mid-season (fruiting) by 2.2, 0.7 and 1.6 days/decade, and delayed the onset of senescence by 1.6 days/decade during this period. These mean values, however, are subject to substantial intraspecific variability, which is partly explained by the plants' growth forms. Trees and shrubs advanced leaf out and flowering (-3.1 and -3.3. days/decade) faster than herbs (1 day/decade), presumably due to the more direct exposure of leaf and flower buds to ambient air for the woody vegetation. For senescence, we detected a reverse pattern: stronger delays in herbs (2.1 days/decade) than in woody plants (1.0-1.2 days/decade), presumably due to stronger effects of autumn frosts on the leaves of herbs. Interestingly, the timing of fruiting in all four growth forms advanced at similar paces, from 1.4 days/decade in shrubs to 1.7 days/decade in trees and herbs. Our findings point to a strong, yet heterogeneous, response of Siberian plant phenology to recent global warming. Furthermore, the results highlight that species- and growth form-specific differences among study species could be used to identify plants particularly at risk of decline due to their low adaptive capacity or a loss of synchronization with important interaction partners.

RevDate: 2021-06-08

Thapa S, Li H, Li B, et al (2021)

Impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in a Himalayan basin, Nepal.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 193(7):393.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is one of the major sources of fresh water on Earth and is currently under serious threat of climate change. This study investigates the future water availability in the Langtang basin, Central Himalayas, Nepal under climate change scenarios using state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques. The daily snow area for the region was derived from MODIS images. The outputs of climate models were used to project the temperature and precipitation until 2100. Three ML models, including Gated recurrent unit (GRU), Long short-term memory (LSTM), and Recurrent neural network (RNN), were developed for snowmelt runoff prediction, and their performance was compared based on statistical indicators. The result suggests that the mean temperature of the basin could rise by 4.98 °C by the end of the century. The annual average precipitation in the basin is likely to increase in the future, especially due to high monsoon rainfall, but winter precipitation could decline. The annual river discharge is projected to upsurge significantly due to increased precipitation and snowmelt, and no shift in hydrograph is expected in the future. Among three ML models, the LSTM model performed better than GRU and RNN models. In summary, this study depicts severe future climate change in the region and quantifies its effect on river discharge. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the suitability of the LSTM model in streamflow prediction in the data-scarce HKH region. The outcomes of this study will be useful for water resource managers and planners in developing strategies to harness the positive impacts and offset the negative effects of climate change in the basin.

RevDate: 2021-06-08

Moretti K (2021)

An Education Imperative: Integrating Climate Change Into the Emergency Medicine Curriculum.

AEM education and training, 5(3):e10546 pii:AET210546.

RevDate: 2021-06-07

Estrela-Segrelles C, Gómez-Martinez G, MÁ Pérez-Martín (2021)

Risk assessment of climate change impacts on Mediterranean coastal wetlands. Application in Júcar River Basin District (Spain).

The Science of the total environment, 790:148032 pii:S0048-9697(21)03103-X [Epub ahead of print].

Sea level rise (SLR) produced by climate change affects severely coastal ecosystems which are currently being impacted by sea level rise in many parts of the world. In relation with coastal wetlands, the most relevant induced effect will occur on water and soil's salt content, especially in areas below sea level. This could lead into a reduction of habitat for the wetlands' biota. In this context, this research assesses the SLR related risk in the Júcar River Basin District (JRBD). Hazard, exposure, impact, vulnerability, and risk maps have been elaborated. The design and application of measures is prioritized in those areas classified as Very High risk with the aim of improving coastal ecosystems' climate change adaptation. In Western Mediterranean coast, average sea level (ASL) will rise 0.16 m (2026-2045) and 0.79 m (2081-2100) referred to the reference period (1986-2005). High-end scenarios indicate that ASL will rise 1.35 m-1.92 m (2081-2100). The risk analysis results show that 90% of JRBD area affected by SLR, corresponds to coastal wetlands. Half of the affected area belongs to L'Albufera de Valencia wetland with 32.44 km2 below sea level, which represents a water volume of 42.64 hm3 (2026-2045) and a surface between 72.53 and 138.96 km2 representing from 118.36 to 289.70 hm3 (2081-2100). In the case of L'Albufera de Valencia the impact will be throughout the 21st century, the average rate of SLR will leap from 4 to 11 cm per decade, therefore MSL will reach the current wetland levels by 2040-2045. This makes necessary to modify the lake's management rules, which will lead to an increase of 40 hm3 in water storage and a reduction in water's renewal time compared to current rates (from 15 to 5 times a year).

RevDate: 2021-06-05

Anonymous (2021)

More than one-third of heat deaths blamed on climate change.

RevDate: 2021-06-05

Cabrera López C, Urrutia Landa I, CA Jiménez-Ruiz (2021)

Climate change: SEPAR's responsibilities.

Archivos de bronconeumologia, 57(6):381-382.

RevDate: 2021-06-05

Gautier E, Dépret T, Cavero J, et al (2021)

Fifty-year dynamics of the Lena River islands (Russia): Spatio-temporal pattern of large periglacial anabranching river and influence of climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 783:147020.

The Lena, a large river that drains the northern coldest region of the Northern Hemisphere, is deeply influenced by the continuous permafrost and degradation of the frozen ground has been shown to be the main cause of the marked increase in water discharge. The first objective of this study conducted on the middle Lena was to analyze the island dynamics for the last 50 years (1967 to 2017). Several morphological parameters were surveyed using a GIS on seven series of aerial photographs and satellite images of a 100 km-long reach: island size, eroded and deposited areas, position and morphology of the islands. This approach enabled the identification of evolutionary models. Our second objective was to evaluate the potential impact of ongoing climate change. We analyzed morphological parameters with respect to two main factors: efficient discharge (bar-full, bankfull and flood discharges) and water temperature. A potential erosion index (PEI) was calculated by coupling the duration of discharge exceeding the bar-full level and water temperature. The results identified several morphological changes that occurred at the end of the 20th century: an increase in the number of islands, greater eroded surfaces and accelerated migration of islands. Comparing the dynamics of islands with and without permafrost is a good indicator of their sensitivity to climate change. A major change was observed concerning the erosion and migration of islands with and without permafrost. This evolution seems to be linked both with the duration of the discharge that exceeds the bar-full level and with the number of flood peaks. The water temperature in May and August have a major influence on permafrost islands that become increasingly destabilized. Thus, as large rivers are assumed to slowly react to climate change, the recent changes in the Lena River prove that the global change deeply impacts periglacial rivers.

RevDate: 2021-06-05

Stankovic M, Ambo-Rappe R, Carly F, et al (2021)

Quantification of blue carbon in seagrass ecosystems of Southeast Asia and their potential for climate change mitigation.

The Science of the total environment, 783:146858.

Seagrasses have the ability to contribute towards climate change mitigation, through large organic carbon (Corg) sinks within their ecosystems. Although the importance of blue carbon within these ecosystems has been addressed in some countries of Southeast Asia, the regional and national inventories with the application of nature-based solutions are lacking. In this study, we aim to estimate national coastal blue carbon stocks in the seagrass ecosystems in the countries of Southeast Asia including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India. This study further assesses the potential of conservation and restoration practices and highlights the seagrass meadows as nature-based solution for climate change mitigation. The average value of the total carbon storage within seagrass meadows of this region is 121.95 ± 76.11 Mg ha-1 (average ± SD) and the total Corg stock of the seagrass meadows of this region was 429.11 ± 111.88 Tg, with the highest Corg stock in the Philippines (78%). The seagrass meadows of this region have the capacity to accumulate 5.85-6.80 Tg C year-1, which accounts for $214.6-249.4 million USD. Under the current rate of decline of 2.82%, the seagrass meadows are emitting 1.65-2.08 Tg of CO2 year-1 and the economic value of these losses accounts for $21.42-24.96 million USD. The potential of the seagrass meadows to the offset current CO2 emissions varies across the region, with the highest contribution to offset is in the seagrass meadows of the Philippines (11.71%). Current national policies and commitments of nationally determined contributions do not include blue carbon ecosystems as climate mitigation measures, even though these ecosystems can contribute up to 7.03% of the countries' reduction goal of CO2 emissions by 2030. The results of this study highlight and promote the potential of the southeast Asian seagrass meadows to national and international agencies as a practical scheme for nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation.

RevDate: 2021-06-04

Gourevitch JD, Koliba C, Rizzo DM, et al (2021)

Quantifying the social benefits and costs of reducing phosphorus pollution under climate change.

Journal of environmental management, 293:112838 pii:S0301-4797(21)00900-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Excess phosphorus loading to waterbodies has led to increasing frequency and severity of harmful algal blooms, negatively impacting economic activity and human health. While interventions to improve water quality can create large societal benefits, these investments are costly and the value of benefits is often unknown. Understanding the social and economic impacts of reduced phosphorus loading is critical for developing effective land use policies and for generating public and political support for these initiatives. Here, we quantify the social benefits and costs of improving water quality in Lake Champlain under a range of phosphorus reduction and climate change scenarios between 2016 and 2050. We use statistical models to link water quality outputs from an established integrated assessment model with three categories of benefits: tourism expenditures, property sales, and avoided human health impacts. We estimate the costs of reducing phosphorus loading using data reported by the State of Vermont. We find that under the most aggressive phosphorus reduction scenario, the total benefits of improved water quality are $55 to $60 million between 2016 and 2050. Over this 35 year time horizon, the combined benefits do not outweigh the costs under any scenario. If the time horizon is extended to 2100 or beyond, however, the benefits may exceed the costs if the applied discount rate is less than 3%. Importantly, we almost certainly underestimate the value of clean water, due to the omission of other types of benefits. Despite this uncertainty, our study provides a tractable framework for disentangling the complex relationships between water quality and human well-being, and illuminates the value of reductions in phosphorus loading to society.

RevDate: 2021-06-04

Iglesias A, Garrote L, Bardají I, et al (2021)

Looking into individual choices and local realities to define adaptation options to drought and climate change.

Journal of environmental management, 293:112861 pii:S0301-4797(21)00923-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change adaptation choices defined by local communities reflect individual risk perception and contextual factors. This study examines how local contextual environmental factors contribute to individual choices for adapting to water scarcity in three locations in central Spain. The study evaluates citizens' choices by audience segmentation and explore the role of geographical location in segments' engagement with adaptation and adaptation measure preference. The results of the analysis of the effect of local experience support the findings of other studies that suggest that local experience is linked to risk perception but does not necessarily drive adaptive behaviour. The results suggest that respondents from most degraded areas show a higher local risk perception, but do not show homogeneous commitment to adaptation. The results also indicate differences over adaptation measure preferences across locations. Respondents of less degraded areas have a lower risk perception and show individualistic responses as compared to respondents in water stressed communities. These results highlight the relevance of local experience-driven risk perception in support to adaptation actions. Spain exemplifies many countries in southern Europe and North Africa, where drought is already a challenge to society and it is affecting an increasing number of people.

RevDate: 2021-06-04

Begum A, SA Hamid (2021)

Impoverishment impact of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in rural Bangladesh: Do the regions facing different climate change risks matter?.

PloS one, 16(6):e0252706 pii:PONE-D-21-03471.

INTRODUCTION: Out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for healthcare severely affect the current consumption, future health and earnings capacity of poor/underprivileged households and hence it is crucial for priority setting. This study assesses the variation in overall as well as disease-specific impoverishment impact of OOP payments between the regions experiencing different climate change risks, defined as high disaster-prone (HDP) areas and low-disaster-prone (LDP) areas, in Bangladesh.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This paper estimated three poverty measures, such as poverty headcount, poverty intensity and normalized poverty gap for all ailments, catastrophic events, diseases types (communicable, non-communicable (NCDs), and accident and injury), illness conditions (acute and chronic) and hospitalization using 3,791 randomly selected rural households (1,203 from HDP and 2,588 from LDP areas) across the regions. Cost of basic need approach was used for estimating poverty line expenditure.

RESULTS: About 13 percent households annually fall into poverty due to OOP outlays for healthcare. Despite having significantly (p-value≤0.01) less OOP payments (HDP areas: BDT 5,117; LDP areas: BDT5,811) the impoverishment impact of OOP payments for healthcare in HDP areas (16.5%) has substantially higher than LDP areas (11.3%). Population in HDP areas, especially char (river island; 19.55 percent) and haor (water submerged; 16.80 percent) are more susceptible to any level of OOP payments due to low level of earnings. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure (61.79%) and NCDs (14.29 percent) are exacerbating the poverty level in Bangladesh. Both absolute and relative average poverty gap are more widen in HDP than LDP areas due to catastrophic OOP outlays for healthcare.

CONCLUSION: The impoverishment effect due to OOP payments for healthcare in both HDP and LDP areas are high, especially for NCDs and catastrophic healthcare expenditure. However, the situation is bit worse in HDP areas. Preventing the escalation of NCDs as well as catastrophic expenditure and hence reducing the level of impoverishment thereof call for restricting tobacco use, increasing physical activity, encouraging to intake healthy diets, ensuring food safety, controlling air pollution, and improving mental health. Moreover, government should give more emphasis, especially in the HDP areas, on making community clinics more functional through providing screening equipment and training to the Community Health Care Providers for early detection of NCDs, and ensuring availability of medicine all the time. Note that other than community clinics, there is little option for providing healthcare in HDP areas due to poor functionality of public facilities as well as lack of private facilities in HDP areas.

RevDate: 2021-06-03

Tabucanon AS, Kurisu K, K Hanaki (2021)

Assessment and mitigation of tangible flood damages driven by climate change in a tropical city: Hat Yai Municipality, southern Thailand.

The Science of the total environment, 789:147983 pii:S0048-9697(21)03054-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change-induced floods in tropical urban areas have presented a serious global challenge because of failed conventional stormwater management practices. This research aims to develop a comprehensive methodological framework for flood damage estimation and mitigation, particularly in a tropical urban city. In this study, interdisciplinary fields were integrated through statistical downscaling, hydrologic-hydraulic modeling, and the development of flood damage curves. Relationships between tangible flood damage and flood-borne outbreak with flood depths were elucidated to predict future damage. Various flood mitigation strategies were evaluated. Herein, Hat Yai Municipality in Southern Thailand was selected as the study area. The flood simulation was conducted for 2010 and the highest flood damage sensitivity was exhibited by non-commercial buildings due to significant commercial stock damage, which was followed by that observed for detached houses. There was a strong linear relationship between the number of patients infected with leptospirosis and flood depth (R2 = 0.85). For climate change studies, flood maps for storms with 20-, 50-, and 100-year return periods under the A2/RCP8.5 scenario were generated using hydrological-hydraulic 1D/2D model; these maps were applied with the developed flood damage curves for damage estimation. It was found that reducing flood damage by implementing agroforestry and expanding the main bypass channel provides comparable damage reductions of -25.5% and - 27.5%, respectively, under the worst-case scenario of a 100-year return period in 2040-2059. Therefore, to deal with uncertain climate change situations, the incorporation of structural and non-structural measures is recommended. Such a combination when coupled with an eight-hour flood awareness time can result in a damage reduction of -59.9%. A flood warning system was in high demand by residents in the area; however, damage reduction from this measure alone was not high (approximately -17.0%) when compared to that obtained with other measures; consequently, additional measures were needed.

RevDate: 2021-06-03

Hristov J, Barreiro-Hurle J, Salputra G, et al (2021)

Reuse of treated water in European agriculture: Potential to address water scarcity under climate change.

Agricultural water management, 251:106872.

The use of reclaimed or treated water from urban wastewater treatment plants for irrigation has been proposed as an alternative water source to address water scarcity issues in Europe. In this paper using agro-economic modelling, we analyse if treated water available for agriculture has the potential to reduce freshwater abstraction and, consequently, water stress. Implementing exogenous treated water quantities as an additional water supply at NUTS 2 level in the CAPRI model, we found that treated water reuse is a possible alternative supply source to address water shortages with a very negligible effect on farmers' income and food production in the EU. However, the actual water reuse and water stress reduction is very limited due to high costs. Even climate change effects on water availability and precipitation failed to induce higher use. The one-size-fits-all approach modelled via a flat rate water price only encourages the reuse of treated water in a limited number of EU member states. Thus, in order to maximise the potential of reused water to address water scarcity, different rates should be used so as to ensure higher treated water volumes at lower costs.

RevDate: 2021-06-03

Laspiur A, Santos JC, Medina SM, et al (2021)

Vulnerability to climate change of a microendemic lizard species from the central Andes.

Scientific reports, 11(1):11653.

Given the rapid loss of biodiversity as consequence of climate change, greater knowledge of ecophysiological and natural history traits are crucial to determine which environmental factors induce stress and drive the decline of threatened species. Liolaemus montanezi (Liolaemidae), a xeric-adapted lizard occurring only in a small geographic range in west-central Argentina, constitutes an excellent model for studies on the threats of climate change on such microendemic species. We describe field data on activity patterns, use of microhabitat, behavioral thermoregulation, and physiology to produce species distribution models (SDMs) based on climate and ecophysiological data. Liolaemus montanezi inhabits a thermally harsh environment which remarkably impacts their activity and thermoregulation. The species shows a daily bimodal pattern of activity and mostly occupies shaded microenvironments. Although the individuals thermoregulate at body temperatures below their thermal preference they avoid high-temperature microenvironments probably to avoid overheating. The population currently persists because of the important role of the habitat physiognomy and not because of niche tracking, seemingly prevented by major rivers that form boundaries of their geographic range. We found evidence of habitat opportunities in the current range and adjacent areas that will likely remain suitable to the year 2070, reinforcing the relevance of the river floodplain for the species' avoidance of extinction.

RevDate: 2021-06-03

Anonymous (2021)

Dynamic WHO dashboard for island states highlights barriers and progress on climate change and health.

Saudi medical journal, 42(6):702-703.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Ben Mariem S, Soba D, Zhou B, et al (2021)

Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Grain Quality of C3 Cereals: A Meta-Analysis of [CO2], Temperature, and Drought Effects.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 10(6): pii:plants10061052.

Cereal yield and grain quality may be impaired by environmental factors associated with climate change. Major factors, including elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]), elevated temperature, and drought stress, have been identified as affecting C3 crop production and quality. A meta-analysis of existing literature was performed to study the impact of these three environmental factors on the yield and nutritional traits of C3 cereals. Elevated [CO2] stimulates grain production (through larger grain numbers) and starch accumulation but negatively affects nutritional traits such as protein and mineral content. In contrast to [CO2], increased temperature and drought cause significant grain yield loss, with stronger effects observed from the latter. Elevated temperature decreases grain yield by decreasing the thousand grain weight (TGW). Nutritional quality is also negatively influenced by the changing climate, which will impact human health. Similar to drought, heat stress decreases starch content but increases grain protein and mineral concentrations. Despite the positive effect of elevated [CO2], increases to grain yield seem to be counterbalanced by heat and drought stress. Regarding grain nutritional value and within the three environmental factors, the increase in [CO2] is possibly the more detrimental to face because it will affect cereal quality independently of the region.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Pepi M, S Focardi (2021)

Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria in Aquaculture and Climate Change: A Challenge for Health in the Mediterranean Area.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(11): pii:ijerph18115723.

Aquaculture is the productive activity that will play a crucial role in the challenges of the millennium, such as the need for proteins that support humans and the respect for the environment. Aquaculture is an important economic activity in the Mediterranean basin. A great impact is presented, however, by aquaculture practices as they involve the use of antibiotics for treatment and prophylaxis. As a consequence of the use of antibiotics in aquaculture, antibiotic resistance is induced in the surrounding bacteria in the column water, sediment, and fish-associated bacterial strains. Through horizontal gene transfer, bacteria can diffuse antibiotic-resistance genes and mobile resistance genes further spreading genetic determinants. Once triggered, antibiotic resistance easily spreads among aquatic microbial communities and, from there, can reach human pathogenic bacteria, making vain the use of antibiotics for human health. Climate change claims a significant role in this context, as rising temperatures can affect cell physiology in bacteria in the same way as antibiotics, causing antibiotic resistance to begin with. The Mediterranean Sea represents a 'hot spot' in terms of climate change and aspects of antibiotic resistance in aquaculture in this area can be significantly amplified, thus increasing threats to human health. Practices must be adopted to counteract negative impacts on human health, with a reduction in the use of antibiotics as a pivotal point. In the meantime, it is necessary to act against climate change by reducing anthropogenic impacts, for example by reducing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. The One Health type approach, which involves the intervention of different skills, such as veterinary, ecology, and medicine in compliance with the principles of sustainability, is necessary and strongly recommended to face these important challenges for human and animal health, and for environmental safety in the Mediterranean area.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Zenda T, Liu S, Dong A, et al (2021)

Advances in Cereal Crop Genomics for Resilience under Climate Change.

Life (Basel, Switzerland), 11(6): pii:life11060502.

Adapting to climate change, providing sufficient human food and nutritional needs, and securing sufficient energy supplies will call for a radical transformation from the current conventional adaptation approaches to more broad-based and transformative alternatives. This entails diversifying the agricultural system and boosting productivity of major cereal crops through development of climate-resilient cultivars that can sustainably maintain higher yields under climate change conditions, expanding our focus to crop wild relatives, and better exploitation of underutilized crop species. This is facilitated by the recent developments in plant genomics, such as advances in genome sequencing, assembly, and annotation, as well as gene editing technologies, which have increased the availability of high-quality reference genomes for various model and non-model plant species. This has necessitated genomics-assisted breeding of crops, including underutilized species, consequently broadening genetic variation of the available germplasm; improving the discovery of novel alleles controlling important agronomic traits; and enhancing creation of new crop cultivars with improved tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses and superior nutritive quality. Here, therefore, we summarize these recent developments in plant genomics and their application, with particular reference to cereal crops (including underutilized species). Particularly, we discuss genome sequencing approaches, quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping and genome-wide association (GWAS) studies, directed mutagenesis, plant non-coding RNAs, precise gene editing technologies such as CRISPR-Cas9, and complementation of crop genotyping by crop phenotyping. We then conclude by providing an outlook that, as we step into the future, high-throughput phenotyping, pan-genomics, transposable elements analysis, and machine learning hold much promise for crop improvements related to climate resilience and nutritional superiority.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Bezgrebelna M, McKenzie K, Wells S, et al (2021)

Climate Change, Weather, Housing Precarity, and Homelessness: A Systematic Review of Reviews.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(11): pii:ijerph18115812.

This systematic review of reviews was conducted to examine housing precarity and homelessness in relation to climate change and weather extremes internationally. In a thematic analysis of 15 reviews (5 systematic and 10 non-systematic), the following themes emerged: risk factors for homelessness/housing precarity, temperature extremes, health concerns, structural factors, natural disasters, and housing. First, an increased risk of homelessness has been found for people who are vulnerably housed and populations in lower socio-economic positions due to energy insecurity and climate change-induced natural hazards. Second, homeless/vulnerably-housed populations are disproportionately exposed to climatic events (temperature extremes and natural disasters). Third, the physical and mental health of homeless/vulnerably-housed populations is projected to be impacted by weather extremes and climate change. Fourth, while green infrastructure may have positive effects for homeless/vulnerably-housed populations, housing remains a major concern in urban environments. Finally, structural changes must be implemented. Recommendations for addressing the impact of climate change on homelessness and housing precarity were generated, including interventions focusing on homelessness/housing precarity and reducing the effects of weather extremes, improved housing and urban planning, and further research on homelessness/housing precarity and climate change. To further enhance the impact of these initiatives, we suggest employing the Human Rights-Based Approach (HRBA).

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Baazeem A, Rodriguez A, Medina A, et al (2021)

Impacts of Climate Change Interacting Abiotic Factors on Growth, aflD and aflR Gene Expression and Aflatoxin B1 Production by Aspergillus flavus Strains In Vitro and on Pistachio Nuts.

Toxins, 13(6): pii:toxins13060385.

Pistachio nuts are an important economic tree nut crop which is used directly or processed for many food-related activities. They can become colonized by mycotoxigenic spoilage fungi, especially Aspergillus flavus, mainly resulting in contamination with aflatoxins (AFs), especially aflatoxin B1 (AFB1). The prevailing climate in which these crops are grown changes as temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels increase, and episodes of extreme wet/dry cycles occur due to human industrial activity. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of interacting Climate Change (CC)-related abiotic factors of temperature (35 vs. 37 °C), CO2 (400 vs. 1000 ppm), and water stress (0.98-0.93 water activity, aw) on (a) growth (b) aflD and aflR biosynthetic gene expression and (c) AFB1 production by two strains A. flavus (AB3, AB10) in vitro on milled pistachio-based media and when colonizing layers of shelled raw pistachio nuts. The A. flavus strains were resilient in terms of growth on pistachio-based media and the colonisation of pistachio nuts with no significant difference when exposed to the interacting three-way climate-related abiotic factors. However, in vitro studies showed that AFB1 production was significantly stimulated (p < 0.05), especially when exposed to 1000 ppm CO2 at 0.98-0.95 aw and 35 °C, and sometimes in the 37 °C treatment group at 0.98 aw. The relative expression of the structural aflD gene involved in AFB1 biosynthesis was decreased or only slightly increased, relative to the control conditions at elevated CO, regardless of the aw level examined. For the regulatory aflR gene expression, there was a significant (p < 0.05) increase in 1000 ppm CO2 and 37 °C for both strains, especially at 0.95 aw. The in situ colonization of pistachio nuts resulted in a significant (p < 0.05) stimulation of AFB1 production at 35 °C and 1000 ppm CO2 for both strains, especially at 0.98 aw. At 37 °C, AFB1 production was either decreased, in strain AB3, or remained similar, as in strain AB10, when exposed to 1000 ppm CO2. This suggests that CC factors may have a differential effect, depending on the interacting conditions of temperature, exposure to CO2 and the level of water stress on AFB1 production.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Ligsay A, Telle O, R Paul (2021)

Challenges to Mitigating the Urban Health Burden of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in the Face of Climate Change.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(9): pii:ijerph18095035.

Cities worldwide are facing ever-increasing pressure to develop mitigation strategies for all sectors to deal with the impacts of climate change. Cities are expected to house 70% of the world's population by 2050, and developing related resilient health systems is a significant challenge. Because of their physical nature, cities' surface temperatures are often substantially higher than that of the surrounding rural areas, generating the so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Whilst considerable emphasis has been placed on strategies to mitigate against the UHI-associated negative health effects of heat and pollution in cities, mosquito-borne diseases have largely been ignored. However, the World Health Organization estimates that one of the main consequences of global warming will be an increased burden of mosquito-borne diseases, many of which have an urban facet to their epidemiology and thus the global population exposed to these pathogens will steadily increase. Current health mitigation strategies for heat and pollution, for example, may, however, be detrimental for mosquito-borne diseases. Implementation of multi-sectoral strategies that can benefit many sectors (such as water, labor, and health) do exist or can be envisaged and would enable optimal use of the meagre resources available. Discussion among multi-sectoral stakeholders should be actively encouraged.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Sorgho R, Jungmann M, Souares A, et al (2021)

Climate Change, Health Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Burkina Faso: A Qualitative Study on the Perceptions of National Policymakers.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(9): pii:ijerph18094972.

Climate change (CC) constitutes one of the greatest threats to human health, and requires political awareness for effective and efficient adaptation planning. This study identified the perceptions of climate change and health adaptation (CC&H) among relevant stakeholders, decision-makers, and policymakers (SDPs) in Burkina Faso (BF) by determining their perceptions of CC, of related health risks and vulnerabilities, and of CC impacts on agriculture and food security. We carried out 35 semi-structured, qualitative in-depth interviews with SDPs, representing national governmental institutions, international organizations, and civil society organizations. The interviews were analyzed using content analysis. SDPs shared similar perceptions of CC and concurred with three ideas (1) CC is a real and lived experience in BF; (2) the population is aware of climatic changes in their environment; (3) CC is intertwined with the agricultural and economic development of the country. SDPs identified biodiversity loss, floods, droughts, and extreme heat as posing the highest risk to health. They elaborated five exposure pathways that are and will be affected by CC: water quality and quantity, heat stress, food supply and safety, vector borne diseases, and air quality. In conclusion, SDPs in Burkina Faso are highly aware of CC hazards, relevant health exposure pathways, and their corresponding health outcomes. Mental health and the interplay between social factors and complex health risks constitute perception gaps. SDPs perceived CC&H risks and vulnerabilities align with current evidence.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Skendžić S, Zovko M, Živković IP, et al (2021)

The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Insect Pests.

Insects, 12(5): pii:insects12050440.

Climate change and global warming are of great concern to agriculture worldwide and are among the most discussed issues in today's society. Climate parameters such as increased temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and changing precipitation patterns have significant impacts on agricultural production and on agricultural insect pests. Changes in climate can affect insect pests in several ways. They can result in an expansion of their geographic distribution, increased survival during overwintering, increased number of generations, altered synchrony between plants and pests, altered interspecific interaction, increased risk of invasion by migratory pests, increased incidence of insect-transmitted plant diseases, and reduced effectiveness of biological control, especially natural enemies. As a result, there is a serious risk of crop economic losses, as well as a challenge to human food security. As a major driver of pest population dynamics, climate change will require adaptive management strategies to deal with the changing status of pests. Several priorities can be identified for future research on the effects of climatic changes on agricultural insect pests. These include modified integrated pest management tactics, monitoring climate and pest populations, and the use of modelling prediction tools.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Cane J (2021)

Global Warming, Advancing Bloom and Evidence for Pollinator Plasticity from Long-Term Bee Emergence Monitoring.

Insects, 12(5): pii:insects12050457.

Global warming is extending growing seasons in temperate zones, yielding earlier wildflower blooms. Short-term field experiments with non-social bees showed that adult emergence is responsive to nest substrate temperatures. Nonetheless, some posit that global warming will decouple bee flight and host bloom periods, leading to pollination shortfalls and bee declines. Resolving these competing scenarios requires evidence for bees' natural plasticity in their annual emergence schedules. This study reports direct observations spanning 12-24 years for annual variation in the earliest nesting or foraging activities by 1-4 populations of four native ground-nesting bees: Andrena fulva (Andrenidae), Halictus rubicundus (Halictidae), Habropoda laboriosa and Eucera (Peponapis) pruinosa (Apidae). Calendar dates of earliest annual bee activity ranged across 25 to 45 days, approximating reported multi-decadal ranges for published wildflower bloom dates. Within a given year, the bee H. rubicundus emerged in close synchrony at multiple local aggregations, explicable if meteorological factors cue emergence. Emergence dates were relatable to thermal cues, such as degree day accumulation, soil temperature at nesting depth, and the first pulse of warm spring air temperatures. Similar seasonal flexibilities in bee emergence and wildflower bloom schedules bodes well for bees and bloom to generally retain synchrony despite a warming climate. Future monitoring studies can benefit from several simple methodological improvements.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Cortés AJ, F López-Hernández (2021)

Harnessing Crop Wild Diversity for Climate Change Adaptation.

Genes, 12(5): pii:genes12050783.

Warming and drought are reducing global crop production with a potential to substantially worsen global malnutrition. As with the green revolution in the last century, plant genetics may offer concrete opportunities to increase yield and crop adaptability. However, the rate at which the threat is happening requires powering new strategies in order to meet the global food demand. In this review, we highlight major recent 'big data' developments from both empirical and theoretical genomics that may speed up the identification, conservation, and breeding of exotic and elite crop varieties with the potential to feed humans. We first emphasize the major bottlenecks to capture and utilize novel sources of variation in abiotic stress (i.e., heat and drought) tolerance. We argue that adaptation of crop wild relatives to dry environments could be informative on how plant phenotypes may react to a drier climate because natural selection has already tested more options than humans ever will. Because isolated pockets of cryptic diversity may still persist in remote semi-arid regions, we encourage new habitat-based population-guided collections for genebanks. We continue discussing how to systematically study abiotic stress tolerance in these crop collections of wild and landraces using geo-referencing and extensive environmental data. By uncovering the genes that underlie the tolerance adaptive trait, natural variation has the potential to be introgressed into elite cultivars. However, unlocking adaptive genetic variation hidden in related wild species and early landraces remains a major challenge for complex traits that, as abiotic stress tolerance, are polygenic (i.e., regulated by many low-effect genes). Therefore, we finish prospecting modern analytical approaches that will serve to overcome this issue. Concretely, genomic prediction, machine learning, and multi-trait gene editing, all offer innovative alternatives to speed up more accurate pre- and breeding efforts toward the increase in crop adaptability and yield, while matching future global food demands in the face of increased heat and drought. In order for these 'big data' approaches to succeed, we advocate for a trans-disciplinary approach with open-source data and long-term funding. The recent developments and perspectives discussed throughout this review ultimately aim to contribute to increased crop adaptability and yield in the face of heat waves and drought events.

RevDate: 2021-06-02

Sirgedaitė-Šėžienė V, Marčiulynas A, V Baliuckas (2021)

Effect of Extracts from Dominant Forest Floor Species of Clear-Cuts on the Regeneration and Initial Growth of Pinus sylvestris L. with Respect to Climate Change.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 10(5): pii:plants10050916.

Climate change influences the ecological environment and affects the recruitment of plants, in addition to population dynamics, including Scots pine regeneration processes. Therefore, the impact of cover-dominant species extracts on the germination of pine seeds and morpho-physiological traits of seedling under different environmental conditions was evaluated. Increasing temperature reinforces the plant-donor allelochemical effect, reduces Scots pine seed germination, and inhibits seedling morpho-physiological parameters. Conditions unfavourable for the seed germination rate were observed in response to the effect of aqueous extracts of 2-year-old Vaccinium vitis-ideae and 1-year-old Calluna vulgaris under changing environmental conditions.&nbsp;The lowest radicle length and hypocotyl growth were observed in response to the effect of 1-year-old C. vulgaris and 2-year-old Rumex acetosella under increasing temperature (+4 °C) conditions. The chlorophyll a + b concentration in control seedlings strongly decreased from 0.76 to 0.66 mg g-1 (due to current environmental and&nbsp;changing environmental conditions). These factors may reduce the resistance of Scots pine to the effects of dominant species and affect the migration of Scots pine habitats to more favourable environmental conditions.

RevDate: 2021-06-01

Tome J, Richmond HL, Rahman M, et al (2021)

Climate change and health vulnerability in Nepal: A systematic review of the literature since 2010.

Global public health [Epub ahead of print].

The Nepali population is among those most vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. We conducted a systematic literature review to document the health effects of climate change in Nepal and identify knowledge gaps by examining vulnerability categories related to health. Three databases were searched for journal articles that addressed health and vulnerability related to climate change in Nepal from 2010 onwards. Of the 1063 articles identified, 37 were eligible for inclusion. The findings suggested the health of the population was affected mostly by food insecurity, floods, droughts, and reduced water levels. Studies revealed both morbidity and mortality increased due to climate change, with the most impacted populations being women, children, and the elderly. At greatest risk for impacts from climate change were those from poor and marginal populations, especially impoverished women. The public health sector, healthcare, and potable water sources were some of the least mentioned vulnerability subcategories, indicating more research is needed to better understand their adaptation capacities. We propose that identifying vulnerabilities and areas of limited research are critical steps in the prioritization of health policy and interventions for the most vulnerable populations in Nepal.

RevDate: 2021-06-01

Liu J, Zou HX, Bachelot B, et al (2021)

Predicting the responses of subalpine forest landscape dynamics to climate change on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Subalpine vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau is globally one of the most sensitive to climate change. However, the potential landscape-scale effects of climate change on subalpine forest dynamics remain largely unexplored. Here, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) to simulate forest dynamics under future climate change in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in the southeastern subalpine region of the Tibetan Plateau. We examined changes in the composition, distribution and aboveground biomass of cold temperate coniferous forests, temperate coniferous forests, deciduous broad-leaved forests and redwood forest under four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the current climate) from 2016 to 2096. Our model predicts that by 2096, (i) cold temperate coniferous forests will expand and increase by 7.92%, 8.18%, 8.65% and 7.02% under current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; (ii) distribution of forests as a whole show upward elevational range shift, especially under RCP8.5 scenario; (iii) total aboveground biomass slowly increases at first and then decreases to 12-16% of current distribution under RCPs. These results show that climate change can be expected to significantly influence forest composition, distribution and aboveground biomass in the subalpine forests of southeastern Tibetan Plateau. This study is the first to simulate forest dynamics at the landscape scale in subalpine areas of the Tibetan Plateau, which provides an important step in developing more effective strategies of forest management for expected climate change, not only in China but also around the world.

RevDate: 2021-06-01

Tong SL, Olsen J, PL Kinney (2021)

Climate Change and Temperature-related Mortality: Implications for Health-related Climate Policy.

Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES, 34(5):379-386.

RevDate: 2021-05-31

Liu Y, Zhang J, Pan T, et al (2021)

Assessing the adaptability of maize phenology to climate change: The role of anthropogenic-management practices.

Journal of environmental management, 293:112874 pii:S0301-4797(21)00936-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Phenology has been regarded as an essential bio-indicator of climate change widely. Quantifying the crop phenological changes caused by climate change and anthropogenic-management practices can help formulate effective climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, the effects of climate change and anthropogenic-management practices on maize phenology (spring, summer, and intercropping maize) in China were distinguished based on historical meteorological and phenological data (1981-2010) of 114 stations using the first-order difference regression method. Our results show: (1) The vegetative growing period of spring and intercropping maize was extended, whereas that of summer maize was shortened. The reproductive growing periods of spring, summer, and intercropping maize were extended. (2) Isolated impacts of climate change shortened the vegetative growing period of spring maize, summer maize, and intercropping maize by 0.19, 1.06, and 3.12 d decade-1, respectively, while the reproductive growing period was extended by 0.19, 0.74, and 3.47 d decade-1, respectively. (3) The contribution of temperature to maize phenology was greater in the northwest inland maize zone and north spring maize zone than in other regions, whereas the contribution of sunshine hours was higher in Huang-Huai Plain intercropping maize zone and the southwest mountain hills maize zone. (4) The effects of anthropogenic-management practices on maize phenological stages such as sowing, emergence, and maturity were generally greater than that of climate change, which has delayed the phenological stages of summer and intercropping maize and extended the growing period of spring maize. The focus should be paid to the emergence, jointing, and milky stages to increase the water use efficiency in the northwest inland maize zone. The findings provide a scientific basis for improving the adaptability of agricultural systems in climate change.

RevDate: 2021-05-31

Hill GM, Kawahara AY, Daniels JC, et al (2021)

Climate change effects on animal ecology: butterflies and moths as a case study.

Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society [Epub ahead of print].

Butterflies and moths (Lepidoptera) are one of the most studied, diverse, and widespread animal groups, making them an ideal model for climate change research. They are a particularly informative model for studying the effects of climate change on species ecology because they are ectotherms that thermoregulate with a suite of physiological, behavioural, and phenotypic traits. While some species have been negatively impacted by climatic disturbances, others have prospered, largely in accordance with their diversity in life-history traits. Here we take advantage of a large repertoire of studies on butterflies and moths to provide a review of the many ways in which climate change is impacting insects, animals, and ecosystems. By studying these climate-based impacts on ecological processes of Lepidoptera, we propose appropriate strategies for species conservation and habitat management broadly across animals.

RevDate: 2021-05-31

Kummu M, Heino M, Taka M, et al (2021)

Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space.

One earth (Cambridge, Mass.), 4(5):720-729.

Food production on our planet is dominantly based on agricultural practices developed during stable Holocene climatic conditions. Although it is widely accepted that climate change perturbs these conditions, no systematic understanding exists on where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. Here, we address this gap by introducing the concept of safe climatic space (SCS), which incorporates the decisive climatic factors of agricultural production: precipitation, temperature, and aridity. We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5-8.5) could force 31% of the global food crop and 34% of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081-2100. The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa's Sudano-Sahelian Zone, which have low resilience to cope with these changes. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction.

RevDate: 2021-05-31

Nyahunda L, Chibvura S, HM Tirivangasi (2021)

Social Work Practice: Accounting for Double Injustices Experienced by Women Under the Confluence of Covid-19 Pandemic and Climate Change Impacts in Nyanga, Zimbabwe.

Journal of human rights and social work pii:170 [Epub ahead of print].

In this paper, the researchers argue that the repercussions of the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic are taking a toll on rural women, not as a new phenomenon, but as an amplifier for their historical calamities dovetailed by climate change. The declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic by the World Health Organisation ignited widespread pronouncements of national state of disasters in various countries around the globe including Zimbabwe. Subsequently, like other countries, Zimbabwe followed the precautionary measures outlined by the WHO and pronounced its national lockdown to curtail the transmission of the virus. This paper intends to demonstrate how convergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change impacts serves as a double injustice for rural women in Nyanga communities, Zimbabwe. The study was qualitative in nature guided by the descriptive research design. Twenty participants comprising rural women and social workers were selected using purposive and convenience sampling techniques. Data were collected using focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The Thematic Content Analysis was followed to analyse the data from which the findings were derived. This study established that the COVID-19 pandemic is enhancing the catastrophic implications created by climate change on rural women whose food security systems are shattered, livelihood strategies maimed, caregiving roles burgeoning, and access to healthcare systems compromised. This daunting double impact is aggravated by gender inequalities, social exclusion and patriarchal dominance. The centrality of social justice to social work connotes that the profession has a tendentious responsibility to stand in the gap and liberate women from the jaws of these double catastrophes (climate change and COVID-19).

RevDate: 2021-05-30

Mackay CML, Schmitt MT, Lutz AE, et al (2021)

Recent developments in the social identity approach to the psychology of climate change.

Current opinion in psychology, 42:95-101 pii:S2352-250X(21)00056-7 [Epub ahead of print].

We review recent literature on the social psychology of climate change, focusing on the application of social identity theory and self-categorization theory. These two theories, together forming the social identity approach, point to ways in which collective identities influence responses to climate change. Recent research demonstrates that collective identities influence attitudes, beliefs and behavior relevant to climate change, and they do this through processes such as group norms and social influence, collective efficacy, and collective emotions. The SIA suggests that, in general, people are motivated to protect the identity and status of their ingroups. Indeed, recent studies find that groups who are of higher status, and thus have more to gain from protecting the status quo, tend to be less concerned about addressing climate change than lower status groups, who are more likely to be harmed by climate change. However, individuals from both high and low status groups will be more likely to work towards pro-environmental social change when they perceive current social systems that perpetuate climate change as illegitimate and when they can imagine cognitive alternatives to the status quo, where humans have a more sustainable relationship with nature.

RevDate: 2021-05-30

Douglas BD, M Brauer (2021)

Gamification to prevent climate change: a review of games and apps for sustainability.

Current opinion in psychology, 42:89-94 pii:S2352-250X(21)00055-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Gamification, the application of game design principles to a nongaming context, has been used to promote pro-environmental behaviors. Such principles have been implemented in board games, team competitions, electronic games, smartphone apps, and in apps that researchers developed primarily to collect data. We review the games and apps that have been evaluated in empirical research in the last 5 years and provide a list of apps and games that have yet to be tested. Gamification has been used for sustainability education, energy reduction, transportation, air quality, waste management, and water conservation. Although we do not know yet why certain games and apps are more effective than others, gamification appears to be a promising avenue for preventing climate change.

RevDate: 2021-05-28

Guo H, Zhao Y, Damgaard A, et al (2021)

Quantifying global warming potential of alternative biorefinery systems for producing fuels from Chinese food waste.

Waste management (New York, N.Y.), 130:38-47 pii:S0956-053X(21)00264-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Biorefining of Chinese food waste (FW) into transport fuels was assessed in terms of amount of fuel produced and over all Global Warming Potential (GWP) for six different scenarios including biogas, biomethane, bioethanol and biodiesel in different combinations. The life-cycle perspective used included GWP aspects of material and energy use, emissions during biorefining and management of residues, as well as substitution of fossil fuels according to the energy content of biofuels. All of the six FW biorefineries revealed savings in GWP ranging from -19 to -138 kg CO2 eqv. per ton of wet FW. Compared to the reference scenario with only anaerobic digestion (S0), introducing biogas upgrading to biomethane (S1) improved the GWP by 37%; while producing bioethanol prior to anaerobic digestion (S2) decreased the savings in GWP. Introducing biodiesel prior to anaerobic digestion (S3) revealed around 60% improvement in GWP, while combining biodiesel and biomethane gave the largest improvement in GWP, 84% compared to the reference scenario, and the most fuels (around 2400 MJ in terms of 30 kg biodiesel and 35 kg biomethane per ton of wet FW). A sensitivity analysis revealed that the electricity production based on the biogas was an important parameter and appears in all refineries, while the results was less sensitive to the production of biodiesel and biomethane. The residue management contributed also to the GWP, but did not vary much among the biorefinery scenarios.

RevDate: 2021-05-28

Sun J, Im P, Bae Y, et al (2021)

Dataset of low global warming potential refrigerant refrigeration system for fault detection and diagnostics.

Scientific data, 8(1):144.

HVAC and refrigeration system fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) has attracted extensive studies for decades; however, FDD of supermarket refrigeration systems has not gained significant attention. Supermarkets consume around 50 kWh/ft2 of electricity annually. The biggest consumer of energy in a supermarket is its refrigeration system, which accounts for 40%-60% of its total electricity usage and is equivalent to about 2%-3% of the total energy consumed by commercial buildings in the United States. Also, the supermarket refrigeration system is one of the biggest consumers of refrigerants. Reducing refrigerant usage or using environmentally friendly alternatives can result in significant climate benefits. A challenge is the lack of publicly available data sets to benchmark the system performance and record the faulted performance. This paper identifies common faults of supermarket refrigeration systems and conducts an experimental study to collect the faulted performance data and analyze these faults. This work provides a foundation for future research on the development of FDD methods and field automated FDD implementation.

RevDate: 2021-05-26

Gregersen T, Doran R, Böhm G, et al (2021)

Outcome expectancies moderate the association between worry about climate change and personal energy-saving behaviors.

PloS one, 16(5):e0252105 pii:PONE-D-21-03059.

This paper explores whether efficacy beliefs can alter the relationship between worry about climate change and personal energy-saving behaviors, controlling for climate change beliefs and socio-demographics. For this purpose, we used data from 23 countries that participated in the European Social Survey Round 8 (N = 44 387). Worry about climate change, personal efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, and collective outcome expectancy were each associated with personal energy-saving behaviors concerning either energy curtailment or energy efficiency. The results further show that outcome expectancies moderate the association between worry about climate change and both types of energy behaviors. Worry was more strongly related to energy curtailment behaviors among those with high levels of personal and collective outcome expectancy. A similar pattern was found for energy efficiency behaviors, which were more strongly predicted by worry about climate change when combined with high levels of collective outcome expectancy. These findings are relevant for climate change communication, especially informational campaigns aiming to lower overall household energy use.

RevDate: 2021-05-26

Passaretti B (2021)

[Prevention for man, rehabilitation for the planet - a call to action for physicians. Two rules of individual prevention - eat less red meat and do more physical activity - should be enough to effectively counteract climate change].

Giornale italiano di cardiologia (2006), 22(6):452-455.

RevDate: 2021-05-26

Ewing DA, Purse BV, Cobbold CA, et al (2021)

A novel approach for predicting risk of vector-borne disease establishment in marginal temperate environments under climate change: West Nile virus in the UK.

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 18(178):20210049.

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as dengue, Zika, West Nile virus (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis, account for substantial human morbidity worldwide and have expanded their range into temperate regions in recent decades. Climate change has been proposed as a likely driver of past and future expansion, however, the complex ecology of host and vector populations and their interactions with each other, environmental variables and land-use changes makes understanding the likely impacts of climate change on VBDs challenging. We present an environmentally driven, stage-structured, host-vector mathematical modelling framework to address this challenge. We apply our framework to predict the risk of WNV outbreaks in current and future UK climates. WNV is a mosquito-borne arbovirus which has expanded its range in mainland Europe in recent years. We predict that, while risks will remain low in the coming two to three decades, the risk of WNV outbreaks in the UK will increase with projected temperature rises and outbreaks appear plausible in the latter half of this century. This risk will increase substantially if increased temperatures lead to increases in the length of the mosquito biting season or if European strains show higher replication at lower temperatures than North American strains.

RevDate: 2021-05-26

Feit B, Blüthgen N, Daouti E, et al (2021)

Landscape complexity promotes resilience of biological pest control to climate change.

Proceedings. Biological sciences, 288(1951):20210547.

Increased climate variability as a result of anthropogenic climate change can threaten the functioning of ecosystem services. However, diverse responses to climate change among species (response diversity) can provide ecosystems with resilience to this growing threat. Measuring and managing response diversity and resilience to global change are key ecological challenges. Here, we develop a novel index of climate resilience of ecosystem services, exemplified by the thermal resilience of predator communities providing biological pest control. Field assays revealed substantial differences in the temperature-dependent activity of predator species and indices of thermal resilience varied among predator communities occupying different fields. Predator assemblages with higher thermal resilience provided more stable pest control in microcosms where the temperature was experimentally varied, confirming that the index of thermal resilience developed here is linked to predator function. Importantly, complex landscapes containing a high number of non-crop habitat patches were more likely to contain predator communities with high thermal resilience. Thus, the conservation and restoration of non-crop habitats in agricultural landscapes-practices known to strengthen natural pest suppression under current conditions-will also confer resilience in ecosystem service provisioning to climate change.

RevDate: 2021-05-25

Wu X, Niklas KJ, S Sun (2021)

Climate change affects detritus decomposition rates by modifying arthropod performance and species interactions.

Current opinion in insect science pii:S2214-5745(21)00055-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change can indirectly affect ecosystem functions including detritus decomposition by modifying physiological traits, feeding behavior, and species interactions (including consumptive and non-consumptive top-down cascading effects) of decomposing arthropods. It is known that the effect of climate change on decomposition can be negative, neutral, or positive, and that it is highly context-dependent, depending on detritus quality, species identity, species interactions, and ecosystem type. Thus, ongoing climate change will undoubtedly influence the effects of arthropods on decomposition rates. More comprehensive studies are urgently needed to elucidate the effect of climate change on arthropod-detritus decomposers, particularly in the context of the decomposition of animal droppings and carrion.

RevDate: 2021-05-25

Marchioro CA, FS Krechemer (2021)

Prevention is better than cure: Integrating habitat suitability and invasion threat to assess global biological invasion risk by insect pests under climate change.

Pest management science [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Invasive alien species cause substantial impacts on ecosystem, economy, and public health. Therefore, identifying areas at risk of invasion and establishment is essential for the development and implementation of preventive measures. In this study, we integrated information on species habitat suitability, location of airports and ports, and invasion threat maps to assess global invasion risk under climate change using the cucurbit beetle, Diabrotica speciosa (Germar, 1824) as a model organism.

RESULTS: Suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa were estimated in several regions beyond its native range and comprised all continents. A decrease in the extent of suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa was predicted in different climate change scenarios, resulting in a reduction in invasion risk in most regions. However, regions such as western Europe and isolated areas in southern Asia and Oceania were predicted to face an increase in invasion risk under climate change. Invasion pathways via airports and ports were identified in all continents.

CONCLUSION: Our findings can be used in the development of phytosanitary measures against D. speciosa in high-risk areas. Furthermore, the approach used in this study provides a framework for estimating the global risk of invasion by insect pests and other terrestrial organisms in different climate change scenarios. This information can be used by policy makers to develop preventive measures against species with potential to invade and spread in regions beyond their native range. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2021-05-25

Pino-Cortés E, Díaz-Robles LA, Cubillos F, et al (2021)

The black carbon dispersion in the Southern Hemisphere and its transport and fate to Antarctica, an Anthropocene evidence for climate change policies.

The Science of the total environment, 778:146242.

Black carbon (BC) has been measured in Antarctica's air, and its global warming effect can potentially speed up the ice melting in the most solid water reservoir of the planet. However, the primary responsible sources are not well evidenced in this region. The dispersion of black carbon emissions from the Southern Hemisphere was conducting using atmospheric chemical transport model and we compared the results with satellite registries from March 1st to April 30th in 2014. The emission inventory considered the anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions from global datasets. The largest and most populated cities in Southern Hemisphere showed the higher emission of BC. As a result, the average daily concentrations of atmospheric BC were around 4 ng/m3 in most regions of Antarctica according to its pristine characteristics. We analyzed fifteen relevant sites in coastal zones of Antartica and some peaks registered by the satellite records were not replicated by model outputs and it was mainly associated with the lack of emissions. Finally, we made simulations in the same period without biomass burning emissions and we observed decreased concentrations of BC in the range of 20-50%. As a result, we show that the black carbon transportation from the continental land to the polar region took place in 17-24 days during the Austral summer and the biomass burning emissions were the primary source. Black Carbon deposition in Antarctica is not permanent, but the uncontrolled emissions from Southern Hemisphere can increase its transportation to the white continent and make its accumulation during the period when the weak polar vortex occurs.

RevDate: 2021-05-25

Andrade-Linares DR, Zistl-Schlingmann M, Foesel B, et al (2021)

Short term effects of climate change and intensification of management on the abundance of microbes driving nitrogen turnover in montane grassland soils.

The Science of the total environment, 780:146672.

Montane grasslands in Europe are exposed to increasing temperatures twice as fast as the global average. Changes in climatic conditions are possibly accompanied by an increase in land use intensity, caused by a prolongation of the vegetation period and the need to improve productivity. Therefore, the investigation of combined effects of climate change and land use intensity is needed to further implement agricultural management strategies. Here we present results from a study performed in the pre-alpine region of southern Germany, where intact plant-soil mesocosms from grasslands, were translocated along an altitudinal gradient, resulting in an increase in soil temperature (moderate treatment: +0.5 K; strong treatment: +1.9 K warming) during the experimental period. Additionally, we applied an extensive or intensive agricultural management (two vs. five times of mowing and slurry application) on the transplanted mesocosms. After an exposure of one year, we measured plant growth and soil properties and quantified abundances of soil microorganisms catalyzing key steps in the nitrogen (N) cycle. Our data indicate, significant interactions between climate change and management. For example, microbial biomass was significantly reduced (-47.7% and -49.8% for Cmic and Nmic respectively), which was further accompanied by lower abundances of N2-fixing bacteria (up to -89,3%), as well as ammonia oxidizing bacteria (-81.4%) under intensive management, whereas N-mineralizing bacteria increased in abundance (up to +139.8%) under extensive management. Surprisingly, the abundances of denitrifying bacteria as well as mean N2O emissions were not affected by the treatments. Overall, our data suggest pronounced shifts in the abundance of microbes driving the N cycle in soil as a result of combined climate change and land use intensification already after a short simulation period of one year.

RevDate: 2021-05-25

Oliveira GC, Arruda DM, Fernandes Filho EI, et al (2021)

Soil predictors are crucial for modelling vegetation distribution and its responses to climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 780:146680.

Bioclimatic envelope models have been extensively used to predict the vegetation dynamics in response to climate changes. However, they are prone to the uncertainties arising from General Circulation Models (GCMs), classification algorithms and predictors, with low-resolution results and little detail at the regional level. Novel research has focused on the improvement of these models through a combination of climate and soil predictors to enhance ecological consistency. In this framework, we aimed to apply a joint edaphoclimatic envelope to predict the current and future vegetation distribution in the semiarid region of Brazil, which encompasses several classes of vegetation in response to the significant environmental heterogeneity. We employed a variety of machine learning algorithms and GCMs under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in 1 km resolution. The combination of climate and soil predictors resulted in higher detail at landscape-scale and better distinction of vegetations with overlapping climatic niches. In forecasts, soil predictors imposed a buffer effect on vegetation dynamics as they reduced shifts driven solely by climatic drift. Our results with the edaphoclimatic approach pointed to an expansion of the dry Caatinga vegetation, ranging from an average of 16% to 24% on RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The shift in environmental suitability from forest to open and dry vegetation implies a major loss to biodiversity, as well as compromising the provision of ecosystem services important for maintaining the economy and livelihoods of the world's largest semiarid population. Predicting the most susceptible regions to future climate change is the first step in developing strategies to mitigate impacts in these areas.

RevDate: 2021-05-24

Chang AY, Barry M, RA Harrington (2021)

The Need to Expand the Framework of Environmental Determinants of Cardiovascular Health From Climate Change to Planetary Health: Trial by Wildfire.

Circulation, 143(21):2029-2031.

RevDate: 2021-05-24

Barbour MA, JP Gibert (2021)

Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

1. Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities, and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales. 2. We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population-level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E), and gene-by-environment (GxE) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population-level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems. 3. We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and GxE) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E, and GxE phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose. 4. By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.

RevDate: 2021-05-24

Talukder B, van Loon GW, Hipel KW, et al (2021)

Health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers.

One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 13:100258 pii:S2352-7714(21)00048-3.

The health of smallholder farmers is crucial for ensuring food and nutritional security for two billion people. However, their health is in jeopardy for several reasons including challenges from climate change impacts. Using a narrative literature review supported by field observations and informal interviews with key informants in India, Bangladesh and Malawi, this paper identifies and discusses the health impacts of climate change under four categories: (i) communicable diseases, (ii) non-communicable diseases, (iii) mental health, and (iv) occupational health, safety and other health issues. The health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers will hamper the realization of many of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and a series of recommendations are made to regional and country governments to address the increasing health impacts of accelerating climate change among smallholder farmers.

RevDate: 2021-05-24

Canning AD, NJ Waltham (2021)

Ecological impact assessment of climate change and habitat loss on wetland vertebrate assemblages of the Great Barrier Reef catchment and the influence of survey bias.

Ecology and evolution, 11(10):5244-5254 pii:ECE37412.

Wetlands are among the most vulnerable ecosystems, stressed by habitat loss and degradation from expanding and intensifying agricultural and urban areas. Climate change will exacerbate the impacts of habitat loss by altering temperature and rainfall patterns. Wetlands within Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchment are not different, stressed by extensive cropping, urban expansion, and alteration for grazing. Understanding how stressors affect wildlife is essential for the effective management of biodiversity values and minimizing unintended consequences when trading off the multiple values wetlands support. Impact assessment is difficult, often relying on an aggregation of ad hoc observations that are spatially biased toward easily accessible areas, rather than systematic and randomized surveys. Using a large aggregate database of ad hoc observations, this study aimed to examine the influence of urban proximity on machine-learning models predicting taxonomic richness and assemblage turnover, relative to other habitat, landscape, and climate variables, for vertebrates dwelling in the wetlands of the GBR catchment. The distance from the nearest city was, by substantial margins, the most influential factor in predicting the richness and assemblage turnover of all vertebrate groups, except fish. Richness and assemblage turnover was predicted to be greatest nearest the main urban centers. The extent of various wetland habitats was highly influential in predicting the richness of all groups, while climate (predominately the rainfall in the wettest quarter) was highly influential in predicting assemblage turnover for all groups. Bias of survey records toward urban centers strongly influenced our ability to model wetland-affiliated vertebrates and may obscure our understanding of how vertebrates respond to habitat loss and climate change. This reinforces the need for randomized and systematic surveys to supplement existing ad hoc surveys. We urge modelers in other jurisdictions to better portray the potential influence of survey biases when modeling species distributions.

RevDate: 2021-05-24

Reyne M, McGowan NE, Flanagan J, et al (2021)

Will predicted positive effects of climate change be enough to reverse declines of the regionally Endangered Natterjack toad in Ireland?.

Ecology and evolution, 11(10):5049-5064 pii:ECE37362.

The global amphibian crisis is driven by a range of stressors including disease, habitat loss, and environmental contamination. The role of climate change remains poorly studied and is likely to influence environmental suitability, ranges, reproduction, and phenology. This study aimed to characterize the bioclimatic-habitat niche space of the Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) throughout its European range and to assess the impact of climate on the toad's environmental suitability and breeding behavior in Ireland, where declines in recent decades have resulted in it being regionally Red-Listed as Endangered. To address these questions, we first identified which climate variables best predict the current bioclimatic niche, fecundity (number of eggs deposit), and phenology. We then used future climate projections for two time periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to predict how the species range, fecundity, and phenology would change. The European range of the species was found to be limited by winter temperatures while its bioclimatic niche varied markedly throughout its range. Species distribution models suggested projected climate change will increase environmental suitability for the species throughout its range, including Ireland, but most notably in Scandinavia and the Baltic. Fecundity in Ireland was greatest during the cool temperatures of spring and after wet winters associated with ephemeral breeding pool availability. Warm, dry summers in the preceding year influenced fecundity the following spring indicative of carryover effects. Initiation of spawning was driven by spring temperatures, not rainfall. Projections suggested future climate change may increase fecundity in Ireland while spawning may commence earlier throughout the 21st century especially under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). Despite recent range contraction and population declines due to habitat deterioration, the Natterjack toad, if subject to a suitable species conservation strategy, has the potential to be a climate change winner, notwithstanding unpredictable habitat and land-use change, sea-level rise inducing coastal erosion, changes in invertebrate prey abundance, and disease.

RevDate: 2021-05-24

Smith TB, Fuller TL, Zhen Y, et al (2021)

Genomic vulnerability and socio-economic threats under climate change in an African rainforest bird.

Evolutionary applications, 14(5):1239-1247 pii:EVA13193.

Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype-environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest-savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species-specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.

RevDate: 2021-05-24

Hackley DM (2021)

Climate Change and Oral Health.

International dental journal, 71(3):173-177.

RevDate: 2021-05-23

Collados-Lara AJ, Pardo-Igúzquiza E, D Pulido-Velazquez (2021)

Assessing the impact of climate change - and its uncertainty - on snow cover areas by using cellular automata models and stochastic weather generators.

The Science of the total environment, 788:147776 pii:S0048-9697(21)02847-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change will modify the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources in the future. Snow availability in alpine systems plays an important role for water dependent ecosystems, water demand supply, tourism, and hydropower. The assessment of the impact of climate change (and its uncertainty) on snow is a key subject in determining suitable adaptation strategies in these systems. In this paper, we propose a new methodology for assessing the impact of climate change on snow cover areas (SCAs). We have developed the Monte Carlo method analysis to combine several approaches to generate multiple input series and propagate them within a previously calibrated SCA cellular automata model. This generates potential future local scenarios from regional climate models. These scenarios are used to generate multiple series by using a stochastic weather generator. The methodology also includes an approach to correct the outputs bias of the stochastic weather generators when it is needed. Finally, the historical and the corrected multiple future weather series are used to simulate the impact on the SCA by using a cellular automata model. It is a novel approach that allows us to quantify the impact and uncertainty of climate change on the SCA. The methodology has been applied to the Sierra Nevada (southern Spain), which is the most southern alpine mountain range in Europe. In the horizon 2071-2100, under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, we estimate mean reductions of SCA that will move from 42 to 66% from December to February. The reductions are higher for the rest of the year (from March to May reductions of between 47 and 95% and from September to November reductions of between 54 and 100%). These SCA changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of snow of around 400 m.

RevDate: 2021-05-23

Aliyari F, Bailey RT, M Arabi (2021)

Appraising climate change impacts on future water resources and agricultural productivity in agro-urban river basins.

The Science of the total environment, 788:147717 pii:S0048-9697(21)02788-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change can have an adverse effect on agricultural productivity and water availability in semi-arid regions, as changes in surface water availability lead to groundwater depletion and resultant losses in crop yield. These inter-relationships necessitate an integrated management approach for surface water, groundwater, and crop yield as a holistic system. This study quantifies the future availability of surface water and groundwater and associated crop production in a large semi-arid agro-urban river basin in which agricultural irrigation is a leader consumer of water. The region of study is the South Platte River Basin (72,000 km2), Colorado, USA. The coupled SWAT-MODFLOW modeling code is used as the hydrologic simulator and forced with five different CMIP5 climate models downscaled by Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), each for two climate scenarios, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for 1980-2100. The hydrologic model accounts for surface runoff, soil lateral flow, groundwater flow, groundwater-surface water interactions, irrigation from surface water and groundwater, and crop yield on a per-field basis. In all climate models and emission scenarios, an increase of 3 to 5 °C in annual average temperature is projected. Whereas, variation in the projected precipitation depends on topography and distances from mountains. Based on the results of this study, the worst-case climate model in the basin is IPSL-CM5A-MR-8.5. Under this climate scenario, for a 1 °C increase in temperature and the 1.3% reduction in annual precipitation, the basin will experience an 8.5% decrease in stream discharge, 2-5% decline in groundwater storage, and 11% reduction in crop yield. These results indicate the significant effect of climate change on water and food resources of a large river basin, pointing to the need for immediate implementation of conservation practices.

RevDate: 2021-05-22

Hu ZM, Zhang QS, Zhang J, et al (2021)

Intraspecific genetic variation matters when predicting seagrass distribution under climate change.

Molecular ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Seagrasses play a vital role in structuring coastal marine ecosystems, but their distributional range and genetic diversity have declined rapidly over the past decades. In order to improve conservation of seagrass species, it is important to predict how climate change may impact their ranges. Such predictions are typically made with correlative species distribution models (SDMs), which can estimate a species' potential distribution under present and future climatic scenarios given species' presence data and climatic predictor variables. However, these models are typically constructed with species-level data, and thus ignore intraspecific genetic variability, which can give rise to populations with adaptations to heterogeneous climatic conditions. Here, we explore the link between intraspecific adaptation and niche differentiation in Thalassia hemprichii, a seagrass broadly distributed in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and a crucial provider of habitat for numerous marine species. By retrieving and re-analyzing microsatellite data from previous studies, we delimited two distinct phylogeographical lineages within the nominal species and found an intermediate level of differentiation in their multidimensional environmental niches, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. We then compared projections of the species' habitat suitability under climate change scenarios using species-level and lineage-level SDMs. In the Central Tropical Indo-Pacific region, models for both levels predicted considerable range contraction in the future, but the lineage-level models predicted more severe habitat loss. Importantly, the two modelling approaches predicted opposite patterns of habitat change in the Western Tropical Indo-Pacific region. Our results highlight the necessity of conserving distinct populations and genetic pools to avoid regional extinction due to climate change and have important implications for guiding future management of seagrasses.

RevDate: 2021-05-21

Vranken S, Wernberg T, Scheben A, et al (2021)

Genotype-environment mismatch of kelp forests under climate change.

Molecular ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is increasingly impacting ecosystems globally. Understanding adaptive genetic diversity and whether it will keep pace with projected climatic change is necessary to assess species' vulnerability and design efficient mitigation strategies such as assisted adaptation. Kelp forests are the foundations of temperate reefs globally but are declining in many regions due to climate stress. A lack of knowledge of kelps' adaptive genetic diversity hinders assessment of vulnerability under extant and future climates. Using 4245 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we characterised patterns of neutral and putative adaptive genetic diversity for the dominant kelp in the southern hemisphere (Ecklonia radiata) from ~1000 km coastline off Western Australia. Strong population structure and isolation-by-distance was underpinned by significant signatures of selection related to temperature and light. Gradient forest analysis of temperature-linked SNPs under selection revealed a strong association with mean annual temperature range suggesting adaptation to local thermal environments. Critically, modelling revealed that predicted climate-mediated temperature changes will likely result in high genomic vulnerability via a mismatch between current and future predicted genotype-environment relationships such that kelp forests off Western Australia will need to significantly adapt to keep pace with projected climate change. Proactive management techniques such as assisted adaptation to boost resilience may be required to secure the future of these kelp forests and the immense ecological and economic values they support.

RevDate: 2021-05-21

Beltrán I, Herculano-Houzel S, Sinervo B, et al (2021)

Are ectotherm brains vulnerable to global warming?.

Trends in ecology & evolution pii:S0169-5347(21)00123-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Elevated temperatures during development affect a wide range of traits in ectotherms. Less well understood is the impact of global warming on brain development, which has only rarely been studied experimentally. Here, we evaluate current progress in the field and search for common response patterns among ectotherm groups. Evidence suggests that temperature may have a positive effect on neuronal activity and growth in developing brains, but only up to a threshold, above which temperature is detrimental to neuron development. These responses appear to be taxon dependent but this assumption may be due to a paucity of data for some taxonomic groups. We provide a framework with which to advance this highly promising field in the future.

RevDate: 2021-05-21

Sampaio F, Krechemer FS, CA Marchioro (2021)

The hotter the better? Climate change and voltinism of Spodoptera eridania estimated with different methods.

Journal of thermal biology, 98:102946.

Substantial increases in global temperature are projected for the coming decades due to climate change. Considering that temperature has a strong influence on insect voltinism (i.e., number of generations per year), climate change may affect the population growth of insects, with potential consequences for food production. The southern armyworm, Spodoptera eridania, is a multivoltine species native to the American tropics that causes severe damage to several crops. In this context, this study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the voltinism of S. eridania in southern Brazil. Current and future daily temperature data were combined with non-linear and degree-day models to estimate the voltinism of this pest. Under current climate conditions, the voltinism of S. eridania ranged from 2.9 to 9.2 generations, with fewer cohorts in colder regions and more in warmer ones. A higher number of generations was predicted for the future climate scenarios evaluated, reaching up to 12.1 annual generations in certain regions by 2070. Most of the variation in voltinism was explained by location (87.7%) and by the interaction between location and mathematical model (3.0%). The degree-day model estimated an increase in the number of generations in the entire study area, while the non-linear model predicted a decrease in voltinism in the warmer regions under future climate change scenarios. Given these differences between the predictions provided by degree-day and non-linear models, the selection of the best method to be used in climate change studies should be carried out carefully, considering how species respond to temperature. A considerable increase in the number of generations of S. eridania was projected for most of the study area under the climate change scenarios evaluated, suggesting a possible rise in pest incidence levels in the coming decades.

RevDate: 2021-05-20

Kouis P, Psistaki K, Yiallouros G, et al (2021)

Heat-related mortality under climate change and the impact of adaptation through air conditioning: A case study from Thessaloniki, Greece.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(21)00579-X [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is expected to increase heat-related mortality across the world. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) studies are used to quantify the impact of higher temperatures, taking into account the effect of population adaptation. Although air-conditioning (AC) is one of the main drivers of technological adaptation to heat, the health impacts associated with AC-induced air pollution have not been examined in detail. This study uses the city of Thessaloniki, Greece as a case study and aims to estimate the future heat-related mortality, the residential cooling demand, and the adaptation trade-off between averted heat-related and increased air pollution cardiorespiratory mortality. Using temperature and population projections under different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CIMP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs), a HIA model was developed for the future heat and air pollution cardiorespiratory mortality. Counterfactual scenarios of either black carbon (BC) or natural gas (NG) being the fuel source for electricity generation were included in the HIA. The results indicate that the heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality in Thessaloniki will increase and the excess of annual heat-related deaths in 2080-2099 will range from 2.4 (95% CI: 0.0-20.9) under SSP1-2.6 to 433.7 (95% CI: 66.9-1070) under SSP5-8.5. Population adaptation will attenuate the heat-related mortality, although the latter may be counterbalanced by the higher air pollution-related mortality due to increased AC, especially under moderate SSP scenarios and coal-fired power plants. Future studies examining the health effects of warmer temperatures need to account for the impact of both adaptation and increased penetration and use of AC.

RevDate: 2021-05-20

de Moraes KF, Santos MPD, Gonçalves GSR, et al (2021)

Correction: Climate change and bird extinctions in the Amazon.

PloS one, 16(5):e0252260 pii:PONE-D-21-16007.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236103.].

RevDate: 2021-05-20

Sulser TB, Beach RH, Wiebe KD, et al (2021)

Disability-adjusted life years due to chronic and hidden hunger under food system evolution with climate change and adaptation to 2050.

The American journal of clinical nutrition pii:6277981 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Climate change presents an increasing challenge for food-nutrition security. Nutrition metrics calculated from quantitative food system projections can help focus policy actions.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate future chronic and hidden hunger disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)-due to protein-energy undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, respectively-using food systems projections to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and agricultural sector investment for adaptation.

METHODS: We use a novel combination of a chronic and hidden hunger DALY estimation procedure and food system projections from quantitative foresight modeling to assess DALYs under alternative agricultural sector scenarios to midcentury.

RESULTS: Total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs are projected to increase globally out to 2050-by over 30 million compared with 2010-even without climate change. Climate change increases total DALY change between 2010 and 2050 by nearly 10% compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show promise for offsetting these impacts. With investments, DALY incidence due to chronic and hidden hunger is projected to decrease globally in 2050 by 0.24 and 0.56 per 1000 capita, respectively. Total global DALYs will still rise because projected population growth will outpace the rate reduction, especially in Africa south of the Sahara. However, projections also show important regional reductions in total DALYs due to chronic (13.9 million in South Asia, 4.3 million in East Asia and the Pacific) and hidden hunger (7.5 million in East Asia and the Pacific) with investments.

CONCLUSIONS: Food system projections to 2050 show a decreasing DALY incidence from both chronic and hidden hunger. Population growth is projected to outpace these improvements and lead to increasing total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs globally, concentrated in Africa south of the Sahara. Climate change increases per-capita chronic and hidden hunger DALY incidence compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show the potential to offset the climate impact on DALYs.

RevDate: 2021-05-20

Colbert CY, French JC, Brateanu A, et al (2021)

An Examination of the Intersection of Climate Change, the Physician Specialty Workforce, and Graduate Medical Education in the U.S.

Teaching and learning in medicine [Epub ahead of print].

ISSUE: As U.S. healthcare systems plan for future physician workforce needs, the systemic impacts of climate change, a worldwide environmental and health crisis, have not been factored in. The current focus on increasing the number of trained physicians and optimizing efficiencies in healthcare delivery may be insufficient. Graduate medical education (GME) priorities and training should be considered in order to prepare a climate-educated physician workforce. Evidence: We used a holistic lens to explore the available literature regarding the intersection of future physician workforce needs, GME program priorities, and resident education within the larger context of climate change. Our interinstitutional, transdisciplinary team brought perspectives from their own fields, including climate science, climate and health research, and medical education to provide recommendations for building a climate-educated physician workforce. Implications: Acknowledging and preparing for the effects of climate change on the physician workforce will require identification of workforce gaps, changes to GME program priorities, and education of trainees on the health and societal impacts of climate change. Alignment of GME training with workforce considerations and climate action and adaptation initiatives will be critical in ensuring the U.S. has a climate-educated physician workforce capable of addressing health and healthcare system challenges. This article offers a number of recommendations for physician workforce priorities, resident education, and system-level changes to better prepare for the health and health system impacts of climate change.

RevDate: 2021-05-19

Campbell CS, Adams CE, Bean CW, et al (2021)

Evolvability under climate change: Bone development and shape plasticity are heritable and correspond with performance in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus).

Evolution & development [Epub ahead of print].

Environmental conditions can impact the development of phenotypes and in turn the performance of individuals. Climate change, therefore, provides a pressing need to extend our understanding of how temperature will influence phenotypic variation. To address this, we assessed the impact of increased temperatures on ecologically significant phenotypic traits in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus). We raised Arctic charr at 5°C and 9°C to simulate a predicted climate change scenario and examined temperature-induced variation in ossification, bone metabolism, skeletal morphology, and escape response. Fish reared at 9°C exhibited less cartilage and bone development at the same developmental stage, but also higher bone metabolism in localized regions. The higher temperature treatment also resulted in significant differences in craniofacial morphology, changes in the degree of variation, and fewer vertebrae. Both temperature regime and vertebral number affected escape response performance, with higher temperature leading to decreased latency. These findings demonstrate that climate change has the potential to impact development through multiple routes with the potential for plasticity and the release of cryptic genetic variation to have strong impacts on function through ecological performance and survival.

RevDate: 2021-05-19

Strauss BH, Orton PM, Bittermann K, et al (2021)

Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change.

Nature communications, 12(1):2720.

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B-$14.0B, 5th-95th percentiles) of Sandy's damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40-131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

RevDate: 2021-05-19

Karatayev VA, Vasconcelos VV, Lafuite AS, et al (2021)

A well-timed shift from local to global agreements accelerates climate change mitigation.

Nature communications, 12(1):2908.

Recent attempts at cooperating on climate change mitigation highlight the limited efficacy of large-scale negotiations, when commitment to mitigation is costly and initially rare. Deepening existing voluntary mitigation pledges could require more stringent, legally-binding agreements that currently remain untenable at the global scale. Building-blocks approaches promise greater success by localizing agreements to regions or few-nation summits, but risk slowing mitigation adoption globally. Here, we show that a well-timed policy shift from local to global legally-binding agreements can dramatically accelerate mitigation compared to using only local, only global, or both agreement types simultaneously. This highlights the scale-specific roles of mitigation incentives: local agreements promote and sustain mitigation commitments in early-adopting groups, after which global agreements rapidly draw in late-adopting groups. We conclude that focusing negotiations on local legally-binding agreements and, as these become common, a renewed pursuit of stringent, legally-binding world-wide agreements could best overcome many current challenges facing climate mitigation.

RevDate: 2021-05-18

da Silva CRB, Beaman JE, Dorey JB, et al (2020)

Climate change and invasive species: a physiological performance comparison of invasive and endemic bees in Fiji.

The Journal of experimental biology pii:267808 [Epub ahead of print].

Anthropogenic climate change and invasive species are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity, affecting the survival, fitness and distribution of many species around the globe. Invasive species are often expected to have broad thermal tolerances, be highly plastic, or have high adaptive potential when faced with novel environments. Tropical island ectotherms are expected to be vulnerable to climate change as they often have narrow thermal tolerances and limited plasticity. In Fiji, only one species of endemic bee, Homalictus fijiensis, is commonly found in the lowland regions, but two invasive bee species, Braunsapis puangensis and Ceratina dentipes, have recently been introduced to Fiji. These introduced species pollinate invasive plants and might compete with H. fijiensis and other native pollinators for resources. To test whether certain performance traits promote invasiveness of some species, and to determine which species are the most vulnerable to climate change, we compared the thermal tolerance, desiccation resistance, metabolic rate, and seasonal performance adjustments of endemic and invasive bees in Fiji. The two invasive species tended to be more resistant to thermal and desiccation stress than H. fijiensis, while H. fijiensis had greater capacity to adjust their CTMAX with season, and H. fijiensis females tended to have higher metabolic rates, than B. puangensis females. These findings provide mixed support for current hypotheses for the functional basis of the success of invasive species, however, we expect the invasive bees in Fiji to be more resilient to climate change due to their increased thermal tolerance and desiccation resistance.

RevDate: 2021-05-18

Wan JN, Mbari NJ, Wang SW, et al (2021)

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six endemic baobab species in Madagascar.

Plant diversity, 43(2):117-124.

Madagascar, a globally renowned biodiversity hotspot characterized by high rates of endemism, is one of the few remaining refugia for many plants and animal species. However, global climate change has greatly affected the natural ecosystem and endemic species living in Madagascar, and will likely continue to influence species distribution in the future. Madagascar is home to six endemic baobab (Adansonia spp., Bombacoideae [Malvaceae]) species (Adansonia grandidieri, A.suarezensis, A.madagascariensis, A.perrieri, A.rubrostipa, A. za), which are remarkable and endangered plants. This study aimed to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for each baobab species endemic to Madagascar and determine the effect that climate change will have on suitable baobab habitat by the years 2050 and 2070. The distribution was modeled using MaxEnt based on locality information of 245 occurrence sites of six species from both online database and our own field work. A total of seven climatic variables were used for the modeling process. The present distribution of all six Madagascar's baobabs was largely influenced by temperature-related factors. Although both expansion and contraction of suitable habitat are predicted for all species, loss of original suitable habitat is predicted to be extensive. For the most widespread Madagascar baobab, A. za, more than 40% of its original habitat is predicted to be lost because of climate change. Based on these findings, we recommend that areas predicted to contract in response to climate change should be designated key protection regions for baobab conservation.

RevDate: 2021-05-18

Asfaw A, Bantider A, Simane B, et al (2021)

Smallholder farmers' livelihood vulnerability to climate change-induced hazards: agroecology-based comparative analysis in Northcentral Ethiopia (Woleka Sub-basin).

Heliyon, 7(4):e06761.

Background: Due to its climate-sensitive agricultural system and low adaptive capacity of the subsistence farmers, Ethiopia is cited among the countries experiencing frequent drought and highly vulnerable to climate change associated impacts. Micro level vulnerability assessment, in the context of a changing climate, has a paramount significance in designing policies addressing climate change induced effects. Assessing vulnerability to climate change is important for defining the risks posed by the change and it provides a starting point for the determination of effective means of promoting remedial actions to minimize impacts by supporting coping strategies and facilitating adaptation options targeted at specific context.

Methods: We employed cross-sectional survey research design has to examine the extent of livelihood vulnerability of 384 randomly selected smallholder farmers from three agroecologies which was supplemented by interviews. Livelihood vulnerability index, using integrated indicator approaches and principal component analysis, has been used. Chi-square test, F-test and t-test were used to examine association and mean differences among three agroecologies and between cropping types in terms of different attributes.

Findings: Overall, smallholder farmers living in kolla agroecology were found to be the most vulnerable to climate change induced hazards followed by dega. In terms of type of cropping season, belg dominated areas were relatively more vulnerable than those residing in meher dominated areas. Different biophysical and socio-economic attributes contributed their own role both for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity differences among smallholder farmers farming in different agroecologies and different types of cropping seasons.

Conclusion: We recommend that interventions undertaken to lessen the impact of climate change should be targeted to the factors which contribute to high extent of sensitivity and for those which could enhance the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers. Specifically, we suggest that resilience-building adaptation interventions like expansion of small-scale irrigation, accessing of microfinance service, early warning and timely information, extension support, non-farm sources of income, training and skill development, expansion of infrastructure have to be promoted thereby increase the adaptive capacity of subsistence rainfed-dependent farmers to withstand the vagaries of the climate variability risk. Moreover, disparities in the same agroecology have to be addressed properly in livelihood vulnerability discourse.

RevDate: 2021-05-18

Carter JM, Koman PD, Cameron L, et al (2021)

Assessing perceptions and priorities for health impacts of climate change within local Michigan health departments.

Journal of environmental studies and sciences [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change affects Michigan's public health in several primary ways, including increased incidences of vector-borne, waterborne, heat-related, and respiratory illness. Because local health departments (LHDs) play a central role in surveillance and preventative health services, they are among the first institutions to contend with the local impacts of climate change. To assess current perceptions among Michigan public health officials, an online survey was conducted in partnership with the Michigan Association for Local Public Health (MALPH). Most of the Michigan respondents (62%, n = 34) agreed that their jurisdictions have experienced climate change in the last 20 years, and 77% agreed that climate change will impact their jurisdictions in the coming 20 years. However, only 35% (n = 34) of Michigan officials agreed that climate change is a priority in their departments. About one quarter (25%, n = 34) of Michigan LHD respondents did not know about the level of expertise of either the state and federal agencies, responsible for assisting them with information and programs related to climate change and health. Uncertainty regarding the resources available to them may hinder LHDs from developing necessary preparedness, so meeting this need could bolster the public health response to climate change.

Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13412-021-00679-0.

RevDate: 2021-05-18

Chavardès RD, Gennaretti F, Grondin P, et al (2021)

Role of Mixed-Species Stands in Attenuating the Vulnerability of Boreal Forests to Climate Change and Insect Epidemics.

Frontiers in plant science, 12:658880.

We investigated whether stand species mixture can attenuate the vulnerability of eastern Canada's boreal forests to climate change and insect epidemics. For this, we focused on two dominant boreal species, black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), in stands dominated by black spruce or trembling aspen ("pure stands"), and mixed stands (M) composed of both species within a 36 km2 study area in the Nord-du-Québec region. For each species in each stand composition type, we tested climate-growth relations and assessed the impacts on growth by recorded insect epidemics of a black spruce defoliator, the spruce budworm (SBW) [Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)], and a trembling aspen defoliator, the forest tent caterpillar (FTC; Malacosoma disstria Hübn.). We implemented linear models in a Bayesian framework to explain baseline and long-term trends in tree growth for each species according to stand composition type and to differentiate the influences of climate and insect epidemics on tree growth. Overall, we found climate vulnerability was lower for black spruce in mixed stands than in pure stands, while trembling aspen was less sensitive to climate than spruce, and aspen did not present differences in responses based on stand mixture. We did not find any reduction of vulnerability for mixed stands to insect epidemics in the host species, but the non-host species in mixed stands could respond positively to epidemics affecting the host species, thus contributing to stabilize ecosystem-scale growth over time. Our findings partially support boreal forest management strategies including stand species mixture to foster forests that are resilient to climate change and insect epidemics.

RevDate: 2021-05-18

Matallana-Ramirez LP, Whetten RW, Sanchez GM, et al (2021)

Breeding for Climate Change Resilience: A Case Study of Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda L.) in North America.

Frontiers in plant science, 12:606908.

Earth's atmosphere is warming and the effects of climate change are becoming evident. A key observation is that both the average levels and the variability of temperature and precipitation are changing. Information and data from new technologies are developing in parallel to provide multidisciplinary opportunities to address and overcome the consequences of these changes in forest ecosystems. Changes in temperature and water availability impose multidimensional environmental constraints that trigger changes from the molecular to the forest stand level. These can represent a threat for the normal development of the tree from early seedling recruitment to adulthood both through direct mortality, and by increasing susceptibility to pathogens, insect attack, and fire damage. This review summarizes the strengths and shortcomings of previous work in the areas of genetic variation related to cold and drought stress in forest species with particular emphasis on loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.), the most-planted tree species in North America. We describe and discuss the implementation of management and breeding strategies to increase resilience and adaptation, and discuss how new technologies in the areas of engineering and genomics are shaping the future of phenotype-genotype studies. Lessons learned from the study of species important in intensively-managed forest ecosystems may also prove to be of value in helping less-intensively managed forest ecosystems adapt to climate change, thereby increasing the sustainability and resilience of forestlands for the future.

RevDate: 2021-05-16

Brick C, Bosshard A, L Whitmarsh (2021)

Motivation and climate change: A review.

Current opinion in psychology, 42:82-88 pii:S2352-250X(21)00041-5 [Epub ahead of print].

This paper reviews motivations people experience about climate change and integrates recent findings into the BUCkET model of core social goals. We argue that environmentalism is not the main cause of thoughts or behaviors about climate change. Rather, the evolved social needs for Belongingness, Understanding, Control, self-Enhancement, and Trust are more practical intervention targets than the attempt to create environmentalist beliefs or identities. We used database searches to identify the key research areas on motivation and climate change and synthesized articles into the BUCkET model. This reveals some limiting assumptions of previous approaches and suggests the effectiveness of targeting existing motives rather than fostering new values or worldviews.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )